"Kutaura zvazviri, haungatarisiri kunzwa izvi kubva kuMunyori weDziviriro, asi maererano nekugadzikana kwedu mupfungwa, kupfuudza TPP kwakakosha kwandiri semumwe mutakuri wendege." -Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter
Zvinopfuura purofiti yemakambani zvakafambisa nhaurirano dzapera dzechibvumirano chekutengeserana cheTrans Pacific Partnership (TPP) chakagadzirirwa kubatanidza makumi mana muzana ehuwandu hwepasi rose hwekugadzirwa kwehupfumi nezviwanikwa. Aimbove Mutevedzeri weMunyori weDziviriro Chas W. Freeman akazvitaura zvakanaka paakatsanangura kuti TPP "chidziviriro chekurwisana nekusimudzirwa kweChina munharaunda yeAsia-Pacific. [Izvo] zvine chekuita nezvematongerwo enyika, kwete nezvehupfumi - kunyangwe hupfumi hwakashata. "
Nehurombo, iyo yenguva pfupi geostrategic zero-sum kufunga kwakatungamira kuti Beijing ibviswe munhaurirano dzeTPP ichawedzera kukwikwidza-chiuto pamwe chete nehupfumi-simba reUS-Chinese kukwikwidzana kudyidzana. Nemujaho wezvombo weUS-China uye kukwikwidza kwavo "zvido zvakakosha" zvinotariswa neUS mutemo unofanirwa kunge uri pakuvaka kuchengetedzwa kwakafanana kwenguva refu, kwete zvenguva pfupi uye kuzvikunda zvine hungwaru.
Nhaurirano dzeTPP dzanga dziri muganho wehupfumi weiyo panguva iyoyo Secretary of State Hillary Clinton akadana United States' "diplomatic, economic, strategic" pivot kuAsia, gare gare yakadzora zita rekuti "rebalancing" kuitira kuti isazovhundutsa vakuru veChina.
Kukurukurirana muchivande pakati peU.S., Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Philippines nedzimwe nyika nhanhatu dzeAmerica neAsia Pacific zvirokwazvo chibvumirano chegororo chinofukidza โkutengeserana nenhumbiโฆ.technical barriers to tradeโฆ.investment; masevhisi; kutengeserana kwemagetsi; zvinhu zvenjere [kusanganisira mishonga yemishonga]; basaโ nezvimwe zvakawanda. Isu tinoudzwa kuti ichave imwe mwedzi zvitsauko makumi matatu zvese zvechibvumirano zvisati zvavepo kuti zviongororwe neveruzhinji, asi zvinoburitswa zvinotizivisa kuti zvakawanda zvezvipimo zvaro zvinodarika mirau yakakosha yenyika, ichiridza zvakasara zvedemocracy yeUS uye kuchengetedzeka kwedzimwe nyika. Chokwadi"ichadzikisa mitero, kuderedza mihoro, uye kuparadza nharaunda."
Kunetsana kusingadzivisike pakati pemasimba ari kusimuka nekudzikira kwakauya nekukwira kweChina mumakore makumi matatu apfuura. Mushure memakore 150 ekuva makoroni; uye vachitambura zvibvumirano zvisina kuenzana, rusaruraganda, kunyadziswa, uye kusarura neMadokero neJapan, vazhinji muChina zvinonzwisisika vanotenda kuti kudzorera basa rekare reMiddle Kingdom tsika dzakasimbiswa nemasimba makuru ekare dzinofanira kuchinjwa - kwete zvishoma mari yeBretton Woods. system. Saka China yakatanga Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, migwagwa mitsva yesirika, uye yakatora 80% yeSouth China Sea kuitira kudzoreredza geostrategic yeChina "World Island" mumoyo weEurasia. Hazvifanire kunge zvisingashamisi kuti Beijing payakanyimwa mabasa akakosha muUS inotonga World Bank neInternational Monetary Fund yakamisa Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. Kuburitswa kweTPP kuchasimudzira mushandirapamwe weChina kugadzira chibvumirano chekutengeserana chemahara chedunhu (RCEP) chisingasanganisire United States. Panzvimbo pekutsvaga kuchengetedzwa kwakajairwa kuhwina-kuhwina mhinduro, veUS elite vakatsvaga mauto nehupfumi huzere kutonga. Vaimbove chipangamazano chaObama National Security Advisor Tom Donilon akatsanangura kuti, "kuchinja kwekutarisa kunharaunda yeAsia-Pacific haingori nyaya yekuvapo kwemauto. Asi, kuedza kubatanidza zvinhu zvese zvesimba reUS: mauto, zvematongerwo enyika, kutengeserana nekudyara, kusimudzira uye kukosha. "
Kubva pamaonero aya, kuiswa kwe60% yeNavy neAir Force kudunhu reAsia-Pacific kunoda kusimbiswa nemamwe mativi esimba reU.S. Asi, saDonlon, Hillary Clinton nevamwe vamiriri vesimba rakapfava pamwe nerekumanikidza remauto vanonzwisisa kuti chiuto chinhu chisingatarisike, chine magumo uye tinsel chishandiso. Nekubatanidza zvakadzama hupfumi husiri hweChinese Asia-Pacific uye nzanga mune idzo dzeUS, vagadziri vezvekuchengetedzwa kwenyika muWashington vari kutsvaga kuwedzera simba rehupfumi kuti "vakwire" China uye kutonga kusimuka kwayo nekudzivirira nyika dzeAsia-Pacific kubva mukusimba kweChina kuri kukura. kudhonza uye kukwezva. Kurasikirwa nerudo rwezvizvarwa zveKorea nedzimwe nyika dzeAsia-Pacific 'ne-semuenzaniso vadzidzi vekuSouth Korea vanoda kudzidza kuChina kupfuura kuUS-zvine zvazvinoreva kwenguva refu. Pakati pazvo pane njodzi yekukanganisa mibatanidzwa uye kurasikirwa nemauto ekunze eUS ayo ave nenguva achiita basa rakakosha munzvimbo yakakomberedzwa nemauto eUS kuChina neRussia, tisingataure nezvekuwana zviwanikwa zvetekinoroji zveWashington's Asia-Pacific vanobatana.
Kuva Asia-Pacific Hegemon
TPP uye Pivot ndiwo 21st yemakore kuratidzwa kwenhoroondo refu. Panenge panguva imwe chete iyo Admiral Perry โakavhuraโ Japan nezvikepe zvehondo, Munyori weNyika wemunguva yemberi weU.S. William Seward akapa zano rokuti kana U.S. yaizotsiva Britain sesimba guru renyika, inofanira kutanga yadzora Asia. Ngarava dzevatengesi nedzemauto dzenguva iyoyo dzaida zviteshi zvemarasha kuti vayambuke Pacific, uye masimba aikwikwidzana ekoloni akanga asingadi kugovera matombo aya kuAsia neAmerica kumusoro. Nzira yeU.S. kuumambo nokudaro yakavharwa kwechinguvana, uye Seward akagadzika nokuda kweโUpenziโ hwakeโAlaska, zambuko rokuchamhembe rinoenda kuAsia.
Pakasvika 1898 umambo hweSpain hwakanga hwaderera. Achidzvinyirirwa naTeddy Roosevelt, Senator Cabot-Lodge uye nyanzvi yehondo yehondo Captain Mahan, veU.S. vakanga vavaka ngarava dzehondo dzaidiwa kukwikwidzana neBritain. Pamusoro pezvo, kuderera kukuru kwehupfumi kwakakurudzira vane mari nevarimi kuti vade kukundwa kwemisika mitsva - kunyanya China, iyo inoyera ye capitalism. Vaitenda kuti mamirioni evanofungidzira vatengi veChinese vaizochengeta mafekitori eUS achishanda 24/7, zvichitungamira kumabasa akazara, rugare rwemagariro, uye purofiti yakakora.
Mudambudziko pane mukana. Kunyura kweU.S.S. Maine muHavana Harbour nevapambi vasati vazivikanwa vakapa Mutungamiri McKinley chikonzero chaidiwa kuti varwe hondo zvakare Spain. Matombo ekuenda kuAsia: Philippines, Guam, neSaipan dzakakundwa (sezvakaita Cuba nePuerto Rico) uye Hawai'i, neParera rayo rechiteshi chengarava, yakatorwa. Mukati mehafu yekutanga yezana ramakore rechi20 Washington, London neTokyo dzakakwikwidzana kuti dzive nemukana muAsia nePacific, zvichizoguma nekukundwa kweJapan uye kurasikirwa kweumambo kweBritain. Iyo Pacific yakava "American Lake," uye hegemony yedunhu reUS yakasimbiswa nehondo yakaderera uye yakanyanya kusimba, kupandukira kweCIA, hurumende dzevatengi, uye nemazana emabhesi emauto eUS akatenderedza China neSoviet Union.
Makore makumi manomwe mushure mekukunda kweUS muHondo yePacific, hurumende dzevatengi uye zvigadziko zvinosara, asi China "yakasimuka", ichipikisa hutongi hweUS mune zvehupfumi, zvezvematongerwo enyika uye zvechiuto. Chinonyanya kukosha pakuenderera mberi kwehupfumi hweChina, uye nekudaro kugadzikana kwayo mune zvematongerwo enyika, kudiwa kwekuchengetedza nzira dzegungwa dzekutaurirana mhiri kweIndian Ocean, Malacca Strait, neSouth China Sea izvo zvinodiwa kufambisa oiri kubva kuPersian Gulf kuti ipfudze China. hupfumi, pamwe nekuona kuchengetedzwa kwekutengeserana kweChina zvakanyanya mugungwa. Uye iyo South China Sea yakakura zvicherwa zviwanikwa hausi mudiki mubairo. Nokudaro, ndangariro dzezana remakore reChina nehafu yekunyadziswa uye kuvharirwa kwemauto emugungwa eU.S. kwakadzipa hupfumi hweJapan munguva yehondo, Beijing iri kufamba kuti ive nechokwadi chekuchengetedzwa kwayo nekuvakwa kwezana remakore rechi21 remvura yebhuruu yemvura.
Izvi zvinotyisidzira simba rehumambo neropafadzo dzakayerera kune veUS elite semhedzisiro yekutonga kwedunhu reUS. Inotsanangurawo mauto eUS, ehupfumi uye diplomatic pivot - kusanganisira TPP - kuAsia nePacific.
Common Security Alternatives kune International Relations 101
Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel akayambira kuti "China iri kutsika miganhu" uye kuti "Maitiro atiri kuona anoratidza kuti maChinese anoda kuita zvemhando yepamusoro. Tiri kunzwa zvakawanda pamusoro pechiroto cheChinese. " Zvakajeka mukutaura kwaRussel ndeyekutenda kuti nyika imwe chete - United States - ine kodzero yekutaura mitemo yemutambo, iyo inosimbisa iyo United States 'yakasarudzika American Dream.
Haisi tsaona kuti iyo Obama Administration pavakaita mushandirapamwe kutsvaga mavhoti anodiwa kuti vawane mvumo ye "fast track" TPP, akayambira kuti "China, iyo 800 pound gorilla muAsia, ichagadzira yayo seti yemitemo ..." asi iyo neTPP. โChina ichafanirwa kutora iyi seti yemitemo yekutengeserana yatakamisa.โ (kusimbisa kwakawedzerwa) Aimbova kutengeserana kwake Tsar William Daley akatevera, achinyora kuti neTPP "hupfumi hweChina huchabatanidzwa nekujoinha mubatanidzwa wedu ...."
Kuzadzisa uye kushoma kutaurwa pane nhaurirano dzeTPP inhaurirano dzeUS neEuropean Union yeTransatlantic Trade and Investment Agreement. Sezvakataurwa naSergei Rogov weMoscow's Institute of U.S. and Canada Studies, โObama ariโฆ 20 muzana yehuwandu hwepasirese, makumi matanhatu neshanu muzana eGDP yepasi rose, uye ingangoita makumi manomwe muzana ezvekutengesa kunze kwenyika. China inoratidzika kunge ine mwero zvichienzaniswa neizvi. "
Hurumende yedu iri kutamba mutambo une njodzi uyo wakazara nekupokana kuri kuitika mumakore zana apfuura. Joseph Nye, aimbova mugadziri anotungamira weUS Asia-Pacific marongero, akanyevera zvakakodzera kuti munhoroondo yese kwave kune makwikwi ane ngozi pakati pemasimba ari kusimuka nekuderera. Kaviri muzana remakore rechi20, Nye yakataura kakawanda, U.S. neBritain dzakakundikana kubatanidza masimba ari kusimuka eGermany neJapan munhevedzano yadzo yenyika, zvichiguma nehondo dzenyika dzine ngozi. Nechikonzero ichi, akamanikidza kubatanidzwa kweUS panguva imwe chete uye midziyo yeChina, nemidziyo ine simba rayo rehondo. Asi, mukuisa hwaro hwepivot yaObama, akanyorawo kuti โAsia ichadzokera pachinhanho chayo chenhoroondo, inopfuura hafu yevagari vepasi nehafu yehupfumi hwenyika. American inofanira kunge iripo. Misika uye masimba ehupfumi ari pahurongwa hwezvematongerwo enyika, uye simba remauto reAmerica rinopa hurongwa uhu. "
Zvinosuruvarisa, kana Nye kana vamwe vazhinji vekuUS "chengetedzo yenyika" vanoronga havasati vapinza zvidzidzo kubva kuVietnam, Afghanistan neIraq Wars kana kubva kuCommon Security kupera kusvika kuCold War. Iye zvino isimba rinodada uye riri kusimukira, Beijing icharamba kutungamirwa kuita chinzvimbo chepasi pasi muAmerican Dream universe. Iyo yehutsinye zero-sum zera rekukunda kwekoloni uye kubiridzira vakafa nekuzvitonga kweIndia uye kukundwa kweUS neFrance muVietnam. Kana iyo yekuAmerica kana yeChinese Hope inogona kutengeswa kunze kwenyika pamafungu emakwikwi matsva emaoko kana nekutyisidzirwa uye kushatiswa kwezvakatipoteredza kunoperekedza kuvakwa kwemamwe mauto ekunze. Imwe nzira kana imwe, ndeye 99% vanobhadhara mutengo wehupfumi, mauto uye ezvematongerwo enyika kukwikwidza.
Imwe nzira, sezvatakadzidza angangoita makumi matatu emakore apfuura, kutsvaga kuchengetedzwa kwakafanana kana kugovaniswa. Inoratidza chokwadi chekare chokuti munhu kana kuti rudzi harunganzwi rwakakotsekana kana zviito zvavo zvichiita kuti vavakidzani varo kana kuti muvengi wavo ave asina kuchengeteka uye anotya. Panguva yakakwira Hondo Yemashoko, Mutungamiriri weSweden, Olaf Palme, akaunza nhamba dzinotungamira dzeU.S., Europe neSoviet pamwechete kuti vatsvage nzira dzekudzokera kumashure. Common Security yaive mhinduro yavo, zvichitungamira kunhaurirano yeIntermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, iyo yakanyatsopedza Cold War isati yaputsika zvinoshamisa Rusvingo rweBerlin.
Munhaurirano dzekuchengetedza dzakafanana, kutya uye kusachengeteka kwebato rimwe nerimwe kunopihwa mazita uye kunogadziriswa pasina kukanganisa chengetedzo yemumwe. Iko kuhwina-kuhwina kwete zero-sum. Izvi zvinogona kushandiswa kumijaho yezvombo, makwikwi ezviwanikwa, kutengeserana, shanduko yemamiriro ekunze, kana chero mamwe matambudziko, kune chengetedzo chaiyo. Mumashoko eInternational Peace Bureauโs Reiner Braun, โKuchengetedzwa kwakafanana kunoreva nhaurirano, nhaurirano nebatira pamwe; zvinoreva kugadzirisa kusawirirana kune rugare. Chengetedzo inogona kuwanikwa chete nenhamburiko dzakabatana kana kusatombowana zvachose. "
Zvechokwadi tinoda nhaurirano dzekutengeserana nedzimwe nyika uye zvibvumirano. Asi, ivo vanofanirwa kusvika kuburikidza nekubatanidza, demokrasi, yakavhurika, uye pachena maitiro. Iwo anofanirwa kugadzirwa kuti asimbise kuchengetedzeka uye chiremerera chevanhu vepasi uye kuchengetedza kwezvakatipoteredza. Zvaive, isu tinofanirwa kurangarira, kubviswa kwakawanda kwevarimi vekuMexico nevashandi vekurima kunobva kuNorth American Free Trade Agreement iyo yakadzinga mamirioni evarume, vakadzi nevana vakapererwa vachitiza kuchamhembe kuenda kuUnited States, nenjodzi dzakasikwa, kufa uye kunyadziswa izvo. vatevera vazhinji.
Sezvo Congress inofamba ichikakavadzana kubvumidzwa kweTrans Pacific Partnership, meseji yedu inofanirwa kujeka: Kwete chibvumirano ichi! Dzokera kunoshanda neChina patafura uye kugadzirisa zvinodikanwa zveichi uye nezvizvarwa zvinotevera sechinangwa chenhaurirano.
** Simbiso yakawedzerwa nemunyori.
Dr. Joseph Gerson ndiye Mutungamiriri weZvirongwa zveAmerican Friends Service Committee muNew England. Bhuku rake razvino uno ndere Humambo neBhomba: Mashandisiro anoita US Zvombo zveNyukireya Kutonga Nyika. Mabhuku ake apfuura anosanganisira Zuva harimbonyuri uye NeHiroshima Eyes.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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