Sezvo New Delhi neIslamabad vachigadzirira kutangazve nhaurirano yavo yekudyidzana, mutemo weIndia wakanangana nenharaunda yekumadokero wakatarisana nedambudziko risati ramboitika. Magadzirirwo ayo India inogadzirisa mhinduro yayo kune yakaoma uye nekukurumidza kuchinja mamiriro muPakistan neAfghanistan ichapesvedzera kusvika pamwero mukuru mafambiro eimwe yenzvimbo dzinotyisa dzepasirese, chikamu cheiyo crucible umo nhoroondo yepasi rose iri kuitwa. Kusimuka kune dambudziko kunoda kutariswa kwakadzama kwezvimwe zvezvivakwa zvakakosha uye zvakakosheswa neIndia yekune dzimwe nyika mutemo. Funga nezveAfghanistan kutanga.
Shanduko huru iri kuitika mukuenzanisa kwemauto muAfghanistan. MaNorth Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) mauto anotungamirwa neUnited States nemauto eAfghan National Army akatanga Operation Mushtarak ("pamwe chete" muDari), imwe yekurwisa kukuru nemauto ekuMadokero kubva pakapinda Afghanistan muna Gumiguru 2001. kushanda, nemauto e15,000, kwakatanga nekuputika kweMarjah (vanhu: 80,000) mudunhu reSouthern Helmand, nhare yeTaliban kwemakore mazhinji. Kusiyana nemamwe mamishini echiuto neUS-inotungamirwa neInternational Security Assistance Force (ISAF), Operation Mushtarak inoitirwa kugadzira modhi nyowani inodarika kucheneswa kweTaliban. Inovavarira kumisazve hutongi hweAfghan nekuisa hurumende yevagari vemo, iyo inopa masevhisi eruzhinji uye inogona kuwana rutsigiro rwakakurumbira uye kuve pamutemo. Mumakore masere apfuura, maguta mazhinji nemataundi akacheneswa kubva kuTaliban-Al Qaeda nemauto eISAF akaona varwi vacho vachidzoka vozvimisazve. Panguva ino, mauto achaunza hurumende yeAfghan kusanganisira mapurisa uye voramba vachivatsigira. Sezvakataurwa naGeneral Stanley McChrystal, mukuru mukuru weAmerica, kuti: โTine hurumende mubhokisi, yakagadzirira kupinda.โ
The New York Times yakashuma kuti: โKupfuura panguva ipi neipi kubvira muna 2001, varwi veAmerica neNATO vachaisa pfungwa dzavo pakuuraya vapanduki veTaliban pane kuvaka vagari vomuAfghan uye kuvaka nyika yeAfghan. 'Vanhu havasi muvengi', Brigadier General Larry Nicholson, mukuru weMarines kumaodzanyemba kweAfghanistan, akaudza boka remauto svondo rino. 'Huwandu hwevanhu ndiwo mubairo - ndizvo zvatiri kupinda.' โ
Aka ndekekutanga kuti US inotarisa kubudiriro uye masangano ehutongi muAfghanistan - chimwe chinhu chaifanira kunge chakaitwa pakarepo mushure mekudzingwa kweTaliban muna 2002. Kuti iyi modhi yekuvaka nyika ichabudirira here kana kwete hazvina kujeka. Pakuedzwa ndiyo nzira itsva yekurwisa mhirizhonga yakatsanangurwa naGen. McChrystal, inova hwaro hwekuti Mutungamiriri weAmerica, Barack Obama, achangosarudza kutumira mauto eUS 30,000 kuAfghanistan uye kunyora mamwe zviuru gumi kubva kune dzimwe nyika dzeNATO, kusimudza simba reISAF kubva pa10,000 kusvika. vanopfuura 113,000 panosvika Nyamavhuvhu. Kuvhiya uku, kunoverengerwa, kwaizonetesa maTaliban zvakaringana kuti vazhinji vavo vade kuenda kuAfghan National Army (ANA) uye kupinda muchirongwa chekubatanidza nekuyananisa. IUS yaizotanga kubvisa mauto muna Chikunguru gore rinouya.
Kunyangwe zano racho rikabudirira mudunhu reHelmand, zvakaoma kuona kuti rinogona kufambiswa sei kune yasara Afghanistan pasina kuita mauto akawanda kupfuura 150,000. Uye maonero eruzhinji mune imwe yenyika makumi mana dzakapa mauto kuISAF - kazhinji muhuwandu hudiki; semuenzaniso, mumwe anobva kuGeorgia, mana kubva kuAustria, uye vanomwe kubva kuIreland neJorodhani - vanofarira kutumira mamwe masimba muhondo iyo vanhu vazhinji vanoona seisingakundiki. Izvi ndezvechokwadi nezveUS, uko 40 muzana yevagari vanopikisa kutumira mamwe mauto.
