Kuwerenga kwa lipoti laposachedwa la CIA pa "dziko mu 2025" silimapereka chidziwitso chilichonse chomwe wowonera wamba zachuma ndi ndale sakanadziwa. Kumbali ina, kumatithandiza kudziŵa bwino mmene gulu lolamulira la United States limaganizira ndi kuzindikira malire a maganizo amenewo.
Ndikanena mwachidule zomwe ndawerengazo ndi mfundo izi:
- Kutha kulosera kwa Washington kumadabwitsa ndi kufooka kwake; wina amamva kuti malipoti otsatizana a CIA nthawi zonse amakhala "kumbuyo" zochitika, osati patsogolo pawo.
- Gulu lolamulira ili sadziwa udindo umene "anthu" nthawi zina amachita m'mbiri; Zimapereka lingaliro lakuti maganizo ndi zosankha za magulu olamulira okha ndi omwe amawerengedwa, komanso kuti anthu nthawi zonse "amatsatira" zisankhozo ndikusintha okha kuti agwirizane nazo popanda kuchititsa kuti alephere, osasiyapo kukakamiza njira zosiyanasiyana.
- Palibe malingaliro ovomerezeka a "akatswiri" omwe angaganize kuti ndi zotheka (akadali "ovomerezeka") njira ina iliyonse yoyendetsera chuma kupatula momwe chuma wamba chimavomereza chikhalidwe cha "sayansi" cha ("neo-liberal," malonda aulere, "opangidwa padziko lonse lapansi. "Economy ya capitalist), chifukwa chake sipangakhale zodalirika (ndipo zotheka) m'malo mwa "kapitalism ya msika waulere."
- Kuphatikiza apo, malingaliro omwe munthu achotsa pakuwerengaku ndikuti kukhazikitsidwa kwa United States kumasunga tsankho lamphamvu, makamaka pokhudzana ndi anthu aku Africa ndi Latin America.
A CIA Sanawone Mavuto Azachuma Akubwera
Lipoti lapitalo - dziko mu 2015 - silinaganize kuti ndalama za oligopolistic capitalism zitha kugwa ngati zomwe zidachitika mu 2008 ndipo zidadziwikiratu ndikufotokozedwa zaka m'mbuyomu ndi akatswiri ofufuza omwe akatswiri aku United States sanachitepo kanthu. werengani (kuphatikiza François Morin, John Bellamy Foster ndi ine ndekha).
Momwemonso, kulephera kwankhondo ku Afghanistan sikunaganiziridwe ndipo chifukwa chake ndi mu lipoti laposachedwa kwambiri kuti kusiya pang'ono malingaliro a Washington pakuwongolera usilikali padziko lapansi kumaganiziridwa - mwachiwonekere, kutsatira kulephera kwake!
Chifukwa chake ngakhale lero (kuchokera ku 2025) lipotilo likunena mosakayikira kuti "kugwa kwa kudalirana kwa mayiko" sikungaganizidwe. Lingaliro lathu, m'malo mwake, ndiloti pali kuthekera kwakukulu kwa "de-globalization" kudzera mu malamulo okhwima komanso osagwirizana ndi zigawo (zosagwirizana ndi lingaliro lakuti maubwenzi omwe zigawozi zidzasunga pakati pawo zidzakhala cholinga cha zokambirana osapeputsa kwambiri kudziyimira kwawo kwachibale).
Mwanjira zambiri, "hegemony" ya United States, kutsika kwake kwakhala ikuwoneka kwazaka makumi angapo koma idatsimikiziridwa mu lipoti lapitalo kuti idakali "yotsimikizika" tsopano ikuganiziridwa ngati "yotha," komabe ikadali yolimba.
Matenda a Myopia
Ndi mwambo kuti magulu olamulira asaganizire kutha kwa dongosololi komwe kumatsimikizira kupitiriza kwa ulamuliro wawo. "Kusintha," choncho, nthawi zonse si "zoopsa" kwa iwo, komanso ngozi zosayembekezereka, zosayembekezereka, "zopanda nzeru".
