LONDON - Hassan Rouhani wapambananso pachisankho cha Purezidenti wa Iran mopambanitsa, kutanthauza kuti ndi amene akulimbana ndi Purezidenti wa US Donald Trump. Kodi ubale wawo utanthauza chiyani pa mgwirizano wapadziko lonse wa 2015 womwe, pakadali pano, wathetsa zilakolako za nyukiliya za Iran?
Mgwirizano wa zida za nyukiliya waku Iran udafika pachimake kwa zaka makumi ambiri palibe awiri pakati pa United States ndi Iran pambuyo pa chisinthiko - kukankhira ndi kukoka, momwe kupita patsogolo kulikonse kunkawoneka kutsatiridwa ndi kubwerera mmbuyo. Munthawi yaulamuliro wa Purezidenti wa US Jimmy Carter, pomwe Shah adagwa ndipo ogwira ntchito ku kazembe wa US adagwidwa kwa nthawi yopitilira chaka, mbali ziwirizi zidagawikana mopanda chiyembekezo.
Pansi pa Purezidenti wa US Ronald Reagan ndi wachiwiri kwa purezidenti komanso wolowa m'malo mwake, George HW Bush, zinthu zidasokonekera kwambiri ndi chipongwe cha Iran-Contra, pomwe akuluakulu aboma la Reagan adathandizira mobisa kugulitsa zida ku Iran pakati pa 1985 ndi 1987, ngakhale anali ndi zida. embargo. Zotsatira zake, Purezidenti wocheperako Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani atatenga mphamvu mu Ogasiti 1989, adathetsa nkhondo ya Iran ndi Iraq, ndikutulutsa zomverera ku US, manja a Bush adamangidwa.
Pambuyo pake Rafsanjani adakhazikitsanso pulogalamu ya nyukiliya ya Iran, ndikuchira kunkhondo ndi Iraq ndikupangitsa kupita patsogolo. Koma anali Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, yemwe adalowa m'malo mwa Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini monga Mtsogoleri Wapamwamba mu June 1989, yemwe adatsogolera dzikolo, poyika ubale ndi US mu mgwirizano. kuzizira kwathunthu. Zoyeserera za Purezidenti Bill Clinton wowongolera bwino kuti athetse thaw zidakanidwa mobwerezabwereza.
Kenako matebulo anatembenuka. Pomwe Purezidenti wodziyimira pawokha Mohammad Khatami adatenga udindo mu 1997, inali US yomwe idalowera njira yovuta kwambiri. Zigawenga zitaukira dziko la United States pa September 11, 2001, Pulezidenti George W. Bush anadzudzula dziko la Iran kuti ndi mbali ya dziko limene ananena kuti ndi โmbali ya zoipa.โ Ndipo komabe, pakuwukira Iraq mu 2003, US motsogozedwa ndi Bush idapatsa Iran mwayi waukulu kwambiri wam'mbiri wakukulitsa chakumadzulo. Mu 2005, maloto okonzedwanso a chigawo cha Iranian hegemony anathandiza kubweretsa mphamvu Purezidenti Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, yemwe adatsata pulogalamu ya nyukiliya mwamphamvu.
Mu 2013, Ahmadinejad adasinthidwa ndi Rouhani. Ndi Purezidenti Barack Obama ali kale paudindo ku US, mikhalidwe inali yakucha kutenga masitepe angapo patsogolo. Pambuyo pazaka pafupifupi ziwiri zakukambirana kovutitsa, mgwirizano woyimitsa pulogalamu ya nyukiliya ya Iran, posinthana ndi kuchotsedwa pang'onopang'ono kwa zilango zachuma, unamalizidwa.
Otsutsawo adanena kuti mgwirizanowu unali wolakwika mwaukadaulo ndipo sizingalepheretse Iran kuti apitirize kupanga zida za nyukiliya. Koma International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - bungwe lopatsidwa mphamvu zotsimikizira kuti aku Iran akutsatira - lidatsimikiza, ndikuvomereza mgwirizanowo.
Komabe, a Trump adalumbira kuti athetsa mgwirizanowu, ndi alangizi ake anenanso zomwe zidatuluka panthawi yovomerezeka. Koma, kupatulapo boma la Prime Minister waku Israeli a Binyamin Netanyahu ndi omutsatira, palibe amene akugwirizana ndi izi.
M'malo mwake, chiyembekezo choti Iran ipitiliza ulendo wake wopita ku kuphulika kwa zida za nyukiliya sichimanyalanyaza malingaliro onse komanso chidziwitso cha kusafalikira kwa zida za nyukiliya. Ngakhale oyang'anira a IAEA - omwe awonetsa kuti akuchita bwino komanso mozama mpaka pano - angapusitsidwe, kukakamizidwa ndi mayiko ena, ngati sikukhala ndi chidwi chogawana dziko lotetezeka, kumapatsa mayiko chilimbikitso champhamvu kuti asayese.
