Gwero: Counterpunch
Roger Hallam, woyambitsa mnzake wa Extinction Rebellion/XR posachedwapa anafunsa Peter Carter, MD, yemwe ali ndi dzina lodziwika bwino - Katswiri wa IPCC Reviewer wa Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Mafunsowa adachitika kuti atsimikize zomwe sayansi imanena za momwe zinthu zilili, makamaka thanzi la dziko lapansi.
Zotsatirazi ndi ulalo wa vidiyo wa kuyankhulana kwabwinoko, kuphatikiza chuma chambiri cha zochitika zasayansi zamakono (nthawi: 41:21 Nov. 11, 2020):
Kuonjezera apo, mawu ofotokozera a kuyankhulana akutsatira apa, koma sakuchita chilungamo pa kutsindika monga momwe adafotokozera:
Dr. Carter pano akuwunikanso 6th Kuwunika (AR6) kwa IPCC. Kuphatikiza apo, adawunikiranso Lipoti Lapadera la 1.5 ° C la IPCC la 2018 lomwe lidawulula zenizeni zatsopano zokhudzana ndi vuto lanyengo padziko lonse lapansi. Chotsatira chake, kuya ndi kufalikira kwa ngozi yeniyeni kukudziwika padziko lonse lapansi. Mfundo yakuti 1.5 ° C pamwamba pa chiyambi tsopano ndiye malire apamwamba a kutentha kwa dziko akwaniritsa zambiri kuposa kungotembenuza mitu.
Dr. Carter: “Tili pachiwopsezo chanyengo, pavuto lalikulu kwambiri padziko lapansi lomwe silinachitikepo… ndivuto lanyengo yathu, ngozi yapanyanja yathu… iyi si imodzi mwazovuta zambiri, iyi ndi vuto kwa anthu onse. "
Zomwe zikubwera 26th COP (Conference of the Parties) yomwe idzachitika Novembara 2021 ku Glasgow ili padoko la asayansi ndi akuluakulu aboma, komanso zokonda zandalama zazikulu, kugogoda mitu m'malo ovomerezeka kuti akambirane za dziko lapansi. Ngati zonse zikuyenda molingana ndi dongosolo, monga ma COP akale, zokonda zachuma zitha kusokoneza zomwe zikanakhala zolosera za dziko lapansi mu magawo osiyanasiyana akugwa, ma terminal ena.
Tawonapo mchitidwewu (COP) ukubwerezedwa mobwerezabwereza, kuyambira COP1 ku Berlin mu 1995, pomwe mwambo uliwonse womaliza wa COP umapeza Maphwando akuthokozana, akumenya kumbuyo, pamsonkhano wina wopambana wanyengo wa 20,000. -30,000 akatswiri athanzi adachotsedwa chifukwa chogwiritsa ntchito mopitilira muyeso Beluga caviar ndi Domaine de la Romanee-Conti, koma pambuyo pake mpweya wa kaboni ukuwonjezeka chaka chotsatira, ndipo chaka chilichonse pambuyo pake. Kuyamikira chiyani?
Zowonjezereka, kuchuluka kwa mpweya wa CO2 pachaka ndi + 60% kuyambira COP1, sikuchepa, sikutsika, ngakhale kamodzi. Pambuyo pa zaka 25 za dongosolo lofananalo, sizitengera luntha kuzindikira kuti ntchito yotengera kunyumba kuchokera ku ma COP onse 25 modabwitsa imasandulika kutsutsa mawu a mission a Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Dr. Carter ali ndi mpando wapadera wakutsogolo kwa sayansi; motero, mfundo zazikuluzikulu zotsatirazi za kuyankhulana kwake zikuphatikizapo mitu yambiri yomwe ikuwonetseratu zolemba zatsopano za nyengo, palibe zabwino, zotsatizana, chaka chilichonse:
Pachiyambi, Dr. Carter anayamikira XR (Extinction Rebellion) chifukwa choumirira pa chandamale cha “kutulutsa mpweya wokwanira m’kati mwa zaka zingapo,” osati zaka makumi angapo. Izi zikugwirizana bwino ndi malingaliro ake kuti nkhani yanyengo iyenera kutchedwa "chowonadi choyipa," ndi zomwe anthu ayenera kukumana nazo.
