Boris Kagarlitsky ndi katswiri wa zachikhalidwe cha anthu ku Moscow komanso mkonzi wa tsamba la socialist Rabkor (Wolemba Wantchito), yemwe zolemba zake zimawonekera pafupipafupi mu Chingerezi Kusagwirizana kwa Russia.
M'mafunso awa ndi Federico Fuentes, Kagarlitsky akuwunikira zomwe zidapangitsa kuti boma la Russia lipange chigamulo choukira Ukraine, chifukwa chake Purezidenti Vladimir Putin akufuna "nkhondo yosatha", gawo lofunikira lomwe likukhudzidwa ndi kumanzere pakukonza zotsutsana ndi nkhondo, komanso. ziyembekezo za kusokonekera kwa chikhalidwe cha anthu ku Russia. Mtundu waufupi kwambiri wa zoyankhulanazi zidawonekera koyamba Wobiriwira Kumanzere.
Zokambirana Kumadzulo zokhudzana ndi kuwukira kwa Putin ku Ukraine zangoyang'ana kwambiri kukulitsa kwa NATO, zokhumba zachifumu za Kremlin kapena thanzi la malingaliro a Putin. Koma inu mukutsutsa kuti palibe chimodzi mwa izi chinali mphamvu yayikulu yoyendetsa kuwukirako. Chifukwa chiyani?
Pakachitika chochitika chachikulu, monga nkhondo yaku Ukraine, pamakhala zinthu zosiyanasiyana zomwe zimaseweredwa. Koma muyenera kuyika zinthu izi muzochitika zenizeni za ndale ndi chikhalidwe cha anthu. M'lingaliro limenelo, zinthu zonsezi, pamodzi ndi mkangano wa nthawi yaitali pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine, komanso mkangano wapakati pa Ukraine ndi pakati pa akuluakulu a ku Ukraine, alipo. Komabe, izi sizimalongosola zambiri; ndi zachiphamaso kwambiri.
Tiyeni tiyambe ndi NATO. Kukula kwa NATO ndikowonadi. NATO sinangokulirakulira kumayiko omwe kale anali a Kum'mawa, monga Poland ndi Hungary; idakulanso kukhala madera omwe kale anali Soviet Union, monga Lithuania, Latvia ndi Estonia. M'lingaliro limeneli, NATO singakhoze kukulitsa mwaukadaulo kufupi ndi Russia, chifukwa malire ake ali kale ochepera ma kilomita 200 kuchokera ku St Petersburg. Sitiyeneranso kuiwala kuti m'zaka zoyambirira za ulamuliro wa Putin, Russia inali ndi ubale wabwino kwambiri ndi NATO. Putin mwiniwake adavomereza kuti akufuna kuti Russia ilowe nawo ku NATO. Anali a Kumadzulo omwe anakana umembala wa Russia pamene ubale unayamba kuwonongeka - ndendende chifukwa cha mkangano wa ku Ukraine ndi kuzungulira.
Komabe nthawi zonse zinali zoonekeratu kuti NATO sidzavomereza Ukraine ngati membala wathunthu chifukwa izi zidzabweretsa vuto lalikulu kwa NATO. Munjira zambiri, zikhumbo zaku Ukraine zolowa nawo ku NATO zidayambitsa mavuto ambiri ku NATO kuposa Russia, chifukwa zikutanthauza kuti Ukraine ikufuna kuti NATO iwononge ndalama zambiri pagulu lankhondo la Ukraine. Chodabwitsa ndichakuti kuukira kwa Putin ku Ukraine sikunangopangitsa kuti Sweden ndi Finland ajowine, koma tsopano zapangitsa umembala waku Ukraine kukhala wotheka. Mpaka pa February 24, mwayi wa Ukraine kukhala membala wathunthu unali kutali. Tsopano, zinthu zasintha, ndipo maganizo a Ukraine kukhala de facto dziko la NATO sizowona kwenikweni, zikukhala zenizeni. Kotero ngati tikufuna kuona nkhondoyi ngati mkangano pakati pa Russia ndi NATO, ndiye kuti n'zoonekeratu kuti ndondomeko za Putin zakhala zosagwirizana ndi zomwe zimaperekedwa ngati chifukwa cha nkhondo.
Pankhani ya Russia, kapena m'malo mwake zokhumba za Putin, izi zinaliponso: Muyenera kungoyang'ana kapena kumvetsera zabodza zaku Russia kuti muwone momwe zimapitilira malire onse okhudzana ndi jingoism ndi tsankho. Zofalitsa zaku Russia zimanena mosalekeza kuti Ukraine siyenera kukhalapo, gawo la Chiyukireniya ndilo gawo la Russia lomwe lagonjetsedwa ndi anthu aku Ukraine. Ikuti Russia imasula madera awa kwa anthu okhala kumeneko; kuti si anthu oyenerera m’gawo limenelo. Mitundu yonse ya tsankho, mawu a fascist amapangidwa panjira za boma. Ndi nkhanza zosaneneka, kudana ndi anthu ochokera kunja komanso chidani.
