Pashure pezvakarondedzerwa mutori wenhau weBritain akatanhamara David Hirst so“kumwe kwokumukira kwomuenzaniso mukurusa, kwakabudirira munhau,” vaEgipita “vanonzwa vaberekwazve” uye nyika yechiArab zvakare inotarisa rudzi rwekare sa“amai venyika.”
Kudada mukubviswa kwehudzvanyiriri hweMubarak kwakazara mumigwagwa yeCairo, Alexandria, Luxor uye paSuez Canal. Iko kufara kunobva kune endogenous hunhu hwechimurenga, chakaitwa kunyangwe mhirizhonga yehutongi hwehutongi uye kushorwa kwakashata kubva kune vatatu vanonyanya kukosha veEgypt: Israel, Saudi Arabia neUnited States.
Uku kwaive kurwira kwakawanda kwaisava nechikwereti chekudaidzirwa kwaBin Laden kwejihad yepasi rose kana kuti neo-conservative yekuti demokrasi inogona kutumirwa kuMiddle East chete nepfuti. Kupfuura mazuva makumi maviri anoshamisa, vaIjipita veese mazera uye makirasi vakatsemura script zvekuti vazhinji vasina hanya nehupfumi hwavo kana mafambiro ezvematongerwo enyika vaigara vachivanyorera.
Mhemberero dzinopfaviswa, zvisinei, nokuziva kuti rusununguko runouya pamutengo unorema. Zvinoenderana nekuferefetwa kwematare edzimhosva, vanosvika mazana masere nemakumi mana nevatanhatu vevaIjipita vakaurayiwa mumavhiki matatu ekuratidzira kwakatevera kuputika kwaNdira 846 - inodarika kaviri nhamba yakapihwa mukutaura kwekutanga nehurumende yekuchinja - nevanopfuura mazana matanhatu nemakumi mana vakakuvadzwa neBaltagiya pasi pemirairo kubva. udzvanyiriri hunotsigirwa nenyika dzekuMadokero. Vazhinji veavo vakaurayiwa muCairo vakapfurwa nemumusoro nepachipfuva nemapurisa evavhozhokeri kubva kumasangano anorwisa hugandanga akabatana neInterior Ministry, avo vakapfura kubva pamatenga edzimba dzakapoteredza Tahrir Square kusanganisira yekare American University paCairo building (Khairy Pasha Palace).
Hazvishamisi kuti indasitiri yezvekushanya, iyo inogadzira yakawanda yenzvimbo dzekunze kwenyika, yaparara kwechinguva. Mapiramidhi epaGiza anenge akasiiwa, hapana ari kumira mumutsara kuti aone hupfumi hweTutankhamun muEgypt Antiquities Museum iyo inopinda muTahrir Square muCairo, uye mitengo yekugara mumahotera inonetseka kusvika gumi%. Inflation parizvino iri pa10% (mutengo wezvekudya uri pa18% munyika umo 50% yevanhu vanorarama nemari isingasviki madhora maviri pazuva), uye kushaikwa kwemabasa kunofungidzirwa kuva 40%, kunyangwe ichi chiri chirevo che "official" vanhu vashoma vanobvuma: 2% inowanzoitika.
Pasinei nenhamo idzi, zvakaoma kuwana vaEgipita vanodemba zvino yava kunzi “chimurenga chaJanuary 25.” Mukupesana, kune kunzwisisa kwakaoma, kwakapararira kuti shanduko huru yezvematongerwo enyika mushure memakumi matatu emakore ekuora kunoomesa musoro kunofanira kubhadharwa nekushivirira uye kushivirira.
Pane, zvisinei, imwe yambiro yakakosha: zvibayiro zvemazuva ano zvinozotakurwa chete kana zvinangwa zvedemocracy zvechimurenga zvakabatanidzwa pasina kutsvedza. MuEgypt nhasi mune kushivirira kushoma kwekugadzwazve kwehutongi hwekare kana chero chinhu chisiri cheshanduko yakakosha kune demokrasi. Hurongwa hwehutongi hwakamirira shanduko yehutongi uye vanotonga veEgypt havazoregi simba rayo pasina kupokana. Varatidziri vakaita saNawal el Saadawi, Alaa al Aswany naPierre Sioufi vane chikonzero chakanaka chekunetsekana kuti shanduko iyi inogona kubiwa nehurongwa hwekare, vachishuvira kuchengetedza hupfumi hwayo neropafadzo.
