Bungwe la Federal Reserve likukweza chiwongola dzanja mwachangu kwambiri. Ndipo ngakhale malipiro ambiri amakhalabe osasunthika, mabanki apakati amayang'ana kwambiri kuyang'ana kukula kwa malipiro pakati pa ogwira ntchito, pakati pa ogwira ntchito otsika kwambiri ku United States.
mu izi kuyankhulana ndi wolemba mbiri Tim Barker, yemwe adawonekera koyamba pa Daniel Denvir's Jacobin Radio bwanji The Dig, amakambitsirana za zimene zikuchitika ndi kukwera kwa mitengo ya zinthu, mafotokozedwe osiyanasiyana a kaperekedwe ndi kufunika kwa kukwera kwa mitengo, ndi chifukwa chake kukokerana pakati pa ogwira ntchito ndi owalemba ntchito kuli pa maziko a zonsezi. Zolembazo zasinthidwa kuti zikhale zazitali komanso zomveka bwino.
Kusamala Ndalama
Tiyeni tiyambe ndi funso lofunika kwambiri. Kodi inflation ndi chiyani?
Kutsika kwamitengo, m'lingaliro lodziwika bwino, ndikukwera kosatha kwamitengo m'madera ambiri azachuma. Ndilonso ndondomeko yamitengo yomwe boma limatanthauzira, chifukwa kuti mulankhule za mtengo wamtengo wapatali pazachuma chonsecho, muyenera kufotokoza kuchokera pamitengo yambirimbiri kuti munene kuti pali chiwopsezo cha 5 peresenti kapena 7 peresenti.
Mumatero posankha dengu la katundu ndi mautumiki, zomwe zimayenera kuimira zomwe anthu amawononga ndalama. Ndiyeno mumalemera zinthu zimenezo, chifukwa zina ndi zofunika kwambiri mu bajeti kuposa zina. Zotsatira zake ndi index yamitengo monga Consumer Price Index (CPI). Mlingo wa kusintha kwa index ya mtengowo ndi inflation.
Chifukwa chomwe ndikupangira motere ndikuti anthu ambiri amachitsimikizira ndikuchita ngati pali china chake, kupitilira mtengo wamitengo, chomwe ndi chenicheni. Chifukwa chake anena, mukudziwa, kukwera kwamitengo kukukwera motere, koma pali zinthu zina zapadera mmenemo. Ndipo ngati tikazitulutsa, zikungokwera kwambiri chotere. Koma mukangoyamba kutenga zinthu zapadera, mukungopanga index yatsopano, yosiyana. Ndipo sizikudziwika bwino chomwe chiyenera kuwerengedwa ngati chinthu chapadera kapena ayi. Kotero ine ndikuganiza m'njira zina, njira yabwino yoganizira za momwe inflation ilili ndikusintha kokha pamtengo wamtengo wapatali. Ndipo mukhoza kuyang'ana pansi pa zomwe zili mu ndondomeko yamtengo wapatali ndikufunsa mafunso okhudza izo.
Mwina malongosoledwe amenewo ndiwamba. Kotero ndikupatsani chitsanzo cha chigawo chachikulu cha Consumer Price Index, chomwe ndi chimodzi mwa zizindikiro zazikulu zomwe timagwiritsa ntchito ku United States: ndalama zogona. Gawo lalikulu la malo ogona ndi chinthu chomwe chimatchedwa lendi yofanana ndi eni kapena OER, yomwe ndi mtengo womwe palibe aliyense. M'malo mwake, ndi mtengo wowerengeka womwe umayimira mtengo womwe mwininyumba angamulipire ngati akubwereketsa nyumba yawo m'malo mokhala nayo. Ndipo iyi ndi gawo lofunikira kwambiri la index, koma si mtengo womwe umalipidwa ndi aliyense. Ndi kuyesa kuyimira chinthu chomwe sichili msika kapena osati msika wamtunduwu.
Mosiyana ndi zimenezi, malipiro a ngongole, zomwe ziri zenizeni zomwe aliyense amene ali ndi nyumba amachita nazo, sizili mbali ya ndondomeko yamtengo wapatali. Chifukwa chake ndi njira yongonenera kuti mukangoyang'ana pansi pa ma index awa, muwona kuti panali zosankha zomwe zidapangidwa pazomwe zingaphatikizidwe muzolozera zomwe zikanapangidwa mosiyana.
Tisanalowe m'nkhani zonse za kukwera kwa mitengo kwamasiku ano, ndi ziphunzitso zotani zomwe zimabweretsa kukwera kwa mitengo?
Njira yamabuku yoganizira za izi ndikuti inflation ndi nkhani ya ndalama zambiri kuthamangitsa katundu wosakwanira. Kufotokozera kumeneku kuli ndi zofunikira komanso zoperekera zinthu kwa izo, chifukwa ndi ndalama zambiri, zomwe ndi njira yolankhulira zofunidwa, ndipo sizinthu zokwanira, zomwe ndi njira yolankhulirana za kupezeka komwe kuli kochepa mwanjira ina kapena kusakula ngati. kudya ngati kuwononga.
M'njira yolankhulirana izi, mutha kuyang'ana kwambiri pazofunikira kapena zofunikira. M'mbali yofunikira pali sukulu yamalingaliro yotchedwa monetarism, yomwe imalumikizidwa ndi ziwerengero ngati Milton Friedman, ndipo amatsindika kwambiri kuchuluka kwa ndalama kuposa china chilichonse. Iwo ankaganiza kuti ngati boma likhoza kungoyendetsa ndalamazo pamlingo wokhazikika, simungakhale ndi vuto ndi kukwera kwa inflation, kuti panalibe zifukwa zopanda ndalama zomwe zimayambitsa kukwera kwa mitengo.
Palinso lingaliro lina loyang'ana kwambiri, la Keynesian, lomwe likunena kuti si ndalama zomwe zimaperekedwa, koma kugwiritsa ntchito komwe kumayambitsa kukwera kwa mitengo. Ndipo kotero mutha kuonjezera ndalama, koma ngati ndalamazo sizikugwiritsidwa ntchito, mungakhale ndi chiwonjezeko chachikulu cha ndalama popanda kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa inflation. Mosakayikira, tawona chitsanzo cha izi kwa zaka khumi za 2010s, pamene ndalama zinali kuchulukirachulukira chifukwa cha chiwongoladzanja chochepa komanso kuchepa kwachulukidwe, koma kukwera kwa inflation kunali kokhazikika ndipo Ndalamazo zinali ndi vuto lokumana nazo. zolinga za inflation.
Ndiye pali malingaliro omwe amangoyang'ana pang'ono pakufunika komanso pakupanga zinthu. Lingaliro ndiloti kukwera kwamitengo kumayamba chifukwa cha kusowa kapena kutsekeka kapena njira zina zomwe kuperekera kwa chinthu kumakhala kochepa. Chitsanzo cha izi mu inflation yamakono ndi kuchepa kwa semiconductor: mtengo wa magalimoto, magalimoto atsopano komanso magalimoto ogwiritsidwa ntchito, ukukwera kwambiri chifukwa kupanga magalimoto atsopano kunali koletsedwa, chifukwa kupanga ma semiconductors omwe amafunikira galimoto. , anaumirizidwa.
Ndipo palinso kuwunika kwina kumodzi kwa kukwera kwa inflation komwe katswiri wazachuma wa Marxist Michaล Kalecki. Anatsutsa chiyani?
Kalecki adatanthauzira kukwera kwa inflation ngati kulimbana kogawa pazambiri zomwe anthu amatulutsa. Ndipo kotero mutha kuwona kukwera kwa mitengo ngati ndewu yapakati pa ogwira ntchito, omwe ali ndi malipiro omwe amayimira ndalama zawo kuzinthu ndi ntchito, ndi ma capitalist, omwe ali ndi phindu lomwe limayimira ndalama zomwe ma capitalist amagwiritsa ntchito komanso thumba lomwe ma capitalist amagulitsa. kuti apeze phindu lochulukirapo. Malipiro ndi mapindu aลตiriwo amaimira zonena zandalama pa zinthu zimene chuma chimatulutsa kwenikweni.
Chifukwa chake mukakhala ndi ma capitalist ndi ogwira ntchito omwe amayesa mphamvu kuti awonjezere malipiro awo kapena phindu lawo, motsatana, zomwe zitha kupangitsa kuti pakhale ndalama zochulukirapo kuposa katundu ndi ntchito zomwe zidalipo pamitengo yamakono, zomwe zingapangitse kuti mitengo ichuluke. .
Mungathe kulingalira mozungulira kumene kukwera kwa mitengo kumatsogolera antchito ndi ma capitalist kuyesa kuteteza mtengo weniweni wa malipiro awo ndi phindu lawo motsutsana ndi kukwera kwa mitengo. Ndiyeno pali ndondomeko yowonjezereka imene onse akuthamangitsa kukwera kwa mitengo ndikuthandizira mwanjira ina kuti ikhale yozungulira.
Inflation ndi Fed
Tiyeni titembenukire komwe tinali nthawi yomaliza yomwe tidalankhula, mu Julayi 2021. Munatsutsa ndiye kuti Fed panthawiyo inali kuganiziridwa molakwika ngati inflation, chifukwa chakuti Fed panthawiyo inkawona mphamvu ya ntchito kukhala yofooka m'mbiri, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti anali ndi chidaliro kuti msika wogwira ntchito wokhazikika sungakhale pachiwopsezo chokweza malipilo ndikukweza kukwera kwa inflation.
