COLOR MAP ya mafuko aku Iran ndi minda yamafuta:
http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/KHUZESTAN.gif
Pamene magulu awo ankhondo akuchulukirachulukira ku Iraq, George W. Bush ndi Tony Blair akuyala maziko a nkhondo yawo yotsatira, pafupi ndi Syria kapena Iran.
Kulimbana kwawo ndi Iran, makamaka, kwakhala kale m'makhadi. Zaka zitatu zisanachitike nkhondo ya Iraq, Project for the New American Century inati Iran "zitha kuwonetsa chiwopsezo chachikulu ku zofuna za US ku Gulf monga momwe Iraq ilili. "
Pamene atolankhani aku US amafotokoza za kulimbana komwe kukukulirakulira ndi Iran, nthawi zonse imayang'ana kwambiri pulogalamu yanyukiliya ya Tehran, kukambirana kwa atsogoleri aku Iran ndi Israeli, komanso momwe mavuto onse akunja akulimbitsira dzanja la anthu aku Iran omwe amatsutsana ndi osintha "okhazikika".
Komabe chidwi chochepa sichinaperekedwe ku gawo lomwe mafuko ang'onoang'ono angakhale nawo pavuto la Iran, makamaka la ochepa a Iranian Arabu, omwe ali m'chigawo chakumwera chakumadzulo kwa Khuzestan. Zomwe zidachitika m'chigawo cholemera ndi mafuta chomwe chili kumalire ndi Iraq zitha kukhala ngati chisonyezero cha zolinga za US-British ku Iran, ndikuwulula Khuzestan ngati Achilles Heel waku Iran. Posachedwapa, kuphulika kwa mabomba ndi mikangano yamitundu yambiri yayamba kusonyeza kuti chinachake chavunda ku Khuzestan, chomwe chingakhale chenjezo loyambirira la nkhondo yomwe ikubwera.
Mwezi watha wa June, yemwe kale anali woyang'anira zida za UN, Scott Ritter, anachenjeza kuti US ikupanga zida zankhondo ku Azerbaijan, kumalire a kumpoto kwa Iran, ndikuthandizira kuphulika kwa mabomba ku Iran. Zolepheretsa kuwukira kwathunthu ku Iran poyang'ana koyamba zikuwoneka ngati zazikulu. Monga momwe Ivan Eland adanenera, "kuukira Iran kungapangitse mathithi amagazi ku Iraq kuwoneka ngati pikiniki. Iran ili ndi pafupifupi kanayi gawo komanso kuwirikiza katatu kuchuluka kwa anthu aku Iraq. Komanso, dera la Iran ndi lamapiri kwambiri kuposa la Iraq ndipo lili bwino kwambiri pomenyera nkhondo za zigawenga.โ
Komabe ngati mikangano ya mafuko m'chigawo cha Khuzestan chitha kugwiritsidwa ntchito bwino ndi US ndi Britain, atha kuganiza kuti kusokoneza kapena kuwukira kochepa kuyika chigawo chachikulu chamafuta ku Iran m'manja mwa Azungu. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, ziyembekezo za kuwukira zitha kukulirakulira, chifukwa Bush akuganiza kuti ikhoza kukhala "ntchito yokwaniritsidwa" mosavutikira kuposa kugonjetsa Iran konse. Bush ndi a Blair amagwiritsa ntchito ziyembekezo za nkhondo yapachiweniweni kulungamitsa kupitiliza kwawo ku Iraq (ngakhale zochita zawo m'malo mwake zikuwoneka kuti zikuyambitsa nkhondo yapachiweniweni ku Iraq). Iwo salinso pamwamba pa kuyambitsa mikangano yapang'ono yamitundu kuti ifike ku Iran.
