[Nkhaniyi inamalizidwa pa October 19, 2008.]
Chaka cha 2008 ndi chaka chovuta kwambiri ku US ku Iraq - ndi chaka chomaliza kuti olamulira a Bush ali ndi udindo ndipo Bush ayenera kukwaniritsa zolinga ziwiri zofunika kwambiri pa nkhondo yake asanachoke.
Cholinga choyamba chinali kuperekedwa kwa lamulo la mafuta aku Iraq ndi nyumba yamalamulo ya Iraq pofika kumapeto kwa 2006, koma zikuwonekeratu kuti zaka ziwiri zadutsa kuchokera pamene tsiku lomaliza linatha ndipo lamulo la mafuta lidakalipobe. Lamulo lomwe cholinga chake ndi kutsimikizira kuwongolera kwamakampani amafuta padziko lonse lapansi (IOCs) pazosungira zazikulu zamafuta aku Iraq, zomwe zikuyerekezeredwa posachedwa kukhala pakati pa migolo ya 200 ndi 350 biliyoni ndi wachiwiri kwa Prime Minister waku Iraq ndi akatswiri angapo amafuta aku Iraq ndi mayiko ena. Ndafotokozapo za nkhaniyi m'mawunikidwe anga angapo am'mbuyomu.[1]
Cholinga chachiwiri ndikusaina pangano la "Strategic Framework Agreement" la US-Iraqi lomwe lidzasankhe tsogolo la ntchito ya US ndi zida zankhondo za US ku Iraq. Boma la Bush lidafuna kukwaniritsa izi pofika pa Julayi 31, 2008, monga tafotokozera mu Novembala 26, 2007 "Declaration of Principles" [2] chikalata chosainidwa ndi Bush ndi Al-Maliki.
Mu gawo loyamba la kusanthula uku ndiwunika zonse zomwe zikupezeka pa Strategic Framework Agreement, kenako nditembenukira ku zomwe Iraqi ikuchita, kuyankha kwa US, ndi zomwe zikuvomereza.
I
Chikalata chokhacho chomwe chatulutsidwa mwalamulo chomwe chilipo mpaka pano ndi chikalata cha "Declaration of Principles" cha Novembara 26, 2007.
Zolemba zina zonse za pangano la US/Iraqi zomwe ndaziwona sizinali zovomerezeka komanso zotsatsira za panganoli. Izi zikuphatikiza zolemba za Marichi 7, 2008 [3] zomwe zidatsitsidwa kwa Guardian; zolemba za misonkhano ya May 8, 2008 m’Chiarabu; ndi zolemba za Ogasiti 6, 2008 [4] zomwe zidatsitsidwa ku nyuzipepala yachiarabu (Middle East).
Nthawi zambiri, zolembedwa zomwe zidawukhira za panganoli pamodzi ndi zina zambiri zomwe zidasindikizidwa mu Chiarabu ndi Chingerezi zimafanana pa mfundo zazikuluzikulu izi:
1. Palibe nthawi yochotsa asitikali onse aku US ku Iraq:
Palibe ndondomeko yoyika ndondomeko yokhazikika yochotseratu asilikali onse a US ndi kutseka mabwalo awo onse ankhondo ndi ndege ku Iraq.
Ndime 26 yolembedwa mu Ogasiti ikungonena za mwayi woti asitikali aku US atuluke m'misewu ya mizinda ndi mizinda yaku Iraq pofika pa June 30, 2009. zomwe zikuyembekezeka kukhala kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2011, monga tanena kangapo pa TV ndi Prime Minister waku Iraq ndi akuluakulu ena aboma la Iraq.
Koma palibe zonena za nthawi iliyonse yochotsa asitikali onse aku US komanso kutseka kwa maziko onse aku US ku Iraq kuphatikiza mabwalo akuluakulu asanu amlengalenga omwe US yakhala ikumanga zaka zisanu zapitazi. Izi zikusonyeza kuti akuluakulu a boma la US alibe cholinga chochotsa asilikali awo onse kapena kutseka magulu awo onse ankhondo ku Iraq nthawi ina iliyonse mtsogolomu.
2. Kuwongolera ndege zaku Iraq:
Ndime 9/4 ikuwonetsa kuti dziko la US likhoza kulamulira ndege zonse zaku Iraq kwa nthawi yosatha. Magawo ena a nkhaniyi monga 9/2 ndi 9/5 akuwonetsa kuti boma la Iraq silidzakhala ndi ulamuliro pakuyenda kwa ndege zankhondo zaku US ndi anthu wamba ku Iraq.
3. Zochita zankhondo zaku US ku Iraq:
Ndime 4 ya zomwe zalembedwa mu Ogasiti ikupereka tsatanetsatane wokhudza cholinga cha US kuti apitilize kutenga nawo gawo pankhondo mtsogolomo, osati poletsa ziwopsezo zamkati, komanso ziwopsezo zakunja, monga gawo loyamba la nkhaniyi likunenera.
