Musi waNdira 2, 2016, hurumende yeSunni yeHumambo hweSaudi Arabia (KSA) yakauraya imam anotungamira wenharaunda yeShia muKSA. Hurumende yeShiite yeIran yakashora kuuraya uku, sezvakaita hurumende pasi rose, uye yakapika kuti kwaizova nemigumisiro. Kubva panguva iyoyo, rhetoric yakaramba ichikwira, uye vezvematongerwo enyika nevezvenhau vakataura nezvehondo inogona kuitika pakati peSaudi Arabia neIran. Anenge munhu wose anowanzoita kusawirirana uku seimwe yakavakirwa pakuparadzana kwechitendero pakati peSunni neShia iyo inonzi ine midzi yakareba kwazvo munguva yakapfuura, uye inotsanangura mamiriro ezvinhu aripo kubva pakuparadzana kwechitendero pakati peSunni neShia.
Kunyange mativi ese ari maviri achiita seanodzokera kumashure pamberi pehondo yakanangana nehondo, kune hondo muSyria neYemen iyo inoitwa nemapoka anonzi maproxies eSaudis nemaIran. Avo vanorwa panzvimbo muSyria neYemen havaratidzike kunge vari kukurudzira chero munhu kuita sevarevereri vasina kwavakarerekera. Mapoka ari muSyria neYemen haana kuvimbana zvakanyanya zvekuti anoita seanoona kuyananisira sekusingagoneki. Izvi zvinoita kuti zviome zvakanyanya, kana zvisingaite, kupa pamberi kune chero zano rinorwisa zvinobudirira iro richiri rakapararira simba reIslamic State, iyo United States (nevamwe) yakazivisa seyokutanga nhamba.
Ndangariro dzedu dzinowanzova dzenguva pfupi zvekuti takanganwa zvachose kuti Sunni Saudi Arabia neShiite Iran vaimbove vepedyo geopolitical vabatsiri. Yakanga isiri nguva refu yapfuura.
Hatifanire kudzokera pakusikwa kweHumambo hweSaudi Arabia muna 1932 apo Iran yakapa nyika itsva kucherechedzwa kwehutongi hwezvematongerwo enyika, zvichiita kuti Saudi Arabia igamuchirwe zvakanyanya munharaunda yenyika dzakazvimiririra. Nguva inonakidza zvikuru ndeyema1960. Apo vagoveri vemafuta epasi rose vakangoerekana vadzikisa mitengo yavanga vakagadzirira kubhadhara mafuta asina kuchena, hurumende ye (pre-Chavez) Venezuela yakurudzira kuhurumende ye (pre-Ayatollah) Iran kuti vasangane pamwe chete, vachikokawo Iraq, Kuwait. , neSaudi Arabia, kuti vaone kana pakanga pasina matanho ekupikisa kurwiswa kwemari yavo yenyika. Vakatsamwa zvikuru uye vakapomera zvose zviri zviviri mabhanga makuru nevagoveri vemafuta (vanodaidzwa kuti Seven Sisters) uye hurumende yeU.S., iyo yavakaona sekutsigira mabhanga, kana kusiri kunyandura zvisarudzo zvavo.
Musangano wakaitwa muVienna kubva munaGunyana 10-14, 1960. Nyika shanu dzakavamba Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Vakakoka dzimwe nyika kuti dzibatane neOPEC. Nokufamba kwenguva, vamwe vakaita: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, neGabon (iyo yakazobuda).
Pakutanga, OPEC yaingova nzvimbo yekukurukurirana uye kupanana ruzivo. Zvakadaro, Israel payakakunda dzinoverengeka nyika dzechiArab muhondo yainzi Yom Kippur War muna 1973, nerutsigiro rwakakosha uye rwakajeka rweUnited States, OPEC yakazivisa kuramba mafuta pasi rose. Yakakurudzirwa neSaudi Arabia neIran. Pfungwa yekuita zvechiuto neOPEC yakanga yambotaurwa nenhengo dzeOPEC dzakawanda "dzakasimukira". Asi kusvika 1973, yakanga isina rutsigiro kubva kuSaudi Arabia kana kubva kuIran. Nyika mbiri idzi dzainge dzichitorwa sedziri pedyo neUnited States panguva iyoyo. Kuchinja kwavo kwakabatana pachinzvimbo kwakaratidza shanduko huru munhoroondo yeOPEC.