Tinganenenso kuti mkangano wamkati ku Ukraine ndi chifukwa cha nkhondo. Koma mkangano umenewu wakhalapo kwa zaka zisanu ndi zitatu, ndi kusintha kochepa kwambiri. Mikangano yosautsa imatha kupitilira, nthawi zina kwa zaka mazana ambiri, osayambitsa nkhondo. Pamene zitsogolera kunkhondo, zifukwa zenizeni za nkhondo sizipezeka m'mayambiriro a mkangano koma pazochitika zenizeni. Mwachitsanzo, talingalirani za mkangano wa Zisumbu za Malvinas/Falkland pakati pa Britain ndi Argentina, umene unakhalapo kwa zaka mazana ambiri. Kufotokozera chifukwa chake nkhondo idayambika mu 1981 sikupezeka komwe kudayambika nkhondoyi, koma m'mavuto amkati mkati mwa gulu lankhondo la Argentina, komanso, pamlingo wina, kufunikira kwa Margaret Thatcher kwa nkhani yachipambano kuti athandizire kusintha. zisankho. Choncho iyi inali nthawi yeniyeni yoti nkhondo iyambike: mbali zonse ziwiri zinkafunikira nkhondoyo pazifukwa zawo zapakhomo.
Choncho funso lenileni n’lakuti n’chifukwa chiyani nkhondoyi inayambika panopa, ngakhale kuti panali mavuto m’dziko la Ukraine komanso pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine kwa zaka zambiri. Ngakhale patangotsala sabata imodzi kuti nkhondo ichitike, akatswiri ambiri andale aku Russia amakayikira kwambiri kuti nkhondo ingayambike, chifukwa aliyense amadziwa kuti Russia sinakonzekere nkhondo. Izi zimatifikitsa ku nkhani osati ya thanzi la Putin, koma kuthekera kwake kupanga zisankho zomveka. Aliyense ankadziwa kuti nkhondoyo sidzachitika momwe idakonzedwera kapena kulengezedwa ndi gulu la Putin. Komabe iwo anapita kunkhondo. Izi zikusonyeza kuti anthuwa sankatha ngakhale kuwerengera zinthu zofunika kwambiri. Sindine katswiri wa zankhondo, koma ngakhale ine ndikanatha kulosera kuti Russia inalibe mwayi woti atenge Kyiv ndikupeza chigonjetso chonse. Inu munayenera kukhala wosakhoza konse kapena kuchotsedwa kwathunthu ku zenizeni kuti muganize mosiyana. Komabe zabodza zaboma zidanena zosiyana. Chabwino, zikuwonekeratu tsopano yemwe anali wolondola. M'lingaliro limeneli, thanzi la maganizo a Putin ndi momwe zisankho zimapangidwira ku Kremlin zinathandiza.
Ndiye munganene kuti n’chiyani chinayambitsa nkhondoyi?
Ndikuganiza kuti panali zifukwa ziwiri zazikulu.
Yoyamba ndi yapadziko lonse lapansi komanso yanthawi yayitali. Unali Kugwa Kwakukulu Kwambiri kwa 2007-8, komwe kunasintha chuma chapadziko lonse lapansi ndi momwe zinthu ziliri ku Russia mkati mwake. Kutsika kwachuma kunawonetsa kufooka kwakukulu kwachuma cha Russia. Komabe, panthawi imodzimodziyo, oligarchs a ku Russia anapindula nawo. Pamene kugwa kwachuma kunayamba, chuma cha Russia chinatsika mofulumira kwambiri kuposa chuma china chilichonse padziko lapansi. Kenako idachira msanga kuposa chuma chilichonse padziko lapansi. Chifukwa chiyani? Chifukwa chuma cha Russia chinali chodalira zipangizo, makamaka mafuta. Pofuna kuthana ndi Kugwa Kwachuma Kwakukulu, US Federal Reserve idayamba kusindikiza ndalama, zambiri zomwe zidathera m'misika yazachuma ndipo, pamapeto pake, monga ndalama zongoyerekeza. Mafuta ndi chinthu chabwino kwambiri chopangira ndalama zongoyerekeza, chifukwa cholumikizidwa kwambiri ndi misika yazachuma. Komabe, panthawi imodzimodziyo, ndi mbali ya chuma chenicheni. Chifukwa chake ndondomeko ya Federal Reserve idapangitsa kuti mitengo yamafuta ichuluke kwambiri, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti, pomwe chuma cha Russia chikupitilirabe kuipiraipira, Russia idasefukira mu petrodollars, ndipo ndalama zochulukirapo zimapita m'matumba a oligarchs ndi ma oligarchs. boma. Katswiri wina wa zachuma ku Russia ananenapo kuti bwenzi lapamtima la boma la Russia linali Federal Reserve. Boma la Russia linkadalira mwachindunji ndalama zosindikizidwa ndi Federal Reserve: ndalama zambiri zomwe Federal Reserve inasindikiza, anthu apamwamba aku Russia amapeza ndalama zambiri. Sanafunikire kuchita kalikonse kupatulapo kuyembekezera kuti Federal Reserve isindikize madola ambiri. Imeneyo inali njira yawo yonse. Koma Federal Reserve itayamba kusindikiza ndalama zochepa, kapena kuyamba kugwiritsa ntchito ndalamazi mwanjira ina, monga zidachitika pa COVID-19, izi zidakhala vuto ku likulu la Russia.