Mayiko monga Germany kapena Japan ali ndi luso lazachuma komanso luso lofunikira kuti apeze zida za nyukiliya m'miyezi yochepa chabe. Enanso ambiri atha kufika kumeneko mโzaka zoลตerengeka chabe. Koma maiko kuyambira ku South Africa kupita ku Argentina komanso Libya awonetsa kuti satengapo gawo, posayina Mgwirizano pa Kupanda Kuphatikiza kwa Zida za Nyukiliya (NPT). North Korea, yomwe mpaka pano yakana kutengera kukakamizidwa kwa mayiko, yalipira mtengo wokulirapo ngati dziko lapadziko lonse lapansi, lomwe latsamwitsidwa ndi zilango zachuma.
Kwa Iran, kuthawa zilango zazachuma - zomwe zikuchepetsedwa malinga ngati zilemekeza mgwirizano - zikadali zolimbikitsa kwambiri. Zowonadi, mpaka pano, Iran yasunga malonjezo ake, ngakhale atsogoleri ake amakhala ndi chizolowezi chokankhira malire, monga pomwe idayesa zida zoponya zapakati pa Januware.
Kuthetsa mgwirizano wa Unilateral ku US sikungakhale kosavuta. Kupatula apo, mgwirizanowu udachitika chifukwa cha zokambirana zomwe zidakhudza maulamuliro akuluakulu asanu ndi limodzi, kuphatikiza, modabwitsa, China ndi Russia. France, Germany, ndi United Kingdom - ogwirizana kwambiri ndi America ku Europe, omwe palibe amene angakayikenso zilango popanda chifukwa chomveka - nawonso adatenga nawo gawo. Ngakhale Saudi Arabia, yoyimira mayiko ena achiarabu, idavomereza monyinyirika. US Congress, yomwe idakanidwa poyamba, idabwera kwambiri.
Ambiri adziko lapansi akuwoneka kuti azindikira kuti iyi ndi imodzi mwazochitika zomwe wangwiro ndi mdani wa zabwino. Ndipo musalakwitse: mgwirizanowo ndi chinthu chabwino. Kugwa kwake kungayambitse mpikisano wa zida za nyukiliya mโdera losakhazikika kwambiri padziko lapansi.
Mdani wowawa kwambiri wa Iran, Saudi Arabia, adzayenda mofulumira ku mphamvu ya nyukiliya, pogwiritsa ntchito ma petrodollar ochuluka komanso chidziwitso cha Pakistani. Ena - Turkey, Kuwait, Egypt, ndi Algeria - sakanakhala kumbuyo. Kubetcherana kuti maiko awa, atapeza zida zotere, angachite bwino kukakhala kutchova juga kowopsa.
Kuonjezera chiwopsezo chomwe dziko la US likufuna kuti lichoke ku mgwirizano wa zida za nyukiliya, Iran pakali pano ikukumana ndi kusatsimikizika. Pamene Rafsanjani, kholo lankhondo laling'ono la Iran adamwalira mu Januware, maliro ake anali nthawi ya ziwonetsero zazikulu kwambiri m'mbiri ya Islamic Republic. Ndi a Khamenei okalamba omwe akudwala khansa, nkhondo yosankha mtsogoleri wamkulu siili kutali.
Ulamuliro wapano wa gulu laling'ono la Khatami ndi Rouhani udakali wovuta, ndipo omenyera ufulu wawo ambiri - kuphatikiza atsogoleri a Revolutionary Guards, Quds Force, ndi asitikali aku Iran - akufunitsitsa kupeza mphamvu. Ndi chuma kale ofooka kwambiri, kuyambiranso kwa zilango kungapereke mphamvu kwa anthu ochita monyanyira.
Mwachidule, dziko silingakwanitse kuthetsa mgwirizano wa nyukiliya wa Iran. Ngati Trump ayesa kuyambiranso America palibe awiri zakale ndi Iran, zotsatira zake zikhoza kukhala kuvina imfa.
Robert Harvey, membala wakale wa House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, ndiye mlembi wa Global Disorder ndi Mphuno Zochepa Zamagazi: Zowona ndi Zongopeka za American Revolution.
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1 Comment
Trump adawonetsa kusazindikira mgwirizanowu pomwe adanena kuti tidapatsa Iran $ 150 biliyoni. M'malo mwake, zomwe zidachitika ndikuti kuzizira kwa chuma cha Iran komweko kudachotsedwa. Palibe amene adapatsa Iran $$$. Zimalipira kudziwitsidwa. Zachisoni