Last month, the National Nuclear Security Administration (formerly the Atomic Energy Commission) announced that the first of a new generation of strategic nuclear weapons had gbanyụọ Ahịrị mgbakọ na ụlọ ọrụ ngwa agha nuklia Pantex dị na panhandle nke Texas. Isi agha ahụ, W76-2, ka emebere ka etinyere ya na ngwa agha Trident agbagoro n'okpuru mmiri, ngwa ọgụ nwere oke ihe karịrị 7,500 kilomita. Ka ọ na-erule Septemba, ọnụ ọgụgụ ndị agha na-akọwapụtaghị ga-abụ Nyefere nye ndị agha mmiri maka ibuga.
Ihe na-eme ka nuke a dị ọhụrụ bụ na ọ na-ebu a dị nnọọ nta ugwo na-emebi emebi karịa nnukwu anụ ọkụ ọkụ nke Trident na-anabata ya kemgbe ọtụtụ iri afọ - ọ bụghị ihe dịka 100 kilotons nke TNT dị ka ọ dị na mbụ, mana nke kiloton ise. Dabere na Stephen Young nke Union of the Concerned Scientists, W76-2 ga-ewepụta “naanị” ihe dị ka otu ụzọ n'ụzọ atọ nke ike na-emebi ihe nke ngwa agha ahụ. Enola Gay, an American B-29 bomber, dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. Yet that very shrinkage of the power to devastate is precisely what makes this nuclear weapon potentially the most dangerous ever manufactured. Fulfilling the Trump administration’s quest for nuclear-war-fighting “flexibility,” it isn’t designed as a deterrent against another country launching its nukes; it’s designed to be used. This is the weapon that could make the previously “echeghi" iche echiche.
There have long been “low-yield” nuclear weapons in the arsenals of the nuclear powers, including ones on cruise missiles, “air-drop bombs” (carried by planes), and even nuclear artillery shells — weapons designated as “tactical” and intended to be used in the confines of a specific battlefield or in a regional theater of war. The vast majority of them were, however, eliminated in the nuclear arms reductions that followed the end of the Cold War, a scaling-down by both the United States and Russia that would be quietly greeted with relief by battlefield commanders, those actually responsible for the potential use of such ordnance who understood its self-destructive absurdity.
Ịnye ụfọdụ ngwa agha dị ka "mkpụrụ dị ala" dabere na ike mbibi ha na-adabere mgbe niile na ọdịiche nke eziokwu mere ka ọ bụrụ ihe na-abaghị uru (otu oge, a na-eburu n'uche mmebi site na redioactivity na ikuku ikuku yana n'atụghị egwu na a ga-eji naanị otu ngwa agha). N'ezie, mkpochapụ nke ngwa agha nuklia na-anọchi anya esemokwu siri ike na iwu ígwè nke ịrị elu, nghọta nke ọchịagha ọzọ - na iji ngwa agha dị otú ahụ megide onye iro yiri nke ahụ nwere ike ịkpalite ụdọ a na-apụghị izere ezere nke mbibi nuklia nke njedebe ya bụ. jisiri ike ichetụ n'echiche. Otu akụkụ agaghị eme nke ọma na-azaghachighị ụdịdị, na-ebupụta usoro nwere ike ịgba ọsọ ngwa ngwa na mgbanwe apocalyptic. “Agha nuklia a kpaara ókè,” n’ikwu ya n’ụzọ ọzọ, bụ echiche efu nke onye nzuzu ma jiri nwayọọ nwayọọ kweta n’ụwa nile dị ka nke a. Adịkwaghị, dị mwute ikwu.