Avo vari mukati nokunze kwenyika vari kuedza kudurura waini itsva yezvamatongerwe enyika mumabhodhoro ekare akatsemuka, zvisinei, vari muhondo huru.
Pamberi paNdira 25
Kunyangwe pasina mubvunzo zvakatuswa nekubviswa kweMutungamiriri aishorwa weTunisia Ben Ali muna Ndira 14, zviitiko kune imwe nzvimbo kuchamhembe kweAfrica zvinotsanangura nguva yekuchinja kweEgypt mazuva gumi nerimwe gare gare kwete zvikonzero zvayo.
Pasina kudzikisa muenzaniso unokurudzira wevaTunisia vachiputsa zvipingamupinyi zvavo zvekutya, vachifumura nheyo dzisina kusimba dzinotsigira hudzvanyiriri hwakawanda mudunhu, pane nhoroondo yekurwira rusununguko kweEgypt iyo yakawana kutariswa kushoma mukuongororwa kwekare kweArab. Chitubu chave kutoonekwa.
Kunyangwe maIjipita mazhinji asina mukana weindaneti, hapana kupokana kuti social media (Facebook, Twitter, You Tube, nezvimwewo) zvaive zvakakosha muhurongwa hwekupikisa hutongi nevadiki, veEjipitori vepasi vaizeza kuzodza vatungamiriri vehurumende. kufamba kwavo. Uye munyika umo vanopfuura 30% yevagari vasingagoni kuverenga nekunyora, ruzivo kubva kunzvimbo dzisingadzorwi nehutongi, senge satellite nhepfenyuro yeTV Al Jazeera neAl Arabiya, yaive yakakosha.
Zvisinei, kwemakore anopfuura gumi, vashandi vakarongeka muEgypt vakatarisana nehurumende yeMubarak mukurwisana kwekuvandudza mihoro uye mamiriro evashandi. Sekureva kwemunyori wenhau dzebasa Joel Beinin, “kubvira 1998 kwave kune kuwedzera kukuru kwekuramwa mabasa, kugara-pinda, kuratidzira uye zvimwe zviito zvevashandi, nekuwedzera kukuru mushure mekuwedzera kwekushandiswa kwemitemo yeneo-liberal ne'hurumende. vanamuzvinabhizimisi vakaiswa muna July 2004. Vashandi vanopfuura mamiriyoni maviri vakabatanidzwa muzviito zvinopfuura 3,000 XNUMX panguva ino.”
Kukwidza muhoro wepasi nekumisikidza masangano evashandi akazvimirira kekutanga muna 2008 kwaive kukunda kwakakosha kwesangano revashandi, izvo zvakazokurudzira mapoka evadzidzi kuti vatevedzere muenzaniso wavo mukurwira Mubarak. Inonyanya kuzivikanwa pane idzi, April 6 Youth Movement, yakatora zita rayo kubva mukuramwa mabasa kwenyika kwakarongwa muna Kubvumbi 6, 2008. Mushandirapamwe wevashandi vemicheka muEl-Mahalla el-Kubra, guta remaindasitiri murwizi rweNile delta, wakaedza. kuvandudza mamiriro efekitari uye kukwidza mari shoma pamwedzi. Mushandirapamwe uyu wakadzvanywa nechisimba nemauto ehurumende mauto ehurumende asati aramwa mabasa, zvisinei kuti ichiri chiitiko chakakosha pamberi pemhirizhonga yezvematongerwo enyika yaNdira iyo inogona kunge isina kubudirira pasina vashandi vakarongeka vakabatana nekuratidzira kutanga kwaKukadzi.
