Anthony H. Cordesman, muongorori wemauto anotungamira kubva kuCentre for Strategic and International Studies, akaburitsa gwaro. "strategic analysis" yekupondwa kweGaza ichangopera. Anosvika pamhedziso inoshamisa yokuti "Israeri haana kutyora mitemo yehondo." Chirevo ichi chakavakirwa pa "pfupiso muIsrael [sic] panguva uye nekukurumidza mushure mekurwa kwakaitwa nekushanya kwakatsigirwa neProjekti Interchange, uye kushandisa kushuma kwezuva nezuva kwakapihwa neIsrael Defense Mutauriri." Cordesman anosiya kutaura izvozvo Project Interchange inotsigirwa nemari neAmerican Jewish Committee.
Kunyangwe kutenda kwaCordesman mune zviziviso zvehurumende yeIsrael kunobata, vanoremekedzwa vaongorori veIsrael vanoisa chivimbo chishoma. "Vakuru vehurumende, kusanganisira vezvekudzivirirwa nemapazi avo," Uzi Benziman akadaro nyika, "vakazviwanira mukurumbira usina kunaka kana toreva nezvokuvimbika kwavo." "Mashoko epamutemo akabudiswa neIDF akazvisunungura zvishoma nezvishoma kubva pazvipingamupinyi zvechokwadi," B. Michael akanyora mu. Yediot Ahronot, uye "moyo wechimiro chesimba" - mapurisa, mauto, njere - akatapukirwa ne "tsika yekureva nhema."2 Munguva yekuurayiwa kweGaza Israeri yaigara ichibatwa ichirara pakati pezvimwe zvinhu zvakawanda pamusoro pekushandisa kwayo phosphorus chena.3 Achirangarira chitima cheIsrael chemanyepo mukati mehondo yeRebhanoni ya2006 uye kuurayiwa kweGaza, muongorori wemauto weHuman Rights Watch, Marc Garlasco, akabvunza, "Munhu angavimba sei neuto reIsrael?"4 Uyu mubvunzo Cordesman anofanira kufungisisa.
Imwe chunk ye "strategic analysis" yaCordesman inosanganisira kuburitsa verbatim zuva nezuva kuburitswa kwemauto emuchadenga eIsrael uye vatauriri vemauto, izvo zvaanozodaidza kuti "nguva" yehondo. Anoti kutaura uku kunopa โnzwisiso huruโ uye โmuono wakakoshaโ pane zvakaitika. Zvimwe zvezvirevo izvi zvinopa nzwisiso yakawanda zvekuti anozviburitsa kakawanda. Semuyenzaniso anodhirowa adzokorodza kasingaperi shanduro dzechimwe nechimwe chezvirevo izvi: "IDF icharamba ichishanda ichirwisa magandanga uye chero ani zvake anobatanidzwa, kusanganisira avo vanotsigira uye vanotambira magandanga, kuwedzera kune avo vanotumira vakadzi nevana vasina mhosva kuti vashandiswe sevanhu. nhoo"; "IDF haizeze kurova avo vanobatanidzwa zvakananga uye zvisina kunanga mukurwisa vagari veNyika yeIsrael"; "IDF icharamba ichishanda kurwisa Hamas magandanga zvivakoti muGaza Strip maererano nehurongwa kuitira kuderedza rocket moto kumaodzanyemba kweIsrael"; "IDF Infantry Corps, Armored Corps, Engineering Corps, Artillery Corps uye Intelligence Corps mauto akaramba achishanda panguva yeusiku kurwisana neHamas zvivako zvegandanga muGaza Strip yose." Zvichida chirongwa chinotevera chaCordesman chinofanira kunge chiri nhoroondo yekuchenura kwaStalin miedzo yakavakirwa pa "kunzwisisa kunzwisisika" kwe. Pravda uye "manzwisisiro akakosha" e Izvestia. Cordesman anoburitsa pasina kutaura iyo 30 Zvita 2008 yeIsrael kuburitswa kwenhau ichiti Israel yakarova "motokari yaitakura murwi wemakomba eGrad," kunyangwe ongororo yeB'Tselem yakawana kuti anga ari mabhodhoro eokisijeni.5 Cordesman anoti data reIsrael repamutemo "rinonyanya