Mtsutso wanu waukulu, mwa kuyankhula kwina, unali wakuti zochepa kwambiri zomwe zinkawoneka kuti zasintha mu Fed orthodoxy, ndi kuti Fed idakali yosiyana kwambiri ndi kulola kuti gawo la ogwira ntchito la ndalama za dziko likule. Zomwe zidasintha sizinali malingaliro a Fed, koma ntchito yolinganiza, yomwe kuyambira m'ma 1970 idakhala yamphamvu kwambiri. Ndipo a Fed adakonda choncho. Kuyang'ana mmbuyo mu Julayi 2021, zidapezeka kuti mumalondola?
Ndikumva ngati ndinali wolondola kuyeza pakuwunika kwanga zomwe zinali zatsopano za Fed. Ndimadana nazo, chifukwa wolemba bukuli ndi katswiri wazachuma wanzeru kwambiri yemwe ndaphunzira zambiri powerenga. Koma ndikukumbukira blog ya Kukambitsirana Kwatsopano Kumanzere adatulutsa chidutswa cha Cรฉdric Durand chotchedwa "1979 mu Reverse,โ ndi 1979 ponena za chaka chimene tcheyamani wa Fed Paul Volcker anayambitsa kugwedezeka kwake kotchuka kwa Volcker, komwe kunali kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa chiwongoladzanja chomwe chinawonjezera dala ulova ndipo potsirizira pake chinawononga kwambiri anthu ogwira ntchito.
Chidutswa ichi chinali kutsutsana kuti tsopano ndi ndale zowonjezereka za biodynamics ndi kutembenuka kooneka ngati dovish ku Fed, tikuwona chinachake chonga 1979 mosiyana. Mtsutso umenewo unanenedweratu. Tinkawona china chonga Volcker kukhala wopambana kwambiri, anthu adatha kukhala ocheperako kuposa Volcker. Ndikuganiza kuti izi zidakwaniritsidwa, popeza Fed idachita kukweza chiwongola dzanja. Chiwongola dzanja tsopano sichinafike pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri m'mbiri, ndipo sichikuyerekeza ndi kugwedezeka kwa Volcker, koma kuchuluka komwe iwo akuchulukirako ndi kwachilendo. Kotero pakhala pali kukhwimitsa kwambiri, kwakuthwa kwambiri ndi kutembenukira kwakuthwa kolowera. Ndipo monga izi zidachitika, wapampando wa Fed Jerome Powell ndi abwanamkubwa ena a Federal Reserve Board akhala akuwonekeratu kuti chandamale chawo ndi msika wamphamvu wantchito.
Powell akunena zinthu izi, zomwe Marxist angachite manyazi kubwera nazo - angamve ngati akunena kuti maganizo awo akugwirizana ndi zomwe Powell ananena pamisonkhano yake ya atolankhani, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti pali kusalinganika kwa mphamvu zamalonda pakati pa anthu omwe akufunafuna antchito. ndi anthu ofuna ntchito. Ndipo kuti Fed ikweza chiwongola dzanja mpaka kusalinganikako kuthetsedwe ndipo tidzalandira malipiro.
Ndizomveka bwino momwe ubale wa bwana-wogwira ntchito ulibe malire pakadali pano.
Ngati mukufuna kukhala wachilungamo kwa Powell, anganenenso kuti, kukwera kwa mitengo ndi koyipa kwa aliyense, chifukwa chake tiyenera kufooketsa antchito kuti apindule nawo. Anganene kuti kukhazikika kwa malipiro kumatha kuchitika pokhapokha pakakhala kukhazikika kwamitengo.
Kodi kwenikweni chikuchitika ndi chiyani ndi malipiro pazaka zingapo zapitazi komanso pakali pano? Munazindikira titalankhula tisanayambe kuyankhulana kuti a Fed akuwoneka kuti akukhudzidwa kwambiri ndi kutsitsa mitengo mu "ntchito zina osati nyumba." Izi, ndithudi, kukhala gawo lomwe limalemba antchito otsika kwambiri mwa onse ogwira ntchito. Chifukwa chiyani Fed ikukhudzidwa makamaka ndi kukwera kwa malipiro a ogwira ntchito, ndipo izi zikuwonetsa chiyani pazandale zomwe zakhala zikuchitika?
Tiyeni tiyambe ndi gawo loyamba la funso lanu, lomwe lakhala likuchitika ndi malipiro. Yankho lalifupi ndiloti malipiro, pafupifupi, akhala akuima kwa nthawi yaitali. Malipiro ochepera m'mawu osinthidwa ndi inflation ndi otsika kwambiri kuposa momwe analiri m'ma 1960; gawo la ogwira ntchito la ndalama, limene lili njira yoyezera kuti chiลตerengero cha chuma chonsecho chikupita kwa anthu amene amapeza malipiro ndi malipiro, nโchochepa kwambiri kuposa mmene chinalili mu 1970. Ndipo palibe chilichonse cha zimenezo chimene chabwerera mโmbuyo. Chifukwa chake mutha kuganiza kuti palibe chifukwa chilichonse chopangitsa kuti Fed ikhale ndi nkhawa ndi ntchito, ndipo pali china chake chododometsa pamayankho awo.
Ngati muyang'ana zaka ziwiri zapitazi, kapena zaka ziwiri ndi theka zapitazi, malipiro omwe amalipidwa (malipiro osasinthidwa chifukwa cha kukwera kwa inflation), akhala akukula, koma kukwera kwa mitengo kukukulirakuliranso. Chifukwa chake pakuphatikizana, malipiro enieni atsika pang'ono poyerekezera ndi mliri wawo usanachitike. Koma pali zosiyana zambiri zomwe zimaphimbidwa ndi nambala yophatikizika ngati imeneyo. Msika wogwira ntchito uli ndi magawo osiyanasiyana, antchito amitundu yosiyanasiyana.
Chimodzi mwa zinthu zochititsa chidwi kwambiri za msika wogwira ntchito wazaka ziwiri zapitazi ndikuti kukula kwa malipiro kwakhala kofulumira kwambiri pansi. Ogwira ntchito omwe amapeza ndalama zochepa, kuphatikizapo ogwira ntchito omwe mumawatchulawa, awona malipiro awo akukula mofulumira kwambiri ndipo awonadi kukula kwenikweni kwa malipiro - kukula kwa malipiro kupitirira kukwera kwa inflation. Ndizosangalatsa kwambiri, chifukwa zikuwonetsa kuti chinthu chimodzi chomwe msika wantchito ukhoza kukhala nacho ndi kuponderezedwa kwa malipiro. Chifukwa chake, osati madzulo okha masewera pakati pa ndalama ndi antchito, koma pakati pa ogwira ntchito ndi anthu omwe amalandila malipiro - omwe, monga mukudziwa, ndi gulu losiyana kwambiri. Mutha kukhala ndi kuponderezedwa kuti anthu omwe amagwira ntchito m'malesitilanti awone kuti malipiro awo akukula mwachangu kuposa omwe amagwira ntchito kumakampani azamalamulo, zotsatira zake kukhala kusalingana kwachuma pakati pa ogwira ntchito kumapanikizidwa.
Sikuti kukula kwa malipiro kunali kokhazikika pansi, komanso kusiya. Muyeso wofunikira wa kulimba kwa msika wogwira ntchito komanso mphamvu za ogwira ntchito sikuti ndi kuchuluka kwa kusowa kwa ntchito, koma kuchuluka kwa kusiya, ndipo tidawona kusiya kupita padenga. Mโzaka ziลตiri zapitazi, izi zinatchedwa โkusiya ntchito kwakukuluโ mโmagawo ena, ndipo izi zinaikidwanso mโgawo la utumiki. Munawona anthu omwe anali ndi ntchito zomwe samakonda kuwasiya kuti azigwira ntchito zomwe zimalipira bwino m'magawo ena.
Ndipo izi ndizofunika kwambiri kwa Powell ndi ndondomeko yaposachedwa ya Fed chifukwa Powell sangaloze kwenikweni zizindikiro zambiri za kuchuluka kwamitengo yamalipiro kapena kuwopseza kulikonse kwa mphamvu zogwirira ntchito. Koma atha kunena za kulimba kodabwitsaku mu gawo lautumiki ndikulozera kukula kwa mitengo ndi kutsika kwamitengo posachedwapa mu gawo lautumiki wocheperako.
Kodi Powell akuganiza kuti ziyenera kuchitidwa chiyani za ogwira ntchito? Kodi akuganiza kuti amalipidwa mokwanira, kapena si chinthu chimene akuganiza?
Ndi funso labwino. Posachedwapa ndinawerenga cholembedwa cha funso ndi yankho iye anachita pambuyo kulankhula pa Brookings Institution kumene wina mwa omvera - Ndikulumbirira sanali ine - anamufunsa funso la ntchito gawo la ndalama, ndipo iye kwenikweni ananyalanyaza izo. Iye anafunsidwa funsolo kawiri, kamodzi kuchokera kwa omvera, ndiyeno mtolankhani amene anali kuyangโanira chochitikacho anabwerezanso kwa iye. Ndipo nthawi yoyamba iye ananyalanyaza kwathunthu izo, kachiwiri anati, izo si kwenikweni zimene tikukamba apa.