Nyaya yakakomba ndeyekuti mauto anotungamirwa neUS anogona kukanganisa zvakaringana paTaliban uye nekumisikidza chimiro chechiremera chevanhu kuitira kuti hurongwa hwekubatanidzwa hwakakurukurwa pamusangano weLondon uchangopfuura weAfghanistan ugone kushanda. Mhinduro pfupi ndeiyi, izvi hazvigone kupihwa rekodhi yeISAF uye chimiro chekunetsana kweAfghan. Kusvika pari zvino, mauto eISAF zviuru zana negumi nezvitatu, achitsigirwa nemauto zana nemazana mana, haasati akwanisa kubata, kumisa kana kuuraya varume vashoma veAl Qaeda vakahwanda mudunhu iri - vanofungidzirwa kuti vangangosvika zana muAfghanistan uye mazana matatu kuPakistan.
Kusarudza hukuru hwenhamba, uye hukuru mukupfuta moto - kunopihwa nemadrones, mabhomba anotungamirwa nelaser, ndege dzekurwisa uye mamwe marudzi ese ezvimwe zvombo zvepamusoro-soro - hazvina kugonesa ISAF kukunda pamusoro peTaliban-Al Qaeda. Chokwadi, mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzeAfghanistan, maTaliban ari kufambira mberi aine chivimbo. Vazhinji vevarwi vayo havakwanisi kujoina ANA, nemubhadharo wayo wakaderera uye hunhu, kunyangwe vakapihwa chiokomuhomwe, sezvinodiwa neUS. Kutevera tsika yakagara yakadzikwa, varwi veAfghan vanokwanisa kuchengeta chiokomuhomwe vachiparadza ANA.
Chokwadi ndechekuti US haina zano rakajeka rekupedza hondo yeAfghanistan - chero zvayaive nayo payakatanga. Hondo yaGeorge W. Bush yeGlobal War on Terror yaive mhinduro yegudo pakurwiswa kwaGunyana 2001 kubva kune imwe nzvimbo ine pfungwa dzechiuto, iyo yaingotonga sarudzo dzakaita sekupomera vatungamiriri veAl Qaeda muforamu yepamutemo seInternational Criminal Court kana. dare rakakosha rakagadzirwa pasi peUnited Nations uye kuvaka Afghanistan nyowani kuburikidza nemasangano egutsaruzhinji uye kutora chikamu kwakakurumbira muchirongwa chebudiriro chinotsigirwa nerupo - senge Marshall Plan.
IUS yaida kuranga Al Qaeda-Taliban kwe9/11 uye kuvabvisa nemauto. Washington nevatsigiri vayo vakagadzira chero nhamba yezvikonzero zvekupindira muAfghanistan, sezvavakaitira Iraq neyaimbova Yugoslavia - kusanganisira kurwisa dambudziko rehugandanga, kuvaka democracy, kugadzirisa nzanga ichiri kubatwa munguva yepakati uye kusimudzira rubatsiro. chinangwa chekusunungura vakadzi veAfghan. Asi sekutaurwa kwaVaObama mukutaura kwavo kwaZvita 1 vachizivisa kuwedzera kwehondo, chinangwa chaicho "chakanga chiri "kukanganisa, kubvisa, uye kukunda Al Qaeda muAfghanistan nePakistan, uye kudzivirira kugona kwayo kutyisidzira America nevabatsiri vedu mune ramangwana". Izvi zvine zvishoma zvine chekuita nevanhu veAfghan pane neAmerica.
Mhedziso hainzvengeki kuti US ichasiya Afghanistan mumhirizhonga inotyisa, iine chivimbo chidiki chekuti "simba reTaliban" rinogona kudzoserwa kumashure uye "kugona kupidigura hurumende" yakaremara - zvinangwa zveUS. Sezvo mamiriro eAfghanistan achishanduka nenzira dzayo dzisina kugadzikana uye dzisina kugadzikana, US icharamba ichivimba nePakistan, kwete chete nerutsigiro rwezvinhu asi nekuyananisa zvematongerwo enyika. Muchokwadi, Gen. Pervez Ashafaq Kayani akazvipira kupindirana nekuwana mauto makuru eTaliban, anodzorwa nehama dzeHaqqani, ari muhurongwa hwekuyananisa US.