Mofananamo, Dr. Carter anayamikira Mlembi Wamkulu wa UN António Guterres (Chipwitikizi) chifukwa chonena zoona. M'mawu ake oyamba pagulu okhudza kusintha kwanyengo, adafotokoza momveka bwino kuti: "Kusintha kwanyengo ndikuwopseza kupulumuka kwa moyo padziko lapansi, makamaka anthu."
Pa nthawi yochedwa ino, palibe zosankha zosavuta. Vuto lomwe likubwerali ndi lotopetsa: “Chilichonse chikuyenda mwachangu, chilichonse nchokwera kwambiri. Mwachidule, zonse zikuipiraipira mofulumira.” (Carter)
Kutentha kwapadziko lonse kwasintha kukhala makina otentha kwambiri monga kutentha kwapadziko lonse kwa miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yoyambirira ya 2020 kunalembetsa 1.3°C kuposa poyambira, chiwerengero chomwe chili ndi tanthauzo latsopano kuyambira Lipoti Lapadera la IPCC/2018 la kuopsa kopitilira 1.5°C.
Mogwirizana ndi zimenezi, mwachisawawa amavomereza kuti 2.0°C pamwamba pa malo oyambira ali, m’mawu a Dr. Carter: “N’zosakayikitsa kuti ndi tsoka lalikulu!
Carter: “Dziko la 1.5°C ndi dziko latsoka, mosakayikira.”
Carter: "2 ° C ndi dziko losatheka."
Vutoli limakhala chifukwa kutentha kwapadziko lonse kukuchulukirachulukira, osati kutsika. Kuchuluka kwa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha kwa mumlengalenga, kukukwera kwambiri kuposa kale, kumavomerezedwa ndi asayansi padziko lonse lapansi. Kafukufuku watsopano wofalitsidwa masabata angapo apitawo akuwonetsa mpweya woipa wa mumlengalenga tsopano pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri m'zaka makumi awiri ndi zitatu (23,000,000).
Carter: “Ndi wamisala! Ndi nyengo yopenga ndithu!”
Kuphatikiza apo, pali zidziwitso za CO2 zomwe zimabwerera m'mbuyo mpaka zaka 40 miliyoni, zomwe zimabweretsa chidziwitso chambiri, chomwe ndi: Tikuchulukitsa CO2 mwachangu kuposa nthawi ina iliyonse m'zaka 40 miliyoni zapitazi zomwe zikufulumira kuwirikiza 100 mpaka 200 kuposa. mitengo zachilengedwe maziko. Chotero, malinga ndi kunena kwa Carter: “Zapita patsogolo kotero kuti tsopano tikuyang’ana kupulumuka kwa ana athu, osati kupulumuka kwa adzukulu athu.”
Sikuti mpweya wowonjezera kutentha wa mumlengalenga ukutuluka ngati wamisala. Tikusinthanso chemistry ya m'nyanja kwa nthawi yoyamba kuyambira pomwe anthu adasonkhana mozungulira moto. Katswiri wotsogola padziko lonse wa “kutentha kwa nyanja” wafufuza kuchuluka kwa mabomba a Hiroshima omwe amafanana ndi kutentha komwe kumawonjezedwa panyanja tsiku lililonse. Chomwe chiri chotsatira chachikulu cha kutentha kwa dziko. “Pofika zaka zingapo zapitazo, yankho linali mabomba atatu (3) a Hiroshima pa sekondi imodzi; tsopano ndi mabomba asanu (5) a Hiroshima pa sekondi imodzi… ndipo ndi zenizeni” (Carter).