Chifukwa chake ndikuganiza kuti anganene kuti kukula kwa malipiro ndikwabwino ngati kumagwirizana ndi kukhazikika kwamitengo. Amasamala kwambiri polankhula mwachindunji za kugawa. Chinanso chomwe adanena m'mawu ake ndikuti akuwona ntchito yodzipangira okha komanso ndalama zatsopano m'gawo lautumiki, zomwe zingathandize kuthetsa mavuto omwe akugwira ntchito. Koma pali mavuto awiri ndi izo.
Chimodzi ndi chakuti ngakhale mumsika wovuta wa anthu ogwira ntchito ngati umene tikuwona, sizikudziwika kuti pali mipata ingati yogulitsira ntchito. Mufakitale, ndizosavuta nthawi zambiri kusintha wogwira ntchito ndi loboti. M'gawo lautumiki, pali mndandanda wa ma code a QR ndi ma kiosks odzipangira okha, pali zipatso zotsika, koma ndi zinthu zambiri, monga chisamaliro cha ana, ndizovuta kwambiri kuganiza kuti zimangopanga zokha. Chifukwa chake pali vuto lomwe limakhalapo pakuyankha ku nkhani yantchito ndi luso mu gawo lautumiki.
Pamwamba pa izi, ngati cholinga cha Powell ndikupangitsa kuti msika wa ogwira ntchito ukhale wocheperako ndikuchepetsa kukula kwa malipiro, ndiye kuti izi zichepetsanso chilimbikitso kwa ma capitalist kuti achite chilichonse chomwe chilipo mu gawo lautumiki.
Ndani angapindule ndi ngozi ya Fed? Bizinesi, ndithudi, imanyansidwa ndi msika wogwira ntchito molimbika monga momwe ogwira ntchito amalandirira, koma lero phindu lamakampani lakhala likuyenda bwino ndipo ndikukayika kuti ndalama zingalole kuwonongeka kwa msika. Kodi migwirizano yamakalasi yozungulira ndondomeko yazandalama yasintha kuyambira usiku wa kugwedezeka kwa Volcker?
Olemba ntchito ogwira ntchito, omwe amaphatikizapo zinthu zonse zamagulu a ntchito, zomwe zingaphatikizepo maunyolo akuluakulu - koma mukhoza kuganiza kuti eni eni ang'onoang'ono ali ndi mphamvu zomveka komanso zachangu pa ogwira ntchito awo, choncho amamvanso kusalinganika kwamphamvu kumeneku mwachindunji. komanso payekha kuposa dipatimenti yamakampani ya HR. Chifukwa chake ndikuganiza kuti ena mwa iwo, mukudziwa, mwina omwe amapeza phindu lochepa, olimbikira ntchito, kapena olemba mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono adzakhala gulu lalikulu kwambiri, lamphamvu kwambiri lodana ndi kukwera kwa mitengo pakadali pano.
Mumafunsa za zachuma, zomwe ndikuganiza kuti ndi imodzi mwa mafunso okondweretsa kwambiri, chifukwa pali umboni wochuluka wosonyeza kuti zachuma zimakhala ndi ubale wovuta kwambiri ndi kukwera kwa inflation kuposa momwe zinalili kale. M'mbiri yakale, zachuma zinali pakati pa ndale zandalama zomveka, za ndale zotsutsana ndi kukwera kwa mitengo.
Chifukwa inflation ndi yabwino kwa omwe ali ndi ngongole komanso oyipa kwa ongongole, chifukwa mtengo wangongole umakhalabe womwewo pomwe mtengo wake ukuchepa.
Ndendende. Ndizofunikira kuti Paul Volcker adabwera ku Fed kuchokera ku Chase Manhattan Bank ndipo adafunsidwa kwa [Jimmy] Carter ngati mpando wa Fed ndi David Rockefeller, yemwe anali wamkulu wa Chase Manhattan Bank.
Chosangalatsa masiku ano ndichakuti, pazifukwa zingapo, zachuma zikuwoneka kuti sizikutsutsa kutsika kwachuma. Chimodzi ndi chakuti bizinesi yeniyeni yachuma yakhala yovuta kwambiri. Mabungwe ambiri azachuma tsopano ndi onse obwereketsa komanso obwereketsa pamlingo waukulu. Chifukwa chake mutha kulingalira banki yosungira ndalama yomwe ikugwiritsa ntchito ndalama kapena kubwereka ndalama kuti ipange ndalama zina. Mbali ina yake ndi yakuti ndalama zosavuta zomwe taziwona zakhala zikugwirizana ndi mitengo yamtengo wapatali komanso kukwera kwa mbiri yakale pamsika wogulitsa. Ndipo pali lingaliro pa Wall Street kuti kukweza chiwongola dzanja mwachangu kwambiri kapena kukwezeka kwambiri kumakhala koyipa kwambiri pamsika wamasheya komanso kukhazikika kwachuma nthawi zonse.
Izi zapangitsa kuti anthu ena aganize kuti ndalama tsopano ndi gawo lazachuma losavuta, koma ndikuganiza kuti ndikuwongolera mopitilira muyeso kunena mophweka. Chifukwa chimodzi, Jerome Powell ndi munthu wakale wabizinesi wamba, ndipo Federal Reserve monga bungwe, ili pafupi kwambiri ndi gulu lazachuma (ngakhale lili ndi mtunda wokwanira kuti upereke chilango nthawi zina). Ndikuganiza kuti zingatenge malingaliro olimba mtima okhudza kudziyimira pawokha kwa Fed kuganiza kuti akuchita chinthu chomwe sichikugwirizana ndi zomwe ndalama zikufuna. Komanso, mukayang'ana mawu a anthu ambiri azachuma, amawoneka osagwirizana. Ndikuganiza kuti akufuna, ngati n'kotheka, mtundu wa Goldilocks wofewa wotsetsereka momwe Fed imatha kutsitsa kukwera kwa inflation popanda kuyambitsa kutsika kwachuma.
Munthu wosangalatsa kumuyang'ana apa ndi Bill Ackman, yemwe ndi wandalama wamkulu, woyang'anira hedge fund. Mukayang'ana zomwe Ackman adanena pagulu pazaka ziwiri zapitazi, ali ponseponse. Mwezi umodzi adzayitanira Powell kuti atsanzire Volcker, mwezi wotsatira ali ndi nkhawa kuti msika wamalonda udzasokonezeka kwambiri. Ndiyeno iye tweet kunja kuti tiyenera kuonjezera olowa, chifukwa ndi njira mukhoza kutsitsa malipiro popanda kukweza mitengo chiwongola dzanja.
Posachedwapa - ndipo izi ndizofunikira kwambiri - Ackman wayitanitsa kusintha kwa cholinga cha Fed cha 2 peresenti. Tsopano, 2 peresenti ndiyotsika kwenikweni potengera mbiri ya dziko. Ngati Fed ikufuna kukwera kwa 3 kapena 4 peresenti, m'malo mwa 2 peresenti yokha, izi zimachepetsa kuwonongeka komwe akuyenera kuchita kuti akwaniritse zomwe akufuna. Panthawi yomweyi, a William Spriggs, yemwe ndi mkulu wa zachuma ku AFL-CIO, adanenanso kuti cholinga cha 3 peresenti cha inflation. Ndipo pokhudzana ndi mgwirizano, ndizosangalatsa kwambiri kuganiza za Ackman ndi mnyamata uyu wochokera ku AFL-CIO onse akuyitanitsa 3 peresenti ya kukwera kwa mitengo.
Chenjezo la Ackman ndikuti kukumbatira kwake chandamale chatsopanochi sizikutanthauza kuti alibe nkhawa ndi kukwera kwa mitengo. Ndikuganiza kuti zikutanthauza kuti akungofuna kukhazikika pamlingo womwe sungakhale wowawa kwambiri. Ndiye ngati mungakhazikitse pamlingo wapamwamba, angafune. Ndikuganiza kuti zikawopseza kuti zitha kuwongolera, atha kubwereranso kumalingaliro ake a hawkish omwe tawawona pazaka zingapo zapitazi.
Takhazikitsa zochitika zapakhomo pang'ono, koma tisanapitirire, tiyenera kuzindikira kuti capitalism ndi dongosolo ladziko lonse lapansi. Kodi Fed ndi mayendedwe ake zimagwirizana bwanji ndi mabanki ena apakati komanso zomwe amachita padziko lonse lapansi?
US Federal Reserve ndiye banki yayikulu padziko lonse lapansi pazifukwa zingapo. Chimodzi ndi chakuti dola ndi de facto reserve ndalama. Ndi ndalama zomwe zimagulitsidwa padziko lonse lapansi. Ndi chuma chotetezeka chomwe anthu omwe ali ndi chuma padziko lonse lapansi amafuna kusunga ndalama zawo akafuna kuzisunga. Chifukwa chake gawo lake ndikungofunika kwa dola.
Zina, ndipo izi zikugwirizana ndi kufunikira kwa dola, ndikuti Fed ili ndi malo oyendetsa omwe mabanki ambiri apakati alibe. Iwo ali ndi ufulu woyendetsa ndondomeko yotayirira kwambiri ngati akufuna kwa nthawi yaitali, chifukwa pali mphamvu zamphamvu zomwe zimathandizira udindo wa dola pachuma cha dziko. Ndipo makamaka pazaka khumi kapena khumi ndi zisanu zapitazi, Fed yakhala yofunika kwambiri pazachuma chapadziko lonse lapansi, mwachindunji komanso mwanjira ina.
