Ndakakura ndichironga ramangwana rangu, ndichizvibvunza kuti ndeipi koreji yandaizopinda, yekudzidza, uye gare gare, kwandinoshanda, ndedzipi zvinyorwa zvekunyora, bhuku rangu rinotevera ringave ripi, mari yekubhadhara imba, uye nderupi rwendo rwekukwira makomo. ungada kutora chinotevera.
Zvino, ndinoshamisika nezveramangwana repasi redu. Pakushanya kuchangobva kuitika nemuzukuru wangu ane makore masere uye vazukuru vangu vane makore gumi negumi nemaviri, ndakazvidzora kuti ndisavabvunza zvavaida kuita kana vakura, kana chero mibvunzo ine chekuita neramangwana yandaimboita. ndizvibvunze. Ndakadaro nokuti chokwadi chechizvarwa chavo chingava chokuti mibvunzo yakaita sekuti vachashanda ingatsiviwa nei: Vachawanepi mvura yavo yakachena? Ndechipi chikafu chichavepo? Uye ndeapi mativi enyika yavo nepasi rose acharamba achigarwa?
Chikonzero, chokwadi, kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze - uye kuti zvingave zvakaipa zvakadii zvakauya kwandiri muzhizha ra2010. Ndakanga ndichikwira Mount Rainier muWashington State, ndichitora nzira imwechete yandakanga ndashandisa mukukwira kwa1994. Panzvimbo pekuona matipi esimbi emacrampons akasungirirwa bhutsu dzangu achirovera muaizi yeaizi yeaizi, ndaiziva kuti, pakakwirira, vaive vachiri kukwesha padombo regomo rinoputika. Manheru kusati kwaedza, pfarivari dzakapfura kubva pamatanho angu.
Nzira yainge yachinja zvekuti zvakatondishamisa. Ndakambomira pane imwe nguva kuti nditarise pasi pemawere pamawere echando aigezeswa nechiedza chemwedzi chakapfava 100 metres pazasi. Zvakanditorera mweya wekufema pandakaona kuti ndakanga ndakatarisa kwaive kwasara pane hombe yechando yandakanga ndakwira muna 1994, iyo - panzvimbo iyi chaiyo - yakanga yasiya macrampons aya achipwanyika nechando. Ndakamira munzeve dzangu, ndichifemereka mhepo isingawande kudaro, pfungwa dzangu dzichishanda nesimba kuti ndibate dhirama raikonzerwa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze rakange raitika kubva pandakapedzisira panzvimbo iyoyo.
Ini handisati ndadzokera kuMount Rainier kuti ndione kuti chando chakadzika sei mumakore mashoma apfuura, asi nguva pfupi yadarika ndakatsvaga kuti ndione kuti zvingangove zvakaipa sei. Ndakawana boka revasayendisiti vakakomba - kwete ruzhinji rwemasayendisiti ezvemamiriro ekunze neimwe nzira, asi vanofunga kunze - vanofunga kuti hazvina kungoita, zvakaipa chaizvo; injodzi. Vamwe vavo vanotofunga kuti, kana rekodhi iri kuramba ichiburitswa yecarbon dioxide mumhepo, nekuda kwekupisa kwemafuta ezvisaririra, inoyamurwa uye inotsigirwa nekuburitswa kukuru kwemethane, rinotonyanya kusimba gasi regreenhouse, hupenyu sezvatinoziva isu vanhu. zvinogona kunge zviri kumagumo panyika ino. Ivo vanotya kuti isu tinogona kunge tiri - uye nepamusoro - shanduko yemamiriro ekunze inokwira bvudzi nekukurumidza.
Funga iwe, iyo inonyanya kuchengetedza mamiriro ekunze esainzi mhando, inomiririrwa neane mukurumbira Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), pendi mamiriro anongorevesa zvishoma kusimudza bvudzi, asi ngatipedze nguva shoma, sezvandaita, nezvingaite. kunzi masayendisiti ari kumucheto uye unzwe zvavanoda kutaura.
โHatina Kumbova Kuno SeZvisikwaโ
โIsu semhuka hatina kumbosangana nazvo 400 zvikamu pamiriyoni imwe chete yecarbon dioxide mumhepo,โ Guy McPherson, purofesa akasiya basa reevolutionary biology, zviwanikwa, uye ecology paUniversity yeArizona uye nyanzvi yekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kwemakore makumi maviri nemashanu, akandiudza. "Hatina kumbove panyika isina aizi yeArctic, uye ticharova avhareji ye25 ppmโฆ mukati memakore mashoma anotevera. Panguva iyoyo, tichaonawo kuparara kweaizi yeArctic muchirimoโฆ Nyika ino haisati yasangana neArctic isina aizi kwemakore angangoita mamirioni matatu apfuura.โ
Kune vasina kudzidza, mumashoko akareruka, hezvino izvo zvinorehwa neArctic isina ice kana zvasvika pakupisa pasi: kubvisa inofungidzira ice chivharo pamvura yeArctic, mwaranzi yezuva yaizotorwa, isingaratidzirwe, neArctic Ocean. Izvozvo zvaizopisa mvura idzodzo, uye nokudaro pasi, mberi. Mhedzisiro iyi ine mukana wekushandura mamiriro ekunze epasi rose, kusiyanisa mafambiro emhepo, uye kunyange rimwe zuva zvingango shandura nzvimbo yejet stream. Polar jet nzizi dziri kukurumidza kuyerera nzizi dzemhepo dzakamira kumusoro mumhepo yePasi inosundira mhepo inotonhora uye inodziya kutenderedza, ichiita basa rakakosha mukuona mamiriro ekunze epasi redu.
