KUCHIYAMBI kwa chaka chatsopano, atsogoleri a chikapitalist amakonda kulonjeza kuti zinthu zidzayenda bwino m’tsogolo. Zowonadi, ku US, Barack Obama akulankhulanso za 'mphukira zobiriwira zakuchira', akulozera kugwa kwakung'ono kwa ziwerengero za kusowa kwa ntchito. Ku Ulaya, komabe, Chancellor waku Germany, Angela Merkel, akulosera kuti 2012 idzakhala yovuta kwambiri ku eurozone kuposa 2011. Purezidenti wa ku France, Nicolas Sarkozy, akuchenjeza za "chaka cha zoopsa zonse". Ku India, a Manmohan Singh, nduna yayikulu, adachenjeza amwenye kuti asatengeke kukula mwachangu - ndipo chenjezoli likugwiranso ntchito ku China, yomwe yawoneka ngati njira yoyendetsera kukula kwapadziko lonse m'zaka zaposachedwa.
Atsogoleriwa asiya zonamizira kuti mavuto azachuma komanso kusokonekera kwachuma kwa 2007-09 kunali vuto lalikulu komanso kuti zonse posachedwapa zibwerera "zabwinobwino". M’chenicheni, Yuropu walowa kale m’kugwa kwachuma, ndipo kwachedwa kwambiri kuti maulamuliro aakulu a chikapitalist achitepo kanthu kalikonse kamene kangapeŵe zimenezi. Funso lokhalo ndiloti ngati kudzakhala kutsika kwachuma, kubwezeredwa m'chaka china kapena kuposerapo, kapena kutsika kwakukulu, kwanthawi yaitali.
Mabanki a Eurozone ali pamavuto
MABANJA a EUROZONE akukumana ndi vuto latsopano, ndi kufinyidwa kwakukulu kwa ngongole (zomwe zikukulitsa kukula kwachuma ku Europe). Mabanki akuluakulu angapo akukakamizikanso kufunafuna thandizo la boma. Mabanki a Eurozone akuyenera kukweza pafupifupi € 115 biliyoni kuti akwaniritse nkhokwe zatsopano zomwe zimafunikira pansi pa mgwirizano wa Basel III, womwe umaletsa nkhokwe 9%. Njira iyi ndi yoletsa kubwereketsa mosasamala komwe kudapangitsa kuti mabanki agwa mu 2008/09. Koma pakali pano, malamulo atsopanowa akuwonjezera vutoli. Zomwe zimafunikira likulu latsopano, limodzi ndi kufunikira kwa kubweza ngongole zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pothandizira mabizinesi apano, zikutanthauza kuti mabanki a eurozone afunika kukweza € 500 biliyoni kumapeto kwa chaka chino. Nthawi yomweyo, maboma aku Europe akuyenera kukweza € 1.6 thililiyoni kuti alipirirenso ngongole zomwe zilipo komanso kulipirira ndalama zomwe amawononga. Izi zikuyambitsa zomwe banki wina ananena kuti ndi 'kufa kwakukulu' kwa mpikisano wopeza ndalama pakati pa mabanki ndi maboma.
Panthawi imodzimodziyo, pali kusokonekera kwa chikhulupiliro pakati pa mabanki: m'malo mobwereketsa wina ndi mzake kudzera mumsika wa interbank wholesale (njira yodziwika bwino yamabizinesi atsiku ndi tsiku), akuyika ndalama zawo ku European Central Bank. ECB), ngakhale izi zimapanga chiwongola dzanja chochepa. Posachedwapa, ma depositi akubanki usiku umodzi ndi ECB adakwera kufika pa € 464 biliyoni. Kulandidwa kwa msika wa interbank, ngakhale sikunakhale koopsa ngati kugwa kwa Lehman Brothers mu 2008, ndi chizindikiro chavuto latsopano.
Kubwereketsa mabanki kumabizinesi kwatsika kwambiri, osati mkati mwa eurozone koma padziko lonse lapansi. Mwachitsanzo, ndege zina za ku Asia posachedwapa zavutika kupeza ngongole zogulira ndege zatsopano.
