Hapana muganhu, zvinoratidzika, kumutengo weropa maArabu anofanira kubhadhara "spring" yavo. Mushure mekuponda muEgypt, Yemen, Bahrain neLibya, kumukirana kweSyria kwemwedzi gumi neimwe kunoramba kuchityisa. Mazuva mana e kubhomba kwematunhu anodzorwa nevapanduki muguta reSyria reHoms vakapa mifananidzo inotyisa uye mishumo kubva kune vakabatikana Bab al-Amr opposition stronghold: yemamosque izere nezvitunha, migwagwa yakazadzwa nenhengo dzemuviri, nzvimbo dzinogara vanhu dzaita marara.
Nhepfenyuro yeTerevhizheni kutepfenyura munyika yeArabu ichiri kujeka, uye kukanganisa kunokanganisa. Chero zvingave nharo pamusoro pehuwandu hwevakafa kumativi ose, chiyero chekutambura kwevanhu hachizivikanwi - uye chinouya mushure megore rekuramba richibuda ropa, kutambudzwa uye kutsiva kwemapoka.
Saka riini Russia neChina dzakapikisa chisungo cheUN chakatsigirwa neMugovera nekumadokero vachishora hutongi hwaBashar al-Assad, vachida kuti mauto ake adzokere kumabharaki uye kutsigira hurongwa hweArab League hwekuti atsive, vatungamiri veAmerica neBritish nevamwe vavo, vakatsinhirwa nevezvenhau vekumavirira, vakanzwa vachikwanisa kuzvishora vachiti "zvinosemesa". uye chiito โchinonyadzisaโ chokutengesa vaSiria.
Asi izvo zvinotora shanduko yehurumende yakatemerwa kunze, izvo zvinosanganisirwa nesarudzo, zvingashanda, kuve nemutemo kana kumisa kuuraya. Nekutema "maitiro ezvematongerwo enyika" ane mhedzisiro yakafanotemerwa, kubviswa kweuto reSyria mumigwagwa pasina chinoda kufanana kumapoka evapanduki ane zvombo, uye kuita zvizere mukati memazuva makumi maviri nerimwe - nechisungo che "mamwe matanho" kana " kusatevedzera" - yakagadzirawo nzira yekupindira kwemauto ekunze.
Zvave zvichitaurwa nevakawanda kuti veto yakapetwa kaviri yakapa Assad mwenje wegirini kuti uwedzere hudzvanyiriri uye kuita kuti hondo yevagari vemo iwedzere. Asi nekurambidza kupindira kwakatsigirwa neUN, zvinogona kupokana zvakare kuti zvinomanikidza boka guru rinopikisa, iro rinotsigirwa neSyria National Council, kuti vataurirane - zvichipihwa kuti zano rayo rese rakavakirwa pakugadzira mamiriro ezvinhu. nzvimbo yekuLibya isina kubhururuka.
Russia neChina dzakashandisa Syria kupikisa kuyedza kwekumadokero kuvharidzira kumukirana kwemaArabu nekuda kwezvido zvavo. Veto iyi yasimbaradza ruoko rweRussia nehutongi hweAssad, ukuwo vakuru veRussia vakavimbisa vatungamiri vanopikisa vari vega kuti kunetsana kuri kuUS, kwete ivo. Uye VaBarack Obama parizvino vavimbisa "kuyedza kugadzirisa izvi pasina kupindira kwemauto ekunze".
Asi inzira refu yekuzvitonga. Vatove vatungamiriri veUS, veBritish neFrance vari mushishi kumisa mubatanidzwa mutsva wevanoda nevamiriri vavo veSaudi neGulf vanobatana, vanonzi "shamwari dzedemokrasi yeSyria", kuvaka vanopikisa uye kudzinga Assad kubva pachigaro.
Kupindira kuri kutoitika. MaSaudis neQataris anonzi ari kupa mari nekupa zvombo vanopikisa. Mauto eSyria emahara ane nzvimbo yakachengeteka muTurkey. Mauto ekuMadokero anonzi ari kupa rutsigiro rwemauto pasi. Uye kana izvo zvikaramba, UN inogona kupfuudzwa nekudaidza "basa rekuchengetedza" vagari, pamwe nemitsara yeLibya.