McPherson, uyo anochengetedza Blog Nature Bats Last, akawedzera kuti, โHatina kumbosvika pano semhuka uye zvinorehwa zvacho zvakaoma uye zvakadzama kumarudzi edu nepasi rose rinorarama.โ
Nepo maonero ake akanyanyisa kupfuura aya eruzhinji rwesainzi, iyo inoona njodzi yechokwadi makumi emakore akawanda mune ramangwana redu, haasi iye ega musayendisiti anotaura zvinonetsa zvakadaro. Muzvinafundo Peter Wadhams, nyanzvi inotungamira yeArctic paCambridge University, anga achiyera chando cheArctic kwemakore makumi mana, uye zvaakawana zvinosimbisa kutya kwaMcPherson. "Kudonha kweaizi vhoriyamu kuri kukurumidza zvekuti kuchatisvitsa pazero nekukurumidza," Wadhams Akaudzwa mutori wenhau. Maererano nemashoko azvino, anofungidzira "ne95% kuvimba" kuti Arctic ichava nechando zvachose-isina mazhizha ne2018. (Vatsvakurudzi veUS Navy vane akafanotaura Arctic isina aizi kunyangwe kare - panosvika 2016.)
Musayendisiti weBritain John Nissen, sachigaro weArctic Methane Emergency Group (iyo Wadhams inhengo), inoratidza kuti kana kurasikirwa nechando mugungwa rezhizha kukapfuura โpanzvimbo isingachadzokeri,โ uye โnjodzi yeArctic methane feedbacksโ ikapinda, tichange tave โmunjodzi yepanyika.โ
McPherson, Wadham, naNissen vanomiririra chidimbu chekunyunguduka kwechando chemasayendisiti ave kutinyevera nezvenjodzi iri kuuya, kunyanya inosanganisira kuburitswa kweArctic methane. Muchadenga, methane igasi regreenhouse iro, pachiyero chenguva pfupi-pfupi, rinoparadza zvakanyanya kupfuura carbon dioxide (CO2). Ine simba rakapetwa makumi maviri nenhatu seCO23 pamorekuru pazera remakore zana, ine simba rakapetwa ka2 kana zvasvika pakupisa pasi pamakore makumi maviri - uye Arctic permafrost, kumahombekombe uye kure, yakazara nezvinhu. โPasi pegungwa,โ anodaro Wadham, โpasi pemafrost, asi pari zvino pari kudziya uye kunyungudika. Iye zvino tiri kuona mapombi makuru emethane achitubwida muGungwa reSiberiaโฆ
Maererano neongororo ichangobva kubudiswa mu Nature Geoscience, methane yakapetwa kaviri sezvaimbofungwa iri kuburitswa kubva kuEast Siberian Arctic Shelf, nzvimbo ine mamiriyoni maviri emativi emakiromita kubva kumahombekombe eNorthern Siberia. Vatsvakurudzi varo vakaona kuti 17 teragrams (matani miriyoni imwe) yemethane iri kubudiswa mumhepo gore negore, asi tsvakurudzo ya2010 akawanikwa materagiramu manomwe chete akananga muchadenga.
Zuva rakatevera Nature Geoscience yakaburitsa chidzidzo chayo, boka revasayendisiti kubva kuHarvard nemamwe masangano anotungamira ezvidzidzo rakabudiswa report mu Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences zvichiratidza kuti huwandu hwemethane huri kuburitswa muUS zvese kubva mumafuta nemabasa ekurima hunogona kuva 50% huru pane yakambofungidzirwa uye 1.5 times yakakwirira kupfuura fungidziro yeEnvironmental Protection Agency.
Yakakura sei iyo inogona kuitika pasi rose methane kuvaka-up? Haasi masayendisiti ose funga kuti kutyisidzira nekukurumidza kana kutyisidzira kukuru kwatinosangana nako, asi Ira Leifer, sainzi wezvemuchadenga uye wemugungwa paYunivhesiti yeCalifornia, Santa Barbara, uye mumwe wevanyori veongororo ichangoburwa yeArctic Methane akandiratidza kuti "Permian. kutsakatika kukuru kwakaitika makore mamiriyoni 250 apfuura kune chokuita nemethane uye kunofungidzirwa kuti ndiko kwakaparira kutsakatika kwemarudzi akawanda ari panyika.โ Muchiitiko ichocho chokutsakatika, zvinofungidzirwa kuti 95% yezvipenyu zvose zvakatsakatika.
