Kana iwe wakaita sevanhu vazhinji vakashungurudzika vandinoziva, tarisiro yehushe hwehupfumi hweUS kugumburwa, kugumburwa, uye pamwe nekupunzika kunogamuchirwa zvechokwadi.

Saka fara, zvinoita sekunge mwaka wekuuya wasvika. Aimbova gavhuna weFederal Reserve Paul Volcker akanyevera pakutanga kwegore rino nezve '75% mukana wematambudziko emari anorova US mumakore mashanu anotevera, kana ikasachinja mitemo yayo.'

Sezvakataurwa naVolcker kuFinancial Times mwedzi wapfuura, 'Ini ndinofunga dambudziko parizvino nderekuti hapana pfungwa yedambudziko. Zvechokwadi, iwe unogona kutaura pamusoro pekushomeka kwebhajeti muAmerica kana iwe uchifunga kuti idambudziko - uye ndinofunga kuti idambudziko guru - asi hapana pfungwa yedambudziko, saka hapana anoda kuteerera.'

Izvozvo zvinogona kunge zvakangochinja. Mutsivi waVolcker, Alan Greenspan, akatyisidzira misika yezvemari kuti atore zvishoma svondo rapfuura nekubvuma, 'Zvinoita sekunyengetedza kuti, nehukuru hwekushomeka kweakaundi yeUS ikozvino, kuderera kwekuda kwekuwedzera kumadhora kunofanirwa kuitika pane imwe nguva. '

Aimbove munyori wevashandi veUS, Robert Reich akafanotaura munaGunyana kuti: "Maonero makuru ndeekuti kushomeka kwebhajeti kuchawedzera. Panguva imwe chete, maonero makuru ndeokuti hapana chikonzero chekutenda kuti kushomeka kwekutengeserana kuchaderera chero nguva munguva pfupi. Kutaura zvazviri, ndinoona dhora richiramba richidzikira uye ndinoona pane imwe nguva pari nani'¦ nokuti pane imwe nguva rinova mari isina maturo.'

Vhiki mushure mesarudzo, aimbova munyori weTreasury Robert Rubin akapomera Bush kuti 'aitamba nemoto' nekubvumira dhora kuti rive risina simba pamwe chete nekuenderera mberi kwe federal deficit spending, kusanganiswa kwaizounza 'kukanganisa kwakanyanya mumisika yedu yemari.'

Akawedzera C. Fred Bergsten, mutungamiriri weInstitute for International Economics muWashington (izwi redzidziso chaiyo), 'Munhu wose ari pamusika anoziva kuti dhora rinofanira kuburuka zvakanyanya. Vanhu vava kutanga kumhanya vachitsvaga pekubuda napo.'

Iko kumhanya kwekubuda kunogona kudhura zvakanyanya kuChina, semuenzaniso, neaimbove mukuru weTreasury Nouriel Roubini achiudza Reuters kuti inosvika 8% yeGDP yayo - kana hafu yetrillion $ US - icharasika kana mari yekuChina ikabvumidzwa. tsvaga kukosha kwayo chaiko, uye dhora rakadonha imwe 20%.

Ehe, izvi hazvisi zvekungoteedzera kushanduka kwemutengo wedhora kune dzimwe nyika, iyo inonyura nekunyura nekusimbisa nekuda kwezvikonzero zvenguva pfupi. Zvakadzama, kuongororwa kwemaitiro kunodiwa.

Yale-based anarchist David Graeber hafu-anoseka anokurudzira 'kupatsanurwa kwakarongeka kwevashandi umo maMarxists anotsoropodza hupfumi hwezvematongerwo enyika, asi gara kunze kwekuronga, uye vanarchist vanobata kurongeka kwezuva nezuva, asi vanomira kune Marxists pamibvunzo yeabstract theory. ; kureva, umo maMarxists anotsanangura kuti sei kuparara kwehupfumi muArgentina kwakaitika uye vanarchists vanobata nezvekuita nezvazvo.'

Zvakanaka, saka, chii chinonzi Marxists nevamwe vanopokana vezvehupfumi vanoti, ko nematambudziko makuru emari emuArgentina ari kuuya?