Asi hapana chimwe chazvo chichamisa kuuraya. Zvichawedzera. Ichi ndicho chidzidzo chakajeka chekupindira kweNato kwegore rapfuura muLibya. Payakatanga, nhamba yevakafa yakanga iri 1,000 2,000 kusvika zviuru zviviri. Pakazobatwa Muammar Gaddafi ndokuzorashwa mwedzi minomwe gare gare, zvakafungidzirwa kanopfuura kagumi nhamba iyoyo. The nhaka yekupindira kune dzimwe nyika muLibhiya kwavewo misa kucheneswa kwemarudzi, kushungurudzwa nekuvharirwa pasina kutongwa, kuenderera mberi kwekurwisana kwezvombo, uye hurumende yakarongwa nekumadokero zvekuti haina kuzvidavirira yakaramba kuburitsa mazita enhengo dzayo.
Russia neChina zvave kuratidza kuti hakuchave nemaLibya akatemerwa zvirango neUN. Asi kuUS, Britain nevanodyidzana navo kuita hunhu pamusoro peSyria kana kuita seshamwari dzevanhu vayo hazvina musoro. Harisi basa ravo chete remazana ezviuru zvekufa muIraq neAfghanistan kana, toti, kutsigira kwavo hudzvanyiriri hweBahrain - kunyangwe ichidzvinyirira kumukira kwayo nechisimba ichitsigira sarudzo yeUN yeshanduko yedemokrasi muSyria. Kwemakore makumi mana nemashanu, vakanyora pasi pekugara kweIsrael paSyria Golan Heights, asi zvino vanovimbisa kuvimbisa "kutendeseka kwenyika" yeSyria.
Dambudziko reSyria rinoshanda pamatanho akati wandei. Chimwe chikamu chayo kumukirana kwakakurumbira kupokana nehutongi hwehudzvanyiriri, huchiri nerutsigiro rwakakura rweruzhinji. Mukutarisana nekudzvinyirirwa kwakasimba uko kumukira kwakawedzera morphed mune izvo Mushumo weArab League waburitswa inotsanangurwa se "armed entity".
Kupokana uku kwatorawo chimiro chakashata, sezvo muchina wekuchengetedza weAlawite uchitengesa kutya kwevadiki vevazhinji vanopikisa veSunni. Pasi, izvo zvakadyisa kuwedzera kweIraqi neLebhanon-maitiro ekureurura kuchenesa uye kuuraya.
Asi chikamu chechitatu - basa reSyria semubatsiri mukuru weIran - ndiro raita kuti dambudziko rive muchetura mudunhu umo kumadokero nevatengi vayo vechiArab vakaedza kushandura mafambiro ekumuka kweArab kuti vazvinakire ivo nekuwedzera kunetsana. Tehran.
Kupidigurwa kwehutongi hweSyria kungave kukanganisa kukuru kusimba reIran kuMiddle East. Uye sezvo kurwisana muSyria kwakawedzera, ndizvo zvakaitawo kumadokero-Israel kunetsana neIran. Kunyangwe semunyori wezvekudzivirira weUS, Leon Panetta uye National Intelligence director James Clapper akabvuma kuti Iran haisi "kuyedza kugadzira chombo chenyukireya", Panetta akazvizivisa kuti pane "simba rinogona kuitika" Israel icharwisa Iran kutanga kwaApril, apo Iran yakatarisana neyakaremadza zvirango zvemafuta eEU pamusoro pechirongwa chayo chenyukireya.
Kupindira kwekuMadokero muSyria - uye kupokana neRussia neChina kwazviri - kunogona kungonzwisiswa mumamiriro ezvinhu akadaro: sechikamu chehondo yeproxy kurwisa Iran, iyo inotyisidzira zvakanyanya kuve yakananga. Pane chiratidzo chidiki, zvakadaro, chehutongi hweSyria kana vanopikisa vachiita zvine mutsindo.
Kana vanopikisa vasingakwanisi kupfura nzira yavo yekutonga uye hurumende ikasapindira, nzira chete yekubuda mukudzika kwehondo yevagari vemo ndeyekutaurirana kugadzirisana kwezvematongerwo enyika kunotungamira kusarudzo dzechokwadi. Kuti umire chero mukana wekubudirira, izvo zvinozoda kuvimbiswa nemasimba makuru munharaunda uye kunze. Imwe nzira yekupindira kwekumadokero neGulf-mudzvanyiriri inogona kungotungamira mukudeura ropa kwakanyanya - uye kuramba maSyria kutonga nyika yavo.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
dhoneta