Pakistan ichatsvaga kuwedzera uye kudzamisa simba rayo muAfghanistan, kusanganisira simba rayo remauto, kwete nekuti inotya zviitiko zveIndia ikoko. Ichafambisawo chibvumirano chakaoma neUS kune chero rubatsiro rwainopa kumauto eNATO, kusanganisira rubatsiro rwemauto nehupfumi. Pakunyanyisa, inogona kukumbira chimwe chinhu chakafanana nechibvumirano chenyukireya pakati peIndia neUS
Kutyisidzira kuchengetedzwa kwenharaunda
Hapana chimwe cheizvi, kusanganisira mhirizhonga yeAfghanistan chikamu chiri pasi pekutonga kweTaliban, inonyatso kuchengetedzeka kwedunhu. Zvakanga zvakashata zvakakwana kuti US yakasaina chibvumirano chenyukireya neIndia, iyo isingangotenderi zvombo zvenyukireya zveIndia asi inobvumira India kuwedzera zvombo zvayo zvenyukireya. Nekuchengetedza anosvika masere emagetsi ayo emagetsi kunze kwehurumende yekuongorora kwenyika dzese, India inogona gore negore kuburitsa inofungidzirwa 200 kg yezvombo-giredhi plutonium kubva mumafuta avo anoshandiswa neako uranium chete - inokwana makumi mana kusvika makumi masere mabhomba eNagasaki pagore - kunze kwekuwedzera zvikuru nzvimbo dzayo dzehondo dzenyukireya. Zvingatonyanya kuipa kana Pakistan yaizowana rezinesi rakafanana. Izvi zvaizoreva nhangemutange yezvombo zvenyukireya yakakwirisa muSouth Asia.
Zvakatonyanya kuipa zvichave mhedzisiro yekukwirisa India-Pakistan kukwikwidza muAfghanistan, izvo zvine chokwadi kuchengetedza iyo nyika ine urombo, yakakamukana uye yasakadzwa nehondo pamota kwenguva yakareba, yakareba. Izvi zvaizogadzira nzvimbo yekuti maTaliban nemamwe mauto anonyanyisa kuwedzera, zvichizowedzera kukanganisa Pakistan uye kuwedzera kutyisidzira kwehugandanga kuIndia kubva kumapoka ejehadi.
Pakistan inotya basa reIndia muAfghanistan zvese nezvikonzero zvakaipa uye zvakanaka. Iyo yekutanga ine chekuita nenyaya yekuti India inonakidzwa nekunaka kukuru muAfghanistan nekuda kwechirongwa chekubatsira veruzhinji chemadhora bhiriyoni 1.7, chakatariswa pasi rose seyakanakisa pakati penyika dzese. Kusiyana nerubatsiro rwekuMadokero, rwunofambiswa nepakati pevamiriri, rubatsiro rweIndia runounzwa zvakanyanya pasina vepakati nevadiki. Izvo zvakare zvakanyanya kufanira kune zvinodiwa neAfghanistan uye zvivakwa zvayo zvekare, kusanganisira migwagwa yakaipa, kushomeka kwezvivakwa zvekurapa, zvikoro uye nyanzvi dzakadzidziswa. Nezvese nhoroondo, chirongwa cheIndia chekudzidzisa vashandi vehurumende veAfghan, vamiriri, vezvemitemo, vatongi nemapurisa chakakurumbira zvikuru.
Zvikonzero zvakanaka zvePakistan zvekutya India zvine chekuita nekuvhurwa kweakawanda maconsulates neIndia mumaguta maasina mabhizinesi mazhinji ari pamutemo uye kunetsekana kuti izvi zvinogona kushandiswa kutsigira chiitiko chakahwanda uye kugadzira dambudziko muBalochistan, izvo zvinoita sekunge uve humwe humbowo. Izvo zvakakosha kuti India ibvise kutya kwePakistan uye iite Islamabad muhukama hwekubatana muAfghanistan. Nzira yakanakisa yekuita kudaro ndeyekuziva kuti zvese India nePakistan vane zvido zviri pamutemo muAfghanistan. India ine hukama hwemazana emakore neAfghanistan hunoenderana netsika, kutengeserana, mimhanzi, mutauro uye chikafu - Afghanistan ndiyo inonyanya kuunza michero yakaoma uye heeng (asafoetida) inotengeswa neIndia. India zvakare ine chikamu chekuchengetedza muine Taliban-chimiro chekunyanyisa nemhedzisiro yayo yemumba.
Pakistan haingori muvakidzani weAfghanistan chete, ine matunhu maviri asina kugadzikana pamuganhu ayo kugadzikana kwakakosha pakupona kwePakistan. Pakistan ine maPashtuns akawanda mukati memiganhu yayo kupfuura kugara muAfghanistan uye inofarira zviri pamutemo kugarika kwavo nekumiririrwa kwezvematongerwo enyika.