Kutanga nekuongororwa kwemamiriro ezvinhu, zvikoro zvina zvakakosha zvekufunga zvakafanirwa kutaurwa nekuti zvine zvakati siyanei - uye kazhinji zvinokwikwidza - mazano pamusoro pezvinonetsa US uye global capitalism:

1) Makambani anokwikwidza zvakanyanya, ayo anodzikira pasi mwero wepurofiti; 2) Kunyanya kuzvivimba mukati memisika yemari, iyo nhasi inoita senge kasino pane kuchengetedza / kuita mari; 3) Kuwedzeredza kwezvigadzirwa, sechiratidzo chinoramba chiripo chekusakwana kwesimba rekutenga mutengi; uye 4) Kuwanda kwemari yakawanda kazhinji, dambudziko risingagoni kubviswa zvachose, asi iro rimwe zuva rinofanira kutarisana nekuderera kwakanyanya.

Muchiitiko chekutanga, muenzaniso wakanaka ndewe UCLA munyori wenhoroondo Robert Brenner's 2003 bhuku *The Boom and the Bubble* uye ongororo yakazotevera muNew Left Ongororo, London Ongororo yeMabhuku, Against the Current, nemamwe majenari.

Muchikamu chechipiri, vateveri vemushakabvu wezvehupfumi weAmerica Hyman Minsky - saDavid Felix weWashington University uye Steve Keen weYunivhesiti yeWestern Sydney - vanopokana kuti misika yezvemari inosimuka kubva mukugarisa capitalism, kuenda kunotora mari yekufungidzira, kusvika pakuva kubheja kwakachena, mumweya wekare 'Ponzi'-style inverted piramidi zvirongwa.

Chikamu chechitatu chinokwevera panhaka yaJohn Maynard Keynes, ane mhinduro dze'kusashandisa zvishoma' dzinowanzobatanidza kiredhiti yakasununguka uye rupo rwerubatsiro rwehurumende, kuitira kuwedzera simba rekutenga kwevatengi. Nyanzvi zhinji dzezvehupfumi dzakasimba muUS dzakavandudza iyi mutsara wekupokana, pamwe nekuti yakachengeteka mune zvematongerwo enyika pane kudaidzira shanduko yeanti-capitalist. (Reagan, Bush Sr naBush Jr vanogona kutsanangurwa se 'mauto maKenesia' nekuda kwekushomeka kwavo kwebhajeti uye Pentagon-hedonism.)

Tichikakavadzana nyaya yechina, nyanzvi dzekare dzeMarxists saEllen Meikskins Wood mubhuku rake * Empire of Capital * (2003) naDavid Harvey mu * The New Imperialism * (2004) vakagadziridza zvakakosha kare nhoroondo dzekuwandisa kwaSimon Clarke (* Keynesianism, Monetarism. uye Dambudziko reHurumende *, 1988), Harvey mu * The Condition of Postmodernity * (1989), Harry Shutt (* Dambudziko neCapitalism *, 1999) naRobert Biel (* The New Imperialism *, 2000).

Inopikiswa neizvi inzvimbo yeMarxist inoremekedza simba, hungwaru uye kugona kuzvirapa mukati mecapitalism - uye kunyanya inoratidza kusasimba kwemuvengi mukuru wehurongwa: boka revashandi. Vaya vari kupokana kuti iyo system haisi * yakatarisana nehurongwa hwekuwedzeredza dambudziko vanosanganisira Leo Panitch, Sam Gindin naChris Rude mune itsva * Socialist Register 2005: The Empire Reloaded *, Doug Henwood mu * Mushure meNew Economy * (2003) uye Giovanni. Arrighi (anotsoropodza Brenner) mu *New Left Ongororo * gore rapfuura.

Dzimwe dzeidzi nhoroondo dzekupedzisira dzinosimbisa chikoro chechishanu chedzidziso yeMarxist: kurwa kwekirasi sechinhu chinotemesa. Uye ichokwadi, vashandi vepasirese uye dzinenge kurwisa kwese kurwiswa kwenyika kwakatambura kukundwa kunoramba kuripo mukati memakumi matatu emakore apfuura, izvo zvinobatsira chaizvo kutsanangura kudzoreredza kweguta kubva kunhamo dze1970s.

Asi kupesana kwemukati kunoramba kuchikwira. Kudyidzana kwenyika dzepasi pose kwakonzera kuderera kweupfumi, kwete kusimba. Maererano neWorld Bank, kuwedzera kweGDP yegore negore pamunhu kwakaderera kubva pa3.6% muma1960, kusvika pa2.1% muma1970s, kusvika 1.3% muma1980 kusvika 1.1% muma1990 uye 1% mukutanga kwema2000. .

