Ku Egypt, dziko lomwe lili ndi tsankho kwambiri komanso lovuta kwambiri, zowona zimasokoneza.
Mbali iliyonse imadzinenera zoona zakezake ndipo imakana kuvomerezeka kwa ena, kuwachotsa ngati otengeka kapena ogulitsa. Maphwando a ku Aigupto ali otanganidwa ndi ziwanda wina ndi mzake ndipo mkati mwake akusintha maloto a utsogoleri wabwino kukhala maloto owopsa komanso achiwawa.
Zolipiritsa ndi zotsutsana ndi zosokoneza zakunja ndi njira zosavomerezeka zimatha kupita mtunda wina ngakhale ndalama, chipembedzo, kukakamiza ndi kusokoneza zakhala zikugwiritsidwa ntchito. Injini yakusintha mu 'zowukira' zonse zakhala kusakhutitsidwa kwa anthu ndi momwe zinthu zilili posatengera kuti ziyembekezo zawo zinali zenizeni kapena zenizeni.
Komabe, tsopano pamene maphwando akutembenukirana wina ndi mzake, tikhoza kuyembekezera zambiri zomwezo, ndipo mwinamwake zoipitsitsa, kuwonjezeka kwa mikangano m'masiku ndi masabata akubwera, pokhapokha iwo omwe akhala akulakwitsa ndikuumirira kukhala olondola, azichita modzichepetsa ndi mwanzeru. .
Kusokoneza malonda
Kuyambira pa January 25, 2011, pamene zopinga za mantha zinathetsedwa ndipo anthu anapatsidwa mphamvu zolankhula momasuka, mawu osonyeza chidani ndi zosonkhezera anthu, opanda zolakwa zilizonse kapena makhalidwe abwino, apezekanso mโmabwalo a anthu onse. nthawi zosatsimikizika.
Masiku ano, mphekesera zosawerengeka, zabodza zopanda maziko komanso zabodza zimawonekera ngati nkhani mkati ndi kunja kwa Egypt. Pafupifupi zochitika zonse zikufikiridwa, kukonzedwa ndikuperekedwa molingana ndi zikhulupiriro zandale ndi zandale. Izi sizikutanthauza kuti kusaloลตerera mโndale nโkoona kapena nโkofunika kuti munthu aganizire mozama. Koma kuwonetsetsa pankhani yopereka zowona mosasamala kanthu za zotsatira zake, sikunakhalekonso pankhani yomwe ilipo, komanso nthawi zambiri, ku Egypt.
Chiwandacho mwina ndi gawo loyipa kwambiri kuposa zonse, poganizira kuti posachedwa Aigupto ochokera m'mitundu yonse komanso m'badwo uliwonse adzafunika kukhala moyandikana, mwamtendere komanso mogwirizana.
Msasa uliwonse ukuchepa mkati mwa lingaliro lolingalira la chilungamo; mbali iliyonse, kuphatikizapo asilikali, odzinenera kuti atetezere kuwukirako, nthawi zonse kusintha kwawo.
Choipa kwambiri nโchakuti, atolankhani omveka bwino a boma lakale komanso zoulutsira nkhani zikusokonezanso zinthu ponena kuti zipolowe zomwe zinachitika pa June 30 zidzakonza zolakwika zomwe zidachitika pa 25 January kuti zibwerere ku nthawi ya Mubarak.
Zolephera za Ubale
Ndizowona kuti gulu la Muslim Brotherhood silinayambe kuwukira, komabe lidakhala gawo lothandizira komanso lamphamvu pakuwukira kotsutsa boma la Mubarak.
Abale, mofanana ndi magulu ena a zipolowe, anathamangira zisankho popanda kufika pa mgwirizano wokhudza kukhazikitsidwa kwa zolinga za chigamulo mโboma ndi malamulo ake. Izi zinapangitsa kuti lingaliro lililonse lomwe likanagwirizanitsa maguluwo kukhala ogwirizana, mfundo yotsutsana pankhondo zawo zandale zandale.