Zonsezi zinachititsa kuti ziphuphu zichuluke kwambiri. Russia nthawi zonse inali yachinyengo kwambiri, koma ziphuphu tsopano zafika pachimake. Akuluakulu aku Russia adakumana ndi vuto lalikulu lakuchulukirachulukira, monganso zomwe Rosa Luxembourg anafotokoza m'buku lake. Njira imodzi inali yopezera ndalama zowonjezera izi kuti zikulitse usilikali ndikupanga zida zambiri zankhondo, Koma ndiye muyenera kugwiritsa ntchito zida zankhondo izi mwanjira ina ngati mukufuna kupitilizabe kuyika ndalama zambiri mugawoli.
Koma iyi ndi mbali imodzi chabe ya nkhaniyi chifukwa, panthawi imodzimodziyo, zinthu zapakhomo zinali zovuta kwambiri. Ngakhale kuti ndalama zonsezi zinali kupita m'manja mwa anthu osankhika komanso gawo laling'ono la anthu apakati, chithandizo chamankhwala, ntchito zachitukuko, chithandizo chaumphawi - magawo omwe anali atalandira kale ndalama zochepa kwambiri - adachepetsanso ndalama zomwe adagwiritsa ntchito kuti opambana azipeza ndalama zambiri. . Chitsanzo chimodzi cha izi chinali kusintha kwa penshoni kwa 2018, komwe kunatsutsidwa kwambiri.
Tangoganizirani mmene nzika wamba ya ku Russia inamvera. Amadziwa kuti pali ndalama zambiri zomwe zikuyenda m'manja mwa oligarchy, akuluakulu aboma, oyang'anira akuluakulu, ndi abwenzi a Putin. Amatha kuwona kumangidwa kwa nyumba zachifumu zosaneneka - kuyiwala za Versaille ku France; pafupi pomwe ndili ndi yanga dacha [kunyumba yatchuthi], mutha kuwona makoma akulu akulu mukamayendetsa kuchokera kumeneko kupita ku Moscow. Kuseri kwa makoma amenewa ndi chiyani? Nyumba zachifumu. Tikudziwa izi chifukwa intaneti imakulolani kuti mupeze chilichonse. Nyumba zachifumuzi ndi zazikulu kuposa zomwe mungapeze ku Versaille. Ndipo izi zili m’dera lomwe anthu olemera amaona kuti ndi lachiwiri; sikuli ngakhale kumene oligarchs olemera kwambiri a ku Russia amakhala.
Chotero anthu amawona zimenezo ndi kuwona kuti mkhalidwe wakuthupi wa unyinji ukuipiraipira modabwitsa, kuti ndalama zenizeni zikutsika ndi mitengo ikukwera, kuti akukhala ndi vuto la kupeza ntchito zabwino. Zonsezi zimabweretsa kusakhutira kwakukulu. Kusakhutira kumeneku nthawi zambiri sikukhala pazandale, koma kumabweretsa chisangalalo choyipa. Mochuluka kotero kuti zakhala zovuta kwa mapulani ankhondo a boma la Russia, chifukwa silingathe kulimbikitsa anthu kuti apite kunkhondo. Anthu sadzamenyera ulamuliro umenewu. Palibe amene amafuna kudzimana chilichonse chifukwa cha iwo, chifukwa amadedwa ndi aliyense.
Pamwamba pa izi, muli ndi mfundo yoti mabungwe andale - ngakhale demokalase yabodza yomwe tinali nayo ndi zisankho zomwe zipani zomwe zinali pansi pa ulamuliro wa boma - zawonongedwa zaka ziwiri zapitazi chifukwa cha zoyesayesa za magulu a Putin kuti achite. phatikiza mphamvu. Putin akukalamba komanso akudwala kwambiri, choncho vuto la kusintha kwa mphamvu ndilowona kwambiri, koma mtundu uliwonse wa kusintha kwa mabungwe sikutheka pankhaniyi.
Ndiye mumathana nazo bwanji zonsezi? Chabwino, njira yabwino yothetsera vuto ndikubwera ndi mtundu wina wazovuta komanso zodabwitsa. Mkhalidwe womwe umapangitsa kuti pakhale ngozi, pomwe anthu omwe amapanga zisankho amatha kuthana ndi vuto lililonse la mabungwe kapena malamulo ndikupanga zisankho zilizonse zomwe akufuna kupanga. Ndipo nkhondo mwina ndiyo njira yabwino yopangira mkhalidwe wotero.
