Gwero: Yale Climate Connections
Munthawi imeneyi, kukankhira padziko lonse lapansi zolinga za "net zero 2050" zawoneka ngati njira yofunika kwambiri. Ngati mukuwerenga izi, mukudziwa zomwe ndikunena. Koma ndiloleni ndiwonjezere, ndipo sindikuganiza kuti ndikupita patsogolo ndikanena izi: Net zero 2050 imamveka bwino ngati gambit, kusuntha koopsa kopangidwa ndi chiyembekezo chopambana phindu lalikulu.
Ndi chiyani chomwe chili pachiwopsezo? Equity, zomwe ndikutanthauza chilungamo - chenicheni ndi chodziwikiratu - chakulimbikitsana kwanyengo padziko lonse lapansi. Kodi ngoziyo ikulangizidwa bwino? Zitha kukhala, ngati zingathandize kuyambitsa kulimbikitsa anthu padziko lonse lapansi - nyengo ndi vuto lenileni - ndi ngati tili ndi mwayi wochita bwino pazachuma, mwayi wochita bwino kwambiri.
Palibe nthawi yachisangalalo kwakanthawi kochepa
Kodi chilungamo chili pachiwopsezo chotani? Funso lofunika ili laphimbidwa ndi ena, omwe amalamulira "kubwerera" tsopano kukwera motsutsana ndi ziro zolinga. Chinthu choyamba kudziwa apa ndi chakuti, pamene lipoti lapadera la IPCC la 2018 Kutentha kwapadziko lonse ndi 1.5ยฐC adatchula tsiku lenileni, ndikuyika ziro 2050 pamapu andale ("M'njira zachitsanzo zopanda kapena kuchulukira pang'ono kwa 1.5 ยฐ C, mpweya wapadziko lonse lapansi wa CO2 watsika ndi pafupifupi 45% kuchokera mumiyezo ya 2010 pofika 2030, kufikira ziro pafupifupi 2050.") mapulaneti Kuchuluka kwa CO2, osati kutulutsa kwadziko lililonse, komanso osati kutulutsa kwamakampani aliwonse. Chachiwiri ndi chakuti chochititsa chidwi cha 2050 sichilungamitsa mwanjira ina iliyonse. Izi ndi za 2030, ndipo aliyense akudziwa.
Vuto la "net" vs "real" kuchepetsa ndizovuta kwambiri. Zikupezanso chidwi chochuluka, tsopano mazana amakampani akuluakulu adathamangira kulowa nawo gulu la net zero. Kusamalako kuli koyenera, chifukwa ngati mbiri ingakhale chiwongolero chilichonse kuthamangiraku kumabweretsa chisokonezo cha theka la magawo, zochotsa zinyalala, chiyembekezo chabodza, mayankho abodza komanso maubale olunjika pagulu "bullshit" (kukweza mawu aukadaulo kuchokera kwa Drawdown's Jonathan Foley. ). Ngati simunayambe kuthamanga kutsogoloku, yang'anani zaposachedwa za Foley kuyitanitsa malonjezo abwino anyengo, kapena lipoti latsopano lotchedwa โThe Big Con: Momwe Oipitsa Akuluakulu akupititsira patsogolo nyengo ya 'net zero' kuti achedwe, kunyenga ndi kukana,โ lomwe lidatulutsidwa kumene ndi mgwirizano waukulu wamagulu achilungamo ku US ndi nyengo.
Pali vuto lina, komabe, ndipo limakhudza osati mabungwe koma mayiko omwe, komanso kusiyana kwawo kosiyana. Ena apeza chuma chopitirira malire, pamene ena ali osauka kwambiri; ena atulutsa mpweya wochuluka kwambiri, pamene ena ali pafupifupi osalakwa; ena amadalira kuchotsedwa kwa mafuta, pamene ena amasangalala ndi chuma chochepa cha carbon. Poganizira zenizeni izi, njira iliyonse yabwino yosinthira padziko lonse lapansi iyenera kukhala "yosiyanitsidwa" pakati pa mayiko, kotero kuti aliyense akhoza kulingalira payekhapayekha vuto lochita gawo lake loyenera. Koma kusiyana kofanana, vuto lalikulu la chilungamo chanyengo padziko lonse lapansi, amangonyalanyazidwa mkati mwa net zero 2050 frame, yomwe imagwiranso ntchito zomwezo kumayiko onse, ndipo imasiya aliyense payekha kuti akwaniritse cholinga chodabwitsa ichi.