Ganizirani za Khuzestan ngati "Kuwait-Inside," yomwe ili ndi mafuta ambiri aku Iran omwe ali m'chigawo chaching'ono. Monga ku Iraq, Nigeria kapena Colombia, mafuta ambiri ali pansi pa maiko a anthu ochepa omwe adazunzidwa kale. Ma Arab Shi'ite okhala m'zigwa za kumadzulo kwa Khuzestan amagawana zamitundu yawo komanso chikhulupiriro chawo ndi ma Arab Shi'ite ambiri kudutsa njira yamadzi ya Shatt al-Arab ku Iraq. Arabu amapanga 3% yokha ya anthu aku Iran, koma ambiri (kapena ochulukirapo) pafupifupi 3 miliyoni ku Khuzestan (omwe ma Arabu amawatcha "Ahwaz" kapena "Arabistan"). Mafuko a Luri ndi Bakhtiari olankhula Chiarani amakhala m'mapiri a Zagros chakum'mawa. Aperisi amakhalanso mโmizinda ikuluikulu ya zigawo, monga Abadan, Khorramshahr, Ahvaz, Dezful, ndi Bandar-e Khomeini.
Pivot Yofunikira
Kwa zaka mazana ambiri, Khuzestan wakhala gawo lalikulu la mbiri ya Iran ndi chuma chake. Khuzestan unali likulu la chitukuko cha Elamu, ndipo likulu lake linali Susa. Idadzazidwa ndi zitukuko ndi mafuko ambiri, kuphatikiza Ufumu wa Perisiya mu 539 BC, ndipo nthawi zambiri imagwira ntchito ngati malire pakati pa maufumu. Arabu ochokera ku Basra adalanda chigawochi mu 642 AD, ngakhale nthawi zambiri chimalamulidwa ndi Perisiya.
Mu 1897, ufumu wa Britain unathandizira olamulira achiarabu a Khuzestani kuti apatuke ku Perisiya ndikukhala olamulira. de A facto Chitetezo cha Britain cha "Arabistan" (monga momwe a British adachitira ku Kuwait yoyandikana nayo). Chigawo chonse cha kumโmwera kwa Perisiya chinalengezedwa kukhala โgawo la chikokaโ cha Britain mu 1907, ndipo chaka chotsatira munthu wina woyenda ulendo wa ku Britain anapeza mafuta ku โArabistan,โ ku Masjed Soleyman. Kutulukira kumeneku kunayambitsa kampani ya Anglo-Persian Oil Company, yomwe pambuyo pake inadzatchedwa British Petroleum (BP). Mu 1925, asilikali a Reza Shah adatenganso "Arabistan," ndipo adautcha Khuzestan, monga adatcha "Persia" monga Iran zaka khumi pambuyo pake.
Asilikali a ku Britain analanda Khuzestan pa nthawi ya nkhondo yachiwiri ya padziko lonse, koma nkhondoyo itatha, anthu a ku Irani anayamba kuda nkhawa kwambiri kuti anthu a kumadzulo ndi amene amawononga chuma chawo. Mu 1951, mtsogoleri wa dziko la Iran, Mohammed Mossadegh, adakhazikitsa makampani amafuta makamaka ku Khuzestan (kuphatikiza ndi Anglo-Irani), zomwe zidakwiyitsa mayiko aku Western. Patatha zaka ziwiri, chiwembu chopangidwa ndi CIA chinachotsa Mossadegh, ndikuyika Shah Reza Pahlevi watsopano, yemwe adatsegula Khuzestan kuti alandire mafuta aku US-British.
Mu 1978, ogwira ntchito pamafuta aku Arabu ku Khuzestan adanyanyala kumenyana ndi Shah, ndipo adatenga nawo gawo lalikulu mu Revolution ya Iran yomwe idamugwetsa chaka chotsatira. Iwo adathandizira poyera kusinthaku m'miyezi yake yoyambirira, pomwe idaphatikizira otsalira ndi maphwando ena akudziko (omwe pambuyo pake adaphwanyidwa ndi Islamic Republic). Polimbikitsidwa ndi maulamuliro aku Western omwe adawopsezedwa ndi zigawengazi, Saddam Hussein adayambitsa kuwukira koopsa ku Khuzestan mu 1980, ndipo adalanda dera lawo lakumadzulo kwa Arabu. Anayesa kukonza kugawanika kwa chigawocho kuchokera ku Iran, ndipo adathandizira gulu lachigawenga la Arabiya (lomwe linagwiranso mwachidule Embassy ya Iran ku London).