Sekureva kwemuongorori Nada Matta, mishandirapamwe yehupfumi neyemagariro inotungamirwa nemubatanidzwa vachipokana neo-liberal marongero mumakore gumi apfuura "muchikamu chakaisa hwaro" hwekumukira kwaNdira 25. Kubatana pakati pevashandi nevadzidzi vepakati kwakave kwakasimba kana zvido zvehupfumi nezvematongerwo enyika zvemapoka zvaenderana uye zvakasanganiswa. Mapato anopikisa ehurumende, sevamwe vavo mubato revashandi, haana kuita basa rekuchinja shanduko, uye mapoka akanga aripo kare akaita seMuslim Brotherhood akatanga ambomira kutsigira varatidziri kusvikira mhepo itsva dzezvematongerwo enyika dzave nyore kuverenga.
Vanopfuura hafu yevagari veEgypt vakazvarwa mushure mekunge Mubarak atanga kutonga, saka hazvishamisi kuti vechidiki vaive nemukurumbira padanho rekupedzisira rekuedza kubvisa Mubarak pachigaro muna Ndira naKukadzi. Mapoka akadai saKefaya, Kubvumbi 6 YouthMovement uye ayo akabatana kuburikidza neTese Khalid Said Facebook peji akashandisa zvine hungwaru social media kuronga nekuunganidza "muArab street" mumavhiki matatu akakosha.
Zvakadaro, iyi snapshop yemazuva ekupedzisira ehutongi hwaMubarak haifanire kuvharidzira mabheji ekumashure echimurenga, ayo ane chikwereti chakangofanana nekurebesa, kwakaoma kana kusingaite kurwisa kwekuita nevashandi vakarongeka vachipesana nedzidziso yeneo-liberalism.
Maonero akakurumbira (kwete epamusoro).
Achitaura muchidimbu ongororo ichangoburwa yeBrookings Institution yemaonero eruzhinji rwechiArab, Noam Chomsky anopenda mufananidzo wakashata kune avo vachiri kutenda kuti Madokero anokurudzira vanhu vekuMiddle East:
[Ongororo iyi inoratidza] kuti neruzhinji rwakawandisa, maArabu anotora US neIsrael setyisidziro huru dzavakatarisana nadzo: US inotariswa ne90% yevaIjipita, mudunhu kazhinji neinopfuura 75%. Mamwe maArabu anoona Iran sekutyisidzira: 10%. Kupikisa mutemo weUS kwakasimba zvekuti vazhinji vanotenda kuti chengetedzo yaizovandudzwa kana Iran iine zvombo zvenyukireya - muEgypt, 80%. Mamwe manhamba akafanana. Dai maonero eruzhinji aipesvedzera mutemo, US haingodzore dunhu chete, asi yaizodzingwa mairi, pamwe nevabatsiri vayo, vachikanganisa misimboti yehutongi hwepasirese.
Huwandu uhu hunogona kushamisa avo vakazvinyengedza kuti vafunge kuti maonero evane huwori vepamusoro vaimiririra "mafungiro echiArab". Nekudaro, hurumende dzekuMadokero hadzina kumbonetsekana nekufunga maitiro emunhu wese kunze kwevamiriri vavo vane masimba nekuti vaisafanirwa kana kuda. Kunyangwe zvimiro zvedemocratization munharaunda, nzira ye "realist" inofarirwa nevakawanda kuMadokero yakasimbisa 'kugadzikana' zvachose, zvisinei nekuti kudzikamiswa kweruzhinji kungave kuchidzvinyirira sei. Izvi zvaireva kusimudzira vadzvinyiriri vane utsinye, vasingafarirwe, tsigiro inokosha yevadzvinyiriri iyo yakaramba ichicherechedzwa nevaya vakatambura semugumisiro. Iyi nzira inogona kufanira kuchinja nekukurumidza.
Tichifunga nezvenhamba idzi hatifanirwe kushamiswa nekutsigirwa kwavo muongororo yekutanga mushure meMubarak yakaitwa nePew Research Center mwedzi mitatu mushure mekunge varatidziri muCairo vaenda kuTahrir Square.
Maererano nePew poll, vazhinji veEgypt (79%) havavimbe kana kuti vane maonero asina kunaka eUnited States uye 54% vanoda kukanganisa chibvumirano cherunyararo chenyika neIsrael (34% vanoda kuichengetedza). Yakaona kuti 39% yevaIjipita vanotenda kuti mhinduro yeUS kune shanduko yaive yakaipa, 22% vakati yakanaka, uye 35% vakatenda kuti maitiro eUS akange asiri akanaka kana akaipa, asi zvakanyanya zvisina basa.
31% chete yevaIjipita vanonzwira tsitsi kune vanoomerera (izvo zvinogona kutsanangura kuti sei kufa kwaOsama bin Laden kwanga kusiri nyaya hombe munyika). Sezvineiwo 75% yevanhu vakabvunzurudzwa vaitaura zvakanaka nezveMuslim Brotherhood (gumi nenomwe chete kubva muzana vanoda kuti vatungamire hurumende inotevera), uye makumi manomwe muzana vakafarirawo Kubvumbi 17 Youth Movement.
Avo vari muTahrir Square vakaisa upenyu hwavo panjodzi nokuda kweramangwana regutsaruzhinji havakanganwe kuti munguva dzakaoma dzekurwisana kwavo, Washington yakaramba ichitsigira Mubarak kusvikira kuratidzira kwakakurumbira kwaita kuti mutemo uyu usashande. Izvi zvinotevera maitiro akatangwa naMarcos, Suharto, Chun, Duvalier nevamwe vaimbove vatengi veWashington. Sezvo Noam Chomsky akatsanangura, "bhuku rekutamba" riri nyore kutevera. Tsigira murume wako kwenguva yakareba sezvaunokwanisa kudzamara zvaita zvinopesana nekugadzira, wobva wachinja mativi uye wobva wataura kuti wanga uchitsigira zvishuwo zvevanhu zvegutsaruzhinji nguva yese iyi. Pachiitiko ichi, vaIjipita vechidiki vakaramba vakabatana kune yakazvimirira ruzivo masosi kuburikidza nesocial media havana kunyengerwa.
Kune vakawanda zvaiita seWashington yainyanya kufarira kuchengetedza chibvumirano cherunyararo chenyika neIsrael uye kuchengetedza Suez Canal yakavhurika pane kutsigira shanduko yezvematongerwo enyika. Zvisinei nekuzviti ndiyo yega democracy muMiddle East, hurumende yeIsrael inotungamirwa naBinyamin Netanyahu yakatsigirawo Mubarak kusvika kumagumo. Pamwe chete nehurumende yehutongi hweSaudi Arabia, Israel ndiyo yainyanya kupikisa shanduko yedemocracy muEgypt.
Western Nightmare: A People's Foreign Policy
Gwaro rekune dzimwe nyika redemocracy uye kudzoreredzwa kwehutungamiriri hwedunhu ndizvo zvinhu zvekupedzisira izvo United States neIsrael zvaida kuona zvichibuda kubva mukumukira kweEgypt. Uye zvakadaro kwatove nezviratidzo zvemafambiro matsva kubva kuCairo, kunyangwe pasi pehurumende yekuchinja inotungamirwa neSupreme Council yeArmed Forces. Zvizhinji zvezvakaitika kubva muna Kukadzi zvakashamisa United States neIsrael zvachose.
Sekureva kwemupepeti weThe Guardian, Mubarak naSuleiman vachiripo, gonhi reGaza rekuseri rakakiyirwa Abu Mazen. Pane imwe nguva veto yaMubarak yeHamas yakanyangarika naye kuSharm el Sheikh, mutungamiri wePalestinian Authority akamanikidzwa kukanganisa nevaikwikwidzana naye vechiIslam. Mushure mekunetsana kwemakore mana, gurukota rezvekunze kweEgypt, Nabil al-Arabi, akakwanisa kugura chibvumirano chekuyananisa pakati peFatah neHamas mumwedzi isingasviki miviri. Chibvumirano chepamutemo pakati pemapoka ePalestine chinokanganisa nzira ye 'kupatsanura uye kutonga' iyo yaifarira Fatah uye iyo Washington neIsrael vakashandisa, nerubatsiro rwaMubarak, kudzivirira nhaurirano dzine musoro pamusoro pekugadzirisa kurwisana kweIsrael-Palestine.