Poganizira zomwe mukunena za kusowa kwanzeru kwa Kremlin kuti apite kunkhondo, kodi pali lingaliro lililonse loti zolinga za Putin zili ku Ukraine, komanso ngati akufuna kukambirana ndi Ukraine kuti awapeze?
Kuwukirako kunali kokonzedwa bwino kwambiri ndipo kunalibe njira yanthawi yayitali kumbuyo. Boma litalephera kupanga njira zatsopano zoyendetsera nkhondo, n’zoonekeratu kuti anayamba kutulukira zifukwa ndi zolinga zankhondo pambuyo-facto. Tikulimbana ndi vuto losowa kwambiri lomwe dziko likuchita nkhondo yoopsa koma likuvutika kufotokoza zolinga zake kapena kuwafotokozera anthu. Izi zili choncho chifukwa anthu osankhika asokonezeka, sakudziwa choti achite ndipo akufunafuna njira yopulumukira. Koma pakadali pano sakupeza.
Vuto lalikulu tsopano siloti sakufuna kukambirana; Vuto lalikulu ndilakuti, ngakhale atachita zotani pokambirana, sangathe kugulitsa kwa anthu chifukwa cha kusakhutira komwe kulipo. Ichi ndichifukwa chake zimakhala zovuta kuti akuluakulu a ku Russia ndi boma la Russia akwaniritse kuthetsa. Sikuti angopanga mgwirizano ndi Ukraine ndi Kumadzulo, zomwe angachite. Ayenera kugulitsa malonda aliwonse omwe amapanga kwa anthu apakhomo, zomwe ndi zomwe sangachite. Ziribe kanthu momwe izi zithere, zibweretsa vuto lalikulu pamakhalidwe, ndale, malingaliro komanso, mwina, chipwirikiti mdziko…
Kuchokera pazomwe mukunena, kupitiliza nkhondo ndikoyenera kwa Putin kuposa zokambirana? Ndikufunsa izi chifukwa mkati mwa Kumadzulo kumanzere, ndizofala kumva kukangana kuti ndi NATO ndi Ukraine omwe akufuna kutulutsa nkhondo ndikukana zokambirana. Koma ndemanga zanu zikuwoneka kuti zikutsutsana ...
Mwamtheradi. Ichi ndichifukwa chake, m'mawu aposachedwa, a Putin adawulula kufunitsitsa kwake kuti atalikitse vutoli momwe angathere. Monga ndalembera, akhala akuwonekera momveka bwino za kuchita masewera olimbitsa thupi nkhondo yosatha zimene zimapitirira kosatha, m’mene mapangano safika konse, chifukwa sadziwa choti agwirizane. Ndipo, monga ndanenera kale, sichifukwa chakuti sanganyengerere kapena chifukwa chakuti sakufuna kunyengerera; ndichifukwa sangagulitse izi kwa anthu mdziko muno. Makamaka pamene kuwukirako kunapangitsa chidwi champhamvu cha jingoism ndi chisangalalo chenicheni cha nkhondo pakati pa gulu la anthu. Iwo anakwanitsa kugwirizanitsa kwambiri reactionary, aukali kwambiri, zinthu zoipa kwambiri za anthu Russian kumbuyo nkhondo. Vuto tsopano ndikuti zinthu izi zakhala zowopsa ngakhale kwa boma lokha, chifukwa panthawi yomwe boma likukambirana ndikukwaniritsa mtundu uliwonse wakukhazikika, nthawi yomweyo likhala chandamale champhamvu zotsutsanazi.
Izi zidawonekera kale mu Epulo, pomwe a msonkhano pakati pa nthumwi za Russia ndi Ukraine ku Istanbul adavomereza kukhazikika kwamtundu wina komwe kumaphatikizapo chilengezo cha Chiyukireniya kuti sichidzalowa nawo NATO. Ichi chinali chinthu chomwe Russia akanatha kugwiritsa ntchito kulungamitsa kuwukira kwake ndikulozera kuti chigonjetso. Koma pamene a ku Ukraine anali okonzeka kusaina, Russia sanasaine. Kuti timvetse chifukwa chake, tiyenera kuyang'ana zomwe zinachitika ku Russia. Tsiku lomwelo lomwe adalengeza pangano loyambirira ili, panali kuphulika kwenikweni kwa mkwiyo ndi chidani m'manyuzipepala ochirikiza boma, kupanduka kwenikweni kwa chipani chogwirizana ndi nkhondo, chomwe chinaphatikizapo kuopseza kupha okambirana. Poyankha, Russia idasiya mgwirizano. Poyang'anizana ndi mphamvu zochokera ku gehena zomwe adatulutsa, anthu a Putin adachita mantha.
Ndiye taganizirani kuti, kumbali ina, muli ndi malingaliro odana ndi nkhondo omwe ali amphamvu kwambiri, ngakhale ataponderezedwa kwambiri. Ulamuliro wa Putin wakhazikika kwambiri pakati pa thanthwe ndi malo ovuta, chifukwa muli ndi malingaliro amphamvu odana ndi nkhondo ndipo muli ndi gulu lovomereza nkhondo, jingoistic, militaristic, nationalist movement yomwe idzakhala yotsutsa nthawi yomwe boma lidzafika. kuthetsa.
Chochitika choipitsitsa kwambiri cha Putin - ndipo sichikuphatikizidwa kuti nthawi ina izi zikhoza kuchitika, makamaka ngati Russia ikugonjetsedwa ndi asilikali - ndikuti magulu awa, omwe ali osiyana kwambiri ndikutsutsana wina ndi mzake pa nkhani iliyonse, akhoza kuukira mwadzidzidzi. ulamuliro nthawi imodzi kuchokera mbali zosiyana. Izi n’zimene zinachitika ku Russia m’chaka cha 1917, pamene ulamuliro wa mfumuyo unagwa osati chifukwa cha asilikali odana ndi nkhondo, komanso chifukwa cha mkwiyo wa asilikali ndi boma amene sanasangalale ndi mmene nkhondoyo inkamenyera. . Asilikali awiriwa anaukira ulamuliro wa tsarist nthawi imodzi, zomwe zinapangitsa kuti ziwonongeke. Anthu a Putin akudziwa za mbiriyi, koma pali zochepa zomwe angachite nazo.
Ndikufuna kubwereranso ku gulu lodana ndi nkhondo ku Russia, koma ndikufuna kuti nditsatire mfundo yomwe mudadzutsa yokhudza magulu ankhondo akumanja omwe atulutsidwa ku Russia. Izi zikugwirizana ndi zokambirana za fascism ku Russia ndi Ukraine. Kodi mumakondera bwanji maboma aku Moscow ndi Kyiv komanso gawo lomwe anthu achifashisti kapena akumanja akumanja mkati kapena kunja kwa maboma awa? Kodi nkhondoyo yathandiza kukulitsa zizoloŵezi zimenezi kapena yatsegula mpata kwa mawu ena?
Mbali zonse ziwiri zimatsutsa mbali inayo kuti ndi yachifasisti, koma ndikuganiza kuti mbali iliyonse ndi yachifashisti. Izi zati, malingaliro a kumanja kwakutali, ndi zizolowezi zomwe zimakhala za mapiko amanja, komanso fascism, zilipo m'maiko onsewa.
Pankhani ya ndale ndi chikhalidwe chawo, mbali ziwirizi sizili zosiyana kwambiri. Inde, pali kusiyana. Mwachitsanzo, Ukraine ili ndi dziko lofooka kwambiri. Izi zimapanga malo omwe ufulu wakutali ungathe kuchita zinthu zopondereza zosayendetsedwa ndi boma, nthawi zina mothandizidwa ndi zinthu za chitetezo cha Chiyukireniya. Dziko la Russia sililola kuti zinthu zoterezi zichitike. Palibe zida kapena zida zopondereza zapadera chifukwa dziko la Russia lili ndi mphamvu zonse zopondereza. Ku Russia, kuponderezana kumakhala pakati, pomwe ku Ukraine kumagawidwa. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, mosiyana ndi Russia, Ukraine ili ndi gulu la anthu lomwe silinaponderezedwe, ndendende chifukwa dzikolo ndi lofooka. Boma silinapondereze anthu ku Ukraine chifukwa silingathe kuwapondereza ngati ku Russia.
Kusiyana kwina ndikuti oligarchy yaku Ukraine sinaphatikizidwe, pomwe oligarchy yaku Russia idaphatikizidwa mozungulira Putin - kapena mwina mpaka posachedwa. Oligarchy yaku Ukraine sinaphatikizidwe konse chifukwa inalibe mafuta ambiri kapena zinthu zina zomwe zitha kugulitsidwa pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi kuti zipeze ndalama zosavuta. M'malo mwake, oligarchs aku Ukraine adamenyana mwadongosolo. Izi zidapanga chithunzi cha Ukraine ngati demokalase yochulukirapo, zomwe siziri. M'malo mwake, ndi dziko lofooka lomwe lili ndi oligarchies opikisana, chinthu china chofanana ndi chomwe katswiri wandale Robert Dahl adachitcha. polyarchy.
Kotero pali kusiyana, koma sikusintha mfundo yakuti malingaliro a dziko la Russia ndi Chiyukireniya ndi ofanana kwambiri ndipo chikhalidwe cha chikhalidwe cha boma ndi capitalism m'mayiko onsewa ndi ofanana kwambiri. Onsewa amalamulidwa ndi oligarchic, peripheral capitalism.
Komabe, ndikofunikira kuzindikira kuti pali zizindikiro zabwino kwambiri ku Ukraine. Tiyeni timveke bwino, palibe njira yomwe mungakhalire ndi gulu lodana ndi nkhondo ku Ukraine. Zimenezi n’zomveka chifukwa dziko la Ukraine ndi limene likuukiridwa. Ndi wozunzidwa wa Russia. Mzinda wanu ukaphulitsidwa ndi mabomba tsiku ndi tsiku, simungatsutse asilikali anu omwe akulimbana kuti akutetezeni.
Koma pali chizoloŵezi chotsutsana ndi chikhalidwe cha Chiyukireniya pakati pa anthu a ku Ukraine komanso mkangano womwe ukukula wokhudza choti achite, ngati Ukraine ipambana. Ndi mkangano wokangalika komanso nthawi zina wamakani, momwe m'modzi mwa anthu osangalatsa kwambiri ali Oleksiy Arestovych. Iye ndi wochokera ku usilikali ndipo ndi mlangizi komanso wolankhulira Zelensky. Sindikudziwa kuti udindo wake ndi wamphamvu bwanji mkati mwa utsogoleri, koma wakhala wotchuka kwambiri, ku Russia ndi Ukraine. Arestovych akupitiriza kukankhira uthenga wokhudza mtundu wa Ukraine watsopano womwe uyenera kutuluka mu nkhondoyi: yomwe imagonjetsa magawano pakati pa kummawa ndi kumadzulo, pakati pa olankhula Chirasha ndi olankhula Chiyukireniya. Amalankhula za kufunikira koyenera chilankhulo cha Chirasha ngati chilankhulo cha Chiyukireniya, kulimbikitsa chikhalidwe cha Chirasha ku Ukraine, komanso kupereka chiyembekezo kwa iwo aku Russia omwe akufuna kukhala ndikugwira ntchito ku Kyiv. Akuti Ukraine yatsopano iyenera kuthana ndi magawano ndikuphatikiza aliyense.
Chifukwa cha izi, amawukiridwa mwadongosolo ndi mbali yakumanja, kuphatikiza kuwopseza iye ndi banja lake. Anthu a ku Ukraine amadana naye, koma ndi zochepa kwambiri zomwe angachite, chifukwa wakhala wotchuka, kuphatikizapo mkati mwa asilikali. Ndikofunika kuzindikira kuti pamzere wakutsogolo, gulu lankhondo la Chiyukireniya limapangidwa ndi olankhula Chirasha. Pamwamba pa izi, muli ndi Territorial Defense Force, gulu lankhondo lodzipereka lomwe lili ndi asitikali okwana 200,000 omwe akumenya nkhondo kum'mawa kwa Ukraine, omwenso amalankhula Chirasha. Chifukwa chake zikuwoneka kuti ndizotheka kuti dziko la Ukraine likhala ndi masinthidwe owopsa kwambiri potsata gulu lophatikizana nkhondo ikatha. Sizikuphatikizidwanso kuti ikhoza kukumana ndi mikangano yapachiŵeniŵeni - ngakhale nkhondo yapachiweniweni - koma ndichedwa kwambiri kuti tiweruze.
Tiyeni tsopano titembenukire ku gulu lodana ndi nkhondo ku Russia. Kodi bungwe lodana ndi nkhondo lili bwanji?
Nkhondo itayamba, ku Russia kunali zionetsero zambiri, koma zidawapondereza mwankhanza. Chowonadi ndi chakuti panalibe njira yomwe mungatsutse m'misewu, chifukwa nthawi yomweyo mungamenyedwe ndikuikidwa m'ndende. Makina opondereza aboma adakwanitsa kupambana msanga pankhondo yolamulira misewu, ngakhale adafunikira kuponderezedwa kwakukulu kuti akwaniritse izi. Ndikofunika kuti tisaiwale kuti pakhala pali zionetsero zazikulu, zomwe zikukhudza anthu masauzande ambiri, m'zaka ziwiri zapitazi, pamodzi ndi kuyesayesa kwa nthawi yaitali kwa zida zopondereza kuti awononge kayendetsedwe kameneka. Iwo anakwanitsa zimenezi kwa kanthaŵi.
Anthu tsopano atha kutumizidwa kundende chifukwa chongonena zapagulu zotsutsana ndi nkhondo. Kungogwiritsa ntchito mawu enaake kungatanthauze kuti mudzakumana ndi nthawi yandende. Iwo anaweruza wachiwiri kwa tauni ku Moscow kundende zaka zisanu ndi ziwiri chifukwa chongonena zotsutsa nkhondo panthawi ya khonsolo ya municipalities. Ndikasindikiza chinachake mu Chirasha, sindimagwiritsa ntchito mawu akuti nkhondo, chifukwa kungogwiritsa ntchito mawu akuti nkhondo kumatanthauza kuti ndikhoza kulandira chindapusa kapena ndende. Chotero mukhoza kulingalira mmene mlengalenga ulili.
Komabe, ngati muyang'ana pa malo ochezera a ku Russia, komwe mungatumize mosadziwika, mlengalenga ndi woipa kwambiri ku nkhondo. Anthu amatsutsa kwambiri ndipo amafalitsa malemba okwiya kwambiri otsutsana ndi nkhondo. Chifukwa chake gulu lodana ndi nkhondo ndilofooka kwambiri, koma lili ndi kuthekera kwakukulu.
Ndi mbali yanji yomwe gulu lamanzere lachita pakukonza zolimbana ndi nkhondo? Kodi mungatiuze chiyani za maudindo omwe atengedwa kunkhondo ndi chipani cha Communist cha Russian Federation?
Maphwando ovomerezeka mkati mwa Duma amathandizira nkhondo ndi ulamuliro, kuphatikizapo maphwando awiri omwe amadziyesa kuti ndi "mapiko akumanzere": Chipani cha Communist cha Russian Federation (CPRF) ndi otchedwa social democrats a A Just Russia. Koma ngati muyang’ana mozama, mukhoza kuona kuti kumene ali ndi anthu omenyera maudindo apamwamba, anthuwa nthawi zambiri amakhala odana ndi nkhondo. Ambiri aiwo akusiya maphwando awa. Ena alengeza poyera kutsutsa kwawo, monga Yevgeny Stupin, wachiwiri wachikoka komanso wodziwika bwino wa [CPRF] mu Moscow City Duma, kapena Andrei Danilov, wanzeru wosangalatsa komanso wotchuka wochokera ku Yakutia. Palinso atsogoleri atsopano omwe akutuluka, kuphatikizapo ochokera m’zipanizi. Inu, mwachitsanzo, Anna Ochkina, yemwe anali m'modzi mwa mawu akulu akumanzere mkati mwa A Just Russia koma adachoka pachipanicho, akulankhula poyera motsutsana ndi nkhondo. M’lingaliro limenelo, pamene kuli kwakuti atsogoleriwo akulankhula mokomera nkhondoyo, iwo samachirikizidwa ndi magulu amphamvu alionse apansi. Pansi, kumanzere ndi, sindiyenera kunena kuti ndi "chabwino" koma ndi moyo, ndipo ndithudi achangu ndi kukula.
Chinthu chimodzi choyenera kukumbukira ndi chakuti anthu ambiri ochokera m'magulu otsutsa a ufulu achoka m'dzikoli. Boma lidalengeza poyera ena mwa iwo kuti "ogwira ntchito zakunja". Aliyense akudziwa kuti chotsatira pambuyo polembedwa kuti ndi wothandizila wakunja ndikutsekeredwa m'ndende, chifukwa chake ambiri achoka. Andilemba ngati agent, ndimaganiza ndi cholinga chofuna ndichoke, koma sindichoka. Chochititsa chidwi cha ndondomekoyi chinali chakuti, pamene ambiri mwa atsogoleri otsutsa ufulu achoka m'dzikoli - kupatulapo ochepa, monga. Alexey Navalny, amene anali kale m’ndende, ndi Ilya Yashin, amene posachedwapa anaikidwa m'ndende - omwe akhala ku Russia ambiri akuchokera kumanzere. Kotero, chochititsa chidwi, kumanzere tsopano kukukhala ngati mphamvu ya hegemonic mkati mwa gulu lodana ndi nkhondo.
Gulu lodana ndi nkhondo ndilowona, ngakhale likukakamizika mobisa. Ndipo zikukula kwambiri, chifukwa anthu ayamba kumvetsetsa kuti sikuti nkhondoyi imangokhudza ndale komanso chikhalidwe cha anthu. Chizindikiro chochititsa chidwi kwambiri cha izi ndi chakuti zigawo zotsutsa zaufulu zomwe kale zinkakayikira kwambiri za mapiko akumanzere, tsopano zikuyenda kumanzere. Mwachitsanzo, Yashin posachedwapa adanena kuti anali ndi kusagwirizana kwina ndi Navalny chifukwa iye mwiniyo amadziwonetsera kuti ndi munthu wamanzere, zomwe zinali zodabwitsa kwa ife chifukwa nthawi zonse timaganiza kuti iye ndi womasuka. Chitsanzo china ndi Yulia Galyamina, munthu wachikoka kwambiri komanso wofunika kwambiri wotsutsa ufulu, yemwe posachedwapa adanena kuti mabwenzi ake apamtima mu gululi ndi achikomyunizimu. Kotero palidi kusintha kumanzere mkati mwa kayendetsedwe kake.
Pomaliza, ndikufuna kutembenukira ku cholinga cha Kumadzulo kwa Russia ndi nkhani yosintha maulamuliro. Mudalemba posachedwa kuti ngakhale atsogoleri akumadzulo "sadzalola kuti Russia apambane pankhondo ... safuna kwenikweni kuti boma la Russia lisinthe." Izi zikuwoneka kuti zikudula nkhani yayikulu Kumadzulo, ndipo ngakhale Kumadzulo kumanzere, kuti kumbuyo kwa zolinga za US mu nkhondo ya Ukraine ndikufooketsa Russia ndikulimbikitsa mtundu wina wa kusintha kwa boma. Chifukwa chiyani mukukhulupirira kuti sakufuna kusintha boma la Russia?
Chabwino, zimatengera zomwe mukutanthauza ndi kusintha kwa boma. Ngati mwa kusintha kwaulamuliro mumangotanthauza kusintha dzina la purezidenti, ndiye kuti ndizo zomwe West akufuna. Iwo akufunadi kuti Putin atule pansi udindo chifukwa Putin anapita patali, chifukwa Putin ndi wosadalirika, chifukwa Putin ndi poizoni ndipo, pamlingo wina, ndi wopenga kapena wosadziŵika bwino komanso woopsa. Chotero iwo akufuna kumuchotsa iye.
