Pentagon Leaks yawonetsa kuti, malinga ndi momwe asitikali aku US akuwonera, kusamvana pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine kwafika pachimake. Palibe mbali iliyonse yomwe ingapambane m'tsogolomu, malinga ndi kuwunika. Atsogoleri akuluakulu ankhondo, monga General Mark Milley, wapampando wa Joint Chiefs of Staff, adanena izi poyera pamaso. Izi zimapangitsa kukambirana, movuta momwe kungakhalire, njira yokhayo yomveka. Kuti nkhondoyi ipitirire pansi pazimenezi zingayambitse kukhetsa magazi kosatha, ku Verdun yatsopano, popanda kukwaniritsa kubwezeretsedwa kwa gawo la Chiyukireniya. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, kuwonjezeka kwa nyukiliya kudzakhala kowonjezereka.
Mkhalidwe uliwonse wabwino pa mkangano wotero uyenera kupenda kuopsa ndi kudzimana kumene kungaperekedwe kaamba ka cholinga ndi zimene zingatheke. Komabe ngakhale funso lakuti ndi anthu angati ku Ukraine omwe ayenera kufa kuti asinthe njira yamtsogolo ya malire ndi makilomita angati omwe amaonedwa kuti ndi onyoza komanso opanda mgwirizano ndi ambiri omwe amalankhula mokweza ngati abwenzi a Ukraine. Koma sichoncho, m'malo mwake, kusuliza kusafunsa funso lomweli mumkhalidwe wamakono? Kupatula apo, omwe amamwalira ndi Asitikali aku Ukraine ndi aku Russia, osati omwe amakumbukira ku Berlin kapena Washington za zolinga zankhondo ndi mfundo zabwino. Ndipo omwe akukhudzidwa ku Ukraine iwonso pakali pano alibe mwayi wofotokoza malingaliro awo pankhaniyi povota.
Funso lomwe ladzutsidwa apa likubweretsa kusiyana kwakukulu pakati pa zomwe Max Weber anazitcha "makhalidwe abwino kwambiri" ndi "makhalidwe abwino." Ochirikiza mfundo za makhalidwe abwino amakhala okhutira kuteteza mfundo zosamveka ngakhale zitakhala bwanji. Anthu amene amakonda kukhala ndi udindo amaganizira zimene akufuna. Kwa ife, izi zingatanthauze kufunsa kuti: Kodi ndiyenera kuchita chiyani m'dziko lenileni, lomwe nthawi zambiri limakhala losokonezeka kuti ndipulumutse miyoyo yambiri momwe ndingathere, kupatsa Ukraine tsogolo, ndikuletsa nkhondo yanyukiliya?
Ndondomeko ya dรฉtente yotsatiridwa ndi Chancellor wakale wa Germany Willy Brandt ndi Mlembi Wakale wa Boma ku Chancellery ya Germany Egon Bahr, mwachitsanzo, adazikidwa m'mbali zambiri pa chikhalidwe chaudindo. Ngakhale titatsutsa mwamphamvu olamulira ku Kremlin, ngakhale titaganiza kuti ndi thupi la zoipa, tiyenera kulankhula nawo ngakhale kukambirana. Choyamba, kuti tipeze mpumulo wokhazikika kwa anthu, ndipo chachiwiri, kutiteteza ife tonse kuti tisafe pankhondo ya nyukiliya. Kuti akwaniritse zimenezi, maphunziro apamwamba a makhalidwe abwino ndi kupembedzera โmakhalidwe a Azunguโ kaลตirikaลตiri zimakhala zotsutsana. Angapangitse munthu kudzimva kukhala wokwezeka mโmakhalidwe ndi ku mbali yamanja, koma samachita kalikonse kufooketsa mkhalidwewo. M'malo mwake, monga momwe zinalili pankhondo yolimbana ndi zoopsa pambuyo pa 9/11, kudzitamandira kumabisa malingaliro a zenizeni ndipo motero kungayambitse chiwonongeko.
Mfundo za Geopolitical ndi chilengedwe
Funso, mtundu wa makhalidwe omwe timasankha, umapita kutali ndi zotsatira za nkhondo m'lingaliro lochepetsetsa ndikukhudzana ndi zochitika zapadziko lonse lapansi. Dziko lapansi likuyang'anizana ndi mikangano yowopsa, yazandale komanso zachilengedwe. Chifukwa chimodzi, kulimbana kwatsopano kosatha kumawonjezera kwambiri ngozi yankhondo yanyukiliya. Ngakhale kusinthana kwa zida za nyukiliya "zochepa" kungabweretse padziko lonse nyengo yozizira ya nyukiliya ndikuwononga gawo lalikulu la anthu. Pazifukwa izi zokha, zokambirana zozikidwa pa zikhalidwe zaudindo ndiye njira yokhayo yomveka.
