Ua ntej, txoj xov zoo. Cov lus pom zoo ntawm James Baker's "Iraq Study Group" yog ib feem yeej rau cov neeg Iraq thiab rau kev tawm tsam kev ua tsov rog hauv Tebchaws Meskas.
Lub New York Sun tau tshaj tawm rau lub Kaum Hlis 12 (http://www.nysun.com/article/41371) tias pawg thawj coj saib xyuas bipartisan tsim los ntawm Congress nrog kev txhawb nqa ntawm Bush Administration tab tom xav txog ob daim ntawv xaiv, "Stability First" thiab "Redeploy. thiab Contain, โob qho tib si uas tawm tsam cov kab liab uas tau muab tso tseg los ntawm Bush Administration.
"Stability First" sib cav hais tias cov tub rog yuav tsum tsom mus rau kev ruaj ntseg ntawm Baghdad thaum lub Teb Chaws Asmeskas yuav tsum ua hauj lwm rau kev pab nom tswv nrog cov neeg tawm tsam. Daim ntawv ceeb toom rov qab hauv Los Angeles Times thaum Lub Kaum Hli 16 (http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-fg-planb16oct16,1,2808996,full.story) qhia txog qhov tseeb tias ib feem ntawm qhov kev pom zoo no yog tias Asmeskas yuav tsum ncav cuag Iran thiab Syria.
Lwm qhov kev xaiv, "Redeploy and Contain," mus ntxiv. Nws hu kom maj mam tshem tawm cov tub rog Asmeskas mus rau lub hauv paus sab nraum Iraq uas lawv yuav muaj rau kev tawm tsam tawm tsam cov koom haum ua phem nyob txhua qhov chaw hauv cheeb tsam.
Txog rau tam sim no Bush Administration tau tsis kam lees lub tswv yim ntawm kev sib tham ncaj qha nrog Syria thiab Iran, thiab tseem tsis kam lees lub tswv yim ntawm kev tshem tawm cov tub rog los ntawm Iraq. Nws yog ib txoj xov zoo uas Baker commission yuav muab cov no tso rau ntawm lub rooj. Nws yuav muab cov tswv yim zoo li no tseem ceeb rau kev cai lij choj, ua rau nws nyuaj rau Bush Administration tso lawv, thiab tseem muab kev tswj hwm kev nom kev tswv yog tias nws txiav txim siab coj lawv.
Thiab raws li nws yuav yog ib qho zoo heev rau lub ntiaj teb yog tias Asmeskas tau thim nws cov tub rog los ntawm Iraq, thiab qhib kev sib tham loj nrog Iran thiab Syria, qhov ntawd yog xov xwm zoo.
Tab sis qee qhov kev ceev faj yog nyob rau hauv kev txiav txim. Ib tug yog general. Qhov tseeb tias cov tswv yim no tau ntab plaub lub lis piam ua ntej kev xaiv tsa tsis muaj kev lees paub tias lawv yuav raug ua tom qab ntawd. Thiab txawm hais tias lawv tau ua, muaj qhov txaus ntshai uas Asmeskas yuav ua ntej lawv nrog kev ua phem rau lub sijhawm kawg: qhov no yog tus qauv rau lub hwj chim imperial thaum lawv raug yuam kom thim, "kom ua pov thawj tias lawv tsis raug yuam. thim rov qab." Tej zaum yuav mute cov kev ua koob tsheej nrog kev quaj ntsuag.
Tab sis muaj kev ceeb toom ntev dua: yuav ua li cas ntxiv. Kev tshem tawm ntawm Asmeskas cov tub rog "mus rau lub hauv paus sab nraum Iraq qhov chaw uas lawv yuav muaj rau kev tawm tsam tawm tsam cov koom haum ua phem nyob txhua qhov chaw hauv cheeb tsam" tsuas yog ib txoj hauv kev hais tias: peb tsis khiav tawm.
Los yog nws tuaj yeem tsom rau Iran.