kuvimbika" pane zvisiri zveIsrael data senge kubva kuUN masosi, chimwe chikonzero ndechekuti "vazhinji veIsrael vanofunga kuti masosi eUN akadai anorerekera zvakanyanya mukufarira maPalestine." Saka, kana Israeri ichiti zvikamu zviviri muzvitatu zvevakaurayiwa muGaza vaive varwi veHamas,6 ndiani anogona kupokana chokwadi chehuwandu - sezvakangoita ndiani angakahadzika huchokwadi hwezvakataurwa neIsrael kuti makumi matanhatu muzana yevakaurayiwa muhondo yeLebanon ya2006 vaive varwi veHezbollah,7 kunyangwe ese akazvimirira masosi akaisa nhamba iri pedyo kusvika makumi maviri muzana?8
Kunyange zvazvo achisunungura Israeri pane chakaipa chipi nechipi, Cordesman anopindawo โmubako rinokoshaโ rokuti haasi kupa mutongo โwemutemo kana wetsikaโ pamufambiro weIsraeri uye kuti โvanoongorora vasina kudzidziswa mitemo yakaoma yehondoโ (zvichida kusanganisira iye pachake) havafaniri. kupa mitongo yakadaro. Cordesman's exculpation uye caveat haina kugara zvakanaka pamwe chete. Zvakare, kunyangwe achishora kuti "mitemo yehondo" kana "nhoroondo dzekare" yakarambidza "kushandiswa kweIsrael masimba makuru," Cordesman anoyambirawo kuti haazopa mutongo wepamutemo kana wetsika pa "nyaya yekuenzana." Mashoko ose ari maviri angava echokwadi sei? Cordesman anotsoropodza zvakanyanya mitemo yehondo. Anotaura kuti "kazhinji zvakaoma kana kuti hazvibviri kushandisa." Zvichida zvakadaro asi, zvino, chokwadi chake chokuti Israeri haana kuvatyora? Anotaurawo kuti mitemo yehondo inorerekera nekuti mukuita "haisunge kana kurambidza vasiri vehurumende vanoita seHamas." Hazvisi pachena kuti vakasunga kana kuti vakadzora Israeri zvakare.
Cordesman anoramba achiridza hwamanda kungwara kweIsrael kudzikamisa vanhu vanokuvara uye kukuvadzwa kwezvivakwa zvevanhu. Semuyenzaniso anoti "zvese zvinhu" zvehurongwa hwekunangana nemauto emuchadenga eIsrael "zvaive zvakavakirwa pakuongorora kwakadzama kwakanangana nenjodzi kune vanhuwo zvavo uye nenzvimbo yenzvimbo dzakaoma sezvikoro, zvipatara, mamosque, machechi nedzimwe nzvimbo dzinoyera. ," nepo "chombo chidiki kwazvo" pamwe chete nehungwaru nemasisitimu ekutungamira zvakashandiswa "kumisa mauto akananga kubva mukukuvadzwa kwenzvimbo dzevanhuwo zvavo." Uye zvakare: "Israel yakaronga mishandirapamwe yayo neyemhepo-yemhepo nenzira dzaisarura pakati pezvinangwa zvemauto nevagari vemo uye izvo zvaiitirwa kudzikisira kuuraya kwevanhu uye kukuvara kwechibvumirano." Anoziva zvinhu izvi nekuti ndizvo zvaakaudzwa nemauto ake eIsrael uye ndizvo zvakadzokororwa nenhau dzeIsrael. Anoziva zvakare kuti "zvakawanda zvinonangwa neHamas zvakanyudzwa zvakanyanya munzvimbo dzine vanhu vakawanda uye zviri padyo nezvivakwa zvevagari zvekuti zvaisaita kudzivirira kukuvadzwa kwechibvumirano" nekuti ndizvo zvaakaona pa "webhusaiti yeIDF Mutauriri." Anoziva zvakare kuti "mauto eIDF anenge anga ari echokwadi mukutaura kuti Hamas yakashandisa mamosque nedzimwe nzvimbo [s] dzakasimba mukurwa" nekuti ndizvo izvo "nguva" yake yakavakirwa paIDF inoburitsa nhau. (Zvinoita sekutaura kuti kunyangwe vekutanga kuburitswa kwenhau dzeIsrael vachipomera kuputika kwechipiri mushure mekurohwa kwemamosque, gare gare havana kana kumbonetsekana kuita izvi.)