Komabe pankhondo ya Iran ndi Iraq, ma Shi'ite ambiri aku Iran adamenya nawo nkhondo kumbali ya Iran yomwe inkalamulidwa ndi Perisiya, monga momwe ma Arab Shia aku Iraq adamenyera kumbali ya Iraq yolamulidwa ndi Sunni ya Saddam. Dera laboma lidakulitsa madera onse amitundu ndi zipembedzo, kuphana kwakukulu kodzaza ndi nkhondo zankhondo komanso kuwukira kwa "mafunde a anthu", kuphulitsa kwa ndege ndi kuombera kwa mizinga, komanso kugwiritsa ntchito zida za mankhwala mbali zonse ziwiri. Asilikali aku Iran adakankhira ma Iraqi kunja kwa Khuzestan mu 1982, koma mizinda ya chigawocho ndi malo oyenga mafuta ndi omwe adawonongeka kwambiri pankhondoyi, yomwe idatha mu 1988. kuperekeza zombo zonyamula mafuta aku Iraq, ndi kugulitsa mizinga kwa aku Iran.)
[Mwawona mapa Pano.]
Dziko la Iran silinalowererepo pa nkhondo ya Gulf ya 1991, yomwe idachitika ku Khuzestan. Nkhondo itatha, a US adalola Saddam kuti aphwanye kupanduka kwa Iraq Shi'ite pafupi ndi Khuzestan, poopa kuti a Shi'ite-ambiri omwe akulamulira Iraq adzakhala satellite ya Tehran. Komabe ngakhale Ayatollah Sistani waku Iraq anabadwira ku Iran-ndipo mizinda yopatulika kwambiri ya chi Shi'ite ya Karbala ndi Najaf ili mkati mwa Iraq-atsogoleri achipembedzo achi Shi'ite ku Iraq sakonda dziko la Irani lomwe lingasokoneze unyamata wawo ku chipembedzo.
Tehran adatsutsa kuwukira kwa US ku Iraq mu 2003, ngakhale zinali zokondwa kuwona kugwidwa kwa Saddam. Kusiyanitsa kwa mfundo za US ndi Iran zikuyimira ngati buku labwino lazandale pazankhondo. Washington idalanda Iraq, idataya osachepera asitikali a 2,000, idagwedezeka ndi zigawenga zomwe zidakula, ndipo zidawona chikoka chake (ndi omwe amawakonda) akukanidwa ndi ma Iraqi. Mosiyana ndi izi, Tehran adawona mdani wawo wamkulu wachiwiri akuchotsa mdani wake wamkulu, adalangiza ogwirizana nawo aku Iraq kuti achite nawo ntchitoyo kuti omwe akufuna kuti apikisane nawo athe kuchita zisankho, kenako adawona zipani za Shi'ite zikuyamba kulamulira - onse osawombera. .
Zatsopano za Rumblings
Mu 2005, mkangano pakati pa ma Shi'ite aku Iraq ndi magulu ankhondo wakula kwambiri, makamaka m'dera la Britain lomwe lili ndi mafuta ambiri kuzungulira Basra. Ziwawa zingapo zakhala zikuloza modabwitsa ku Khuzestan yoyandikana nayo ngati (kachiwirinso) njira yabwino kwambiri yothetsera mikangano kumalire a Iran-Iraq.
Ku Basra pa Seputembala 19, asitikali aku Britain adalimbana ndi apolisi aku Iraq komanso asitikali achi Shi'ite, omwe adalandira modabwitsa kugwa kwa Saddam zaka ziwiri zapitazo. Apolisiwo adagwira makomando awiri obisala ku Britain omwe anali ndi zida zokayikitsa zopangira mabomba. Asitikali aku Britain adaukira ndendeyo kuti amasule antchito awo, kumenyana ndi apolisi aku Iraq omwe adawaphunzitsa kale. Anthu aku Iraq adaganiza kuti ndizodabwitsa kuti nthumwi zaku Britain zitha kugwidwa ndi mitundu ya bomba lomwe likugwirizana ndi zigawenga zomwe zikuukira asitikali a "Coalition", ndipo ena amaganiza kuti nthumwizo zimayesa kusokoneza magulu achipembedzo aku Iraq.