Ndikosatheka kumvetsetsa manambala ngati amenewo, zomwe zitha kukhala chimodzi mwazopinga zazikulu kuti timvetsetse kuya ndi kufalikira kwa kusintha kwanyengo. Komabe, mabomba 5 a Hiroshima pamphindikati Wow!
Pakali pano, malinga ndi kunena kwa Dr. Carter, chimene chikuyambitsa kusintha kwa nyengo n’chakuti mayiko sachotsa carbon dioxide. Ndili pamtima pavutoli, maiko osachotsa kaboni, dziko lapansi silimachotsa kaboni. Kuphatikiza apo, zomwe zikupangitsa kuti zinthu ziipireipire, kuchuluka kwa de-carbonization kwatsika pazaka zingapo zapitazi.
Carter: "Chotero, tikuchita zinthu moipitsitsa, m'malo mochita bwino."
Nyanja ya Arctic ndi imene imachititsa kuti padzikoli pakhale vuto lalikulu la nyengo. Malingana ndi Carter: Tsopano tikuyang'ana ku Arctic kusintha kuchokera ku gwero lozizirira kupita kumalo otentha pamene ayezi amasungunuka, kutaya mawonekedwe ake akuluakulu a ayezi, omwe m'zaka zapitazi amawonetsera 80-90% ya kuwala kwa dzuwa kubwerera kumlengalenga kumene Zake, koma taonani, ndi kutayika kwa ayezi ambiri, maziko ake ndi amdima, osawunikira, amatenga 80-90% ya kuwala kwa dzuwa, kutentha zinthu kuwirikiza kawiri kapena katatu.
Mu chimodzi mwazochita zazikulu kwambiri za anthu m'mbiri yonse, The Anthropocene Era (nyengo yamakono ya mphamvu yaumunthu) inasintha minyewa yake kuti iwononge maziko a chowunikira chachikulu kwambiri padziko lapansi, madzi oundana a m'nyanja ya Arctic. Ndikosatheka kulingalira momwe ayezi wazaka zambiri, maziko enieni a Arctic, adasungunuka (pafupifupi Chochitika cha Blue Ocean, koma sichinafike) munthawi yochepa kwambiri yazaka makumi angapo chabe. Palibe amene akudziwa zotsatira zake, koma nthawi zambiri, sizimawonedwa bwino ndipo mwina ndizoyipa kwambiri. Ndi gawo la masewera omaliza a kutentha kwa dziko.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) imasindikiza lipoti la Arctic chaka chilichonse. "Mu 2016 zotsatira zake zidali zowopsa koma chodabwitsa sichinanenedwe ndi atolankhani. Lipotilo linanena kuti kutenthetsa, kusungunula, ndi kutulutsa madzi ku Arctic kwachititsa kuti chigawo cha Arctic chichoke pa ‘sink ya carbon’ n’kukhala ‘chotulutsa mpweya. (Carter)
Malinga ndi kunena kwa Dr. Carter re lipoti la NOAA: “Ndi nkhani zoopsa kwambiri padziko lapansi. Uku si kutsanzira; ndi nkhani zowopsa zomwe zikuchitika munthawi yeniyeni. Palibenso njira ina yowonera."
Ndipo si Arctic yokha yomwe yazingidwa: "Tataya Great Barrier Reef," zomwe zakhala zoonekeratu zaka zingapo zapitazi chifukwa cha nyanja yotentha yomwe ikuwononga matanthwe a coral. GBR idakumana ndi bleaching yachitatu pazaka zisanu. "Palibe ngati izi zomwe zidachitikapo ... ku Great Barrier Reef." (Carter)
“Tili ndi miyala yamtengo wapatali iŵiri Padziko Lapansi, (1) nkhalango ya Amazon ndi (2) nyanja. M'nyanja, GBR ndiye chamoyo chachikulu kwambiri padziko lapansi, chowoneka mosavuta kuchokera kunja. Ikufa.” (Carter)
Zimapweteka komanso zovuta kukhulupirira kuti titha kutaya chamoyo chachikulu kwambiri padziko lapansi. Ndizo zonse zomwe munthu ayenera kudziwa kuti chinachake chalakwika kwambiri. Nkhalango zamvula za Amazon ndi GBR ndi ngalande ziwiri zofunika kwambiri padziko lapansi mu mgodi wa malasha. Onse ali ndi nkhawa kwambiri, ndipo akufa.
