Nyika inogona kuramba, maererano nedzidziso, kuzadzisa chinangwa chayo chekuchengeta kudziya kwepasi pasi pe1.5 degrees Celsius, mwero masayendisiti akawanda funga chikumbaridzo chine ngozi. Chaizvoizvo, izvozvo kashoma kuitika.
Chikamu chedambudziko chaionekwa pa COP27, musangano weUnited Nations wemamiriro ekunze kuEgypt.
Nepo nyika dzenhaurirano dzemamiriro ekunze dzakabudirira kurwisa "kuchengetedza 1.5" sechinangwa chepasi rose mu chibvumirano chepamutemo, yakasvika Nov. 20, 2022, dzimwe nyika dzavo dzaitaurirana zvibvumirano zvitsva zvemafuta emafuta, inosundwa murutivi nedambudziko resimba renyika yose. Chero kuwedzera kwemafuta efossil - mutyairi wekutanga wekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze - kunoita kuti kudziya kuri pasi pe1.5 C (2.7 Fahrenheit) zvichienzaniswa nenguva dzepamberi peindasitiri zvakanyanya kuoma.
Kuedza panhaurirano dzemamiriro ekunze kuti nyika dzese dzibvumirane kubvisa marasha, oiri, gasi remusikirwo nemafuta ese efossil zvakakundikana. Uye nyika dzakaita zvishoma zvekusimbisa zvisungo zvavo kuderedza kuburitswa kwegasi regreenhouse mugore rapfuura.
Pakave nemafambiro akanaka, kusanganisira kufambira mberi mune tekinoroji, kuderera kwemitengo yesimba renewable uye nyika dzinozvipira kuderedza kuburitsa kwavo methane.
Asi zviratidzo zvese zvino zvinongedza kune mamiriro ayo nyika ichada pfuura iyo 1.5 C muganho, zvichida nemari yakawanda. World Meteorological Organisation inofungidzira kuti tembiricha yepasi rose ine a 50-50 mukana wekusvika 1.5C yekudziya, kwekanguva, mumakore mashanu anotevera.
Hazvirevi kuti vanhu vanogona kungokanda mapfumo pasi.
Sei 1.5 madhigirii?
Muchikamu chekupedzisira chezana remakore rechi20, kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze nekuda kwemabasa evanhu yakava nyaya yekupona kweramangwana rehupenyu hwepasi. Kubva kuma1980, humbowo hwesainzi hwekudziya kwepasi hwave huchiwedzera kusimba , uye masayendisiti akaisa miganhu yekudziya kwepasi isingapfuurire kudzivirira kubva mudambudziko remamiriro ekunze epasi rose kuenda kunjodzi yemamiriro ekunze epasi.
Pane kubvumirana pakati pemasayendisiti ezvemamiriro ekunze, ini pachangu ndakasanganisira, kuti 1.5 C yekudziya kwepasi chikumbaridzo chinopfuura icho vanhu vangakanganisa zvine njodzi nemamiriro ekunze.
Tinoziva kubva mukuvakwa patsva kwezvinyorwa zvemamiriro ekunze emamiriro ekunze kuti, mukati memakore gumi nemaviri apfuura, hupenyu hwakakwanisa kubudirira paPasi paavhareji yekushisa kwepagore kunosvika 12,000 C (14 F). Sezvingatarisirwa nemunhu kubva mumaitiro ehurongwa hwakaoma, tembiricha dzaisiyana, asi hadzina kumbodziyirwa neinopfuura 57 C panguva iyi. mamiriro ekunze akadzikama.
Nhasi, pamwe nenyika 1.2 C inodziya kupfuura pre-maindasitiri nguva, vanhu vari tatova nezvazvinoita yekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze munzvimbo dzakawanda, mamwe mafomu uye pakakwirira mafrequency uye amplitudes.