Komabe nthawi yomweyo, mabomba anali kuwoloka malire a Khuzestan. M'mwezi wa June, kuphulika kwa magalimoto angapo ku Ahvaz (makilomita 75 kuchokera ku Basra) kudapha anthu 6. Mu Ogasiti, Iran idamanga gulu la zigawenga zachiarabu zopatukana, ndikuwadzudzula kuti amalumikizana ndi anzeru aku Britain ku Basra. Mu Seputembala, kuphulika kunachitika m'mizinda ya Khuzestani, kuletsa kusamutsidwa kwamafuta kuchokera kuzitsime zakunyanja. Pa October 15, mabomba awiri akuluakulu pamsika wa Ahvaz anapha 4 ndi kuvulaza 95. Kufufuza kwa November 3 ku Asia Times kumadzudzula zigawenga za Iraq Sunni chifukwa cha mabomba.
Akuluakulu aku Iran adadzudzula Britain chifukwa chothandizira kuukira, ndipo adamangirira mabomba opanduka ku Britain commando ku Basra. Nyuzipepala ya Daily Star ya ku Beirut inanena pa October 17 kuti akuluakulu a dziko la Iran "akunena za mgwirizano wa azungu m'nyengo yadzidzidzi chaka chino pa zipolowe za mafuko m'chigawo cha Khuzestan, chomwe chimapanga mafuta ndi kulongosola ngati umboni wa nkhondo yamdima yomwe ikulandira zochepa kwambiri. kufalitsa nkhani zapadziko lonse lapansi kuposa zomwe zikuchitika ku Iraq. Kuyambira kuchiyambi kwa 2005, zipolowe komanso kampeni yophulitsa mabomba idachitika nthawi imodzi ndi chisankho chapulezidenti mu June, zidasokoneza mizinda ikuluikulu ya Khuzestan.
Tony Blair ndi mlembi wake wakunja a Jack Straw adakana milanduyi, ndipo adadzudzula Tehran kuti adatumiza nthumwi kukayambitsa mavuto ku Basra ndi mizinda ina yaku Iraq, pothandizira magulu ankhondo aku Iraq a Shi'ite. Gulu lachiarabu lochokera ku London lomwe limachokera ku London likuti a Iranian Revolutionary Guards akhazikitsa malo apadera ankhondo ndi mafakitale m'mphepete mwa malire a Iraq kuti athandizire kulowetsedwa ku Basra, akuchita "kuyeretsa fuko" kwa alimi achiarabu chifukwa cha polojekitiyi ya Free Zone, ndipo achitapo kanthu. masewera olimbitsa thupi akuluakulu kuti athetse zipolowe za Aarabu ku Khuzestan.
Kodi London yayesera kulimbikitsa zigawenga za Iran Arab ku Khuzestan? M'mwezi wa Marichi, Secretary Straw adakumana ndi akapolo aku Iran aku Iran aku London. Mwezi wotsatira, kalata yomwe akuti idachokera kwa Wachiwiri kwa Purezidenti waku Iran idawerengedwa pa wailesi yakanema ya Al-Ahwaz (yowulutsidwa kuchokera ku US kudzera pa satelayiti) yomwe imati imalimbikitsa kuchotsedwa kwa Aluya ku Khuzestan komanso kuitanitsa Aperisi kuti athetse derali. Ngakhale Tehran adadzudzula kuti kalatayo ndi yabodza, achinyamata achiarabu adalowa m'misewu ya Ahvaz ndikumenyana ndi apolisi. Anthu asanu anaphedwa, ndipo Aarabu oposa 400 anamangidwa pankhondo pambuyo pa zipolowe. Chiwonetsero cha Eid cha 4 November cha kumangidwanso kwachiarabu kwa omenyera ufulu wachiarabu akuti kunatha ndi otsutsa a 2 atamwalira ndipo 200 anamangidwa, malinga ndi British Ahwazi Friendship Society.
