Ke hoʻomākaukau nei ʻo New Delhi a me Islamabad e hoʻomau i kā lākou kamaʻilio bilateral, ʻo ke kulekele o India e pili ana i kona kaiāulu komohana ke kū nei i kahi paʻakikī i ʻike ʻole ʻia. Pehea e hana ai ʻo India i kāna pane i ka paʻakikī a me ka loli wikiwiki o ke kūlana ma Pakistan a me Afghanistan e hoʻoikaika nui i ka hopena o kekahi o nā wahi ʻoi loa o ka honua, ʻo ia kahi ʻāpana o ka crucible i hana ʻia ai ka mōʻaukala honua. ʻO ka piʻi ʻana i ka paʻakikī e koi i ka hoʻoponopono hou ʻana i kekahi o nā wahi kumu a me nā mea nui o ke kulekele ʻē aʻe o India. E noʻonoʻo mua iā Afghanistan.
Ke hana nei kahi hoʻololi nui i ke koena o nā pūʻali ma Afghanistan. Ua hoʻokumu nā pūʻali koa North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) i alakaʻi ʻia e ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a me nā pūʻali o ka Afghan National Army i ka Operation Mushtarak ("hui pū" ma Dari), kekahi o nā hoʻouka kaua nui loa a nā pūʻali koa Komohana mai ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana iā Afghanistan i ʻOkakopa 2001. ʻO ka hana, me nā pūʻali 15,000, ua hoʻomaka me ka ʻino ʻana o Marjah (ka lehulehu: 80,000) ma ka ʻāina ʻo Helmand Hema, kahi paʻa o ka Taliban no nā makahiki he nui. ʻAʻole like me nā mikiona koa ʻē aʻe e ka US-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), ʻo Operation Mushtarak i manaʻo ʻia e hana i kahi kumu hoʻohālike hou e hele aku ma mua o ka wehe ʻana o ka Taliban. Manaʻo ia e hoʻokumu hou i ka mana o Afghan ma o ka hoʻokomo ʻana i kahi aupuni kīwila, e hāʻawi ana i nā lawelawe aupuni a hiki ke lanakila i ke kākoʻo kaulana a me ka pono. I nā makahiki ʻewalu i hala iho nei, ua ʻike ka hapa nui o nā kūlanakauhale a me nā kūlanakauhale i ka Taliban–Al Qaeda e nā pūʻali ISAF i ka hoʻi ʻana o nā pūʻali koa a hoʻokumu hou iā lākou iho. I kēia manawa, e lawe mai nā pūʻali koa i kahi aupuni Afghan me nā mākaʻi a noho mau e kākoʻo iā lākou. E like me kā General Stanley McChrystal, ka luna alakaʻi kiʻekiʻe o ʻAmelika, i ʻōlelo ai: "He aupuni kā mākou i loko o kahi pahu, mākaukau e ʻōwili i loko."
Ua hōʻike ʻo The New York Times: "Ma mua o kēlā me kēia manawa mai 2001, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o nā koa ʻAmelika a me NATO i ka pepehi ʻana i ka poʻe kipi Taliban ma mua o ke kūkulu ʻana i nā kamaʻāina Afghan a me ke kūkulu ʻana i kahi mokuʻāina ʻo Afghan. 'ʻAʻole ka ʻenemi ka heluna kanaka,' ʻo Brigadier General Larry Nicholson, ka luna o ka Marines ma ka hema o Afghanistan, i haʻi aku i kahi pūʻali koa i kēia pule. 'O ka heluna kanaka ka makana – ʻo lākou ke kumu e komo ai mākou.' ”
ʻO kēia ka manawa mua e nānā ai ka US i ka hoʻomohala ʻana a me nā ʻoihana o ke aupuni ma Afghanistan - he mea pono e hana koke ʻia ma hope o ka haʻalele ʻana o ka Taliban mai ka mana ma 2002. ʻAʻole maopopo ʻole inā e kūleʻa kēia kumu hoʻolālā aupuni a ʻaʻole paha. Ma ka hoʻāʻo ʻana ka hoʻolālā kūʻē kipi hou i manaʻo ʻia e Gen. McChrystal, ʻo ia ke kumu i hoʻoholo ai ka Pelekikena ʻAmelika ʻo Barack Obama i kēia manawa e hoʻouna aku i 30,000 mau pūʻali koa US i Afghanistan a huki hou i 10,000 mai nā aupuni NATO ʻē aʻe, e hoʻonui ana i ka ikaika o ka ISAF mai 113,000 a ʻoi aku ma mua o 150,000 ma ʻAukake. ʻO ka piʻi ʻana, ua helu ʻia, e hoʻonāwaliwali i ka Taliban no ka nui o lākou e makemake e haʻalele i ka Afghan National Army (ANA) a komo i ke kaʻina hana o ka hoʻohui a me ka hoʻolauleʻa. E hoʻomaka ana ʻo ʻAmelika e haʻalele i nā pūʻali koa i Iulai makahiki aʻe.
