Mwachisangalalo, akuti Napoliyoni ananena kuti: “Mbalame za njuchi n’zodabwitsa kwambiri! Munthu angathe kuchita nawo chilichonse kupatulapo kukhala pamenepo!” Magulu andale ndi asitikali aku Pakistan akuwoneka kuti ali ndi chidwi chofanana ndi zida zake za nyukiliya. Kutsatira mayeso a nyukiliya a 1998, idawona "Bomba" ngati njira yothetsera mavuto angapo aku Pakistan. Zinakhala zodetsa nkhawa kuti, kuwonjezera pakupereka chitetezo chokwanira, "Bomba" lipatsa Pakistan kuwonekera kwapadziko lonse lapansi, kuthandiza kumasula Kashmir, kupanga kunyada kwadziko ndikukweza dziko laukadaulo. Koma ziyembekezo ndi zolinga zinali zosiyana kwambiri ndi za masiku akale.
Kalelo, panali chifukwa chimodzi chokha chofunira "Bomba" - Nukes aku India adayenera kutsutsidwa ndi ma nukes aku Pakistani. Zowonadi, mu 1965, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto adalankhula mawu ake otchuka onena za "Bomba": ngati India analipeza "ndiye kuti tiyenera kudya udzu ndikupeza umodzi, kapena kugula wathu." Pamsonkhano wotchuka wa Multan womwe unatsatira chigonjetso cha India pankhondo ya 1971, Bhutto adapempha asayansi aku Pakistani kuti apange mapu a zida zanyukiliya kuti athane ndi India. Pakistan idakankhidwira m'bwalo la nyukiliya ndi mayeso aku India a Meyi 1974.
Ngakhale kuti anatsutsidwanso kulinganiza mphamvu zankhondo mwa mpambo wa mayeso asanu a zida za nyukiliya a ku India mu May 1998, Pakistan poyambirira inali yozengereza kuyesa zida zakeyake powopa chilango cha mayiko. Kufufuza zamoyo zambiri kunatsatira. Koma kunyoza kopusa ndi kuwopseza kwa atsogoleri aku India monga LK Advani ndi George Fernandes kudakakamiza Pakistan kumapeto kwa mwezi womwewo, mfundo yomwe India akumva chisoni nayo.
Kupambana kwa nyukiliya ku Pakistan kunasintha malingaliro nthawi yomweyo. Msilikali wodzidalira kwambiri mwadzidzidzi adawona zida za nyukiliya ngati chithumwa; kukhala ndi nukes-for-nukes kunakhala chachiwiri. "Bomba" idakhala njira yochepetsera mphamvu zankhondo zaku India, zamlengalenga ndi zam'madzi. Posakhalitsa ganizoli linasanduka zochita. Miyezi ingapo pambuyo pa mayeso a nyukiliya a 1998, asitikali aku Pakistani ndi zigawenga, otetezedwa ndi chishango cha nyukiliya, adawoloka Line of Control (LoC) ku Kashmir kupita ku Kargil. Magulu achisilamu achisilamu adapangidwa momasuka ku Pakistan. Ziwawa za Mumbai zitachitika mu 2008, India idachita zochulukirapo kuposa furo ndi fume.
Cholinga chachitatu, chomwe chikadalipobe, ndi chobisika koma chofunikira kwambiri: ma nukes athu amapanga ndalama. Nthawi zovuta zachuma zafika ku Pakistan: kukhetsa ndi kusowa kwamafuta kumatseketsa mafakitale ndi zoyendera nthawi yayitali, zogulitsa kunja zimaposa zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja, kukwera kwamitengo kuli pawiri, ndalama zakunja zakunja ndizovuta chifukwa chodera nkhawa chitetezo chathupi, kusintha misonkho kwachitika. zinalephereka, ndipo katangale sikadalipobe. Dziko la Africa ngati Somalia kapena Congo likadamira kale pansi pa kulemera kwake. Koma, monga nyukiliya North Korea, Pakistan akumva kutetezedwa. Imadziwa kuti opereka ndalama padziko lonse lapansi amakakamizika kupitiriza kupopa ndalama. Kupanda kutero, Pakistan yomwe ikugwayo ikadalephera kuletsa ma nyukiliya ake a Hiroshima 80+ kuti asasowe mumdima.