Ndipo ndizowonanso kuti magulu achisilamu akale komanso okonzekera bwino adapita kukapambana zisankho, mwachilungamo komanso mopanda malire, motsutsana ndi "kutsutsa" kogawanika. Koma akanatha kutenga zotsalira za ulamuliro wakale mu maulamuliro, chitetezo ndi asilikali kapena otchedwa "deep state" potengera njira yogwirizana ndi otsutsa kuti apange ulamuliro weniweni, wogwirizana wa dziko.
Adayesa kusangalatsa asitikali, monga mu Novembala 2011 pomwe adawonetsa kusayanjanitsika ndi ziwawa zomwe zidachitika pamsewu wozungulira Tahrir Square ndi Mohamed Mahmoud Street m'manja mwa asitikali - zomwe zidapangitsa kuti 40 aphedwe. anthu, ena mwa iwo anawomberedwa mโmaso.
Ndipo sanasonyeze kukhwima kwa ndale kofunikira, osanena kalikonse za changu chosintha zinthu, chochirikiza ndondomeko ya ndale ndi malamulo yogwirizanadi. Mโmalo mwake, iwo anaumirira kuika masomphenya opapatiza pa Igupto watsopano.
Zotsutsa ndizofanana
Ngati kusintha kwa January 25 kunalimbikitsidwa ndi kukana ulamuliro wa Mubarak ndikuyembekeza moyo wabwino, waufulu ndi wotukuka kwambiri, kuwukira kwa June 30 kunayendetsedwa ndi kukana "ulamuliro wa Abale" ndi zomwe zimawoneka ngati kuyesa kwawo kulanda boma. kusintha ndikukhazikitsa zolinga zawo zachisilamu.
Chabwino, ndi chinthu chimodzi chofunikira chotsimikizirika: Purezidenti wakale anali wolamulira mwankhanza yemwe adapambana zisankho zamwambo pomwe womalizayo adapambana zisankho zaulere.
Kusaleza mtima kwa otsutsa ndi Morsi, ngakhale ndizomveka poganizira zonse zomwe tatchulazi, sizikanawapangitsa kuti agwirizane ndi akuluakulu ankhondo, osakhazikika komanso osakhalitsa. Gulu lawo lotchuka linali kuika chitsenderezo chachikulu pa boma, ndipo ngati ilo likanapitiriza ndi kusanduka kusamvera kwa anthu mโdziko lonselo, likanapangitsa kuti boma ligwe.
M'malo mwake, adasankha njira yayifupi komanso yabwino yochotsera purezidenti wosankhidwa: mokakamiza. Ndipo amakhala chete momveka bwino pomwe Purezidenti wakale Morsi akadali m'manja mwa asitikali. Ndizodabwitsanso kuti akuyembekeza kuti gulu la Muslim Brotherhood livomera kuyitanidwa kukakambirana ndikulowa nawo muyanjanitso wadziko pomwe Purezidenti Morsi akamangidwa.
The banality of force
Akuluakulu ankhondo sali osalakwa pa zonsezi. Iwo amayangโana pa nkhani za ndale ndipo amangoona mavuto achitetezo.
Inde, asilikali a ku Aigupto adatsimikizira kuti pa nthawi ya kuukira kwa January 25 anali a boma - osati boma - pamene adagwirizana ndi anthu. Asilikali adapanga chisankho choyenera ndipo adakondwera nacho.
Koma panthawiyi, idagwirizana ndi chipani china pa chinzake m'njira yofulumira komanso yowopsa.
Chenjezo la chipwirikiti likanakhala lomveka. Minister of Defense Abdel Fattah al-Sisi adalimbikitsanso kuti pangotsala sabata imodzi kuti awopseza Purezidenti ndi chigamulo cha maola 48, pambuyo pake asitikali adalowamo, sizikuyenda bwino mtsogolo mwa demokalase. Akuluakulu a asilikaliwo anali olondola pochenjeza za kusokonekera kotheratu. Koma nduna ya zachitetezo Sisi sakuwoneka kuti sakuwona chodabwitsa pouza apolisi ake polankhula kuti iye, wamkulu wankhondo, anali wongofuna kupatsa "anthu" chifuniro kwa Purezidenti wosankhidwa.
Ngakhale Sisi amavomereza kuthamangira kusokoneza kufunikira kopewa kusakhazikika ndi ziwawa, kulanda kwake kudapangitsa kuti chiwonjezeko chomwe iwo akuyembekezeka kupewa - ndipo mwina zambiri zikubwera, kalanga.
