United States ndi mnzake waku Britain akukonzekera kukonzanso zida zawo za nyukiliya pomwe akudzudzula Iran chifukwa cha pulogalamu yake yopangira zida zanyukiliya.
Zigawenga za ku Iraq zakhala zofunikira kwambiri kwa atsogoleri a ndale ndi ankhondo ku United States omwe akufuna kutsutsa "nkhondo yowopsya" m'chaka cha 2005. kuthekera kwankhondo motsutsana ndi boma la Tehran pazolinga zake zanyukiliya - kaya ndi United States yokha, kapena ndi mnzake wapamtima. Israel zayamba kukambidwa mozama.
Boma la US likutsutsa kwambiri kulandidwa kulikonse ndi Iran kwa zinthu zomwe zingalole Tehran kupanga zida zake za nyukiliya. Zambiri zazitali gulu la neo-Conservative ku Washington akuwonanso kuti ndizosavomerezeka kuti dziko la Iran lifike pakukhala ndi pulogalamu yamphamvu yanyukiliya yomwe imakhudza kulimbikitsa kwawoko kwa uranium. Mfundo yakuti njira yotereyi ingapangitse kupititsa patsogolo luso la zida zankhondo ikuwoneka ku Washington kuti ndi yoopsa kwambiri kuti musaganizire.
Maganizo amenewa akuphatikizapo kusiya mfundo za mgwirizano woletsa kufalikira kwa nyukiliya (NPT) zomwe zinayamba kugwira ntchito mu 1970. Izi zimathandiza mayiko omwe si a nyukiliya kupanga mphamvu za nyukiliya koma osati zida, International Atomic Energy Agency kuyendera (IAEA) kulipo kuti mupewe kubera. Malingaliro apano aku US ndikuti njira ya NPT siyeneranso kugwira ntchito ku mayiko omwe amawafotokoza kuti ndi "oyipa" kapena gawo la "mbali ya zoyipa". Izi zidathandizira kuwonetsetsa kuti msonkhano wowunikira wa NPT ku New York mu mwina 2005 zapindula zochepa kwambiri.
Limodzi mwavuto lomwe dziko la United States limakumana nalo pakusunga malingaliro a hawkish ndikuti limapezeka m'maiko ambiri padziko lapansi ngati "chita zomwe timanena, osati momwe timachitira". Dziko la United States palokha lili ndi zida zazikulu za zida za nyukiliya, zomwe zawonjezerapo m'zaka zaposachedwa potumiza zida zamtundu watsopano: bomba lolowera padziko lapansi kapena "bunker-buster" lomwe limakumba mobisa asanaphulike, ndikuwononga zida monga. masitolo okwiriridwa kwambiri a mankhwala kapena zida zankhondo (onani "Nkhondo yaku America yaku America," 10 February 2005).
Sikoyenera kuwona United States ngati yokhayo yomwe ili ndi mlandu, chifukwa dziko la Russia lingafune kupanga zida zanyukiliya zatsopano ngati ndalama ziloledwa, kuti France ndi China zikusintha mphamvu zawo zazing'ono za nyukiliya komanso kuti pali mwayi uliwonse kuti Britain m'malo mwake mphamvu ya nyukiliya ya Trident m'zaka zingapo.
Ngakhale zili choncho, zovuta za United States ndi Iran zapangitsa kuti ikhale yotsimikiza kwambiri kusintha mgwirizano wa NPT, womwe makamaka mu mgwirizanowu. Ndime VI (maiko atsopano samapita ku nyukiliya koma, pobwezera, mayiko akale a nyukiliya amasiya pang'onopang'ono zida zawo). Mpaka kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2005, panali malipoti odalirika akuti US ikuyamba kupanga bomba la nyukiliya lophulika, lotchedwa Wamphamvu Nuclear Earth Penetrator (RNEP); koma Congress idadula ndalama zothandizira izi November 2005, ndipo chotsatira chimodzi chakhala chikhulupiliro chokula chakuti United States sidzayesa tsopano kukonzanso zida zake zanyukiliya zomwe zilipo kale kapena kupanga mitundu yatsopano.