Zolinga za Net zero sizowongolera kugawo ladziko lonse
Kupitilira apo, chandamalechi chikuphatikizidwa kulikonse ndi chidwi chenicheni, chikhulupiriro chabwino, ngati kuti kukwaniritsa ziro 2050 ndi "chiyerekezo chofunikira chomwe malonjezano anyengo ndi azachuma akuluakulu akuyenera kuweruzidwa." Monga ngati kuti chinali chiyambi cha magawo abwino malonjezo a dziko. Ndikunena apa zaposachedwa mawu Wolemba Navroz Dubash, Harald Winkler ndi Lavanya Rajamani - akatswiri atatu olemekezeka kwambiri pazanyengo padziko lapansi - omwe akuchenjeza kuti zolinga za zero 2050 "sizimaganizira chilungamo m'maiko onse, kusiyana kwakukulu kwa ndale zanyengo, kapena kukhulupirika kwa malonjezo. .โ
Ndipotu, zolinga za dziko lonse zero zero 2050 (ngakhale ndi kusintha pang'ono - China inapita ndi 2060) silondomeko yoyenera ku magawo a dziko, makamaka ngati dziko lililonse lisiyidwa lokha kuti likwaniritse. Lathu ndi dziko akufotokozedwa mwa kusalinganika kwakukulu. Mayiko ena ndi olemera, pamene ena sali olemera, komabe kukakamiza mayiko kuti apeze zolinga zofanana, zodzipezera okha ndalama sizimaganizira mfundo yofunikayi. Zochepa kwambiri kotero kuti ngakhale mayiko olemera kwambiri ngati US atha kutsata malonjezo adziko lonse omwe alibe chithandizo chothandizira kusintha kwanyengo m'maiko osauka.
Lingaliro la "magawo abwino" silikudziwikanso. Tsegulani makutu anu, ndipo mudzamva mawuwo mowonjezereka. Izi ndizodziwikiratu kutengera njira yofulumira ya woyamba Global Stocktake, yomwe idalamulidwa ndi Pangano la Paris kuti lichitike mu 2023 ndikupitilira "molingana ndi chilungamo." Cholinga cha stocktake ndikuwona momwe tonse tikuchitira - pokhudzana ndi kuchepetsa, kusintha, ndi zachuma padziko lonse lapansi - kapena, makamaka, kukakamiza mayiko adziko lapansi kuyang'ana, palimodzi, pakulephera kwawo kwakukulu. zochita wamba. Akamatero, amatengera zonena zamtundu uliwonse, zokayikitsa ndi zina, pomwe amafuna kutsimikizirana kuti iwowo akuchita zomwe akufuna.
Kufunika kochitapo kanthu pazachuma chapadziko lonse lapansi
Kuwunika kwapafupi kwa zonena zotere ndi bizinesi yaukadaulo, koma kuweruza movutikira sikovuta kwenikweni. Chidziwitso chofotokozera ndicho vuto la nyengo ndi la mapulaneti mwa kutanthauzira, ndipo magawo a chilungamo a dziko ayenera mofananamo kukhala magawo mu ntchito ya mapulaneti. Kwa maiko olemera, ichi chili ndi mfundo yofunika, ngati nโnjovuta,: Kuti agawane nawo bwino, sayenera kungochita zinthu zapakhomo, komanso kupereka chithandizo chenicheni mโmaiko osauka. Zingakhale zoyenera kuti US itenge cholinga chochepetsera mpweya wa 2030 ndi 70%, koma chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwake komanso udindo wake wakale, izi sizingakwaniritse. gawo lake labwino, zomwe, ndikusunga, zimaphatikizansopo kuchuluka kwazinthu zomwe zimathandizidwa ndi mayiko ena.
Izi zikutifikitsa ku net zero 2050, zomwe, monga momwe zimakhalira zenizeni, sizimagawana zoyesayesa zapadziko lonse lapansi, koma njira yolimbikitsira nyengo yomwe dziko lililonse latsala kuti lipeze njira yake yofikira ziro. Ndi njira yamisala komanso yosimidwa, koma popeza kuti kusimidwa ndikuyankhidwa koyenera ku zovuta zapadziko lapansi, funso lenileni ndiloti lingagwire ntchito. Ine ndithudi sindikudziwa - palibe aliyense wa ife amene amachita - koma ine ndiri wotsimikiza kuti, monga njuga iliyonse, izo zikhoza kupita njira iliyonse.
Kupambana kudzadalira zinthu zambiri, koma zidzatero makamaka zimadalira pakukula kwachuma kwanyengo. Zikachitika, njira ya net zero 2050 ikhoza kutsegulira njira yabwino komanso yothandiza padziko lonse lapansi. Kupanda kupambanitsa kotereku, kudzetsa kuchulukirachulukira kwa zinthu zopanda pake, popeza maiko amachita chilichonse kuti ayerekeze kuti akusonkhana pamlingo wofunikira.
Anthu osankhika, tsoka, atsimikizira mpaka pano kuti sakufuna kupereka ndalama zenizeni zanyengo. Nkhani yabwino ndiyakuti kulibeko kwazindikirika. International Energy Agency, yomwe posachedwapa idatidabwitsa tonse pofalitsa nkhani yovuta net zero 2050 mapu amsewu, akuumirira kuti kupambana koteroko n'kofunikira kuti pakhale njira yotereyi. Mkulu wa bungweli, a Fatih Birol: "Maboma akuyenera kupatsa mabungwe azachuma padziko lonse lapansi udindo wamphamvu wopezera ndalama zosinthira mphamvu zamagetsi m'maiko omwe akutukuka kumene." Ndipo panalinso zokhumudwitsa za msonkhano waposachedwa wa G7. Nduna ya Zanyengo ku Pakistan, Malik Amin Aslam, pofotokoza za kulengeza kwake pazachuma chanyengo, wotchedwa "Chikondi chamtedza poyang'anizana ndi tsoka lomwe liripo." Jeffrey Sachs waku Columbia University anali kuposa kupusa, ndipo pakuwukira kokulirapo pa G7 adanenanso kuti "ndizovuta kupitilira kusuliza" kwa malonjezo obwerezabwereza a osankhika, ndi kulephera mobwerezabwereza, kukwaniritsa ngakhale amvi awo komanso lonjezo losakwanira lopereka $ 100 biliyoni pachaka - "wamba. 0.2% ya GDP yamayiko olemera.
Zokwanira bwanji? Kuzisunga moyenera
Kodi timafuna ndalama zingati zanyengo? Zothandiza kukambirana ndi Malingaliro a kampani US Fair Shares NDC, yomwe gulu lathu ladzidzidzi posachedwapa lidalemba "ngati" tikulankhula ku US M'menemo, tinkatsutsa kuti gawo lachilungamo la US mu ntchito yowona mtima ya 1.5 ยฐ C ikhoza kuwoneka ngati kuchepetsa 70% ya mpweya wapakhomo ndi 2030, yowonjezeredwa ndi pafupifupi $ 533 biliyoni pothandizira kuchepetsa mayiko: Theka la izo, titero $267 biliyoni, apanga "malipiro abwino" m'njira yomwe pamapeto pake idzaphatikizapo zopereka zofanana zofanana kuchokera ku mayiko olemera ndi anthu kulikonse. Ndalamayi ndi ya zaka khumi za 2021 - 2030, kotero tikukamba za chinachake pa dongosolo la $ 27 biliyoni pachaka, kuti mpira ugubudulidwe.
Chiwerengerochi sichimaphatikizapo kusintha kapena kutayika ndi kuwononga ndalama, zonse zomwe ziri zovuta kwambiri, ndipo zonse zomwe sizingatheke kuzilipira molimbika. Kusanthula koyenera kungathandize, koma chowonadi ndi chakuti sitingathe kumasulira, kunena kuti, kusakhazikika kwa lamba wapadziko lapansi wa equatorial kukhala dollar. Pali zambiri zokha zomwe quantification ingachite. Komabe, awa ndi manambala enieni, otengedwa mosamalitsa komanso mowonekera, ndipo okhazikika mosamala pakati pa zomwe zingatheke ndi zofunika.
Zikumveka ngati ndalama zambiri? Zili choncho. Koma tiyeni tizisunga mu nkhani. Mwachitsanzo, ndalama zankhondo zapadziko lonse zafika $2 thililiyoni pachaka.
Tom Athanasiou ndi mlembi komanso katswiri wazandale komanso wotsutsa zaukadaulo wanthawi yayitali EcoEquity, ntchito ya Earth Island Institute.
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
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