Ndi chinthu chimodzi kuyankha pagawo pomwe vuto la ku Ukraine likukulirakulira ndipo Washington - mopanda nzeru, osadziwa zomwe zichitike - awononga ubale ndi Moscow. Ndi chinanso, monga kusinthana kwanthawi yayitali ndi Stephen F. Cohen kukuwonekera momveka bwino, kuwona ngati ntchito yolemekezeka yaukadaulo yaukadaulo imayikidwa pambali mokomera chinyengo chosaloledwa, nkhondo yolimbana ndi nkhondo ya Hearst ndi zomwe Cohen ali pakati pa magulu ankhondo. Kukula kwakukulu kwa gawo lachikoka - NATO - m'mbiri.
Cohen ndi Russian wolemekezeka mwa muyeso uliwonse. Pamene akudzinenera ku Princeton ndi New York University, adalemba za zaka zachisinthiko ("Bukharin ndi Revolution ya Bolshevik," 1973), nthawi ya Soviet ("Rethinking the Soviet Experience," 1985) ndipo, motsutsa koma mochititsa chidwi komanso nthawi zonse. diso lokhazikika, zaka makumi angapo pambuyo pa Soviet ("Nkhondo Yolephera: America ndi Tsoka la Post-Communist Russia, 2000; "Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives," 2009). "Ozunzidwa Abwereranso: Opulumuka ku Gulag Pambuyo pa Stalin" (2010) ndi ntchito yaumunthu imodzi, pogwiritsa ntchito njira yaukatswiri kulongosola nkhani za akaidi akale omwe amayenda ngati mizukwa ku Russia pambuyo pa Soviet. “Sindinataye m’chenicheni mkhalidwe wachisoni wa kusiya ntchito ndisanamalize ndi mathayo osakwaniritsidwa,” Cohen akufotokoza motero m’mutu woyamba, “ngakhale kuti ovulala omwe ndinawadziŵa anali ocheperachepera.”
Ngati ndikanati ndifotokoze mphamvu ndi mtengo wa ntchito ya Cohen mu chiganizo chimodzi, zikanakhala izi: Ndi kukakamira kosalekeza kuti tiyenera kubweretsa mbiri kuti igwirizane ndi zomwe tikuwona. Wina angaganize kuti iyi ndi pulojekiti yabwino kwambiri, koma yapangitsa Cohen kukhala mayi wa mikangano yonse yanzeru kuyambira pomwe US idawukira boma ku Kiev chaka chatha. Kunena kuti tsopano ndi "blackballed" kapena "blacklisted" -mawu omwe Cohen sakonda - ndizochuluka. Tiyeni tisiye kuti akhale ndi malo pakati pa aneneri ambiri aku America opanda ulemu pakati pawo.
Ndizosadabwitsa kuti Unduna wa Kuyiwala, womwe umatchedwanso dipatimenti ya Boma, ungakane malingaliro a Cohen pa Ukraine ndi ubale ndi Russia: Amabweretsa zochuluka kwambiri chifukwa cha chifukwa chake komanso udindo wake pamlanduwo. Koma akatswiri azamaphunziro akamamutsutsa ngati "Putin's apologist" munthu amakhala wodekha poganiza zobwerera ku nthawi ya McCarthyist. Pakali pano, anthu omvera a m’sukuluyi asintha mkangano kukhala chionetsero chachilendo.
Cohen, yemwe ali ndi zaka 76, ali ndi masewera onse ndipo amakumbukira zonse, sakuganiza kuti tabwerera m'ma 1950. Koma tsopano ali wotanganidwa ndi nkhondo ndi Association for Slavic, East European and Eurasian Studies, yomwe m'dzinja yatha inakana thandizo la $ 400,000 lomwe Cohen adapempha ndi mkazi wake, Katrina vanden Heuvel, chifukwa mayanjano omwe adzalandire ndalama adzakhala ndi dzina la Cohen. Khulupirirani, owerenga, izi ndife kumayambiriro kwa zaka za zana la 21.
Mafunso otsatirawa adachitikira m'chipinda cha Cohen's Manhattan patatha milungu ingapo mgwirizano woletsa kuphana wotchedwa Minsk II udasainidwa mkati mwa February. Inafalikira kwa maola angapo opatsa chidwi. Pamene ndinkagwira ntchito ndi zolembazo zinaonekeratu kuti Cohen wandipatsa chikalata chofunika kwambiri, chomwe chinapangitsa kuti owerenga awerenge mwachidule, chodziwika bwino, chodziwika bwino cha mbiri yakale "komwe tili lero," monga momwe Cohen ananenera, ku Ukraine ndi ku US. - Russia mgwirizano.
Salon idzayendetsa magawo awiri. Ichi ndi cholembedwa chosinthidwa choyamba. Gawo lachiwiri likutsatira sabata yamawa.
Kodi mukuganiza bwanji pakuchitapo kanthu kwa Russia ku Ukraine? M'mikhalidwe yamakono, chosowa ndi mbiri yabwino komanso chilankhulo chomveka bwino. M'mbiri yakale, kodi mumaona kuti Russia ndi yolungama?
Chabwino, sindingathe kuganiza mosiyana. Ndinayamba kuchenjeza za vuto ngati limeneli zaka zoposa 20 zapitazo, m’zaka za m’ma 90. Ndakhala ndikunena kuyambira February chaka chatha [pamene Viktor Yanukovich anachotsedwa ntchito ku Kiev] kuti 1990s ndi pamene chirichonse chinalakwika pakati pa Russia ndi United States ndi Ulaya. Chifukwa chake mufunika mbiri yochulukirapo, zaka 25. Koma, ndithudi, imayamba ngakhale kale.