Myopia wakupha uyu amawaletsa kutuluka mu chimango cha otchedwa "real-politik" (osati zenizeni, kwenikweni!) Njira yomwe imapangidwa ndi zotsatira za kuwerengera, mgwirizano ndi mikangano yomwe imakhudza magulu olamulira. kokha.
Chifukwa chake geopolitics ndi geostrategy ndizokhazikika m'chizimezime zomwe zimagwirizana ndi masewerawo. Malingaliro opangidwa ndi akatswiri a CIA okhudzana ndi zosankha zosiyanasiyana za gulu lalikulu la United States (komanso ogwirizana nawo aku Europe ndi Japan) poyankha adani awo akulu (maiko "otuluka", pomwe China idayamba) chisokonezo zotheka oscillations ena ndithudi ali ndi maziko.
Koma zoona zake n’zakuti mndandanda wa zolinga ndi njira zogwiritsiridwa ntchito ndi maboma, mayiko ndi anthu a m’madera ozungulira dziko lonse lapansi (kaya m’mayiko otukuka kapena oponderezedwa) zimachepetsedwa kwambiri ndi tsankho lofunika kwambiri la “kapitalist”.
Kutsutsana kwakukulu kumene kumayang'anizana ndi magulu olamulira a mayiko okhudzidwa akunyalanyazidwa. Kuti makalasi amenewo ndi "pro-capitalist" m'lingaliro lalikulu la mawuwa sizokayikitsa, koma zodziwikiratu. Komabe, mapulani awo a capitalist atha kutumizidwa kumlingo womwe njira zomwe zakhazikitsidwa zimalepheretsa ma imperialist omwe akuyenera kubwezeredwa.
Mapeto a "Belle Époque"
Lipotilo limapeputsa kwambiri kutsutsana uku kuti likwaniritse zomwe zikuwonekabe zolondola lero, ndiko kuti, kuti mphamvu zomwe zilipo (ku China, ku India, ku Brazil, Russia ndi kwina) sakayikira (panobe?) dongosolo la mayiko. Zili choncho pakalipano chifukwa m'gawo lapitalo la kutumizidwa kwa mayiko padziko lonse lapansi, nthawi yomwe ndafotokoza kuti "belle èpoque" (1980-2008), mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene adachita bwino "kupindula" kuchokera ku kuyika kwawo ku mgwirizano wapadziko lonse womwe ukupitirira.
Koma gawo ili tsopano latha ndipo magulu olamulira m'mayiko omwe akukhudzidwa ayenera kuzindikira kuti, kuyambira pamenepo, agwiritse ntchito njira zochepa "zothandizira" zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi oligopolies of the imperialist center, makamaka, njira zomwe zidzasemphana kwambiri ndi zapakati.
Chinthu chotsimikizika - chonyalanyazidwa ndi akatswiri a CIA - mwinamwake chidzafulumizitsa chitukuko ichi: kuvutika kwa kuyanjanitsa kukula kwa "capitalist" ndi mayankho ovomerezeka ku mavuto a chikhalidwe cha anthu omwe akugwirizana ndi kukula kumeneku, zovuta zomwe maboma ali nazo pamphepete mwa nyanja. ndondomeko ikuwonongeka.
Akatswiri a CIA samasiyanitsa pakati pa magulu olamulira a likulu lachifumu ndi omwe ali m'madera ozungulira chifukwa onse ndi "pro-capitalist." Komabe, m'malingaliro anga, kusiyana kumeneku ndikofunikira. Magulu olamulira a triad ya imperialist - atumiki okhulupirika a oligopolies - sakuwopsezedwa kwenikweni, makamaka m'tsogolo lowoneka. Chotsatira chake, iwo adzapitirizabe kuchitapo kanthu poyang'anira zovutazo, popereka zochepa zochepetsera zofuna za anthu ngati zingafunike.
Komabe magulu olamulira a m'mphepete mwake ali m'malo abwino kwambiri. Malire a zomwe njira ya chikapitalist ingatulutse m’malo amenewo ndi yakuti maubale a olamulira ndi anthu otsika amakhalabe osamvetsetseka.
