Gwero: Counterpunch
Ndizosadabwitsa kuti mphotho yoyamba, kapena riboni ya buluu, yopitilira 2 ยฐ C pamwamba poyambira imapita ku Arctic ndi permafrost yomwe imatenga 25% ya Kumpoto kwa dziko lapansi. Kuzindikirika kwanthawi yayitali, popeza kwanyalanyazidwa kwanthawi yayitali kwambiri ndi Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Chidziwitso chofunikirachi chimabwera ndi gawo laposachedwa la sayansi (1:27 kutalika) lothandizidwa ndi National Academy of Sciences.
Webusaitiyi ili ndi mutu wakuti: Thawing Arctic Permafrost: Regional and Global Impacts, yochitidwa ndi John P. Holdren, Teresa & John Heinz Pulofesa wa Environmental Policy, John F. Kennedy School of Government, University of Harvard.
Nthawi singakhale bwinoko. The Arctic Circle yakhala yosangalatsa kwambiri. Chifukwa chake, anthu ayenera kudabwa kuti apanga chiyani ndi nkhani zosokoneza zomwe sizikusokoneza, mopambanitsa.
Malinga ndi Euronews, kuyambira pa Julayi 14th:
โKumpoto kwenikweni ndi kupitirira kwa Arctic Circle kwachititsa kuti chaka chino pakhale kutentha kwambiri. Pa June 20, ntchito yoona za nyengo ku Russia inafika pa 38ยฐC ku Verkhoyansk, kutentha kwapamwamba kwambiri kuposa kale lonse kuyambira pamene mbiri inayamba chakumapeto kwa zaka za mโma XNUMX.โ
"Izi zikuthandizira kusungunuka kofulumira kwa permafrost, malo oundana a m'derali, pomwe pamamangidwa malo ambiri omangira mafakitale ndi nyumba, zambiri zopangira ma hydrocarbons amigodi," Ibid.
"Kusungunuka kwa mitengo yomwe imakhala ngati kutentha kwa mphepo yam'mlengalenga imakhala ndi zotsatira za nyengo yonse," Ibid.
Mosakayikira, zomwe zimachitika ku Arctic sizikhala ku Arctic.
Malinga ndi zimene Pulofesa Holdren ananena: โKutentha kwa nyanja ya Arctic kukuwonjezereka mofulumira kwambiri kuลตirikiza ka 2 mpaka 3 kuposa mmene amachitira padziko lonseโฆ
Wokamba nkhani woyamba pa intaneti anali Dr. Susan M. Natali, Associate Scientist ndi Arctic Program Director, Woods Hole Research Center, katswiri wa zachilengedwe wa ku Arctic yemwe amayang'ana kwambiri za chilengedwe ndi zotsatira zoyendetsa njinga za carbon pa permafrost thaw.
Malinga ndi Dr. Natali, kutentha kwa Arctic kuno kwatentha kale ndi 2 ยฐ C kuposa nthawi yayitali. Zotsatira zake ndi kutayika kwa madzi oundana mโnyanja, kusungunuka kwa madzi oundana a Greenland, ndi kusungunuka kwa madzi oundana.
Permafrost thaw imayang'aniridwa ndi zitsime zobowoleredwa mozama mamita 20 (mamita 66) ku Arctic yonse. Choncho, kusintha kwa kutentha kumapewa kusintha kwa nyengo. Kutentha kwakuya kwa chisanu, nthawi zina, kumayesedwa kwa zaka 40. Zotsatira: Kutentha kwa Permafrost kumatentha kwambiri pa bolodi, mosasamala kanthu za nyengo.
Chodziwikiratu, Northern Hemisphere permafrost ili ndi matani 1100-1500 biliyoni a carbon mu mawonekedwe a zinthu zakale zakale. Poyerekeza, uku ndi kuwirikiza kawiri kuchuluka kwa mpweya womwe uli kale m'mlengalenga, ndipo ndi mpweya wochuluka kuwirikiza katatu kuposa m'nkhalango za padziko lonse lapansi.
Tanthauzo lodziwikiratu la zonena za Dr. Natali ndikuti umunthu ukusewera ndi moto m'njira yayikulu kwambiri polola kuti mpweya wowonjezera kutentha wa anthropogenic (magalimoto, ndege, ndi masitima apamtunda, ndi zina zotero) ziziyenda movutikira, zikuwonjezeka ndi mwezi, pofika chaka, zaka khumi zomwe zilibe mathero, palibe. Panthawi ina mabiliyoni a matani a carbon omwe amasungidwa mufiriji ya permafrost ayamba kutayika kuposa momwe amachitira kale ndipo anthu adzapeza tsekwe ataphika, mwina atachita bwino.
