Kunobva: TomDispatch.com
Zvinonzwisisika zvakakwana, tsananguro padambudziko riri pakati peRussia neWest dzinogara paUkraine. Mushure mezvose, anopfuura 100,000 mauto eRussia uye anotyisa ruzhinji rwezvombo zvave kuiswa munzvimbo dzakatenderedza muganhu weUkraine. Zvakadaro, maonero akatetepa kudaro anotsausa kutarisa kubva kuAmerican strategic blunder yakatanga kusvika kuma1990 uye ichiri kudzokororwa.
Mumakore gumi iwayo, Russia yakanga yakagwadama. Hupfumi hwayo hwakanga hwaderera zvishoma nezvishoma 40%, nepo urovha hwakanga huchikwira uye inflation ichikwira zvikuru. (Zvakasvika pakakwirira 86% muna 1999.) Mauto eRussia akanga nyonganiso. Panzvimbo pekutora mukana wekugadzira hurongwa hutsva hweEurope hwaisanganisira Russia, Mutungamiri Bill Clinton nechikwata chake chezvemitemo yekunze vakauparadza nekufunga kuwedzera NATO vachityisidzira kumiganhu yenyika iyoyo. Wakadaro mutemo wakarasika wakavimbisa kuti Europe yaizopatsanurwa zvakare, kunyangwe Washington yakagadzira hurongwa hutsva hwaibvisa uye zvishoma nezvishoma kuparadzanisa post-Soviet Russia.
Vanhu vekuRussia vakavhiringidzika - zvakare vaifanira kunge vakanetseka.
Panguva iyoyo, Clinton nekambani vairumbidza Mutungamiri weRussia Boris Yeltsin sedemocrat. (Hazvinetse kuti aive nazvo lobbed tank shells paparamende yake yakarasika muna 1993 uye, muna 1996, akakunda musarudzo dzisina kururama, abetted zvinoshamisa zvakakwana naWashington.) Vakamurumbidza nekutanga "shanduko" kune hupfumi hwemusika, iyo, seNobel Laureate Svetlana Alexievich yakarongedzerwa zvakanyanya mubhuku rake. Second Hand Time, zvaizopinza mamiriyoni evanhu vokuRussia muurombo noโkudzoresaโ mitengo uye kuderedza mabasa anopiwa nehurumende.
Sei, maRussia aizvibvunza, Washington yaizosundidzira mubatanidzwa weCold War NATO padyo nemiganhu yavo, vachiziva kuti Russia inodedera yakanga isingakwanisi kuisa njodzi chero nyika yeEurope?
Mubatanidzwa Wakaponeswa kubva Kukanganwa
Nehurombo, avo vakamhanya kana kupesvedzera mutemo weAmerica wekune dzimwe nyika havana kuwana nguva yekufungisisa mubvunzo uri pachena wakadaro. Mushure mezvose, pakanga paine nyika kunze uko kune simba guru repasi kuti ritungamirire uye, kana US yakapambadza nguva pakuongorora, "sango," seane simba neoconservative mufungi. Robert Kagan mukutaura, yaizokura zvakare uye nyika yaizoโiswa panjodzi.โ Saka, maClintonite nevatevedzeri vavo muWhite House vakawana zvikonzero zvitsva zvekusimudzira kushandisa simba reAmerica, gadziriso yaizotungamira kune serial mishandirapamwe yekupindira uye social engineering.
Kuwedzera kweNATO kwaive kuratidzwa kwekutanga kweiyo millenarian mindset, chimwe chinhu nyanzvi yezvechitendero Reinhold Niebuhr akange ayambira nezvake mubhuku rake rekare, The Irony yeAmerican History. Asi ndiani muWashington aiteerera, apo nyika neramangwana zvaigadzirwa nesu, uye isu chete, mune chii Washington Post Neoconservative munyori Charles Krauthammer akapemberera muna 1990 seyekupedzisira "unipolar nguvaโ- imwe iyo, kekutanga, United States yaizova nesimba risingaenzaniswi?
