Muhurukuro yavo yeState of the Union, VaDonald Trump akanyevera zvinosiririsa ye "vakwikwidzi vakaita seChina neRussia vanopikisa zvatinoda, hupfumi hwedu, uye hunhu hwedu." Achipindura, akakumbira Congress kuti ipe mari yakawedzera ku "mauto edu makuru" uye mari yekukura nekuvandudzwa kwezvombo zvenyukireya zveUS, ichiita "yakasimba uye ine simba zvekuti inodzivisa chero hutsinye hunoitwa nedzimwe nyika kana. mumwe munhu." Uye zvakadaro, mukuita kuri pedyo kwebhaibheri mugore ravo rekutanga muhofisi, Mutungamiri Trump nekusaziva vakaburitsa marongero erudo-wako-muvengi anongosimudzira mabasa evapikisi ava, mafaro asina kumbofungirwa neongororo yaRobert Mueller Russia.
Hazvishamisi, saka, kuti Gumiguru apfuura muBeijing mukutaura kwake kumusangano wegumi nepfumbamwe weBato reCommunist, Mutungamiriri weChinese Xi Jinping vakaratidza rudzi rwekuvimba kunokodzera simba rechokwadi rinosimuka panyika. Ne chutzpah inoshamisa, akazodza nyika yake simba rinotungamira repasi rose pazvinhu zvemazuva ano zvezvematongerwo enyika, zvehupfumi, uye zvezvakatipoteredza. kuzivisa, "Inguva yekuti isu titore danho guru munyika uye nekuita mupiro wakakura kurudzi rwevanhu." Nerubatsiro rwaisatarisirwa rwaDonald Trump, anogona chaizvo kuzviita.
Mwedzi miviri gare gare muWashington, Mutungamiri Trump vakatangisa National Security Strategy (NSS), hodgepodge isina kufemerwa isina kana chiratidzo kana kujeka. Zvakadaro, zvakadaro, zvakadzosa US kunguva yeCold War nekuzivisa China neRussia sevaviri vanopikisa simba rayo, pesvedzero, uye zvido zvayo, kunyangwe ichipa. hapana pfungwa dzakakomba nezve zvekuita panyaya iyi (kunze kwekukanda mari yakawanda mubhajeti rePentagon uye neAmerican nuclear arsenal).
Muchokwadi, zvizhinji zvezviito zvaTrump, kutaura, uye matweets mumwedzi isati yaburitswa gwaro iri zvakapa Beijing neMoscow mimwe mikana yekuwedzera simba ravo nesimba.
Manheru emhemberero yegore rekutanga raTrump muhofisi, semuenzaniso, a Gallup ongororo yenyika zana nemakumi matatu neina dzakaratidza kudonha kunoshamisa - kubva pa134% pasi paBarack Obama kusvika pa48% pasi paTrump - mukutendera kwepasi rose basa reWashington pasi rose. Kune purezidhendi anokoshesa marekodhi, icho chaive budiriro: nhamba yakaipisisa kubvira Gallup yakatanga kuanyora muna 30. China, kune rumwe rutivi, yakakwira kusvika 2007% uye Russia kusvika 31%. Uye izvi zvaive pamberi peMutungamiri Trump zvinotaurwa nyika dzemuAfrica dzakasiyana-siyana dzisina kudomwa mazita se "shithole nyika."
Heino, saka, pane rondedzero yenyasha idzo dzakaitirwa naDonald Trump kune vachapokana neAmerica uye kuti vakaita sei pane izvo, mushure memakumi maviri emakore ega ega ega simba repasi rose kurongeka, ravezve ipasi rine simba renyika rinopfuura rimwechete.
Kubhadhara TPP
Pazuva rake rekutanga muOval Office, sekuvimbisa kwaaive aita musarudzo yake, Trump akasiya chibvumirano chekutengeserana cheTrans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Chinangwa chayo chaive chekusunga nyika gumi nembiri dzePacific - Canada kuChile, Australia kuenda kuJapan - muwebhu yakaoma yemitemo yekutengeserana iyo yaizovhara ingangoita makumi mana muzana ehupfumi hwenyika. Pakati pazvo, mitero yaizodzikiswa uye mitemo inotangwa yekugadzirisa kusawirirana kwekutengeserana, kupiwa kwemvumo, uye kuchengetedzwa kwenjere. Rimwe simba reAsia riri pachena, zvisinei, harina kuverengerwa nekuti TPP yairehwa, pamusoro pezvose, kudzikamisa ramangwana rehupfumi reChina mudunhu nekubatanidza zvachose United States kuEast Asia. Chibvumirano ichi chaive, nemamwe mazwi, chaive chivharo chehupfumi kurwisa China iri kusimukira.
Mutungamiri VaObama vanga vashanda pachibvumirano ichi kweanoda kusvika makore masere, nemutauriri wedare reParamende, VaPaul Ryan nemamwe maRepublicans vachivapa simba rekukasika kuti vataurirane. Zvakadaro, akasiya hofisi asina kuiendesa kuti ibvumidzwe kuCongress.
Chiito chaTrump chezuva rekutanga chaive, iko kukunda kweChina. SaMichael Froman, mumiriri wevatengesi uyo kutaurirana chibvumirano, chakati, "Mushure mekutaura kwese kwekuomerwa neChina, kuita [kwaTrump] kwekutanga kupa makiyi kuChina uye kuti isu tiri kubuda pachinzvimbo chedu chehutungamiriri mudunhu rino zvinokuvadza." VaTrump vakapokana kuti vaidzivirira vashandi vekuAmerica kubva kumakwikwi kubva kunyika dzine mari shoma dzakaita seVietnam neMalaysia idzo dzakasanganisirwa muchibvumirano ichi. Asi mukuita izvi, akafuratira mukana wakasarudzika wekuva chikamu chePacific yemahara-yekutengeserana zone iyo isingabatanidzi China, apo ichipa US neJapan, iyo inogadzira yekutanga uye yechitatu yepamusoro-soro zvigadzirwa zvepasi, iyo inoenda neakadaro. zone.
Washington's Climate Change Hutungamiri Hwakasiiwa
Nekuburitsa muchibvumirano chemamiriro ekunze cheParis muna Chikumi 2015, Mutungamiri Trump vakagadzira imwe nzvimbo yehutungamiriri hwepasi rose - ichazadzwa neMutungamiriri weFrance Emmanuel Macron uye Mutungamiri weChina Xi. Muna Zvita 2017, pachiitiko chechipiri chechibvumirano chemamiriro ekunze cheParis uye nekubatana neUnited Nations neWorld Bank, Macron akatungamira musangano weOne Planet wevakuru vanopfuura makumi mashanu vehurumende nehurumende, pamwe nevatsigiri vatatu vakapfuma. - Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, naRichard Branson - uye vakatora basa rehutungamiriri rakatungamirwa naTrump nehutongi hwake. vanoramba shanduko yemamiriro ekunze.
Mukupikisa VaTrump, nyika sere dzekuAmerica, dzese dzakaisa mari mukumhanyisa kushandiswa kwemotokari dzemagetsi, dzakaramba dzakazvipira kuchibvumirano cheParis. Zvakadaro, zvakare, yakaita mubatanidzwa webazi rakazvimiririra unonzi America's Pledge, uyo wakavimbisa kukudza zvibodzwa zvemamiriro ekunze zvakaiswa muna 2015. Maererano ne aimbova meya weNew York Bloomberg, iro boka rekuvimbisa "ikozvino rinomiririra hafu yehupfumi hweUS." Nenzira iyi, VaTrump vakasiya hutungamiriri pane chingave chinhu chakanyanya kukosha kwenguva refu kumunhu kumutungamiri weFrance uye Xi weChina.
Pamusangano uyu, Macron, ane makore makumi matatu nemapfumbamwe, aimbove bhanga rekudyara mari, akarumbidza kufambira mberi kwaitwa kusvika pari zvino uye akasimbirira kuti zvinokwanisika kugadzira dzimwe nzira dzehupfumi hwepasi rose hunofambiswa nemafuta nekukasira matanho akatotorwa kunyangwe pasina United States. . Akabva atanga kuridza tsamwa achirova mutungamiriri weAmerica kupa 18 masayendisiti ezvemamiriro ekunze - mazhinji acho ari kuUS - mari yemamiriyoni eeuro kuti aende kuFrance kwenguva yese yaTrump; ndiko kuti, kunyika yaikoshesa basa ravo.
Mushure memavhiki mana, mutungamiri weFrance nemudzimai wake Brigitte vakabhururuka kuenda kuBeijing kwavakanga vari kugamuchirwa zvakanaka naXi nemukadzi wake, Peng Liyuan. Mutungamiri weChina akarangarira kuti France yanga iri simba rekutanga rekuMadokero kumisa hukama nePeople's Republic of China uye kuti nyika yake yakamira yakagadzirira kushanda pamwe neFrance kusimudzira kushandira pamwe kwete chete. kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze asi pachirongwa cheChina chakakura chinoda kusvika trillion-dollar One Belt One Road initiative, chirongwa chezvivakwa uye chekufambisa chinoda kubatanidza hukuru. Eurasian landmass mune dandemutande rakakura rehupfumi iro moyo waizorara muBeijing. (Mazuva ano, chete trillion-madhora "zvirongwa" kubva muWashington zvinosanganisira kuvaka kuchengetedzwa kwenyika, mauto, uye zvombo zvenyukireya zvakare.) Iyi yaive chirongwa chepasi rose chaimbove chakajairika kuUS. Macron akadaira nechido, achiwedzera kuti "France inoda kutora chikamu muBelt uye Road Initiative" sezvo "migwagwa mitsva haigone kuenda nenzira imwe chete."
Saka kubva mukushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kuenda kumubatanidzwa wehupfumi hwenyika, US yaive ichisiiwa kunze kuchitonhora. Nzira yakanga zvino yakavhurirwa China - iyo kutanga kwaGunyana 2013 yakanga yatanga kutora matanho ekuchenesa mweya wayo wakasviba zvakanyanya, muchidimbu nekucheka mashandisirwo makuru emaindasitiri emarasha - sezvo ichitsvaga hutungamiriri hwepasirese huchipihwa kwairi. hutongi hwaTrump.
China's One Belt One Road Initiative
Panguva iyo Mutungamiri Xi akatangisa hurongwa hweOne Belt One Road (OBOR) munaGunyana 2013 munzira yeSilk Road yemazana emakore yakambobatanidza Europe neChina, sevhisi yezvitima inotakura zvinhu yaibatanidza Yiwu (nzvimbo yevatengesi vanopfuura zviuru makumi manomwe uye. vagadziri kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweShanghai) kuenda kunzvimbo dzekuEurope kwaive kwatova negore. Yaro yekutanga test run kuDuisburg, Germany, kwakanga kwaitika makore mana akanga apfuura. Zvichifamba nomuKazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany, Belgium, France, neSpain, zvitima izvozvo zvinotakura zvinhu zvakatora mazuva 17 kufukidza anenge mamaira 7,700 2020, zvichideredza nehafu mutengo wokutakura ngarava nomugungwa (izvo zvaitora kaviri kureba) uye namapfumbamwe. -zvegumi mutengo wekutakura ndege (iyo yakatora mazuva matatu chete). Sezvo chirongwa chitsva ichi chiri kutanga, zvinotarisirwa kuti, panosvika 7.5, midziyo inodarika mamirioni manomwe nemazana mashanu. ndichaenda maguta akaita seYiwu kunzvimbo dzekuEurope.
Muchidimbu, kana zvasvika kune ramangwana rehupfumi, Washington iri kurasikirwa neBeijing. Mune ramangwana, maererano nehurongwa hweChinese, mapurogiramu eOBOR achabatanidza China, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central uye Western Asia, zvikamu zveMiddle East neEast Africa, uye Central neEastern Europe. Zvichabatanidza kuvakwa kwepombi dzeoiri negasi rechisikigo, migwagwa mikuru, njanji, zviteshi zvemvura yakadzika, uye magwenya emagetsi, pakati pezvimwe zvinhu. Mari ichauya zvakanyanya kubva kumabhanga eChinese, mari yemubatanidzwa, uye - chimwe chirongwa chikuru cheChinese - iyo Asian International Investment Bank.
Mutungamiriri weCambodian Hun Sen akabatanidza maonero akabatikana paakaita Akadaro kuti "dzimwe nyika dzine pfungwa dzakawanda asi dzisina mari, asi neChina kana yauya nezano, inouyawo nemari."
Muna Chivabvu apfuura, vachitaura kugungano revatungamiriri venyika vangangosvika makumi manomwe nevakuru vemasangano epasi rose muBeijing, Mutungamiri Xi. akapika $113 bhiriyoni yekuwedzera mari yechirongwa ichi uye akakurudzira nyika dzepasi rose kuti dzibatane naye pachirongwa ichi. "Hatina chinangwa chekuumba boka diki rinokanganisa kugadzikana," Xi akadaro. "Zvatinotarisira kugadzira imhuri huru yekugarisana." Kunyange zvazvo dzakakokwa kugungano iroro, United States neIndia dzakaramba kuenda. Munyori weDziviriro weUS, James Mattis, akabata mweya wenguva yeAmerica paakanga akati, โMunyika yepasi rose mune mabhandi nemigwagwa yakawanda, uye hapana rudzi rumwe runofanira kuzviisa pachinzvimbo chekutaura kuti โOne Belt, One Road.โโ Asi mazuva ano, US haisi kupa mabhandi kana migwagwa kune ani zvake.
Maererano ne The Economist, 86% yeOBOR mapurojekiti atove kuenderera mberi anoshandisa maChinese makondirakiti, ayo anobvumira China kushandisa yakawandisa huwandu hwayakavaka musimbi nesimende panguva yayo yekukurumidza indasitiri chikamu. Semuyenzaniso, Beijing yakaita mabhiriyoni makumi mana nematanhatu emadhora kuChina-Pakistan Economic Corridor iyo ichasanganisira kuvandudzwa kwemapombi nemigwagwa mikuru inobatanidza kumadokero kweChina nechiteshi chemvura chakadzika chePakistan cheGwadar paGungwa reArabia. Gwadar iri pasi pe46 mamaira kubva kuStrait yeHormuz, nzira yakakosha yematangi eoiri. Izvi zvinoreva kuti mafuta asina kuchena anotumirwa kubva kuPersian Gulf ports kuenda kuChina achakurumidza kutanga kusvika paivhu reChinese nepombi mushure merwendo rwemugungwa rwakadzikira zvakanyanya, zvichikonzera kuchengetedzeka kwenguva uye mari.
Kuda kweBeijing kuve netsoka kune dzimwe nyika uye kuwedzera pfungwa yeOBOR kupfuura Eurasia, kunyanya kuAfrica, kwave kunakidza. Pakati pa1976 na2016, semuenzaniso, China yakavaka njanji huru shanu muAfrica, kuperekedza Vashandi veChina vanosvika zviuru makumi mashanu kuti vapedze makiromita zana nemakumi mashanu emakiromita eTanzania-Zambia Railway. Mamwe mapurojekiti masere enjanji ave kuenderera mberi.
Pamusangano weWorld Economic Forum uchangoburwa muDavos, vakuru veChinese vakatotamba chirongwa cheOBOR chakabatana neramangwana rine kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze - "Polar Silk Road" iyo, maererano ne ari New York Times, "yaizobatanidza China kuEurope neAtlantic kuburikidza nenzira yengarava kupfuura panonyunguduka aizi yeArctic." Muchirevo chechinyorwa chino, marongero aDonald Trump eAmerica Chekutanga anofanirwa kutorwa se "ligi hombe" kusimuka kweChina.
Zvichakadaro, kuMiddle Eastโฆ
Zvakadini nerimwe simba guru rakasimbiswa muTrump National Security Strategy kudzoka kuCold War? Russia, petro-nyika ine hupfumi saizi ye Italy, haisisiri "hushe hwakaipa" hwenguva yeSoviet. Zvakadaro, Mutungamiri weRussia Vladimir Putin ane makadhi matatu akasimba muruoko rwake: mauto akagadziridzwa, akawedzera anotsigirwa neindasitiri yakasimba yekudzivirira; chechipiri chepamusoro-soro kubuda kwemafuta munyika panguva iyo mitengo yemafuta iri kukwira; uye yose-chinangwa Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation iyo asaita Indasitiri yenyukireya yemhando yese yezvigadzirwa nemasevhisi, uye inoshandisa zvese zveRussia 360 zvivakwa zvemauto enyukireya. Zvinhu izvi zvakaverengerwa nemakore gumi nemasere aPutin ari muhofisi yepamusoro, izvo zvakamuita kuti aone kuzadzikiswa kwezvirongwa zvake nenzira isingagone kuitwa nemutungamiri weAmerica.
Nekushandisa mauto eRussia kupindira muhondo yevagari vemuSyria munaGunyana 2015, Putin akabatsira kushandura mafambiro achifarira mutungamiri wenyika yeSyria, Bashar al-Assad. Kubatana kwake naAssad kwaive nemativi matatu: nhoroondo yeSyria inobatana neSoviet Union munguva yeCold War; chishuwo cheKremlin chekuva ne nzvimbo yegungwa muMediterranean mushure mekurasikirwa kwechiteshi chakadaro muLibhiya apo Muammar Gaddafi akawira mu2011; uye dzidziso yake yokuti chero boka rinotora zvombo kurwisa hurumende inozivikanwa pasi rose isangano remagandanga.
Wawana kiyi, kana utsinye, basa muhondo yevagari veSyria, Putin haana kungotora Iran chete, shamwari yechinyakare yeSyria, asiwo Turkey, nhengo yeNATO pakutanga yaipokana nehutongi hweAssad. Gare gare, Putin paakaita runhare rwekukorokotedza kuMutungamiri weTurkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan nekubvisa kuyedza kwemauto muna Chikunguru 2016 kurwisa hurumende yake, Erdogan akabvuma kubatana naye mukushandira chibvumirano cherunyararo muhondo yevagari vekuSyria.
Nhasi, nepo hutongi hweVaTrump mudambudziko reSyria huri kudzikira, pesvedzero yeKremlin yatonyanya kutonga. Washington, iyo yakashandisa yayo simba remhepo uye 2,000 mauto ari pasi kuti atsigire uto rinotungamirwa neKurdish revarwi muSyria kurwisa varwi veIslamic State, iko zvino inozviona ine njodzi mukupokana neAnkara. Erdogan anoshingairira nyika yeTurkey, anoona seasingafungi, dzinza reKurds "magandanga" uye nguva pfupi yadarika. akatuma ndege nematangi ake kurwisa vamwe vavo kuchamhembe kweSyria. Washington yakaderedzwa zvakanyanya kuita kune mafambiro eKremlin mudunhu.
Putin ane chivimbo anga ari mubishi kukwezva vamwe vanobatana neUS mudunhu. Muna 2016, kukwidza mutengo wedhiramu remafuta, iro rakanga radzika kusvika pamadhora makumi matatu, Saudi Arabia yakamanikidza dzimwe nhengo dzeSangano rePetroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kuti dzibvise zvachose. Kuti zano rakadaro ribudirire, zvisinei, vagadziri veoiri vasiri veOPEC vaifanira kushanda pamwe chete. Kuve mukuru pakati pavo, Russia yaive mutambi akakosha uye Putin, aine shungu seSaudis kuona mitengo ichikwira, akabvumirana. Kwapera gore, apo kudzikiswa kwacho kwaizopera, Riyadh vakakavadzana nokuda kwekuwedzera kwavo kusvika kuDecember 2018. Zvakare, Putin akatsigira kufamba. Nekuda kweizvozvo, mitengo yave muchikamu chemadhora makumi matanhatu.
Hazvishamisi, Mambo Salman yakava mambo wekutanga weSaudi anotonga kushanyira Moscow muna Gumiguru apfuura. Ari ikoko, iye zvakasinwa 15 zvibvumirano zvekushandira pamwe zvinofukidza mafuta, nyaya dzehondo (kusanganisira chibvumirano chezvombo chemadhora mabhiriyoni matatu chinosanganisira, pakati pezvimwe zvinhu, kutengwa kweRussia S-3 inorwisa-ndege inokandwa), uye kunyange kuongorora nzvimbo. Nekuita izvi, mambo weSaudi akatyora hutongi hweUS (nedzimwe nyika dzekumadokero) pakugovera zvombo zvepamberi kuumambo. Zvakakosha, achisimbirira kuti chero kugadzirisa runyararo muSyria kunofanirwa kuchengetedza nharaunda yenyika iyoyo, iye. haana kudzokorora kurudziro yehurumende yavo yekuti Assad abve pachigaro.
Asati atanga hukama namambo weSaudi, Putin akakwanisawo kukwezva kufarira kweEgypt, mumwe mubatsiri wenguva refu weWashington uye mugashiri inopfuura bhiriyoni remadhora muUS rubatsiro rwemauto gore negore kubvira 1987. Muna Gumiguru 2016, vanopfuura 500 Russian uye Egypt paratroopers kunyange vakatora chikamu mune majoint counterterrorism maitiro mugwenga pedyo neAlexandria.
Kushamwaridzana pakati penyika mbiri idzi, kwakatanga muna 2014 apo General Abdel Fattah al Sisi vakashanyira Kremlin, kwakawedzera simba panguva yerwendo rwechipiri rwaSisi kuMoscow mwedzi mitanhatu gare gare vasarudzwa semutungamiri. Munguva yehutungamiriri hwaTrump, yakatowedzera kusimba. Muna 2017, Rosatom akabvuma kuvaka Egypt yekutanga simba renyukireya muEl Dabaa, 80 mamaira kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumadokero kweCairo, iyo yakarongerwa kudhura madhora mabhiriyoni makumi maviri nerimwe. Makumi makumi masere neshanu muzana eiyo achapihwa kune maEgypt akasungwa mari neRosatom, iyo vanogona iyo kubva pamaodha ayo akazara gore rapfuura, epamba nekunze, akasvika kumadhora mazana matatu emadhora.
Uye saka zvinoenda. Kunyange zvazvo ine simba uye yakapfuma, United States inoratidzika kuva yoga. Kana mune zvayo hondo dzisina zvibereko, mukutarisisa kwayo kunoshamisa pasimba rehondo, mune zvayo kuputsa yeDhipatimendi reHurumende, mukushuva kwayo kuvaka madziro emhando dzese uye kuvhara vanhu vazhinji kunze, mukunyomba kwemutungamiri wenyika. Tweets, mashoko, uye foni, kunyangwe mu "Trump kudonhaโ mukushanya, American isolationism - iwo mutsara wakapfekwa - uri kuwana chirevo chitsva. Paaiimba mantra yake ye "America Chekutanga," Donald Trump kusvika parizvino akatevedzera mitemo yakangorerutsa nzira yekuti shato yekuChina idzvovere ichipfuura Sekuru Sam, bere rekuRussia risiri kure kumashure.
Dilip Hiro, a TomDispatch dzose, ndiye munyori we Mushure meHumambo: Kuzvarwa kweMultipolar World. Bhuku rake razvino (uye rechi36) ndiro Zera reKushuvira: Simba, Pfuma, uye Kusawirirana muGlobalizing India.
Chinyorwa ichi chakatanga kuoneka paTomDispatch.com, weblog yeNational Institute, iyo inopa kuyerera kwakadzikama kwemamwe masosi, nhau, uye maonero kubva kuna Tom Engelhardt, mupepeti wenguva refu mukutsikisa, co-muvambi weAmerican Empire Project, munyori we Mugumo Wekukunda Muitiro, serinovhero, Mazuva Ekupedzisira Ekudhinda. Bhuku rake razvino nderekuti Shadow Government: Surveillance, Secret Wars, uye Global Security State muNyika-Inotyisa (Mabhuku eShimarket).
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