Malinga ndi Natali, mpweya wa permafrost sunaphatikizidwe mu bajeti ya IPCC yapadziko lonse ya carbon yomwe imayang'ana 2ยฐC kapena pansi, makamaka pansi pa 1.5ยฐC. Chabwino, mwina Arctic yotenthedwa mwadzidzidzi idzabweretsa kuwerengeranso momwe IPCC imawonera ndikuwerengera bajeti ya kaboni. Kuliko mochedwa kuposa kale.
Ndipo, nali gawo losautsa mtima (limodzi mwa ambiri): Ntchito yakumunda yopangidwa ndi asayansi yatsimikizira kuti permafrost ndi "net emitter ya CO2," izi patatha zaka masauzande ngati "sink ya kaboni," koma osatinso! Chifukwa chake, zaka masauzande a imodzi mwamiyala yayikulu kwambiri padziko lapansi idafufutidwa ndi kusasamala kwa chilengedwe chopangidwa ndi anthu.
Osati zokhazo, malinga ndi Natali, kusungunuka kwa permafrost kokha ndikofanana ndi ~ 25% ya mpweya wololedwa ndi IPCC kuti ukhale pansi pa 1.5ยฐC. Komabe, IPCC siyiphatikiza permafrost mu bajeti yake ya kaboni, kutanthauza kuti pali chodabwitsa choyipa kwambiri pamzere wa anthu ochepetsa nyengo ya rah-rah.
Wokamba nkhani wachiwiri anali Katey Walter Anthony, Aquatic Ecosystem Ecologist ndi Pulofesa, Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska/Fairbanks.
Dr. Anthony wagwira ntchito m'munda mu Russia ndi ntchito zambiri ku Siberia (hothouse masiku ano). Kafukufuku wake amayang'ana pa thermokarst, mapangidwe a nyanja, ndi mpweya wowonjezera kutentha wa methane.
Malinga ndi Dr. Anthony, mitundu yamakono ya nyengo padziko lapansi simaphatikizapo mpweya wochokera ku nyanja za thermokarst. Komabe, ndi ochuluka ndi mamiliyoni a nyanja za thermokarst zomwe zikukulirakulira ndikutulutsa methane kudera lonse la Arctic.
Osati zokhazo koma dothi la permafrost lili ndi 1500 gigatons ya carbon, yomwe malinga ndi Dr. Anthony, ikufanana ndi zaka 150 za mpweya wa mafuta opangira mafuta pansi pa zomwe zikuchitika. Tangoganizani kutembenuka kutaya gawo lalikulu la kaboniyo. Apanso, mapulani ochepetsa kutulutsa mpweya wa kaboni kumayiko / mayiko afa ndithu kuti sakwaniritsa zolinga zomwe anthu amati akufuna.
Mayeso a m'minda panyanja za thermokarst amachitidwa potsitsa msampha wa thovu m'madzi kuti mutchere ma methane ang'onoang'ono ngati mavuvu a methane chaka chonse. Misampha yamadzi imapezeka m'nyanja zopitilira 300 ku Arctic yonse.
Zinali zaka 14,000 zapitazo, pamene nyengo inkayamba kutentha, pamene nyanja za permafrost thermokarst zinayaka pamalopo, zomwe zinabweretsa kutentha kwa 4ยฐC kwa zaka 8,000. Masiku ano, malinga ndi kunena kwa Dr. Anthony, kutentha kwa 4ยฐC kofananako kudzachitika mโzaka 80 zokha kusiyana kwambiri ndi zaka 8,000 za mbiri ya paleoclimate. Mwachiwonekere, popanda kunena choncho, zikutanthauza dongosolo la nyengo lomwe lili pa mawilo ophunzitsira ma turbo charger, akulu kwenikweni.
"Tayimilira pachimake cha kusintha kwadzidzidzi kwa mpweya wa permafrost." (Anthony)
Chifundo! Ndipo, mapulani onse ochepetsera omwe apangidwa ndi mayiko 195, koma kodi adachokadi pansi? Chowonadi ndi chakuti mpweya umakwera mmwamba mosalekeza, ad nauseam. Chifukwa chake, ndikufunsa kuti ndani amayang'anitsitsa sitoloyo?