ʻOiai inā kūleʻa ka hoʻolālā ma ka moku ʻo Helmand, paʻakikī ke ʻike pehea e hiki ai ke hoʻonui ʻia i ke koena o Afghanistan me ka ʻole o ka nui o nā pūʻali ma mua o 150,000. A ʻo ka manaʻo o ka lehulehu ma kekahi o nā ʻāina he 40 i hāʻawi i nā pūʻali koa i ka ISAF - ka hapa nui ma nā helu liʻiliʻi; no ka laʻana, hoʻokahi mai Georgia, ʻehā mai Austria, a ʻehiku kēlā me kēia mai ʻIlelani a me Ioredane - makemake e hoʻouna hou aku i nā pūʻali koa i ke kaua i ʻike ʻia e ka hapa nui o ka poʻe ʻaʻole hiki ke lanakila. He ʻoiaʻiʻo maoli kēia no ka US, kahi i kūʻē ai ka 59 pakeneka o ka heluna kanaka i ka hoʻouna ʻana i nā pūʻali koa.
ʻO kahi pilikia koʻikoʻi inā hiki i nā pūʻali alakaʻi US ke hoʻokau i ka pōʻino kūpono ma luna o ka Taliban a hoʻokumu i kahi ʻano o ka mana kīwila i hiki ai i ke kaʻina hana o ka hoʻohui ʻana i kūkākūkā ʻia ma ka ʻaha kūkā ʻo Lākana ma Afghanistan e hiki ai ke ola. ʻO ka pane pōkole, ʻaʻole paha kēia i hāʻawi ʻia i ka moʻolelo a ka ISAF a me ke ʻano o ka hakakā Afghan. I kēia manawa, ʻaʻole hiki i nā pūʻali koa 113,000 o ka ISAF, i kākoʻo ʻia e 104,000 mercenaries, ʻaʻole i hiki ke hopu, hoʻoneʻe a pepehi paha i ka helu liʻiliʻi o nā kāne Al Qaeda e noho malu ana ma ka ʻāina - i manaʻo ʻia ma kahi o 100 ma Afghanistan a me 300 ma Pakistan.
ʻO ke kūlana kiʻekiʻe o ka helu, a me ke kiʻekiʻe o ke ahi - i hoʻolako ʻia e nā drones, nā pahu alakaʻi laser, nā mokulele kaua a me nā ʻano mea kaua kiʻekiʻe ʻē aʻe - ʻaʻole i hiki i ka ISAF ke lanakila ma luna o ka Taliban-Al Qaeda. ʻOiaʻiʻo, ma nā wahi o Afghanistan, ke holomua nei ka Taliban me ka wiwo ʻole. ʻAʻole hiki i ka hapa nui o kāna poʻe hakakā ke hui pū me ka ANA, me kāna uku haʻahaʻa a me ka morale, ʻoiai inā hāʻawi ʻia lākou i ke kīpē, e like me ka manaʻo o ka US e hana. Ma hope o kahi hoʻomaʻamaʻa lōʻihi, hiki i nā mea hakakā Afghan ke mālama i ke kīpē i ka wā e sabotaging ana i ka ANA.
ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻohe hoʻolālā maʻalahi o ka US e hoʻopau i ke kaua Afghanistan - ʻoi aku ka nui ma mua o ka wā i hoʻomaka ai. ʻO George W. Bush's Global War on Terror ka pane kuli i ka Sepatemaba 2001 hoʻouka kaua mai kahi hoʻokumu me ka manaʻo militaristic ikaika, ka mea i hoʻoholo i nā koho e like me ka hoʻopiʻiʻana i nā alakaʻi o Al Qaeda i loko o kahi hui kānāwai e like me ka International Criminal Court a iʻole. he aha hoʻokolokolo kūikawā i hoʻokumu ʻia ma lalo o ka United Nations a me ke kūkulu ʻana i Afghanistan hou ma o nā keʻena democratic a me ke komo ʻana o ka lehulehu i kahi papahana hoʻomohala kālā nui - e like me ka Marshall Plan.