Zvakadaro, sei uchishandise mukana iwoyo kuwedzera NATO, iyo yaive yagadzirwa muna 1949 kudzivirira iyo inotungamirwa neSoviet Warsaw Pact kubva mukutenderera ichipinda muWestern Europe, zvichipihwa kuti zvese Soviet Union nemubatanidzwa wayo zvakange zvaenda? Kwaisave kwakafanana nekufema hupenyu muna mummy?
Kumubvunzo iwoyo, vagadziri vekuwedzera kweNATO vaive nemhinduro dzemasheya, izvo vadzidzi vavo vemazuva ekupedzisira vachiri kudzokorora. Iwo achangobva kuzvarwa post-Soviet democracies yeEastern neCentral Europe, pamwe nedzimwe nzvimbo dzekondinendi, inogona "kubatanidzwa" nekugadzikana kwaizongopihwa neNATO kana yangovapinza muzvikamu zvayo. Kunyatso kuti mubatanidzwa wemauto waifanirwa kusimudzira demokrasi, hongu, hauna kumbobvira watsanangurwa, kunyanya kupihwa rekodhi yemabatanidzwa epasirese eAmerica ayo akange aisanganisira zvinofarirwa nemukuru wePhilippine. Ferdinand Marcos, Girisi pasi pemakoloni, uye achitongwa nemauto Teki.
Uye, chokwadika, kana vagari veyaichimbova Soviet Union zvino vaida kukumbanira kirabhu, ivo vaigona sei kurambwa nenzira yakarurama? Zvakanga zvisina basa kuti Clinton nechikwata chake chezvekunze kwenyika vanga vasina kugadzira zano rekupindura kudiwa kuri kuita munzvimbo iyoyo yepasi. Zvakapesana nazvo, funga iyo yeanoroji yehurongwa kune Say's Law mune zvehupfumi: vakagadzira chigadzirwa uye zvinodiwa zvakatevedzwa.
Zvematongerwo enyika zvemumba zvakapesvedzerawo sarudzo yekusundira NATO kumabvazuva. Mutungamiri Clinton akange aine chip pafudzi rake nezvekushaya kwake magwaro ekurwa. Kufanana nevatungamiriri vazhinji veAmerica (31 kutaura chokwadi), akange asati amboshanda muchiuto, nepo mupikisi wake musarudzo dzemuna 1996, Senator Bob Dole, akanga akuvara zvakaipisisa paHondo Yenyika II. Zvakatonyanya kuipa, kunzvenga kwake dhizaini yenguva yeVietnam yanga iri vakabata pamusoro nevatsoropodzi vake, saka akanzwa achimanikidzwa kuratidza vatengesi vemagetsi veWashington kuti aive nedumbu uye hunhu hwekuchengetedza hutungamiriri hwepasirese hweAmerica uye kusagadzikana kwemauto.
Muchokwadi, nekuti vazhinji vavhoti vaisafarira mutemo wekunze, kana zvakadaro Clinton uye izvo zvakapa muganho kune avo vari mukutonga kwake akazvipira zvakadzama kuwedzera kweNATO. Kubva muna 1993, pakatanga kurukurirano pamusoro payo nemwoyo wose, pakanga pasina anokosha wokudzipikisa. Zvakatonyanya kuipa, mutungamiri wenyika, wezvematongerwo enyika ane njere, akaona kuti chirongwa ichi chingatomubatsira kukwezva vavhoti musarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika dza1996, kunyanya kuMadokero, kumusha kumamiriyoni evaAmerica vane midzi yekumabvazuva nepakati peEurope.
Uyezve, nerutsigiro rwakanga rwaitwa neNATO mukati mechizvarwa cheWashington chekuchengetedzwa kwenyika uye indasitiri yezvidziviriro, pfungwa yekurova mothballing yaive isingafungidzike, sezvo yakaonekwa seyakakosha kuenderera mberi kwehutungamiriri hwepasirese hweAmerica. Kushanda semudziviriri pakunaka kwakapa United States simba rakakura munzvimbo dzepasirese dzesimba rehupfumi panguva iyoyo. Uye vakuru vakuru, vafunge, vadzidzisi, uye vatori venhau - avo vese vakashandisa simba rakawanda pamitemo yekunze uye vaine hanya nazvo kupfuura vamwe vanhu vese - vakaona zvichifadza kugamuchirwa munzvimbo dzakadai semumiriri wepasirese. simba rinotungamirira.
Pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu, Yeltsin anopokana kuNATO kusundira kumabvazuva (zvisinei zvipikirwa zvemuromo yakaitwa kumukuru wekupedzisira weSoviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, kuti asadaro) aigona kufuratirwa nyore nyore. Mushure mezvose, Russia yakanga isina kusimba zvakanyanya. Uye munguva idzodzo dzekupedzisira dzeCold War, hapana akambofunga kuwedzera kweNATO. Saka, kutengesa? Paradzai pfungwa! Hazvina mhosva kuti Gorbachev akatsiga nhanho dzakadaro uye akazviita zvakare izvi zvakapfuura Zvita.
Unokohwa Zvaunodzvara
Mutungamiri weRussia Vladimir Putin parizvino ari kusunda kumashure, zvakaoma. Sezvo ashandura mauto eRussia kuita simba rinotyisa, ane tsandanyama Yeltsin yakashaikwa. Asi kubvumirana mukati meWashington Beltway kunoramba kuri kuti zvichemo zvake pamusoro pekuwedzera kweNATO hazvisi chinhu kunze kwekunyengera kunoreva kuvanza kunetseka kwake kwechokwadi: Ukraine yedemokrasi. Iyo dudziro inoregedza iyo US zviri nyore kune chero mutoro wezvinoitika zviri kuitika.
Nhasi, muWashington, hazvina basa kuti kupokana kweMoscow kwakatangira kusarudzwa kwaPutin semutungamiri muna 2000 kana kuti, pane imwe nguva, vakanga vasiri vatungamiri veRussia chete vaisada pfungwa iyi. Muma1990, vanoverengeka vakakurumbira veAmerica vakazvipikisa uye vakanga vasina chavanosiya. Pakati pavo paive nenhengo dzekuvambwa dzine zvitupa zvisingaite zveCold War: George Kennan, baba vedzidziso yekudzivirira; Paul Nitze, hawk akashanda mukutonga kweReagan; munyori wenhau dzakaitika weHarvard weRussia Richard Pipes, mumwewo akaomarara; Senator Sam Nunn, rimwe remanzwi ane simba pamusoro pekuchengetedzwa kwenyika muCongress; Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, aimbova mumiriri weU.S. kuUnited Nations; uye Robert McNamara, Lyndon Johnson's Secretary of Defense. Yambiro dzavo dzese dzakafanana zvinoshamisa: kuwedzera kweNATO kwaizokanganisa hukama neRussia, uku ichibatsira kusimudzira mukati mayo masimba ehutongi uye enyika.
Utongi hwaClinton hwainyatsoziva kupikisa kweRussia. Muna October 1993, somuenzaniso, James Collins, charge dโaffaires pamuzinda weU.S. tambo kuMunyori weHurumende Warren Christopher, paakanga ava kuda kuenda kuMoscow kunosangana naYeltsin, achimuyambira kuti kuwedzera kweNATO kwaiva "neuralgic kune vokuRussia" nokuti, mumeso avo, yaizoparadzanisa Europe uye ikavavhara kunze. Akayambira kuti kuwedzera kwemubatanidzwa muCentral neEastern Europe "kuchadudzirwa pasi rose muMoscow sekunangwa kuRussia neRussia chete" uye zvichionekwa se "neo-containment."
Gore rimwe chetero, Yeltsin aizotumira a tsamba kuna Clinton (nevatungamiri veUnited Kingdom, France, neGermany) vachipikisa zvikuru kuwedzera kweNATO kana zvaireva kubvuma nyika dzaimbove dzeSoviet kunze kweRussia. Izvozvo, akafanotaura, "zvichakanganisa kuchengeteka kweEurope." Gore rakatevera, akanetsana pachena naClinton, nyevero kuti kuwedzera kwakadaro kwaizoโdyara mhodzi yokusavimbanaโ uye โkupinza Europe yapashure peHondo Yemashoko murugare rusingadzorwi.โ Mutungamiri weAmerica akarasa kuramba kwake: sarudzo yekupa yaimbova nhengo dzeSoviet Union mumubatanidzwa wekutanga wekuwedzera mu1999 yakanga yatotorwa.
