Pamene gawo lalikulu la Middle East likumira m'magawano pakati pa misasa ya ndale yomwe ikupikisana, dziko lotchedwa 'Islamic State' ('IS') likupitiriza ulendo wake wopita ku mtundu wopotoka wa caliphate ya Muslim. Anthu masauzande ambiri ataya miyoyo yawo, ena mwa njira zozunzika kwambiri, kuti 'IS' ikwaniritse maloto ake owopsa.
Zowona, chiwawa chochitidwa ndi 'IS' sichingakhale chodabwitsa, poganizira kuti gululi lidabadwira m'malo achiwawa ambiri. Ndizovuta kulingalira, mwachitsanzo, kuti, ngati boma la Syria ndi otsutsa ake adafuna njira yothetsera ndale kuyambira masiku oyambirira a kuwukirako, 'IS' ikanapeza malo okhazikika ku Syria.
Panali panthawi ya chiwawa cha boma la Syria pamene 'IS', mphamvu yakuda yomwe sakhulupirira demokalase, ufulu wa anthu kapena kukhalapo, idawonekera. Zochitika zomwezi zinabwerezedwa ku Iraq ndi mayiko ena ambiri. Mu nkhani mu Independent nyuzipepala, Patrick Cockburn adawonetsa mayiko asanu ndi awiri omwe chikoka cha 'IS' chili chachikulu kapena chikukula: Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Somalia ndi kumpoto chakum'mawa kwa Nigeria.
"Kupambana kwa gululi kwakhala kotheka chifukwa kumatsutsidwa ndi maboma ndi magulu ankhondo ofooka, achinyengo kapena omwe kulibe," adalemba.
Komabe, sikugogomezera kwambiri chomwe chimayambitsa vutoli ndi chiwawa chomwe chimatsatirapo. Maboma a azungu ndi atolankhani si omwe ali ndi mlandu wokambitsirana za nkhanza za 'IS' kunja kwa ndale kapena chikhalidwe cha anthu; Maboma a Arabu ndi atolankhani ali ndi ndalama zambiri pakusokoneza nkhaniyo. Zofalitsa zovomerezeka za mayiko achiarabu nthawi zambiri zimatanthauzira molakwika vuto lililonse m'derali m'njira yabwino kuti adzilungamitsira mfundo zawo zakunja kapena zankhondo.
Yemen, yomwe yakumana ndi zovuta zingapo zandale - ziphuphu za boma ndi ziwawa, kuwukira kodziwika komwe kumatsatiridwa ndi kusakhazikika kwa ndale, nkhondo yapachiweniweni komanso nkhondo yachigawo - ndizochitika. Mabomba a 'IS' omwe amayang'ana kwambiri nyumba zopemphereramo, tsopano ndi gawo lina lankhondo lakupha ku Yemen.
'IS' imakula bwino pa mikangano ndi masoka omwe amachokera ku mayiko osauka, achiarabu omwe ali ogawanika, kumene achinyamata sakhudzidwa ndi maboma awo komanso kumene alibe chiyembekezo cham'tsogolo chifukwa cha ziphuphu ndi ziwawa zomwe zatenga nthawi yaitali. Kukwiyitsidwa koteroko ndi malo abwino olembera anthu a 'IS', omwe amasangalala ndi angapo mitsinje yamalonda ndi chuma chodzidalira.
Zachidziwikire, chiwawa chochulukirapo sichikhala njira yothetsera vutoli, monga momwe 'Arab Spring' idawonetsera. Kunena zowona, kuopsa ndi nkhanza za mikangano yambiri yomwe ikuchitika m’derali yapindula pang’ono, kusiyapo kukhazikitsa maziko a kugaŵikana kwakukulu pa nkhani za ndale, zachipembedzo ndi zamagulu.
Ngakhale kuti magulu ampatuko m'derali adayambira zaka zambiri, zomwe zikuchitika masiku ano ndi zandale, zokhala ndi zolinga komanso zolinga zosadziwika bwino. Poyamba, mipatuko inasokonekera pakufuna kusintha zinthu ndi kusintha kwatanthauzo pa ndale monga momwe magulu osiyanasiyana achiarabu amafunira. Pambuyo pake, idakhala ngati danga la mikangano yachigawo pakati pa ma Shia-ambiri aku Iran, ndi Saudi Arabia ambiri a Sunni.
Mosasamala kanthu za zonena zake zachipembedzo kapena zachipembedzo, zikuwonekeratu kuti masomphenya achiwawa a 'IS', ngati ataloledwa kupirira, angatanthauzire nthawi zonse ku ziwerengero zazikulu za imfa kuchokera kumbali zonse - Sunni, Shia, Akhristu, ndi magulu ena ochepa.
ndi Turkey ikulowa mu mpikisano tsopano pophulitsa zolinga za 'IS' ku Syria, momwe nkhondo ikukulirakulira kuposa momwe amakhalira komanso njira zake, kulowa m'madera atsopano.
Pambuyo pokana kukakamizidwa kuti alowe nawo mgwirizano wotsogozedwa ndi US motsutsana ndi 'IS', dziko la Turkey tsopano lavomera kuti mgwirizanowu ulowe ku Incirlik Airbase yake. Pakadali pano, Turkey F-16 idapitilirabe kutsata zolinga za 'IS', pomwe chitetezo ku Turkey akuti adasonkhanitsa mazana a zigawenga zomwe akuwakayikira, osati otsatira a 'IS' okha, komanso Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) ndi magulu ena oopsa.