Ua makemake ka US e hoʻopaʻi iā Al Qaeda-Taliban no 9 / 11 a hoʻokaʻawale iā lākou. Ua hoʻokumu ʻo Wakinekona a me kāna poʻe apologists i kekahi mau kumu kūpono no ke komo ʻana i Afghanistan, e like me kā lākou i hana ai no Iraq a me Yugoslavia mua - me ka hakakā ʻana i ka weliweli honua o ka hoʻoweliweli, ke kūkulu ʻana i ke aupuni democracy, ka hoʻololi ʻana i kahi kaiāulu i hopu ʻia i ka wā kahiko a me ka hoʻolaha ʻana i ke aloha kanaka. ka pahuhopu o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i nā wahine Afghan. Akā e like me kā Obama i hoʻokomo ai i kāna haʻiʻōlelo ʻo Dekemaba 1 e hoʻolaha ana i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kaua, ʻo ka pahuhopu maoli ʻo ia "e hoʻopau, hoʻopau, a lanakila iā Al Qaeda ma Afghanistan a me Pakistan, a e pale i kona hiki ke hoʻoweliweli iā ʻAmelika a me kā mākou mau hoa pili i ka wā e hiki mai ana". ʻAʻole pili kēia i ka poʻe Afghan ma mua o ʻAmelika.
ʻAʻole hiki ke ʻike ʻia ka hopena e haʻalele ʻo ʻAmelika iā Afghanistan i kahi pōʻino weliweli, me ka liʻiliʻi o ka hōʻoiaʻiʻo e hiki ke hoʻohuli ʻia ka "momentum o Taliban" a me kona "hiki ke hoʻokahuli i ke aupuni" ʻoʻopa - nā pahuhopu i ʻōlelo ʻia e ka US. Ke ulu nei ke kūlana o Afghanistan ma kāna mau ʻano kuhi hewa a paʻa ʻole, e lilo ka US i mea hilinaʻi nui aʻe ma Pakistan, ʻaʻole wale no ke kākoʻo logistic akā no ka uwao politika. ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ua hāʻawi ʻo Gen. Pervez Ashafaq Kayani e uwao ma ka loaʻa ʻana o kahi pūʻali koa Taliban nui, i hoʻomalu ʻia e nā kaikuaʻana Haqqani, ma luna o ka hoʻolālā hoʻolauleʻa US.
E ʻimi ana ʻo Pakistan e hoʻonui a hoʻonui i kona mana ma Afghanistan, me kona hoʻoikaika pūʻali koa, ʻaʻole ka liʻiliʻi loa no ka hopohopo i nā hana a India ma laila. E alakaʻi pū ia i kahi kūʻai paʻakikī me ka US no ke kōkua ʻana i nā pūʻali NATO, me ka ʻoi aku o ke kōkua koa a me ka hoʻokele waiwai. Ma ka palena nui, hiki iā ia ke noi i kahi mea e like me ka hana nuklea ma waena o India a me US
Hooweliweli i ka palekana āpana
ʻAʻohe o kēia, me ka haunaele ʻo Afghanistan ma lalo o ka mana o Taliban, he mea maikaʻi no ka palekana kūloko. Ua hewa loa ka US i kau inoa i ka ʻaelike nuklea me India, ʻaʻole ia e hōʻoia wale i nā mea kaua nuklea o India akā hiki iā India ke hoʻonui i kāna mea kaua nuklea. Ma ka mālama ʻana i ka ʻewalu o kāna mau mana reactors mai ke aupuni o ka nānā ʻana o ka honua, hiki i India ke hana i kēlā me kēia makahiki he 200 kg o nā mea kaua-grade plutonium mai kā lākou wahie i hoʻopau ʻia me ka uranium ʻōiwi wale nō - lawa no ka 40 a 80 Nagasaki bombs i ka makahiki - Ma waho aʻe o ka hoʻonui nui ʻana i kāna mau mea kaua nuklea. E ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi inā loaʻa iā Pakistan kahi laikini like ʻole. E hōʻike ana kēia i ka heihei kaua nuklea ma Asia Hema.
ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hopena o ka hoʻokūkū kiʻekiʻe o India-Pakistan ma Afghanistan, ʻo ia ka mea e mālama ai i kēlā ʻāina ʻilihune, mokuʻāina a ʻāhaehae i ke kaua no ka manawa lōʻihi. ʻO ia ka mea e hoʻonui ai i ka Taliban a me nā pūʻali koa ʻē aʻe, no laila e hoʻopau hou i ka Pakistan a hoʻonui i ka hoʻoweliweli hoʻoweliweli iā India mai nā hui jehadi.
Ua hopohopo ʻo Pakistan i ke kuleana o India ma Afghanistan no nā kumu maikaʻi ʻole. ʻO ka mea mua e pili ana i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo e hauʻoli nei ʻo India i ka manaʻo maikaʻi loa ma Afghanistan ma muli o kāna papahana kōkua kīwila $ 1.7-billion, i helu ʻia ʻo ia ka mea maikaʻi loa ma waena o nā mokuʻāina āpau. ʻAʻole like me ke kōkua o ke Komohana, i hoʻokuʻu ʻia ma nā papa waena, hāʻawi nui ʻia ke kōkua India me ka ʻole o nā middlemen a me nā subcontractors. ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi o nā pono o Afghanistan a me kāna ʻoihana mua, me nā ala ʻino, ka make o nā hale lapaʻau, nā kula a me nā limahana i aʻo ʻia. Ma nā moʻolelo a pau, kaulana loa ka papahana a India e hoʻomaʻamaʻa i nā limahana kīwila Afghan, nā diplomats, nā luna kānāwai, nā luna kānāwai a me nā mākaʻi.
ʻO nā kumu maikaʻi o Pakistan no ka makaʻu ʻana iā India e pili ana i ka wehe ʻana o nā consulate he nui e India ma nā kūlanakauhale kahi i loaʻa ʻole ai kā lākou ʻoihana kūpono a me ka hopohopo e hoʻohana ʻia kēia mau mea e kākoʻo i nā hana huna a hoʻoulu i nā pilikia ma Balochistan, kahi i ʻike ʻia ai. e lilo i mea hoike. He mea nui ia e hoʻopau ʻo India i ka makaʻu Pakistana a hoʻokomo iā Islamabad i kahi pilina hui ma Afghanistan. ʻO ke ala maikaʻi loa e hana ai, ʻo ia ka hoʻomaopopo ʻana he kuleana kūpono ko India a me Pakistan ma Afghanistan. He mau haneli mau makahiki o India me Afghanistan e pili ana i ka moʻomeheu, kālepa, mele, ʻōlelo a me nā meaʻai - ʻo Afghanistan ke kumu kumu nui o nā hua maloʻo a me ka heeng (asafoetida) i lawe ʻia e India. Loaʻa iā India kahi kuleana palekana i ka loaʻa ʻana o ka extremism-style Taliban me kāna mau hopena kūloko.
ʻAʻole ʻo Pakistan wale nō ka hoalauna pili o Afghanistan, me ʻelua mau panalāʻau paʻakikī ma ka palena he mea nui ke kūpaʻa i ke ola ʻana o Pakistan. Ua ʻoi aku ka nui o nā Pashtuns o Pakistan i loko o kona mau palena ma mua o ka noho ʻana ma Afghanistan a he kuleana kūpono i ko lākou pono a me ko lākou kūlana politika.
ʻO ka ʻike ʻana i nā pono like e alakaʻi i kekahi komo pū ʻana i nā papahana hoʻomohala a me ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i nā mea extremist. ʻAʻole maʻalahi kēia e hoʻokō inā lōʻihi ka ikaika o ka pūʻali koa ma Afghanistan a manaʻo ʻo Afghanistan he mea nui i ka loaʻa ʻana o ka "hohonu hohonu". Akā pono ʻo India e hoʻāʻo i ka mea nui e kau i ka launa pū ʻana ma ka papahana - inā pono, ma ka hoʻonui ʻana i ke ʻano o ka "composite dialogue" a ma ke kau ʻana i kahi hui kūloko e pili ana i nā mea pāʻani āpau, me Iran a me Kina.
ʻO kēia ke ʻano o ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ke ʻano kulekele o India i Pakistan. Pono ʻo India i ka maluhia a me ka hoʻolauleʻa ʻana me Pakistan ʻaʻole wale no nā kumu nui e like me ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana iā ia iho i ke kaumaha o ka hoʻokūkū kūloko, ka mea e hoʻopaʻa ai iā India a pale iā ia mai ka lilo ʻana i ka Hui Nui o nā lāhui. He mea nui ka hoʻolauleʻa no ka maluhia, ka palekana a me ka pōmaikaʻi ma ka ʻāina. ʻAʻole hiki ke palekana ʻo India ke ʻole ka maluhia, ma mua o nā mea a pau, me kona mau hoalauna, pono lākou e hele ma ke ala o ka hoʻoikaika ʻana i ka demokala kīwila a me ka ulu ʻana.