Kuphatikiza apo, nkhani ya 4/1 yaganiza kuti boma la Iraq mosakayikira lidzapempha kuti asitikali aku US alowe nawo m'mitundu yonse yankhondo kuti asunge chitetezo.
Komabe, ziwonetsero zodziwikiratu kuti US ikhala ndi dzanja laulere pantchito zake zankhondo ndipo sadzakhala ndi mlandu wopha anthu wamba waku Iraq mtsogolomo zafotokozedwa ndi gawo 4/5 lomwe limati, "Palibe chilichonse mumgwirizanowu chomwe chimalepheretsa mbali zonse za ufulu wodziteteza."
Zaka zisanu ndi theka zapitazi za nkhondo zachindunji za US ku Iraq zachititsa kuti anthu masauzande ambiri a ku Iraq aphedwe, ndipo ambiri mwa kuphedwa kumeneku ku US anali otetezedwa ndi zomwe zimatchedwa "ufulu wodziteteza. "
4. Ulamuliro Walamulo pa Asitikali ankhondo aku US ndi anthu wamba ku Iraq:
Ndime 12/1 imati "United States ili ndi ulamuliro wokhawokha pazankhondo zaku US komanso anthu wamba mkati ndi kunja kwa kukhazikitsa ndi madera omwe adagwirizana." Kuphatikiza apo, gawo la 12/6 la nkhaniyi likuti "Amembala onse ankhondo aku US kapena anthu wamba omwe amamangidwa ndi akuluakulu aku Iraq ayenera kuperekedwa nthawi yomweyo kwa akuluakulu ankhondo aku US." [Dziwani: Matembenuzidwe a Chingelezi m’mawu ake [4] amati “anthu wamba,” koma Chiarabu chimanena za anthu wamba.]
Chikalatachi chikuwonetsa kuti padakali kusagwirizana kwa mbali yaku Iraq pankhaniyi, koma zosintha zilizonse zomwe boma la Iraqi lachita ndi zazing'ono. Zinthu zonsezi mosakayikira zikuwonetsa kuti US idzakhala ndi ulamuliro wokhawokha pazankhondo zaku US ndi anthu wamba komanso kuti Iraq sikhala ndi ulamuliro uliwonse pa iwo ndipo sadzakhala otetezedwa ku malamulo aku Iraq.
5. Zofuna kulipira anthu wamba omwe adaphedwa ndi asitikali aku US:
Ndime 21/1 imati, "Kupatulapo madandaulo okhudzana ndi mgwirizano, mbali zonse ziwiri zimasiya ufulu wawo wopempha chipukuta misozi chifukwa chakuvulazidwa kulikonse, kutayika, kapena kuwonongeka kwa katundu, kapena kupempha chipukuta misozi chifukwa chovulala kapena kufa kwa mamembala ankhondo kapena anthu wamba kumbali zonse ziwiri zomwe zikuchitika panthawiyo. ntchito zawo zovomerezeka."
Palibe mawu omwe angakhale omveka bwino; boma la Iraq silingapemphe chipukuta misozi m'malo mwa nzika zawo, ngakhale masauzande a anthu wamba aku Iraq ataphedwa ndi asitikali aku US.
6. Kumangidwa kwa anthu wamba aku Iraq ndi asitikali aku US:
Ndime 22 ikufotokoza za nkhaniyi. Zikuwoneka kuti mbali ya Iraq yapambana pakusintha pang'ono kwa US pankhaniyi poyerekeza ndi zomwe zidasindikizidwa ndi manyuzipepala angapo olemekezeka padziko lonse lapansi miyezi ingapo yapitayo.
Komabe, mgwirizanowu umalolabe asitikali aku US kuti amange nzika iliyonse yaku Iraq ndikumufunsa mafunso kwa maola osachepera a 24 ngati sichoncho monga momwe zasonyezedwera mu Article 22/2 yomwe imati, "Anthu onse omwe amangidwa ndi asitikali aku US akuyenera kukhala okonzeka kuperekedwa. kwa akuluakulu aku Iraq mkati mwa maola 24. " Ndizotheka kuti zitha kutenga zaka zisanu kapena kuposerapo kuti "akonzekere" nzika iliyonse yaku Iraqi kuti iperekedwe kwa olamulira aku Iraq ngati akana kugwirizana ndi omwe amamufunsa mafunso ku US. Zowonadi, izi zidachitika ndi milandu yambiri mzaka zisanu zapitazi za ntchitoyo. Apo ayi, n’chifukwa chiyani anaikapo mawu oti “konzekerani” m’nkhani ino?
7. Kumasulidwa kwa asitikali onse ankhondo aku US ndi anthu wamba pazowongolera zonse za boma la Iraqi:
Ndime 14 imamasula asitikali onse aku US ndi anthu wamba ku "malamulo olowa ndikutuluka aku Iraq," motero amawaletsa kuti asafufuzidwe ndi alonda akumalire aku Iraq pamalire aliwonse ovomerezeka aku Iraq kapena kukanidwa kutuluka / kulowa bola akuwonetsa ma ID awo aku US. Izi zipangitsa Iraq kukhala malo ozembetsa mankhwala kwa membala aliyense wa asitikali aku US omwe akugwira ntchito ku Afghanistan.
