Akuluakulu amphamvu ndi olamulira ankhanza otsala a Chiarabu adakhalanso usiku wachiwiri osagona. Kodi posakhalitsa omasulidwa a Tripoli adzasintha bwanji kukhala omasula a Damasiko ndi Aleppo ndi Homs? Kapena Amman? Kapena Yerusalemu? Kapena Bahrain kapena Riyadh? Sizofanana, ndithudi.
Arab Spring-Summer-Autumn yatsimikizira osati kuti malire akale a atsamunda amakhalabe osagwirizana - msonkho woyipa kwa imperialism, ndikuganiza - koma kuti kusintha kulikonse kuli ndi mawonekedwe ake. Ngati zipolowe zonse za Aarabu zili ndi gulu lawo la ofera chikhulupiriro, zipanduko zina zimakhala zachiwawa kwambiri kuposa zina. Monga momwe Saif al-Islam Gaddafi ananenera kumayambiriro kwa kugwa kwake, "Libya si Tunisia, si Igupto…Idzakhala nkhondo yapachiweniweni. Padzakhala kukhetsa magazi m'misewu." Ndipo panali.
Kenako timayang'ana mpira wa kristalo. Libya idzakhala dziko la Middle East lamphamvu - pokhapokha titakakamiza ntchito zachuma monga mtengo wa mabomba a Nato "omasula" - komanso dziko lochepa la Africa, lachiarabu lomwe tsopano Gaddafi akusowa pakati ndi kumwera kwa Africa. Itha kupatsira Algeria ndi Morocco ndi ufulu wake. Mayiko a Gulf adzakhala okondwa - mpaka pomwe - popeza ambiri amamuwona Gaddafi ngati wosakhazikika m'maganizo komanso woyipa. Koma olamulira ankhanza achiarabu omwe sakhala nawo ndi masewera owopsa pamene olamulira achiarabu omwe sanasankhidwe alowa nawo. Ndani tsopano akukumbukira nkhondo yoiwalika ya 1977 yomwe Anwar Sadat adatumiza ophulitsa mabomba ake kuti akaphwanye ma airbase a Gaddafi - ma airbase omwewo a Nato akhala akuukira miyezi yapitayi - Israeli atachenjeza. pulezidenti wa ku Egypt kuti Gaddafi akukonzekera kupha? Koma ulamulilo wankhanza wa Gaddafi unaposa Sadat ndi zaka 30.
Komabe monga ena onse, Libya idadwala khansa ya dziko la Aarabu: zachuma - ndi makhalidwe - ziphuphu. Kodi tsogolo lidzakhala losiyana? Takhala nthawi yochuluka kwambiri kulemekeza kulimba mtima kwa "omenyera ufulu" aku Libya pamene adadutsa m'chipululu, nthawi yochepa kwambiri ndikufufuza chikhalidwe cha chilombocho, Bungwe la National Transitional National Council lomwe limadziwika kuti mtsogoleri wake, Mustafa Abdul Jalil, akadali akadali. sanathe kufotokoza ngati amzake adagwirizana pakupha wamkulu wa gulu lawo mwezi watha. Kale, a Kumadzulo akupereka maphunziro a demokalase ku New Libya, akuuza utsogoleri wake wosasankhidwa momwe angapewere chisokonezo chomwe ife tokha tidapanga ku Iraqi pamene "tinawamasula" zaka zisanu ndi zitatu zapitazo. Ndani adzalandira backhanders mu ulamuliro watsopano - demokalase kapena ayi - ikadzakhazikitsidwa?
Ndipo monga momwe maulamuliro onse atsopano ali ndi anthu akuda akale - Germany ya Adenauer mofanana ndi Iraq ya Maliki - choncho Libya iyenera kulandira mafuko a Gaddafi. Zochitika ku Green Square dzulo zinali zofanana kwambiri ndi kupembedza kopenga komwe kunawonetsedwa pamalo omwewo a Gaddafi masabata angapo apitawo. Ndiyeno, kumbukirani tsiku limene De Gaulle anafunsidwa ndi wothandizira mmene makamu a anthu amene anam’patsa moni pambuyo pa kumasulidwa kwa France mu 1944 anali ochuluka monga momwe makamuwo anaombera Pétain m’milungu ingapo m’mbuyomo. "Ils sont les mêmes," De Gaulle akuti adayankha. "Ndi omwewo."
Osati zonse. Kodi posakhalitsa dziko lidzagogoda pachitseko cha Abdulbaset al-Megrahi yemwe akuti wamwalira, wophulitsa bomba ku Lockerbie - ngati anali wolakwa - kuti adziwe chinsinsi cha moyo wake wautali komanso zochita zake mkati mwachinsinsi cha Gaddafi? Kodi posakhalitsa omasula a Tripoli adzalandira manja awo pamafayilo a mafuta a Gaddafi ndi mautumiki akunja kuti adziwe zinsinsi za chikondi cha Blair-Sarkozy-Berlusconi ndi mlembi wa Green Book? Kapena kodi ma spooks aku Britain ndi French adzawagonjetsa?