Monga ndanenera kwa nthawi yoposa chaka chimodzi, tili mu Cold War yatsopano. Takhala mu umodzi, ndithudi, kwa zaka zoposa khumi. Lingaliro langa [kwanthaŵi ndithu] linali lakuti United States mwina inali isanathe Nkhondo Yamawu yapitayo, ngakhale kuti Moscow inali itatero, kapena inaipanganso ku Washington. Anthu aku Russia anali asanachitepo kanthu mpaka posachedwapa chifukwa sizinawakhudze mwachindunji.
Zomwe zachitika ku Ukraine mwachidziwikire zatilowetsa m'zatsopano kapena zatsopano, olemba mbiri asankhe kuti - Nkhondo Yozizira, koma yomwe ikhala yowopsa kwambiri kuposa yoyambayo pazifukwa ziwiri kapena zitatu. Epicenter sikuli ku Berlin nthawi ino koma ku Ukraine, kumalire a Russia, mkati mwa chitukuko chake: Ndizowopsa. Pazaka 40 za mbiri yakale ya Cold War, malamulo a khalidwe ndi kuzindikira kwa mizere yofiira, kuwonjezera pa hotline yofiira, anapangidwa. Tsopano palibe malamulo. Timaona zimenezi tsiku lililonse—palibe malamulo kumbali zonse.
Chomwe chimandipweteka kwambiri, palibe kutsutsa kwakukulu ku United States ku Cold War yatsopanoyi, pomwe m'mbuyomu kudali otsutsa. Ngakhale mu White House mungapeze wothandizira pulezidenti yemwe anali ndi maganizo osiyana, ndithudi mu Dipatimenti ya Boma, ndithudi mu Congress. Ofalitsa anali otseguka—New York Times, Washington Post—kuti akambirane. Iwo salinso. Ndi dzanja limodzi kuwomba m'manyuzipepala athu akuluakulu komanso mumawayilesi athu. Kotero ndi pamene ife tiri.
Mavuto aku Ukraine mu mbiri yakale. Malo owopsa kwambiri. Inu mukudziwa izi kuposa aliyense, ine ndimaganiza.
Apa ndi pamene ndimamenyedwa ndi kumenyedwa. Ndi chiweruzo cha mbiriyakale. [Mavuto tsopano] adakula kuchokera ku mfundo za Clinton, zomwe ndimatcha "wopambana atengere zonse" mfundo zaku America ku zomwe zimaganiziridwa - koma izi sizowona - kugonjetsedwa pambuyo pa Cold War Russia, kutsogolera anthu mu '90s. kuganiza za Russia m'njira zina zofanana ndi Germany ndi Japan pambuyo pa Nkhondo Yachiwiri Yadziko Lonse: Russia idzasankha ndondomeko zake zamkati pamlingo wina, ndipo idzaloledwa kuyambiranso udindo wake monga boma pazochitika zapadziko lonse - koma ngati bwenzi laling'ono likutsatira. zatsopano za dziko la America.
Izi zinali kufunafuna Clinton ndi Strobe Talbott, amene tsopano wakhumudwa kwambiri ndi kulephera kwa ndondomeko yake, mu nthawi ya Yeltsin. Izi ndi zomwe ankafuna, ndipo ankaganiza kuti akupeza, kuchokera kwa Boris Yeltsin. Mutha kuwerenga memoir ya Talbott, "The Russia Hand," ndikudziwa kuti nkhani zonse zaubwenzi wamuyaya ndi mgwirizano zinali zoipa. Tsopano zonse zakhala zowawa, zoneneratu komanso pazifukwa zosiyanasiyana, ndipo zatifikitsa ku izi.
Vuto ndilakuti potengera malingaliro, monga atolankhani aku America ndi mabungwe andale amachitira, kuti vutoli ndi chifukwa cha "nkhanza za Putin," palibenso kukonzanso mfundo zaku America pazaka 20 zapitazi. Sindinaonepo munthu m'modzi wamphamvu akunena kuti, "Eya, mwina tachita cholakwika, mwina tiyenera kuganiziranso china chake." Ndilo njira yopezera zofananira, inde, ndipo zambiri zomwezo zitha kutanthauza nkhondo ndi Russia….
Ndiroleni ndikupatseni chitsanzo chimodzi. Ndi chinthu chovuta kwambiri kwa osankhika azamalamulo aku America komanso osankhika atolankhani kuti apirire.
Udindo wathu ndikuti palibe amene ali ndi ufulu wochita zinthu m'zaka za zana la 21. Russia ikufuna gawo lachikoka chifukwa sichikufuna zida zankhondo zaku America ku Ukraine kapena ku Baltics kapena ku Georgia. Koma kukula kwa NATO ndi chiyani kupatula kukulitsa madera aku America kapena gawo lachikoka? Sinkhondo chabe. Ndi ndalama, ndi zachuma, ndi chikhalidwe, ndi maukwati apabanja —asilikali, zomangamanga. Ndiko mwina kukula kochititsa chidwi kwambiri kwa gawo lalikulu lachikoka mu nthawi yochepa komanso nthawi yamtendere m'mbiri ya dziko lapansi.
Chifukwa chake muli ndi Wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti Biden akunena nthawi zonse, "Russia ikufuna gawo lamphamvu ndipo sitingalole." Chabwino, tikukankhira gawo lathu lachikoka pakhosi la Russia, poganiza kuti silibwerera m'mbuyo. Mwachiwonekere, kukambitsirana kungayambike bwino: “Kodi Russia ili ndi ufulu wokhala ndi chigawo kapena malo oyandikana nawo opanda magulu ankhondo akunja?” Basi, palibenso china. Ngati yankho liri inde, kukulitsa kwa NATO kuyenera kutha ku Eastern Germany, monga momwe aku Russia adalonjezedwa. Koma ife tazembera moyandikira pafupi. Ukraine ndi pafupi NATO-kukulitsa-palibe kanthu-chiyani. Washington ikhoza kupitiriza za demokalase ndi ulamuliro ndi zina zonse, koma ndizomwezo. Ndipo sitingatsegulenso funso ili…. Chinyengo, kapena kulephera kulumikiza madontho ku America, nzodabwitsa.
