Pamene New Delhi ndi Islamabad akukonzekera kuyambiranso zokambirana zawo ziwirizi, mfundo zaku India zakudera lakumadzulo zikukumana ndi zovuta zomwe sizinachitikepo. Momwe dziko la India limapangira kuyankha kwake pazovuta komanso zomwe zikusintha mwachangu ku Pakistan ndi Afghanistan zidzakhudza kwambiri tsogolo la dera lomwe lili pachiwopsezo kwambiri padziko lapansi, lomwe ndi gawo limodzi mwazovuta zomwe mbiri yapadziko lonse lapansi ikuchitika. Kulimbana ndi vutoli kumafuna kukonzanso kokhazikika kwa zina mwazofunikira komanso zofunika kwambiri pazandale zaku India. Ganizirani za Afghanistan poyamba.
Kusintha kwakukulu kukuchitika pakuchepetsa mphamvu zankhondo ku Afghanistan. Asitikali a North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) motsogozedwa ndi United States ndi asitikali ankhondo a Afghanistani ayambitsa Operation Mushtarak ("pamodzi" ku Dari), imodzi mwa ziwopsezo zazikulu za asitikali aku Western kuyambira kuukira kwa Afghanistan mu Okutobala 2001. ntchito, ndi 15,000 asilikali, anayamba ndi storming wa Marjah (anthu: 80,000) m'chigawo Southern Helmand, linga la Taliban kwa zaka zambiri. Mosiyana ndi mishoni zina zankhondo zotsogozedwa ndi US-International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), Operation Mushtarak ikuyenera kupanga mtundu watsopano womwe umapitilira kuchotsedwa kwa a Taliban. Cholinga chake ndi kukhazikitsanso ulamuliro wa Afghan pokhazikitsa boma la anthu wamba, lomwe limapereka ntchito zapagulu ndipo lingathe kupeza chithandizo chodziwika bwino komanso kuvomerezeka. Pazaka zisanu ndi zitatu zapitazi, mizinda ndi matauni ambiri omwe achotsedwa ku Taliban-Al Qaeda ndi asitikali a ISAF awona zigawenga zikubweranso ndikudzikhazikitsanso. Nthawi ino, asitikali abweretsa boma la Afghanistan kuphatikiza apolisi ndikukhalabe kuti awathandize. Monga momwe General Stanley McChrystal, mkulu wa asilikali a ku America, ananenera kuti: โTili ndi boma mโbokosi, lokonzekera kuloลตamo.โ
Nyuzipepala ya The New York Times inati: โKuposa nthaลตi ina iliyonse kuyambira 2001, asilikali a ku America ndi a NATO saika maganizo ake pa kupha zigawenga za Taliban kusiyana ndi kumanga nzika za Afghanistan ndi kumanga dziko la Afghanistan. "Anthu si adani," Brigadier General Larry Nicholson, wamkulu wa Marines kum'mwera kwa Afghanistan, adauza gulu la asitikali sabata ino. 'Chiwerengero cha anthu ndicho mphoto - ndichifukwa chake tikulowera.' โ
Iyi ndi nthawi yoyamba yomwe US โโikuyang'ana pa chitukuko ndi mabungwe olamulira ku Afghanistan - chinachake chomwe chiyenera kuchita mwamsanga atangochotsedwa ku Taliban ku 2002. Ngati chitsanzo chomanga dzikoli chidzapambana kapena ayi sichidziwika bwino. Pakuyesedwa ndi njira yatsopano yolimbana ndi zigawenga yomwe Gen. McChrystal, yomwe ndi maziko omwe Purezidenti wa US Barack Obama posachedwapa adaganiza zotumiza asilikali a US 30,000 ku Afghanistan ndikulemba ena 10,000 ochokera ku mayiko ena a NATO, kukweza mphamvu za ISAF kuchokera ku 113,000 mpaka. opitilira 150,000 pofika Ogasiti. Kuwonjezekaku, kuwerengedwa, kungafooketse a Taliban mokwanira kuti ambiri a iwo afune kuchoka ku Afghan National Army (ANA) ndikulowa munjira yophatikizana ndi kuyanjanitsa. US iyamba kuchotsa asitikali mu Julayi chaka chamawa.
Ngakhale njirayo itapambana m'chigawo cha Helmand, n'zovuta kuona momwe ingapitirizire ku Afghanistan yonse popanda kupanga asilikali ochulukirapo kuposa 150,000. Ndipo malingaliro a anthu m'mayiko 40 osamvetseka omwe apereka asilikali ku ISAF - makamaka ochepa; mwachitsanzo, mmodzi wochokera ku Georgia, anayi ochokera ku Austria, ndi asanu ndi awiri kuchokera ku Ireland ndi Jordan - amakonda kutumiza magulu ankhondo ambiri kunkhondo yomwe anthu ambiri amawona ngati zosatheka. Izi ndi zoona ku US, kumene 59 peresenti ya anthu amatsutsa kutumiza asilikali ambiri.