Vadziviriri vemubatanidzwa zvino vanoti Russia yakazvigamuchira nekusaina 1997 NATO-Russia Yekutanga Mutemo. Asi Moscow yakanga isina sarudzo, ichitsamira ipapo mabhiriyoni emadhora muzvikwereti zveInternational Monetary Fund (zvinogoneka chete nemvumo yeUnited States, nhengo yesangano iro rine simba zvakanyanya). Saka, yakaita simba rekudikanwa. Gwaro iro, ichokwadi, rinoratidza demokrasi uye kuremekedza nharaunda yenyika dzeEurope, misimboti Putin haana chaakaita asi kutsigira. Zvakadaro, zvinorevawo "kusanganisira" chengetedzo mhiri kwe "Euro-Atlantic nzvimbo" uye "kuita sarudzo pamwe chete," mazwi asingambotsanangure danho reNATO rekuwedzera kubva ku16 nyika pakakwirira kweCold War kusvika makumi matatu nhasi.
Panguva iyo NATO yakaita musangano muguta guru reRomania, Bucharest, muna 2008, nyika dzeBaltic dzakanga dzava nhengo uye mubatanidzwa wakagadziridzwa wakanga wasvika kumuganhu weRussia. Zvakadaro post-summit statement akarumbidza "zvishuvo zveUkraine neGeorgia" zvekuva nhengo, achiwedzera "takabvumirana nhasi kuti nyika idzi dzichava nhengo dzeNATO." Mutungamiri George W. Bush manejimendi haaigona kunge akatenda kuti Moscow yaizotora kupinda kweUkraine mumubatanidzwa yakarara pasi. Mumiriri weAmerica kuRussia, William Burns - iye zvino ave mukuru weCIA - akange ayambira netambo mwedzi miviri yapfuura kuti vatungamiriri veRussia vaiona mukana uyu sekutyisidzira kuchengetedzeka kwavo. Izvozvo waya, yava kuwanika pachena, vose vakatoona kuparara kwechitima sezvatiri kupupurira iye zvino.
Asi yaive hondo yeRussia-Georgia - ine zvisingawanzo siyana yakaratidzwa zvisizvo seyasina kudziviswa, kurwiswa kwakatangwa neMoscow - izvo zvakapa chiratidzo chekutanga Vladimir Putin akange apfuura padanho rekupa kuratidzira. Kutorwa kwake kweCrimea kubva kuUkraine muna 2014, zvichitevera referendamu isiri pamutemo, uye kusikwa kwema "republic" maviri muDonbas, iyo pachayo chikamu cheUkraine, kwaive mafambiro anoshamisa akatanga Hondo Yemashoko yechipiri.
Kudzivisa Njodzi
Uye zvino, tiri pano. IEurope yakakamukana, kuwedzera kusagadzikana pakati pekutyisidzirwa kwemauto nemasimba ane zvombo zvenyukireya, uye mukana wehondo uri kuuya, sezvo Putin's Russia, mauto ayo nezvombo zvakapoterera Ukraine, inoda kuti kuwedzera kweNATO kumire, Ukraine idziviswa kubva mumubatanidzwa, uye United States. Nyika nevadyidzani vayo vanozopedzisira vatora kupokana neRussia kune iyo post-Cold War yekuchengetedza order zvakakomba.
Pakati pezvipingamupinyi zvakawanda zvekudzivisa hondo, chimwe chinonyanya kukosha kucherechedzwa: chirevo chakapararira chekuti kushushikana kwaPutin pamusoro peNATO chifukidziro chinovhara kutya kwake kwechokwadi: democracy, kunyanya muUkraine. Russia, zvisinei, yakaramba ichiramba kufora kweNATO kumabvazuva kunyange ichiri kurumbidzwa sedemocracy kuMadokero uye kare Putin asati ava mutungamiri muna 2000. Kunze kwezvo, Ukraine yave iri demokrasi (zvisinei nemhirizhonga) kubva payakava yakasununguka muna 1991.