Chikhalidwe cha ulamuliro wa Kiev. Apanso, pali chifunga chambiri. Kotero pali magawo awiri ku funso ili. Nkhani yachiwembu ndi ubale wa boma la Yatsenyuk ndi dipatimenti ya Boma - tsopano tili ndi nduna ya zachuma ku Kiev yemwe ndi nzika yaku America, akulankhula ndi Council on Foreign Relations pano pomwe tikulankhula - kenako ubale wa boma la Kiev ndi ultra. -chabwino.
Ndi funso lapakati. Ndidalankhula m'chigawo cha Nation chaka chatha chotchedwa "Distorting Russia." Mfundo imodzi inali yakuti otsutsa atolankhani ku boma la Kiev pamene linayamba kulamulira pambuyo pa Feb. 21, ndi ziwonetsero za Maidan pamene adakhala achiwawa, adanyalanyaza udindo wa kagulu kakang'ono koma kofunikira ka ultra-nationalists omwe amawoneka, amanunkhiza. ndipo zinkamveka ngati neo-fascists. Ndipo chifukwa cha izi ndinamenyedwa kwambiri, kuphatikizapo Timothy Snyder ku Yale, yemwe ndi wokonda kwambiri Kiev, ku New Republic. Sindikudziwa komwe akuchokera, kapena momwe pulofesa aliyense anganenere zomwe ananena. Koma mkangano unali wakuti mutu wa neo-fascist uwu unali wa Putin, kuti zomwe ndinali kunena zinali kupepesa kwa Putin komanso kuti a fascists enieni anali ku Russia, osati ku Ukraine.
Mwinanso ku Russia kuli ma fascists, koma sitikuthandizira boma la Russia kapena ma fascists aku Russia. Funso ndilo, ndipo ndilofunika kwambiri, "Kodi pali gulu la neo-fascist ku Ukraine lomwe, mosasamala kanthu za kupambana kwake pamasankho, lomwe silinakhale lalikulu, likukhudzidwa ndi ndale kapena zankhondo, ndipo kodi ichi ndi chinthu chomwe tiyenera kuda nkhawa nacho? ”
Yankho ndi 100 peresenti inde. Koma kuvomereza zimenezi mu United States kwapeza ayi mpaka posachedwapa, pamene, pomalizira pake, manyuzipepala angapo anayamba kutchula zankhondo za Kiev zokhala ndi ma swastika pa zipewa zawo ndi akasinja. Chifukwa chake mwapeza zambiri. Atolankhani akunja, kusiyapo anthu aku Russia, afotokoza za neo-fascist izi, zomwe sizodabwitsa. Imakula kuchokera ku mbiri yakale ya Ukraine. Liyenera kukhala funso lofunika kwambiri la ndale kwa opanga ndondomeko za Kumadzulo, ndipo ndikuganiza kuti tsopano ndi za Ajeremani. Nzeru zaku Germany mwina ndizabwinoko kuposa zanzeru zaku America zikafika ku Ukraine-zowonekera kwambiri pazomwe zimauza utsogoleri wapamwamba. Merkel akuda nkhawa kwambiri ndi izi.
Ndi chitsanzo china cha chinthu chomwe simungakambirane pazofalitsa zazikulu kapena kwina kulikonse kukhazikitsidwa kwa America. Mukawerenga umboni wa [Mlembi Wothandizira wa Boma] Nuland, izi sizinatchulidwe konse. Koma ndi chiyani chomwe chingakhale chofunikira kwambiri kuposa kuyambiranso kwa gulu lachifasisti ku kontinenti ya Europe? Sindikunena za sappy fascists awa omwe amayenda mozungulira misewu ku Western Europe. Ndikunena za anyamata omwe ali ndi zida zambiri, anyamata omwe adachita zoyipa komanso kupha anthu. Kodi izi zikuyenera kukambirana? Chabwino, anthu amati, ngati alipo, ndi ochepa. Yankho langa lachidule nlakuti, “Zowonadi, Hitler analinso chimodzimodzi ndi Lenin panthaŵi ina.” Mumatchera khutu ndikuganiza za izi ngati muphunzira chilichonse kuchokera m'mbiri….
Tikunena kuti tikuchita zonse zomwe tikuchita ku Ukraine komanso motsutsana ndi Russia, kuphatikizapo kuthamanga pachiwopsezo chankhondo, ku Ukraine ya demokalase, yomwe tikutanthauza Ukraine pansi paulamuliro wa Kiev. Moyenera, tingafunse kuti Kiev ilidi demokalase mpaka pati. Koma mtolankhani wa Times ndi Washington Post nthawi zonse amatumiza mafayilo kuchokera ku Kiev ndikulembanso chilichonse chomwe akuluakulu aboma aku Kiev amanena nthawi zambiri, ngati afunsapo za demokalase ku Ukraine yomwe ikulamulidwa ndi Kiev.
Kulembanso zolemba. Kodi ndi choncho?
Mpaka posachedwa zinali choncho…. Sindinapangepo kafukufukuyu, ndipo wina atha kuchitidwa mkati mwa sabata ndi mtolankhani waluso kapena katswiri yemwe amadziwa kufunsa mafunso komanso kudziwa zambiri. Ndipo ndingakhale wololera kuti ziwonetsere kuti pali demokalase yochepa, monga momwe zimamvekera, m'madera a Ukraine omwe akulamulidwa ndi Kiev lero kuposa momwe zinalili Yanukovych asanagwe. Tsopano ndiye lingaliro, koma ndikuganiza kuti ndi lingaliro lomwe Times ndi Post iyenera kuwunika.
