Njira yopewera 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) ya kutentha kwa dziko - cholinga chathu kwa zaka zoposa 10 - sikungatheke: tatulutsa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha kwambiri ndipo tili panjira yotentha kwambiri. M’chaka cha 2000, tinali ndi zisankho zambiri zokhudza kutentha kwa dziko, koma m’malo mochepetsa utsi m’njira zosiyanasiyana, tinasankha kufulumizitsa. Kutulutsa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha padziko lonse lapansi kwawonjezeka chaka chonse kupatula chaka chimodzi kuyambira 2000, ndipo kuchuluka kwa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha kumeneku kwachepetsa zisankho zathu.
Podutsa madigiri 3.6 F, tikhala tayambitsa "kusokoneza koopsa kwa chikhalidwe cha nyengo". Ngati tilola kuti kutentha kufikire, tinene, 7.2 digiri F (4 digiri C) ya kutentha, mwina tipanga dziko lachisokonezo, mwachitsanzo, dziko lokhala ndi malo osakhazikika (The World Bank Report, 2012).
Popanda kuchepetsa kwambiri mpweya woipa posachedwapa, tidzakhala ndi kutentha kwambiri - 10.8 degrees F (6 degrees C) ndi 2100 (PriceWaterhouseCoopers 11/5/12). CIA ndiyomwe imathandizira lipoti lomwe limati "zochitika zanyengo zidzabweretsa zotsatira zomwe zimaposa mphamvu zamagulu okhudzidwa kapena (the) dongosolo lapadziko lonse lapansi loyang'anira ..." (National Research Council 2013).
Machenjezo a mabungwe amenewo ndi ena akusonyeza maphunziro asayansi ambirimbiri amene amaunikanso ndi anzawo.
Masiku ano, anthu padziko lonse lapansi akuyang'anizana ndi chisankho chofunikira: kuchepetsa mpweya, kapena kuvomereza kutentha kwa mapulaneti komwe kungapangitse dziko lathu kukhala losazindikirika.
Mkhalidwe wovuta komanso nthawi ya chisankhochi sichinalandiridwe bwino. Monga dziko, sitikudziwa bwino za kutentha kwa dziko. Chifukwa cha kusadziwa kumeneku, anthu aku America akuwoneka kuti sangafune ndikutsatira mfundo zochepetsera kwambiri CO2 ndi mpweya wina wowonjezera kutentha. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, China, India ndi mayiko ena akunena kuti adzapitirizabe kuwonjezeka kwa mpweya mpaka pafupifupi 2025 kapena 30. Popanda mgwirizano wogwira mtima wapadziko lonse, mpweya, ndipo chifukwa chake kutentha kwa dziko, kudzapitirira kuwonjezeka.
Kuyesera mobwerezabwereza kuchepetsa ndi kuchepetsa mpweya wapadziko lonse kwakhala kulephera kodziwikiratu - misonkhano yaposachedwa ya Doha idayimitsa kulemba pangano latsopano lochepetsera mpweya mpaka 2015, ndikuyimitsa tsiku la malire oyambira ku 2020. tsiku lofuna kuchepetsa kutulutsa mpweya padziko lonse likhoza kuphonya.
Kugulitsa ndi kugulitsa kuchepetsa kutulutsa mpweya sikunagwire ntchito - osati ku EU, osati kumpoto chakum'mawa kwa US - kulikonse. Kutulutsa kwatsitsidwa m'magawo ochepa pomwe misonkho ya kaboni idakhazikitsidwa (m'maiko ena a EU, Australia, ndi Costa Rica). Komabe, m'mawu omveka, palibe ulamuliro wapadziko lonse wokhudza kutulutsa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha: palibe US kapena bungwe lililonse lapadziko lonse lapansi lomwe latengerapo mfundo kapena mapangano kuti achepetse mpweya wabwino.
Padziko lonse lapansi, kutulutsa mpweya wa kaboni sikukutha, komanso nyengo. Ndi tsoka la commons writ lalikulu.
Tiyerekeze kuti palibe chomwe tingachite posachedwapa kuti tichepetse kwambiri komanso pang'onopang'ono kutulutsa mpweya. Izi zitha kubweretsa kutentha kwa 7.2 F pofika chaka cha 2060, ndipo kudzakhala kutentha kwapadziko lonse lapansi, koma kudzakhala kochepa kwambiri panyanja (70% ya dziko lapansi) ndi zina zambiri pamtunda. Mizinda yakutali ndi mizinda yonse ikuluikulu ingakhale yotentha kwambiri; Kum'mawa kwa tawuni ya kumpoto kwa America kutentha kumatha kukhala 18 ° F kuposa kutentha kwamasiku ano kwachilimwe (100 - 110). Kutentha kwa 118 mpaka 128 F ndi kutentha kwanthawi yachilimwe kwa anthu ambiri.
Masiku ano madera aulimi akhoza kutenthedwa ndi madigiri 9 - 14 F, zomwe zimabweretsa kuchepa kwakukulu kwa zokolola; ntchito zambiri zaulimi zomwe zilipo zidzafunika kusamuka mobwerezabwereza kumadera omwe ali ndi nyengo yabwino kwambiri ya kutentha, kuwala kwa dzuwa, chinyezi ndi dothi.