M'kupita kwa nthawi, ndiye kuti bayonet ya nyukiliya ya dzikoli yapeza zambiri kuposa kungolepheretsa; ndi chida chamaloto cha oligarchy iliyonse yolamulira. Mosiyana ndi bayonet ya Napoleon - zowawa kukhalapo - nukes sizimapereka vuto lililonse. Mosadabwitsa, General (retd) Pervez Musharraf nthawi zambiri amawatcha kuti "miyala yachifumu" yaku Pakistan. Mmodzi amakumbukira kuti atangotha 9/11 adalengeza kuti "katundu" izi ziyenera kutetezedwa zivute zitani - ngakhale izi zikutanthauza kuvomereza zofuna zaku America zotaya a Taliban.
Koma kodi ma nukes athu angataye matsenga awo? Kubedwa, kukhala wopanda mphamvu kapena kutaya chithumwa chomwe amabweretsamo ndalama zamtengo wapatali? Koposa zonse, kodi angalephere kuwaletsa motani ndipo ndi liti?
Kusintha kumatha kubwera ndi Mumbai-II. Uku si kungongoganizira chabe. Kusafuna kwa gulu lankhondo kuletsa magulu a jihadi otsutsana ndi India, kapena kulanga omwe adachita ku Mumbai-I, kumapangitsa kuwukira kwachiwiri ku Pakistan kukhala nkhani yanthawi. Ngakhale sizinathandizidwe mwalamulo kapena kuvomerezedwa, zitha kuyambitsa mkwiyo ku India. Nanga bwanji? Kodi India akanayankha bwanji?
Sipangakhale, ndithudi, yankho lotsimikizirika. Koma ndizophunzitsa kusanthula Operation Parakram, kuyankha kwa India pakuukira kwa nyumba yamalamulo yaku India pa Disembala 13, 2001. Kusonkhanitsa kwa miyezi 10 kwa asitikali pafupifupi theka la miliyoni ndikutumiza kwa asitikali ku LOC kunayambika kulanga Pakistan chifukwa kusungira a Jaish-e-Mohammad, omwe, poyamba, adadzinenera kuti ndiwo adayambitsa chiwembucho. Parakram itatuluka, Pakistan idapambana ndipo India adatsala akunyambita mabala ake.
Seminala yomwe idachitika mu Ogasiti 2003 ku Delhi idasonkhanitsa atsogoleri akulu ankhondo aku India komanso akatswiri ofufuza kuti aganizire za Parakram. Pogwira mawu wokamba nkhani wamkulu, Major-General Ashok Mehta, maiko awiriwa adangotsala pang'ono kumenya nkhondo ndipo "makambirano okakamiza aku India adalephera chifukwa chakusagwirizana kwa zokambirana za India ndi US komanso kulephera kwa India kuganiza momaliza". Mkulu wa asilikaliyo anapereka zifukwa zingapo zokanira kumenyana ndi Pakistan. Izi zinaphatikizapo kusanthula kolakwika kwa phindu la ndalama, kusowa chidwi mu ndale za ku India, mavuto omwe amabwera chifukwa cha ziwawa za ku Gujarat za 2002 komanso "kusowa kulimba mtima". Kuti Parakram akanakhala ndi thandizo losasunthika la America adakhalanso lingaliro labodza.