Iyo inozivikanwawo se "The Great Dying," yakakonzerwa nekuyerera kukuru kwelava munzvimbo yeSiberia zvakakonzera kuwedzera kwekushisa kwepasi rose kwemadhigirii matanhatu. Izvozvowo zvakakonzera kunyunguduka kwemethane yakaomeswa nechando pasi pemakungwa. Yakaburitswa mumhepo, yakaita kuti tembiricha iwedzere kukwira. Zvose izvi zvakaitika mumakore anoda kusvika 80,000 XNUMX.
Parizvino tiri pakati peizvo masayendisiti anofunga nezvekutsakatika kukuru kwechitanhatu munhoroondo yepuraneti, pakati pe150 ne200. howa iri kupera zuva nezuva, nhanho yakapetwa ka1,000 kupfuura mwero wekutsakatika kwe "zvakasikwa" kana "kumashure". Chiitiko ichi chinogona kutoenzaniswa ne, kana kutopfuura, kukurumidza uye kusimba kwekutsakatika kwePermian. Musiyano uri wekuti yedu inokonzerwa nevanhu, haisi kuzotora makore 80,000, yatora mazana emakore mashoma, uye ikozvino yave kuwedzera kukurumidza nenzira isiri-mutsara.
Zvinogoneka kuti, pamusoro pehuwandu hukuru hwekabhoni dhayokisaidhi kubva kumafuta efossil anoramba achipinda mumhepo. rekodhi mari pagore, kuwedzera kuburitswa kwemethane kunogona kuratidza kutanga kwerudzi rwemaitiro akatungamira kuKufa Kukuru. Mamwe masayendisiti anotya kuti mamiriro acho atove akakomba uye akawanda ega ega ega ega ega ega ega atove mukutamba zvekuti isu tiri mubishi rekukonzera kutsakatika kwedu. Zvakatoipa zvakadaro, vamwe vane chokwadi chekuti zvinogona kuitika nekukurumidza zvakanyanya kupfuura zvinotendwa zvinogoneka - kunyangwe mukati memakumi mashoma emakore anotevera.
Hofori Yakarara Inokurunga
Maererano NASA Chirevo chetsvakiridzo, "Is Sleeping Climate Giant Rising in the Arctic?": "Kupfuura mazana emakore, ivhu reArctic permafrost rakaunganidza zvitoro zvakakura zveorganic carbon - inofungidzirwa 1,400 kusvika 1,850 petagrams dzayo (petagram i2.2 trillion mapaundi, kana 1 bhiriyoni metric toni). Ndiyo inenge hafu yezvose zvinofungidzirwa organic carbon yakachengetwa muvhu rePasi. Kana tichienzanisa, anenge 350 petagrams ecarbon akabudiswa kubva mukutsva kwemafuta uye mabasa evanhu kubva muna 1850. Kabhoni iyi yakawanda inowanikwa muivhu repamusoro rinonyungudutswa mukati memamita gumi (10 mamita) kubva pamusoro."
Masayendisiti eNASA, pamwe nevamwe, vari kudzidza kuti Arctic permafrost - uye kabhoni yakachengetwa - inogona kunge isina chando zvachose sezvinoreva zita rayo. Sayenzi wekutsvagisa Charles Miller weNASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory ndiye muongorori mukuru weCarbon muArctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE), makore mashanu anotungamirwa neNASA mushandirapamwe wekudzidza kuti shanduko yemamiriro ekunze iri kukanganisa sei kutenderera kwekabhoni yeArctic. Akaudza NASA, "Ivhu rePermafrost riri kudziya nekukurumidza kupfuura tembiricha yemhepo yeArctic - inosvika 2.7 kusvika 4.5 madhigirii Fahrenheit (1.5 kusvika 2.5 madhigirii Celsius) mumakore makumi matatu apfuura. Sezvo kupisa kunobva pamusoro pePasi kunopinda mupermafrost, kunotyisidzira kuunganidza aya organic carbon reservoirs uye kuaburitsa mumhepo secarbon dioxide nemethane, zvichikanganisa carbon balance yeArctic uye kuwedzera zvakanyanya kudziya kwepasi.
Anotya zvinogona kuitika kana kunyungudika kwakazara kwepermafrost kukaitika. Sekutaura kwaanoita, "Kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kunogona kukonzeresa shanduko isingadzoke mukati mehupenyu hwedu, izvo zvinogona kukonzera shanduko nekukurumidza muPasi system izvo zvinoda kuchinjika nevanhu uye zvisikwa."
