Zaka zisanu zamavuto, anthu ku Greece ali otopa komanso otopa - ndipo m'pomveka. Theka la zaka khumi, palibe chomwe chiri monga chinaliri; komabe zonse zikadali chimodzimodzi. Mabungwe akale a ndale achotsedwa pampando, koma obwereketsa akadali olamulira. Troika yachotsedwa mwalamulo, koma mabungwe omwewo akupitiliza kusokoneza dzikoli pang'onopang'ono mpaka kufa. Pakadali pano, chiyembekezo chaching'ono chomwe chidatsitsimutsidwa ndi chigonjetso chambiri cha Syriza mu Januwale chikuthetsedwa mwachangu ndi mdima womwe ulipo wa kugonjetsedwa komwe kwayandikira.
Chodabwitsa n'chakuti, zofuna zazikulu za omwe abwereketsa zikuthandizira kuti malingaliro odana ndi yuro apite patsogolo ku Greece, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti kusakhulupirika ndi Grexit kuchuluke. Koma kaya zotsatira zake zidzakhala zotani, zokambiranazo zavumbula kale mfundo yofunikira ponena za kutsika kwa moyo wandale wamakono ku Ulaya. Izi, ngati zili choncho, ndi ndale monga chowonera; sewero losachita bwino lomwe nzika wamba zachepetsedwa pang'onopang'ono kukhala owonerera osayang'ana, kuyang'ana mopanda mphamvu pamitu yaposachedwa ndikufuula mopanda tanthauzo pazithunzi zawo za kanema wawayilesi - kutsutsidwa kumasewera ongopeka nthawi zonse onena za zolinga zenizeni za oyimira awo osankhidwa.
Kwa miyezi isanu tsopano, zomwe takhala tikukambirana ndikuti ngati pakhala mgwirizano kapena ayi. Koma nchiyani chinachitika tsiku lotsatira? Kodi Syriza angatani atakhala mu euro? Kodi chingachite chiyani ngati chikasokonekera ndikuchoka? Kodi ziyembekezo za Greece ndi zotani m'zaka zikubwerazi, zaka khumi zikubwerazi? Pali moyo pambuyo pa zokambirana. Kodi zikhala bwanji?
Pankhani ya mkangano wosagwirizana kwambiri, ndi ochepa omwe akuwoneka kuti akuwona mfundo yakuti mapulani onsewa amagawana malingaliro omwe ali pamwamba-pansi: ngati boma litachita bwino pokwaniritsa pulogalamu yomwe yasankhidwa, kukonzanso kwachuma kudzakhala kofulumira ndipo zinthu zidzabwereranso mwamsanga. momwe iwo analiri kale.
Zoonadi, kuyimitsa ngongole ndi kubweretsanso dalakima kungabwezeretse malingaliro ofunikira a ulemu ndi ufulu wadziko, kupangitsa Plan B kukhala njira yopititsira patsogolo kwambiri kusiyana ndi kupitiriza kukhala mu ukapolo wangongole pansi pa malingaliro a ongongole a dziko. Koma m'zaka ndi makumi angapo zikubwerazi ngakhale Grexit ndi kutsika mtengo sikungayang'ane ndi zovuta zakuya zachi Greek capitalism.
Mosiyana ndi Mapulani A ndi Mapulani B, Mapulani C angadzikhazikike molunjika pa moyo watsiku ndi tsiku. Zikadakhala makamaka polimbikitsa anthu ogwira ntchito odzipangira okha komanso madera akumidzi, kugwirizanitsa mabungwe omwe alipo komanso kumanga ziwalo zatsopano zamphamvu zotchuka. Plan C imagwira ntchito modziyimira payokha kuchokera ku Plan A kapena Plan B: chingakhale chofunikira kuti izi zitheke, komabe njira yake yopita m'mwamba ingakhale yosagwirizana nthawi zonse ndi malingaliro awo apamwamba apansi.
Koma kupirira pakokha sikokwanira. Obwereketsa akunja aku Greece ndi oligarchs akunyumba angasangalale "kupereka" maudindo awo kwa ena kuti apitilize nkhanza zawo pachilichonse chomwe chatsala mdzikolo. Izi zikutifikitsa ku mfundo yachiwiri: kuthekera kwa kukana. Mayendedwe odzipangira okha, malo ogwira ntchito ndi madera akhoza - kachiwiri - kukhala maziko a kutsutsa koopsa kwa midzi yowonjezereka ndi kulandidwa. Mbiri yasonyeza kuti, popanda ziŵalo zozama zozama zoterozo za mphamvu zotchuka zokakamiza kuchokera pansi, ngakhale maboma osiyidwa amasokeretsedwa mosavuta.
Kaya zotsatira za zokambirana za ngongole zili zotani, kumanzere sikungathe kuchepetsa malingaliro ake a ndale ku funso la kukhazikika kwa Tsipras m'zipinda za Brussels. Kungoganizira pang'ono pazokambitsirana kumangotulutsa malingaliro omwewo akutali ndi kuchotsedwa mphamvu zomwe ndale za EU zidayenera kuyambitsa poyamba. Kuchita kapena ayi, kulimbana kwanthawi yayitali kudakali patsogolo. Kungowonjezereka kofulumira kwa kulimbana kuchokera pansi kungathe kupulumutsa Greece yowonongeka - ndikuyisintha, kachiwiri, kukhala chizindikiro chonyada cha demokalase padziko lonse lapansi.
Jerome Roos ndi wofufuza wa PhD mu International Political Economy ku European University Institute, komanso mkonzi woyambitsa wa ROAR Magazine. Tsatirani iye pa Twitter pa @JeromeRoos.
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