Zvakare, matanho eGDP ane mukurumbira wakashata wehutano hwemagariro, kunyanya sezvo kushatiswa kwezvakatipoteredza kwakawedzera zvakanyanya kubva kuma1970. Isu tinofanirwawo kufunga nezvekusaenzana kwakanyanya kwekuunganidza pasirese, nedzimwe nzvimbo - seEastern Europe neAfrica - dziri kutambudzika nekukurumidza kuderera paGDP yega yega kwenguva yakawanda yekudyidzana kwepasi rose.

Kana kuti funga chiratidzo chekare chedambudziko recapitalist: mwero wekambani wepurofiti. Pakutanga, mutero wemutero wekambani weUS - wakadonha zvakanyanya kubva pakati pemakore ekuma1960s - wakaratidzika kupora kutanga muna 1984, uchisvika pakukwira kwekutanga kwehondo (kunyangwe zvichifanira kutaurwa kuti mutero wakaderera zvakanyanya nguva yazvino).

Nekune rimwe divi, mari dzemubereko dzemakambani dzakaramba dziri pamazinga akakwirira muma1980-90s. Kubvisa mari yemubereko, tinowana pfungwa iri nani yemari inowanikwa kune femu yekudyara mune ramangwana uye kuunganidza, iyo yakaramba yakadzikira kubva kutanga kwema1980- anhasi, kupfuura panguva dzakapfuura, sekureva kweFrench Marxists Gérard Duménil naDominique Lévy (http https://www.cepremap.ens.fr).

Duménil naLévy zvakare vanogadzira nzira idzo makambani eUS akapindura nekudzikira kwekuunganidzwa kwechikamu chekugadzira. Mari yekugadzira yaikonzeresa ingangoita hafu yehuwandu (mutero usati wabhadhara) purofiti yemakambani mukati mekota yezana remakore mushure mehondo 'Golden Age', asi yakaderera kusvika pasi pe20% kutanga kwema2000s.

Kusiyana neizvi, purofiti muchikamu chezvemari yakasimuka kubva pa10-20% pakati pemakore ekuma 1950-60s, kusvika pamusoro pe30% ne2000. Vemari vakapeta kaviri nheyo yavo yeasset maererano nevezera ravo vasiri vezvemari munguva ye1980-90s.

Zvinorevei izvi?

Sekureva kwaHarvey, kupokana kwecapitalism "kwakatamiswa" pachinzvimbo chekugadziriswa: kwakafambiswa nguva nenzvimbo, kunyanya kuburikidza nemisika yemari yemari. Nguva inoverengerwa mune yakakura kiredhiti bubble, iyo inokutendera iwe kubhadhara ikozvino, pahwaro hwechikwereti, uye tariro yekuwana mari yeramangwana yekuvhara mari yako yechikwereti.

Uye kushandiswa kwe capitalism ye 'nzvimbo' - geographic dambudziko displacement - ndizvo chaizvo zvave kuita kudyidzana kwepasi rose: kubvumira makambani akatarisana nepurofiti kuti atsvage zororo munzvimbo dzine zvigadzirwa nevashandi zvakachipa, uko mitemo ishoma, uye uko misika mitsva yezvigadzirwa inogona. kubuda. Saka purofiti yemakambani inotorwa kubva mukushanda kwepasi rose yakakwira kubva pa4 kusvika pa8% panguva ye1950s-60s kusvika pamusoro pe20% ne2000.

Kutaura chokwadi, mamwe ematambudziko akatarisana necapitalism haana kungomiswa uye kuchinjika. Kumwe kurova kwakashata - devaluation yeasset - yakaitika munzvimbo dzakasiyana mumakore makumi matatu apfuura.

Izvi zvaisanganisira dambudziko rechikwereti cheNyika Yetatu (kutanga kwema1980 kune vanokweretesa vekutengesa, asi zvichiri kuitika kune dzakawanda dzepasirese uye nzanga); simba rezvemari rinovhundutsa (pakati pema1980); kuputsika kwezvitoro zvemarudzi akawanda (1987) uye zvinhu (1991-93) misika; matambudziko munenge munyika dzese dziri kusimukira dzemisika (1995-2002); uye kunyange kubhuroka kukuru kwemunhu uko kwaive nenyonganyonga dzepasi rose.

Mienzaniso yekupera kwema1990 yekubhejera kwemari-yekufungidzira yakanyangara mune zvakabva, zvinzvimbo zvemusika wemasheya, kutengeserana kwemari, uye kubheja kwakashata pane remangwana rezvigadzirwa uye remangwana remari yemubereko rinosanganisira Long-Term Capital Management ($3.5 bhiriyoni) (1998), Sumitomo/London. Metal Exchange (, 1.6 bhiriyoni)(1996), IGMetallgessellschaft ($2.2 bhiriyoni)(1994), Kashima Oil ($1.57 bhiriyoni)(1994), Orange County, California ($1.5 bhiriyoni)(1994), Barings Bank (,900 miriyoni)( 1995), hurumende yeBelgian ($ 1 bhiriyoni) (1997), uye Union Bank yeSwitzerland ($690 miriyoni) (1998).