The ongororo yazvino yeNASA inosimbisa kuwanikwa kwekushanda uye kukura methane vents anosvika makiromita 150 mhiri. Mumwe musayendisiti ari pane imwe ngarava inonzvera munharaunda yacho akarondedzera ikoku sokutubuka kusvikira kure uko ziso rinogona kuona umo mvura yomugungwa inoratidzika sedziva guru re<em>seltzer. Pakati pezhizha ra2010 na2011, chokwadi, masayendisiti akawana kuti mukati megore methane vents chete 30 centimita kuyambuka yakanga yakura kiromita yakafara, 3,333% kuwedzera uye muenzaniso wekukurumidza kusiri mutsara uko zvikamu zve nyika iri kutarisana nekukanganiswa kwemamiriro ekunze.
Miller akaburitsa chimwe chiziviso chinokatyamadza: "Mamwe emethane necarbon dioxide yatakayera yave yakakura, uye tiri kuona maitiro akasiyana kwazvo kubva kune ayo mamodeli anoratidza," akadaro. akati yezvimwe zvakawanikwa kare naCARVE. โTakaona kuputika kukuru kwekabhoni dioxide nemethane mukati meAlaska nemhiri kweNorth Slope munguva yekunaya kwechirimo, uye kwakagara kusvika mushure mekudonha kwechando. Kududza mumwe muenzaniso, muna Chikunguru 2012 takaona mazinga emethane pamusoro pemachakwi muInnoko Wilderness ayo aive 650 zvikamu pabhirioni yakakwirira kupfuura yemazuva ese. Izvi zvakafanana nezvaungawana muguta guru.โ
Kufamba pasi peArctic Ocean uko methane hydrates - inowanzotsanangurwa semethane gasi yakakomberedzwa nechando - iripo, mushumo waKurume 2010 sainzi yakaratidza kuti izvi zvine zvakaenzana ne1,000-10,000 gigatons ecarbon. Enzanisa huwandu uhu ne240 gigatons yecarbon humanity yakabuda mumhepo kubva pakatanga shanduko yemaindasitiri.
A kudzidza rakabudiswa mujenari rine mukurumbira muzvarirwo Chikunguru chino chakaratidza kuti 50-gigaton "burp" yemethane kubva mukunyungudusa Arctic permafrost pasi pegungwa reEast Siberian "inogoneka zvakanyanya chero nguva." Izvozvo zvingave zvakaenzana ne1,000 gigatons ye carbon dioxide.
Kunyangwe iyo IPCC yakaderera ine akanyeverwa nezvemamiriro ezvinhu akadaro: โMukana wokungoerekana wachinja uye/kana kuti kuchinja kunongoerekana kwaitika pasi pano kunokonzerwa nokuchinja kwemamiriro okunze, nemigumisiro ine ngozi, haigoni kurambwa. Mhinduro yakanaka kubva mukudziya inogona kukonzera kuburitswa kwekabhoni kana methane kubva kune yepasi biosphere nemakungwa. "
Mumazana maviri emakore apfuura, huwandu hwemethane mumhepo yakawedzera kubva pazvikamu 0.7 pamiriyoni kusvika pazvikamu 1.7 pamiriyoni. Kupinzwa kwemethane muhuwandu hwakadaro mumhepo, mamwe masayendisiti ezvemamiriro okunze anotya, kungaita kuti tembiricha yepasi rose iite madhigirii mana kusvika kumatanhatu kusadzivisika.
Kugona kwepfungwa dzemunhu kutora uye kubata ruzivo rwakadaro kuri kuedzwa. Uye izvo zviri kuitika, zvakadaro data rakawanda rinoramba richidururwa mukati - uye nhau hadzina kunaka.
Kubva muFrying Pan, kupinda muMoto
Funga nezvenguva iyi:
* Kunopera 2007: Sangano reIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inozivisa kuti pasi rinoona tembiricha imwe chete yeCelsius ichikwira nekuda kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze ne2100.
* Kunopera 2008: Iyo Hadley Center yeMeteorological Research anofanotaura 2C kuwedzera ne2100.
* Pakati pa2009: The UN Environment Program anofanotaura kuwedzera kwe 3.5C ne 2100. Kuwedzera kwakadaro kunobvisa pekugara kwevanhu pasi pano, sezvo inenge yose plankton iri mumakungwa ichaparadzwa, uye kushanduka kwekushisa kwakabatana kunouraya zvirimwa zvakawanda zvepanyika. Vanhu havana kumbobvira vagara panyika pa 3.5C pamusoro pekutanga.
* Gumiguru 2009: Iyo Hadley Center yeMeteorological Research Releases fungidziro yakagadziridzwa, inoratidza kuwedzera kwekushisa kwe4C panosvika 2060.
*Mbudzi 2009: The Global Carbon Project, iyo inotarisa pasi rose kabhoni kutenderera, uye Copenhagen Kuongororwa, mushumo wesainzi yemamiriro ekunze, inofanotaura 6C uye 7C tembiricha inowedzera, zvichiteerana, ne2100.
* Zvita 2010: The UN Environment Program anofanotaura kuwedzera kusvika ku5C ne2050.
*2012: Iyo Conservative International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook shumo yegore iro inoti kuti tiri munzira yekusvika pakuwedzera kwe2C panosvika 2017.