John Holdren adamaliza gawoli: Mwina tikuyang'ana magigatoni 80 mpaka 100 a carbon omwe atulutsidwa ku permafrost m'zaka za zana lino. Kuphatikiza apo, izi zimatengera kuluma kwakukulu ku bajeti yapadziko lonse lapansi ya kaboni. Malinga ndi kunena kwa Dr. Holdren, chiyembekezo chimenecho chiri kuwonjezera pa kuwonjezereka kwa kutentha kwapadziko lonse, mpaka pano, kwa 1.1ยฐC mpaka 1.2ยฐC pamwamba pa chiyambi.
Permafrost, yomwe siinaphatikizidwe mu bajeti yapadziko lonse ya carbon ndi IPCC, ikhoza kuwonjezera 25% mpaka 40%. Ndilo vuto lalikulu lomwe limabweretsa mavuto akulu pamzerewu. Kodi dziko lomwe lili pachiwopsezo chochepetsa kutulutsa mpweya wa kaboni likufuna kuchita chiyani?
Komabe, Dr. Holdren, yemwe anatsogolera Pulezidenti Obama's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, akuti n'zothekabe kuchepetsa kutentha kwa 2 ยฐ C. Koma pamtengo wa ~ 3% ya GDP yapadziko lonse lapansi. Ahem! Ananenanso kuti kugunda kwachitukuko chifukwa cholephera kuchepetsa kupitilira mtengowo, womwe umakhala 3% ya $85T kapena $2.55T yochuluka (ndiyo mathililiyoni). Moni, alipo amene ali kunja uko?
Pakali pano, patatha zaka zambiri za kugwedeza ndi kutulutsa misozi ya obiriwira, dziko lapansi likadali 80% yodalira mafuta oyaka, zomwe zinavumbulutsidwa ndi Dr. Holdren kumapeto kwa nkhani yake. Izi ndizovuta kwambiri.
Ndizofanana ndi 80% monga zaka 50 zapitazo ndi chizindikiro chodziwikiratu cha kulephera kotheratu kwa maboma padziko lonse lapansi ndi kulephera kwakukulu kwa IPCC kukwaniritsa / kukonza / kulimbikitsa Paris '15 mapulani ake opulumutsa dziko lapansi. Ndizochititsa manyazi!
Ponena za mafunso / malingaliro omaliza kudzera pa intaneti:
Malinga ndi Dr. Anthony: The East Siberian Arctic Sea ndi malo omwe โtawonapo kuchuluka kwakukulu kwa CH4 kutulutsidwa.
Zotsatirazi sizinakambidwe pa intaneti: Kutentha kunali posachedwapa 30-34C (86-93F) m'dera la East Siberian Arctic Sea (ESAS), dera lomwe ndi lofanana ndi Germany France Gr Br Italy ndi Japan pamodzi ndi 75% m'dera la 50-80m, madzi osaya, kulola CH4 kumasulidwa mwachangu komanso kosavuta kuchokera ku subsea permafrost popanda okosijeni. Kubowola kochitidwa ndi asayansi ena kwapeza kuchulukitsitsa kwa methane yowundana, komanso kupatulira kowoneka bwino kwa subsea permafrost. Magwero odalirika omwe amatsatira kwambiri mpweya wa CH4 m'chigawo cha ESAS ali ndi malingaliro: "Zitha kukhala zosalamulirika." Koma, ndikofunikira kuzindikira kuti ndi chidziwitso chambiri.
Komanso, modabwitsa, nyengo yolemera kwambiri yotulutsa methane mumlengalenga yangoyamba kumene.
Zomwe zidapangitsa kuti zinthu ziipireipire, Kumtunda kwa Dziko lapansi, kutentha kwa nyanja ya Arctic Ocean, komwe nthawi ino pachaka kumakhala 0.3ยฐC (32ยฐF) posachedwapa kunali 12ยฐC (54ยฐF). Ndizodabwitsa kwambiri!
Postscript: Asayansi azindikira kutayikira koyamba kwa mpweya wa methane ku Antarctica, adalengeza Julayi 22nd, yopezedwa ndi ofufuza motsogozedwa ndi Andrew Thurber/Oregon State University, yemwe anati: โNdimaona kuti ikukhudza kwambiri.โ (Source: Andrew R. Thurber, et al, Riddles in the Cold: Antarctic Endemism and Microbial Succession Impact Methane Cycling in the Southern Ocean, The Royal Society, July 22, 2020).
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