Lingaliro lachiwiri lofunikira, lonenedwa ndi mkulu wakale wazamazamalamulo waku India, Lieutenant-General Vikram Sood, anali ankhanza ku India. Ananena chisoni kuti sanachite nkhondo ndi Pakistan ndipo adati India "inalephera kupeza malo abwino komanso kudziyimira pawokha". Anapitiliza kunena kuti Musharraf sanatengere India mozama atataya mwayi wamtengo wapatali uwu kuti aukire Pakistan yomwe idasokonekera yomwe inali kumenya nkhondo ndi a Taliban pa Durand Line. Pogwiritsa ntchito mawu akuti “imbroglio” ponena za chilango cha dziko la India, iye ananena kuti palibe lamulo landale limene linaperekedwa kwa akuluakulu a usilikali kuti aphedwe mpaka mu August 2002. M’malo mwake, mkulu wa asilikali anapemphedwa kuti apereke malangizo. mwezi umenewo kuti atulutse asilikali.
Tsopano kuloza chala, kudzudzula ndi kutenga katundu kwatha, munthu akhoza kukhala wotsimikiza kuti India salola Parakram yachiwiri. Zowonadi, paradigm yatsopano yolimbana ndi Pakistan yatulukira ndipo imayikidwa munjira monga Cold Start. Izi zimayitanitsa kuthamangitsidwa mwachangu, kusalami ku Pakistan pomwe akuphunzira kumenya nkhondo wamba pansi pa "nyukiliya ya nyukiliya" (payokha mawu osangalatsa, ogwiritsidwa ntchito ndi General Deepak Kapoor mu Januwale 2010).
Pa izi, mavumbulutso aposachedwa a WikiLeaks ndi oyenera kuwaganizira. Mu chingwe chodziwika ku Washington mu February 2010, a Tim Roemer, kazembe wa US ku India, adalongosola Cold Start ngati "si dongosolo lakuukira dziko lonse la Pakistan" koma "lolowera mwachangu, nthawi komanso mtunda wopanda malire. Gawo la Pakistani". Adalemba kuti "ndichigamulo chonse cha US Mission kuti India akumana ndi zotsatira zosakanikirana." Pochenjeza India motsutsana ndi Cold Start, adatsimikiza kuti "atsogoleri a ku India mosakayikira amazindikira kuti ngakhale Cold Start idapangidwa kuti iwononge Pakistan mochepa popanda kuyambitsa kuyankha kwa nyukiliya, sangakhale otsimikiza ngati atsogoleri a Pakistani angapewe kuyankha koteroko. ”
Roemer ali pomwepo. Kukhazikitsa Cold Start, komwe kungayambike ndi Mumbai-II, kungayambitse ngozi yanyukiliya. Ndithudi, palibe njira yodziŵira mmene mikangano yoteroyo idzathere zikangoyamba. Chifukwa chake utsogoleri wanzeru waku India - womwe ungangoyembekeza kuti udzakhalapo panthawiyo - sungathe kusankha. Koma ngakhale zili choncho, Mumbai-II ikhoza kukhala tsoka lalikulu ku Pakistan kuposa India. Inde, ma nyukiliya aku Pakistani sangakhale osavulazidwa komanso osagwiritsidwa ntchito, koma matsenga awo akadakhala nthunzi.
Chifukwa chake ndi chodziwikiratu: India wokhumudwa angachite kampeni - ali ndi mwayi wopambana - kuthetsa thandizo lapadziko lonse ku Pakistan, kunyanyala malonda ndi zilango zokhwima. Kuopa kwapadziko lonse lapansi kwa zida za nyukiliya zaku Pakistani zomwe zidabedwa ndi asitikali achisilamu zitha kugonjetsedwa ndi kunyansidwa kwapadziko lonse kwakuphanso koopsa kwa m'mimba. Pokhala ndi mafuta ochepa pazachuma, kugwa kumatha kwa milungu ingapo osati miyezi. Bravado ku Pakistan ikanakhala yamphamvu poyamba koma imasungunuka mofulumira.