Ndime 15 ndi 16 zimalola asitikali aku US ndi makontrakitala awo kutumiza ku Iraq katundu aliyense wakunja ndi kutumiza katundu waku Iraq popanda kufufuzidwa komanso osalipira msonkho. Ndili wotsimikiza kuti asitikali ankhondo aku US ndi anthu wamba ndi makontrakitala sadzakhala ndi mwayi womwewo akalowa kapena kutuluka m'malire a US.
8. Ulamuliro waku Iraq pa makontrakitala aku US:
Zolemba za mu Ogasiti zikuwonetsa kupambana kwa Iraq pakusintha momwe dziko la US likuyendera pankhaniyi ngati tisiyanitsa ndi zomwe zidalembedwa m'mbuyomu kapena zomwe zidanenedwa ndi manyuzipepala angapo apadziko lonse miyezi ingapo yapitayo.
Ndime 12/3 ya kulembedwa kwa Ogasiti ikunena kuti, "Iraq ili ndi ulamuliro pamakampani aku US ndi antchito awo akaphwanya malamulo aku Iraq."
9. Paziboliboli zaku Iraq pansi pa Mutu VII wa UN Charter and Security Council Resolutions 1790 ndi 661 (August 1990):
Ndizodabwitsa kuti zolemba za Ogasiti sizikunena za nkhaniyi, mosiyana ndi zomwe zidalembedwa pa Marichi 7, 2008.
Pankhani yofunika kwambiri iyi ndikufuna kuwunikira mfundo ziwiri:
Choyamba, Security Council Resolution 661 idayikidwa ku Iraq mu Ogasiti 1990 kutsatira ulamuliro wa Baathist ku Kuwait. Komabe, ulamuliro wa Baathist wa ku Iraq ku Kuwait unatha mwalamulo pamene boma linasaina kugonja ku "Safwan" pa February 26, 1991. zikuwonekeratu kuti chiwopsezo choterechi chinatha pa Epulo 9, 2003, pomwe kulanda motsogozedwa ndi US / UK ku Iraq sikunawononge boma la Baathist ndi gulu lake lankhondo, komanso zida zonse zadziko komanso zachuma?
Mfundo yachiwiri ndi yomwe idanenedwa mu "Declaration of Principles Document" yomwe idasainidwa pa Novembara 26, 2007, ndi Iraq ndi US.
Chikalatacho chimati, "Boma la Iraqi ... lidzapempha kuwonjezera mphamvu za Multinational Force ku Iraq pansi pa Mutu VII wa United Nations Charter kwa nthawi yomaliza. . "
Kuchokera m'mawu a mawuwa zikuwonekeratu kuti popeza boma la Iraq linali litapempha kale mu December 2007 kwa nthawi yomaliza kuwonjezera udindo wa Multinational Force ku Iraq, zisankho zonse 661 ndi 1790 pamodzi ndi malamulo a Mutu VII zidzatha. pofika pa Disembala 31, 2008, ndiye kuti nkhaniyi ilibe chochita ndi kusaina pangano latsopano pakati pa US ndi Iraq.
II
Mu gawo lachiwiri la kusanthula uku ndiwona momwe zipani za ndale za Iraq ndi mayendedwe adayankhira komanso kuunika kwawo panganoli.
Osewera ofunikira kwambiri aku Iraq ndi zipani zandale komanso mayendedwe ochokera m'magawo atatu akulu omwe ali mbali ya ndale za Iraq masiku ano.
Gulu lalikulu loyamba limapangidwa ndi maphwando onse omwe ali mbali ya boma la Iraqi ndipo ndi zigawo za "Front of the moderates" zomwe zidakhazikitsidwa mu Ogasiti 2007.
Amaphatikizapo zipani ziwiri za Kurdish (KDP & PUK), magulu awiri akuluakulu a Shiite - "Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC)" ndi chipani cha Dawa (phiko la Al-Maliki) ndi magulu a Sunni, Accord Front/Islamic. phwando.
Zipani zonse za ndale ndi mayendedwe a magulu atatu omwe akukhudzidwa ndi izi komanso gawo lina la boma ali okonzeka kuvomereza mosiyanasiyana mtundu wina wa pangano lokhazikitsidwa ndi US. Pali aphungu ena akuchipani cha Accord komanso chipani cha Dawa omwe akutsutsa mgwirizanowu, koma amakhala ngati ochepa m'zipani zawo ndipo sakuyimira kuwopseza zolingazo.
Maphwando onse omwe ali mgululi ndi omwe adasaina "Declaration of Principles" pa Novembara 26, 2007, ndi Al-Maliki.