Dr. Carter adatsata moto wa Amazon kwa zaka zisanu ndi chimodzi kudzera pa malipoti a satellite a NASA. Kumayambiriro kwa mweziwo, “anadabwa kwambiri,” kuyang’anira moto wochuluka m’nkhalango ya Amazon kuposa mmene anali kuwonerapo, “Moto wa njira yowonjezereka… Moto umenewo, ndimaziyang’ana masiku angapo tsopano, tsopano akulowa ndikuwonekera mu Amazon yonse. Moto uwu, mwa njira, ndi dala. "
Ndi moto waukulu umene ukuyaka padziko lonse lapansi, m’kontinenti iliyonse chaka chino, kupatulapo Antarctica, Carter akulangiza maiko a padziko lonse kuti asonkhane pamodzi kuti agwiritse ntchito chitsenderezo cha kuletsa moto wa Amazon, “kuti Amazon isiyidwe mumkhalidwe wina wa kubwezeredwa ndipo osati kuwonongedwa kotheratu.”
Komanso, moto wosalekeza womwe sunachitikepo ukukantha kwambiri ku Siberia. Moto uwu sudzatha. Dziko la Russia limawatcha "Zombie Fires" chifukwa amachepa koma amawotcha pang'onopang'ono mu peat yotentha m'nyengo yozizira ndipo amabwerera ndi kubwezera masika / chilimwe chotsatira, ndikutulutsa CO2 yochuluka mumlengalenga.
Pomaliza, kupulumuka kwachitukuko komwe kumafanana ndi kukhazikitsidwa kwapano kumatanthauza kuti mtundu wodziwika bwino wa capitalism wodziwika bwino umafunika kukonzanso kwakukulu. Anthu padziko lonse lapansi akumana ndi nkhanza komanso nkhanza zomwe zafala, zomwe sizimayendetsedwa bwino, ukapitalizimu wa neoliberal, mwachitsanzo, amafufuza ndikupeza malipiro otsika kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi ndi malamulo ofooka kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi opangira katundu wa anthu olemera kwambiri… ndipo izi ndi zoyambira chabe. .
Malinga ndi Dr. Carter: Tiyenera-tiyenera-tiyenera kusintha momwe dziko likuyendetsera chuma chifukwa dongosolo lomwe lilipo likuwononga dziko lathu mwachangu komanso mwachangu. Ndiko kutha kwachisanu ndi chimodzi, kufulumizitsa pa liwiro losadabwitsa: "Ndithu, ndiko kutha kofulumira kwambiri komwe sikunachitikepo padziko lapansi." (Carter)
Awa ndi mawu omenyera Pansi pomwe adakhalapo kale, kapena kuwoneratu, ndi kutentha kwapadziko lonse, cha m'ma 2019, pomwe mileme idagwa kuchokera kumwamba, misewu yomangidwa, ndi zipatso pamitengo yophikidwa kuchokera mkati, nawonso. kutentha kwambiri kwa nthawi yayitali.