Saka nei kuvakwa kweRussia ikozvino?
Vladimir Putin haasi chinhu kunze kwedemocrat. Zvakadaro, dambudziko iri harifungidzike pasina kuenderera mberi kwekutaura nezve rimwe zuva kuendesa Ukraine muNATO uye Kyiv kuwedzera. kushandira pamwe kwemauto neWest, kunyanya United States. Moscow inoona zvese sezviratidzo zvekuti Ukraine ichapedzisira yabatana nemubatanidzwa, iyo - kwete democracy - kutya kukuru kwaPutin.
Iye zvino kune nhau dzinokurudzira: njodzi iri kuuya pakupedzisira energized diplomacy. Isu tinoziva kuti hawks muWashington ichashora chero kugadzirisa kwezvematongerwo enyika kunosanganisira kuregeredza neRussia sekufadza. Vachafananidza Mutungamiri Biden naNeville Chamberlain, Mutungamiriri weBritain uyo, muna 1938, akapa nzira kuna Hitler muMunich. vamwe vavo vanotsigira โkufambiswa kwezvombo zvikuru nendegeโ kuUkraine, kuBerlin pakatanga Hondo Yemashoko. vamwe enda mberi, vachikurudzira Biden kuti vaunganidze "mubatanidzwa wepasi rose wevanoda, kuverenga mauto kuti adzivise Putin uye, kana zvichidikanwa, gadzirira hondo."
Sanity, zvisinei, inogona kuramba ichikunda a compromise. Russia inogona kugadzirisa kumisa kunhengo yeUkraine muNATO kwe, toti, makumi maviri emakore, chimwe chinhu icho mubatanidzwa unofanirwa kugamuchira nekuti hauna hurongwa hwekumhanyisa-kutevera nhengo yeKyiv zvakadaro. Kuti uwane mvumo yeUkraine, yaizovimbiswa rusununguko rwekuchengetedza zvombo zvekuzvidzivirira uye, kugutsa Moscow, Kyiv ingabvuma kusambobvumira mabhesi eNATO kana ndege uye zvombo zvinokandwa zvinokwanisa kurova Russia munharaunda yayo.
Chibvumirano ichi chaizofanira kupfuurira mberi kweUkraine kana chiri chekubvisa matambudziko nehondo muEurope. United States neRussia dzaizoda kushevedzera kuda kuzokurukura nezvekutonga kwezvombo ikoko, kusanganisira pamwe shanduro yakavandudzwa ye1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty iyo Mutungamiri Trump. ditched muna 2019. Vaizodawo kuongorora matanho ekuvaka chivimbo sekusabatanidza mauto uye zvombo kubva kunzvimbo dzakatarwa pamwe neNATO-Russian borderlands uye matanho ekudzivirira (ikozvino-kakawanda) kusangana pedyo pakati pendege dzehondo dzeAmerica neRussia nezvikepe zvehondo zvaigona kutadza kutonga.
Pamusoro kune madiplomats. Apa ndichivashuvira zvakanaka.
Copyright 2022 Rajan Menon
Rajan Menon, mumwe TomDispatch nguva dzose, ndiye Anne naBernard Spitzer Purofesa weInternational Relations emeritus paPowell School, City College yeNew York, mutungamiriri weGrand Strategy Program paDefence Priorities, uye Senior Research Scholar paSaltzman Institute of War and Peace paColumbia University.. Ndiye munyori, munguva pfupi yapfuura, we Maonero eHumanitarian Intervention.
Chinyorwa ichi chakatanga kuoneka paTomDispatch.com, weblog yeNational Institute, iyo inopa kuyerera kwakadzikama kwemamwe masosi, nhau, uye maonero kubva kuna Tom Engelhardt, mupepeti wenguva refu mukutsikisa, co-muvambi weAmerican Empire Project, munyori we Kupera Kwekukunda Tsika, seyenoveli, Mazuva Ekupedzisira Ekudhinda. Bhuku rake razvino ndereRudzi Rusina Kugadzirwa Nehondo (Haymarket Books).
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