Kuphatikiza pa maphwando omwe ali pamwambawa, tili ndi magulu angapo a MP omwe anali kapena akadali mbali ya "Iraqi National Accord" yomwe imatsogoleredwa ndi Dr. Ayad Allawi, Baathist wakale yemwe adasankhidwa kukhala nduna yaikulu ndi Paul Bremer, ndipo amachirikiza kwambiri mgwirizanowu.
Gulu lachiwiri liri ndi gulu la Sadr - lomwe ndilo gulu lokhalo lamphamvu mkati mwa ndondomeko ya ndale yomwe imakana pangano lonse - komanso chipani cha Fadila, chomwe sichikuvomereza momwe chikuyimira.
Gulu lachitatu ndi gulu lankhondo la Sunni lomwe langopangidwa kumene komanso lothandizidwa ndi US ku "Al-Sahwa" kapena "Kudzutsidwa" komwe kuli ndi zida zopitilira 120,000 zomwe zili ndi zida ndikulipidwa mwachindunji ndi asitikali aku US. Mbiri ya kupangidwa kwa magulu ankhondo a Al-Sahwa ndi yayitali kwambiri komanso kunja kwa kafukufukuyu. Komabe, chifukwa akukhala chipani chogwira ntchito pazandale za Iraq, palibe katswiri yemwe anganyalanyaze kukhalapo kwawo komanso udindo wawo. Ndizodziwikiratu, kuti akatswiri ambiri aku Iraq otsutsa ntchito amapewa ngakhale kutchula udindo wawo komanso kufunikira kwawo. Mwachidule, "Kugalamuka" kumaphatikizapo magulu angapo omwe kwa zaka zinayi zoyambirira za ntchitoyo anali kutsutsana ndi ndondomeko ya ndale, koma tsopano akuphatikizidwamo. Kupangidwa kwa magulu ankhondo a Awakening kudatsata zokambirana zachinsinsi zomwe zidachitika kuyambira 2006, pakati pa olamulira aku US ku Iraq ndi magulu angapo a Sunni omwe anali mbali ya magulu ampatuko a Al Qaida kapena Baathist ndipo adachita nawo zigawenga zopha anthu aku Iraq. anthu wamba. Palinso magulu ena a Sunni mkati mwa "Al-Sahwa" omwe kale adamenyana ndi asilikali a US pakati ndi kumadzulo kwa Iraq ndipo adakana kulandidwa kwa US. Kupangidwa kwa "Kudzutsidwa" ndi chimodzi mwazopambana zazikulu zaulamuliro wa US mchaka chatha. Atsogoleri ndi olankhulira maguluwa akuchirikiza mgwirizanowu poyankhulana ndi anthu ndi manyuzipepala achiarabu ndi ma TV.
Palinso magulu ena andale omwe akutsutsa mgwirizanowu monga gulu lachi Sunni "Association of Muslim". Akatswiri ku Iraq" (AMSI) omwe ali kunja kwa ndale choncho ali ndi udindo wochepa komanso kagulu kakang'ono mkati mwa chipani cha Dawa chotsogoleredwa ndi Pulezidenti wakale wa Iraq, Dr. Al-Jafari. Kuphatikiza pa maguluwa pali magulu angapo osadziwika bwino mkati mwa nyumba yamalamulo ya federal komanso kunja kwake omwe akutsutsanso mgwirizanowu.
III
M'gawo lomalizali ndiwona njira zoyendetsera US, kuphatikiza zomwe zidachitika ku Iraqi komanso zakunja zomwe zidapangitsa kuti panganoli likhazikike.
M’chigawo choyamba cha 2008, zinaonekeratu kuti zipani zonse za ndale ndi magulu amene amapanga boma ndipo amene pakati pawo ali ndi ambiri mu nyumba yamalamulo ya federal anali okonzeka kuvomereza “mgwirizano wamtundu wina” womwe unaperekedwa kwa anthu osachepera. mwa iwo ndi olamulira a US.
Kusaina kwa "Declaration of Principles" pa November 26, 2007, ndi maboma a US ndi Iraq kunali sitepe yoyamba pa ndondomekoyi, ndipo chinali chisonyezero chowonekera kwa olamulira a US ponena za njira yopitira.
Oyang'anira US adazindikira kuyambira pakati pa 2007 kuti amayenera kuyendetsa kusintha kwa mfundo zomwe ndale zidakhazikitsidwa ngati akufuna kuchita bwino pamalingaliro awo.
Kusintha kwaukadaulo kumeneku kunali pazandale zingapo. Choyamba chinali kukankhira kuchotsedwa kwa ndale za zipani zonse zomwe zinali kale mbali ya ndondomekoyi koma zotsutsana ndi ntchito ya US, monga gulu la Sadr. Chachiwiri chinali kutenga nawo mbali pakupanga magulu atsopano a "Awakening" omwe US adathandizira kupanga ndi omwe amathandizira kupitiriza ntchito ya US. Izi zinapangitsa kuti kuyitanidwa kwa zisankho zoyambirira za maboma ang'onoang'ono, kuti abweretse magulu a "Awakening" pamtima pa ndondomeko ya ndale komanso panthawi imodzimodziyo kugawaniza kutsogolo kwa Sunni powonetsa "Kugalamuka" ngati otsutsana enieni ku chipani cha Islamic.