Israel yakaparadza kana kukanganisa dzimba zviuru gumi nezvishanu (15,000 veGazan vakasiiwa vasina pekugara), zvikoro zana nemakumi matanhatu, mafekitori zana nemakumi mashanu nemazana mashanu muzana, uye makumi masere muzana ezvirimwa zvekurima.9 Kana, sekutaura kunoita Cordesman, Israeri yakashandisa hungwaru uye zvombo, saka kuparadza kukuru kunofanira kunge kwakave nemaune.10 Muchokwadi kuparadzwa kwakadaro kwaive kwakakosha uye kwakakosha mukubudirira kweOperation Cast Lead. Chinangwa chekushanda uku, sekureva kwaCordesman, "kudzoreredza kudzivirira kweIsrael, uye kuratidza Hezbollah, Iran, neSyria kuti zvaive nengozi kupikisa Israeri." Asi Israeri haina kukwanisa kudzoreredza kudzora kwayo nekukunda mauto zvishoma nekuti Hamas yaisave simba rehondo. Kuti ataure Cordesman, "Izvo ... hazvisi pachena kuti chero mupikisi weIsrael akanzwa Hamas yakanga yakasimba zvakakwana kuti ive muedzo wakakomba wemauto epasi eIsrael." Saka Israeri yaingokwanisa kudzoreredza kudzivirira kwayo nekuratidza huwandu hwekuparadza chaiko kwayaive yakagadzirira, ichida uye ichikwanisa kuunza. Zvakare, mumashoko aCordesman, Israeri โyaifanira [kuita] kuti vavengi vayo vanzwe kuti โyakanga yava kupenga,โโ uye yakanga yakagadzirira kuparira ruparadziko paโmwero [uyo] usingafungidzirikiโ uye usingateereri โmufungo wenyika.โ Mukurongeka kwese zvinogoneka zvakare kuti Israel yakanangana nedzimba zhinji kwazvo nekuti, sekureva kwemutauriri weIDF Cordesman anotora mashoko asina kutsoropodza, "Hamas irikuteya imba yese yakasiiwa nevagari vayo." Hamas haifaniri here kunyorwa muGuinness Book of World Records ye "dzimba zhinji dzakavharirwa mukupisa kwehondo"? Sezvazvinoitika, mushure mekunge kuurayiwa kwapera IDF pachayo yakabvuma kuti "chiyero chekuparadza" chakanga chisingabvumirwi nemutemo.11
Cordesman anoridzawo rubatsiro rweIsrael panguva yekuponda. Kuti pasave nekusahadzika nezvehuchokwadi hwezvinetswa zveIsrael, anodzokorora kutaura zvinyorwa zveIsrael ne "Israel Ministry of Defense claims" achizvisimbisa. Anosanganisirawo chirevo chisingaverengeki kubva kune mumwe kunze kweGurukota rezvekudzivirirwa, Ehud Barak, "Tinonyatsoziva nezvematambudziko ekubatsira vanhu; tiri kuita uye ticharamba tichiita zvese zvatinogona kuti tipe zvese zvinodiwa muvanhu kuvagari veGaza." Chokwadi chiri pasi pano chairatidzika zvakasiyana, zvisinei. "Masangano eUN uye maNGO anobatsira vanhu vakaramba vachiita mabasa zvisinei nekusachengeteka kwakanyanya," akadaro Hofisi yeUnited Nations yeCoordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
Mukati memavhiki matatu ekurwisana, vashandi vashanu veUNRWA nevatatu vekondirakiti vayo vakaurayiwa vachiri pabasa, uye vamwe vashandi 11 nemakondirakiti mana vakakuvadzwa; Zviitiko zvina zvekupfurwa kwezvikoni zvekubatsira zvakashumwa; zvingangoita 53 zvivakwa zveUnited Nations zvakakuvadzwa. . . . Mune chimwe chezviitiko zvakakomba, zvakaitika mangwanani e15 Ndira, iyo huru UNRWA komboni muGaza City yakarohwa zvakananga kakawanda nemabhomba eIsrael. Somugumisiro, imba yokuchengetera zvinhu yakapiswa ichiparadza mazana ematani ezvokudya nemishonga, mamwe acho akanga akarongerwa kugoverwa zuva iroro. . . . Vanosvika mazana manomwe vePalestine vaipotera muchivako ichi vaifanira kubviswa. Sekureva kwaDirector of Operations weUNRWA, John Ging, mabhomba airova chivakwa anga aine phosphorus chena. Chiitiko ichi chakaitika kunyangwe paine kuvimbiswa kwakajeka kwakapihwa neIDF kuUNRWA kusati kwarwiswa, sekureva kwaisazorohwa chivako.
