A desire for change isn’t a sentiment unique to voters in the گڏيل رياستون, and it’s not something that our country should fear when embraced by our Southern neighbors. ايل سلواڊور, a country that will hold presidential elections on March 15, is a case in point. It’s a place where a single party has been in power for two decades. It has long been mired in poverty, crime, and corruption. And its own Cheneys and Rumsfelds remain in power. A victory by the progressive frontrunner in the electoral contest — the first Latin American presidential elections since President Barack Obama’s inauguration — would give the new White House an opportunity to reject fear-mongering about the rise of left-leaning governments in Latin America and instead praise the regional wave of democratic transformation.
In recent months, Mauricio Funes of the progressive FMLN party (the Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional) has consistently led in the polls. A February 20 poll reported Funes with an 11% edge over Rodrigo Ávila, a private security mogul, former director of the National Civil Police, and nominee of the right-wing ARENA party (the Alianza Republicana Nacionalista). Funes is well known in ايل سلواڊور as a television journalist who hosted one of the few programs openly critical of the government. He has capitalized on public support for new approaches to a crime epidemic and an economy that has provided too few alternatives to destitution or migration to the North. ARENA has held the presidency in ايل سلواڊور for the last 20 years, including the 17 years since the signing of the 1992 Peace Accords that ended the country’s civil war.
A key tactic of the Salvadoran right has been to paint Funes and his party as tools of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. Many آمريڪا commentators have mirrored this position by caricaturing the Latin American left as naively obedient to Chávez and encouraging Obama to craft a tougher response. Within the context of ايل سلواڊور, the accusation against Funes is baseless; in the گڏيل رياستون, this simplistic reading of Latin American politics invites a wholly counterproductive approach to the region.
The Obama administration’s policy toward Latin America should be based in a more sophisticated understanding of regional politics, respect for democratic processes, and acknowledgement of the profound failure of past آمريڪا مداخلتون. ايل سلواڊور provides a clear example of a country in which both military and economic policies promoted by واشنگٽن under previous administrations have had disastrous results — and it now offers an opportunity for the گڏيل رياستون to express a new understanding of its national interest.
جنگ جو پاڇو
ايل سلواڊور‘s civil war still looms large both in the country’s domestic politics and in its relations with the گڏيل رياستون. Unfortunately, the record of آمريڪا involvement was systematically distorted by the Bush administration, creating a continued need for Americans to face a difficult history.
1980s ۾، ايل سلواڊور was the site of one of the گڏيل رياستون‘ largest Cold War interventions. Tragically, واشنگٽن sent $6 billion in aid to a Salvadoran government whose army and paramilitary death squads were responsible for heinous crimes. Some 75,000 people were killed in the country’s civil war during that decade. In 1993, a United Nations-backed Truth Commission determined that the government was responsible for 85% of human rights abuses and that the rebel forces were responsible 5%, with the remaining 10% undetermined. Among the most notorious acts of the right-wing counter-insurgency included the massacre of at least 1,000 people in the village of El Mozote in 1981 — an atrocity the Reagan administration tried hard to obscure and deny — and the assassination of Archbishop Oscar Romero in 1980.
قدامت پسند آرينا پارٽي 1980 جي ڏهاڪي ۾ هڪ بدنام موت جي اسڪواڊ ڪمانڊر ميجر رابرٽو ڊي اوبيسن طرفان ٺاهي وئي، جيڪو روميرو جي قتل جو ذميوار شخص هو. ان جي باوجود، هڪ قدامت پسند پرو-ڪاروبار پارٽي جي حيثيت سان، ARENA 1989 کان انتظامي طاقت رکي ٿي، ۽ هن جنگ کان پوءِ واري دور ۾ مسلسل ٽي صدارتي چونڊون کٽيون آهن.
If eight years of Bush administration rule was enough for voters in the گڏيل رياستون, it’s easy to see why Salvadorans, too, would be ready for change. ARENA was eager to join Bush’s "coalition of the willing," making El سلواڊور the only country in Latin America with troops in عراق. The move won the country strong praise from واشنگٽن‘s neoconservatives. In 2004 Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld lauded ايل سلواڊور‘s "human struggle for liberty and democracy" and Vice President Dick Cheney held up ايل سلواڊور‘s 1980s counter-insurgency as a model for the "War on Terror." Each ignored the damning Truth Commission report naming U.S.-backed forces as the central actors responsible for terrorizing the country’s population. Similarly warping history, ARENA’s current presidential candidate, Ávila, expressed his admiration for D’Aubuisson’s "defense of liberty" in accepting his party’s nomination.