Zakudya, magetsi, gasi ndi petulo zikanatha. China ndi Saudi Arabia amatumiza mauthenga achifundo ndi thandizo, koma sizingasinthe. Chifukwa cha kusoŵa kulikonse, magulu achiwawa ankawotcha masiteshoni a gridi ndi mapampu a petulo, kulanda katundu m’masitolo, ndi kufunkha m’nyumba za anthu olemera. Pakistan yamasiku ano yosalamulirika ingakhale yosalamulirika. Boma lomwe linkalamulira panthawiyo, kaya ndi la anthu wamba kapena lankhondo, likanakhalapo m’dzina lokha. Asilikali achipembedzo ndi a m'madera adzatha kulimbana ndi mwayi wawo; Pakistan idzalowa mu chisokonezo cha gehena.
Muzochitika zina, kodi ma nukes aku Pakistan angabedwe ndi achisilamu opitilira muyeso? Zodetsa nkhawa za America pa izi zikuchotsedwa ndi anthu ambiri aku Pakistani omwe amawona kuti manthawa ndi opanda pake ndipo amakayikira kuti zonena za US zimabisa zolinga zoyipa. Iwo akuwonetsa kuti ukatswiri wa Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division (SPD), womwe uli ndi udindo wosunga zida, watamandidwa ndi alendo ambiri. Mawu olimbikitsa abweranso kuchokera kwa andale aku America ochezera monga Senator Joe Lieberman. Ndi maphunziro ndi ndalama zaku US, SPD ikuti yakhazikitsa njira zingapo zodzitetezera monga kuwongolera chitetezo, kukhazikitsa maloko amagetsi ndi zida zachitetezo monga Permissive Action Links, ndi pulogalamu yodalirika kwa ogwira ntchito.
Pazonsezi, njira ndi kukonza kwaukadaulo ndizofanana ndi amuna omwe amawagwiritsa ntchito. Mwachitsanzo, zida zambiri kapena zabwinoko sizikanalepheretsa Bwanamkubwa Salmaan Taseer kuti aphedwe ndi alonda ake omwe. Chochitikachi, komanso kuukira kwapakati pa asitikali ankhondo ndi Inter-Services Intelligence, kumadzetsa chidwi cha chipwirikiti m'malo a nyukiliya. Popeza dziko la Pakistani lachita zinthu monyanyira komanso lodana ndi America, ndizovuta kunena kuti izi sizingatheke panthawi yamavuto.
Popeza ma nukes sangakhale otetezeka ku ma radicals, ndizomveka kuganiza kuti US iyenera kuti idachita nawo nkhondo kwambiri. Zolinga zangozi zitha kuchitika pakangopezeka kuti nzeru za nukes zaku Pakistan zitha kutha, kapena ngati boma lachiwopsezo litenga ulamuliro ndikuwopseza mowonekera. Kodi mapulaniwa angakhale otani, ndipo angagwiredi ntchito?
Nkhani yomwe idasindikizidwa mu The New Yorker mu Novembala 2009 ndi Seymour Hersh idapanga mafunde ku Pakistan. Adalemba kuti mapulani azadzidzidzi aku US alipo kuti achotse mbola ya Pakistan polanda zida zawo zoyambitsa. Ananenanso kuti alamu, yomwe ikuwoneka yokhudzana ndi chigawo cha bomba la nyukiliya chomwe sichinasowe, idapangitsa gulu la US loyankha mwachangu kuwulukira ku Dubai. Alamuyi idakhala yabodza ndipo gululo lidabwezedwa lisanafike ku Pakistan. Unduna wa Zachilendo ku Pakistan, komanso kazembe wa US ku Islamabad, adakana mwamphamvu izi.