Asi cherechedza iyo yepakati geopolitical chokwadi. Saudi Arabia neIran dzaidyidzana zvakananga. Pakanga pasina kutaura pamusoro pemireniyumu yemakwikwi eSunni-Shiite. Panzvimbo pezvo, vakanga vachibatira pamwe. Uye zvakashanda. Pakazouya kukwira kukuru kwemutengo wemafuta pasi rose, uko kwakabatsira Saudi Arabia neIran.
Muna 1974, musangano weOPEC makurukota emafuta muVienna wakapindwa nevatsigiri vePalestine mafambiro anotungamirwa na “Carlos the Jackal.” Akatyisidzira kupfura vazhinji, kunyanya Gurukota reIran Oiri. Nyaya yekuti vatapi vakazosunungurwa sei uye nemutengo upi hauna kumbobvira wanyatsojeka. Zvisinei, pane chimwe chinhu chakakosha. Mumwe munhu akabhadhara rudzikinuro rweIranian Oiri Minister. Vanoongorora vasvika pakutenda kuti hurumende yeSaudi yakazviita yakamiririra shamwari yavo yeIran. Hunhu hunoshamisa kana munhu achitenda kuti hurumende mbiri idzi dzakakurudzirwa chete nekusawirirana kwechitendero.
Imwe nguva yekupedzisira yekuda kuziva. Muna Kurume 2007, pakanga paine musangano weOrganisation of Islamic Cooperation muRiyadh, Saudi Arabia. Hurumende yeKSA yakakoka Iran pachena kuti itumire mumwe munhu kuzopinda. Mutungamiriri wenguva iyoyo Ahmadinejad weIran, akatariswa panguva iyo mutungamiri weIran ainyanya kutaura uye zvisingaite kune chero hukama nenyika dzekuMadokero, akabvuma kukokwa. Akasangana panhandare yendege naMambo Abdullah weSaudi Arabia, chiito chikuru. Abdullah akarumbidza kusvika kwe "marudzi ehama." Musangano uyu hauna kushanda, asi wakaratidza zvakare kuti hukama hwezvematongerwo enyika hwakanga husingadzorwi nemaitiro echitendero chete.
Nei OPEC yakakwanisa kuwana kurova uye kukwira kwemutengo wemafuta pasi rose muna 1973 uyezve muna 1979? Chii chakanga chakasiana panguva iyeyo nanhasi muMiddle East? Zvinhu zviviri zvikuru. United States yakanga ichiri muna 1973 zvayakasisiri muna 2016, iyo nyika yakasarudzika uye yezvematongerwo enyika. Pakupedzisira munhu wese aifanira kugara kune zvishuwo zveUnited States, zvakanyanya kana zvishoma.
Kune rimwe divi, simba reUS geopolitical rakaunza nekumanikidza. Payakapa kusarudzika kwayo kune maIsrael muhondo yeYom Kippur, yaitoda kuenzanisa izvi nekumwe kuita kune rimwe divi kufadza angangoita Saudi Arabia, mubatsiri akakosha. Kune vazhinji vanofunga kuti United States yakapa kumberi kuSaudi Arabia neIran kuti vatange kuramba. Kunze kwekuvafadza, yakawana mukana wehupfumi kuUnited States mukusimbaradza ruoko rwayo mumakwikwi ematatu pakati peUnited States, kumadokero kweEurope, neJapan.
Tirikupi zvino nhasi? Saudi Arabia neIran dzakadyidzana zvakanyanya munguva yakapfuura. Hazvingambofungiki kuti vangazviita zvakare munguva pfupi iri kutevera. Iyo geopolitical mhirizhonga yakakura kwazvo, uye hapana muongorori anofanira kubvisa chero shanduko inogona kuitika. Geopolitics inogona zvakare kuridza misiyano yechitendero. Izvi ndezvechokwadi kunyanya nekuda kwekuderera kwakanyanya kwehukama hweUS mudunhu.
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