"Ngati tipitiliza kutulutsa, palibe funso pazomwe ziti zichitike. Dziko lapansi lidzakhala malo osapiririka okhala ndi mafunde a kutentha kosasunthika, koma mafunde amenewo sadzakhala osapiririka, adzaphwanya mbewu zathu chifukwa pali malire otsimikizirika a kutentha omwe mbewu zimatha kupirira, ngakhale ndi ulimi wothirira. ” (Carter)
Kusanthula kodziwika bwino kwa Hot House Earth (Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, Will Steffen, Johan Rockström, et al) zaka zingapo zapitazo kudachititsa mantha anthu, kukambirana za kuopsa kwa kusintha kwanyengo komwe kumakhudza magawo anyengo. Masiku ano, pali kusunthika, kusunthika kwakukulu: "Izi zikuchitika palimodzi nthawi imodzi." (Carter)
Roger Hallam: “Takhazikitsa zinthu ziŵiri kufikira pano m’kufunsana kumeneku: (1) Ngati zimenezi (kupondereza, kugwiritsira ntchito mopambanitsa nyengo) zipitirira, iwo sadzakhala anthu; anthu adzafa ndipo kudzakhala kutha kwa mtundu wa anthu. (2) Njira yomwe izi zimachitikira ndi kuwonjezereka kwa mayankho omwe amayambitsa, ndipo pambuyo pake kumayambitsa maulendo ochulukirapo komanso zoyambitsa zambiri. "
Chifukwa chake, zomwe zikuchitika ndi "kufa kwapang'onopang'ono" komwe anthu mamiliyoni mazana ambiri akuvutika ndi njala, yomwe ili mapeto a kutentha kwa dziko. Mikhalidwe yofanana ndi imeneyi yakhala ikuchitika m’mbuyomu, koma osati mofulumira kwambiri, ngakhale pafupi. Chilengedwe ndi chochepa kwambiri kuposa njira yofulumira ya munthu chifukwa zinthu ziwirizi zimasakanikirana ngati mafuta ndi madzi.
Chakudya chokwanira ndi madzi ndizomwe zimawopsa kwambiri pakupulumuka kwa anthu m'dziko lazachilengedwe lomwe likugwa. Ndizodziwika bwino kuti kutentha kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi kumayambitsa kuwonongeka kwa mbewu zambiri. Zachisoni, ndi dziko lomwe lili kale pa 1.3 ° C pamwamba pa mafakitale asanayambe, 0.2 ° C ina imakankhira madera omwe amalima mbewu kumadera ofiira owala.
"Titaya chakudya pa 1.5 ° C." (Carter)
Ponseponse pa chilengedwe chonse, ngozi ikuwonekera mogwirizana: “Kuchuluka kwa zinthu zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira pamodzi zikuchititsa kuti zinthu zamoyo ziyambe kutha, kutanthauza kuti mitundu ya anthu idzawonongeka.” (Carter)
Agriculture ndi imodzi mwazinthu zomwe zimasokoneza kwambiri nyengo. M'mbali zonse, ulimi wa organic ndi njira yabwino kwambiri yaulimi. Ulimi wamakono ndiwotulutsa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha ndi mankhwala ena omwe amakayikira. Chodabwitsa n'chakuti, kusintha njira zaulimi ndi "choyenera kuchita" kuti munthu apulumuke.
Carter: “Tiyenera kusintha ulimi wathu kuti tikhalebe ndi moyo… Mapulani athu onse amphamvu ndi nyengo m’maboma ndi mabungwe onse padziko lonse lapansi, sikuti angowonjezera, koma akupitirizabe kutulutsa mpweya woipa… dziko pambuyo paulimi. Tikusintha nyengo yazaka 10,000 zapitazi kukhala nyengo yosiyana kotheratu yomwe si nyengo yaulimi.”
Dziko la pambuyo paulimi limatanthauzidwa ngati lopanda chakudya chokwanira kudyetsa anthu onse. Kupereŵera kukuvuta kwambiri… masitolo ogulitsa zakudya amanyamula mashelufu opanda kanthu ndipo zimapitirira.