Chachitatu chinali kukulirakulira kwa mabodza aku US okhudzana ndi ziwopsezo zaku Iran ku Iraq. Njira iyi inali gawo la US ikuchita motsutsana ndi aku Iran, osati ku Iraq kokha, koma m'dera lonselo, popeza Iran idakhala chiwopsezo chenicheni pamalingaliro a US ndi Israeli, osati ku Gulf kokha komanso ku Middle East. . Kuphatikiza apo, izi zitha kulola US kusokoneza kuzindikira kwa gulu la Sunni ku Iraq kutali ndi chiwopsezo chenicheni chomwe akukumana nacho ku panganoli, kupita pachiwopsezo chabodza kuchokera ku "chiwopsezo cha Iran," motero kugwiritsa ntchito chidwi cha nkhani yampatukoyi.
Pofika mwezi wa Marichi 2008, olamulira a US adasamukira kumagawo omaliza a dongosololi pokhazikitsa ziwopsezo zankhondo pagulu la Sadr, komanso pang'ono, pa chipani cha Fadila, kuti aletse chipani cha Fadila ndikuchotsa ma Sadr. ndondomeko ya ndale. Anafunika kuthetsa gulu la Sadr chifukwa anali gulu lokhalo la ndale lamphamvu mkati mwa ndale lomwe linakana zolinga zonse za olamulira a US.
Nthawi yomweyo adatumiza Dick Cheney ku Iraq ndi zolemba zake za Marichi 7 kuti akakamize boma la Iraq mwachangu pomwe ntchito zankhondo (zomwe zidakonzedweratu motsutsana ndi a Sadrist) zinali pafupi kuyamba komanso boma la Maliki. anali kufunafuna thandizo lankhondo lochulukirapo kuchokera ku maulamuliro aku US/UK.
Adapereka lingaliro kwa zipani za Iraq m'boma kuti izi si pangano koma "mgwirizano wa mphamvu" ndiye chifukwa chake palibe chifukwa choti zipite ku nyumba yamalamulo yaku Iraq kuti ivomerezedwe, chifukwa zonse zomwe zingafune ndi. kuvomerezedwa ndi nduna ya Iraq ndi Purezidenti wa US.
Koma pamene kukula kwa kuuma kwa zofuna za US mkati mwa ndondomeko ya Marichi kudawululidwa, zidadabwitsa andale komanso owonera ambiri osati ku Iraq kokha komanso kudera lonse la Gulf ndi Middle East. Zolembazo zinawukhira mu April mkati mwa Iraq ndipo zinafika kwa atsogoleri achipembedzo a Shiite ku Najaf ndi kunja kwa Iraq ku boma la Iranian ndi ku Ulaya kwa Guardian yomwe adasindikiza pa April 8, 2008. [3]
Posakhalitsa, chidziwitso chamgwirizanowu chinayamba kufalikira kumadera ambiri aku Iraq ndipo kutsutsa kwa panganoli kudayamba kukula.
IV
Ndiye ndi zinthu ziti zazikulu zomwe zathandizira kuti panganoli likhazikike kwa miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yapitayi ndipo zikupitilirabe mpaka pano?
Choyamba chinali kutsutsa kwa atsogoleri achipembedzo achi Shiite "Marja'iya" ku Najaf ku zofuna za US mu ndondomeko ya March 7.
Zambiri zomwe zidatsikira ku Iraq ndi Arab media kuphatikiza zomwe zidasindikizidwa mu nyuzipepala yachiarabu "Al-Hayat" pa Seputembara 29, 2008, ndi ma TV angapo achi Arabu adawonetsa kuti Shiite Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani adatsutsa US. amafuna ndikuumiriza kuti mgwirizano uliwonse ndi dziko lakunja, choyamba, ukhale ndi chivomerezo cha magulu onse a anthu aku Iraq, ndipo chachiwiri, uyenera kuperekedwa ku nyumba yamalamulo kuti ivomerezedwe malinga ndi malamulo a Iraq, ndipo, potsiriza, adapita mpaka kuyitanira referendum pa izo. Zina zomwe zidasiyidwa zidati Al-Sistani anakana kulandira buku la Marichi kuchokera kwa Muwaffaq Al-Rubai, wamkulu wa "Iraqi National Security Council" pomwe omaliza adamuyendera mu Epulo, ndipo Al-Sistani adakana kukambirana naye. iye mfundo zilizonse za mgwirizano. Zomwe zidatulutsidwa zidatinso Al-Sistani adanyoza Prime Minister wa Shiite Al-Maliki ndi Wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti wa Shiite Adil Mahdi kutsatira kuthandizira kwawo. Zonse zomwe zatsitsidwa pamwambapa zidadziwika kwa anthu ku Iraq ndipo zadziwika kuti ndizowona pamawayilesi angapo achi Arab TV kuphatikiza aku Iran "Al-Alam" ndi Al Jazeera.