Nkhani yovuta ndiyakuti ngati asitikali otsogozedwa ndi US atha kuwononga mokwanira gulu la Taliban ndikukhazikitsa mawonekedwe a anthu wamba kuti njira yophatikizana yomwe idakambidwa pamsonkhano waposachedwa waku London wokhudza Afghanistan ikhale yotheka. Yankho lalifupi ndiloti, izi sizokayikitsa kupatsidwa mbiri ya ISAF komanso mtundu wa mikangano ya Afghanistan. Pakadali pano, asitikali a ISAF 113,000, mothandizidwa ndi asitikali 104,000, sanathe kugwira, kuletsa kapena kupha amuna ochepa a Al Qaeda omwe amakhala mderali - pafupifupi 100 ku Afghanistan ndi 300 ku Pakistan.
Kupambana kwachiwerengero, komanso ukulu paziwopsezo zozimitsa moto - zoperekedwa ndi ma drones, mabomba otsogozedwa ndi laser, ndege zomenyera nkhondo ndi zida zina zonse zapamwamba - sizinathandize ISAF kuti igonjetse Taliban-Al Qaeda. Zowonadi, m'malo ena a Afghanistan, a Taliban akupita patsogolo molimba mtima. Ambiri mwa omenyana nawo sangathe kulowa nawo ANA, ndi malipiro ake ochepa komanso makhalidwe abwino, ngakhale atapatsidwa ziphuphu, monga momwe US โโikufuna kuchita. Kutsatira machitidwe omwe adakhazikitsidwa kwanthawi yayitali, omenyera nkhondo aku Afghanistan amatha kusunga chiphuphu pomwe akuwononga ANA.
Chowonadi ndi chakuti US ilibe njira yomveka yothetsera nkhondo ya Afghanistan - monga momwe zinalili pamene idayambitsa. Nkhondo Yapadziko Lonse ya George W. Bush pa Nkhondo Yachigawenga inali kuyankha kwa mawondo ku zigawenga za Seputembara 2001 kuchokera ku bungwe lomwe linali ndi malingaliro ankhondo amphamvu, omwe mwachibadwa adatsutsa zosankha monga kutsutsa atsogoleri a Al Qaeda pabwalo lazamalamulo monga International Criminal Court kapena khoti lapadera lomwe linapangidwa pansi pa bungwe la United Nations ndikumanga dziko la Afghanistan latsopano kudzera m'mabungwe a demokalase komanso kutenga nawo mbali pagulu lachitukuko chothandizidwa ndi ndalama zambiri - mofanana ndi Marshall Plan.
US kwenikweni imafuna kulanga Al Qaeda-Taliban chifukwa cha 9/11 ndikuwaletsa. Washington ndi oikira kumbuyo ake adapanga zifukwa zingapo zoti alowererepo ku Afghanistan, monga adachitira Iraq ndi Yugoslavia wakale - kuphatikiza kulimbana ndi ziwopsezo zapadziko lonse lapansi zauchigawenga, kumanga demokalase, kukonzanso anthu omwe adakalipobe m'nthawi yakale komanso kulimbikitsa anthu. cholinga chomasula akazi aku Afghan. Koma monga Obama adanenera m'mawu ake a Disembala 1 olengeza za kukwera kwa nkhondo, cholinga chenicheni chinali "kusokoneza, kusokoneza, ndikugonjetsa Al Qaeda ku Afghanistan ndi Pakistan, ndikuletsa kuthekera kwake kuwopseza America ndi ogwirizana nawo m'tsogolomu". Izi sizikukhudzana kwambiri ndi anthu aku Afghanistan kuposa aku America.
Mapeto ake ndi osapeลตeka kuti US idzachoka ku Afghanistan muvuto lalikulu, popanda chitsimikizo chochepa kuti "kuthamanga kwa Taliban" kungasinthidwe ndipo "kutha kugwetsa boma" kuluma - zolinga za US. Momwe zinthu zaku Afghanistan zikusintha mwanjira zake zosakhazikika komanso zosakhazikika, US idalira kwambiri Pakistan, osati kungothandizira pazachuma komanso kuthandizira ndale. M'malo mwake, Gen. Pervez Ashafaq Kayani wadzipereka kuti akhale mkhalapakati potenga gulu lankhondo lalikulu la Taliban, lolamulidwa ndi abale a Haqqani, pagulu lachiyanjano cha US.
Pakistan ifuna kukulitsa ndikukulitsa mphamvu zake ku Afghanistan, kuphatikiza mphamvu zake zankhondo, makamaka chifukwa ikuopa zomwe India akuchita kumeneko. Idzayendetsanso mgwirizano wolimba ndi US pa thandizo lililonse lomwe lingapereke kwa asitikali a NATO, kuphatikiza thandizo lankhondo komanso zachuma. Kupitilira apo, ikhoza kufunsa china chofanana ndi mgwirizano wanyukiliya pakati pa India ndi US
Kuwopseza chitetezo chachigawo
Palibe mwa izi, kuphatikiza chipwirikiti cha Afghanistan chomwe chili pansi paulamuliro wa Taliban, zikuwonetsa chitetezo chachigawo. Zinali zoipa mokwanira kuti US idasaina pangano la nyukiliya ndi India, zomwe sizimangovomereza zida za nyukiliya za India koma zimalola India kukulitsa zida zake zanyukiliya. Poletsa ma rectors ake okwana asanu ndi atatu muulamuliro wa kuyendera mayiko, India ikhoza kupanga chaka chilichonse pafupifupi 200 kg ya zida za plutonium kuchokera kumafuta omwe agwiritsidwa ntchito ndi uranium yokha - yokwanira 40 mpaka 80 mabomba a Nagasaki pachaka - kuwonjezera pa kukulitsa kwambiri zida zake zankhondo za nyukiliya. Zingakhale zoyipitsitsa kwambiri ngati Pakistan ikadakhala ndi chilolezo chofanana ndi theka. Izi zitha kutanthauza mpikisano wothamanga wa zida zanyukiliya ku South Asia.
Choyipa kwambiri chidzakhala zotsatira za mpikisano wokulirapo wa India-Pakistani ku Afghanistan, zomwe zikutsimikizira kuti dziko losauka, logawika komanso losakanizidwa ndi nkhondo limakhala pachithupsa kwa nthawi yayitali. Izi zitha kupereka mwayi kwa a Taliban ndi magulu ena oopsa kuti achuluke, motero kusokoneza Pakistan ndikuwonjezera zigawenga ku India kuchokera kumagulu a jehadi.
Pakistan ikuchita mantha ndi zomwe India akuchita ku Afghanistan pazifukwa zoyipa komanso zabwino. Zakale zikugwirizana ndi mfundo yakuti India amasangalala kwambiri ku Afghanistan chifukwa cha pulogalamu yake yothandizira anthu wamba yokwana $ 1.7 biliyoni, yomwe ili padziko lonse lapansi ngati yabwino kwambiri pakati pa mayiko onse. Mosiyana ndi thandizo la azungu, lodutsa m'magulu apakati, thandizo la India limaperekedwa mopanda apakati ndi ma subcontractors. Ndizoyeneranso kwambiri ku zosowa za Afghanistan ndi zida zake zakale, kuphatikiza misewu yoyipa, kusowa kwa zipatala, masukulu ndi akatswiri ophunzitsidwa bwino. Mwanjira zonse, pulogalamu yaku India yophunzitsa ogwira ntchito m'boma, akazembe, oyimira malamulo, oweruza ndi apolisi aku Afghanistan ndiyotchuka kwambiri.
Zifukwa zabwino za Pakistan zowopa India zikugwirizana ndi kutsegulidwa kwa ma consulates ambiri ndi India m'mizinda momwe alibe bizinesi yovomerezeka komanso nkhawa kuti izi zitha kugwiritsidwa ntchito kuthandizira zinthu zobisika ndikuyambitsa mavuto ku Balochistan, komwe kumawoneka kukhala umboni wina. Ndikofunikira kuti India athetse mantha aku Pakistani ndikupangitsa Islamabad mu ubale wogwirizana ku Afghanistan. Njira yabwino yochitira izi ndikuzindikira kuti India ndi Pakistan ali ndi zokonda zovomerezeka ku Afghanistan. India ili ndi ubale wazaka mazana ambiri ndi Afghanistan potengera chikhalidwe, malonda, nyimbo, chilankhulo ndi chakudya - Afghanistan ndiye gwero lalikulu la zipatso zowuma ndi heeng (asafoetida) zomwe zimatumizidwa ku India. India ilinso ndi gawo lachitetezo chokhala ndi zigawenga zamtundu wa Taliban ndi zotsatira zake zapakhomo.
Pakistan sikuti ndi woyandikana nawo wapafupi wa Afghanistan, wokhala ndi zigawo ziwiri zosakhazikika pamalire omwe kukhazikika kwawo ndikofunikira kuti Pakistan ipulumuke. Pakistan ili ndi ma Pashtuns ambiri m'malire ake kuposa omwe amakhala ku Afghanistan ndipo ali ndi chidwi chovomerezeka pazaumoyo wawo komanso kuyimira ndale.