M'nthawi yabwino, mabanki amakweza ndalama zatsopano popereka magawo ambiri. Koma izi zikuchulukirachulukira chifukwa ma sheya aku banki atsika kwambiri, kuwonetsa vuto lomwe likukula kubanki. M'malo mwake, mabanki akhala akugulitsa katundu, monga mabungwe akunja (ambiri mwa iwo akulandidwa pamitengo yotsika mtengo ndi mabanki aku US, omwe adabwezeredwa ndi ndalama za okhometsa msonkho pansi pa pulogalamu ya Tarp). Akuti mabanki a eurozone ayesa kugulitsa zinthu pafupifupi $3 thililiyoni pa chaka chamawa kapena kupitilira apo kuti akweze ndalama zowonjezera.
Posachedwapa kunamveka kuti banki yaikulu ya ku Germany, Commerzbank (yomwe kale inali 25% ya boma la Germany chifukwa cha kupulumutsidwa ku 2009), idzakakamizika kubwereranso kachiwiri. Mavuto a Commerzbank amadza chifukwa cha kutayika kwa ma bond aboma aku Greece. M'mbuyomu, banki yaku Belgian-French, Dexia, idakakamizika mu Okutobala kufunafuna thandizo la boma kuti isagwe. Katswiri wina wa zachuma ku Belgium anati: “Njira zamabanki n’zosalimba kwambiri. Kaya zidzabweretsa zochitika zochititsa chidwi monga kugwa kapena kupititsa patsogolo dziko ndizovuta kunena. Sindinganene chilichonse ”.
Udindo wa ECB
MARIO DRAGHI, Mtsogoleri watsopano wa ECB, watsimikizira kukhala wosinthika kuposa omwe adamutsogolera, a Jean-Claude Trichet. Ndi chidwi pafupifupi zaumulungu, Trichet anatsutsa ECB kukhala ngati 'wobwereketsa womaliza' ku maboma a eurozone. Izi zimachokera ku chikhulupiliro chakuti kukwera kwa mitengo - ngakhale hyper-inflation - ndi chiwopsezo choyandikira - osati kukula kochepa komanso kusasunthika kosatha. Akukhulupirira, monga Merkel, kuti vuto la ngongole liyenera kuthetsedwa ndi njira zochepetsera m'malo mongobweza ngongole. Ngakhale pansi pa Trichet, komabe, ECB idalimbikitsa maboma 'ozungulira' (Greece, Portugal, ndi zina) pogula ma bond pamsika wachiwiri. Anakakamizikanso kuvomereza kugula kochepa kwa ma bond aku Italy ndi Spanish kuti athetse vuto lalikulu m'misika yangongole.
Pansi pa Draghi, kugula kwa mgwirizano wa Italy ndi Spanish ndi ECB kwakula kwambiri. Komabe, njira yayikulu ya Draghi yakhala kukweza kwambiri ngongole kumabanki aku Europe. Iyi ndi njira yakumbuyo yolimbikitsira maboma omwe ali ndi ngongole. Mabanki amatha kubwereka ku ECB pafupifupi zopanda malire kwa zaka zitatu, pa chiwongoladzanja cha 1%, pamaziko a chikole chambiri (kuphatikizapo zomangira za boma za Greece, Italy, Spain, ndi zina).
Izi zapereka chilimbikitso kwa mabanki kuti agule ma bondi aboma kuti awagwiritse ntchito ngati chikole cha ngongole za ECB. Nthawi zina, mabanki agwiritsa ntchito ndalama zotsika mtengozi kuti agwiritse ntchito ndalama zambiri za boma, ndikubwezera 5-7%. Iyi ndi njira yowopsa, ku ECB (yomwe ikuwonjezera kuchuluka kwa ma bond aboma) ndi mabanki omwe akukhudzidwa. Kusokonekera kwa maboma angapo a eurozone kungayambitse vuto lakubanki, pafupifupi mozama kwambiri kuposa vuto la 2008/09. Ichi ndichifukwa chake mabanki ena ndi mabungwe azachuma akutsatira ndondomeko yosamala kwambiri, mwachitsanzo, kugula ma bond a boma la Germany - ngakhale pamene, kwa nthawi yoyamba, akupereka chiwongoladzanja choipa!