Mwachindunji tidawona izi ndikukhazikitsa zomwe zimatchedwa kusinthana mizere pambuyo pavuto la 2008, lomwe likadalipo. Kusinthanaku kumapangitsa njira yoti Federal Reserve ipereke ndalama za dollar kumabanki ena apakati m'maiko ena, chomwe ndi sitepe lakuvomereza udindowu ngati mabanki apakati padziko lonse lapansi.
Ngakhale pambali pa mizere yosinthira, zomwe Fed imachita zimakhudza padziko lonse lapansi, chifukwa ngati Fed ikweza chiwongola dzanja, mabanki ena apakati amakakamizika kutsatira ngati sakufuna kuwona ndalama zikutuluka muchuma chawo ndikulowa muzachuma. United States pofunafuna chiwongola dzanja chokwera. Ndiye pali kuwonjezereka kowonjezereka komwe US โโyathandizira kuti iyambike.
Ndizosangalatsa chifukwa Kumanzere, nthawi zambiri timaganiza kuti pali dongosolo ladziko lonse la capitalist lomwe silikuyendetsedwa ndi aliyense makamaka. Koma mโlingaliro lina, dongosolo la dziko limenelo lili mbali yaikulu yolamulidwa ndi Fed.
Ngati wina akuyendetsa, ali, sichoncho? Ndikutanthauza, tikufuna kusamala, mukudziwa, osati -
Kupuma kwanga kwakukulu kumeneko kunali kuyesa kupeลตa kumveka ngati Ron Paul. Koma ndithudi ndi chinachake.
Ayi, ndi zoona. Bungwe la Fed lakopa chidwi chochuluka kuchokera kwa akatswiri a chiwembu pazifukwa zabwino kwambiri kuti ndi gulu laling'ono, losasankhidwa la anthu omwe amagwiritsa ntchito mwina kulamulira zochitika zachuma kuposa gulu lina lililonse la anthu. Sitikufuna kukokomeza ulamuliro wawo m'njira zina. Kupanda mphamvu kwawo kumakhalanso kodabwitsa. Tili mumkhalidwe womwe mitengo yazakudya ndi mphamvu komanso mitengo ya semiconductor ikukwera ndipo a Fed sangachite chilichonse pa izi. Powell mwiniwake angakuuzeni kuti sitingathe kubowola mafuta ambiri, sitingathe kuthetsa mavuto pamisika yambewu kapena nyama, sitingathe kukambirana kuthetsa nkhondo ku Ukraine.
Koma momwe gulu lirilonse la anthu liri ndi mphamvu pazochitika zachuma, a Fed amatero, ndipo ngati alibe mphamvu zothetsera mavuto, mosakayikira ali ndi mphamvu zopangitsa kuchepa kwachuma ngati akufuna. Chimene chiri, kwenikweni, mphamvu yonga yaumulungu.
N'chiyani Chimayambitsa Kukwera kwa Ndalama?
Tiyeni titembenuzire ku nkhani zambiri zotsutsana za kukwera kwa mitengo yamasiku ano. Chimodzi ndichoti zachitika chifukwa cha kusokonekera kokhudzana ndi miliri yokhudzana ndi miliri motsatana ndi nthawi ya mliri wakusintha kwa kagwiritsidwe ntchito kuchokera ku ntchito kupita ku katundu, zomwe zimabweretsa kupsinjika kwakukulu pamaketani operekera, zonse zomwe zidakulitsidwa ndi kuwukira kwa Russia ku Ukraine, komwe. Zinalinso ndi zotsatira zapadera pamagawo ena, monga zogulitsa kunja kwa tirigu. Mukuganiza bwanji pa zomwe zayambitsa?
Pakhala pali chidwi chachikulu pazofotokozera za kukwera kwa mitengo. M'nthawi zakale, anthu ambiri akadakweza kukwera kwa mitengo ndikuimitsa nkhaniyo pamenepo. Ndipo ngakhale mutaganizira momwe anthu amakumbukira zaka za m'ma 1970, zomwe zinali zaka khumi zochititsa mantha - kugwedezeka kwamafuta, kugwedezeka kwamitengo yambewu - nthawi zambiri zimakumbukiridwa ngati nthawi yomwe ndalama zambiri kapena malipiro anali okwera kwambiri. .
Ndikuganiza kuti chifukwa chimodzi chomwe izi zachitikira ndikuti zinali zomveka bwino, makamaka kwa chaka choyamba, kuti kuwonjezeka kwa mtengo kunayikidwa m'magulu angapo. Chofunika kwambiri chinali magalimoto ndi katundu wina wokhazikika komanso mitengo yamagetsi ndi renti.
Zomwe zachitika kuyambira pamenepo pakhala kufutukuka kwa magulu amitengo omwe akhala akukwera. Monga izi zachitika, pakhala kubweranso kwa nkhani yodziwika bwino yokhuza kuchuluka kwa kuchuluka kwazinthu, chifukwa mukuwona mitengo ikukwera m'magawo omwe siapadera, omwe sakukhudzana mwachindunji ndi mliri kapena kutsegulanso. . Mitengo yokulirapo yamitengo yamitengo yasintha. Izi zati, ndikuganizabe kuti pali zomveka pamalingaliro oti zinthu zofunika kwambiri pakutsika kwamitengo zakhala zochitika zapadera zokhudzana ndi mliri, nkhondo, komanso kusokonekera kwazinthu.
Ndipo mukuwona kuti tsopano, mwa njira zina, kukwera kwa mitengo kukutsika ndipo kukucheperacheperanso malinga ndi kuchuluka kwa mitengo yomwe yakhudzidwa.
Ndiye ngati ndi choncho, n'chifukwa chiyani a Fed yayankha pokweza chiwongola dzanja? Kapena kodi Fed imangotengera malingaliro amtundu wandalama, chifukwa chomwe amawongolera ndikupereka ndalama, osati ndondomeko yazachuma?
Ndikuganiza kuti yankho ndilo chinthu chachiwiri chomwe mwanena - mukakhala ndi nyundo, zonse zimawoneka ngati msomali. Ndipo kuti tiganizire za izi mwamalingaliro, pali malingaliro abodza pang'ono polankhula za kupezeka kapena kufunikira monga momwe zilili, chifukwa ngakhale mutakhala ndi vuto lazachuma pagawo linalake lazachuma - tinene kuti kupatsa mphamvu kapena ma semiconductors akuyendetsa. kukwera kwa mitengo - ndizotheka kuthetsa vuto lomwe lili mu gawo linalake pochepetsa kufunikira kwachuma mpaka kutsika kwa zinthuzo.
Chifukwa ndikachotsedwa ntchito, ndiye kuti sindikugula galimoto yatsopano kapena konsoni yamasewera apakanema.
Ndendende. Kuletsa kwazinthu kumangomanga ngati pali kufunikira kwa chinthu chomwe chikuperekedwa. Kotero nthawi zonse pamakhala kuyanjana kwa zinthu izi zikuchitika. Chomwe chili pachiwopsezo, komabe, ndikuti ngati mungaganize kuti kuchuluka kwachuma pazachuma chonse kuchepetsedwa kukhala chinthu chocheperako kwambiri, mukuchepetsa kufunikira kwa zinthu zina zambiri pansi pa zomwe zilipo. kupereka. Chifukwa chake kuti mupeze kufunikira kogwirizana ndi kupezeka kwa magalimoto atsopano, mudzakhala mukupanga kusagwira ntchito m'mizere ina yambiri komwe atha kukwaniritsa zofunikira zambiri ngati botolo limodzili litasweka.
Ndikuganiza kuti Fed yatenga lingaliro ili. Ndikuganiza kuti amakopeka ndi maakaunti am'mbali, ndipo amavomerezanso kuti sangachite chilichonse pazokhudza izi. Koma akuganiza kuti ali ndi udindo wobwezeretsa kukhazikika kwamitengo, ndipo amaganiza kuti ngati achepetsa kufunikira kokwanira, izi sizikhala ndi zotsatirapo pakuchepetsa zolepheretsa, koma pakupanga zolepheretsa zopezeka kuti zisamangidwe chifukwa palibe amene akufunsa. magalimoto atsopano.
Kufotokozera kwachuma kwamphamvu kwa kukwera kwa mitengo, komwe kumakhala kofala pakati pa osunga malamulo komanso akuluakulu, kumakhudzanso kulimbikitsira kwachuma kwazaka zoyambirira za mliri. Mwachidule, zinali zochulukira, makamaka zochulukira mu mawonekedwe a macheke omwe amatumizidwa kwa anthu tsiku ndi tsiku, zomwe zinathandizira kuti msika wogwira ntchito ukhale wovuta kwambiri ndipo motero unapatsa antchito mwayi wochuluka wotsutsana ndi olemba anzawo ntchito, kukweza malipiro.
Kodi akauntiyo ili bwanji? Tidakambirana za momwe Fed imayang'ana pakutsitsa malipiro a ogwira ntchito, koma malingaliro a Powell, ndikuganiza, akadali osawona, tinene, Larry Summers.