Ndimatenga mawonekedwe a Kiev pankhondo yake kumadera akum'mawa ngati "nkhondo yolimbana ndi zigawenga" kuti ikhale imodzi mwamalemba ovuta kwambiri pakali pano.
Koma, ndiye, chifukwa chiyani Washington adanena kuti zili bwino? Washington ili ndi zonena pa izi. Popanda Washington, Kiev akanakhala m'khothi la bankirapuse ndipo alibe asilikali konse. Chifukwa chiyani Washington sananene kuti, "Osatcha kuti anti-zigawenga?" Chifukwa mukachitcha "anti-terrorism" simungakhale ndi zokambirana chifukwa simumakambirana ndi zigawenga, mumangowapha, gulu lakupha ndi cholinga chakupha.
Mwa kunena kuti iyi si nkhondo yapachiŵeniŵeni, ndi chiwawa cha ku Russia chabe—izi zikusiya mbali ya anthu ya nkhondo yonseyo, ndiponso bungwe la anthu amene akumenyanadi kum’maŵa—ometa tsitsi, oyendetsa taxi, nyuzipepala yakaleyo. atolankhani, aphunzitsi a sukulu, anthu otaya zinyalala, akatswiri a zamagetsi, amene mwina 90 peresenti ya amene akumenyana. Pali anthu aku Russia, ochokera ku Russia. Koma asitikali aku Ukraine awonetsa kuti sangathe kugonjetsa kapena kuyimitsa zomwe zidayamba ngati gulu lankhondo, quasi-partisan, opanda zida, osaphunzitsidwa.
Zowopsya za izi zakhala kugwiritsira ntchito kwa Kiev zida zake, matope komanso ngakhale ndege zake, mpaka posachedwapa, kuti awononge mizinda ikuluikulu yokhalamo, osati Donetsk ndi Luhansk okha, koma mizinda ina. Awa ndi mizinda ya 500,000, ndikuganiza, kapena 2 miliyoni mpaka 3 miliyoni. Izi ndi zotsutsana ndi lamulo. Izi ndi milandu yankhondo, pokhapokha tikuganiza kuti zigawengazo zimaphulitsa amayi ndi agogo awo ndi abambo ndi alongo awo. Uyu anali Kiev, mothandizidwa ndi United States. Chifukwa chake United States yatenga nawo gawo kwambiri pakuwononga mizinda ndi anthu akummawa awa. Nuland atauza Congress kuti anthu 5,000 mpaka 6,000 afa, ndiye nambala ya UN. Ndiwo chiwerengero cha matupi omwe adawapeza kumalo osungiramo mitembo. Matupi ambiri sapezeka. Anzeru aku Germany akuti 50,000.
Chiyambireni olamulira a Clinton, takhala tikudandaulira za ufulu woteteza anthu omwe akukhudzidwa ndi zovuta za anthu. Muli ndi vuto lalikulu lothandizira anthu kum'mawa kwa Ukraine. Muli ndi anthu 1 miliyoni kapena kupitilira apo omwe athawira ku Russia - izi ndi zomwe bungwe la UN likunena - theka la miliyoni linathawira kwina ku Ukraine. Sindikuwona United States ikukonzekera ntchito yayikulu yothandiza anthu. Ali kuti Samantha Power, womanga "ufulu woteteza?" Tatseka maso athu ku vuto lothandizira anthu lomwe tili okhudzidwa kwambiri. Izi ndizochititsa manyazi, kaya mumakonda kapena simukukonda Putin. Palibe chochita ndi Putin. Zimakhudzana ndi chikhalidwe cha ndondomeko ya America ndi chikhalidwe cha Washington-ndi chikhalidwe cha anthu a ku America, ngati alekerera izi.
Mwalemba za mgwirizano wachiwiri wa Minsk ngati chiyembekezo chokha chomwe tatsala nacho. Ndiuzeni mwachidule zomwe mungatenge pa Minsk II komanso ngati pali mwayi womwe ungakhalepo.
Mgwirizano wachiwiri wa Minsk uli ndi magawo ambiri osuntha. Gawo loyamba ndikusiya kuwomberana ndikuchotsa mbali zonse za zida zankhondo zolemera. Zikuwoneka kuti izi zatheka kwambiri, koma kuyimitsa moto sikukhazikika. Magawo a ndale akuyenera kubwera tsopano. Kiev ikuyenera kupititsa patsogolo kusintha kwa malamulo, kupereka ufulu wina kumadera akummawa. Madera akummawa akuyenera kuchita zisankho zatsopano zomwe mwanjira ina zimagwirizana ndi malamulo a Ukraine. Zonse zikachitika pofika Disembala, ndiye kuti malire a Ukraine ndi Russia aperekedwa kwa akuluakulu a Kiev pamodzi ndi oyang'anira aku Europe. Magawo a ndale adzakhala ovuta kwambiri chifukwa palibe chithandizo cha ndale pa izi ku Kiev.
[Pulezidenti] Poroshenko anapita ku Minsk chifukwa analibe chochita: Merkel anamuuza kuti akuyenera kusaina Minsk II. Koma Kiev ndi ultra-nationalist. Safuna kuvomereza kummawa kapena ku Russia. Kupeza Minsk II kudzera mu nyumba yamalamulo ku Kiev kudzakhala kovuta kwambiri. Koma chowonadi chachikulu pakadali pano ndikuti Minsk II ndiye chisankho chomaliza, chabwino kwambiri chopewa nkhondo yayikulu yomwe ingayambitse nkhondo yachindunji ndi Russia. [Kuyambira kuyankhulana uku nyumba yamalamulo ku Kiev yakhazikitsa malamulo otsutsana kapena otsutsa mawu a Minsk II.]