Msonkhano wina
NDI MSONKHANO WATSOPANO wayandikira (Januware 30), Merkel akunena kuti 'kupita patsogolo' kwachitika kuyambira pamsonkhano womaliza. Koma izi sizikuwonekeratu. Msonkhano wa Januwale uyenera kutsimikizira 'mgwirizano' (kwenikweni, mitu yambiri ndi malonjezano ambiri) pakati pa maboma 26 a EU omwe adavomereza (ndi David Cameron akugwiritsa ntchito veto yaku Britain). Komabe, pangano lomwe limapereka udindo walamulo kwa maboma a EU kuti azilinganiza bajeti zawo (zosamveka zachuma) lidzayambitsa chitsutso chachikulu mu EU yonse. Komanso, n'zovuta kukhulupirira kuti maboma a EU adzatha kugwirizana pazikhalidwe zatsopano, makamaka pankhani ya udindo wa Khoti Lachilungamo la ku Ulaya pokhazikitsa malamulo ndi funso la zilango. Pakhala pali mkangano pakati pa Merkel ndi Sarkozy pankhaniyi (Sarkozy amakonda ulamuliro wosinthika kwambiri kuposa Merkel).
Merkel akulimbikitsanso kuti maboma a EU afulumizitse kukhazikitsidwa kwa ndalama zopulumutsira za eurozone biliyoni 500, European Stability Mechanism. Koma pakadali pano, palibe mgwirizano pazopereka zenizeni zomwe maboma a eurozone angapereke. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, EFSF yanthawi yochepa (European Financial Stability Fund) ikuwoneka kuti yasiyidwa kwambiri. Yatsala ndi € 450 biliyoni yokha, palibenso yokwanira kubweza maboma akuluakulu a eurozone monga Spain kapena Italy. Koma yalephera kubwereka ndalama zowonjezera kuti iwonjezere mphamvu zake zochitirapo kanthu.
M'malo mwake, EU yatembenukira ku IMF. Izi pakadali pano zili ndi pafupifupi $290 biliyoni, ndipo akuti maboma a EU apereke ndalama zina zokwana $200 biliyoni ndipo maboma omwe si a ku Europe awonjezere $200 biliyoni. Apanso, sikutsimikizika kuti maboma abwera. Mwachitsanzo, Cameron adzakhala ndi zovuta zazikulu ndi otsutsa a eurosceptic mu chipani cha Tory ngati anganene kuti Britain ipereke thandizo ku IMF - zomwe zingawoneke ngati njira yachindunji yothandizira maboma a eurozone.
Maboma a US ndi Asia awonetsanso kuti sakufuna kuthandizira kuwonjezereka kwa ndalama za IMF. Adafunsa momveka bwino chifukwa chake mayiko azachuma aku Europe, monga Germany ndi Netherlands, sakuyenera kupereka zambiri. Atsogoleri a capitalist aku Germany amalimbikira kufuna kuti chuma chofooka chichepetse zofooka zawo, koma zoperewerazi ndi zofanana ndi zomwe zatsala m'maiko ngati Germany, ndipo sizingachotsedwe popanda Germany, Netherlands, ndi zina zotere, zomwe zimatengera zinthu zambiri zochokera kumayiko ofooka.
Chabwino, msonkhano wa yuro mu Januwale ukhala msonkhano wina wosokoneza, ndi njira zina zothanirana ndi zovuta zomwe zachitika posachedwa koma osathetsa mavutowo.
Vuto la ngongole za eurozone likukulirakulira chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa kukula. Miyezo yochepetsetsa yokhazikitsidwa ndi boma la eurozone ndi straitjacket ya yuro ikuipiraipira. Zambiri zaposachedwa zikuwonetsa kuti eurozone idatsikanso m'gawo lomaliza la 2011, ndipo tsopano nthawi yachedwa kuti maboma a eurozone aletse kutsika kwachuma mu theka loyamba la chaka chino. Funso lokhalo ndilakuti, zikhala zovuta bwanji?
Merkel ndi Sarkozy akuti akhazikitsa ndondomeko yakukula pamsonkhanowu. Koma kodi angalimbikitse bwanji kukula ndi kuchepetsa ulova mkati mwa njira zochepetsera ndalama, zomwe pamapeto pake zimapangidwira kukhutiritsa misika yazachuma? Kukula kolimbikitsa kungafune kuti pakhale ndalama zolimbikitsira ndalama pamlingo waukulu - wonyansa kuti apeze ndalama. Monga momwe katswiri wafukufuku wa Deutschbank adalemba mu lipoti laposachedwapa: "Mu msika wamakono, palibe malo ogwiritsira ntchito ndondomeko ya ndalama zowonjezera zamtundu wa Keynesian kuti ziwonjezeke kufunikira m'mayiko omwe ali ndi kukula kochepa - misika sidzangovomereza njira yotereyi". (Nthawi Yowonongeka ya Euro Siili Patali, International Herald Tribune, 10 January)
Bomba la nthawi yachi Greek
ATSOGOLERI a ku Ulaya sanathetsedi vuto la ukapitaliste wa ku Greece, limene lidzaphulika m’nyengo yotsatira. Miyezo yankhanza yachipongwe, kupatula kuyika mikhalidwe yoyipa kwa ogwira ntchito ndi magulu apakati, idapangitsa kugwa kwazaka zinayi, pomwe chuma chikutsika ndi 5% mchaka cha 2011. ndikuchepetsanso, monga kukwera kwa ndalama zamagetsi, boma losakhalitsa pansi pa Lucas Papademos lidalipidwa ndi ndalama zina za € 2012 biliyoni kuchokera pa phukusi loyamba la bail.