Arabu aku Khuzestan akhala akunyansidwa ndi Tehran kwa nthawi yayitali chifukwa cholephera kuthetsa umphawi wanthawi zonse komanso kusowa kwa ntchito m'chigawo chomwe chili ndi mafuta, komanso kunyalanyaza ntchito yomanganso mizinda yomwe idaphulitsidwa pambuyo pa nkhondo. Koma ngakhale madandaulo a Aarabu ochepa ali enieni komanso ovomerezeka (omwe ali), nthawi ya chidwi cha azungu pa madandaulo awo imagwirizana bwino kwambiri ndi chikhumbo chachikulu chofuna kukakamiza ndikupatula Iran. Onse a Washington ndi London ali ndi mbiri yakale yolimbikitsa ufulu wa anthu amtundu wocheperako motsutsana ndi boma la "mdani", kenako kusiya kapena kugulitsa ochepa pomwe sikulinso kothandiza.
Machenjezo oyambilira
Yang'anani mawailesi aku Western omwe akunena kuti dziko la Iran likukonzekera "kuyeretsa fuko" pamlingo wa Kosovo kapena Darfur, m'mabodza opangidwa kuti awononge anthu omasuka kapena magulu omenyera ufulu wachibadwidwe. Onerani Fox News pa chenjezo latsopano la "Shi'ite bloc" yaku Iran, kumwera kwa Iraq, Syria yolamulidwa ndi Alawite, ndi Hezbollah yaku Lebanon (yomwe idakhala ndi misasa yophunzitsira ku Khuzestan). Neo-cons athanso kulimbikitsa Bush kuti asiye kuthandiza atsogoleri aku Iraq a Shi'ite, ndikuyang'ana kwambiri kuphwanya kwa nyukiliya ndi ufulu wa anthu ku Iran.
Ngakhale chowonadi cha zonena mokokomeza ndi ziphunzitso zachiwembu zitha kutsutsidwa mosavuta, cholinga chawo chachikulu ndikupeza thandizo la anthu Kumadzulo kwa nkhondo yatsopano yolimbana ndi Iran, monga momwe zonenera zabodza za WMD zidagwiritsidwa ntchito kuti apambane thandizo la congressional ku Iraq. Ma Democrat ena atha kukhala opusa kuti avomerezenso zonena zotere, kuphatikiza omwe adadzudzula Bush chifukwa cholimbana ndi Iraq osati Iran pa WMD (monga John Kerry, yemwe adalemba kuti "njira zolimba" zingafunike motsutsana ndi Iran).
Ambiri mwa Arabu aku Khuzestan atha kufunafuna kuyambiranso kudzilamulira kwawo ku Tehran. Koma sizikuwonekeratu kuti akufuna kuchoka ku Iran, kapena kulowa nawo ku Iraq-ngakhale kuti tsopano ikulamulidwa kwambiri ndi ma Shi'ite anzawo. Atsogoleri aku Iraq Shi'ite (ambiri a iwo omwe adabwerako posachedwa ku Tehran), sakanafuna kusiya anzawo akale polimbikitsa Arabu a Khuzestan, kapena kulola kuti gawo la Iraq ligwiritsidwe ntchito ngati poyambira kuwukira kwatsopano.
Anthu aku America ndi aku Britain safunikira gawo la Iraq kuti aukire Iran. Atha kuyambitsa kumenyedwa ndi zonyamulira ndege motsutsana ndi zida zanyukiliya zaku Iran. Ngati cholinga chawo ndi Khuzestan wolemera ndi mafuta okha, atha kugwiritsanso ntchito Kuwait yapafupi ngati malo ochitirako kuwukira kwatsopano kumeneku "kumasula" Aarabu oponderezedwa. Ngati cholinga chawo chachikulu ndi Tehran, atha kugwiritsa ntchito Afghanistan kapena Azerbaijan ngati malo ochitira masewera. Akhoza kuyambitsa kupanduka pakati pa mafuko a Azeri kumpoto chakumadzulo kwa Iran (monga momwe Soviets adachitira kumapeto kwa nkhondo yachiwiri ya padziko lonse), kapena pakati pa aku Iranian Kurds - pangozi yolimbikitsa odzipatula a Kurdish ku Iraq ndi Turkey.