روايت سان ٽوڙڻ
The FMLN also comes out of the civil war, formed by former guerilla forces that fought to wrest control from the country’s traditional oligarchy. The FMLN became a left political party after the Peace Accords. Since then, it has served as the main opposition party in ايل سلواڊور, with members ranging from more traditional socialists (represented by vice presidential candidate Salvador Sánchez Cerén) to moderate social democrats (represented by Funes). Over the years, it has made steady gains at the mayoral level and in the National Assembly. In the municipal and legislative elections that took place in January, the FMLN became the predominant party in the Assembly. Its deputies now outnumber ARENA’s 35 to 32. The FMLN also increased the number of towns and cities it will govern by more than 50%, to a total of 90 municipalities.
The party sees these results as encouraging signs. However, it has similarly entered past presidential contests with high hopes and electoral momentum, only to see its candidates fall short. Demonstrating that a lead in the polls doesn’t always translate into an election-day victory, the FMLN’s incumbent mayor of سئن سلواڊور, Violeta Menjívar, lost in January despite being favored to hold the post.
انهي چيو ته، اهڙا ڪيترائي سبب آهن ڇو ته نتيجا هن صدارتي چونڊ ماضي جي ڀيٽ ۾ مختلف ٿي سگهن ٿيون. انهن ۾ شامل آهن Funes جون پنهنجون صلاحيتون، ARENA جي ”قانون ۽ حڪم“ پاليسين جي گهٽتائي واري اپيل، نئين معاشي نظرئي لاءِ علائقي جي وسيع مطالبي، ۽ اميد آهي ته اوباما وائيٽ هائوس سلواڊور جي چونڊ عمل ۾ بش انتظاميه جي مداخلت کي نه ورجائيندو.
Funes, now 49, was one of many citizens who experienced personal loss during the civil war. His older brother, a student leader, was kidnapped and killed by police forces in 1980. Funes also studied at the Jesuit Universidad Centroamericana José Simeón Cañas (UCA) in سئن سلواڊور, where six priests, some of them his mentors, were murdered in 1989. However, representing a break with party tradition, Funes is the first FMLN presidential candidate who didn’t fight in the conflict. This and his popularity as a well-known broadcaster have made right-wing charges that an FMLN victory would "place our nation in hands stained with blood" sound hollow.
ARENA پڻ پنهنجي ڏوهن جي مخالف پاليسين جي مثبت عوامي تاثر جو فائدو وڃائي ڇڏيو آهي. قتل ۽ ڦرلٽ جي مسلسل خوفناڪ شرحن کي منهن ڏيڻ، ٻنهي صدارتي اميدوارن واعدو ڪيو آهي ته ڏوهن کي منهن ڏيڻ انهن جي انتظاميه جي ترجيح آهي. بهرحال، صرف فنز پوليس فورس کي منظم ڏوهن سان جڙيل بدعنوان عناصر کان پاڪ ڪرڻ جو واعدو ڪيو آهي. 20 فيبروري تي جاري ڪيل پولز ۾، سلواڊور جي 43.9 سيڪڙو جوابدارن جو خيال هو ته فينس بهتر طور تي عدم تحفظ جي مسئلي کي حل ڪري سگهي ٿو، ان جي مقابلي ۾ 26.3 سيڪڙو جيڪي Avila تي ڀروسو ڪندا هئا. ساڳين انگن جو خيال آهي ته FMLN ڪرپشن کي منهن ڏيڻ ۾ وڌيڪ اثرائتو ثابت ٿيندو.
CAFTA جو رڪارڊ
That leaves the economy. For the first time in recent election cycles, the economy replaced crime as the issue identified by the most Salvadorans as their greatest concern going into the elections. Few in the country seem satisfied with business as usual. ARENA’s economic management has largely failed to address entrenched poverty and has maintained dramatic levels of inequality in the country. Since the war, the party has pursued an aggressive program of Washington Consensus economic policies, working to privatize social services and public utilities like electricity and water. The outgoing government of Antonio Saca led ايل سلواڊور into the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), promising jobs, investment, and cheap imports.