Minsk II inali njira ya Merkel ndi Purezidenti Hollande wa ku France, ndipo chifukwa chiyani, pa mphindi yomaliza, adazindikira mwadzidzidzi kuti zinthu zinali zosiyana ndi zomwe ankaganiza-zosimidwa-sindikudziwa. Ndipo kumbukirani, uyu ndi mayi yemwe ali ndi udindo waukulu pamavuto azachuma ku European Union ndi Greece. Adani a Minsk II…
Ndikuganiza kuti mdani wamkulu ndi Washington.
Ndichoncho. Sindingawatche adani, koma sitingakhale ana pa izi. Washington imayang'anira IMF. Washington imayang'anira NATO. NATO ndi IMF ndi mabungwe awiri omwe angapangitse nkhondo kuti ichitike ku Ukraine komanso ku Russia, kapena kuimitsa. Aliyense amene ali wosankha ku Washington, ngati ali Obama, ngati ali munthu wina, tsopano ayenera kupanga chisankho.
Adani onse a Minsk II amalankhula momasuka ndipo amatchulidwa m'mapepala ndi pa intaneti ngati anthu oganiza bwino. Ndipo komabe palibe liwu limodzi lotsutsana ndi kukhazikitsidwa. Kunja, kumawoneka ngati kulimbana kosagwirizana kwambiri. Wina akuyembekeza kuti kwinakwake m'makonde amdima ndi zipinda zowoneka bwino ku Washington, zokambirana zazikulu zikuchitika, koma sindikuganiza choncho. [M'mwezi wa Marichi 23, mamembala 48 a Congress adavota kuti asatumize zida ku Kiev, mfundo yomwe Cohen adayamikiridwa mu imelo.]
Ndale zathu za pambuyo pa Soviet pambuyo pa 1991, zidakhala nkhondo mwa njira zina. Nkhondo Yapakamwa sinathe, m’malingaliro mwanga. Machenjererowo adasintha, mwinanso njirayo idasinthanso, koma panali pang'ono ngakhale kaye kaye.
Ndizovuta. Vuto lalikulu masiku ano lopangitsa gulu la ndale zaku America kuganiza mwatsopano ndi Putin. Amagwiritsa ntchito Putin ngati chifukwa chochitira chilichonse chomwe akufuna komanso osaganiziranso chilichonse. Koma Putin adabwera pambuyo pake.
Mbiri yakale si yabwino kwa nkhani yopambana, yomwe imati tinagonjetsa Soviet Union ndipo potero inathetsa Cold War, choncho ndi choncho. Malinga ndi kunena kwa Gorbachev, Reagan ndi Bush, Nkhondo Ya Mawu inatha kaya mu 1988 kapena 1990. Pamene Reagan anachoka ku White House—ndikuganiza kuti analemba m’buku lake la zochitika mu January 1989 kuti, “Tathetsa Nkhondo Yamawu” —chotero anaganiza kuti wathetsa. anamaliza ndi Gorbachev. Ndinali ku Moscow pamene anawoloka Red Square m’kutentha kumeneko, ndikuganiza kuti munali July 1988, ndipo winawake anafuula kwa iye “Pulezidenti Reagan, kodi uwu udakali Ufumu Woipa?” Ndipo iye, mwa njira yoteroyo, anati, “O, ayi, izo zinali pamenepo… chirichonse chasintha.”
Cold War inali chochitika chokhazikika. Chifukwa chakuti pulezidenti wanena kuti kutha kwake sikukutanthauza kuti kwatha, koma kunali Malta mu December 1989, pamene [George HW] Bush ndi Gorbachev adanena kuti Cold War yatha, ndipo izi zinapitilira kugwirizanitsanso Germany. Pakati pa 88 ndi 90 tinauzidwa mobwerezabwereza ndi atsogoleri a dziko kuti zatha. Jack Matlock, kazembe wa Reagan ku Russia, adalemba bwino kwambiri za izi, komanso chifukwa analipo ngati umboni waumwini, momwe izi zinaliri. Chifukwa chake chisokonezo cha kutha kwa Soviet Union ndi kutha kwa Cold War ndi cholakwika chambiri.
Bush ndiye adapitilizabe kusunga mzere womwe adatsata ndi Gorbachev kuti palibe otayika kumapeto kwa Cold War, aliyense adapambana. Bush adasungabe udindowo mpaka zisankho zikuwonetsa kuti akuthamangira kumbuyo kwa Clinton pa kampeni yake yosankhanso. Kenako adalengeza mu 1992 kuti ife, ndipo iye makamaka, tapambana Cold War. Ndinawona Gorbachev posakhalitsa pambuyo pake. Ine ndi mkazi wanga, Katrina vanden Heuvel, takhala mnzanga kwa zaka zingapo. Anakhumudwa kwambiri, ali ndi malingaliro operekedwa. Wamukhululukira Bush, pokhala munthu wokhululuka.
Koma panthawiyo, '91 ndi '92 ... Polengeza kuti tapambana Cold War, Bush adayambitsa chisankho cha boma la Clinton kuti achitepo kanthu pa kupambana kwa America, kuphatikizapo kukulitsa NATO.
Mbiri imeneyi ikutifikitsa pamene tili lero.
Ndi chiyani chomwe chasintha mu mfundo za US ku Russia pakati pa 1991 ndi tsopano, ndipo ndi chiyani chomwe sichinasinthe?
Ndikuganiza mbiri yomwe tikuidziwa ndi yomwe ndangokuuzani kumene. Kuseri kwa ziwonetserozo, panali zokambirana zomveka bwino m'ma 90s, ndipo panali magulu osiyanasiyana. Zosankha zazikulu za mbiri yakale, kaya tikukamba za nkhondo ku Vietnam, kapena, nkhani yomwe imandisangalatsa, chifukwa chiyani ukapolo ndi tsankho zinakhala nthawi yaitali ku America South, kumene ndinakulira, sizingafotokozedwe ndi chinthu chimodzi. Pafupifupi nthawi zonse amakhala amitundu yambiri. Koma muli ndi, mu 1990s, anthu ena omwe amakhulupirira moona mtima kuti ino inali nthawi yokhazikika ya Nkhondo Yozizira, American-Russian, mgwirizano wanthawi zonse komanso ubwenzi pakati pa anthu ofanana. Panali za Romantics izi, titero kunena kwake.
