VaObama vari kutungamira, munyika uye mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzakakosha dzenhandare. Sarudzo iyi ndeyake kukundwa. Asi sarudzo dzinogona kushamisa zvinhu. Ngatibvunzei mubvunzo: Ndeupi musanganiswa wezvinhu ungada kuitika kuti Obama arasikirwe? Uye chiitiko ichocho ndechechokwadi sei?
Hezvino zvimwe zvinhu zvokuchengeta mupfungwa.
1. Iwe haugone kuvimba nesarudzo. Takaona mienzaniso yakawandisa munguva yakapfuura apo sarudzo dzairasika. Kana iwe uine sarudzo dze "nyika" dzinoratidza kuti VaObama vanotungamira mune imwe sarudzo yemapoinzi gumi nemaviri uye mune imwe sarudzo yemapoinzi maviri, inokuudza kuti chimwe chinhu chadzimwa. Zvakawanda zve "sainzi" yekuvhota. Kana ini ndichiona vhoti inondiudza kuti vane muganho wekukanganisa we12%, ndinopeta izvozvo. Sarudzo ine zvikamu zvinomwe kubva muzana zvekukanganisa yakangonakira kukupa imwe chiratidzo chezvakajairwa, hapana chimwe.
2. Vasina kuvhota. Musarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika dzichangopfuura, vavhoti vasina kusarudzwa vakatyora mumiriri weRepublican. Uye ongororo ichangoburwa kubva kuAssociated Press yakawana kuti 1 muvanomwe vavhoti havasati vasarudza. Tichifunga kuti vhoti iyi ndeyechokwadi, vavhoti vazhinji vasina kusarudzwa, vangangoita mamirioni gumi nemasere. Kana vasina kuvhota vakavhota kuMcCain 7% kusvika 18%, ndiko kutorwa kwevavhoti 60 miriyoni veMcCain. Kana ikapararira munzvimbo yehondo chaiyo, zvinogona kushandura mukukunda kweMcCain.
3. “Vasingaoneki” vavhoti. Kumativi ese, tinoramba tichinzwa nezvevavhoti "vasingaoneki" ava vanovavhota. Kudivi raObama, vazhinji vechidiki vavhoti vanonzi vachavhota nguva ino - asi takazvinzwa kare. Zvino kunonzi kune vavhoti vakawanda vachangonyoreswa vashoma. Asi vavhoti veAfrica-America vavhota pachiyero chakafanana nevachena, saka panogona kunge pasina mukana wakawanda ipapo wekuwedzera. Vavhoti veLatino neAsia vanogona kuwedzera vamwe, asi vanhu ivavo havafanire kuwirirana nemunhu mutema. Saka ngatifungei kuti pachave nekuwedzera, asi kwete tsunami iyo vamwe vari kufanotaura.
Kudivi reRepublican, vavhoti vasingaoneki vangave vasiri ivo chete vavhoti vasina kusarudzwa vanononoka kuMcCain, asiwo avo vari chikamu che "Bradley effect," kureva vachena vavhoti vasingazovhotera munhu mutema asi havadaro. t ratidza musarudzo nenzira iyoyo. Sarudzo dzakaona kuti nhamba yakanaka yevaAmerica haizovhotera munhu mutema, saka tinogona kutora dhigirii reBradley mhedzisiro, asi yakawanda sei? Hapana anonyatsoziva.
Saka ngatitii, pane zvese, aya madziva maviri evavhoti vasingaonekwe anodzima mumwe nemumwe kunze. Hatizive pakupedzisira kuti zvinhu izvi zvichatamba sei, asi kukanganisa padivi rekuchenjerera, ngatiti kugeza.
4. Iyo inokunda Republican playbook. Mushandirapamwe weMcCain uri kushandisa hurongwa hwemaRepublicans hwakabudirira mukukunda musarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika kubva kuNixon. Izvi zvinosanganisira kurwisa mumiriri weDemocratic semutero-uye-kushandisa, hurumende huru yakasununguka isiri yeAmerica, ishamwari yemagariro uye shamwari yemagandanga asiri chikamu chetsika dzechivanhu.