Ngakhale adanenetsa kuti sanapereke pulezidenti, zikutheka kuti zomwe zimawoneka ngati kuthamangitsidwa kwa Purezidenti Morsi, zidabisa njira yayitali komanso mwadala yochotsa dziko lachisilamu, njira yomwe idaphatikizira kusokoneza njira monga mafuta. kusowa, etc.
Mfundo yakuti akuluakulu ankhondo alibe ndipo mwina sakufuna kulamulira mwachindunji sizikutanthauza kuti sakutsogola kumbuyo. Zowonadi, zolankhula zaposachedwa za Sisi Lachitatu, kuyitanitsa misonkhano yapadziko lonse kuti ilole mphamvu zazikulu zankhondo, amatsimikizira kuti ndi wokhutira kutsogolera kuchokera ndi kudutsa mumsewu.
Monga magulu ankhondo onse padziko lapansi, ntchito ya asitikali aku Egypt ndikuteteza dzikolo ndi ulamuliro wake, osati kulimbikitsa demokalase. Monga ndidatsindika pakuwunika koyambirira, ndi kapangidwe kake ka piramidi, gulu lankhondo ndi bungwe lolamulira.
Ku Egypt, komwe asitikali amalamulira zokonda zambiri komanso mwayi wapadera, sizikudziwika chifukwa chake zingabwezeretse demokalase. Asilikali amatha kugwiritsa ntchito chipwirikiti chomwe chikuchitika kuti asunge mphamvu zake m'malo mofulumizitsa kubwezeretsedwa kwa demokalase, pokhapokha ngati akukumana ndi zovuta zambiri.
Ndi udindo wa zipani za ndale za dziko lino zomwe zinatsogolera chisinthikocho kuti asiye kusiyana kwawo pa ndale pofuna kuteteza zomwe zachitika ndi kukwaniritsa zolinga zake. Izi zimafuna kukhwima pa ndale ndipo zipani zimayika chitukuko ndi zofuna za dziko pamwamba pa zofuna za zipani zawo.
Zosavuta kunena kuposa kuchita? Inde, mwina. Koma palibe njira ina. Ngakhale zitatenga zaka ndi miyoyo yambiri, Aigupto adzafunikabe kukhala pansi ndi kulingalira tsogolo lawo limodzi.
Kuwona kwatsopano
Chiyembekezo chokhudza kusintha kwa demokalase chakhala chongolakalaka chabe pamene Aigupto akutenga njira yayitali yopita kukakwaniritsa masomphenya amodzi a Egypt yatsopano - republic yawo yachiwiri.
Mbiri ikhoza kukhala kumbali ya iwo omwe amatsutsa ulamuliro wankhanza ndikuchotsa wolamulira wankhanza pofuna "mkate, ufulu ndi chilungamo cha anthu". Koma ngakhale kuti nthawi ili yofunika kwambiri, tsogolo silimangiriridwa ndi chowerengera dzira.
Ndinalembera Arabu Wosaoneka, kuti kusintha kumeneku si nkhani yothamanga. Zili ngati mpikisano wa marathon, kapenanso, kuthamanga.
โKuchuluka kulikonse kwa demokalase mโzaka za zana zapitazi,โ analemba motero wolemba mbiri Sheri Berman mu Zachilendo, " [...] yatsatiridwa ndi kukakamizidwa, komwe kumatsagana ndi mafunso ambiri okhudzana ndi kuthekera komanso kufunika kwa ulamuliro wademokalase m'madera omwe akufunsidwa."
Phunziro kuchokera pakusintha kwazaka mazana awiri kuyambira pomwe dziko la France likusintha ndikuti maulamuliro ankhanza atha kukhazikitsidwa ndikuchotsedwa munthawi yochepa kwambiri kuposa momwe zimatengera kuti akafike pa demokalase yovomerezeka.
Munthu angathe kuyembekezera kuti m'malo mobwereza zolakwa za omwe adawatsogolera omwe adatenga nthawi yayitali kuti asinthe kusintha kwabwino, Aigupto amaphunzira kuchokera ku maphunziro a mbiri yakale.
Marwan Bishara ndi katswiri wazandale ku Al Jazeera.
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
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