Kufotokozera kosavuta kwa ochita ndalama - kuti vutoli likusindikiza ndalama zambiri - silingatheke chifukwa chakuti ndondomeko ya ndalama inalinso yotayirira kwambiri ndipo zoperewera zinali kuyendetsedwa kwa zaka khumi pakati pa 2008 ndi 2018 popanda umboni weniweni wochititsa kukwera kwa mitengo.
Ndikuganiza kuti pali vuto lalikulu loti kuwononga ndalama kumathandizira kukweza mitengo. Zikukhudzana ndi zokambirana zomwe tinali nazo, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti popanda kufunika kogwira ntchito, zopinga zapaintaneti sizimangirira. Chifukwa chake mukadayankha mliriwu ndikukhumudwa ndikupangitsa kuti ndalama za aliyense zigwe, palibe amene akanagula magalimoto atsopano ndipo palibe amene akanazindikira kuti pali kuchepa kwa semiconductor.
Koma zikudzutsa funso lakuti, kodi tikanachita mosiyana? Kodi zikadakhala bwino kuyankha mliriwu pokhala ndi kupsinjika maganizo, ngati zikutanthauza kuti sipakanakhala kukwera kwa mitengo? Yankho lake nโlakuti ayi. Pakhala pali mtengo wina wa mliri pazachuma nthawi zonse. Ndipo kulipira mtengo umenewo potengera kukwera kwa mitengo kumawoneka ngati kwabwino kwambiri kuposa kulipira movutikira.
Chinanso chomwe ndingawonjezere ndichakuti ngakhale mutavomereza kuti ndalama zomwe boma limagwiritsa ntchito komanso ndalama zomwe mabanja amawononga pa nthawi ya mliri zinali zofunika kwambiri pakukwera kwamitengo, simuyenera kukokomeza, chifukwa momwe chuma chaboma chikukulirakulira. pa nthawi imene inflation inakula kwambiri ndipo inakhala yokhazikika. Chotero ngati panalidi kugwirizana kwachindunji pakati pa zinthu zimenezi, mukanayembekezera kuti zikupita ku mbali ina.
Kufikira momwe ndondomeko zopezera ndalama zonse zingathandizire ku kukwera kwa mitengo, kodi pali mtsutso wa ndondomeko ya zachuma yomwe ikuyang'ana kwambiri pakupereka ndalama zothandizira anthu onse m'malo moika ndalama m'matumba a anthu kuti azigwiritsa ntchito m'gawo lililonse la msika wa capitalist omwe angasankhe?
Ndikuganiza choncho. Chitsanzo chabwino choganizira za izi ndi chisamaliro chaumoyo, chomwe ndi gawo lalikulu osati mtengo wamtengo wapatali, koma kwenikweni ndi gawo lautumiki la ndondomeko yamtengo wapatali yomwe takhala tikukamba za kumene mitengo yakhala ikuwonjezeka.
Gawo lazaumoyo limalumikizidwa kwambiri ndi boma m'njira zambiri. Ndikuganiza kuti kufunafuna kuwongolera mitengo mkati mwa gawolo, ndikuwonetsetsa kuti aliyense ali ndi mwayi wopeza chithandizocho, kungakhale kothandiza kwambiri kuposa kungopatsa anthu ndalama kuti apereke kwa omwe amapereka chithandizo chamankhwala kuti apindule nawo omwe amatha kupitilira malire awo. mtengo-kuphatikiza maziko chifukwa cha zomwe boma likufuna.
Ngati tikufuna kuganizira za njira ya kumanzere yotsutsana ndi kutsika kwa chuma, kulamulira ndalama zothandizira zaumoyo mwa kuchepetsa phindu la chithandizo chamankhwala ndi opereka mankhwala angakhale ndi zotsatira zoonekeratu pa CPI. Ndipo ndi chinachake chimene simukanachita pongopatsa anthu ndalama kuti agwiritse ntchito.
Mwachidziwitso, ndalama zowononga chitetezo sizikuwoneka ngati zili pachimake. Ndipo inali ndalama zodzitetezera, pambuyo pake, pankhondo ya Vietnam yomwe idachita zambiri kuthamangitsa kukwera kwa mitengo m'ma 1960 ndi ma 70s. Masiku ano, tikuwonanso kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pachitetezo. Kodi ndalama zodzitetezera zitha kukhala ndi gawo lotani pakuyendetsa kukwera kwa mitengo pakali pano? Ndipo pachiwopsezo chokhazikitsa funso lenileni la T-ball kwa inu, chifukwa chiyani si gawo lazokambirana?
Tatsala pang'ono kuwononga ndalama zokwana madola thililiyoni chaka chilichonse pachitetezo cha chitetezo. Panali chitsanzo cha buku la momwe izi zimakambidwira mu a New York Times nkhani tsiku lina za bajeti ya chitetezo. Imatchulanso momwe bajeti ilili komanso kuti Congress idapeza ndalama zambiri kuposa momwe Joe Biden ankafunira kulipira zida zankhondo zomwe ngakhale asitikali sakufuna. Zizindikiro zoonekeratu zakuchulukira ndi kutupa. Inanena kuti kukwera kwa mitengo kwachepetsa mtengo weniweni wa bajeti yankhondo. Inanenanso kuti Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, ndi makontrakitala ena akuluakulu achitetezo akudandaula kuti zimawavuta bwanji kupeza antchito aluso kapena kupeza zinthu monga ma semiconductors.
Kotero pali zinthu zonsezi zokhudzana ndi kukula kwa bajeti, za zotsatira za kukwera kwa mitengo, koma palibe ngakhale chiganizo chosonyeza kuti ndalama zodzitetezera zikhoza kukhala zikuthandizira kukwera kwa inflation. Ingoganizirani zomwe zingachitike ngati pangakhale $ 850 biliyoni pachaka bajeti ya Green New Deal (yomwe ndi yochulukirapo kuposa momwe timawonongera nyengo). Komabe, ngati pali chilichonse, mkangano ndi wakuti inflation imatanthauza kuti ndalama zodzitetezera ziyenera kukwera kuti zipeze phindu lenileni lomwe latayika.
Ndi zomwe zanenedwa, likadali funso lotseguka kuti ndi ndalama zingati zodzitetezera zomwe zikuthandizira kukwera kwa inflation.
Ndikuganiza kuti pali njira zosiyanasiyana zomwe mungayesere momwe ndalama zodzitetezera zimakhudzira kukwera kwa inflation. Monga, mwachitsanzo, bwanji ngati mutatengera chitsanzo cha momwe zingawonekere kuyikanso gawo lalikulu la likulu ndi akatswiri ogwira ntchito omwe akugwiritsidwa ntchito m'mafakitale achitetezo kumafakitale omwe akukumana ndi zovuta kapena zoperewera kapena zochepa.
Ndi mfundo yaikulu. Chifukwa chake zomwe mukunena ndikuti ngakhale ndalama zambiri zodzitchinjiriza sizikuyendetsa kukwera kwa mitengo, pali mwayi wogwiritsa ntchito mainjiniya onse ku Lockheed, m'malo mowalemba ntchito kuti tiwonetsetse kuti titha kukhala ndi magalimoto amagetsi okwanira kwa aliyense amene akufuna. imodzi.
Monopoly Power, Ogawana, ndi Neoliberalism
Chifukwa chake tafotokozapo zina mwa nkhani zokhuza kukwera kwa mitengo, ngakhale sizinthu zonse, komanso malingaliro ofunikira omwe amakhudzana ndi ndalama zomwe boma limagwiritsa ntchito komanso mgwirizano wake ndi msika wocheperako wantchito.
Koma palinso nkhani ina yomwe ena Kumanzere - ndipo nthawi zina oyang'anira Biden - amalozera, komwe kumapangitsa kuti makampani apindule ndi mphamvu zokhazokha. Mukuganiza chiyani pamkangano?
Ndizovuta. Ndachita zonse zomwe ndingathe kuti ndiwerenge anthu anzeru omwe adalemba za izi, ndipo akuwoneka kuti akutsutsana pakati pawo momwe angaganizire za vutolo. Chomwe chikuwoneka bwino ndichakuti mwa njira zambiri, phindu lamakampani limakhala pambiri kapena pafupi ndi mbiri. Ndipo kotero, osachepera, tinganene kuti, chabwino, malipiro sanachoke pamtundu wawo wanthawi yayitali wokhala ndi nkhawa ndipo tawonapo zambiri pazopindulitsa zamabizinesi.
Ndiye pali funso lapadera loti kuchuluka kwa mapindu amakampani kwakhala koyambitsa kukwera kwa inflation. Ndipo funsoli ndi losavuta kuyankha, mwina chifukwa cha mafunso ofunikira okhudza zomwe zili zandale mwanjira yosangalatsa. Sitikudziwa zambiri za momwe zisankho zamitengo zimachitikira, ndipo sitikudziwa za malire a phindu pazinthu zina. Makampani aboma amatulutsa malipoti olandila, kotero mutha kulingalira kuti Johnson ndi Johnson akupanga phindu lotani, koma sitikudziwa kwenikweni phindu lomwe akupanga pamtundu wina wa thewera kapena momwe adapangira chisankho.
Chifukwa chake yankho limodzi ku funsoli ndilakuti ndizovuta kudziwa, koma tiyenera kukhala ndi chidwi ndi anthu pazosankha zofunika kwambiri pamitengo ndi phindu.