Komabe, boma la Greece likufunika mwachangu phukusi lachiwiri la ndalama zokwana € 130 biliyoni kuti lipereke ndalama zogulitsirana ndi omwe ali ndi ma bond. Izi tsopano zakhazikitsidwa pa kumeta tsitsi kwa 50% kwa omwe ali ndi ma bond achi Greek (okwana pafupifupi €200bn), pamaziko opangira ndalama zokwana € 30 biliyoni kwa omwe ali ndi ma bond. Komabe, mgwirizanowu sunagwirizanebe. Pali malipoti a boma omwe akufuna kumeta tsitsi lalikulu kwambiri, ngakhale pamaziko a tsitsi la 50% pali ma bondholders omwe akukana kuvomereza kusinthanitsa.
Ili ndi funso lofunikira kwambiri pamsonkhano wa euro pa 30 Januware. Popanda mgwirizano pa kusinthana kwa ma bond achi Greek, padzakhala chiyembekezo choyandikira cha kusakhazikika, ndi Greece kukakamizidwa kutuluka mu eurozone. Ngakhale ndi mgwirizano, komabe, sizingathetse mavuto a ngongole ku Greece. Kungakhale kukonzanso kwakanthawi komwe kungapereke m'malo ku zovuta zina m'kanthawi kochepa. Kukula kwa ngongole ndizovuta zachuma komanso zosavomerezeka kwa ogwira ntchito ndi anthu apakati.
Kutsika kwachuma ku Greece, ndi kuchepa kwa kufunikira kwa zinthu kuchokera kumayiko aku Europe, kudzakhudza chuma padziko lonse lapansi. Komabe, vuto la ngongole ya eurozone ndi bomba lanthawi yake: kuphulika kungayambitse mavuto ena azachuma padziko lonse lapansi, mwinanso oipitsitsa kuposa 2008/09.
Zoyembekeza zosamveka
CHIFUKWA cha kubwereketsa mabanki ndi mabungwe ena azachuma ndikuchulukitsa zofooka zandalama (chifukwa chakukula pang'onopang'ono komanso kuchepa kwa ndalama zamisonkho) chuma chachikulu chikulemetsedwa ndi ngongole yayikulu. Bungwe la OECD posachedwapa linanena kuti mayiko otsogola a capitalist akuyenera kukweza ngongole zatsopano zokwana madola 10.5 thililiyoni mchaka cha 2012, pafupifupi kuwirikiza kawiri kuposa mu 2005. Kulephera kwa boma pangongole zodziyimira pawokha komanso/kapena kugwa kwa mabanki akulu mosapeweka kungayambitse vuto lakubanki latsopano. , zomwe zingayambitse kuchepa kwakukulu.
Othirira ndemanga ambiri akuyembekeza kuti kuchira ku US kuthandizira kutulutsa dziko lonse lapansi pakugwa kwachuma. Kutsika kwapang'onopang'ono kwa chiwopsezo cha kusowa kwa ntchito (kutsika kuchokera ku 8.7% mpaka 8.5% mu Disembala) kunadzutsa chiyembekezo cha kuchira. Koma zambiri za 'kutukuka' kumeneku kumachitika chifukwa cha anthu omwe amasiya kugwira ntchito. Mu 2011, chuma cha US chinapeza ntchito 1.64 miliyoni, kusintha kwabwino kwambiri pachaka kuyambira 2006, komabe kuperewera kwa ntchito pafupifupi XNUMX miliyoni zomwe zidatayika panthawi yazachuma.
Panthawi imodzimodziyo, kugulitsa kunja kwa US kukukhudzidwa ndi kuchepa kwachuma ku Ulaya. Maperesenti khumi ndi anayi a malonda amakampani a S&P 500 amapita ku Europe. Kutumiza kunja kwakhudzidwanso ndi kukwera kwa mtengo wa dola, pomwe likulu lidasamukira ku US kufunafuna 'malo otetezeka'. Izi zakhudza phindu lamakampani akulu (mugawo lachinayi phindu la S&P 500 latsika kuchokera 17.5% mpaka 7.9%). Izi zitha kupangitsa kuti ndalama zichepe, ndikubweretsanso zovuta pazachuma.
Othirira ndemanga ozama ayamba kuyankhapo za 'Japanisation' ya chuma cha US, kukweza chiyembekezo cha nthawi yayitali yakukula pang'onopang'ono ndi kufooka kwa bizinesi. Kukula kwa 2% komwe kunanenedweratu ku US chaka chino tsopano kukuwoneka kukhala kosangalatsa.
Nthawi yomweyo, pali kuchepa kwakukulu kwakukula ku China, komwe kutha kuchepetsedwa mpaka 8% kapena 7%. Mosakayikira, boma la China lidzalowererapo pofuna kuteteza kugwa kwakukulu. Koma ngati ingathe kubwezeretsanso kukula kwa 9-10%, monga momwe idachitira panthawi yotsika komaliza, ndizokayikitsa. Kuchepetsa kufunikira kwa zinthu zamafakitale, chakudya ndi mphamvu kuchokera ku China, kudzakhalanso ndi vuto ku Brazil, Australia, ndi chuma china chomwe chakula chifukwa cha malonda ndi China.
Chinthu chinanso ndi mtengo wamafuta. Zakhala zikuzungulira pafupifupi $ 100 mbiya, koma kutseka kwa Straits of Hormuz ndi Iran, kapena ngakhale mikangano yayikulu pakati pa Iran ndi US, ikhoza kubweretsa kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa pafupifupi $ 50 - zomwe zingakhudzenso kukula kwapadziko lonse.
'2012 Outlook' yaposachedwa, yochokera ku banki yogulitsa ndalama Morgan Stanley (Global Economic Outlook, 15 December), imawerenga movutikira. Chiyembekezo chake choyambira pakukula kwapadziko lonse mu 2012 ndi 3.5% (poyerekeza ndi pafupifupi 5% kusanagwe kumapeto kwa 2007). Izi zimachokera ku kulosera kwa kuchepa kwachuma ku Ulaya, kukula kofooka koma kwabwino ku US, ndi kukula kwapang'onopang'ono kwa 'misika yomwe ikubwera' (China, Brazil, India, ndi zina). Ikutsutsa mozama za mlandu wa ng'ombe "wololera", womwe ungakweze GDP yapadziko lonse kufika 4.2% mu 2012.
'Chimbalangondo' chake ndi cha kugwa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi, ndikuchepa kwachuma ku US komanso kutsika kwachuma ku Europe. Izi zingachepetse kukula kwa dziko lonse kufika pa 1.9% mu 2012. Komabe, Morgan Stanley akuperekanso 'chimbalangondo chapamwamba': "Simukufuna kudziwa".
"Ngakhale chimbalangondo chathu chingakhalebe ndi chiyembekezo," ikuchenjeza. Ngati maboma a eurozone alephera kuvomerezana pazomwe angachite kuti athetse vuto la eurozone, ndipo ngati bungwe la ECB likana kuwonjezera thandizo lawo ku maboma omwe akusokonekera, "chimbalangondo champhamvu kwambiri chomwe chimaphatikizapo kusakhulupirika kwachinsinsi ndi mabungwe aboma komanso kutha kwa yuro zitha kuchitika" . Morgan Stanley amawona izi ngati chochitika chocheperako, komabe, akuchenjeza kuti zachitika posachedwa. "Kuyika ziwerengero za GDP ndi zizindikiro zina zachuma pazochitika zotere ndizovuta kwambiri. Komabe, Kugwa Kwachuma Kwakukulu komwe kunachitika pambuyo pa kubwezeredwa kwa Lehman kungakhale kocheperako poyerekeza ndi zomwe zidachitika pakutha kwa yuro komanso kulephera kwa banki ndi boma ".
2012 mosakayikira chidzakhala chaka cha zochitika zazikulu ndi zovuta zazikulu za ogwira ntchito.
Lynn Walsh, mkonzi wa Socialism Today, magazini ya mwezi uliwonse ya Socialist Party (CWI England & Wales).
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
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