Kucherechedzwa kwezvido zvekudyidzana kunofanirwa kutungamira kune kumwe kutora chikamu muzvirongwa zvebudiriro uye kuve nezvinhu zvinonyanyisa. Izvi hazvizove nyore kuwana chero bedzi mauto achiramba aine simba muAfghanistan uye achiona Afghanistan seyakakosha kuwana "strategic deep". Asi India inofanirwa kuyedza nepainogona napo kuisa kubatana pachirongwa - kana zvichidikanwa, nekuwedzera chiyero che "composite dialogue" uye nekukurudzira musangano wedunhu unosanganisira vatambi vese vanokodzera, kusanganisira Iran neChina.
Izvi zvinoreva kuvandudza maitiro eIndia kuPakistan. India inoda runyararo nekuyananisa nePakistan kwete nekuda kwezvikonzero zvakakosha sekuzvisunungura pamutoro wemakwikwi edunhu, izvo zvinosungirira India pasi nekuidzivirira kuti isaende kuBig League of Nations. Kuyanana kwakakosha murunyararo, chengetedzo nebudiriro mudunhu. India haigone kuchengetedzeka kunze kwekunge iri murunyararo, pamusoro pezvose, nevavakidzani vayo, avo vanofanirwa kunge vari munzira yekusimbisa demokrasi yevagari uye kukura kwakabatana.
India inofanirwa kugadzira zano rekukwevera Pakistan muhukama iyo dzidziso yehukama hwepasirese inodaidzira "kubatana" - mamiriro ekudyidzana pakati pevaimbokwikwidza apo vanosungirirana kudzivirira kusawirirana nekushandira pamwe kuburikidza nehuwandu hwehurongwa hwemasangano, hwakafanana Kudyidzana kweFranco-German muma1950 nema1960, izvo zvakateya nheyo dzeEuropean Economic Community uye pakupedzisira European Union.
Izvi zvinoseta mamiriro akakura ekutangwazve kwenhaurirano yeIndia-Pakistan. Mutungamiri Manmohan Singh akatora danho rekugamuchira rekutangazve nhaurirano paSharm El Sheik Chikunguru apfuura. Izvi zvakakurumidza kukanganisa. Hapafanire kuve nekudzokera kumashure zvino. Izvi zvinogona kuitika chete kana India ikatora nzira yakawedzera uye ikasachengeta kukoshesa mukutsinhana kwenyika mbiri chete kune hugandanga uye zvimwe zvinhu zvishoma sekugovana mvura yenzizi. Iyo "composite dialogue", ine chimiro chayo chakamisikidzwa chenyaya mbiri nenhanhatu dzakatevedzwa kubva 1997, yagonesa, kunyangwe kuvhiringika, kuumbwa kwemhando dzakasiyana dzekudyidzana, kusanganisira kuwedzeredzwa kwekuchinjana pakati pevanhu vaviri uye kunzwisisa kuri nani kwepakusangana kunogona kuwanikwa. .
Uyu muedzo welitmus wemutemo weIndia wekunze kwenyika. Kana India ikasvika panhaurirano ichizengurira, nekuzengurira, uye nekuwana zvishoma, zvinokanganisa kuvaka kusatya kudiki muIslamabad kuti kuchinjana kune zvibereko kugoneke. Kana ichiziva kuti Pakistan yanga ichirwa nayo pachayo, kuti mapoka ejehadi ane simba rakawanda pamusoro penharaunda yePakistan semauto, kuti hutungamiriri hwayo hweveruzhinji hauna simba uye hwakamanikidzwa nevese majehadi nemauto, uye kuti kusimbisa hutungamiriri kunoda hurongwa. mubatanidzwa nemasimba ekuenzanisa uye demokrasi muPakistan, ipapo India inogona kuwana zvakawanda.
Hazvina musoro kutarisira kukurumidza kubudirira muhukama hweIndia-Pakistan. Asi kufambira mberi zvishoma nezvishoma, kunzwisisana pamwe nekushandira pamwe - kusanganisira kupa unilateral kupa kuvhura musika weIndia kune dzakasiyana siyana zvinhu kubva kuPakistan - zvinogona kuwanikwa. Saizvozvowo, kuderedza makwikwi emauto uye makwikwi enyukireya chinhu chinokosha chokukurumidzira.
Zvose izvi zvinoreva kubatanidzwa kwakakomba, kwepedyo uye kusina kukanganisa kunyange tichiziva kuti kumwe kurwiswa kukuru kwegandanga, kusanganisira kushanda kweMumbai-style, hakugoni kubviswa. Iyi isarudzo yakaoma, yakafanana nemushonga unovava. Asi hapana mumwe mushonga wechirwere.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
dhoneta