Nkhondo yapachiweniweni ku Syria nthawi zonse yakhala yovuta kwambiri, ndipo ochita zisudzo angapo amatsatira zolemba zosiyanasiyana, koma m'miyezi ingapo yapitayo zidawoneka kuti zikutha. Boma la Damascus tsopano likulamulira 60 peresenti ya dzikolo komanso malo akuluakulu a anthu, Islamic State yagonjetsedwa, ndipo zigawenga zotsutsana ndi Purezidenti wa Syria Bashar al-Assad zakhala zikuzungulira m'chigawo cha Idlib kumpoto chakumadzulo kwa dzikolo. Koma mwadzidzidzi aku America adasuntha zigoli-mwina-anthu aku Russia adasemphana ndi Israeli, aku Iran akukumba zidendene, ndipo aku Turkey akuyesera kuchita zambiri ndi kutsogolo kwanyumba.
Kotero mdierekezi akadali pa ntchito pa nkhondo yomwe yatenga zaka zopitirira zisanu ndi ziwiri, yapha anthu okwana 500,000, kuthamangitsa anthu mamiliyoni ambiri, kusokoneza Middle East yomwe ili yosalimba kale, ndipo ili kutali.
Pali mabwalo osachepera atatu pankhondo yaku Syria, iliyonse ili ndi zovuta zake: Idilb kumpoto, gawo lakum'mawa kwa Mtsinje wa Euphrates, ndi dera lomwe lili kumwera kwa Golan Heights. Kungosankha adaniwo ndikovuta. Anthu aku Turks, aku Iran, aku America ndi aku Kurds ndi omwe amasewera kwambiri kummawa. Anthu aku Russia, Turkey, Kurds ndi Assad ali pakanthawi kochepa kumpoto. Ndipo Iran, Assad ndi Israel akukumana pafupi ndi Golan, mkangano womwe wachitika mwadzidzidzi ku Moscow.
Zolinga za Assad ndizolunjika: kugwirizanitsa dziko pansi pa ulamuliro wa Damasiko ndikuyamba kumanganso mizinda yowonongeka ya Syria. Cholepheretsa chachikulu pa izi ndi Idlib, gulu lalikulu lomaliza lamagulu odana ndi Assad, ma Jihadist olumikizidwa ndi al-Qaeda, komanso gulu lankhondo laling'ono la Turkey loyimira. Ntchito Nthambi ya Olive. Chigawochi, chomwe chili m'malire a Turkey kumpoto, ndi mapiri ndipo kubwerezanso kulonjeza kukhala kovuta.
Kwa nthawiyi pali kuima pansi. Anthu aku Russia adadula mgwirizano ndi Turkey kuti awononge madera ozungulira mzinda wa Idlib, kuthetsa magulu a jihadist, ndikutsegulanso misewu yayikulu. Panganoli likuletsa kuukira kwa Assad-Russian ku Idlib, komwe kukadathamangitsa mazana masauzande a othawa kwawo ku Turkey ndipo mwina kupha anthu ambiri.
Koma mgwirizanowu ndi wanthawi yochepa-pafupifupi a Mwezi-chifukwa Russia ikulephera kuthetsa kumenyana ndikuyamba kumanganso. Komabe, ndizovuta kuwona momwe a Turks angathandizire pagulu lodabwitsa lomwe ladzaza chigawochi, ena mwa omwe adathandizira kwazaka zambiri. Ankara atha kubweretsa asitikali ochulukirapo, koma dziko la Turkey lili kale ndi asitikali kum'mawa kwa Euphrates ndipo likuyandikira pamavuto azachuma. Kuthira chuma chochuluka m’chimene chasanduka matope sichingasangalatse anthu a ku Turkey, omwe awona kukwera kwa mitengo kumawononga malipiro awo ndi penshoni, ndipo Lira ya ku Turkey ikutsika mtengo pafupifupi 40 peresenti chaka chatha. Zisankho zam'deralo zidzachitika mu 2019, ndipo Purezidenti waku Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan ndi mphamvu zake za Justice and Development Party zakhazikika pakukweza chuma.
Kum'mawa kwa Syria, asitikali aku Turkey, omwe ndi gawo la Operation Euphrates Shield, akukankhira anthu aku America komanso gulu lankhondo lachi Kurd la Syria lomwe likumenya nkhondo ndi Islamic State (IS). Erdogan akuda nkhawa kwambiri ndi a Kurds aku Syria komanso momwe angakhudzire anthu aku Kurd aku Turkey, kuposa momwe amachitira ndi IS.
Mgwirizano wa Ankara pankhaniyi ndi Iran, yomwe siida nkhawa kwambiri ndi aku Kurds, koma ikukhudzidwa kwambiri ndi aku America 2,200. "Tiyenera kuthetsa vuto lomwe lili kum'mawa kwa Euphrates ndikukakamiza America kutuluka," Purezidenti waku Iran Hassan Rouhani adatero kumayambiriro kwa September.
Cholinga chomalizachi chinangofika povuta kwambiri. Asilikali apadera aku US adayimbidwa mlandu wothandizira ma Kurdish ndi Arab allies kuthamangitsa IS. Pulezidenti Donald Trump adauza msonkhano mu Marichi, "tituluka ku Syria posachedwa." Koma ndondomekoyi ikuwoneka kuti yasintha. National Security Advisor John Bolton tsopano akuti asitikali aku US akhalabe ku Syria mpaka Iran ichoke. Popeza palibe mwayi woti izi zichitike, kudzipereka kwa US mwadzidzidzi kumveka kotseguka. Ndemanga ya Bolton yadzutsa kutsutsa ku US Congress kuti "Mission ikupita," ngakhale Trump sanayankhe mwachindunji izi.