Zvichitevera kushanya kuchivakwa cheUNRWA, Munyori Mukuru weU.N., VaBan Ki-Moon, vakati, "Ndangoshamiswa ... kurwisa kwakaipisisa uye kusatenderwa zvachose kuUnited Nations."12 Dare rinowanzoita rakangwara reInternational Committee yeRed Cross rakatsiura veruzhinji kuIsrael mushure me "chiitiko chinokatyamadza" apo masoja eIsrael akadzosa boka rekununura reICRC rakatumirwa kubatsira vakakuvara vePalestine, vachivasiya kuti vafe.13 Kunyangwe achipinda mune mamwe generic caveats achibvuma "kunonoka nekukanganisa" kweIsrael, Cordesman haana kukwanisa kuwana nzvimbo pakati pezvake zvisingaverengeki zvekuburitswa kwenhau dzeIsrael kuti atore izvi kana zvimwe zvirevo zvakatsoropodza nemasangano ekuyamura nevakuru veUN. Kunyangwe achitaura sechokwadi kupomedzerwa kwakanyanya kweIsrael yekuti Hamas "yakadzivirira[ed] kubviswa kwekurapa kwePalestine kuenda kuIsrael," haanawo kuwana nzvimbo yekutaura kuti nekuda kwekuvharirwa kweIsrael chete nevarwere makumi matatu nevana vane mvumo yekunorapwa kunze kwenyika. ve34 vakatsvaga mvumo vakakwanisa kuenda muna Ndira 113.14 Cordesman anosimbisa kuti Israel "yakaronga mafambiro" emaamburenzi, asi haatauri kuti "kunyangwe pakarongwa kurongeka masoja anonzi akadzingwa maamburenzi" (B'Tselem).15
Anotaura pasina humbowo uye sezviri pachena achizvitsigira pazvinyorwa zveIsrael izvo Hamas yakaita "kushandisa maamburenzi kuunganidza magandanga," zvisinei nekuti "nharo yekuti maPalestine vakashungurudza maamburenzi yakasimudzwa kakawanda nevakuru veIsrael. . . anenge asina kumbopa humbowo hwekuzvisimbisa" (B'Tselem).16
Munguva yehondo yeRebhanoni ya2006, Israel yakanangana nemaamburenzi emuLebhanoni ane moto wekupotsera, kunyangwe maererano neHuman Rights Watch pakanga pasina "chikonzero chekugumisa kuti Hezbollah yaishandisa maamburenzi kuita zvehondo."17 Cordesman angangodaro akataura kuti kubhomba kweIsrael kwakakuvadza kana kuparadza maamburenzi makumi maviri nemapfumbamwe uye ingangoita hafu yezvivakwa zvehutano zve29 (kusanganisira zvipatara gumi neshanu nemakiriniki makumi mana nematatu), uye kuti vashandi vekurapa gumi nevatanhatu vakaurayiwa uye makumi maviri nevaviri vakakuvara vari pabasa.18 Mushure mekunge kuponda kwapera, Israel yakaramba ichivhara rubatsiro rwevanhu, kusanganisira kutumirwa kwepizi, mazuvano, mabhegi etii, macaroni, mapuzzle evana, mapepa anodiwa kudhinda mabhuku evana vechikoro, uye mabhegi epurasitiki kugovera chikafu.19
Cordesman anoedza kuratidza kuurayiwa kweGaza semakwikwi echokwadi emauto. Anotsanangura zvakadzama zvinokatyamadza zvakasimudzirwa nematafura, magirafu nenhamba (neruremekedzo rwe "IDF Defense Spokesman") dura rakakura remaroketi, dhaka, zvombo zvekudzivirira mhepo uye zvimwe zvombo izvo Hamas inofungidzirwa kuti yakagadzira uye yakapinzwa mukati menzira (kusanganisira "Iran-yakagadzirwa. maroketi" anogona "kurova munzvimbo zhinji dzeSouthern Israel" uye "kurova kiyi zvivakwa"), uye "dandemutande renzvimbo