N'adịghị ka ngwá agha ndị a na-eji akọ eme ihe, e mere ngwá agha nuklia ndị na-akparịta ụka n'etiti kọntinent ka e mere iji lekwasị anya kpọmkwem n'ala nna ndị iro dị anya. Ruo ugbu a, ike mbibi ha dị ukwuu (ọtụtụ ugboro karịrị nke ahụ e mere Hiroshima) mere ka ọ ghara ikwe omume iche n'echiche ezi ọnọdụ maka ojiji ha ga-abụ ihe fọrọ nke nta ka ọ bụrụ, ọ bụghị ikwu banyere omume, nke a na-anabata. Ọ bụ kpọmkwem iwepu mmachi ahụ bara uru - omume omume yiri ka ọ gaghị agụta - na ọchịchị Trump n'oge na-adịbeghị anya malitere usoro nke ịwepụ na Nkwekọrịta Ndị agha Nkwekọrịta Nkwekọrịta Nkwekọrịta Nzuzo nke Oge Nzuzo, ebe ị na-atụgharị ngwa agha "nwere oke" ọhụrụ na ahịrị mgbakọ wee gbanwee usoro Trident. Site na omume ndị a, enwere ike inwe ntakịrị ajụjụ na ụmụ mmadụ na-abanye n'ime ihe egwu ọgbọ nuklia nke abụọ.
That peril lies in the way a 70-year-old inhibition that undoubtedly saved the planet is potentially being shelved in a new world of supposedly “eme ihe” nukes. Of course, a weapon with one-third the destructive power of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima, where as many as 150,000 died, might kill 50,000 people in a similar attack before escalation even began. Of such nukes, former Secretary of State George Shultz, who was at President Ronald Reagan’s elbow when Cold War-ending arms control negotiations climaxed, kwuru, “A nuclear weapon is a nuclear weapon. You use a small one, then you go to a bigger one. I think nuclear weapons are nuclear weapons and we need to draw the line there.”
Kedu ka ọ dị nso na etiti abalị?
Ruo ugbu a, ọ bụ ihe na-adịghị mma nke ọgbọ nuklia na ụfọdụ ndị na-akatọ ngwa ọgụ dị otú ahụ siri ike sitere n'etiti ndị kere ya. Ihe nnọchianya nke ahụ bụ Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, a bimonthly journal founded after the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by veteran scientists from the Manhattan Project, which created the first nuclear weapons. (Today, that magazine’s sponsors include Ndi 14 Nobel Laureates.) Malite na 1947, ndị Akwụkwọ akụkọIhe mkpuchi ahụ na-arụ ọrụ kwa afọ dị ka ụdị mkpu nuklia, na-egosipụta ihe a na-akpọ Doomsday Clock, aka nkeji ya na-abịarute mgbe niile "etiti abalị" (akọwapụtara dị ka oge ọdachi nuklia).
N'afọ mbụ ahụ, a na-edobe aka na nkeji asaa ruo etiti abalị. N'afọ 1949, mgbe Soviet Union nwetasịrị bọmbụ atọm mbụ ya, ọ gbara ihe dị ka nkeji atọ tupu etiti abalị. N'ime afọ ndị gafeworonụ, a tọgharịala ya n'ọnwa Jenụwarị ọ bụla iji debanye aha n'ọkwa dị egwu nuklia na-ebelata ma na-ebelata. Na 1991, mgbe Agha Nzuzo biri, e debere ya na nkeji iri na asaa ma mesịa, ruo afọ ole na ole nwere olileanya, elekere ahụ kwụsịrị kpamkpam.
It came back in 2005 at seven minutes to midnight. In 2007, the scientists began factoring climate degradation into the assessment and the hands moved inexorably forward. By 2018, after a year of Donald Trump, it clocked in at two minutes to midnight, a shrill alarm meant to signal a return to the greatest peril ever: the two-minute level reached only once before, Afọ 65 tupu mgbe ahụ. Last month, within days of the announced manufacture of the first W76-2, the Akwụkwọ akụkọ mkpuchi maka 2019 bụ kpughere, still at that desperate two-minute mark, aka the edge of doom.
