Sarudzo yekudzivisa 3.6 madhigirii F (2 madhigirii C) ekudziya kwepasi - chinangwa chedu chemakore anopfuura gumi - hachisvikike: takaburitsa magasi egreenhouse akawandisa uye tiri munzira inodziya zvakanyanya. Muna 10, takava nesarudzo dzakawanda maererano nekudziya kwepasi, asi pachinzvimbo chekudzikisa kuburitswa nenzira dzakasiyana-siyana, takasarudza kukurumidza. Kuburitswa kwegasi regreenhouse kwakawedzera mune zvese kunze kwegore rimwe chete kubva muna 2000, uye kuwedzera kwehutsi hwacho kwakadzikira zvakanyanya sarudzo dzedu.
Nekupfuura 3.6 madhigirii F, tinenge takonzera "kukanganisa kweanthropogenic nemamiriro ekunze". Kana tikabvumira kudziya kusvika, toti, 7.2 madhigirii F (4 madhigirii C) ekudziya, tingangove takagadzira nyika ine bongozozo, kureva nyika ine nharaunda isina kugadzikana (The World Bank Report, 2012).
Pasina kudzikisira kukuru kwehutsi munguva pfupi iri kutevera, tichava nekudziya kwakawanda - 10.8 madhigirii F (6 madhigirii C) ne2100 (PriceWaterhouseCoopers 11/5/12). CIA inotsigira chirevo chinoti "zviitiko zvemamiriro ekunze zvichaburitsa mhedzisiro inodarika kugona kwevanhu vakakanganisika kana (iyo) pasi rose system yekutonga ..." (National Research Council 2013).
Nyevero dzemasangano iwayo nevamwe dzinoratidza mazana ezvidzidzo zvesainzi zvakaongororwa nevezera izvo zvinoumba hwaro hwezvinetswa zvazvino uno.
Nhasi, nharaunda yepasi rose yakatarisana nesarudzo yakakosha: kuderedza kuburitswa, kana kugamuchira kupisa kwepasi izvo zvinogona kuita kuti nyika yedu isazivikanwe.
Mamiriro akakosha uye nguva yesarudzo iyi haina kutaurwa zvakanaka. Senyika, isu hatina ruzivo rwakanaka pamusoro pekudziya kwepasi. Nekuda kwekusaziva uku, vanhu vekuAmerica vachiri kuita sevasingade kuda uye kutora marongero ekudzikisa zvakanyanya CO2 uye kumwe kuburitswa kwegasi rinopisa. Panguva imwecheteyo, China, India nedzimwe nyika dzinoti dzicharamba dzichiwedzera kubudiswa kusvika munenge muna 2025 kana 30. Mukushayikwa kwechibvumirano chepasi rose chinoshanda, kubuda, uye naizvozvo kudziya kwepasi, kucharamba kuchiwedzera.
Kuedza kwakadzokororwa kudzikamisa nekudzikisa kuburitswa kwepasi rose kwave kutadza kufanofungidzira - misangano ichangoburwa yeDoha yakamisa kunyora chibvumirano chitsva chekudzikisa hutsi kusvika muna 2015, uye ndokumisa zuva rekutanga miganhu yekuburitsa ku2020. Nhoroondo refu yekukundikana kwezvibvumirano zvekuburitsa inoratidza kuti 2020 zuva rakatarwa rekuderedzwa chaiko kwepasi rose mukuburitswa kungangopotsa.
Cap-and-trade yekudzikisa kabhoni emissions haina kushanda - kwete muEU, kwete muNortheast US - kwete chero kupi. Emissions yakaderedzwa muzviitiko zvishoma apo mutero wekabhoni wakaiswa (mune dzimwe nyika dzeEU, Australia, neCosta Rica). Nekudaro, mune zvinoshanda, hapana kudzora kwepasirese pakubuda kwegasi rinopisa: hapana US kana chero sangano repasi rose rakatora marongero kana zvibvumirano zvekudzikisa zvinobudirira kuburitswa.
Pasi rose, kuburitsa kabhoni hakuchadzoreki, uye ndizvo zvakaitawo mamiriro ekunze. Ndiyo nhamo ye commons writ great.
Ngatitii hapana chatichaita munguva pfupi iri kutevera kuderedza zvakanyanya uye zvishoma nezvishoma kuburitsa. Izvi zvingangounza 7.2 madhigirii F ekudziya panosvika 2060, uye ingave kudziya kwepasirese, asi kungave kushoma pamusoro pemakungwa (70% yepasi) nezvimwe zvakawanda pamusoro penyika. Maguta ari munzvimbo dzakakwirira uye maguta makuru ose aizova anodziya zvikuru; Tembiricha yekumabvazuva kweNorth America yemudhorobha inogona kudziya 18 degrees F pane tembiricha dzanhasi dziri kutopisa dzechirimo (100 – 110). Tembiricha ye118 kusvika 128 madhigirii F ndiyo inouraya tembiricha yezhizha kune vanhu vazhinji.
Nzvimbo dzekurima dzanhasi dzinogona kudziyirwa ne9 - 14 madhigirii F, zvichikonzera kudzikiswa kukuru mukubudirira; mabasa mazhinji aripo ekurima anozoda kudzokororwa kutamira kunzvimbo dzine mamiriro akanaka ekushisa, chiedza chezuva, mwando nevhu.