Dziko lotentha la madigiri 7.2 F "likhoza kukhala lomwe madera, mizinda ndi mayiko angakumane ndi zosokoneza kwambiri, zowonongeka ndi zowonongeka, ndi zoopsa zambiri zomwe zimafalikira mosagwirizana" (World Bank Report 2012). Malo achonde okhala ndi madzi ambiri masiku ano angakhale ouma. Madzi othirira, omwe tsopano akuyanjanitsidwa ndi chipale chofewa ndi/kapena ayezi, amatha kuchepa pamene ayezi amasungunuka ndipo chipale chofewa chimalephera kuwunjikana. Othawa kwawo chifukwa cha nyengo, ambiri, angayese kusamukira kwina, kumayambitsa chipwirikiti. Katundu wamtengo wapatali masiku ano (malo odyetserako ziweto, malo osangalalira, nkhalango, minda, matauni ndi mizinda ina) akhoza kukhala opanda pake - kapena opanda pake. M’nkhalango zotentha ndi zouma kwambiri, moto wofalikira ungakhale wofala, ndipo zamoyo zidzasintha; M'madera a PNW, nyengo imakhala ikusunthira kumpoto pafupifupi makilomita atatu pachaka kapena kuposa.
Njira zina zaulimi/zachilengedwe padziko lonse lapansi zitha kugwa. Kusungunuka kwa permafrost, kutulutsa methane (wowonjezera kutentha kwa gasi) wochulukirapo kumatha kufulumizitsa kwambiri kutentha. Zosintha zimatha kusintha kuchoka pakukula kupita kukusintha; kusintha kungakhale kosayerekezeka. Palibe umboni wosonyeza kuti dziko lotentha la 7.2 F lingakhale lokhazikika; palibe zochitika zakale zakusintha kwachilengedwe kofulumira kotere monga momwe kutentha kwa madigiri 7.2 kungabweretse.
Kuchuluka kwa mpweya wa CO2 mumlengalenga (392 ppm) ndikwambiri kuposa umboni wanyengo komanso malo oyambira mbiri yakale ukusonyeza kuti zachitika nthawi ina iliyonse zaka 15 miliyoni zapitazi.
Popanda kuchepetsedwa kwatsopano, kwakukulu kwa mpweya, titha kukhala ndi kutentha kwa 7.2 F pofika 2060, zaka 47 zokha kuchokera pano.
M'malingaliro mwanga, zopinga zazikulu zochepetsera mpweya ndizowirikiza katatu. Choyamba, phindu lalikulu limapangidwa kuchokera ku mafuta oyaka. (Zina mwa mapindu amenewo amawonjezeredwa m’mapepala abodza amene amagwiritsidwa ntchito kukayikira sayansi.) Chachiŵiri, zithunzithunzi za m’tsogolo pansi pa 1) kuwonjezereka kwa kutentha kwa dziko kapena 2) popanda kutentha koma ndi mphamvu zochepa kwambiri, sizimawoneka zenizeni kwa ambiri. - zikuwoneka zosamvetsetseka; zosatheka; matenda a dystopian. Chachitatu, chikhalidwe chathu chimathandizira malingaliro odana ndi kufunsa, sayansi ndi kulingalira - malingaliro omwe nthawi zambiri amazikidwa mu chikondi chapagulu chambiri chambiri chomwe chimaganiziridwa.
Popeza kuti maboma sadzachitapo kanthu, kusintha kungabwere kuchokera kwa anthu omenyera ufulu wa anthu.
Magulu ena oterowo akopa matauni awo kuti ayambe kugwiritsa ntchito zongowonjezeranso komanso kuti azidzipezera okha magetsi, makamaka atachoka pa gridi ya hydrocarbon. Mzinda wanu ukhoza kuchitanso izi, ngati mukakamiza khonsolo ya mzinda wake kuti ikhazikitse ma solar ndi ma turbines amphepo.
Zomera za malasha ndizowononga kwambiri ndipo pafupifupi zonse zikuphwanya lamulo la Clean Air Act. Gulu la Sierra Club lakhala likusumira ena olakwa kwambiri, zomwe zidapangitsa kutsekedwa kwamitengo ndikugwiritsa ntchito gasi wachilengedwe woyeretsa kapena zongowonjezera m'malo mwake. Ogwira ntchito ayenera kutulutsa zoyimitsa zonse kuti atseke zomera zamalasha.
Nazi zina (zambiri) zomwe mungachite kuti muthe kuthana ndi vutoli.
Nthawi zambiri, ndizotheka kungogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zochepa. Yandikirani kufupi ndi ntchito kapena samukira kumizinda yomwe ili ndi mayendedwe abwino a anthu, Mukatha kupalasa njinga kupita komwe mukupita, yesani kutero (izi ndi zabwinonso pa thanzi lanu). Onetsetsani kuti nyumba yanu ndi insulated.
Chachiwiri, dziwani kuti palibe kusintha kulikonse, komanso kulimbikitsana kwakukulu kuti mupitilize kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta oyaka kale. Sinthani kuzindikira kumeneko kukhala zochita. Sinthani moyo wanu poyika mphamvu zanu kukakamiza boma lathu kuthana ndi kutentha. Yesetsani kuletsa: pemphani anansi anu kuti agwirizane nanu kuti achitepo kanthu kuti US ichite zoyenera potengera kuchepetsa kutulutsa kwenikweni.
Chachitatu, malingaliro aposachedwa okhudza zomwe ndi "zokhazikika" ndi "zobiriwira" ndizosakwanira. Iwo sanagwire ntchito. Utsi ukupitiriza kukwera. Mikhalidwe yathu imafuna kusintha kwakukulu.
Kutentha kwapadziko lonse ndi kuchepa kwa mphamvu za mphamvu sizikutanthauza tsogolo lakutali - zotsatira za kutentha kosasunthika ndi kuchepa kwa mphamvu zidzasokoneza kwambiri miyoyo ya ana athu ndikubweretsa dziko lachisokonezo kwambiri.
Tom Giesen ndi mlangizi wa chilimwe adjunct ndi wothandizira kafukufuku ku yunivesite ya Oregon, ndipo adzaphunzitsa Global Warming Preparedness (PPPM 399) chilimwe chino.
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