Chilala choopsa ku Horn of Africa, chomwe chapha ana osachepera 30,000 ndipo chikukhudza anthu pafupifupi 12 miliyoni, makamaka ku Somalia, ndi zotsatira za zochitika za nyengo zomwe zimagwirizanitsidwa ndi kusintha kwa nyengo ndi kutentha kwa dziko, asayansi a zachilengedwe akutero.
"Chilala chomwe chilipo ku Horn of Africa chakhumudwitsidwa ndi zochitika za El Niรฑo ndi La Niรฑa m'nyanja ya Pacific, zomwe zimasokoneza kayendedwe kabwino ka madzi ofunda ndi ozizira ndi mpweya, ndikusokoneza chinyontho kudutsa kum'mwera kwa dziko lapansi," Friedrich- Wilhelm Gerstenarbe, wasayansi wamkulu ku Germany Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK, pambuyo pa dzina lachijeremani), adauza IPS.
Zochitika zonsezi ndi gawo la nyengo yakumwera kwa nyengo, komwe kumachitika kudutsa nyanja ya Pacific Ocean yotentha zaka zisanu kapena zisanu ndi ziwiri zilizonse. Amadziwika ndi kusiyanasiyana kwa kutentha kwa madera otentha kum'mawa kwa Pacific - kutentha kapena kuzizira komwe kumadziwika kuti El Niรฑo ndi La Niรฑa motsatana - komanso kusintha kwa mpweya kumadzulo kwa Pacific.
Zochitika zonsezi zimaphatikizidwa: gawo lotentha la nyanja, El Niรฑo, limatsagana ndi kuthamanga kwa mpweya kumadzulo kwa Pacific, pomwe gawo lozizira, La Niรฑa, limatsagana ndi kutsika kwa mpweya kumadzulo kwa Pacific.
Zinthu zoterezi zingakhudze makamaka zigawo za kumpoto kwa Equator, monga Horn of Africa. Anthu pafupifupi 12 miliyoni akukumana ndi njala m'chigawo chonse cha Djibouti, Sudan, South Sudan ndi madera ena a Uganda, kupatula Somalia. Pakadali pano, njala idalengezedwa ku Somalia kokha, dziko lopanda boma logwira ntchito.
"El Niรฑo ndi La Niรฑa zimakulitsa nyengo kumadera akumwera kwa dziko lapansi, kukulitsa nyengo yamvula m'madera ena, makamaka ku Asia ndi Australia, komanso chilala m'madera ena, makamaka ku Africa," adatero Gerstenkarbe.
Gerstenarbe akuti kusintha kwa nyengo ndi kukwera kwa kutentha kwa dziko komwe kumadza chifukwa cha izi kwawonjezera El Niรฑo ndi La Niรฑa, zomwe zachititsa kuti kusefukira kwa madzi ku Pakistan ndi Australia, komanso chilala ku Horn of Africa.
Zochitika zonsezi zapangitsa kuti m'zaka ziwiri zapitazi kukhale nyengo yamvula kwambiri komanso kutentha kwambiri ku East Africa.
Malinga ndi bungwe la US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Niรฑa kuyambira 2008 yachititsa kuti madzi azitentha kwambiri m'nyanja ya Pacific, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti "mvula ikhale yotsika kwambiri pakatikati pa Pacific equatorial."
Magawo ozizira awa (omwe amatchedwa zigawo za La Niรฑa), NOAA ikuwonjezera, imadziwika ndi kutsika kocheperako kuposa kutsika kwanthawi zonse ku Indonesia ndi kumpoto kwa Australia komanso kupitilira kuthamanga kwanthawi zonse kum'mawa kwa Pacific otentha.
M'nyengo yozizira kachitidwe kabwino ka mvula kotentha ndi kayendedwe ka mpweya mumlengalenga zimasokonekera. Madzi ozizira kwambiri a m'chigawo chapakati cha Pacific Ocean otchedwa equatorial amalepheretsa kugwa kwa mitambo ndi mvula, makamaka pakati pa November ndi April, kutanthauza kuti nthawi ya mvula ya m'derali.