Kuzindikirika kwa zomwe amakondana kuyenera kupangitsa kuti pakhale kutenga nawo gawo limodzi pamapulogalamu achitukuko komanso kukhala ndi zinthu zosokoneza. Izi sizikhala zosavuta kukwaniritsa bola ngati asitikali akadali amphamvu ku Afghanistan ndipo amawona Afghanistan ngati yofunika kwambiri kuti apeze "kuzama kwaukadaulo". Koma India iyenera kuyesetsa kuyika mgwirizano pazokambirana - ngati kuli kofunikira, pakukulitsa kuchuluka kwa "makambirano ophatikizika" ndikufunsira msonkhano wachigawo wokhudza osewera onse ofunikira, kuphatikiza Iran ndi China.
Izi zikutanthauza kukonzanso ndondomeko ya India ku Pakistan. India ikufunika mtendere ndi chiyanjanitso ndi Pakistan osati pazifukwa zina monga kudzimasula ku zovuta za mkangano wachigawo, zomwe zimagwirizanitsa dziko la India ndikuletsa kupita ku Big League of Nations. Kuyanjanitsa nโkofunika kwambiri kuti pakhale mtendere, chitetezo ndi chitukuko mโderali. India sangakhale otetezeka pokhapokha ngati ili pamtendere, koposa zonse, ndi oyandikana nawo, omwe ayenera kukhala panjira yolimbikitsa demokalase ya anthu wamba komanso kukula kophatikizana.
India ikuyenera kupanga njira yokokera Pakistan muubwenzi womwe chiphunzitso cha ubale wapadziko lonse lapansi umachitcha "co-bonding" - mkhalidwe wolumikizana pakati pa omwe adapikisana nawo pomwe amalumikizana kuti apewe kusamvana ndi mgwirizano kudzera m'makonzedwe angapo, ofanana ndi Mgwirizano wa Franco-German mu 1950s ndi 1960s, womwe unakhazikitsa maziko a European Economic Community ndipo pamapeto pake European Union.
Izi zikukhazikitsa nkhani yayikulu pakuyambiranso kukambirana kwa India ndi Pakistan. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh adachitapo kanthu kuti ayambitsenso zokambirana ku Sharm El Sheik Julayi watha. Posakhalitsa ntchitoyo inalephereka. Sipayenera kukhala pobwerera tsopano. Izi zitha kuchitika kokha ngati dziko la India litengera njira yokulirakulira ndipo silikugogomezera kusinthanitsa kwa mayiko awiriwa kokha ku uchigawenga ndi zina zingapo monga kugawana madzi a mitsinje. "Zokambirana zophatikizika", zokhazikitsidwa ndi ziwiri kuphatikiza zisanu ndi chimodzi zomwe zatsatiridwa kuyambira 1997, zathandiza, ngakhale kusokonezedwa, kukhazikitsidwa kwamitundu ingapo yolumikizirana, kuphatikiza kusinthana kwamphamvu pakati pa anthu awiriwa komanso kumvetsetsa bwino komwe kungapezeke kulumikizana. .
Uku ndi kuyesa kwa litmus kwa mfundo zakunja zaku India. Ngati India ayandikira zokambiranazo monyinyirika, monyinyirika, komanso kuti apindule pang'ono, zitha kukhala pachiwopsezo chokhala ndi chidaliro chochepa kwambiri ku Islamabad kuti kusinthanitsa kopindulitsa kutheke. Ngati ikuzindikira kuti Pakistan yakhala ikumenyana nayo yokha, magulu a jehadi ali ndi mphamvu zambiri pa gulu la Pakistani monga asilikali, kuti utsogoleri wawo wamba ndi wofooka komanso wokakamizidwa ndi ma jehadi ndi asilikali, komanso kuti kulimbikitsa utsogoleri kumafuna njira. mgwirizano ndi mphamvu zochepetsera komanso demokalase ku Pakistan, ndiye kuti India ikhoza kukwaniritsa zambiri.
Ndizosamveka kuyembekezera kupambana mwachangu mu ubale wa India ndi Pakistan. Koma kupita patsogolo kwapang'onopang'ono, kumvetsetsana bwino komanso mgwirizano - kuphatikiza kudzipereka kosagwirizana kuti atsegule msika waku India kuzinthu zosiyanasiyana zochokera ku Pakistan - zitha kupezedwa. Mofananamo, kuthetsa mpikisano wankhondo ndi mpikisano wa zida za nyukiliya ndizofunika kwambiri.
Zonsezi zikutanthawuza kuchitapo kanthu kwakukulu, kwapafupi komanso kosasokonezeka ngakhale podziwa kuti zigawenga zina zazikulu, kuphatikizapo ntchito ya ku Mumbai, sizingathetsedwe. Iyi ndi njira yovuta, yofanana ndi mankhwala owawa. Koma palibe mankhwala ena a matendawa.
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