Kukula komweko munkhondo yaku Turkey yomwe idangoyamba kumene pa 'IS' kuyenera kukhala kosangalatsa. Ngakhale kuti 'IS' ndi chikhalidwe chofanana pakati pa mayiko osiyanasiyana a ku Middle East, dziko lililonse likuwoneka kuti lili ndi gawo la m'deralo lomwe limagwira ntchito ngati mbadwa ya 'IS', monga momwe zinalili ku Libya pambuyo pa nkhondo yotsogoleredwa ndi NATO, ndipo ndithudi, Syria, Iraq, Somalia, ndi kwina.
Nkhani ya ku Aigupto ikunenanso. Zisokonezo zomwe zidatsogolera 'IS' kulowa mu Sinai zinali makamaka zokhudzana ndi zochitika zamkati za Aigupto. Peninsula ya Sinai ndi yosauka komanso yonyalanyazidwa ndi Boma la Aigupto. Kwa zaka zambiri, zakhala umboni wa katangale ndi kugawa chuma mopanda chilungamo. Mafuko a Bedouin ku Sinai, omwe kale anali patsogolo pankhondo yomasula Peninsula ku Israeli, adapanduka m'kupita kwa nthawi. Chipululucho chinadzaza ndi mankhwala osokoneza bongo ndi malonda a anthu. Zikondwerero za ku Sinai, pambuyo pa kupanduka kwa Aigupto mu Jan 2011, zinali zosakhalitsa ndipo mwamsanga zinasinthidwa ndi kupanduka kwa zida, pamene chiyembekezo chinasanduka mkwiyo.
Mpaka posachedwa, chiwawa cha Sinai chinali makamaka nkhani ya m'deralo. Mtolankhani waku Mauritania, Sidiahmed Tfeil, akutsutsa kuti magulu ankhondo aku Egypt, monga 'Ansar Beit al-Maqdis', adakana kuyimbira kuti alowe nawo gulu la al-Qaeda. Koma kusowa kwawo kwa mgwirizano ndi chithandizo chinawakankhira m'manja mwa 'IS', yomwe tsopano ikuwona nkhondo ya Sinai - motsogoleredwa ndi 'Chigawo cha Sinai' - kuwonjezereka kwina kwa nkhondo yake yachigawo.
Tfeil adalemba maiko omwe 'IS' ikuyenda mwamphamvu, kutulutsa chikoka cha al-Qaeda ndikupikisana ndi zisudzo zakomweko. Amaphatikizapo Yemen ndi Libya, komanso Algeria, Mali, Somalia ndi ena.
Kupatula ku Algeria, kusamvana komweko kwa mikangano yamkati, kulowererapo kwakunja ndi kulowererapo zikuwoneka kuti zikugwirizanitsa ena onse, omwe asanduka - kapena atsikira m'mphepete mwa kukhala - mayiko olephera.
M'mawu ena, kupambana kwa 'IS' kwagwira ntchito limodzi ndi kulephera kwa maboma am'madera kupereka mapu amisewu kuchokera ku chipwirikiti chachitetezo, mavuto azachuma ndi ziphuphu zosatha. Pokhala ndi mwayi wopeza ndalama zambiri, 'IS' imatha kulumikizana ndi magulu ankhondo am'deralo omwe adapangidwa chifukwa cha madandaulo enieni, kugula mphamvu ndi kukhulupirika, monga achitira ku Libya, Syria ndi Sinai.
Chida china mu zida zankhondo za 'IS' zomwe zidawoneka bwino ndikuti Middle East idagawanika pakati pa misasa ya Saudi ndi Iran, komanso kuti palibe ndewu imodzi yogwirizana yomwe ikufuna kuthetsa kapena, kuchedwetsa kupita patsogolo. 'NDI' asilikali. Pomwe misasa yankhondo ya 'IS' akuti ikuyang'ana ku Syria, mikangano ina yachigawo, makamaka ku Yemen, ikuthandizira kukula kwa 'IS'.
Nkhondo yolimbana ndi 'IS' ndi magulu ena ochita zinthu monyanyira sangathe kupambana ngati chigawocho chikhalabe chogawikana, pomwe maboma achinyengo, achiwawa amakhalabe njira yokhayo yothanirana ndi nkhanza komanso monyanyira.
Ndi kusowa kwa ziyembekezo za ndale, ndi kuthetsedwa kwa kuyesa kulikonse kwaufulu ndi mwayi wachuma wachilungamo, zomwe zimadzetsa ziwawa monyanyira poyamba. Malingana ngati izi zidakalipobe, 'IS' idzapeza olembedwa atsopano, kugwirizana ndi magulu a zigawenga zakomweko, ndikupitiriza kukula m'malire atsopano - ngakhalenso mdima wandiweyani.
Dr. Ramzy Baroud wakhala akulemba za Middle East kwa zaka zoposa 20. Iye ndi mlembi wapadziko lonse lapansi, wofalitsa nkhani, wolemba mabuku angapo komanso woyambitsa PalestineChronicle.com. Buku lake laposachedwa ndi My Father was a Freedom Fighter: Gaza's Untold Story (Pluto Press, London). Webusaiti yake ndi: www.ramzybaroud.net.
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