Kodi munthu ayenera kuchita chiyani pa zomwe Hersh adanena? Choyamba, sizingatheke kuti US ali ndi chidziwitso cholondola cha malo osungiramo nukes a Pakistani, makamaka popeza iwo (kapena amafanana ndi dummies) ndi mafoni. Akuti pali ngalande zambiri zapansi panthaka zomwe zimatha kusuntha momasuka. Chachiwiri, ngakhale malo atadziwika bwino, amatetezedwa kwambiri. Izi zikutanthawuza kuti anthu ambiri ovulala kumbali zonse ziwiri pamene asilikali akulowa, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti ntchito yachinsinsi ikhale yosatheka. Chachitatu, kuwukira malo a nyukiliya aku Pakistani kungakhale nkhondo yokhala ndi zotsatira zosavomerezeka ku US, makamaka chifukwa cha zovuta zake ku Afghanistan. Zonsezi zikusonyeza kuti gwero la chidziwitso cha Hersh linali lolakwika.
Kodi a US angachite bwanji ataba? Othandizira pawailesi yakanema omwe sakudziwa bwino akukuwa modabwitsa za asitikali aku Blackwater ndi US akutsika kuti agwire zida za nyukiliya mdzikolo. Koma pavuto longopeka pomwe US yaganiza zolanda Pakistan, njira yake yankhondo yomwe ingakonde siyingakhale yankhondo. M'malo mwake ikanasankha mwatsatanetsatane Mabomba a Massive Ordnance Penetrator 30,000-pounds ogwetsedwa ndi mabomba a B-2 kapena kuyatsa matabwa ozungulira zida zankhondo pogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zazifupi, zamphamvu za microwave kuchokera ku ndege zowuluka pang'ono. Koma zida zankhondo zokwiriridwa kwambiri, kapena zomwe zili ndi zishango zachitsulo zokwanira, zikadakhalabe zotetezeka.
Kuwukira kwa US pakupanga zida zanyukiliya ku Pakistan kapena malo osungira, komabe, kungakhale kupusa kwakukulu. Ngakhale nuke imodzi ikapulumuka chiwonongeko, chomaliziracho chikhoza kuwononga kwambiri. Koma vuto ndi losatsimikizika komanso lowopsa kuposa nuke imodzi yomwe yatsala. Ngakhale US ikudziwa ziwerengero zenizeni za zida zomwe zatumizidwa, sizingadziwe zonse zomwe akugwirizanitsa. India, wina akuganiza, angadziwe zochepa.
Chifukwa chake mfundo yofunika: palibe njira yoti mphamvu zakunja, kaya America kapena India, zigwirizane bwino ndi nukes za Pakistan. Kodi iyi ndi nkhani yabwino? Inde ndi ayi. Ngakhale kupulumuka kwa nyukiliya kumawonjezera chidaliro cha Pakistani ndikuletsa kugwedezeka kwa mawondo kowopsa, kwalimbikitsanso adventurism - zotsatira zake zomwe Pakistan idayenera kulipira pambuyo pa Kargil.
Kulanda dziko la Pakistan monyanyira mwina sikudutsa zaka zisanu mpaka 10. Ngakhale lero, Asilamu ena amphamvu akulimbikitsa nkhondo yolimbana ndi America. Koma nkhondo yotereyi itha kuthetsa Pakistan ngati dziko ngakhale palibe ma nukes omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito. Kupulumutsa Pakistan ku zipembedzo zonyanyira kudzafuna kuti gulu lankhondo, lomwe lokha lili ndi mphamvu pazosankha zovuta, kuti asiye kugwiritsa ntchito thumba lake lakale lachinyengo. Iyenera kusiya kunamizira kuti chiwopsezo chagona kudutsa malire athu pomwe chiwopsezo chili mkati. Bayonet ya Napoleon pamapeto pake sinamupulumutse, ndipo bayonet ya nyukiliya ya Pakistan ilinso ndi tsiku lake. Sizingateteze dziko. M'malo mwake, Pakistan ikufunika mtendere, chilungamo pazachuma, malamulo, kusintha misonkho, mgwirizano wamagulu, maphunziro ndi mgwirizano watsopano wachitaganya.
Wolembayo ndi pulofesa wa nyukiliya ndi high-energy physics ku Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad..