Ko chiziviso cheUS Federal Reserve chekucheka kwakawanda kwemitengo yemubereko kuchatadzisa kudzikira nyika dzakabatana uye kubvisa fungidziro yekuparara kwepasi rose? Nyanzvi dzakawanda dzinofunga kuti zvichadaro. Pakuipisisa, vanofunga kuti mwero wekukura unogona kuderera. Vamwe vacherechedzi mumusasa wecapitalist vari kunetsekana zvikuru. MuFrance, Jacques Attali anofanoona tsaona paWall Street, imba yeNew York stock exchange uye muchengeti wekupedzisira wepiramidhi yechikwereti (1), uye Michel Rocard ane chokwadi chekuti dambudziko repasi rose rave pedyo uye kuti hurongwa hwave kuda kuputika ( 2).
Pane zviratidzo zvakawanda zve alarm. Pane kufarira kutsva kwekuchengetedza goridhe uye kumhanyira kutenga - mutengo wegoridhe wakasimuka ne32% muna 2007. Zvose masangano makuru ehupfumi, kusanganisira International Monetary Fund uye Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, inofanotaura kukura kwakaderera pasi rose.
Izvi zvose zvakatanga pakatanga bubble internet muna 2001. Kununura vatengesi, panguva iyoyo US Federal Reserve sachigaro Alan Greenspan akasarudza kusimudzira musika pfuma nokusuma mutemo yakaderera chaizvo mubereko, uye kuderedza mari mhosva. Izvi zvakapa vatsigiri vezvemari nevatengesi vezvivakwa kukurudzira kuti vanyengetedze vanhu vakawanda kuisa mari muzvidhinha nedhaka. Saka iyo system ye subprimes, yakakwirira-njodzi inosiyana-mwero zvikwereti zvekubhadhara mhuri dzine mari shoma kana avo vane chikwereti chisina kunaka. Asi muna 2005 iyo Federal Reserve yakasimudza mazinga ekutanga - ayo aive achangoderedza. Izvi zvakakanda hurongwa hwese kunze kwegiya uye mhedzisiro yakarova pasi rose banking system muna Nyamavhuvhu 2007.
Nemamiriyoni matatu US mhuri dzakatarisana nekushaya mari uye zvikwereti zvinosvika $200bn, mamwe masangano makuru echikwereti akashaya mari. Kuti vazvibhadhare pachiitiko ichi, vakanga vatengesa zvikwereti zvisina mubvunzo kune mamwe mabhanga. Mabhangi akaisa zvikwereti mumari yekufungidzira yekudyara, uye mari yacho yakazvipfuudza kumabhangi pasi rese. Saka dambudziko racho rakapararira uye rakakurumidza kukanganisa hurongwa hwose hwebhangi.
Makuru masangano emari, anosanganisira Citigroup uye Merrill Lynch mune US, Northern Rock in Britain, Swiss Re uye UBS mukati Siwizarendi uye Sociรฉtรฉ Gรฉnรฉrale mukati Furanzi, zvakakonzera kurasikirwa kukuru uye kufungidzira kune zvimwe zvichauya. Kuderedza kukuvadzwa kwacho, vakawanda vaifanira kugamuchira mari kubva kumanyuko anozvitonga anodzorwa nemasimba okumaodzanyemba kana kuti hurumende dzakapfuma neoiri.
Kukura chaiko kwekukuvara hakusati kwanyatsojeka. Mabhanga makuru mu US, Europe, uye UK, Siwizarendi uye Japani vakadurura mazana emabhiriyoni emadhora muhupfumi kubva muna Nyamavhuvhu 2007, asi chivimbo hachina kudzoserwa. Dambudziko rakapararira kubva mubazi rezvemari kusvika kune mamwe hupfumi. Zvinhu zvakati wandei - kudonha nekukurumidza kwemitengo yemba mu US, ivo UK, Ayarendi uye Speini, kudonha kwedhora, chikwereti chinosvina - chinoratidza kuderera kwekukura. Wedzera kune izvi kuwedzera kwemutengo wemafuta, zvigadzirwa uye zvigadzirwa zvekudya. Zvese zvinokonzeresa dambudziko richagara kwenguva yakati rebei, dambudziko guru kubva pakuumbwa kwehupfumi hwenyika hwakavakirwa pakudyidzana kwepasi rose.
Mhedzisiro yacho inoenderana nekuti hupfumi hweAsia hunogona kutora kubva ku US sesimba rekutyaira. Chimwe chiratidzo, zvichida, kuti Madokero ari kuderera uye kuti pakati pehupfumi hwenyika hwave kuda kusimuka kubva US to China. Dambudziko racho ringaratidza kuguma kwenguva.
Yakashandurwa naBarbara Wilson
(1) L'Express, Paris, 13 Zvita 2007.
(2) Le Nouvel Observateur, Paris, 13 Zvita 2007.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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