نتيجا غير متاثر ڪندڙ رهيا آهن، خاص طور تي سلواڊور جي 37 سيڪڙو ماڻهن لاءِ جيڪي اڃا تائين غربت ۾ رهن ٿا، ورلڊ بئنڪ جي انگن اکرن موجب سيپٽمبر 2008 ۾ رپورٽ ڪئي وئي آهي. حقيقي جي ڊي پي جي ترقي گذريل ڏهاڪي جي اڪثر عرصي ۾ 3 سيڪڙو کان به گهٽ رهي. گذريل ٻن سالن ۾، معيشت مجموعي طور تي اعلي شين جي قيمتن مان فائدو ورتو آهي، ۽ ترقي جي شرح غير معمولي طور تي صحتمند ٿي چڪي آهي. پر اعليٰ قيمتون غريبن لاءِ ٻه دھاري تلوار ثابت ٿيون آهن، جن کي خوراڪ جي بحران جي اونداهي حقيقت کي منهن ڏيڻ تي مجبور ڪيو ويو آهي. ورلڊ فوڊ پروگرام فيبروري 2008 ۾ ٻڌايو ته "ابتدائي تخمينو اهو آهي ته تازو آسماني مارڪيٽ جي قيمتن جي نتيجي ۾، ڳوٺاڻن ايل سلواڊور ۾ هڪ سراسري کاڌي جي حقيقي ڪيلوري جي مقدار اڄ تقريبا 60 سيڪڙو آهي جيڪا مئي 2006 ۾ هئي. "
In the realm of trade, CAFTA hasn’t delivered on its promoters’ promises. Since the deal was implemented, ايل سلواڊور‘s trade deficit with the گڏيل رياستون has soared, as have rates of rural unemployment. This has fueled problems with crime, and it has left migration to the North as the only viable economic option for many Salvadorans. As a result, the country grows ever more dependent on money sent back from immigrants in the گڏيل رياستون. Such remittances accounted for 18% of ايل سلواڊور‘s GDP in 2007.
This dependency, in addition to El Salvador’s reliance on the United States to consume over half of its exports and the government’s decision in 2001 to adopt the U.S. dollar as the national currency, have left the country nakedly exposed to the international financial crisis. More than for almost any other country, the downturn in the world’s economic superpower will have dire consequences for ايل سلواڊور. The looming crisis could prove crucial in the elections, as elsewhere in the hemisphere economic woes have propelled progressive governments into power.
هڪ نئون آمريڪا ڪردار
Hope that the Obama White House will diverge from past administrations’ interventions on behalf of ARENA is a final key reason for expecting change. The right in ايل سلواڊور has consistently charged that an FMLN victory would mean retaliation from واشنگٽن. اڳ ۾ ، آمريڪا officials have collaborated in affirming this impression, spreading fear among Salvadoran voters.
In advance of 2004 elections, several Republican members of Congress issued threats that the vital flow of funds sent by Salvadoran immigrants back to their home country would be disrupted if the election results did not please واشنگٽن. Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) bluntly stated: "If the FMLN controls the Salvadoran government after the March 2004 presidential elections, it could mean a radical change in آمريڪا policy regarding the essentially free flow of remittances from Salvadorans living in the آمريڪا جي طرف ايل سلواڊور." Bush administration officials such as Assistant Secretary of State Roger Noriega and Special White House Assistant Otto Reich further suggested that an FMLN election could jeopardize the immigration status of Salvadorans allowed in the گڏيل رياستون under the Temporary Protected Status program.
In December 2008, several dozen prominent North American academics specializing in لاطيني آمريڪا signed a letter expressing concern that such interference in the Salvadoran electoral process might be repeated. They cited statements in May 2008 by then-U.S. Ambassador to ايل سلواڊور, Charles Glazer, who tried to tie the FMLN with the violent FARC guerrilla organization of ڪولمبيا. Without substantiating these ties, Glazer ominously said, "any group that collaborates or expresses friendship with the FARC is not a friend of the گڏيل رياستون." Furthermore, U.S. Director of Intelligence J. Michael McConnell claimed in February 2008, also without substantiation, that the FMLN would be receiving "generous financing" from وينز ويلا‘s Hugo Chávez in the elections. "Such statements," the academics argued, "constitute unacceptable outside interference in the electoral process."
Fortunately, despite early warning signs, incidences of آمريڪا officials making such threats over the past year have been limited, and the change in government in واشنگٽن bodes well for non-interference. Thus far, the new Obama administration appears resolved to remain on the sidelines. Moreover, the decision of Nicaraguan voters in late 2006 to elect Daniel Ortega, a candidate who ran a populist campaign that prompted its own round of Bush administration warnings, gave the FMLN hope that the lingering impact of واشنگٽن‘s threats may not be decisive this time around.
قومي مفادن جي ٻيهر تعريف
Given a disastrous history of intervention, a form of benign neglect from the Obama administration represents a significant improvement in آمريڪا policy. Democratic critics faulted President Bush for not taking a more energetic role in Latin American affairs. However, the last eight years have been a period of robust democratic debate in the region, which flourished in part because White House attentions were focused on the وچ اوڀر. When the Bush administration did take an active interest in Latin America, as in ايل سلواڊور in 2004, the results were negative.
For the Obama administration to do better, it must develop a new understanding if U.S. national interest — one that repudiates not only the military interventionism that fueled many "dirty wars" like El Salvador’s, but also the Washington Consensus economic policies that were forcefully promoted even under Democratic administrations such as Bill Clinton’s. In September, Obama railed against the doctrines of deregulation and trickle-down prosperity, describing the financial crisis as "the final verdict on an economic philosophy that has completely failed." Acknowledging that market fundamentalist policies have wreaked havoc in North and ڏکڻ آمريڪا alike, the White House should applaud countries that pursue economic alternatives.
درحقيقت، اها سڄي اڌ گول ۾ نيو لبرل معاشي پاليسين جي ناڪامي آهي، نه ته شاويز جون اهي سازشون جيڪي گذريل ڏهاڪي ۾ چونڊون کٽڻ واري ترقي پسند حڪومتن جي لهر جو سبب بڻيون آهن. جيڪڏهن فينس ايل سلواڊور ۾ غالب ٿيڻ گهرجي، هن وٽ همراهن جو هڪ وسيع سلسلو هوندو جن کان سبق حاصل ڪرڻ لاءِ - ايوو مورالس کان بوليويا تائين، ارجنٽائن ۾ ڪرسٽينا ڪرچنر تائين، برازيل ۾ لوئيز اناسيو لولا دا سلوا تائين، رياست جي نئين ترقي پسند سربراهه تائين. ، فرننڊو لوگو، هڪ اڳوڻو ڪلارڪ جيڪو ”بشپ آف دي پوور“ جي نالي سان مشهور آهي، جيڪو گذريل آگسٽ ۾ پيراگوئي جي صدر طور حلف کنيو هو.
Obama’s own desire to break with Republican economics might make him sympathetic to Funes’s vows for greater spending on social services and money to stimulate the local economy. With regard to trade, Funes’s criticisms of CAFTA have been subdued and generally vague, perhaps as part of his effort to court support in the business community. Nonetheless, the FMLN as a party has harshly condemned the free-trade model. This, too, has a parallel in آمريڪا politics. On the campaign trail, Obama’s literature presented him as a "consistent opponent of NAFTA and other bad trade deals," criticizing their lack of protections for workers’ rights and the environment. As a senator, Obama voted against CAFTA, deriding "the White House’s inattention to the losers from free trade."
Yet even while the Democratic Party overwhelmingly opposed CAFTA, the White House and media commentators routinely painted foreign countries that opposed unjust "free trade" deals with the گڏيل رياستون as anti-American. President Obama is uniquely situated to break this pattern and dismiss the ridiculous double standard.
In describing the national interest of the گڏيل رياستون, elected leaders have regularly invoked a desire to promote democracy and alleviate poverty in لاطيني آمريڪا. As the history of ايل سلواڊور vividly illustrates, these worthy goals have been ill-served by past interventionism — military, economic, and electoral. But they are goals shared by the progressive governments that are winning elections and coming to power with mandates to find economic alternatives. There could be few better reasons, on the eve of the first presidential elections in the hemisphere since Obama’s inauguration, for his administration to again embrace change and adopt a new vision of the آمريڪا ۾ ڪردار آمریڪا.
- مارڪ اينگلر، هڪ ليکڪ جي بنياد تي نيو يارڪ شهر, is a Foreign Policy In Focus senior analyst ۽ مصنف جو دنيا تي حڪمراني ڪيئن ڪجي: عالمي معيشت تي ايندڙ جنگ (قومي ڪتاب، 2008). هن ويب سائيٽ ذريعي پهچي سگهجي ٿو http://www.DemocracyUprising.com. هن مضمون لاء تحقيق جي مدد سان سين نورز پاران مهيا ڪيل.
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