Kumbali iyi ya nyanja?
Ndikuganiza kuti panali anthu omwe amakhulupirira izi. Monga ngati pali anthu amene amakhulupiriradi kukwezeleza demokalase monga ntchito yabwino—ena mwa ophunzira anga alowamo. Iwo amakhulupirira: Ndi chinthu chabwino. Bwanji osathandiza mayiko abwino kuti akwaniritse demokalase? Mbali yamdima yokwezera demokalase kwa iwo mwina siyikuwoneka kapena ayi pakuwerengera kwawo. Anthu ndi osiyanasiyana. Sindimawaweruza mwankhanza chifukwa cha zikhulupiriro zawo.
Panali ena omwe anali kunena kuti Russia idzaukanso, ndipo tiyenera kuonetsetsa kuti sizichitika. Kuti tichite izi, tifunika kulanda Russia ku Ukraine, makamaka. Brzezinski anali kulemba zimenezo. Panthawi ina panthawiyi analemba kuti Russia ndi Ukraine ndi mphamvu yachifumu, popanda Ukraine ndi dziko labwino. Koma panali anthu ku Washington, anthu omwewo omwe ndidawamva m'makambirano amseri, akunena kuti Russia ili pansi ndipo tiletsa. Iwo anali kudyetsa maganizo mu kayendetsedwe ka Clinton, ndipo izi zinathandiza kuti NATO ikule.
Amagwiritsa ntchito chifukwa choti aliyense akufuna kulowa nawo ku NATO. Tingawakanize bwanji zoyenera? Ndi zophweka kwambiri. Anthu amati dziko lililonse lomwe lili ndi ufulu wolowa nawo ku NATO. Ayi, samatero. NATO si bungwe laling'ono lazamalonda. Sichibale chosasankha kapena matsenga. Ndi bungwe lachitetezo, ndipo njira yokhayo yopezera umembala iyenera kukhala yakuti, “Kodi dziko limalimbikitsa chitetezo cha mayiko ena omwe ali membala?” Vuto la ku Ukraine likutsimikizira mosakayikira, pokhala vuto lalikulu kwambiri padziko lonse la nthawi yathu, kuti kuwonjezeka kwa NATO kwasokoneza chitetezo chathu padziko lonse lapansi. Ndiko kutha kwa nkhaniyo. Sindikudziwa zomwe akuganiza kuti NATO ndi. Zili ngati umembala wa AARP ndipo mumapeza kuchotsera ngati ndalama zachitetezo zaku US? Ndi misala, mkangano uwu.
Koma ndiye muli ndi anyamata awa omwe mwina a Russophobes kapena Cold Warriors osatha kapena oganiza mozama. Mukukumbukira pamene [Paul] Wolfowitz adalemba nkhaniyi kuti Russia idayenera kulandidwa mwayi uliwonse kuti ikhalenso mphamvu yayikulu? Anthu onsewa anali kuyankhula ngati...
Zimabwereranso pakuyerekeza kwanu ndi Japan mu '45.
Funso ndichifukwa chake Clinton adagula izi. Izi zitha kukutengerani ku Strobe Talbott. Strobe anali wophunzira wa Yesaya Berlin, yemwe anaphunzitsa kuti ngati mukufuna kumvetsa Russia, muyenera kumvetsa mbiri yakale, chikhalidwe ndi chitukuko. Ndipo ndithudi ngati mutatenga maganizo amenewo, simukanachita, monga George Kennan adanena mu 1996 kapena 1997, simukanakulitsa NATO. Ndinamudziwa George pazaka zanga 30 ku Princeton. Makhalidwe a George anali owopsa kwambiri, koma ponena za Russia anali ndi lingaliro lofunika kwambiri. Russia ikuguba kwa woyimba ng'oma yake, lolani, musayese kulowererapo kapena mupangitsa kuti zinthu ziipire. Khalani oleza mtima, mumvetsetse mbiri ya Russia, mphamvu zaku Russia. Umenewo unali udindo wa Isaiah Berlin. Nthawi ina, amenewo anali malo a Strobe. Yang'anani ku Strobe Talbott lero: Tiyenera kutumiza zida ndikugwetsa Putin ndikutembenuza Russia. Tsopano zonse ndi zakunja.
Kodi munthu uyu adachoka bwanji A kupita ku B?
Chabwino, amati mphamvu imawononga, kapena imasintha anthu. Anakhala mnzawo wa Clinton ku Oxford, ndipo adakamaliza ku White House ngati wothandizira ku Russia, munthu wanzeru kwambiri. Ndikuganiza kuti Russia idamukhumudwitsa. Chodabwitsa chimodzi pakati pa owonera aku Russia ndikuti mumapanga zaluso, ndiye Russia yanu. Ndipo zikakukhumudwitsani, simukhululukire Russia. Onani Fred Hiatt ku Washington Post. Fred anali kulemba kuchokera ku Moscow m'zaka za m'ma 90 kuti demokalase idzakhala yabwino. Momwemonso anyamata ambiri omwe tsopano adakali m'maudindo a ukonzi. Russia inawakhumudwitsa. Sangakhululukirenso Russia kuposa momwe angachitire ndi mkazi wakale yemwe adawanyenga. Sangaganize mwatsopano. Ndi chodabwitsa, mwina osati American yekha, koma makamaka American. Simungatsegulenso zokambirana zilizonse ndi anthu awa omwe adagula ku Yeltsin's Russia mzaka za m'ma 1990 ndipo anali otsimikiza kuti ngakhale msewuwu unali wamiyala, chifukwa amakonda kunena… "Nkhondo Yolephera" ndi iyi. Iwo sangakhoze kuthetsa izo.
Zina mwa izo zinalinso zokhudzana ndi Yeltsin. Anali wosimidwa kwambiri, osati kutsimikizira kwa America kokha komanso chikondi cha America. Anali wosatetezeka kwambiri, pamene thanzi lake linachepa ndipo anakhala wogwidwa ndi oligarchs, moti ankafuna kutanthauza zambiri ku Washington monga Gorbachev anali nazo. Anali pafupi kupatsa Washington chirichonse, kunena chirichonse, mpaka nkhondo ya Serbian. Kenako zinamuonekera kuti Washington anali ndi ndondomeko inayake, ndipo kukula kwa NATO [kunali mbali yake], koma panthawiyo kunali kuchedwa, anali ndi mphamvu.
Pambuyo pake, pamene Dmitri Medvedev anali pulezidenti [2008-12], ndikuganiza, anauza gulu la anthu kuti Yeltsin sanapambane chisankho, chimene Gennadi Zyuganov, mtsogoleri wa Chipani cha Chikomyunizimu, anali nacho. Kotero poganiza kuti Medvedev sanali kunama ndipo akuganiza kuti ali ndi mwayi wodziwa, zokambirana zonsezi za chithandizo cha America ku demokalase, zikafika ku Russia, ndizo, tinganene, zovuta.
Tiyeni tipite ku Putin. Maganizo anu ndi otani apa? Kodi akuyesera kukwaniritsa chiyani?
Ndizosatheka kuyankha mwachidule kapena mophweka. Awa ndi maphunziro apadera akuyunivesite, ili ndi buku, ili ndi la munthu yemwe ali ndi ubongo wokulirapo womwe ndili nawo. Izi ndi zoona kuti olemba mbiri aweruze.
Ndinalemba nkhani, ndikuganiza, 2012 yotchedwa "Demonization of Putin," ndikutsutsa kuti pali zifukwa zochepa zomwe zimatsutsa Putin, ndipo zotsatira zake zinali kupanga kusanthula koyenera ku Washington pa nkhani za Russia. kunyumba ndi kunja kosatheka, chifukwa zonse zidasefedwa ndi ziwanda izi. Ngati sitisiya, ndinatsutsa, zidzangoipiraipira mpaka pamene tidzakhala ngati heroin panthawi yake, osatha kuganiza za china chilichonse kupatula kutengeka kwathu ndi Putin. Sitinathe kuganizira za nkhani zina. Izi tsopano zachitika kwathunthu. Nkhaniyi idakanidwa ndi New York Times, ndipo mkonzi yemwe ndimamudziwa ku Reuters adayifalitsa pa Reuters.com.
Mbiri ya momwe izi zidachitikira [zikuyamba] pamene Putin adayamba kulamulira, molimbikitsidwa ndi Yeltsin ndi anthu ozungulira Yeltsin, omwe anali ogwirizana ku Washington. Anthu awa ku Moscow akuphatikizapo Anatoly Chubais, yemwe ankayang'anira zachinsinsi, anali ndi ubale ndi IMF ndipo adalimbikitsa ziphuphu zambiri. Anabwera ku United States kudzatitsimikizira kuti Putin anali wa demokalase, ngakhale kuti anali a KGB.
Atayamba kulamulira, a Times ndi Post adalemba kuti Putin anali wa demokalase ndipo, bwino kwambiri, anali woganiza bwino, mosiyana ndi Yeltsin. Momwe tidachokera ku 2000 mpaka pano, pomwe ali Hitler, Saddam, Stalin, Gaddafi, aliyense yemwe tiyenera kumuchotsa, yemwe timamudziwa adapha Boris Nemtsov chifukwa kuchokera pamlatho pomwe Nemtsov adaphedwa [pa February 27] mutha kuwona Kremlin…. Chabwino, kumbukirani, Sarah Palin amatha kuona Russia ali ku Alaska! Ndi zopusa. Koma ziwanda za Putin zakhala bungwe ku America. Ndi bungwe la ndale lomwe limaletsa zokambirana zomwe inu ndi ine tikukhala nazo.
Kissinger analinso ndi lingaliro lomwelo. Iye analemba, chaka chatha, ndikuganiza, "Kuwononga ziwanda kwa Putin si ndondomeko. Ndi alibi chifukwa chosowa ndondomeko. " Ndizo zolondola mwatheka. Ndizoipa kwambiri tsopano, chifukwa anali ndi ndondomeko. Ndikuganiza kuti "ndondomeko" yomwe ikukula m'maganizo ena inali momwe angachotsere Putin. Funso nlakuti, “Kodi ali ndi mphamvu zopanga zisankho?” Sindinaganize choncho, koma tsopano sindiri wotsimikiza, chifukwa zambiri zomwe zimatuluka ku Washington, kuphatikizapo Dipatimenti ya Boma, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti Putin ayenera kupita.
Ndinafunsa mwachidwi zaka zingapo zapitazo za osintha maulamuliro awa: Kodi mumaganizira zomwe zingachitike ku Russia ngati boma litasintha? Ngati zomwe mukunena ndi zoona, ngati Putin ndiye maziko a dongosolo lonse, mumachotsa Putin dongosolo lonse likugwa. Russia ili ndi zida zonse zodziwika bwino zowononga anthu ambiri. Kodi zotsatira za kudzikuza kwanuko zingakhale zotani - kuti tichotsa Putin - padziko lonse lapansi?