*Mbudzi 2013: Iyo International Energy Agency anofanotaura 3.5C kuwedzera ne2035.
Muchidimbu chakapiwa kumusangano wakakundikana weUN Conference of the Parties muCopenhagen muna 2009 wakapa pfupiso iyi: โMwero wegungwa wenguva refu unoenderana nezvino CO2 uripo ungangoita mamita makumi maviri nenhatu pamusoro pemwero wanhasi, uye tembiricha ichange iri 23 degrees C kana kupfuura. kumusoro. Kufungidzira uku kwakavakirwa pamarekodhi chaiwo emamiriro ekunze enguva refu, kwete pamhando."
Musi waDecember 3, a kudzidza nemasayendisiti gumi nemasere ane mukurumbira, kusanganisira aimbova mukuru weNASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, James Hansen, vakaratidza kuti chinangwa chakagara chiripo, chakabvumiranwa pasi rose kuti chidzikise kukwira kweavhareji yetembiricha kusvika ku18 degrees Celsius kwakakanganisa uye kuri pamusoro pe2C. Chikumbaridzo chaizoda kuchengetedzwa kuitira kudzivirira migumisiro yenjodzi yekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze.
Uye ramba uchifunga kuti kwakasiyana siyana kuongorora kweramangwana tembiricha yepasirese kashoma kufunga zvakaipisisa pamusoro pekugona kuzvisimbisa kwemamiriro ekunze emamiriro ekunze senge methane imwe.
โZvinhu Zviri Kunetsaโ
Rufu rwune chokuita nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze rwakatovapo Inofungidzirwa pamamiriyoni mashanu pagore, uye muitiro wacho unoratidzika kuva uri kukurumidza kukurumidza kupfuura zvakataurwa nemhando dzakawanda dzemamiriro ekunze. Kunyange pasina kurangarira kubudiswa kwemethane yakaomeswa nechando muArctic, mamwe masayendisiti ari kutogadzira mufananidzo usina tariro zvechokwadi weramangwana romunhu. Tora Canadian Wildlife Service biologist Neil Dawe, uyo muna Nyamavhuvhu akaudza mutori wenhau kuti asazoshamiswa kana chizvarwa chinomutevera chaiona kutsakatika kwevanhu. Pese pese padyo nehofisi yake paVancouver Island, anga achiona kuburitswa kwe "dandemutande rehupenyu," uye "zviri kuitika nekukurumidza."
"Kukura kwehupfumi ndiko kuparadza kukuru kweecology," anodaro Dawe. โAvo vanhu vanofunga kuti unogona kuva nehupfumi huri kukura uye nharaunda ine hutano havana kururama. Kana tikasadzikisira nhamba dzedu, zvisikwa zvinotiitira.โ Uye haatarisiri kuti vanhu vachakwanisa kuzviponesa. โZvinhu zvese zvanyanya kuipa uye tichiri kuita zvimwe chetezvo. Nemhaka yokuti zvisikwa zvipenyu zvinokwanisa kusimba, hazvirangi nokukurumidza pabenzi.โ
Yunivhesiti yeArizona Guy McPherson ane kutya kwakafanana. โTichange tiine vanhu vashoma pasi pano nekuda kwekushaya pekugara,โ anodaro. Pazvidzidzo zvenguva pfupi yapfuura zvinoratidza kuwedzera kwekushisa kuchatora nzvimbo iyoyo, anowedzera, "Vari kungotarisa CO2 mumhepo."
Heino mubvunzo: Ko imwe vhezheni yekutsakatika kana kutsakatika-pedyo-kukunda vanhu, nekuda kwekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze - uye pamwe nekukurumidza zvinoshamisa? Zvinhu zvakafanana zvakaitika kare. Mamiriyoni makumi mashanu neshanu emakore apfuura, kukwira kwemadhigirii mashanu paavhareji tembiricha yepasi rose kunoratidzika kunge kwakaitika mumakore gumi nematatu chete, maererano ne chidzidzo chakaburitswa muna Gumiguru 2013 chinyorwa che Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. A ripoti muChinyorwa chaAugust 2013 che sainzi yakaratidza kuti munguva iri pedyo-nguva mamiriro ekunze ePasi achachinja zvakapetwa ka10 kupfuura pane imwe nguva ipi neipi mumakore mamiriyoni 65 apfuura.
"Arctic iri kudziya nekukurumidza kupfuura chero kupi zvako pasi pano," akadaro musayendisiti wezvemamiriro ekunze James Hansen akati. โPane zvingangoitika zvisingachinjiki zvekunyungudusa aizi yegungwa reArctic. Kana ikatanga kubvumira Arctic Ocean kudziya, uye kudziya pasi pegungwa, tobva tatanga kuburitsa methane hydrates. Uye kana tikarega izvo zviitike, iyo inguva yekunongedza yatisingade kuti zviitike. Kana tikapisa mafuta ese efossil ipapo isu zvirokwazvo tichaita kuti methane hydrates, pakupedzisira, abude uye akonzerese madhigirii akati wandei, uye hazvisi pachena kuti budiriro inogona kurarama iyo yakanyanyisa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze.