Kubva muna 2000, kubhuroka kwekambani yeUS pazvikero zvakatokura - semuenzaniso, Enron, Anderson Accounting, World Com, Tyco - zvaive nechokuita nehuwori, asi zvaive zvakare zviratidzo zvekubhejera kwemari mumisika isina kukura.

Chakanyanya kukosha, musika wemasheya wekuUS yaive saiti ye 'New Economy' bubble kusvika 2000, pamwe zvichizoguma nekuparara kweDot Com uko kwakatsvaira $8.5 trillion yehupfumi hwemapepa kubva panhongonya kuenda kune imwe (muUS chete) - asi. nerumwe rutivi, ichiita seichawedzera muna 2003-04 nekuda kwekudzoka kwevarimisi vemba uye mutual fund inoyerera, uye pamwe ichikwira mberi mumakore anotevera kana Bush akatanga kuchengetedzwa kwevanhu.

Pakanga paine tsaona kwete muNew York chete, asiwo 1/3 yadzikira muna 2002 muFinland, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Netherlands, neSweden, uye kumwe kudonha kwakanyanya mumamwe misika yemasheya.

David Harvey anopa imwe pfungwa yekududzira kuti sisitimu inopindura sei kune kuwandisa uye kuwandisa kwemari. Achifemerwa nerunyerekupe rwaRosa Luxemburg zana ramakore rapfuura pamusoro pehukama pakati pecapitalism neasiri capitalist nzvimbo dzehupenyu, anotsanangura masisitimu matsva e'kuunganidza nekubvisa', izvo zvinoreva, zvakanyanya, kupambwa kwezvakajairwa uye kushandiswa kwesimba rekuwedzera hupfumi. kuwana purofiti.

Masisitimu ekutorera vanhu nhasi anorwisa zvakare zviripachena nzvimbo ye'kubereka', apo kubiridzira kunoitika kunyanya kuburikidza nekusaenzana kwesimba rehukama. Izvi zvinoratidza 'kudzoreredzwa' kwehupenyu, sekukakavara kwenyanzvi dzezvematongerwo enyika kuYunivhesiti yeYork, Isabella Bakker naStephen Gill mubhuku ravo ra2003 rinonzi *Power, Production and Social Reproduction*.

Pamwe chete, pfungwa idzi dzinobvumira maMarxists kuti vatsanangure kuti sei 'capitalist dambudziko' risingagadzirise marudzi ekubhadhara-kuparara kwehurongwa uye matambudziko makuru-capitalist ekushayikwa kwemabasa akaonekwa panguva yekubatana kukuru kwekuwandisa, Kuderera Kukuru.

Maererano nekunyatsoongorora kwakaitwa naGreg Albo weYunivhesiti yeYork mugore rapfuura *Socialist Register 2004: The New Imperial Challenge*, 'Kuderera kwehupfumi uye neoliberalism kwakatungamirira kumari yakakosha yehupfumi kubva kuma1970 zvichienda mberi.' Nhasi, 'Kuderedzwa kwebhavhu reasset kunowedzera imwe makakatanwa pakati peUS nedzimwe nzvimbo dzinokanganisa chero nzira yekugadzirisa mumusika wepasi rose.'

Ndizvo chete zvandinoita sendiine nzvimbo muchikamu chino: mamwe makotesheni evanyori, mutsetse wedzidziso yeMarxist, uye humbowo hwekutanga. Muchikamu chinotevera, ndichaburitsa zviverengero zvinoratidza kutenderera kutsva kwekusagadzikana kwehupfumi, tisingataure zvakanyanya 'kunetsana pakati peUS nedzimwe nzvimbo'. Uye kune, zvakare, zvimwe zvakadzama zvidzidzo zvezvematongerwo enyika zvekudzidza, kana isu tisingazotorwa kuti tikwirwe pa roller-coaster panguva ino, sezvataive mukupera kwema1990.

(Patrick - pbond@sn.apc.org - anodzidzisa hupfumi hwezvematongerwo enyika paYunivhesiti yeKwaZulu-Natal uye anotungamira Center for Civil Society - http://www.ukzn.ac.za/ccs)