Nyika inodziya ye7.2 madhigirii F "inogona kunge iri iyo nharaunda, maguta uye nyika dzingasangana nekuvhiringidzika kwakanyanya, kukuvadzwa uye kubviswa, uye dzakawanda dzenjodzi idzi dzakapararira zvisina kuenzana" (World Bank Report 2012). Nyika dzakaorera dzine mvura yakawanda nhasi dzingave dzisina kuoma. Mvura yekudiridza, inoyananiswa iye zvino nechando uye/kana chando, inogona kudzikira sezvo aizi inonyunguduka uye sinou yotadza kuungana. Vapoteri vemamiriro ekunze, muzviverengero zvikuru, sezvingabvira vaizoedza kutama, vachiparira nyongano. Zvinhu zvinokosha nhasi (mafuro, nzvimbo dzekutandarira, masango, mapurazi, mamwe maguta nemaguta) zvinogona kuzonyanya kukosha - kana kusakosha. Mumasango anopisa uye akaoma zvikuru, mwoto wakapararira ungava wakajairika, uye marudzi achachinja; munzvimbo dzePNW, mamiriro ekunze angangove achifamba akananga kuchamhembe anenge mamaira matatu pagore kana kupfuura.
Mamwe masisitimu epasi rose ekurima/ecology angangodonha. Permafrost kunyunguduka, kuburitsa methane (gasi rine simba regreenhouse) muhuwandu hukuru hunogona kukurumidzira kudziya zvakanyanya. Shanduko dzinogona kushanduka kubva pakuwedzera kuenda kune shanduko; kuchinja kungave kusati kwamboitika. Hapana humbowo hwekuti nyika inodziya 7.2 madhigirii F ingave yakagadzikana; hapana pakareoclimatic precedents yekukurumidza, mammoth ecological shanduko se7.2 degrees F yekudziya inogona kuunza.
Ikozvino mumhepo CO2 concentration (392 ppm) yakakwirira kudarika yemamiriro ekunze uye geologic humbowo kubva ku prehistoric eras inoratidza kuti yakaitika chero nguva mumakore gumi nemashanu apfuura.
Mukushaikwa kwekutsva, kwakakosha kuderedzwa kwehutsi, tinogona kuve ne7.2 madhigirii F ekudziya panosvika 2060, makore makumi mana nemanomwe kubva zvino.
Sekuona kwangu, zvipingamupinyi zvekutanga zvekudzikisa kuburitswa zvakapetwa katatu. Chekutanga, purofiti yakakura inoitwa kubva kumafuta ezvicherwa. (Dzimwe dzemhindu idzodzo dzinoiswa mumapepa enhema anoshandiswa kupa kusava nechokwadi nezvesayenzi.) Chechipiri, kuratidzwa kweramangwana pasi pe1) kuwedzera kudziya kwepasi kana kuti 2) pasina kudziya asi nesimba shoma, hazviratidzike sechokwadi kune vakawanda. - vanoita sevasinganzwisisike; zvisingaiti; dystopian. Chechitatu, tsika yedu inotsigira maonero anovenga kubvunza, sainzi uye chikonzero - maonero anowanzo dzika midzi murudo rwevanhu rusina ruzivo rwenhoroondo inofungidzirwa.
Sezvo hurumende dzikasaita, shanduko ingangouya, kana zvakadaro, kubva kune vanorwira masimba.
Mamwe mapoka akadai akagonesa maguta avo kuti atendeukire kunzvimbo dzinogonekazve uye kuti vazvipe magetsi ivo pachavo, vachizviparadzanisa kubva kune hydrocarbon grid. Guta rako rinogona kuita izvi zvakare, kana ukamanikidza kanzuru yeguta rayo kuti iise solar panel uye mhepo turbines.
Zvidyarwa zvemarasha zvinosvibisa zvakanyanya uye zvinenge zvese zviri kutyora mutemo weClean Air Act. Iyo Sierra Club yakabudirira kumhan'ara vamwe vevakapara mhosva zvakanyanya, zvichikonzera kuvharwa kwezvidyarwa uye kushandisa gasi rinochenesa kana rinowanikwazve panzvimbo. Vatsigiri vanofanira kuvhomora zvese zvinomira kuvhara zvirimwa zvemarasha.
Hezvino zvimwe zvinhu (pakati pezvizhinji) zvaunogona kuita kupindura dambudziko iri.
Muzviitiko zvakawanda, zvinokwanisika kungoshandisa simba shoma. Svedera pedyo nebasa kana kutamira kumaguta ane mafambiro akanaka everuzhinji, Paunenge uchikwanisa kuchovha bhasikoro kuenda kwauri kuenda, edza kuzviita (izvi zvakare zviri nani kune hutano hwako). Ita shuwa kuti imba yako ine insulated.
Chechipiri, ziva kuti panenge pasisina simba rekuchinja, uye kukurumidza kukuru kuenderera mberi nefossil-fuel-use status quo. Shandura kuziva ikoko kuita chiito. Shandura hupenyu hwako nekudyara simba rako mukumanikidza hurumende yedu kunyatso kugadzirisa kudziya. Dzvanya iyo taboo: ita kuti vavakidzani vako vabatane newe mukuita pamwe chete kuita kuti US iite chinhu chaicho nekutora kuderedzwa chaiko kwekubuda.
Chechitatu, pfungwa dzichangoburwa pamusoro peicho “chinogoneka” uye “girinhi” maitiro hadzina kukwana. Havana kushanda. Utsi huri kuramba huchikwira. Mamiriro edu ezvinhu anoda kuchinja kukuru.
Kudziya kwepasi rose uye kuderera kwekuwanikidzwa kwesimba hazvisi zveramangwana riri kure - mhedzisiro yekudziya kusingadzoreki uye kushomeka kwesimba zvinoshatisa zvakanyanya hupenyu hwevana vedu uye kubereka nyika ine bongozozo.
Tom Giesen murairidzi wechirimo adjunct uye anoshamwaridzana naye paYunivhesiti yeOregon, uye achadzidzisa Global Warming Preparedness (PPPM 399) zhizha rino.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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