Asi, kare kare vanhu vasati vapisa zvisaririra zvose zvemafuta pasi pano, methane yakawanda ichabudiswa. Kunyange zvazvo muviri wemunhu uchikwanisa kubata kukwira kwemadhigirii matanhatu kusvika mapfumbamwe patembiricha yepasi, zvirimwa nenzvimbo zvatinoshandisa pakugadzira chikafu hazvisi. Sezvakataurwa naMcPherson, "Kana tikaona kuwedzera kwekutanga kwe3.5 kusvika ku4C, ini handioni nzira yekuve nekugara. Isu tiri pa .85C pamusoro pekutanga uye takatotanga zvese izvi zvinozvisimbisa pachedu zvemhinduro.
Anowedzera kuti: โUchapupu hwose hunoratidza kuti tembiricha yepasi rose yakapfigirwa 3.5 kusvika ku5 degrees C inokwira kupfuura 'yaiwanzoita' ya1850 pakati pezana remakore, zvichida nokukurumidza. Izvi zvinovimbisa mhinduro yakanaka, yatove kuenderera mberi, inotungamira kune 4.5 kusvika 6 kana kupfuura madhigirii pamusoro 'yenguva' uye iro danho rinouraya kuhupenyu. Izvi zvakakonzerwa nekuti vanhu vanofanirwa kudya uye zvirimwa hazvigone kuchinjika nekukurumidza kuti zvikwanisike kune mabhiriyoni manomwe kusvika mapfumbamwe edu - saka tichafa. "
Kana iwe uchifunga kuti zvakataurwa naMcPherson nezve kushaikwa kwekugadzirisa zvinoenda pamusoro, funga kuti chiyero chekushanduka-shanduka chinotevera mwero wekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze nechimwe chinhu. 10,000, maererano ne bepa muChinyorwa chaAugust 2013 che Tsamba dzeEcology. Uyezve, David Wasdel, mutungamiriri weApollo-Gaia Project uye nyanzvi yezvakawanda zvemhinduro dynamics, anoti, "Tiri kusangana neshanduko yakapetwa ka200 kusvika ku300 nekukurumidza kupfuura chero zviitiko zvakapfuura zvekutsakatika."
Wasdel anodudza nemamwe ma alarm esainzi mishumo inoratidza kuti makungwa atove kurasikirwa 40% ye phytoplankton yavo, hwaro hwechikafu chepasi rose chegungwa, nekuda kwekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze-kukonzeresa acidification uye kusiyana kwekushisa kwemuchadenga. (Maererano ne Center for Ocean Solutions: โManyanza atora inenge hafu yehutsi hweCO2 hwakaburitswa nevanhu kubva paKuchinja Kwemaindasitiri. Kunyange zvazvo izvi zvakadzikamisa kubudiswa kwegasi rinopisa, zviri kushandura makemikari ezvinhu zvipenyu zvomugungwa neka100 nokukurumidza kupfuura zvazvakachinja mumakore anenge 650,000 XNUMX apfuura.โ)
"Ichi chatova chiitiko chekutsakatika kwevanhu vakawanda," Wasdel anowedzera. โMubvunzo ndewekuti, zvichasvika kupi? Zvinova zvakakomba sei? Kana isu tisingakwanisi kumisa chiyero chekuwedzera kwekushisa pachako, uye kudzorera iyo pasi pekutonga, ipapo chiitiko chekushisa kwepamusoro, zvichida imwe 5-6 degrees [C], inogona kuparadza 60% kusvika 80% yevanhu. uye marudzi ezvipenyu zviri paPasi.โ
Chii Chinozotevera?
Muna Mbudzi 2012, kunyangwe Jim Yong Kim, purezidhendi weWorld Bank Group (sangano rezvemari repasi rose rinopa zvikwereti kunyika dzichiri kusimukira), akanyeverwa kuti โnyika inodziya ye4C inogona, uye inofanira kudziviswa. Kushaikwa kwechiito pakushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kunotyisidzira kuita kuti nyika vana vedu vagare nhaka yenyika yakasiyana zvachose neyatiri kurarama nhasi. "
Bhanga reNyika -commissioned report yakanyevera kuti zvechokwadi tave munzira kuenda ku "4C nyika" inoratidzirwa nekupisa kwakanyanya kwemafungu uye kutyisidzira upenyu-kukwira kwegungwa.
Vamiriri vatatu vapenyu vakatungamira hurukuro dzeUN nezvekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze murandu pane mukana mudiki chibvumirano chemamiriro ekunze chinotevera, kana chikazobvumidzwa, chichadzivirira nyika kubva pakupisa. "Hapana chingabvumiranwa muna 2015 chingaenderana ne2 madhigirii," anodaro Yvo de Boer, aive munyori mukuru weUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change muna 2009, pakuedza kusvika pachibvumirano pamusangano. muCopenhagen yakaparara. "Nzira chete iyo chibvumirano cha2015 chinogona kuita chinangwa che2-degree ndechekuvhara hupfumi hwepasi rose."