Kana izvo zvisina kukanganisa zvakakwana kuMadokero, al-Arabi yakavimbisa kuvhura zvachose muganho kuRafah, ichibvumira kufamba kwakasununguka kwevanhu uye zvinhu pakati peGaza neEgypt. Sarudzo iyi inogona kutyora chibvumirano chakaitwa muna 2005 pakati peUS, Israel, Egypt neEU, icho chakagadzirirwa kudzivirira Hamas kuwana maoko avo pamidziyo yemauto. Nekudaro, kupa Cairo inoibata - uye ichasimbiswa neruzivo rwekuti vanopfuura hafu yevagari vanoda kusiya chibvumirano cheCamp David cha1979 - hazvisi pachena kuti Israel ingaite sei kuchengetedza kuvharika pasina kutorazve Gaza.
Tichifunga kuti Egypt inoenderera nechinangwa chayo kubvumidza Mutemo weRome uye kujoina International Criminal Court, zvimwe zvinonakidza zvinomuka. Zvingava kuchenjera kutumira Mubarak neshamwari dzake kuThe Hague, nokudaro tichidzivisa mhosva yekutsiva kwezvematongerwe enyika izvo zvingangoitwa panguva yekutongwa kwakaoma kumba. Kana akamiswa pamberi pedare, Mubarak angave mutungamiri wenyika yechiArab wekutanga kutongwa munyika yake. Tarisiro yekuimba kwaFarao wekupedzisira weEgypt pamusoro pehupenyu hwake pamusoro pemabasa aakaitira vanobatana navo muWashington neJerusarema - shanduro dzinoshamisa uye kukanganisa "nzira yerunyararo" yeIsrael-Palestine - inogona kusaita kuteerera kuMadokero.
Hurumende yetransitional yayambirawo kuti inoda kutaurirana patsva zvibvumirano zvinopa Israel gasi nekuda kwemaonero akapararira ekuti akaderedzwa zvikuru nevakuru vakuru pamwe nevemabhizimisi muhurumende yeMubarak. Supply inogona kuchengetedzwa asi mutengo uchakwira, tichifunga kuti zvichangobva kuitika zvekuparadza pombi muSinai hazvienderere mberi.
Zviitiko izvi, pamwe nehurongwa hwegurukota rezvekunze kweEgypt hwekugadzirisa hukama neIran, zvinofanirwa kunge zvichipa vanoronga mitemo muWashington neJerusalem hope dzinotyisa. Kana Cairo "ikashandura shizha idzva" neTehran, sezvakataurwa neal-Arabi, zvinokanganisa kuedza kwenguva refu kweUS neIsrael kuparadzanisa republic yeIslam mudunhu.
Kusakendenga kwakavakirwa patariro yenhema iyo inobatwa nevadzvinyiriri pamusoro pemisoro yevanhu vavo yaizogara nekusingaperi, kwakapa nzira kukufunganya kukuru uye kunzwisisa kwakamwe kamwe kwezvingangoreva democracy, kunze kwekutaura kweumwari. Vashoma vanokahadzika kuti kuseri kwezviratidziro, US neIsrael vari kutsvanzvadzira kudzosera shanduko uye kuchengetedza zvimiro zvaifarira zvido zvavo kwenguva yakareba.
A counter-revolution, kunyangwe iyo inotora fomu yeArmy-Muslim Brotherhood mubatanidzwa, inogona kusapfuura bvunzo dzemigwagwa. Musi wa 8 Kubvumbi, vanetsekana kuti kubudirira kwechimurenga kuri kupera uye kuti hutongi hwekare hwakanga husiri kuverengerwa, varatidziri vakadzokera kuTahrir Square vachida kusungwa nekumhan'arirwa kwaMubarak nevamwe vake. ‘Zuva reKucheneswa’ rakabatanidzawo zviuru zvevakadzi, vadzidzi nemapoka ezvitendero vachipikisa mitemo yainzi inorambidza kuramwa mabasa pamwe nekumwe kuratidzira. Kurwisana kuzere ropa nemauto edziviriro kwakaitika, zvisinei Dare remauto raitonga rakadzokera shure mukati memaawa makumi mana nemasere, richisunungura varakanga rasunga, richikumbira ruregerero pamusoro pezvayakaita uye richivimbisa kuzvidzora mune ramangwana. Nenguva isipi vanakomana vaMubarak vakavharirwa mujeri reTora, vaimbova vashumiri vakasungwa, uye Farao pachake akanga ari musungwa ari mumba muSharm el Sheikh International Hospital achimirira kudzokera kuCairo kunobvunzurudzwa. Yakanga iri nguva yakakosha mukubatanidzwa kwechimurenga.