Chachiwiri, nkhondo yatsopano yozizira komanso yotentha imawononga mwayi woletsa kugwa kwa nyengo ndi biosphere m'njira zingapo. Tikadutsa madera omwe akuyandikira kwambiri nyengo, Dziko lapansi likuwopseza kulowa m'malo atsopano omwe asayansi anyengo amatcha Hothouse Earth. Madera onse a Dziko Lapansi, kuphatikizapo madera a South Asia, Middle East ndi Africa, sangakhalemo. Kuti izi zitheke, mafuta ochulukirapo ambiri padziko lapansi ayenera kukhala pansi. Pachifukwa ichi, kulimbitsa mgwirizano wapadziko lonse - kuphatikizapo China ndi Russia - ndizofunikira kwambiri.
Ngakhale kuti izi zingawonekere pakali pano, Kumadzulo kuyenera kupangitsa Russia kupereka momwe ingasinthire yokha kuchokera kwa wogulitsa kunja kwa mafuta opangira mafuta kukhala opanga mphamvu zowonjezereka - chifukwa dziko lalikulu kwambiri padziko lapansi lili ndi kuthekera kwakukulu kwa izi. Ngati dziko la Russia likadali lachiwonetsero kuchokera ku Western, dziko lomwe munthu salankhulana naye, maganizo oterowo ndi osatheka.
Mkangano watsopanowu ukuwopsyezanso njira zomwe zikufunika kuti pakhale kusintha kwachilengedwe kukhala kowononga kwambiri komanso kuwononga nyengo m'magulu onse: asitikali. Izi zikuwonetsa kubwereza kowopsa kwa mphamvu ya post-9/11. Ntchito ya "Cost of War" yochokera ku Brown University imayika mtengo wankhondo ku Afghanistan ku bajeti ya US yokha $ Biliyoni 2,100 - chofanana ndi 300 miliyoni osayerekezeka tsiku, zaka zoposa 20. Nkhondo za Iraq ndi Syria zimawononga ndalama $ Biliyoni 1,800. Poyerekeza, bajeti yomwe mayiko omwe akutukuka akufunira kwa zaka zambiri kuti athane ndi zotsatira zoyipa kwambiri za kusintha kwa nyengo ndi madola mabiliyoni a 100 - ndalama zochepa poyerekezera, koma zomwe mayiko olemera olemera sanapezebe mokwanira.
Malinga ndi kuwerengera kwa katswiri wazachuma waku US Robert Pollin, Global Green New Deal yogwira ntchito yomwe ingathe kuteteza chipwirikiti chowononga nyengo ingawononge pafupifupi $ 4.5 thililiyoni pachaka - pafupifupi 5 peresenti ya GDP yapadziko lonse. Ndalamazi zikanakhala zotsika mtengo, koma pokhapokha ngati ndalama zankhondo zapadziko lonse zingachepetsedwe nthawi imodzi. Kumanga kwa zida zatsopano kumbali zonse ziwiri chifukwa cha nkhondo ya ku Ukraine kukuwopsezanso kuletsa njira yopita ku kusintha kwakukulu kwa chilengedwe. Ndipo ndi iwo, mwayi wotsiriza wosunga dongosolo la Dziko Lapansi monga momwe timadziwira kuti liyenera kuikidwa m'manda.
Pakadali pano, zikuwonekeranso chifukwa chake mayendedwe amtendere ndi nyengo amalumikizana mosagwirizana. Kuyesetsa kwakukulu kwa kayendetsedwe ka nyengo kudzakhala kopanda phindu ngati sikuphatikizidwa ndi ndondomeko yeniyeni ya mtendere. Komanso, sipadzakhala mtendere ngati titalowa m'chipwirikiti cha nyengo ndi zida za nyukiliya 14,000 ndi zida zazing'ono biliyoni mabiliyoni padziko lapansi. Ichi ndichifukwa chake pali udindo waukulu pamagulu omwe agawika kwambiri pakali pano kuti afikire wina ndi mnzake, kumanga milatho ndikuchita zinthu limodzi, ngakhale pali kusiyana kulikonse.