Nyanzvi yezvemuchadenga neyemugungwa Ira Leifer ari kunyanya kunetsekana nekuchinja kuri kuita kunaya kwemvura munguva pfupi yapfuura rakabatwa Mushumo weIPCC wakaratidza nezveramangwana redu: โPandinotarisa zvakafanotaurwa nemhando dze4C, ndinoona mvura shoma zvikuru pahuwandu hwevanhu. Kana Spain ikava seAlgeria, vanhu vekuSpain vese vanowana kupi mvura kuti vararame? Tine mativi enyika ane vanhu vakawanda vanonaya mvura yakawanda uye zvirimwa zviripo ikoko, uye kana mvura iyoyo nezvirimwa zvikaenda uye nyika yotanga kutaridzika sedzimwe dzeNorth Africa, chii chinoita kuti vanhu varambe vari vapenyu?โ
Mushumo weIPCC unoratidza kuti tinogona kutarisira kuchinja kuri kuita mvura zhinji pasi rose kuenda kuchamhembe, zvichibira nzvimbo dzava kuwana mvura yakawanda yemvura mune ramangwana. Nhau inotiratidza kuti zvokudya pazvinopera, hondo dzinotanga, nepo nzara nehosha zvichipararira. Zvese izvi zvinhu, masayendisiti ave kutya, zvinogona kuitika pamwero usati wamboitika, kunyanya zvichipihwa kubatana kwehupfumi hwenyika.
"Mamwe masayendisiti ari kuratidza kuti tinofanira kuita zvirongwa zvekuenderana nenyika ye4C," Leifer anotsinhira. โNepo kuchenjera, munhu anoshamisika kuti ndechipi chikamu chevagari vemo zvino chinogona kujairana nenyika yakadaro, uye maonero angu ndeokuti zvingori zviuru zvishoma zvevanhu [vari kutsvaka utiziro] muArctic kana kuti Antarctica.โ
Hazvishamisi kuti masayendisiti ane maonero akadaro kazhinji haasi ivo vanozivikanwa zvikuru mukamuri yepasi rose. McPherson, semuenzaniso, anowanzo kunzi "Guy McStinction" - kwaanopindura, "Ndiri kungotaura zvakabuda kubva kune mamwe masayendisiti. Zvinenge zvese izvi zvabuda zvinoburitswa mumabhuku akasimbiswa, anoremekedzwa. Ini handifunge kuti pane ari kunetsa neNASA, kana muzvarirwo, kana sainzi, Kana Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. [Avo] nevamwe vandinoshuma vanonyatsozivikanwa uye vanobva kunzvimbo dziri pamutemo, senge NOAA [National Oceanic uye Atmospheric Administration], semuenzaniso. Ini handisi kugadzira ruzivo urwu, ndiri kungobatanidza akati wandei, uye chimwe chinhu chinonetsa vanhu vazhinji. โ
McPherson haana tariro yakawanda yeramangwana, kana kuti hurumende inoda kuita chero chinhu chiri pedyo nekuchinja kukuru kunenge kwakakosha kukurumidza kurerutsa kuyerera kwemagasi egreenhouse mumhepo; uyewo haatarisiri kuti vezvenhau vakakurumbira vashandise nhamburiko huru mukushuma pamusoro paikoku kwose nemhaka yokuti, sokutaura kwaanoita, โHakuna mari yakawanda mumugumo webudiriro, uye kunyange shoma zvikuru ichaitwa mukutsakatika kwomunhu.โ Kuparadzwa kwepasi, kune rumwe rutivi, ibheti yakanaka, anotenda, โnokuti mune mari mune izvi, uye chero zvakadaro, zvicharamba zvichienderera mberi.
Leifer, zvisinei, ane chokwadi chokuti pane chisungo chetsika chekusambokanda mapfumo pasi uye kuti nzira inoenda kukuparadzwa kwepasi rose inogona kuchinjwa. "Nenguva pfupi, kana ukakwanisa kuita mune zvehupfumi zvevanhu kuti vaite izvo chaizvo, zvichaitika nekukurumidza." Anopa fananidzo kana zvasvika pakuti vanhu vangada here kuita chimwe chinhu kuderedza migumisiro yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze: โVanhu vanoita zvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana kuti vaderedze njodzi yegomarara, kwete nekuti wakavimbiswa kuti hauchaiwana, asi nekuti ita zvaunogona uye utore dziviriro yehutano neinishuwarenzi yaunoda kuti uedze kuderedza njodzi yako yekuiwana. "
Zviratidzo zvekuipa kwedambudziko remamiriro ekunze zvakatikomberedza, kunyangwe tikazvibvumira kuzviona kana kusazviona. Zvirokwazvo, nzanga yesainzi inoiwana. Sezvinoita nharaunda dzisingaverengeki pasi rese uko mhedzisiro yekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze yave kutoonekwa nenzira dzinoshamisa uye dzemunharaunda gadziriro kune njodzi dzemamiriro ekunze, kusanganisira mafashama ari kuwedzera ane simba, kusanaya kwemvura, moto wesango, masaisai ekupisa, uye madutu. iri pasi. Kubuda kubva muzvitsuwa zvakaderera zveSouth Pacific kwatove kutanga. Vanhu vari munzvimbo dzakadai, nekuda kwekudikanwa, vari kutanga kuedza kudzidzisa vana vavo nzira yekujairana, uye kurarama mazviri, zvatiri kuita kuti nyika yedu ive.