Kuyimirira kwa Al-Sistani pa mgwirizanowu kunapereka thandizo lachindunji kwa gulu la Sadrist lomwe lidayitanitsa ziwonetsero za anthu Lachisanu lililonse m'mizinda ingapo ya Iraq ndi matauni otsutsana ndi mgwirizanowu, ndikuwonjezera thandizo la gululi. Komanso mabungwe ambiri achi Shiite aku Iraq pamodzi ndi mabungwe ena omwe sia Shiite adayamba kukonza misonkhano yayikulu yotsutsana ndi panganoli.
Zomwe Al-Sistani adachita zinali zopweteka kwambiri kwa zipani zonse za Shiite m'boma - "SIIC" ndi Dawa - komanso dongosolo la US lonse. Izi ndizomveka popeza onse a "SIIC" ndi chipani cha Dawa ndi magulu achipembedzo achi Shiite ndi mabungwe achipembedzo choncho sangathe kusunga chithandizo chawo chochepa cha anthu ngati akuwoneka kuti akutsutsana ndi chifuniro cha Shiite Marja'iya. Nthawi zonse ankakhulupirira kuti ali ndi chithandizo cha Shiite Marja'iya pa zomwe anali kuchita, ndipo kuchita mosiyana kungakhale kudzipha kwa ndale kwa iwo. Koma kumbali ina, kuti onse awiri akane kukakamizidwa ndi US kuti avomereze mgwirizanowu ndi udindo womwe sangachiritse ngati akufuna kukhalabe pampando.
Ponena za olamulira a US, amazindikira kuyambira zaka zisanu zapitazi kuti sipadzakhala mgwirizano wa US / Iraq popanda chipani cha Shiite "SIIC" ndi Dawa.
Chinthu chachiwiri chomwe chikuvomereza mgwirizanowu ndi Iran. Pali chisokonezo chachikulu chozungulira ndondomeko za Iran m'derali komanso ku Iraq.
Choyamba tiyenera kuzindikira kuti Iran ili ngati dziko lina lililonse: chofunika kwambiri ndicho chitetezo cha dziko. Iran yazunguliridwa lero ndi asitikali aku US kuchokera kumbali zonse, kotero kuwopseza kwa US ku Iran ndi zenizeni.
Kuti timvetse mfundo za Iran ku Iraq, choyamba tiyenera kupenda mwachidule zofuna zomwe zimapanga ndondomeko zawo, popeza Iran ndi dziko lomwe lili ndi bungwe lopanga ndondomeko. Iran ndi dziko lalikulu kwambiri komanso lamphamvu kwambiri m'mphepete mwa nyanja ya Arabian/Persian. Kuyambira kupambana kwa chisinthiko cha Chisilamu mu 1979, Iran nthawi zonse idawona US ngati "Satana Wamkulu" ndi Israeli ngati mdani wake wamkulu ku Middle East. Iran idapanga mfundo zake zonse kutengera malingaliro awa. Maboma onse aku US ndi maboma a Israeli awona kusintha kwa Iran ngati mdani wawo wamkulu komanso cholepheretsa chachikulu pamalingaliro awo.
Kotero sitiyenera kudabwa kuona kuti bungwe lonse la ndale la Irani kuchokera pamwamba mpaka pansi likutsutsa mwamphamvu ndondomeko ya US yokakamiza mgwirizano wawo kwa anthu aku Iraq. Iran ikuzindikira kuti ngati US idakwanitsa kukhazikitsa zida zankhondo zokhazikika ku Iraq, monga momwe pangano la mgwirizano likuwonekera, ndiye kuti izi zitha kukhala pachiwopsezo chachikulu pachitetezo cha dziko lawo.
Chiyambireni kutulutsidwa kwa dongosolo la Marichi, Iran yakwanitsa kupanga kampeni yopambana kwambiri yolimbana ndi mgwirizanowu makamaka mu Chiarabu pomwe imafikira zigawo zonse za anthu aku Iraq, popeza ma Iraqi omwe amatsutsa panganoli alibe kuthekera kofikira pawailesi yakanema. momwe ma TV aku Iranian Arab TV angachite. Palibe kukayikira kuti izi zikuthandiza zipani zonse za ndale za Iraq ndi magulu omwe akutsutsana ndi mgwirizanowu osati ma Shiite okha. Ndizothekanso kuti aku Iran akakamiza kwambiri mabungwe andale omwe ali ndi ubale kuti atsutse mgwirizanowu. Koma kodi zonsezi siziri mu chidwi cha ma Iraqi mosasamala kanthu za kusiyana kotani pakati pa ena a ife tingakhale ndi ndondomeko zina zaku Iran?