Komabe, ndikuganiza kuti pali umboni wokulirapo wosonyeza kuti phindu lamakampani lathandizira mwanjira ina kukukwera kwamitengo yaposachedwa. Chimodzi mwazofufuza zatsatanetsatane kwambiri pa izi zidachitika ndi Mike Konczal, katswiri wazachuma ku Roosevelt Institute, ndipo adayang'ana zotsatsa zamakampani - ndiye, kuchuluka kwamakampani akulemba mitengo pamitengo.
Anapeza kuti pali kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa chiwerengero cha anthu m'zaka zingapo zapitazi ndipo, chochititsa chidwi kwambiri, kuti makampani omwe adalemba kwambiri m'zaka zingapo zapitazi analinso makampani omwe akhala akulemba zambiri chaka cha 2020 chisanafike. Izi zikusonyeza kuti kuchulukirachulukira kwachuma pa nthawi ya kukwera kwa mitengo ya zinthu kudayamba chifukwa cha mphamvu zamsika chifukwa makampani omwe adatha kutero ngakhale chiwombankhanga chaposachedwa chinali chitayamba kale. Iwo angoyamba kuchita izi mwamphamvu kwambiri pakukwera kwamitengo kwaposachedwa.
Umboni winanso - womwe anthu ena angauone ngati wongochitika chabe, koma ndimapeza kuti akunenadi - ndi wakuti Lael Brainard, membala wa Federal Reserve Board of Governors, wanenapo m'mawu angapo omwe adawona kukwera kwa phindu. pasadakhale kukwera kulikonse kwamitengo, kaya antchito kapena ndalama zina zogulira m'magawo ena, kuphatikiza ogulitsa. Ngati mukudziwa chilichonse chokhudza Federal Reserve, mukudziwa kuti sapita kukadzudzula mabizinesi pazosankha zawo pamitengo kapena kukayikira kuchuluka kwa phindu. Izi zikusiyana kwambiri ndi kusamvetsetsa kwawo momwe malipiro amafunikira kuwongolera.
Chifukwa chake chowona kuti membala wa Federal Reserve Board amatchula mafakitale enaake ndikutchula malire awo akuwonetsa kwa ine kuti sangachite izi popanda chifukwa chabwino chochitira. Ndizovuta kulingalira zomwe Fed imapindula popanga nkhani yokhudzana ndi reflation.
Pali bungwe lotchedwa Groundwork lomwe laphunzira zambiri zama foni omwe amapeza makampani ndikupeza umboni wamphamvu wosonyeza kuti pali mabungwe omwe amalankhula zamtunduwu - mwamwayi akugwiritsa ntchito momwe mitengo imakwera kuti akweretse mitengo yomwe ndi yopitilira muyeso. ndalama zomwe akukumana nazo.
Mutha kuyankha izi ponena kuti mabungwe amapeza phindu ndipo palibe chochititsa manyazi pamenepo. Mukudziwa, chifukwa chiyani angafunikire kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa mtengo wawo pamtengo wawo wokwera?
Koma ndikuganiza kuti chomwe chimapangitsa kukhala funso la ndale ndi nkhani iyi ya mphamvu ya msika. Ndipo china chake monga kuwongolera mitengo, komwe kumawoneka kosatheka pandale ku United States, kumawoneka ngati koyenera - Congress ikuyenera kuyang'anira momwe zisankho zamitengo zimapangidwira komanso phindu lanji m'mafakitale ofunika kwambiri azachuma. Ndipo, mukudziwa, mwachiyembekezo izi zitha kubwera ndi mphamvu zenizeni za subpoena pomwe mungangowapempha kuti atsegule mabuku awo ndikupereka zambiri zomwe zingatithandize kukonza izi.
Inde. Zimafikanso ku mfundo yakuti zimaonedwa kuti n'zovomerezeka kuti a Fed ayang'ane mtengo wa ntchito, koma osati kuti boma liziwongolera mitengo ya katundu ndi ntchito.
Kulondola. Ndizosangalatsa kwambiri kuti panthawi imodzimodziyo ndikunena kuti kulamulira kwamitengo sikutheka, Jerome Powell adalengeza cholinga chodziwika bwino cha kukula kwa malipiro. Kotero ali ndi ndondomeko ya ndalama. Akuti tikufuna kukula kwa malipiro, koma kuyenera kugwirizana ndi 2 peresenti yathu ya inflation. Ndi chiyani ngati sichowongolera mitengo yamalipiro?
Mutha kuganiza za chitsanzo china, chomwe nthawi zina chimapindulitsa eni nyumba: tili ndi zaka makumi atatu zokhazikika zobwereketsa, zomwe ndi mtundu wa kuwongolera mitengo kwa eni nyumba omwe eni nyumba sakhala nawo. Kotero pali mitundu yonse ya miyezo iwiri mu dongosolo. Ndipo mโnkhani zonse za eni nyumba, kapena nkhani imeneyi ya phindu motsutsana ndi malipiro, iwo amakonda kupindulitsa anthu omwe ali ndi katundu mโmalo mwa anthu amene amabwereka kapena ogwira ntchito.
Kubwerera ku funso la mbali ya supply. Ambiri kumanzere akutsutsa kuti kukwera kwa mitengo kwakhala koyendetsedwa ndi kusowa kwa mphamvu zogwirira ntchito pazachuma. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, kukokera pa kutulutsa kwa katundu ndi ntchito m'gawo lililonse kapena kudera lonse kumathandizira kukwezeka kwamitengo. Radhika Desai akulemba mu Kukambitsirana Kwatsopano Kumanzere: "Chochititsa chidwi kwambiri pano ndi kuchepa kwa mphamvu zopanga zinthu ku US chifukwa chazaka makumi anayi za mfundo za neoliberal - kusungitsa ndalama, kuletsa, kugulitsa ntchito kunja - zomwe zapangitsa kuti chuma chikhale pachiwopsezo chachikulu chosokonekera komanso kulepheretsa njira zothandizira kutsitsa mitengo."
Chifukwa chake uku ndikukangana komwe kumapangitsa chuma kukhala pachiwopsezo cha kusokonekera kwa chain chain. Mukuganiza chiyani pamkanganowu?
Kumanzere kuli kusagwirizana kwamitundu yonse pazandalama, za kukwera kwa mitengo yamtengo wapatali, pankhani ya phindu lamakampani. Koma monga ndikudziwira, aliyense akuwoneka kuti akuvomereza kuti ndalama zokhazikika ndi mabizinesi komanso ndalama zapagulu zakhala zotsika kwambiri kwazaka makumi angapo ku United States. Choncho pali zinthu ziwiri zoti tikambirane apa.
Imodzi ndi yakuti, ndalama zina zimachokera kuti? Wina ndi wakuti, kodi zikuthandizira bwanji kutsika kwa mitengo? Ndiyamba ndi momwe zimathandizira pakukwera kwamitengo. Lingaliro pano ndikuti zovuta zomwe zapangitsa kuti kukwera kwamitengo kwaposachedwa kukhale chifukwa chazovuta zachilendozi monga mliri kapena nkhondo ya ku Ukraine. Zodabwitsazi zikuwonetsa zofooka zomwe zilipo m'malo mopanga zofooka.
Pamenepa, kuchepa kwenikweni kwa ndalama zokhazikika m'zachuma kunatanthauza kuti chuma chinalibe mphamvu zambiri zosungira. Chotero pamene panali zisokonezo chifukwa cha mliri kapena chifukwa cha nkhondo, zopingazo zinali zolimba kwenikweni. Ngati mungaganizire dongosolo lomwe lili ndi mphamvu zambiri zomangidwiramo, ndi kulimba mtima kwambiri - kuperewera kwina kungakhale njira ina yoganizira za izi - ndiye kuti mutha kukhala ndi zosokoneza zapaderazi kuti mupereke popanda kukhala zowopsa.
Koma pansi pa neoliberalism, pakhala pali njira yoyendetsera makampani yomwe imayang'ana kwambiri kuchepetsa mafuta ndi kubweza ndalama kwa eni ake omwe ali ndi magawo ndi zogula ndikupewa kuyika ndalama zotsika mtengo komanso zowopsa. Pakhalanso kukonzanso kwa kupanga, komwe kumayang'ana kwambiri kupanga zowonda kapena unyolo wanthawi yayitali, pomwe cholinga chonse cha chinthucho ndikuyesa kuchulukitsa phindu pochotsa kusafunikira kulikonse mudongosolo. Chifukwa chake mulibe kusowa kwa ndalama, koma njira yonse yokonzekera kupanga ndi kufalikira komwe kumatengera mphamvu zopuma kunja kwadongosolo.
Gawo lachiwiri la zomwe mukufunsa ndilakuti, kusayika ndalama mocheperaku kumachokera kuti? Pali nkhani zingapo pamenepo, zomwe nthawi zambiri zimagwirizana. Chifukwa chake chinthu chimodzi chomwe mumamva zambiri ndikuwongolera kwa omwe akugawana nawo komanso "kusintha kwaogawana." Lingaliro lomwe lilipo ndikuti, makamaka kuyambira zaka za m'ma 1980, eni ake amakampani omwe ali ndi anthu adapangana ndikukhala omenyera ufulu wokakamiza oyang'anira makampani kuti azitsatira njira zina. Ndipo njirazi zimakonda kukweza ndalama zaulere, zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito kugulanso masheya akampani ndikukweza mtengo wamasheya kapena kubweza kwa omwe ali ndi masheya monga mapindu kapena chipukuta misozi. Ndipo izi zimadza chifukwa cha kuyika ndalama muzinthu zatsopano.