Vazukuru vangu nevazukuru vangu vari kuita zvimwe chetezvo. Vari kurima muriwo mubindu rekuseri kwemba uye huku dzavo sere dzinopa mazai anopfuura anokwanira mhuri. Vabereki vavo vanoda chaizvo kuvadzidzisa kuti varambe vachizvitsigira. Asi hapana chimwe cheizvi zviito zvemwoyo wose chinogona kuderedza zviri kutoitika kana toreva nezvemamiriro ekunze epasi rose.
Ndine makore 45, uye ndinowanzonetseka kuti chizvarwa changu chichapukunyuka sei dambudziko remamiriro okunze riri kuuya. Chii chichaitika kunyika yedu kana mvura yechirimo yeArctic zvechokwadi isina aizi makore mashoma kubva zvino? Hupenyu hwangu huchange hwakaita sei kana ndikararama kuti ndiwane kuwedzera tembiricha yepasi rose ne3.5 Celsius?
Kupfuura zvose, ndinoshamisika kuti zvizvarwa zvinouya zvichararama sei.
Dahr Jamail yakanyora zvakawanda pamusoro pekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze pamwe nenjodzi yemafuta eBP muGulf of Mexico. Iye anogamuchira mibairo yakawanda, kusanganisira iyo Martha Gellhorn Mubairo weJournalism uye mubairo weJames Aronson weSocial Justice Journalism. Ndiye munyori wemabhuku maviri: Kupfuura iyo Green Zone: Dispatches kubva kune Anembedded Mutori venhau muKushandira Iraq uye Kuda Kuramba: Varwi Vanoramba Kurwisana muIraq neAngland. Parizvino anoshandira al-Jazeera Chirungu muDoha, Qatar.
[Chinyorwa ichi chakatanga kubuda TomDispatch.com, weblog yeNational Institute, inopa kuyerera kwakadzikama kwemamwe masosi, nhau, uye maonero kubva kuna Tom Engelhardt, mupepeti wenguva refu mukutsikisa, co-muvambi we iyo American Empire ProjectMuvambi Mugumo Wekukunda Muitiro, Se yerimwe novel, Mazuva Ekupedzisira Ekudhinda. Bhuku rake razvino nderekuti Iyo American Way of War: Hondo dzaBush dzakava sei dzaObama (Mabhuku eShimarket).
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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Robert Lowell wrote, โThe light at the end of the tunnel, is the light of an oncoming train.โ Drastic measures are needed, and there is no sign that our government is willing to take them. Switching to methane is ridiculous when methane is part of the problem not part of any solution. Greenhouse gases need to be cut by 90% (remember when it was 80% and nothing was done, except the US trying to obfuscate the issue). โWe have met the enemy and he is us.โ Declare war on our destructive paradigm of growth, conquest and consumption. Demand that our government, right now, not tomorrow or the day after, without the advice or consent of the movers and shakers, act in the interests of Life. Reduce the speed limit, ration gas, stop waging wars (think about the energy use) and let those people alone so they can deal with their own situations without worrying about being bombed, close all those 600 plus overseas bases, reduce to a minimum industrial agriculture a huge contributor to carbon emissions (fuel, fertilizers, pesticides, etcโall petroleum derived), which for eg over produces commodities such as corn so that they are constantly looking for new unneeded things to do with it , restrict manufacturing of unneeded stuff to truly necessary things, restrict car manufacturing (certainly we dont need new cars every year) , restrict airtravel (jet fuel) , ration electricity usage, stop production of unneeded pharmaceuticals, stop construction of new airports, stop suburban developmentโExamine every part of everything we do and scale back to what is necessary. I can hear the weeping, see the wringing of hands, โBut oh, our profits, jobs, the economy.โ vs Life on Earth, isnt this a no brainer? Reclaim the โexternalized costsโ that have been accumulating in the pockets of the rich and multinationals, use the trillions spent on constant war and distribute it to those whose livelihoods are lost, use it to help each other. This is not a grade B movie script. This is reality. If decisive, radical, immediate action is not taken now, then all those things mentioned above with be forced upon us, fist on those at the base of the pyramid to be sure, but on everyone ultimately. It wont happen in a timely manner, it wont be civil, it wont be pretty. Shall we show the worst face of humanity, or the best?