To fully appreciate how precarious our situation is today, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists na-akpọ anyị n'ezoghị ọnụ ka anyị laghachi n'oge nkeji abụọ-tupu etiti abalị ahụ ọzọ. Ọ bụrụ na imepụta ngwa agha nuklia ọhụrụ na-emepụta obere mkpụrụ na-egosi isi ihe dị mkpa na-alaghachi azụ n'ihe egwu, were ya dị ka ihe mgbagwoju anya na oge ikpeazụ dị otú ahụ gụnyere imepụta ụdị ngwa ọgụ dị oke egwu: ngwa agha “dị oke”, dị ka a na-akpọ ya mgbe ahụ. , ma ọ bụ bọmbụ hydrogen. Nke ahụ bụ na 1953 na ihe nwere ike ịbụ mgbanwe kacha njọ na akụkọ nuklia ruo ugbu a ka mere.
Mgbe ndị Soviet gbawara bọmbụ atọmịk mbụ ha na 1949, United States malitere usoro mkpọka iji wuo ngwa agha nuklia dị ike karị. N'ịbụ onye ewepụrụ mgbe Agha Ụwa nke Abụọ gasịrị, a rụgharịrị osisi Pantex ma bụrụkwa isi mmalite nke nukes America kemgbe ahụ.
Bọmbụ atọm bụ ngwa agha fission, nke pụtara na a na-ekewa nuclei nke atọm n'ime akụkụ nke mkpokọta ha dị obere karịa nke mbụ atọm, ọdịiche ahụ agbanweela ka ọ bụrụ ike. Bọmbụ hydrogen na-eji oke okpomọkụ nke “fission” ahụ na-ebute (ya mere Thermonuklia) dị ka ihe na-akpalite “njikọ,” ma ọ bụ ijikọta, nke ihe ndị dị ike karị, nke na-ebute oke mfu nke oke ka agbanwere ka ọ bụrụ ike mgbawa nke ụdị a na-echebughị. Otu H-bọmbụ na-emepụta ike mgbawa ugboro 100 ruo 1,000 ike mbibi nke bọmbụ Hiroshima.
Nyere ụdị ike ụmụ mmadụ chere naanị n'aka chi, ndị isi sayensị sayensị mbụ Manhattan Project, gụnyere Enrico Fermi, James Conant, na J. Robert Oppenheimer, megidere nke ọma mmepe nke ngwa agha ọhụrụ dị otú ahụ dị ka ihe nwere ike iyi egwu na ụdị mmadụ. Super Bomb ga-abụ, n'okwu Conant, "onye ogbugbu." N'ịgbaso nduzi nke ndị ọkà mmụta sayensị ahụ, ndị òtù Atomic Energy Commission kwadoro - site na votu nke atọ na abụọ - megide ịmepụta ngwa agha dị otú ahụ, ma President Truman nyere iwu ka eme ya.
Na 1952, ka ule H-bọmbụ nke mbụ na-eru nso, ndị ọkà mmụta sayensị atọmịk bụ́ ndị ka na-eche banyere ha tụrụ aro ka e yigharịa ule ahụ ruo mgbe ebighị ebi iji gbochie asọmpi “ọkachamara” nke a na-enwe na ndị Soviet. Ha tụrụ aro ka e mee ka Moscow bịaruo nso iji kpachapụta mmepe nke thermonuclear naanị maka nyocha, ọ bụghị nnwale nke ngwa agha dị otú ahụ, ọkachasị ebe ọ bụ na ọ nweghị nke a ga-eme na nzuzo. N'akụkụ nke ọzọ ga-achọpụta ngwa ngwa mgbawa mgbawa nke bọmbụ fusion, nke nwere ike ịga n'ihu na mmemme nnwale nke ya. Ndị ọkà mmụta sayensị ahụ gbara Moscow na Washington ume ka ha dọpụta ụdị akara njikwa ngwá agha nke mba abụọ ahụ ga-ekwenye n'ezie na ọtụtụ afọ ka e mesịrị.
At the time, the United States had the initiative. An out-of-control arms race with the potential accumulation of thousands of such weapons on both sides had not yet really begun. In 1952, the United States numbered its atomic arsenal in the low hundreds; the Soviet Union in the dozens. (Even those numbers, of course, already offered a vision of an Armageddon-like global war.) President Truman considered the proposal to indefinitely postpone the test. It was then backed by figures like Vannevar Bush, who headed the Office of Scientific Research and Development, which had overseen the wartime Manhattan Protect. Scientists like him already grasped the lesson that would only slowly dawn on policymakers — that every advance in the atomic capability of one of the superpowers would inexorably lead the other to match it, mgbasa ozi infinitum. The title of the bestselling James Jones novel of that moment caught the feeling perfectly: From Here to Eternity.
N'ụbọchị ikpeazụ nke onye isi ala ya, Otú ọ dị, Truman kpebiri megide mweghachi nke ule ahụ na-adịghị agwụ agwụ - megide, ya bụ, nkwụsịtụ na nchịkọta nuklia nke nwere ike gbanwee akụkọ ihe mere eme. Na November 1, 1952, H-bọmbụ mbụ - "Mike" - bụ gbawara n'otu agwaetiti dị na Pacific. O nwere ike na-egbu mmadụ ugboro 500 karịa bọmbụ ahụ kpochapụrụ Hiroshima. N'ịbụ onye e ji ọkụ ọkụ mee ihe karịrị kilomita atọ n'obosara, ọ bụghị nanị na o bibiri ihe owuwu ụlọ elu atọ e wuru maka ya kamakwa n'àgwàetiti Elugelab dum, yana akụkụ nke ọtụtụ àgwàetiti ndị dị nso.
N'ụzọ dị otú a, thermuclear afọ malitere na mgbakọ ahịrị n'otu Pantex osisi malitere n'ezie purr. N'ihe na-erughị afọ 10 ka e mesịrị, United States nwere 20,000 nukes, ọtụtụ n'ime ha-bọmbụ; Moscow, erughị 2,000. Na ọnwa atọ mgbe mbụ ule, na Akwụkwọ akụkọ nke Atomic Scientists kpaliri aka ahụ na elekere ọhụrụ ya ka ọ bụrụ nkeji abụọ tupu etiti abalị.
Ụdị nke Madman-Theory nke Ụwa
Ọ nwere ike iyi ihe na-adịghị mma iji tụnyere mmepụta nke ihe a na-akpọ "mini-nuke" na mmepụta nke "super" ihe fọrọ nke nta ka ọ bụrụ iri afọ isii gara aga, mana n'eziokwu, gịnị ka "obere" nwere ike inwe n'ezie mgbe anyị na-ekwu maka agha nuklia? Isi ihe bụ na, dị ka ọ dị na 1952, yabụ na 2019, a na-agafe ebe ọzọ na-akpụzi oge n'otu ụlọ ọrụ ngwa ọgụ dị na steeti Texas Panhandle dị elu, ebe emepụtara ọtụtụ ngwa ọgụ. N'ụzọ na-emegide onwe ya, n'ihi na e mesịrị ghọta H-bomb ahụ kpọmkwem ihe ndị ọkà mmụta sayensị na-emegiderịta onwe ha kwuworo na ọ bụ - ngwá agha mgbukpọ - nrụgide megide ojiji ya bụ nke a na-apụghị imeri emeri n'ime ihe fọrọ nke nta ka ọ bụrụ afọ iri anọ nke iro obi ọjọọ nke East-West. Taa, W76-2 nke Trident nwere ike inwe mmetụta dị iche - omume mbibi mbụ ya nwere ike ịbụ mkpochapụ nke ogologo oge, post-Hiroshima na Nagasaki taboo megide iji nuklia. N'ikwu ya n'ụzọ ọzọ, ọtụtụ afọ ka e kpochapụrụ àgwàetiti Elugelab n'ụwa, a na-emezi "ngwa agha zuru oke" n'ikpeazụ.