Pomaliza unyinji wa anthu achiarabu a Sunni aku Iraq ali ndi mbiri yakuzama ya Arabu yautundu zomwe zidabweretsa vuto lalikulu kwa atsogoleri a zipani za Sunni m'boma. Ngakhale atsogoleriwa akufuna kuvomereza mgwirizanowu kuti akondweretse akuluakulu a US ndikukhalabe pampando, komano iwo sangatulukire poyera ndikulengeza kuti akuvomereza. Kotero amapatutsa chidwi cha Sunni wamba pokweza mantha awo amgulu kuchokera ku chikoka cha Iran ku Iraq. Mothandizidwa ndi mabodza otsutsana ndi Irani aku US komanso ndalama zambiri za Saudi, atsogoleri ena a Sunni amalankhula momasuka za "ntchito ya Iran" ku Iraq, ndipo ena afika ponena kuti "ntchito ya Irani" ku Iraq ndi. zowopsa kuposa pangano la US. Mawu otere amamveka masiku ano pamawayilesi angapo a TV achiarabu omwe amathandizidwa ndi ndalama ku Saudi kuphatikiza ndi Saudi yemwe ali ndi "Al Arabia" ndi Baathist omwe amawongolera "Al Sharqia."
Mawuwo
1. Kuchokera kuunika mfundo zazikulu za zolemba zomwe zidadutsidwa za pangano la US / Iraq, ndizovuta kukhulupirira zonena za olamulira a US ndi boma la Iraq kuti panganoli silingawononge ulamuliro ndi kukhulupirika kwa dera la Iraq.
2. Kuyitanidwa kwa panganoli ndi gawo limodzi la zomwe akuluakulu aboma aku US akufuna kukakamiza boma la Iraq kuti lilowe m'malo mwa chigamulo cha UN Security Council 1790 chomwe chidzatha pokhapokha pa Disembala 31, 2008, kuti chisamukire ku chachitatu. gawo la ntchito yawo ku Iraq.
3. Kupatula zipani ziwiri zaku Kurdish (KDP & PUK) zomwe zikuoneka kuti zikufunitsitsa kuvomereza panganoli, palibe zipani zina m'boma zomwe ndi Shiite "SIIC" ndi Chipani cha Dawa ndi Sunni Accord Front/Islamic party. ofunitsitsa kusaina pangano loterolo. Iwo, komabe, ali okonzeka kuvomereza chifukwa cha zofooka zawo, mpikisano wamagulu pa gawo lalikulu laulamuliro komanso kulephera kwawo kukana kukakamizidwa ndi US ndi ziwopsezo ngati akufuna kukhalabe pampando. Zifukwa zina ndi chifukwa cha malingaliro ena achipembedzo ndi amipatuko a ena mwa iwo monga tapenda kale mwatsatanetsatane.
Koma panthawi imodzimodziyo zikuwonekeratu kuti palibe m'modzi mwa maphwandowa omwe akufuna kuti awoneke ngati "akutsogolo" kapena "yekha" povomereza mgwirizanowu, chifukwa palibe amene amafuna kuti dzina lake lisindikizidwe m'mbiri ngati wopandukira mtunduwo.
4. Boma la US ndi asitikali aku US ku Iraq akukakamiza kwambiri boma la Iraq kuti lisayine pangano ndi iwo. Manyuzipepala angapo olemekezeka padziko lonse lapansi monga UK Independent [5] adawulula zina mwazowopsa izi, kuphatikiza kuwopseza kuyimitsa $ 50bn m'malo osungira akunja aku Iraq omwe US ikugwira nawo ku US Federal Reserve Bank ku New York. Kukhalapo kwa ziwopsezo zotere zaku US zatsimikiziridwa ndi Purezidenti waku Iraq a Jalal Talabani mu zokambirana zake pa TV ndi wailesi yakanema yaku Iraq mu sabata yoyamba ya Okutobala atabwerako ku US.
5. Kumayambiriro kwa 2008, olamulira aku US adanenetsa kuti panganoli silikufuna kuvomerezedwa ndi nyumba yamalamulo yaku Iraqi komanso kuti zipani za boma la Iraq zidutse gululo kuti zipewe kutsutsidwa ndi anthu. Koma pambuyo pake adazindikira kuti ngati sabweretsa ku nyumba yamalamulo, mgwirizanowu ukhala ngati "mgwirizano wosaloledwa" m'dziko lonse lapansi komanso padziko lonse lapansi chifukwa ungasemphane ndi malamulo a Iraq. Kuonjezera apo adakumana ndi chitsutso chachikulu kuchokera ku mabungwe ambiri a ndale ndi achipembedzo kuphatikizapo gulu la Sadr ndi kuumirira kwa Al-Sistani, kotero iwo analibe njira ina koma kuvomereza kuti abweretse ku nyumba yamalamulo ya federal.