A Kurds agwidwa pakati. US sinadzipereke kuti iwateteze ku Turkey, ndipo boma la Assad likukakamiza kuti derali likhale pansi pa ulamuliro wa Damasiko. Komabe, boma la Syria lapanga mgwirizano kwa a Kurds kuti akambirane za kudziyimira pawokha kwachigawo, ndipo wina akuganiza kuti aku Kurds ayesa kuthetsa mgwirizano kuti awateteze ku Ankara. Anthu aku Russia akhala akukankhira Assad-Kurd detente.
Turkey ingafune kukhala kum'mawa kwa Syria, koma ndizovuta kuwona momwe Ankara angachitire izi, makamaka ngati a Turks atambasulidwa pakati pa Idlib ndi Euphrates Shield kummawa. Chosavuta ndichakuti Erdogan sanaganizire molakwika kulimba kwa boma la Assad ndipo adafika pomwe adaganiza kuti kuwombera bomba lankhondo laku Russia ku 2015 kungabweretse NATO kupulumutsa ndikuwopseza Moscow. M'malo mwake, aku Russia tsopano akuwongolera mlengalenga ku Idlib, ndipo Turkey idasiyanitsidwa ndi NATO.
Anthu aku Russia akhala akusamala ku Syria. Zomwe zimawadetsa nkhawa kwambiri ndikusunga malo awo apanyanja ku Latakia, kumenya al-Qaeda ndi IS, ndikuthandizira bwenzi lawo lakale la Syria. M'malo moyankha mwachindunji kuputa kwa Erdogan mu 2015, Moscow idabweretsa makina awo owopsa a S-400, mapiko a ndege zankhondo zapamwamba, ndikuwonjezera kupezeka kwawo kwapamadzi ndi makina ake apamwamba a radar. Uthenga unali womveka: musayesenso.
Koma aku Russia adasiya kuukira ku Idlib, ndipo akhala akuyesera kuti a Israeli ndi aku Iran asagwirizane mdera lozungulira Golan Heights. Moscow idaganiza zosunga Iran ndi ogwirizana nawo osachepera 60 mailosi kuchokera kumalire a Israeli, koma Israeli - ndipo tsopano US - ikufuna Iran kuti ichoke ku Syria.
Boma la Assad likufuna kuti Tehran akhalebe, komanso kupewa kuwomberana kwakukulu pakati pa Iran ndi Israeli komwe kungagwire Damasiko pakati. Ngakhale mazana mazana akuukira ndege ku Israeli ku Syria, sipanakhalepo zowukira zotsutsana ndi Asiriya kapena aku Iran, kutanthauza kuti Assad waletsa zachiwawa zilizonse.
Zonsezi zinatha pa Seputembara 17, pomwe ndege zaku Israeli zikuwoneka kuti zidagwiritsa ntchito ndege yaku Russia ya Ilyushin-M20 yowunikiranso kuti ibise kuukira ku Damasiko. Ndege zankhondo zaku Syria zidayankha ndikumaliza kuwombera ndege yaku Russia ndikupha onse omwe anali m'ngalawa. Russia anaimba mlandu Israeli ndipo patatha masiku angapo, Purezidenti wa Russia Vladimir Putin adalengeza kuti Moscow ikutumiza njira yake yolimbana ndi ndege ya S-300 ku Syria, pamodzi ndi mndandanda wa kukonza mu network ya radar ya Damasiko. Syria pakadali pano imagwiritsa ntchito S-200 system yomwe imabwerera ku '60s.
Kukwezaku sikungawopsyeze kwenikweni ndege za Israeli - S-300 idalembedwa ndipo Israeli mwina ali ndi zida zamagetsi kuti agonjetse - koma mwadzidzidzi thambo la Syria silikhalanso losagwirizana, ndipo, ngati Tel Aviv asankha kutsatira grid radar yaku Syria. , a ku Russia ali ndi S-400 yawo m'mapiko. Osati checkmate, koma fufuzani.
Momwe zonsezi zikugwedezeka pansi sizikuwonekeratu, koma pali njira zothetsera vutoli. Dziko la Turkey liyenera kuchoka ku Syria, koma liyenera kuvomereza kuti a Kurds a ku Syria adzakhala ndi ufulu wochuluka bwanji. A Kurds atha kuthetsa mgwirizano ndi Assad chifukwa boma likufuna mtendere. A Irani akufuna kusunga chikoka chawo ku Syria ndi ulalo wa Hezbollah ku Lebanon, koma sakufuna kusokoneza kwambiri Israeli.
Zomwe zikubwera Msonkhano wa Istanbul pa Syria ya Russia, France, Turkey ndi Germany adzakambirana za njira yothetsera ndale pa nkhondo yapachiweniweni ndi kumangidwanso pambuyo pa nkhondo.
Israeli pamapeto pake iyenera kugwirizana ndi Iran ngati wosewera wamkulu ku Middle East ndikuzindikira kuti "umodzi kutsogolo" wotsutsana ndi Tehran waku Washington, Tel Aviv ndi ma monarchies a Gulf nthawi zambiri ndi zabodza. A Saudis ali muvuto lalikulu lazachuma, Gulf Cooperation Council yagawika, ndipo Israeli ndi US akuchulukirachulukira chifukwa chodana ndi Tehran.
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