Chochitikachi chimayambitsa kutentha kwambiri ku East Africa. Kuponderezedwa kwa mvula ndi kutentha kwapamwamba chaka chino kwadzetsa chilala choipitsitsa ku Horn of Africa kwa zaka 60.
"Tsoka ilo, chifukwa chakukula kwa La Niรฑa, tiyenera kulingalira za kukula kwa chipululu ku Africa, komanso chilala chochulukirapo m'dera lozungulira Horn of Africa," adawonjezera Gerstenarbe.
Jean-Cyril Dagorn, yemwe amayang'anira za chilengedwe ndi chilungamo cha zachuma ku nthambi ya ku France ya bungwe lothandizira anthu la Oxfam, adavomereza kuti kusintha kwa nyengo ndi kutentha kwa dziko zikukulitsa nyengo yoipa ku Africa.
"Kwa zaka ziwiri, mvula yakhala yotsika kwambiri ku East Africa, chifukwa cha La Niรฑa," a Dagorn adauza IPS. "Koma chaka chino, chilalacho chafika poipa kwambiri, zomwe zikuyambitsa tsoka lothandizira anthu ku Somalia ndi madera ena oyandikana nawo."
Dagorn adati nyengo yamvula yomwe ikubwera, yomwe ikuyenera kuyamba mu Okutobala, ikhoza kukulitsa vutoli. Dagorn anachenjeza kuti: โMvula yamkuntho yomwe imagwa pa nthaka youma kwambiri idzakokolola nthaka yachonde kwambiri, zomwe zikuchititsa kuti vuto la chakudya likhale lalikulu kwambiri.
Dagorn adati mpaka pano chilala chakhala chikuchitika zaka zisanu mpaka zisanu ndi ziwiri zilizonse ku Horn of Africa, koma sichinachitikepo ndi momwe zinthu zilili masiku ano.
โTikuyerekeza kuti chifukwa cha kusintha kwa nyengo komanso chilala chomwe chimayambitsa, zokolola zaulimi mโderali zitsika ndi 20 peresenti mโzaka zikubwerazi, makamaka mโminda ya chimanga ndi nyemba,โ adatero Dagorn.
Kupatula apo, iye adati aweta ndi abusa a ngโombe amโderali ataya ziweto zawo pakati pa 30 ndi 60 pa XNUMX alionse chifukwa cha nyengo yoipa, zomwe zikuwonjezera vuto la chakudya.
Dagorn adati ndondomeko zaulimi za mayiko omwe akhudzidwa ndi chilala, komanso mgwirizano wapadziko lonse walephera kuthetsa vutoli.
Bungwe la United Nations lati pakufunika ndalama zokwana 1.6 biliyoni za euro kuti athane ndi vutoli. "Koma France, mwachitsanzo, yangopereka ma euro ochepera 10 miliyoni," adatero Dagorn. "Inalengeza misonkhano yofulumira ya opereka ndalama - zomwe sizinachitikepo."
Dagorn adati mabungwe othandiza anthu akugula ngโombe zomwe zili bwino kuti agawire nyamayo mโmadera omwe akhudzidwa kwambiri ndi njalayi.
Gerstengarbe akuti kusintha kwa nyengo ndi zochitika zomwe zikugwirizana nazo, ndi machitidwe oipa a ulimi monga kudyetsera ziweto mopitirira muyeso, zikuchititsa kuti chipululutso chichuluke mu Africa. "Zipululu zikukulirakulira padziko lonse lapansi ndi masikweya kilomita 150 patsiku, makamaka ku Africa konse."
M'mwezi wa Julayi, wamkulu wa bungwe la United States loona zachitukuko padziko lonse lapansi, a Rajiv Shah, adati kusintha kwanyengo kwapangitsa kuti mavutowa achuluke.
"Palibe kukayikira kuti kukula kotentha komanso kowuma kumwera kwa Sahara ku Africa kwachepetsa kulimba kwa maderawa," Shah adauza atolankhani aku US. "Kusintha kwa nyengo kwathandizira vutoli, popanda funso."
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
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