"Khuzestan Gambit"
Koma chinsinsi cha tsogolo la Iran chili kum'mwera chakumadzulo, ku Khuzestan-ndi minda yake yamafuta, chikhalidwe chake chogawana zachipembedzo ndi Iraq, komanso kuyandikira kwa asitikali aku US ndi Britain omwe akufuna kubwezera komaliza kuchotsedwa kwa Shah. Nyuzipepala ya Daily Star ya ku Beirut inalosera kuti โchoyamba chimene gulu lankhondo lachiwembu lidzachite likakhala kulanda chigawo cha Khuzestan chomwe chili ndi mafuta ambiri ku Iran, nโkuteteza mtsinje wa Straits of Hormuz womwe ndi wovuta kwambiri komanso wodula mafuta a asilikali a ku Iran, nโkukakamizika kudalira masheya ake ochepa. โ
Webusayiti yachitetezo ya Globalsecurity.org imatchulanso njira yowukirayi kuti "Khuzestan Gambit," powona kuti chigawochi "ndi gawo limodzi lalikulu lamapiri aku Iran kumadzulo kwa mapiri a Zagros. Asilikali olemera aku America atha kulanda Khuzestan mwachangu, ndipo potero alanda mphamvu zambiri zamafuta aku Iran, komanso magawo omwe si ang'onoang'ono a madzi a dzikolo komanso mphamvu zopangira magetsi.
Mu njira ya "Khuzestan Gambit", asitikali aku US ndi Britain omwe amathandizira kuwukira kwa Arabu asintha Khuzestan kukhala gulu lankhondo. de A facto chitetezo chodziyimira pawokha cha "Arabistan" kapena "Ahwaz," kuti athe kuyang'anira chuma chadziko chomwe chimadalira mafuta. Pogwira derali ngati "olanda" azachuma, amatha kulamula Tehran. Malingaliro ongopeka a Pentagon strategists angakhale akuti, popanda mwayi wopeza chuma chamafuta mdziko muno, atsogoleri olamulira angasokonezedwe ndipo okonzanso aku Iran atsogolera kusintha kwatsopano.
Komabe monga njira zam'mbuyomu ku Iraq, iyi idzakhalanso yotsimikiziranso kubwezera, powononga mwayi uliwonse wokonzanso ku Iran, ndikusonkhanitsa anthu aku Iran "odziletsa" kuzungulira boma lawo. Ngakhale kulowererapo pang'ono - mwachitsanzo, kuyimitsa chipwirikiti cha Iran kwa otsutsa achiarabu - kungalimbikitse Arab Gulf States kuti anene zankhondo zawo kuzilumba zomwe zidatsutsana ndi Iran. Ngati Khuzestan adzipatula mwalamulo kapena mosavomerezeka, kusunthaku kungayambitse "Balkanization" ya Iran, yomwe ingawononge mayiko oyandikana nawo.
Pamwamba pa zonsezi, aku America ndi British akhoza kungotaya nkhondo yatsopano yolimbana ndi Iran, monga momwe akugonjetsera nkhondo ku Iraq lero. Asilikali a Revolutionary Guards aku Iran ndi omenyera nkhondo owopsa kuposa a Saddam Republican Guard. Asitikali aku Iran atha kuyambitsa zigawenga kapena kusungunuka bwino ngati zigawenga zaku Iraq. Ngati Tehran akumva kuti ali pakona, atha kubwezeranso ndendende njira yomwe Bush ndi Blair adatsutsa - kuthandizira kuwukira ku West ndi Israel, kapena kuyika zida zanyukiliya. Ngati malo awo ndi mafuta akulandidwa, anthu aku Iran angataye chiyani?
Zoltan Grossman ndi membala wa Faculty in Geography and Native American Studies ku Evergreen State College ku Olympia, Washington. Iye analandira Ph.D. mu Geography kuchokera ku yunivesite ya Wisconsin-Madison, ndipo adalemba ndi kukonza zokhudzana ndi mgwirizano pakati pa magulu ankhondo, zachilengedwe, ndi mafuko. Zolemba zake zilipo http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz ndi imelo ku [imelo ndiotetezedwa] (Zikomo Ali Abotalebi kwa ndemanga zolembera.)
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