6. Zipani za boma zikuyesa misampha yamitundumitundu kuti panganoli lidutsidwe ndi nyumba yamalamulo ya federal. Iwo ati kuti panganoli livomerezedwe ndi nyumba ya malamulo lingofunika chivomerezo cha 50% ya aphungu omwe adzapite nawo ku Nyumba ya Malamulo. Komabe, malamulo aku Iraq anena mu "Article 61/4" kuti "mapangano onse apadziko lonse lapansi adzafuna chivomerezo cha magawo awiri mwa atatu a aphungu onse anyumba yamalamulo lisanakhale lamulo lazamalamulo," motero boma lidzafunika chivomerezo cha aphungu 184 kuchokera ku Nyumba Yamalamulo. mamembala 275. Koma boma silinafikepo pafupi ndi chiŵerengero chimenecho cha aphungu ngakhale kuti akakhale nawo pamsonkhano uliwonse wa nyumba ya malamulo kwa zaka ziwiri ndi theka zapitazi! Ndiye pali mwayi wotani kuti boma lipeze aphungu ochuluka chotere kuti avomereze mgwirizanowu?
Dr. Al Mashadani, sipikala wa nyumba yamalamulo ya federal (yemwe adasankhidwa ndi Accord front paudindo uwu) adavomereza poyera pa TV pa Okutobala 8 kuti zipani za boma zikukumana ndi vuto ili ndipo sangapange chisankho chilichonse pankhaniyi. , chifukwa adzaonedwa ngati akuphwanya malamulo ngati atero.
7. Chiwonetsero choyamba chachikulu cha anthu ku Baghdad pa Okutobala 17, 2008, chotsutsana ndi pangano la US chikhoza kukhala chosinthira chomaliza pakulimbana kwa anthu aku Iraq kuti aletse boma ndi nyumba yamalamulo kuti ipereke mgwirizano - ngati a Sadrist atha kubweretsa. ambiri mwa magulu a Sunni odana ndi mgwirizano omwe ali pafupi ndi iwo.
Ma Iraqi opitilira XNUMX adachita nawo ziwonetsero zazikuluzikulu komanso zamtenderezi ku Baghdad zomwe zidaperekedwa kwa mamiliyoni aku Iraq ndi wailesi ya TV ya Al Alam. Chiwonetserocho chinakonzedwa ndi gulu la Sadr ndi kutenga nawo mbali kuchokera kumagulu ena a Iraq, kuphatikizapo zigawo za gulu la Sunni ndi oimira achikhristu ndi aku Kurdish. Zolinga zazikulu za chionetserocho zinali kusonyeza kutsutsa kwakukulu kwa anthu pa mgwirizano uliwonse ndi US, kuonjezera kukakamiza boma komanso kukakamiza mamembala ena a nyumba yamalamulo kuti awaletse kuvotera mgwirizanowu. Chiwonetserochi chapambana kusonyeza kuti maganizo a zipani za boma sakuyimira maganizo a anthu ambiri a ku Iraq omwe akufuna kuti aletse pangano la US.
8. Ndiye ndi zosankha ziti zomwe Boma la Iraq likukumana nazo ndi mgwirizanowu?
Pali njira zingapo zomwe Boma la Iraq lingatsatire:
a. Boma likhoza kupitiriza kupereka ndondomeko yomaliza ya mgwirizano (omwe ambiri sanawonepo mpaka pano, kuphatikizapo aphungu ambiri) ku nyumba yamalamulo ya federal ndikupempha chilolezo cha 50% ya mamembala. Izi ndizotheka koma sizikhala zosemphana ndi malamulo chifukwa izi zisemphana ndi nkhani 61/4 ya malamulo oyendetsera dziko lino ndipo sizingavomerezedwe ndi magulu ambiri andale aku Iraq komanso mwina mabungwe ambiri apadziko lonse lapansi. Izi zidzasiya mgwirizanowu komanso boma kukhala pachiwopsezo chachikulu, koma olamulira aku US akonda izi.
b. Boma la Iraq likhoza kukankhira akuluakulu aku US kuti achite mgwirizano kwakanthawi kochepa kapena zomwe zimatchedwa "Bridge Deal" [6] kuti alowe m'malo mwa pangano la nthawi yayitali monga Al Maliki ndi akuluakulu ena aboma adayitanitsa miyezi itatu yapitayo, koma izi sizovomerezeka ndi oyang'anira US.
c. Maboma aku US ndi Iraq, osatha kuvomereza mgwirizanowu kapena kudutsa munyumba yamalamulo ya federal chisankho chapurezidenti waku US chisanachitike kapena kumapeto kwa 2008, atha kubwereranso ku Security Council ndikupempha kuwonjezera kwa UN Resolution 1790 kwa ina. miyezi isanu ndi umodzi kapena chaka. Iyi ndi njira yowonjezereka chifukwa cha kupitilira kwa ndale ku Iraq.
d. Pomaliza, boma la Iraq litha kuyika mgwirizanowu kwa anthu aku Iraq, poyitanitsa referendum pagulu. Njira iyi ikuyitanidwa ndi gawo lalikulu la anthu aku Iraq komanso mabungwe ambiri andale omwe amatsutsa mgwirizanowu. Koma akuluakulu a US adzatsutsa chisankhochi mwamphamvu kwambiri.
Ndemanga:
Munir Chalabi ndi katswiri wa ndale ndi mafuta waku Iraq yemwe amakhala ku UK.
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
Ndalama