Pono ʻo India e hoʻomohala i kahi hoʻolālā o ka huki ʻana iā Pakistan i loko o kahi pilina e ʻōlelo ʻia e ka manaʻo pilina pili honua "co-bonding" - kahi kūlana o ka hana ikaika ma waena o nā hoʻokūkū mua kahi e hoʻopaʻa ai kekahi i kekahi i ka pale ʻana a me ka launa pū ʻana ma o kekahi mau hoʻonohonoho hoʻonohonoho, e like me ʻO ka hui pū ʻana o Franco-German i nā makahiki 1950 a me 1960, nāna i hoʻokumu i nā kumu no ka European Economic Community a ma hope o ka European Union.
Hoʻonohonoho kēia i ka pōʻaiapili nui no ka hoʻomaka hou ʻana o ke kūkākūkā India-Pakistan. Ua lawe ʻo Kuhina Manmohan Singh i kahi ala hoʻokipa i ka hoʻomaka ʻana i ke kamaʻilio ʻana ma Sharm El Sheik i Iulai i hala. Ua haʻalulu koke ka manaʻo. ʻAʻole pono e hoʻi hope i kēia manawa. Hiki i kēia ke hana inā ʻae ʻo India i kahi ala ākea a ʻaʻole mālama i ka manaʻo nui i nā hoʻololi bilateral i hoʻopaʻa ʻia i ka hoʻoweliweli a me kekahi mau pilikia ʻē aʻe e like me ke kaʻana ʻana i nā wai kahawai. ʻO ka "composite dialogue", me kāna ʻano i hoʻokumu ʻia o ʻelua a me ʻeono mau pilikia i hahai ʻia mai ka makahiki 1997, ua hiki ke hoʻokumu i nā ʻano like ʻole o ka launa pū ʻana, me ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o ka hoʻololi ʻana ma waena o nā lāhui ʻelua a me ka hoʻomaopopo maikaʻi ʻana i kahi e hiki ai ke hoʻokō. .
He ho'āʻo litmus kēia no ke kulekele ʻē aʻe o India. Inā hoʻokokoke ʻo India i ke kamaʻilio me ke kānalua, me ka makemake ʻole, a no ka loaʻa ʻana o ka loaʻa ʻana, hiki ke kūkulu ʻia ka hilinaʻi liʻiliʻi ma Islamabad no ka hiki ke hoʻololi ʻia. Inā ʻike ʻo ia ua kaua ʻo Pakistan iā ia iho, ua ʻoi aku ka mana o nā hui jehadi ma luna o ke kaiāulu o Pakistan e like me ka pūʻali koa, ʻo kona alakaʻi kīwila he nāwaliwali a kāohi ʻia e nā jehadis a me ka pūʻali koa, a ʻo ka hoʻoikaika ʻana i ke alakaʻi e koi i kahi hoʻolālā. ʻO ke kuʻikahi me nā ikaika o ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa a me ka democratization ma Pakistan, a laila hiki i India ke hoʻokō nui.
He mea kūpono ʻole ka manaʻo i kahi holomua wikiwiki i ka pilina o India-Pakistan. Akā ʻo ka holomua lohi, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka ʻike like ʻana a me ka launa pū ʻana - me kahi hāʻawi unilateral e wehe i ka mākeke India i kahi ʻano waiwai mai Pakistan - hiki ke hoʻokō. Pēlā nō, ʻo ka pale ʻana i ka hoʻokūkū pūʻali koa a me ka hoʻokūkū nuklea he mea nui ia.
ʻO ke ʻano o kēia mau mea a pau ke ʻano koʻikoʻi, kokoke a me ka hoʻopaʻa ʻole ʻia ʻoiai ʻoiai e ʻike ana ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻokuʻu ʻia kahi hoʻouka kaua nui ʻē aʻe, me kahi hana ʻano Mumbai. He koho paʻakikī kēia, e like me ka lāʻau ʻawaʻawa. Akā, ʻaʻohe lāʻau ʻē aʻe no ka maʻi.
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