Will the US Federal Reserve’s announcement of a substantial cut in interest rates avert a recession in the Amerika Tele and banish the spectre of a worldwide crash? Many experts think it will. At worst, they think the growth rate may slow down. Other observers in the capitalist camp are very worried. In France, Jacques Attali foresees a crash on Wall Street, home of the New York stock exchange and ultimate guarantor of the loan pyramid (1), and Michel Rocard is convinced that a world crisis is imminent and that the system is about to explode (2).
E tele faʻailoga o le faʻalavelave. O loʻo i ai le faʻafouina o le fiafia i auro faʻaagaga ma le faanatinati e faʻatau - o le tau o le auro na siitia i le 32% i le 2007. O faʻalapotopotoga tetele uma o le tamaoaiga, e aofia ai le International Monetary Fund ma le Faalapotopotoga mo le Galulue Faʻatasi ma le Atinaʻeina o Tamaoaiga, o loʻo valoia le faʻaititia o le tuputupu aʻe i le lalolagi atoa.
O nei mea uma na amata ina ua pa le initaneti i le 2001. Ina ia laveai tagata teu tupe, na filifili le taitaifono a le US Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan e faʻalauiloa le maketi o meatotino e ala i le faʻalauiloaina o se faiga faʻavae e matua maualalo le tului, ma faʻaititia le tau tupe. O lenei mea na maua ai e le au faufautua tau tupe ma le au faʻatau fanua se faʻamalosiaga e faʻamalosia le tele o tagata e teu faʻafaigaluega i piliki ma sima. O le ala lea o le faiga o subprimes, maualuga-tulaga lamatia mokesi fua faatatau mokesi mo aiga maualalo tupe maua po o i latou e matitiva aitalafu. Ae i le 2005 na siitia ai e le Federal Reserve ia fua faatatau faavae - ia na faatoa faaitiitia. O lenei mea na lafoaʻi ai le faiga atoa o mea faigaluega ma o aʻafiaga na aʻafia ai le faiga o teugatupe faava o malo ia Aokuso 2007.
With three million US families facing insolvency and debts totalling $200bn, some major credit institutions ran out of funds. To cover themselves against this contingency, they had sold some questionable debts on to other banks. The banks put the debts into speculative investment funds, and the funds passed them on to banks all over the world. So the crisis spread and rapidly engulfed the entire banking system.
Major financial institutions, including Citigroup and Merrill Lynch in the US, Northern Rock in Peretania, Swiss Re and UBS in Sueteselani and Société Générale in Falani, incurred huge losses and suspect there are more to come. To limit the damage, many had to accept funds from sovereign sources controlled by southern powers or oil-rich regimes.
The real extent of the damage is not yet clear. The central banks in the US, Europe, the UK, Sueteselani ma Iapani have poured hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy since August 2007, but confidence was not restored. The crisis spread from the financial sector to the rest of the economy. Several factors — a rapid drop in house prices in the US, o le UK, Aialani ma Spain, the fall in the dollar, the credit squeeze — point to a decline in growth. Add to this the increase in the price of oil, raw materials and food products. All the ingredients for a crisis that will last for some time, the greatest crisis since the structure of the world economy has been based on globalisation.
The outcome depends on whether the Asian economies can take over from the US as the driving force. Another sign, perhaps, that the West is in decline and that the centre of the world economy is about to shift from the US i ōmea. The crisis may mark the end of an era.
Faaliliu e Barbara Wilson
(1) L’Express, Paris, 13 Tesema 2007.
(2) Le Nouvel Observateur, Paris, 13 Tesema 2007.
O le ZNetwork o loʻo faʻatupeina naʻo le agalelei o ana tagata faitau.
lafo