Uchenjeri hwakajairika ndehwekuti Republican template haisi kushanda gore rino nekuda kwedambudziko rehupfumi, iro rinopomerwa zvakanyanya kubato riripo. Nekune rumwe rutivi, kana vavhoti vazhinji vachiri vasina kugadzikana panguva ino musarudzo, saka zviri pachena kuti pane chimwe chinhu pamusoro paObama nemaDemocrats chinoita kuti vasagadzikana. Chimwe chinhu pamusoro paObama/Democrats hachina kuvabvumira kuvhara chibvumirano chesarudzo iyi. Saka zano reMcCain rekufamba zvishoma nezvishoma pakutungamira kwaObama vachishandisa bhuku rekutamba reRepublican rekare rinogona kubhadhara zvakadaro mumazuva mashoma apfuura, sezvarakamboshanda nevasina kufunga.
5. Vavhoti vasina kukodzera. Munyika yose, makumi ezviuru zvevakanyoresa kuvhota vakacheneswa, vazhinji vavo pasina mhosva yavo asi nekuda kwekukanganisa kwevafundisi izvo zvakonzera kusawirirana kwemazita avo mumadatabase akasiyana ehurumende. Humbowo hunoratidza kuti vazhinji vevavhoti ava vangangove vatsigiri vaObama, saka mukana waVaObama mune vatsva vanonyoresa unogona kunyarara.
Zvakare, semusarudzo dzakapfuura maRepublicans vari kuita zvese zvavanogona kurambidza vavhoti veDemocratic. Vari kugadzirira kupikisa dzimwe mhando dzevavhoti pasarudzo, kunyange kukwikwidza vavhoti vakarasikirwa nemba yavo yemba uye vachifanirwa kuchinja kero, izvo zvava kuita kuti kunyoresa kuvhota kusashande. Tsamba dzakatumirwa kuvavhoti vashoma dzichivayambira kuti vangangosungwa kana vakaedza kuvhota uye vakatyora mutemo wemumigwagwa. Hapana anoziva kuti kuedza uku kuchashanda sei.
6. Midziyo yekuvhota isina kurongeka uye kutonga kwakashata kwesarudzo. Tave kutonzwa nyaya kubva kumativi mana enyika pamusoro pematambudziko emidziyo yekuvhota. Dambudziko ranga riri "kuvhota" pamichina yekuvhotera yekubata-bata iyo isina pepa rakasimbiswa revavhoti - muvhoti anosarudza mumwe mumiriri uye muchina unovasarudzira mumwe mumiriri. Izvi zvingangove zvichikonzerwa nemidziyo yekuvhota yakashata kwete kurangana kubira sarudzo, asi zvisinganzwisisike kuti anecdotes ese anoratidza kuti kazhinji ivhoti yeDemocratic inopindurwa kumumiriri weRepublican.
Zvakare, rangarira "butterfly ballot" mukati
Zvakanaka, saka ngatiwedzerei zvinhu zvedu zvitanhatu. Sarudzo dzese dzinoratidza VaObama nemutungamiri, asi nesarudzo dzine rekodhi yakasanganiswa, hatinyatso kuziva kuti yakakura sei. Zvichakadaro, panoratidzika kunge paine nhamba yakanaka yevavhoti vasina kusarudzwa avo vakambotyora mumiriri weRepublican. Mumiriri weDemocratic muAfrica-America ane anozivikanwa Bradley maitiro kunze uko. Pane mibvunzo isingazivikanwe iri kunetsa pamusoro pemidziyo yekuvhota isina kukwana, kutonga kwesarudzo kwakashata, vavhoti vakacheneswa, uye kuyedza kweRepublican kurambidza vavhoti veDemocratic. Chii chichava mhedzisiro yavo, pakupedzisira, pahuwandu hwemavhoti?
Tichifunga zvese izvi zvinhu, pane chiitiko chinonzwisisika chekuti McCain angakunda? Ndingati hongu, zvachose. Zvimwe hazvigoneke, asi zvinogoneka. Pane zvakare chiitiko chinonzwisisika icho Obama anokunda nemaoko. Chokwadi ndechekuti, kune zvakawanda zvakawandisa zvikamu zvinofamba musarudzo iyi kuti uzive chokwadi. Asi kana zvese zviri pamusoro zvakamira nenzira kwayo, nyika ichavhunduka paHusiku hweSarudzo.
Sezvo aimbova Mutungamiri Bill Clinton akamboti, "The paranoid win elections." Uye zvino tinoziva chikonzero nei.
[Steven Hill ndiye mutungamiriri wePolitical Reform Chirongwa cheNew America Foundation, uye munyori we "10 Matanho Ekugadzirisa American Democracy" (www.10Steps.net)]
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