With President Trump na-ekpochapụ The theoretical from Richard Nixon's "theory crazy" - na nkwenye nke onye isi ala mbụ na onye mmegide kwesịrị ịtụ egwu onye ndu America na-ejighị n'aka na ọ nwere ike ịkwanye bọtịnụ nuklia - gịnị ka a ga-eme? Ọzọkwa, ndị ọkà mmụta sayensị na-enwe obi abụọ banyere nuklia, bụ́ ndị ghọworo nsogbu ndị dị mkpa dị n'ọgbakọ nuklia na-edo anya nke ọma ruo ụzọ anọ n'ụzọ anọ nke narị afọ, na-atụ aka n'ụzọ ahụ. Na 2017, Union of Concerned Scientists, yana ndị dọkịta na-ahụ maka ọrụ ọha, ulo oru Laghachi na Brink: Oku iji gbochie agha nuklia, "atụmatụ mba na-achọ ịgbanwe amụma ngwa agha nuklia US ma duga anyị n'ụzọ dị ize ndụ anyị nọ."
Engaging a broad coalition of civic organizations, municipalities, religious groups, educators, and scientists, it aims to lobby government bodies at every level, to raise the nuclear issue in every forum, and to engage an ever-wider group of citizens in pressing for change in American nuclear policy. Back From the Brink makes ise choro, much needed in a world in which the U.S. and Russia are withdrawing from a key Cold-War-era nuclear treaty with more potentially to come, including the New START pact that emebie afọ abụọ site ugbu a. Ihe ise a chọrọ bụ:
- No to first use of nukes. (Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Adam Smith only recently webata Iwu enweghị nke mbụ na ụlọ abụọ nke Congress iji kwụsị Trump na ndị isi ala n'ọdịnihu ịmalite agha nuklia.)
- End the unchecked launch-authority of the president. (Last month, Senator Edward Markey and Representative Ted Lieu emepụtaghachiri ụgwọ nke ga-eme nke ahụ.)
- Mba na-akpata ntutu isi nuklia.
- Mba na-emeghari na dochie ngwa agha (dị ka US na-eme ugbu a na ụda nke ikekwe. $ 1.6 puku ijeri ihe karịrị iri afọ atọ).
- Ee na nkwekọrịta mkpochapụ n'etiti mba ndị nwere ngwa agha nuklia.
Ihe ndị a chọrọ sitere na nso nso a ga-enweta ruo ogologo oge a na-atụ anya ya, mana dịka otu ha na-akọwapụta ihe anya doro anya kwesịrị ịbụ na ụdị Donald Trump ọhụrụ nke afọ nuklia anyị na-adịghị agwụ agwụ.
N'ime oge ndọrọ ndọrọ ọchịchị onye isi ala na-abịa, ajụjụ nuklia bụ nke kachasị elu nke ebumnuche onye ọ bụla. Ọ bụ n'etiti ọgbakọ ọ bụla yana n'obi mkpebi onye ọ bụla na-eme ntuli aka. A chọrọ ihe tupu W76-2 na ndị ga-anọchi ya kụziere mbara ụwa post-Hiroshima ihe agha nuklia bụ n'ezie.
James Carroll, TomDispatch mgbe nile na mbụ Boston Globe onye edemede, bụ onye dere akwụkwọ 20, nke kacha nso nso a akwụkwọ akụkọ The Cloister (Ụbọchị abụọ). Akụkọ ya nke Pentagon, Ụlọ Agha, meriri ihe nrite PEN-Galbraith. Ihe ndekọ ya, Ihe ndị American Requiem, meriri ihe nrite akwụkwọ nke mba. Ọ bụ onye otu nke American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
Edemede a pụtara na TomDispatch.com, weblog nke National Institute of the Nation, nke na-enye usoro isi mmalite, akụkọ na echiche sitere n'aka Tom Engelhardt, onye nchịkọta akụkọ ogologo oge na mbipụta, onye na-arụkọ ọrụ nke Alaeze Ukwu America, onye dere akwụkwọ. Ọgwụgwụ nke omenala mmeri, dịka nke akwụkwọ akụkọ, Ụbọchị Ikpeazụ nke mbipụta. Akwụkwọ ọhụrụ ya bụ A Nation Unmade By War (Haymarket Books).
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