Kutukuka kwa chikhalidwe cha mphamvu, zabwino m'madigiri osiyanasiyana mpaka otsika ndizotheka m'malo amenewo, ndipo mwinanso mwina. The convergence pakati pa mkangano wotsutsa imperialism kwa anthu ndi mayiko a periphery mbali imodzi ndi zomwe zimatsutsa capitalism ku socialist kaonedwe Komanso ndi pa gwero la udindo wovuta wa ovomereza-capitalist olamulira mu mphamvu ku South.
Akhungu a Neo-Liberalism
Popanda kumvetsetsa kutsutsana kwakukulu uku, akatswiri ochokera ku United States kukhazikitsidwa amakhulupirira kuti njira ya "boma capitalism" (ku China ndi Russia) sichitha ndipo iyenera kutsogolera tsiku lina kubwezeretsedwa kwa capitalism yaufulu. Kuthekera kwina komwe kumawapewa ndi chakuti ukapitalizimu wa boma [ukhoza] kusinthika “kumanzere” pansi pa chitsenderezo chachipambano cha magulu apansi.
Zochitika zomwe zikuganiziridwa mu lipotilo, kwenikweni, sizowona. Lingaliro la Washington silidutsa tsankho malinga ndi momwe kupambana kwakukulu kwakukula kwamphamvu kwa mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene kudzalimbitsa magulu apakati omwe amalakalaka nthawi imodzi kukhala capitalism yaufulu ndi "demokalase," demokalase imatanthauzidwa, ndithudi, ndi chilinganizo chopeza Kumadzulo ( zipani zambiri ndi "woyimira" "demokalase" zisankho), njira yokhayo ya demokalase yovomerezedwa ndi mabungwe aku Western.
Kuti magulu apakati omwe akufunsidwawo sangafune demokalase chifukwa amadziwa kuti kusungirako mwayi wawo kumafuna kuponderezedwa kwa zofuna zodziwika sizichitika kwa "akatswiri" athu. Kuti, zotsatira zake, demokalase yokhudzana ndi kupita patsogolo kwa chikhalidwe cha anthu, m'malo mosiyanitsidwa nayo monga momwe ziliri mu "demokalase" yovomerezeka, iyenera kutenga njira zina ndi zachilendo kumalingaliro awo.
Mwachizoloŵezi, “akatswiri” a ukapitalisti amanyalanyaza kuthekera kwa kuloŵerera kwa anthu m’mbiri. M'malo mwake, amaona udindo wa "anthu apadera" (monga Lenin ndi Mao, omwe kulowererapo kwa zigawenga za Russia ndi China kunachitika, ngati kuti sikunakhaleko cholinga chomwe chinapangitsa kuti zisinthezo zidziwike, kaya atsogoleri awo ali ndi udindo wotani! )
Zomwe munthu angachotse pamasewerawa a "mawonekedwe" omwe amaganiziridwa mkati mwa kuganiza mochepa kwa akatswiri a capitalist ndizochepa. Mfundo zambiri zosangalatsa (mosakayikira zogwiridwa molondola), palibe malingaliro okhutiritsa a chonsecho, popeza kuti zotsutsana zazikulu zomwe zimapereka tanthauzo ndi kukakamiza kumenyana ndi mikangano zimanyalanyazidwa.
Mwachitsanzo, mndandanda wautali wazinthu zatsopano zaukadaulo zomwe zitha kuyambika siziphunzitsa zambiri. Kupatula izo - koma tinkadziwa kuti kale - mayiko omwe akutuluka (China ndi India, makamaka) amatha kuwalamulira.
Funso lenileni lomwe likubwera pano, kwa mayiko omwe ali ndi "mayiko olemera" a triad, likukhudzana ndi kugwiritsa ntchito matekinoloje awo, zofuna za chikhalidwe cha anthu zomwe zidzagwiritsidwe ntchito, "zovuta" zothetsera mavuto omwe angathe. amathandizira, ndipo, potsutsana, "mavuto" owonjezera omwe amawagwiritsa ntchito. Palibe mafunso akulu akulu awa omwe akuphunziridwa mu lipotilo.
Samir Amin ndi katswiri wazachuma waku Franco-Egyptian wobadwa mu 1931 yemwe amagwira ntchito pazachuma chachitukuko.
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
Ndalama