Tinali ndi chionetsero chomveka bwino cha izi m'nkhani zingapo zaposachedwa. Imodzi ili ndi mafakitale amafuta ndi gasi komwe, mukudziwa, kunalibe mphamvu poyankha kuchuluka kwa kufunikira. Ngakhale mitengo ikukwera, panalibe chidwi chochuluka pazachuma zatsopano m'magawo amenewo. Panali zofufuza zomwe zidachitika, kuphatikiza ndi nthambi ya Fed ku Texas, kufunsa opanga, chifukwa chiyani simukuyankha pamitengo yokwera ndi ndalama zambiri?
Chinthu chachikulu chomwe opanga magetsi adatchula chinali chomwe chimatchedwa kuwongolera ndalama - kukakamizidwa ndi eni ake kuti asawononge ndalama zanu, ndalama zomwe mumagulitsa muzomera ndi zida zatsopano, zotsika. Pamenepa, sikuti ogawana nawo ndi adyera basi. Ndizoti pali chiwopsezo chenicheni pazachuma, chomwe ndikuti sipadzakhala kufunikira komwe kutsimikizira ndalamazo zikatha. Kuyika ndalama kumatenga nthawi: ngati ndikumanga fakitale yatsopano kapena chitsime chamafuta, sizichitika mawa. Ndipo kotero capitalist akutenga njuga pamene amamanga kuti zofuna zidzakhalapo ndipo sipadzakhala kukhumudwa.
Zomwe zidachitika m'gawo lamagetsi makamaka ndikuti panali chiwonjezeko chachikulu, kukulitsa kwakukulu kwamphamvu mozungulira fracking poyankha kukwera kwamitengo komweko. Ndipo ambiri mwamakampaniwo adatheratu chifukwa panalibe kufunikira komaliza komweko ndipo pali mtundu wakukula mopitilira muyeso.
Ndipo OPEC [Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] idayambitsanso kuukira kwamphamvu kwa America.
Ndendende kulondola.
Makampani ena omwe timawona izi momveka bwino ali mu njanji. Pakatikati pa mkangano waposachedwa wa ogwira ntchito panali njira ya ogawana nawo, yomwe idakhazikitsidwa ndi omwe ali ndi masheya, kuphatikiza Ackman ndipo pamapeto pake Warren Buffett. Iwo anaganiza kuti apangitsa njanji kukhala yopindulitsa kwambiri mwa kuchepetsa kwenikweni ndalama zoyendetsera ntchito, kuphatikizapo ndalama za ogwira ntchito, kuti athe kubwezera ndalama zambiri kwa eni ake. Ndipo izi zatanthauza kuti aziyenda masitima aatali ndithu. Iwo anali kukopa Congress kuti athe kuyendetsa sitima ndi kondakitala m'modzi.
Kodi pulogalamu ya Biden Build Back Better, ndime ya Kuchepetsa kwa Inflation, CHIPS Act, ndi bilu ya zomangamanga zimatiuza chiyani zamalingaliro opikisana awa mu ndale zaku America? Kodi zikuwonetsa kuti ena mwa otukuka omwe amapanga mfundo zowongoka sanakwatiwe ndi mtundu wofewa wandalama komanso chinyengo monga momwe adakhalira zaka khumi zapitazo? Kuti opanga mfundo makamaka, amakhulupirira kuti kukwera kwa mitengo kuyenera kuthetsedwa ndi kuwonjezereka kwa zinthu m'malo mongochepetsa kufunikira? Ndiyeno pomaliza, kodi lamulo la Kuchepetsa Kukwera kwa Ndalama ndi njira zina izi zidzafika pati pazovuta zapambali?
Ndikuganiza kuti pali kusintha kwenikweni komwe kukuchitika mu Democratic Party komanso mkati mwaufulu mokulirapo zomwe zikuwonekeratu ngati mungafananize zoyeserera za Biden zomwe mudanena ndi oyang'anira a Obama. [Barack] Zolimbikitsa za Obama zinali ndi zomwe panthawiyo zinali zazikulu kwambiri ndi mbiri yomvetsa chisoni ya mbiri yakale yaku America, koma, m'mbuyo, ndi ndalama zochepa kwambiri zopangira ndalama zamtundu uliwonse. Chofunikira pakuyankhira kwamavuto a Obama chinali kuyambitsa misika yazachuma kuyambiranso ndikupita patsogolo pakusintha koyenera, ngakhale panthawi yomwe ulova udakali pafupifupi 10 peresenti.
Chifukwa chake ndikuganiza kuti Obama anali adakali m'malingaliro kuti udindo ndi kukhazikika kwamitengo kumafuna kudula Social Security ndikukweza misonkho. Izi ndizosiyana ndi kuyankha kwa Biden. Pali kudzipereka kwenikweni komwe kumachitika chifukwa cha kuzindikira kufunikira kwa kusintha kobiriwira, komanso chifukwa chakukula kwa mpikisano ndi China. Ndipo izi zikuwonekera m'zinthu zolembedwa ndi anthu osiyanasiyana omwe adakhala m'gulu la oyang'anira a Biden 2020, kuti ndi chitsanzo cha China ngati chuma chosakanikirana ndi ndalama zoyendetsedwa ndi boma, zomwe zapangitsa kuti izi zitheke. mfundo za mphamvu za mphamvu, kuyankha pamavuto, ndi zankhondo. Ndikuganiza kuti ndizofunika kwambiri pa chilichonse chomwe chili chowona pakukumbatirana kwamtundu wa mawonekedwe a mbali yoperekera.
Komabe, ndizodziwikiratu kuti oyang'anira a Biden athandizira kwathunthu kutembenuka kwa hawkish kwa Powell. Biden wachitapo kanthu kunena kuti sadzadzudzula Fed chifukwa amayamikira ufulu wake. Ndipo kotero, mutha kuganiza za izi ngati wapolisi wabwino, njira yoyipa ya wapolisi. Kapena mungangoganiza kuti oyang'anira a Biden akuganiza kuti sangakwanitse kumenya nkhondo ndi Fed, chifukwa cha zomwe zingakhudze chidaliro cha bizinesi. Sindikudziwa kuti ndi chiyani, koma palinso pang'ono, kuyankhulanso kuchokera kumbali zonse ziwiri za mkamwa mwathu - kulimbikitsa lamulo lochepetsera mphamvu ya inflation ndikusapumira ngakhale pang'ono kuti izi zikhoza kutsutsana ndi mgwirizano. kuyesetsa kuchepetsa chuma ndi kuchepetsa kubwereketsa.
Chinthu chinanso chonena ndikuti pali kusiyana pakati pa ndalama za boma ndi zomwe katswiri wazachuma Paul Samuelson amachitcha "chiphuphu kukupanga ndalama," omwe ndi mawu omwe ndimawakonda. Pali zinthu zosiyanasiyana zomwe boma lingachite kuti lipangitse ndalama. Imodzi ndikukhala Investor palokha, monga mungawone mu Tennessee Valley Authority. Chinanso ndikupereka ziphuphu kwa opanga payekha kuti akhazikitse. Ndipo pafupifupi chilichonse chomwe tawona kuchokera ku oyang'anira a Biden zakhala zitsanzo za njira ya ziphuphu.
Choncho opanga mafuta sakufuna kubowola chifukwa sadziwa ngati akufunika. Mukuti, tikukutsimikizirani kuti kufunikira kudzakhalapo, chonde pitani mukasangalale ndi chitsime chanu - ndipo mukatero m'malo momanga chitsime chaboma kapena kumanga makina oyeretsera aboma. Ndipo sizosadabwitsa chifukwa cha mphamvu ndi kulinganiza kwa magulu ankhondo m'magulu aku America. Koma m'pofunika kuumirira, chifukwa ndalama za anthu ndi njira yosiyana ndi yomwe, monga momwe ndikudziwira, sitikuyeserabe.
Kodi chikuchitika ndi chiyani pakupanga mfundo zachuma za demokalase ndipo ndi chiyani chomwe chimayambitsa masinthidwe?
Ndikanena za kusintha koyambira ndi zisankho za 2016, zomwe zidadabwitsa anthu ambiri kuphatikiza akuluakulu a chipani cha Democratic Party. Kusankhidwa kwa [Donald] Trump kunabweretsa kunyumba kwa iwo kuti panali ndalama zenizeni zandale panjira ya Obama yoyendetsera chuma.
Ndizofunikira kuti chisankho cha 2016 sichinayambike chifukwa cha kuchepa kwachuma, koma ndi kuchepa kwachuma komwe kudachitika chifukwa cha Fed kukweza chiwongola dzanja. Izi zinakhudza kufunikira kwa mayiko ambiri padziko lapansi komanso m'madera ena ku United States. Pakhala pali zoyesayesa zodalirika zogwirizanitsa kuchepa kumeneku ndi chisankho cha 2016, chomwe chinabweretsa chidziwitso chochuluka pa zomwe zimatchedwa "imfa zachisoni" komanso lingaliro lakuti dziko lalikulu silikuyenda bwino pazachuma. Mwachitsanzo, malo ngati Ohio, omwe anali okonzeka kuvotera Obama ndipo kenako adakhala mayiko ofiira.