Qee cov neeg uas lawv paub thiab paub txog kev saib xyuas xav tias Asmeskas tawm tsam Iran tuaj yeem tshwm sim. Tseeb tiag, Tub Rog Tub Rog Tub Rog Tub Rog Tub Rog Tub Rog Tub Rog Sam Gardiner hais tias kev ua tub rog tau pib hauv Iran lawm. (http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/04/17/143241) "Qhov teeb meem tsis yog kev xaiv tub rog tab sis leej twg pom zoo pib ua haujlwm lawm," nws hais. US warships tab tom txav mus rau thaj tsam, thiab cov phiaj xwm rau kev tawm tsam huab cua thiab kev thaiv tub rog tau raug kho tshiab, nws tau sau tseg.
Tau kawg, cov kev txav no yuav muaj txiaj ntsig yog tias Asmeskas yuav tawm tsam Iran, thiab lawv kuj tseem yuav muaj txiaj ntsig yog tias Asmeskas xav kom Iran xav tias nws tuaj yeem tawm tsam, tsis tas yuav ua nws tus kheej.
Lwm tus sib cav hais tias tsis muaj txoj hauv kev uas Asmeskas yuav qhib tawm tsam Iran nrog 140,000 cov tub rog bogged hauv Iraq. Nws tsis yog tias cov tub rog no raug txwv tsis pub nyob - lawv nthuav tawm lub hom phiaj txaus nyiam rau kev ua pauj.
Tab sis yuav ua li cas yog tias tsis muaj 140,000 Asmeskas cov tub rog hauv Iraq - yog li cas?
Nws zoo nkaus li tias Asmeskas kev hem thawj los tawm tsam Iran yuav nce ntxiv - ib yam li Israeli tshem tawm ntawm Gaza tau dhau los ua qhov ua ntej rau nthwv dej tshiab ntawm kev tawm tsam. "Saib," Tebchaws Asmeskas tuaj yeem hais tias, "peb thim rov qab. Yog li dab tsi tshwm sim tam sim no hauv Iraq tsis yog peb qhov txhaum. Nws yog Iran qhov txhaum thiab Syria qhov txhaum. Yog tias lawv txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv,โ (qhov 'kev sib cav' txhais tau tias, 'ua tsis tau dab tsi peb tuaj yeem liam rau lawv'); ces "peb tsis muaj kev xaiv tab sis yuav teb."
Yog li, thaum nws txaus siab rau kev kwv yees, los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev nqis tes ua, nws tsis muaj teeb meem yog tias Bush Administration npaj yuav tawm tsam Iran ua ntej kev xaiv tsa, lossis tom qab kev xaiv tsa, lossis xyoo 2007 lossis 2008, lossis yog tias nws tsis tau. t mus txog qhov kev pom zoo thiab tsuas yog npaj rau "kev cuam tshuam" ntawm kev ua li ntawd. Muaj qhov txaus ntshai heev uas Asmeskas yuav tawm tsam Iran nyob rau yav tom ntej - thaum Bush lub sijhawm ua haujlwm - thiab thaum nws ntsib kev txwv sab nraud, cov lus nug tseem ceeb yuav yog qhov twg pej xeem kev xav hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas tuaj yeem tawm tsam txoj cai ua ntej. Washington tsim ua irrevocably cog lus rau nws.
Yog li ntawd nws tseem ceeb heev uas yuav tsum ua tam sim no. Yog tias nws pom tseeb tias Asmeskas yuav tawm tsam Iran, peb yuav tau plam peb lub sijhawm zoo tshaj plaws rau kev nqis tes ua, ua ntej Bush Administration muaj txhua yam teeb tsa. Peb yuav tsum koom nrog peb tus kheej pre-emption.
Ua thawj kauj ruam. Kos npe rau Txoj Cai Txawv Teb Chaws Ncaj Ncees / Kev Ncaj Ncees Kev Ncaj Ncees tawm tsam kev ua tsov rog nrog Iran ntawm http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/involved/iranpetition.html.