Koma kodi akufuna kuti dziko la Russia likhale la demokalase, lotseguka, lolamulidwa ndi anthu omwe si achinyengo komanso omwe amasamala za chitukuko cha dziko ndi zachuma? Ine ndithudi ndikukayika izo. Zomwe akufuna ndi Putinism popanda Putin. Angafunenso zosintha zazing'ono zodzikongoletsera, monga kuyika akatswiri azachuma omasuka m'boma, ngakhale, ziyenera kunenedwa, kuti boma likulamulidwa kale ndi akatswiri azachuma a neoliberal. Akadaulo onse azachuma, mkati ndi kunja kwa boma, amagawana malingaliro ndi njira imodzi pachuma. Onse amagawana malingaliro omwewo a Russia akuphatikizidwa mu chuma cha padziko lonse monga wogulitsa zipangizo ndi mphamvu, choncho amadalira kwambiri misika ya Kumadzulo.
Azungu akufunadi kuti Putin atsike pansi ndipo akuluakulu aku Russia akufuna chimodzimodzi - pali mgwirizano wonse pa izi. Pali vuto limodzi laling'ono chabe: Putin sasiya ntchito. Komanso, ngati ndipo pamapeto pake atatsika - mwanjira iliyonse yomwe izi zingatenge - sizidzakhala mapeto a nkhaniyi, monga momwe akuluakulu aku Western ndi Russia akuyembekeza; m'malo mwake kudzakhala chiyambi cha zovuta zakuya. Mwa ichi sindikunena za Russia kugwa; Ndikukamba za mikangano yamagulu ndi ndale mkati mwa Russia kuti ikhale ndi mphamvu ndi chikoka.
Kusintha kwenikweni kumatanthauza kutembenuza dziko la Russia kukhala dziko la demokalase, lomwe likulamulidwa ndi zofuna zapakhomo osati zofuna za misika yakunja, ndalama zakunja ndi ndalama za ku Russia kunja, zomwe ndi zofunika kwambiri kwa akuluakulu a ku Russia pankhani yosankha zisankho. Anthu aku Russia akufuna mtundu wina wa chitukuko chachuma ndipo anthu amamvetsetsa kuti izi ndizofunikira. Izi zikusemphana kotheratu ndi momwe anthu osankhika aku Russia ndi Kumadzulo akuganizira.
M’lingaliro lina, tili ndi mkhalidwe wofanana kwambiri ndi umene dziko la Russia linakumana nalo mu 1916-17, pamene zinawonekeratu kuti a British ndi Ajeremani adyetsedwa ndi mfumu. Izi zinapanga zinthu zachilendo kwambiri, chifukwa Ajeremani ndi British anali kumenyana wina ndi mzake, koma adagwirizana kuti Nicolas Wachiwiri apite. Ajeremani ankafuna izi chifukwa ankayembekezera kuti dziko la Russia lidzakambirana n’kutuluka m’nkhondoyo. Angerezi ankayembekezera kuti boma latsopano lipitirize nkhondoyo m’njira yogwira mtima kwambiri. Ngati mukukumbukira, Nicholas II adasiya ntchito ndipo kenaka kusintha kunayamba - chinthu chomwe sichinaganizidwe m'malingaliro a Germany kapena British.
Ndikuganiza kuti zomwe zikuchitika masiku ano ndi zofanana kwambiri: akufuna kuti Putin apite koma akufuna kuti boma likhalebe lokhazikika, ngakhale pangakhale vuto linalake la ulamuliro wa authoritarianism ku zomwe zinalipo 2020 isanafike. Kwenikweni, "kubwerera" kukhala wamba" popanda a Putin komanso opanda kuponderezedwa kopitilira muyeso komanso kumenya nkhondo monyanyira. Koma sizichitika choncho. Boma lidzagwa posachedwa kapena mtsogolo - ndipo mwina posachedwa. Zambiri zimadalira kunyansidwa kwa Chiyukireniya - ngati zichitika, zichitika liti komanso momwe zimachitikira. Izi zitha kutsogolera kusintha kwa ndale ku Russia. Sindinganene kuti izi zichitika motsimikizika, koma zitha, ngati chiwopsezo cha ku Ukraine chipambana.
Koma chofunikira ndichakuti palibe kubwereranso ku zomwe zidachitika kale. Ukraine ikumana ndi kusintha kwakukulu. Ndipo Russia idzasintha kwambiri. Monga comrade wa ku Belarus posachedwapa anandiuza, ife - kutanthauza anthu a ku Russia, a Belarus, tonsefe omwe kale anali a Soviet Union ndi anthu omwe kale anali achifumu a Russia - tili ndi mwambo wabwino: Nthawi zonse tikaluza nkhondo, timayamba kusintha kwakukulu kapena kusintha.
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