Ndipo posachedwa, tiyenera kufunsa, anthu aku Europe asanafune kudziwa chifukwa chake, ngati Nato yachita bwino kwambiri ku Libya - monga momwe Cameron ndi abwenzi ake amanenera - sizingagwiritsidwe ntchito motsutsana ndi magulu ankhondo a Assad ku Syria, pogwiritsa ntchito Kupro ngati gawo. zonyamulira ndege, kuwononga akasinja 8,000 a boma ndi magalimoto okhala ndi zida pamene akuzinga mizinda ya dzikolo. Kapena tiyenera kumvera anansi athu; Israeli akuyembekezerabe mwachinsinsi (monga momwe adachitira mwamanyazi ku Egypt) kuti wolamulira wankhanzayo apulumuke kuti akhale bwenzi ndikupanga mtendere womaliza pa Golan.
Israeli, yomwe yakhala yokhotakhota komanso yosakhwima poyankha kudzutsidwa kwa Aarabu - chifukwa chiyani padziko lapansi atsogoleri ake sanalandire kusintha kwa Aigupto, kutsegulira manja awo kwa anthu omwe adawonetsa kuti akufuna demokalase yomwe Israeli amadzitamandira nayo nthawi zonse, m'malo mowombera. Amwalira asilikali 5 aku Egypt pakuwomberana kumene ku Gaza? - ali ndi zambiri zoti aganizire.
Ben Ali wapita, Mubarak wapita, Saleh wapita pang'onopang'ono, Gaddafi anagonjetsedwa, Assad pangozi, Abdullah wa ku Jordan akukumanabe ndi chitsutso, mafumu ochepa a Sunni a Bahrain akuyembekezerabe kudzipha kulamulira kwamuyaya. Izi ndi zochitika zazikulu kwambiri za m'mbiri zomwe Aisrayeli adayankha ndi mtundu wodabwitsa, waudani. Pa nthawi yomwe Israeli atha kunena kuti oyandikana nawo achiarabu akungofuna ufulu womwe Israeli ali nawo kale - kuti pali ubale wa demokalase womwe ungathe kupitirira malire - umasweka ndikumanga madera ambiri kudziko la Aarabu ndikupitiriza kutero. delegitime yokha pamene akuimba mlandu dziko kuyesera kuliwononga.
Koma ufumu wa Ottoman sungaiwale pa ola lovuta kwambiri. Pakutha kwa mphamvu zake, mutha kuyenda kuchokera ku Morocco kupita ku Constantinople popanda mapepala. Ndi ufulu ku Syria ndi Jordan, tinatha kuyenda kuchokera ku Algeria kupita ku Turkey ndi kupita ku Ulaya popanda visa. Ufumu wa Ottoman unabadwanso! Kupatula Arabu, ndithudi. Onetsetsani kuti adzafunikabe ma visa.
Sitinafikebe. Kodi ma Shiites aku Bahrain ndi anthu osawerengeka a Saudi, atakhala pamwamba pa chuma chambiri, afunsa chifukwa chiyani sangathe kulamulira maiko awo ndikukakamira kuti agwetse olamulira awo? Maher al-Assad, mchimwene wake wa Bashar komanso wamkulu wa 4th Brigade ya Syria, ayenera kuti adamvera foni yomaliza ya al-Jazeera kwa Mohammed Gaddafi. "Tinalibe nzeru komanso kuwoneratu zam'tsogolo," Mohammed adadandaula kudziko lonse mfuti zisanadutse mawu ake. "Ali m'nyumba!" Kenako: "Mulungu ndi wamkulu." Ndipo mzerewo unafa.
Mtsogoleri aliyense wosasankhidwa wa Chiarabu - kapena mtsogoleri aliyense wachisilamu "wosankhidwa" mwachinyengo - adzakhala atalingalira mawuwo. Nzeru ndithudi ndi khalidwe losoweka kwambiri ku Middle East, luso lodziwiratu zam'tsogolo lomwe Aarabu ndi Azungu onse anyalanyaza. Kum'maŵa ndi Kumadzulo - ngati atha kugawidwa mopanda ulemu - onse ataya mphamvu yoganizira zam'tsogolo. Maola 24 otsatirawa ndizomwe zili zofunika. Kodi mawa pakhala zionetsero ku Hama? Kodi Obama anganene chiyani pa nthawi yoyamba? Kodi Cameron anganene chiyani kwa dziko? Malingaliro a Domino ndi chinyengo. Arab Spring ikhala kwa zaka zambiri. Ife kulibwino tiganizire za izo. Palibe "mapeto a mbiri".
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
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