Kotero chodabwitsa ichi cha Putin chiyenera kufotokozedwa. Kodi adachoka bwanji ku demokalase motsimikiza, tsopano mwina mtsogoleri woyipa kwambiri waku Russia kuyambira Ivan the Terrible. Mukuzifotokoza bwanji? Kodi izi zimatiuza zambiri za Putin kapena zambiri za ife?
Ndikuganiza kuti tchimo lake ndilosavomerezeka, mawu omveka bwino, Eastern ethos vs. Western ethos, komanso pamagulu ochepetsetsa kukana ulamuliro wa neoliberal wachuma mu kalembedwe ka Washington. Ngakhale ali ndi zambiri zoti ayankhire, ndikuganiza, pankhaniyi, iye si mlaliki pa zomwe akuchita. Kodi amakumana ndi chiyani kunyumba? Kodi iye akuyesera kuchita chiyani?
Ndiroleni ndikuuzeni mwachidule. Ndikafunsa anthu aku Russia, amaganiza kuti yankho lake ndi nsanje ya pulezidenti waku America. Takhala ndi apulezidenti ambiri omwe sanachite bwino posachedwapa. Clinton adachoka mwamanyazi, Bush adasiya osakondedwa pankhondo yomwe adatitengera ndikunama, Obama ali pamaso pathu pulezidenti wocheperako, wolephera. Ndipo pano ndi Putin, yemwe tsopano ali m'chaka chake cha 15 chakukula mu Russia.
Ndipo mwa njira, mpaka posachedwa mtsogoleri wamkulu wa ku Ulaya wa nthawi yake, mosakayikira izi. M'zaka za zana la 21, ndi Merkel yekha amene angaime paliponse pafupi ndi iye ngati nduna ya ku Europe, kaya mumakonda zomwe wandale amachita kapena ayi. Izi, ndithudi, zimasintha chirichonse. Osati kutenga wapolisi wotchuka, koma mbiriyakale iweruze. X chiwerengero cha zaka kuchokera pano, pamene ife talowa ambiri, monga Lenin ankakonda kunena, akatswiri a mbiriyakale mosakayikira adzayang'ana mmbuyo ndi kuchita pluses ndi minuses, ndipo kudzakhala kuyitana pafupi kwambiri.
Kwa kanthawi kochepa chabe kwa Putin, adapatsidwa mphamvu zopulumutsa banja la Yeltsin ku milandu ya katangale, ndipo lamulo loyamba lomwe adasaina atakhala pulezidenti wotsogolera linali loti banja la Yeltsin lisamayimbidwe mlandu. Iye wazilemekeza izo, mwa njira. Mmodzi mwa ng'ombe zotsutsana ndi Putin ku Russia ndikuti ndi wolemekezeka kwa abwenzi ake ndi omwe amawaika monyanyira; iye sangakhoze kudzibweretsera yekha moto aliyense. Ali ndi code yaulemu ya KGB iyi. Ndimakonda. Ndikanakonda kuti anthu akubayeni kumbuyo kwanu….
Ndimagwira ntchito poganiza kuti mosasamala kanthu kuti anthu ayamba bwanji kapena chifukwa chiyani, ali ndi mphamvu amayamba kuganizira za ntchito yawo, zomwe mbiri imawafunsa. Kwa Putin zinali zomveka bwino: Dziko la Russia lidagwa kawiri m'zaka za zana la 20. Imani ndi kulingalira tanthauzo lake. Inagwa mu 1917 Revolution ndipo Soviet Union siinagwe mu 1991 - idadulidwa - koma boma lidagwa ndipo zotsatira zake zidakhala zomwe anthu aku Russia amatcha. mutu, nthawi ya mavuto. Amatanthauza masautso; zikutanthauza kuwukira kwachilendo; zikutanthauza nkhondo yapachiweniweni; zikutanthauza kuti anthu amagwa mu umphawi. Iyi ndi Russia yomwe Putin adatengera. Kumbukirani, pamene adayamba kulamulira mu 2000, dziko la Russia linali pafupi kugwa kachitatu chifukwa cha ndondomeko za Yeltsin. Olamulirawo anali achinyengo, sanali kumvera malamulo, sanali kukhoma misonkho, anali kuchita zigawenga m’madera ambiri. Russia inali pachiwopsezo chachikulu, NATO ikukula, Russia inalibe mphamvu pazochitika zapadziko lonse lapansi.
Putin akuyamba kulamulira ndipo akuwona kuti ntchito yake yoyamba iyenera kukhala yoletsa kugwa kwa dziko la Russia-limene amatcha loyimirira, chifukwa Russia nthawizonse yakhala ikulamulidwa kuchokera pamwamba mpaka pansi, zomwe zapangitsa kuti zisalamulire chifukwa ndi zazikulu kwambiri- ndi. , koposa zonse, kuwonetsetsa kuti ayi, konse, nthawi zimachitika kachiwiri. M'mbiri ya Russia, choyipa kwambiri chomwe chingachitike ku Russia ndi mutu, pamene boma likugwa. Imani ndi kuganiza: Pakati pa 1917 ndi 1991, zinachitika kawiri m'dziko lalikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi. Kodi pali chitsanzo chilichonse cha zimenezi m'mbiri? Mtsogoleri angayambe bwanji kulamulira koma osawona zimenezo….
Chigawo chachiwiri cha zokambiranazi chidzachitika sabata yamawa.
Patrick Smith ndi mlembi wa "Nthawi Yatha: Achimereka Pambuyo pa Zaka Zazaka za ku America." Iye anali mkulu wa ofesi ya International Herald Tribune ku Hong Kong ndiyeno Tokyo kuyambira 1985 mpaka 1992. Panthawiyi analembanso "Letter from Tokyo" ya New Yorker. Iye ndi mlembi wa mabuku anayi am'mbuyomu ndipo wathandizira pafupipafupi ku New York Times, Nation, Washington Quarterly, ndi zofalitsa zina. Tsatirani iye pa Twitter, @thefloutist.
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