Kenako muulamuliro wa a Trump, tinali ndi mfundo zosavuta zandalama kwakanthawi ndipo a Trump adayambitsa ndondomeko yatsopano yazachuma, zomwe zinali zosayembekezereka. Mukabwerera ndikuwerenga mizati ya Paul Krugman cha chaka cha 2018, akuchenjeza kuti misonkho ya Trump ndi bajeti yankhondo zidzakankhira chuma kumalo otentha kwambiri. Koma pamapeto pake zidapangitsa kuti chuma chifike pamavuto omwe sitinawawonepo. Chifukwa chake panali kuyesa, komwe mwina kunali kosavuta kwa purezidenti waku Republican kuti achite poyamba kuposa Democrat, yomwe idasintha malingaliro a aliyense pazomwe zingatheke komanso momwe ulova ungapitirire.
Ndiye pali nkhani yaku China, yomwe ili yofunika kwambiri ngati cholinga chenicheni komanso ngati njira yogulitsira mfundoyi. Pali lingaliro loti, makamaka m'magawo ena anzeru ngati ma semiconductors, kuti capitalism yaku America, monga momwe idapangidwira pano, inali pachiwopsezo chosiya mtundu wa capitalism wokhala ndi mawonekedwe aku China. Ndipo, zachidziwikire, mliriwu udapangitsanso mwayi wogwiritsa ntchito ndalama ndikusamutsira mabanja, kuphatikiza inshuwaransi yowonjezereka ya kusowa kwa ntchito, yomwe mwina inali gawo lofunikira kwambiri la CARES Act.
Nanga bwanji malire? Imodzi yomwe tidatchulapo ndi Fed. Sizikudziwika kuti ndondomeko yazachuma ya Fed idzasemphana bwanji ndi kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka Biden, ngakhale m'mphepete mwake idzapangitsa kuti ndalama zichepe. Chofunikiranso ndi funso ili la kuwongolera ma sheya. Payenera kukhala chifukwa chake ndalamazo sizinachitike zokha. Ndipo ndizomveka kuti gawo labwino la kufotokozera ndizokonda za anthu omwe amawongolera zosankha zamalonda. Ndipo ngati ndi choncho, kodi oyang'anira a Biden ndiwokonzeka kukumana ndi anthu omwe akhala akupanga chisankho chochepetsa ndalama?
Ndikufuna kukhala ndi chiyembekezo pano, koma chiwonetsero chamkangano wantchito ya njanji chinapereka chisonyezero champhamvu kuti ngati pali chilichonse chomwe eni ake amatsutsa mwamphamvu, ngakhale chinthu chofunikira kwambiri monga tchuthi cholipiridwa, zonena zonse padziko lapansi zokhuza kulimba kwa chain chain. kapena kumanganso gulu lapakati sikunakhalepo kanthu. Biden ndi [Nancy] Pelosi anali zowawa kukana ufulu wofunikirawu kwa ogwira ntchito. Simukufuna kufotokoza zambiri kuchokera ku chitsanzo chimodzi, koma ndidawonadi ngati mayeso omveka bwino, ndipo ndidawona chidwi chochepa chokumana ndi anthu omwe amawongolera mabungwe.
Militarism ndi Inflation
Mwachiwonekere pali chowopsa chachikulu pakutsitsimuka uku kwa mfundo zamafakitale zomangidwa ndi Cold War yatsopano ndi China - zoopsa zazikulu kwambiri, zomwe ndi nkhondo yankhondo ndi China. Koma ndikufunanso kufunsa, kodi kugogomezera kwa geopolitics kumachepetsa bwanji komwe pakati-kumanzere akulolera kulowererapo kuti akulitse mphamvu zobala?
Ndi funso losangalatsa kwambiri. Mudanenapo za CHIPS Act m'mbuyomu, yomwe imayang'ana pamagetsi apamwamba kwambiri, omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito pazida zapamwamba za zida. Ndi Inflation Reduction Act, mukuwonanso kufunitsitsa kuchita izi mu gawo la mphamvu ndi kusintha kwa mphamvu, zomwenso ndi zomwe okonza chitetezo ku America adaziwona ngati nkhani yokhudzana ndi chitetezo kwa zaka zambiri tsopano.
Zisanachitike zisankho zapakati pa chaka, anthu ambiri amakhulupirira kuti kukwera kwa mitengo kungapangitse ma Democrats a Congress kukhala owopsa kwambiri. Komabe, funde limenelo silinakwaniritsidwe. Ngakhale sindikuganiza kuti izi zikutanthauza kuti anthu sadera nkhawa za kukwera kwa mitengo, chifukwa zikuwonekeratu kuti anthu ambiri akuda nkhawa ndi kukwera kwa mitengo, zimasonyeza kuti zinthu zina zinali zofunika kwambiri. Pakhala chidwi kwambiri, ine ndikuganiza moyenera analipira Dobbs [v. Jackson Women's Health Organisation] ndi mfundo yakuti anthu nthawi zambiri amakhumudwitsidwa ndi kunyanyira kwa chikhalidwe cha mbali yoyenera. Koma kodi mphamvu zachuma mwina zinalinso pa ntchito, monga kuti ulova sunawombere padenga momwe udachitikira pambuyo pa ngozi ya 2008?
Eya, ndikuganiza kuti chinali mayeso osangalatsa a zomwe zimatchedwa kutchuka, zolimbikitsidwa ndi anthu ngati David Shor ndi Sean McElwee.
Mothandizidwa ndi SBF [Sam Bankman-Fried].
Ndipo zothandizidwa ndi SBF, koma zomwe mungapezenso m'masamba a Jacobin - Lingaliro loti ndizomvetsa chisoni chifukwa zipangitsa ulova kwa ogwira ntchito, koma ndizowona kuti palibe amene amakonda kukwera kwamitengo, ngakhale ogwira ntchito. Ndikuona ngati nzoona kuti anthu sakonda kukwera mitengo kwa zinthu, maka mukawafunsa funso ngati, kodi mumaikonda inflation? Koma zomwe zidawululidwa zikuwonetsa kuti si vuto lalikulu.
Nthawi zambiri ndimakayikira zoyesa kutanthauzira mopambanitsa zisankho, koma titha kunena kuti zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zosatheka kunena kuti kukwera kwa mitengo, ngakhale pamlingo womwe sitinawonepo kuyambira m'ma 1980, ndikowopsa kwa ndale. , zomwe ziri zochititsa chidwi, chifukwa ndi mtundu wobwerera ku zomwe akatswiri azachuma akumanja a zaka za m'ma 70 adatenga ngati axiomatic - kuti ovota amakhala ngati kukwera kwa mitengo, ndichifukwa chake anthu amapiko abwinowa sankakonda demokalase. . Iwo ankaganiza kuti ngati zingokhala kwa ovota ndi ndale, mudzakhala ndi inflation kosatha.
Tidakhudza izi pang'ono, koma gawo limodzi lomwe pakati-kumanzere kwa mphamvu yokoka sikuwoneka kuti silinasunthike nkomwe ndikuwongolera mitengo. Chifukwa chiyani kuwongolera mitengo, komwe kunali kwabwinobwino mu ndale zaku America, kwatsimikizira zosatheka kukonzanso munthawi yamavutoyi?
Ndine wolemba mbiri mwa maphunziro, ndipo gawo langa la maphunziro linali zachuma zankhondo zaku America. Chifukwa chake ndiyenera kunena kuti ambiri, ngati si ambiri, zoyeserera zaku America zokhala ndi mfundo zamitengo yamalipiro zakhala zikuchitika mkangano wankhondo. Nkhondo Yachiwiri Yapadziko Lonse inali yotchuka kwambiri, koma panalinso kuwongolera mitengo yamalipiro pankhondo yaku Korea. Kenako maulamuliro a Nixon, omwe nthawi zambiri amawatchula kuti ndiwoyamba kuwongolera mitengo yamalipiro amtendere m'mbiri ya America, pomwe adayikidwa mu 1971, pomwe US โโidachita nawo nkhondo yankhondo m'maiko angapo aku Southeast Asia. .
Ndiye pali zochitika zomwe zimachitika mobwerezabwereza m'mbiri yazachuma yaku America pomwe anthu amafunsa kuti: Tidachita izi nthawi yankhondo chifukwa chiyani sitingathe kutero panthawi yamtendere? Palibe chifukwa chabwino. Koma nthawi zambiri zimakhala zovuta kupanga chikhalidwe chofanana ndi nkhondo. Mukuwona izi ndi nkhondo yolimbana ndi umphawi komanso ndi Green New Deal. Koma mwanjira ina palibe chomwe chingalowe m'malo mwa nkhondo popangitsa anthu amphamvu kuchita zinthu zomwe sakanachita mwanjira ina.
Ndipo izi zikugwiranso ntchito kuwongolera mitengo, nawonso. Ndikuganiza kuti lingaliro la kuwongolera mitengo ndilotsutsana ndi malingaliro akuluakulu aku America okhudza mphamvu zapadera pazachuma, ndipo zakhala zovuta kuthana ndi chitsutso chimenecho.
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
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