dzakasimba dzakagadzirirwa, pasi pevhu uye pekugara pakavanda, uye nzvimbo dzekuvandira" Hamas inonzi yakavaka. Anoshuma kuti maererano ne "vakuru vakuru veIsrael" Hamas yakanga ine 6,000-10,000 "varwi vepakati." Anotora "hondo yeGaza" nehondo yaJune 1967, hondo yaOctober 1973 uye hondo ye2006. Anotsanangura hurongwa hwehondo hweIsrael hwakaoma uye gadziriro, uye anoti kukunda kweIsrael kwaive nechikamu che "nzvimbo dzayo dzekuvanzika" - sekunge mhedzisiro yaizove yakasiyana dai Israeri isina kubatsirwa kubva kune chinhu chekushamisika.
Zvakangodaro Cordesman anomanikidzwa kubvuma, kana chete nekunangidzira, kuti zvakarwiwa neIsrael yanga isiri hondo. Anoti Hamas yakanga iri "mutambi asina simba asiri wehurumende" nepo Israel yaive nedura guru rezvombo zvechizvino-zvino; kuti mauto emuchadenga eIsrael "akatarisana nekutyisidzirwa kushoma kubva kuHamas's primitive land-based air defense"; kuti "kurwa kwepasi kwakagadziriswa"; kuti mauto eIsrael aidzivirira kubatanidzwa uko "angangozotambura" zvakanyanya kukuvadzwa; kuti "IDF yakashandisa hondo yeusiku nokuda kwemabasa akawanda ekurwisana nokuti Hamas yakanga isina teknolojia kana kudzidzira kurwa usiku." Mukupedzisira tally 1,300-1,400 Palestinians vakaurayiwa, pakati pechikamu chimwe chete nechikamu chimwe chete muzvitatu vana,20 nepo vanhu vese veIsrael vakaurayiwa vakauya kuvarwi ve10 (vana vakaurayiwa nemoto wehushamwari) uye vanhu vatatu. Chiyero chevaPalestine kune veIsrael vakaurayiwa chaive 100: 1. Nhamba idzi dzinopupurira kwete hondo asi kupondwa kwevanhu vakawanda.
Cordesman anoti Israeri yakaratidza "yaigona kurwisa nhandare yemhepo zvinobudirira munzvimbo dzakazara vanhu mumaguta" uye "inogona kurwa hondo yakawedzera kurwisa mutambi asiri wenyika." Asi mushandirapamwe wayo wemhepo wanga usiri "kurwa" sekuti kupfura hove mudhiramu kuri kurwa. Sokunge kuunza fananidzo iyi, anodzokorora mumwe mukuru mukuru wemauto emuchadenga weIsrael, "IAF yakafambisa zviuru zvitatu zvakabudirira munzvimbo diki diki mukati memavhiki matatu ekurwa pasina tsaona imwe kana kurasikirwa." Uyewo haina "kurwa" hondo yenyika kana rumwe rutivi rwakanga rusina pfuti uye rwakabatanidzwa chete kana rwaisakwanisa kurwisa. Cordesman anoti kunze kwekurova pasina chikonzero "zvimwe" zvinangwa zveveruzhinji "kusanganisira zvakakosha zvinangwa zveUnited Nations sechikoro cheUNRWA pakafa vanhu makumi mana nevaviri vekuPalestine" - izvi zvinongedzo zvechiuto zvinopa mitsara miviri mushumo wake wemapeji makumi mapfumbamwe nemaviri - "Hapana. ufakazi hwokuti kubatwa zvisina kufanira kupi nokupi kwemimwe ganhuriro nhete yakaisirwa [ne] mitemo yehondo kwakaitika, kunze kwemhaka shoma shoma,โ uye kuti โchiitiko chinokosha bedzi chakanga chava kubuda chakanga chiri kushandiswa zvisina kufanira kwehoko 3,000 dzephosphorus munzvimbo dzakavakwa. muBeit Lahiya." Tichisiya padivi kuti Israel inonzi yakashandisa phosphorus chena mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzakavakwa dzeGaza Strip, uye tichisiya padivi zvekuti inonzi yakashandisawo mabhomba munzvimbo dzakavakwa, Cordesman akazvinetesa achiverenga zvinyorwa zveIsrael zvekuti akapotsa mishumo inovimbika yekodzero dzevanhu. masangano nevatapi venhau kuti, kunze kwekutyorwa kukuru kwemitemo yehondo yatodudzwa, masoja eIsrael aive "akananga kupfuti nemaune kune vanhuwo zvavo vaisabatanidzwa mukurwisana uye vasina kuisa hupenyu hwemasoja mungozi munzira ipi neipi. . . . Mune zvimwe zvezviitiko, vakapfura kunyange zvazvo vanhuwo zvavo vakanga vachivheyesa machira machena,โ uye masoja eIsrael aishandisa vanhu vokuPalestine senhoo dzevanhu. (BโTselem; Los Angeles Times).21
Paakadzoka kubva kuGaza mushure mekuurayiwa kwevanhu, Mutungamiriri Mukuru weUnited Nations for Humanitarian Affairs akati, "Kuparadza kwandakaona kwaiparadza-zvose mumunhu uye zvinhu."22 Asi maererano naCordesman, dambudziko rakanga risiri iro zvakaitwa neIsrael muGaza asi kuti haina kutonga nemazvo "hondo yemafungiro": "haina kuita zvishoma kutsanangura matanho airi kutora kuderedza kuurayiwa kwevanhu uye kukanganisa kwechibvumirano pasi rose. "; iyo "zvechokwadi yaigona - uye yaifanira - yakaita zvakatonyanya kuratidza mwero wayo wekuzvidzora kwemauto uye kuita kuti ivimbike." Muchokwadi, Israeri yakatanga gadziriro yayo yehasbara (propaganda) mwedzi mitanhatu kuurayiwa kwevanhu kusati kwaitika uye dare repakati muHofisi yeMutungamiriri weHurumende, National Information Directorate, yakapihwa basa rekubatanidza hasbara yeIsrael.23 Kana iyo yakanyatsorongeka p.r. blitz pakupedzisira haina kugutsikana, dambudziko ringave risiri rekuti nyika yese yakafungira zvakaitika kana kuti Israeri yakatadza kuburitsa zvakaringana basa rayo rekubatsira vanhu asi kuti huwandu hwekupondwa kwacho hwaityisa zvekuti hapana huwandu hweparaganda hwaigona kuvanza, kunyanya mushure kupondwa kwacho kwakapera uye vatori venhau vekune dzimwe nyika vakanga vasingacharambidzwi nezvikonzero zvenhema. Maiwe, "kuongorora" uku kwakashata, kusatomboverenga "Cordesman akabatana pamwechete mushure mejunket yake haafanire kunyengedza chero munhu, kunyangwe mukururamisira kumusasa muteveri Cordesman zvinofanirwa kutaurwa kuti akaedza nepaaigona napo kuti afadze uye American Jewish Committee yakawana mari yayo pachena. kukosha kubva kwaari.
Notes:
1 Anthony H. Cordesman, "The 'Gaza War': A Strategic Analysis" (Washington, DC: 2 February 2009).
2 Uzi Benziman, "Kusvikira Zvaonekwa Zvimwe," nyika (18 June 2006). B. Michael, "Yevarevi venhema nevavhimi," Yediot Ahronot (3 Gunyana 2005); B. Michael, "Rega Kunyepa!," Yediot Ahronot (5 Gunyana 2008).
4 Amira Hass, "MuRockets 'Red Glare," nyika (15 Ndira 2009).
10 Cordesman anoshuma kuti zvichibva pane zvakaitika kuUS "5-10% yezvombo zvine hunyanzvi zvinogona kurova chinangwa chisiri icho munzvimbo yedhorobha."
17 Human Rights Watch, Nei Vakafa, p. 160.
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