Vanopfuura makumi maviri emakurukota ehurumende nevemabhizimusi vane hushamwari nehurumende vakambosungwa vachibvunzurudzwa. Vanosanganisira vaimbove gurukota rezvemukati menyika, VaHabib el-Adly, avo vakatobatwa nemhosva yehuori pamwe nekutengesa mari zvisiri pamutemo. El-Adly akatarisanawo nekumwe kuferefetwa pamusoro pebasa rake rekubvumidza mauto anouraya varatidziri vasina pfuti muna Ndira naKukadzi, uye kana akabudirira kutongwa anotarisana nechirango cherufu.
mhedziso
Zvichitevera rutsigiro rwakasimba (77%) rwereferendamu yakarongwa nechimbichimbi yaKurume 19 yekuchinja kwebumbiro ichaona sarudzo dzeparamende dzichienderera mberi munaGunyana uye sarudzo yemutungamiri wenyika isati yapera gore, vadzidzi vanochengeta chimurenga vakaratidza kushushikana kuti mapato matsva ezvematongerwo enyika aisakwanisa kuronga. pachavo nenguva. Vakapokana nereferendamu iyi nekuti yakabatsira masangano ezvematongerwo enyika akaita seMuslim Brotherhood uye chero chinotsiva Mubarak's National Democratic Party, yave kuparara asi inogona kudzoserwa. Sezvingatarisirwa pavewo nekupatsanuka kwemazwi matsva ezvematongerwo enyika akambobatana mukupikisa kwavo hutongi hwekare.
Hutungamiri hweMauto hunoramba huri boka risinganzwisisike uye hurongwa hwavo hwematongerwo enyika hunoratidzika kunge huchichinja maonero everuzhinji pane zvakarongwa. Kupa ivo vanochengeta rutsigiro rwakakura munharaunda yese yeEgypt uye pombi yavo yezvemari kubva kuWashington inoramba yakavhurika, vanoita sevasingaite kupandukira shanduko panguva ino. Rumbling muUS Congress pamusoro peEgypt yakazvimirira yakazvimirira mutemo wezvekunze - zvichireva hukama hwepedyo neHamas neTehran - zvinogona, zvakadaro, kukanganisa madhora bhiriyoni 1.3 murubatsiro rwepagore Cairo inogamuchira kubva kuWashington. Chero kuderedzwa mune chero rubatsiro rwemauto kana hupfumi huchaita kuti dambudziko rekukurumidzira rechikwereti rive rakakosha. Apa ndipo apo Madokero anochengetedza hukuru hwakakura pamusoro pechimiro cheiyo post-revolutionary Egypt.
Zvakawanda zvinogona kuchinja mavhoti asati avhoterwa, zvisinei Washington nevamwe vayo vakatarisana nedambudziko rinonetsa. Zvakaoma kuona kuti hutongi hweMubarak hungagadziridzwa sei nehuso hutsva, pasina kupokana kwenharaunda kwerudzi rwakaenda mumigwagwa muna Ndira naFebruary.
Izvi zvinosiya maMuslim eMuslim Brotherhood kana mubatanidzwa wevashandi nesocialist Popular Alliance, hapana angangohwina ruzhinji musarudzo dzeparamende.
Mune mamwe mazwi, sarudzo iri pakati pebato rine akati wandei maIslamist ane huturu umo mumakore gumi apfuura iyo United States yakataura kuti iri muhondo, uye mubatanidzwa webato rekuruboshwe rezvematongerwo enyika iro rakateedzana vatungamiriri veAmerica vakarwisa nesimba mhiri. Middle East kwemakore anopfuura makumi matanhatu.
Washington anofanira kunge ari kushamisika kuti zvese zvakakanganisika papi.
Dr Scott Burchill ndivo Mudzidzisi Mukuru muInternational Relations paDeakin University uye nguva pfupi yadarika vakaenda kuEgypt vari vega.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
dhoneta