Mamiriro emamiriro ekunze anoratidza izvozvo zvakajeka kudziya kupfuura 1.5 C vachaita kuwedzera zvakanyanya njodzi yezviitiko zvemamiriro ekunze akanyanyisa, moto wesango unogara uchipisa zvakanyanya, kukwira kwegungwa, uye shanduko yemafashamo nekusanaya kwemvura zvine chekuita nekuparara kwehurongwa hwekudya, pakati pezvimwe zvinokanganisa. Uye zvinogona kuva kukurumidza kuchinja, zvinokonzeresa zvinokonzeresa matambudziko makuru pazvikero zvemuno kusvika kupasi rose.
Kuderera kwakadzika uye kuburitsa kwakashata
Kusangana nechinangwa che1.5 panguva ino zvinoda kudzikiswa kwakadzika mu carbon dioxide emissions, asi izvozvo chete hazvina kukwana. Zvichaita inodawo "negative emissions" kuderedza kuwanda kwecarbon dioxide iyo mabasa evanhu akatoisa mumhepo.
Carbon dioxide inogara mumhepo kwemakumi emakore kusvika kumazana emakore, saka kungomisa kuburitsa hakuregi kudziya kwayo. Tekinoroji iripo inogona kudhonza kabhoni dhaikisaidhi kubva mumhepo uye kuivharira kure. Ichiri kungoshanda pamwero muduku zvikuru, asi zvibvumirano zvekambani zvakafanana Kuzvipira kweMicrosoft kwemakore gumi kubhadhara kabhoni yakabviswa inogona kubatsira kuwedzera.
Chirevo muna 2018 neIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change yakaratidza kuti kusangana nechinangwa che1.5 C. zvaizoda kucheka carbon dioxide emissions ne50% pasi rose panosvika 2030 - pamwe nekukosha mhepo yakaipa kubva kune zvese tekinoroji uye masosi masosi panosvika 2050 kusvika kunosvika hafu yemazuva ano emissions.
Tinogona here kubata kudziya kusvika ku1.5 C?
Sezvo Chibvumirano chemamiriro ekunze eParis yakasainwa muna 2015, nyika dzakaita kufambira mberi mune yavo zvitsidzo zvekuderedza kuburitswa, asi pamwero wakanyanya kunonoka kuramba uchidziya pasi pe1.5 C. Carbon dioxide utsi huchiri kuwedzera, sezvakaita carbon dioxide zvakadzika mumhepo.
Mushumo uchangobva kuitwa neUnited Nations Environment Programme inoburitsa zvinoperevedza. Nyika iri munzira yekugadzira 58 gigatons of carbon dioxide-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions muna 2030 - kanopfuura kaviri painofanira kunge iri yenzira inoenda ku1.5 C. Mhedzisiro yacho ingave yeavhareji yekushisa kwepasi rose kuwedzera kwe2.7 C (4.9 F) muzana rino remakore, inodokupeta kaviri 1.5 C.
Tichifunga musiyano uripo pakati pezvisungo chaizvo zvenyika uye kuderedzwa kwehutsi hunodiwa kuchengetedza tembiricha kusvika 1.5 C, zvinoita. zvisingaiti kugara mukati meiyo 1.5 C chinangwa.
Utsi hwepasi rose hausi pedyo nekukwira, uye nehuwandu hwecarbon dioxide yatove mumhepo, zvinokwanisika kuti nyika isvike pakudziya kwe1.5 C. mukati memakore mashanu kusvika gumi anotevera.
Kuti iyo overshoot ichave yakakura sei uye kwenguva yakareba sei ichange iripo zvinotsamira pane kukurumidza kuderedzwa kwekubuda uye kuwedzera negative emissions mhinduro, kusanganisira kabhoni capture tekinoroji.
Panguva ino, hapana chipfupi chekuedza kunoshamisa uye kusati kwamboitika kucheka huturu kuchachengetedza iyo 1.5 C chinangwa. Isu kuziva chingaitwa - mubvunzo ndewokuti vanhu vakagadzirira kuchinja kukuru uye nokukurumidza kwezviito zvinotungamirira kukuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, kunyanya kushanduka kubva kune fossil-based energy system.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
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