Chimodzi mwazifukwa izi ndikuti zida zambiri zakale zomwe zidapangidwa ku US mu 1950s ndi 1960s kuti apange ndikumanga zida za nyukiliya zidatsekedwa pambuyo pa kutha kwa nkhondo yozizira, ngakhale zambiri za izi zinali chifukwa chodera nkhawa chitetezo. za zida m'malo mwa lingaliro la ndale lochotsa zida. Ngakhale zili choncho, ngati izi ziphatikizidwa ndi chiletso cha ndalama cha DRM pa RNEP, malingaliro nthawi zina amakopeka kuti nthawi ya nyukiliya yatha kapena yatsala pang'ono kutha ku United States.
Nkhani zaposachedwapa zikusonyeza kuti si choncho. Nkhani yowulula m'magazini otsogolera ankhondo a Jane's International Defense Review (IDR, January 2006) imapereka tsatanetsatane wa mapulani okweza ndikusintha zida zanyukiliya zomwe zidalipo kale komanso machitidwe ake operekera. Palinso zisonyezo za ubale wapamtima womwe ulipo pakati pa ma laboratories akuluakulu a kafukufuku wa zida za nyukiliya ku US ndi anzawo ang'onoang'ono aku Britain. Aldermaston; zikuwonekeratu kuti womalizayo akuyang'ana kale kuti apange cholowa m'malo mwa Trident system, mogwirizana ndi US, ngakhale kuti boma la Britain likupitiriza kunena kuti palibe chisankho chomwe chapangidwa.
Chimodzi mwa zosintha zazikulu zaposachedwa ndi zomwe zikuwoneka ngati zopanda vuto Pulogalamu Yoyang'anira Ntchito, yomwe idakhazikitsidwa mu 1993 kuti iwonetsetse kuti zida zanyukiliya zikwizikwi zomwe zili mu zida zanyukiliya za US zipitilira kugwira ntchito m'malo mowola. Tsopano zikuwoneka kuti pulogalamuyo ipitilira izi chifukwa, monga momwe IDR ikunenera, "imathandiziranso gawo lotsatira pakukonza zida za nyukiliya - kukhazikitsidwa kwa banja latsopano la zida za nyukiliya zomwe zipangitsa kuti njira yomaliza ya nyukiliya ikhale yogwira ntchito. [ndi. kumenya nkhondo ya zida za nyukiliya] pomwe zikupangitsanso kuti kusawononge ndalama komanso kusungitsa chitetezo. โ
Zida za nyukiliya zaku America
Zida zanyukiliya zaku US zili ndi zigawo zinayi. Zitatu zimadziwika kuti "miyendo" ya zida za nyukiliya zitatu zozikidwa pamtunda (mivi ya intercontinental ballistic monga mizinga ya 500 Minuteman III yomwe yatumizidwa tsopano), nyanja (monga mizinga ya Trident submarine-launched) ndi mpweya (ndege zakutali ngati ngati B-2 wophulitsa bomba). Gulu lachinayi ndi la zida zanyukiliya zomwe sizingawononge kwambiri zida zankhondo zomwe zimatha kuperekedwa ndi ndege zowononga. Ngakhale zazing'ono kuposa zida zankhondo, ambiri aiwo amapitilira kuwononga kwa bomba la Hiroshima ndi Nagasaki lomwe linapha anthu pafupifupi 160,000.
Padziko lonse la zida za nyukiliya, kusintha kwamakono ndi dongosolo lamasiku ano. Mzinga wa Minuteman III wamtunda wautali wasinthidwa posachedwa kuti uzitha kutumizidwa kwa zaka makumi atatu, komabe akuganiza kuti akuperekedwa kale m'malo mwake omwe amadziwika kuti Land Based Strategic Deterrent, omwe adathabe. atumizidwe mu 2060. Mofananamo, mzinga wa nyukiliya wa Trident ukadali ndi zaka zoposa khumi zotumizidwa patsogolo pake, komabe m'malo mwake ukukonzekera.
Ichi chikhoza kukhala chitsanzo choyamba cha chida chatsopano cha nyukiliya chopangidwa pansi pa zomwe zimatchedwa Reliable Replacement Warhead program (RRW) ndipo idayamba miyezi isanu ndi iwiri yapitayo. Mapangidwe ogwirizana a mutu wankhondo wa RRP kuti alowe m'malo mwa Trident atha kuvomerezedwa mu 2006, mutu woyamba wankhondo wokonzeka pofika 2012, malinga ngati Congress ivomereza.
Izi sizotsimikizika, chifukwa cha kutsutsa kwa DRM ku RNEP (bunker-buster) koyambirira kwa chaka, koma ngakhale pano opanga ali ndi mwayi wotsekereza kubetcha kwawo. M'chikhumbo chake chofuna kuwononga zolinga zokwiriridwa kwambiri, gulu lankhondo laku US likupanga bunker-buster wamba, Massive Ordnance Penetrator yopangidwa ndi Boeing. Izi zikuyembekezeredwa kukhala ndi zinthu zingapo zomwe zingasinthidwe kuti zigwiritsidwe ntchito mu mtundu wa zida za nyukiliya, kufulumizitsa njira yopangira bomba loterolo mtsogolo.
Ponena za kukhudzidwa kwa Britain, ngati chitsanzo choyambirira cha pulogalamu ya RRP ndi m'malo mwa Trident warhead, izi zingagwirizane ndi a British kwambiri, ndi chiyembekezo chogwirizana kwambiri komanso mwinanso kugawana ndalama zachitukuko.
Izi zikutanthawuza kuti dziko la Britain liyenera kutenga nawo mbali pa nthawi yayitali ya zida za nyukiliya za United States. Ngati mtundu waku Britain wa Trident usinthidwa m'zaka khumi mpaka khumi ndi zisanu, ndiye kuti wolowa m'malo adzakhala ndi nthawi yopitilira zaka makumi awiri ndi zisanu, kutambasula zolinga za nyukiliya zaku Britain zaka makumi anayi mtsogolo. Pankhani ya United States, wolowa m'malo mwa Minuteman wamakono akuganiziridwa kale, ndipo izi zikutanthauza kuti mafakitale a zida za nyukiliya aku US akuyang'ana zaka makumi asanu kutsogolo.
Ndi njira yayitali kwambiri kuchokera ku zofunikira za mgwirizano wosachulukitsa - ndithudi izo tsopano zimachitidwa ngati nthabwala ku Washington. Vuto lomwe mapulani ndi malingaliro otere amanyamula ndikuti sangathe kuyanjanitsidwa ndi kutsutsa kolimba kwa mayiko monga Iran akufuna kupanga zida zawo zanyukiliya. "Chinyengo" ndi chinthu chodziwika bwino cha zida za nyukiliya, koma mfundo yakuti US ndi Britain akuyang'ana patsogolo zaka makumi anayi mpaka makumi asanu zimapatsa mphamvu zowonjezera. Pamene mayikowa angaganizire zakusintha kwawo kwa zida za nyukiliya pomwe amanyoza maiko ngati Iran poganizira za chitukuko cha pulogalamu yophatikizika ya zida za nyukiliya zimawulula zomwe sizingachitike.
Washington, mosafunikira kunena, amawona zinthu mosiyana kwambiri. Ngati Israeli safika koyamba, United States ikhoza kuyambitsa nkhondo Iran posachedwapa, monga momwe mapulani ake atsopano a zida za nyukiliya akuchoka pa bolodi. Zotsutsanazi sizingakhale zoonekeratu mkati mwa kuwira kwa Beltway, koma ndizodziwikiratu ku Tehran komanso padziko lonse lapansi.
Nkhaniyi idasindikizidwa ndi Paul Rogers on openDemocracy.net pa Dec. 23, 2005, pansi pa laisensi ya Creative Commons.
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