Poyang’anizana ndi umboni wa sayansi wa mavuto amene akubwera m’tsogolo, zolinga zokha zimene anthu onse ali nazo zolimbana nazo zimabweretsa “kudzipha kwapadziko lonse.” Dongosolo lodziwika bwino lazachuma masiku ano linayambira kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 19th zaka zana, circa: The Gilded Age, pamene palibe amene adamva mawu chilengedwe.
Hallam: “Ngati mulibe chakudya chokwanira komanso ngati muli ndi matenda opatsirana, ndiye kuti mudzakhala osokonezeka; kusokonekera kwa chikhalidwe cha anthu kumakufikitsani ku nkhani ya chitetezo chonyamula chakudya… mwa kuyankhula kwina, monga zinthu zonsezi, zimagwirizana, ndipo zimapita mochulukira, zimachitika mwachangu, sizimangobwera pang'onopang'ono m'magulu; anthu akangodutsa pamalo enaake, amatsikira pansi ndi kupha ndi kufa. Ndi zomwe tikuyang'ana."
Carter: “Tsopano tikuyang’anizana ndi zimene anthu amazitcha ‘zosayerekezeka.’ Koma chodabwitsa n’chakuti sitingakwanitse kusaganizira zimenezi. Ichi ndi chimodzi mwazinthu zazikulu za XR; zimachititsa anthu kukhala tsonga n’kuganiza, kutchera khutu.”
Mpaka pano, n’zoonekeratu kuti machenjezo sanagwire ntchito: “Mwachitsanzo, mu 2007 IPCC Assessment inatsindika mobwerezabwereza kuti pofika chaka cha 2015 mpweya uyenera kutsika ndi 2°C. Tachedwa kale ndi zaka.” (Carter) Zimenezi zinachitika zaka 13 zapitazo.
Malinga ndi Carter: Anthu padziko lonse lapansi akuyenera kumizidwa mano mu sayansi ndikudzuka. Dziko liyenera kuyang'ana mozama chifukwa zomwe zikuchitikazi zikufanana ndi "upandu wanthawi zonse, wowononga anthu onse… Njira yathu yolakwika yazachuma ikuwononga dziko lapansi ndikusokoneza nyanja zonse, kuwononga nyanja, nyanja zonse ndi acidity, ndi kutentha. , zimene zimasokoneza ndi kuwononga mafunde onse a m’nyanja athanzi ndipo . . . ndi tanthauzo la zoipa.” (Carter)
Pali mayankho: "Zochita zogwira mtima kwambiri, zotsimikizika, zogwira mtima nthawi yomweyo, zosavuta kuchita zomwe aliyense padziko lapansi angachite ndi Go Vegan. Mwachidziwitso, tonse tingathe kuchita zimenezo. Tikachita izi, mpweya umachepa nthawi yomweyo. ” (Carter)
Hallam: “Kusintha kwakukulu m’moyo wathu tsopano n’kofunika. Tisamenyane pathengo, ndizofunika. Ndikofunikira kuti anthu achepetse kwambiri maulendo awo; ndikofunikira kuti anthu aziwunikanso moyo wawo, ntchito zawo, ndi ntchito zawo. Chifukwa tikukumana ndi kuzunzika kwakukulu kosaneneka kwa mabiliyoni a anthu ngati sititero… zikuwoneka ngati zosatheka. Sindingapewe zimenezi.”
Hallam: Kupanduka kwa Extinction Rebellion kuli patsogolo pa uthenga watsopano wofunikira, womwe ndi wakuti: “Ngati boma silisintha, tidza… zovuta, sichoncho?”
Kumapeto kwa tsikulo, Dr. Carter akupereka lingaliro lachiyembekezo, kuthekera kwa “Golden Age”. Kuvomereza kuti umunthu wachita zabwino zambiri, zomwe sitiyenera kuziiwala, akuwonetsa kuti tifunika kumangapo ndikusiya zomwe zili zowononga.
Koma, nthawi ndi yochepa.
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
Ndalama