Nkhani ya ulamuliro
Kufunika kofulumira kwa zokambirana nthawi zambiri kumatayidwa ndi mfundo ziwiri. Mmodzi, akuti, munthu sangathe kukambirana ndi chilombo ngati Putin. Koma mbiri ya zokambirana za Marichi 2022, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti pakhale kuyanjana kwakukulu pakati pa mbali ziwirizi, zikutsimikizira zosiyana. Kachiwiri, zimanenedwa mobwerezabwereza, makamaka ndi boma la US, kuti sikuli kwa ife kuti tipereke malingaliro osagwirizana, kuti ndi a Ukrainians okha. Zoonadi, zili ku Ukraine makamaka nzika zake - zomwe, komabe, sizinafunsidwe nkomwe za izi kwa zaka zambiri - kupanga zisankho zokhudzana ndi nkhondo, mtendere ndi zokambirana. Koma sizikukhudzana ndi zenizeni kunamizira kuti nkhondoyi ikuchitika mu malo opanda kanthu. Maudindo a France, Germany, United Kingdom, makamaka United States ali ndi chikoka chachikulu pazisankho za boma la Ukraine, monga momwe China ndi mayiko ena ku Global South amakhudzira Moscow. Kiev imadalira kwathunthu Washington pazachuma komanso zankhondo; popanda thandizo, boma likhoza kugwa posachedwa. M'menemo, kunamizira kuti boma la Ukraine limadzidalira komanso lodzilamulira ndilopanda nzeru.
Ndizosangalatsanso kuti mkangano wotsutsana ndi kusokoneza umachokera ku US, m'mayiko onse, omwe asokoneza kwambiri zinthu za Ukraine kwa nthawi yaitali. Kumayambiriro kwa February 2014, pamene zipolowe za Maidan zomwe pambuyo pake zinapangitsa kuti boma la Yanukovych ligwetsedwe, kutulutsidwa kwa zokambirana za foni pakati pa Victoria Nuland, yemwe panthawiyo anali kazembe wamkulu wa US ku EU, ndi Geoffrey Pyatt, kazembe wa U.S. Kiev, kugwa. Kuyimba foni kudadziwika bwino chifukwa cha mawu a Nuland akuti "Fuck the EU." Zosadziwika bwino, koma zofunika kwambiri, ndi momwe Nuland ndi Pyatt anakambitsirana zomwe boma la mtsogolo la Ukraine liyenera kuwoneka. Apa pali kagawo:
NULAND: Sindikuganiza kuti Klitsch ayenera kukhala m'boma. Ndikuganiza kuti sikofunikira, si lingaliro labwino.
PYATT: Eya, ndikutanthauza, kuli bwino kumusiya ndikumusiya azichita homuweki yake yandale. Ndikuganiza kuti potengera ndondomeko yomwe ikupita patsogolo, tikufuna kuti ma Democrats azikhala pamodzi. Vuto lidzakhala Tyagnibok ndi anthu ake. [Oleg Tyagnibok anali wapampando wa chipani chakumanja, anti-Semitic Svoboda]. (โฆ)
NULAND: Ndikuganiza kuti Yats ndi munthu yemwe ali ndi chidziwitso pazachuma, zochitika za boma. Iye ndiye mwamunayo. Zomwe amafunikira ndi Klitsch ndi Tyagnibok kunja. Ayenera kulankhula nawo kanayi pamlungu.
"Yats" (kutanthauza Arseniy Yatsenuk) ndi "Klitsch" (Vitali Klitschko): Palibe amene angalephere kuganiza kuti Nuland ndi Pyatt ankawona akuluakulu a ndale otsutsa panthawiyo ngati zidole zomwe ziyenera kusokonezedwa pa tebulo lobiriwira la Washington. M'malo mwake, chikhumbo cha Nuland choti "Yats" akhale nduna yayikulu ya Ukraine chinakhala chenicheni patangotha โโโโmasabata angapo atayimba foni. Kodi izi ndi momwe zimawonekera pothana ndi dziko lodziimira lomwe limapanga zisankho zodziyimira pawokha?
Nkhondo yaku Ukraine ndi nkhondo yapadziko lonse lapansi, ikumenyedwa mokulira chifukwa cha zolinga zadziko, ndipo imakhudza mwayi wokhala ndi moyo wa anthu onse padziko lapansi. Boma la US liyenera kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zake kuchitapo kanthu kuti lithe, m'malo mosiya njira zokambilana ndi mikangano yopepuka. Brazil, China ndi South Africa akhazikitsa njira zatsopano zamtendere. Mayiko akumadzulo agwirizane nawo.
Fabian Scheidler
Fabian Scheidler ndi mlembi wa buku la "Mapeto a Megamachine. A Brief History of a Failing Civilization,โ lomwe linamasuliridwa mโzinenero zingapo (www.mapeto-kwa-
megamachine.com). Buku lake laposachedwa kwambiri ndi "The Stuff We Are Made Of. Kuganizanso za Chilengedwe ndi Gulu ". Fabian Scheidler adalemba ngati mtolankhani waulere ku Berliner Zeitung, Frankfurter Rundschau, Wiener Zeitung, Taz, Blรคtter fรผr deutsche und internationale Politik, Jacobin, The Progressive, Radio France ndi ena. Mu 2009, adalandira Mphotho ya Otto Brenner Media yautolankhani wovuta.
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