Hoodbhoy
Ma hope o ka hoolei ʻana i kekahi mau haneli, aia nō iaʻu ma kahi o a
haneli mau ʻatikala nūpepa e pili ana i ka pilikia nuklea i kākau ʻia ma Pakistan a me India
i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala. ʻO nā mea kākau, nui loa, he nuklea hoʻokumu
"nā loea" a me nā "mea hoʻolālā". ʻO kēia poʻe, kōkua ikaika ma nā ʻaoʻao ʻelua e
ʻO ka moku'āina a me kāna mau mea hoʻolaha, ua hoʻopaʻa pono i nā kūkākūkā e pili ana i ka nuklea
kulekele. He mea pōʻino kēia no ka mea, me nā ʻokoʻa ʻokoʻa wale nō, ʻo kēia mau "poʻe loea"
ua hewa loa i kēlā me kēia wānana nui e pili ana i nā mea nuklea ma ka
ʻāpana ʻāina. Ina he mau kauka lakou, ina ua make loa ka mai. ʻo ia
ʻoiaʻiʻo ka manawa no ka manaʻo ʻelua.
e
nānā mākou i nā kikoʻī. No nā makahiki, nā ʻohana nuklea hoʻokūkū ma Pakistan a me India
noi no ka hoohuli ana i ka papahana nukelea huna o ko lakou aina i
hoʻokahi. Ua hoʻohiki lākou i kahi nirvana inā lawe ʻia kā lākou totem, ka pōma
ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, a ua ʻōlelo ʻia no nā hopena ʻino loa. Akā ua hiki mai ʻo Mei 1998
a hele, a ke kali nei mākou i ka ʻike o ka hauʻoli nuklea. No laila e nīnau kākou
ʻO kēia mau "poʻe loea" kekahi mau nīnau paʻakikī.
ka
ʻO ka nīnau mua: no ke aha i piʻi ai nā kālā pale kaua India a me Pakistani, akā
ma mua o lalo, ma hope o nā hoʻokolohua Mei 1998? ʻAʻole i manaʻo ʻia e hana ʻia kēia. ʻO ka
Ua hoʻohiki nā kānaka lapaʻau nuklear inā hiki ke hōʻike ʻia he nui ka bang
lawa, e hoʻopaʻa mau ʻia ka palekana aupuni; ka hooweliweli o ka nukelea
ʻO ka pane e pale aku i ka uhaki teritore e kekahi; a me ka pono no
e mahuka nā lima maʻamau. Ua kākau ʻoliʻoli kekahi poʻe Pakistan ma hope
ʻO ka hele ʻana i ka nuklea, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi ma mua o ka uku no nā koa. No ka mea
e paʻa ka palekana aupuni e like me ka pōhaku, hiki i nā pūlāwai pale
ʻoki ʻia, a (ma ka hope) e lilo nā kālā i ka hoʻomohala a me ka hoʻonaʻauao. ʻO ka
ʻO ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa he mea hoʻowalewale a maʻalahi hoʻi i lawe ʻia nā poʻe manaʻo maikaʻi
no ka holo.
Heaha
Ua ike anei kakou? Ma hope o ka hoʻāʻo, loaʻa nā pahu kaua,
nā pū, nā mokulele, nā moku i luna, a me nā submarines i kēia manawa i koi ʻia e ka nui o
ka poʻe like, e ʻoi aku ka wikiwiki ma mua o ka wā ma mua. E like me ka mea i ʻike ʻia, ma ka
i ka makahiki i hala aku nei, ua hoʻonui ʻo India i kāna kālā pale e ka $4 biliona. ʻO kēia
ʻO 28% ka piʻi ʻana i ka waihona kālā pale āpau o Pakistan. Ma kona aoao,
Makemake ʻo Pakistan e hoʻohālikelike i ka hoʻonui. Eia naʻe ka haunaele ma hope ona
ʻO nā hoʻāʻo tit-for-tat i hoʻolilo iā Pakistan i kahi panakalupa a i kēia lā ke hoʻomau nei i ka
ka ʻaoʻao o ka hāʻule waiwai. No laila ua hiki iā Pakistan ke uē ma kahi wale
11% ka piʻi ʻana o ka rupee. No ka mea, ua hāʻule ka rupee i ka waiwai mai Rs 46 no kēlā me kēia
dala ma mua o ka ho'āʻoʻana o Mei ma kahi o Rs 62 no ke kālā i kēia lā, ua like kēia i kahi
emi pono.
A
ʻO ka nīnau koʻikoʻi ʻelua: he aha ka mea i loaʻa i ka "minimal deterrence"? I ka kahiko maikai
ʻO nā lā, ʻo ia wale nō ka mantra, a he hapalua kakini nukes wale nō
ʻo nā mea a pau i makemake ʻia e kekahi. ʻO kā mākou mau pūkaua, ma ka liʻiliʻi loa i nā makahiki nineties,
ua lokomaikaʻi. Ua māʻona lākou i ka loaʻa ʻana o ka hiki ke nuke pono
ʻO Delhi a me Bombay. I kēlā mau manawa mālie, he hapalua kakini nukes wale nō
ua makemake lakou. Akā i kēia manawa, inā e manaʻoʻiʻo ʻia ʻo Kauka AQKhan, ua lawa ʻo Pakistan
nā pōkā a me nā missile e lawe aku i kēlā me kēia kūlanakauhale India mai Amritsar a i Bombay, a
Mysore i Kalekuta. Kapa ʻoe, ua loaʻa iā mākou, ʻo ia kāna kuleana. I keia manawa ua
ʻO nā centrifuges o Kahuta e lele ana i ʻekolu mau hola 8 i kēlā me kēia lā, 7 lā o ka pule.
Ma nā wahi ʻē aʻe, neʻe mau nā missiles Shaheen ma ka papa hana hale hana.
Ua paʻa like nā neʻe ʻana ma kēlā ʻaoʻao o ka palena. ʻO ka lohi
Ua ʻōlelo a kākau ʻo General K. Sunderji no ka pono o ka fission
nā mea kaua e "lawe aku" i nā kūlanakauhale nui o Pakistan. A laila, i ʻAukake 1999, me
ua hiki mai ka Indian Nuclear Draft Doctrine. Hoʻomaka kēia ʻāpana hana ʻino me ka a
ʻO nā mea kaua nuklea "ka hoʻoweliweli nui loa i ke kanaka", akā
Ua hoʻoholo ʻo India e "pono, hiki ke ola a mākaukau hoʻi
nā pūʻali nuklea" me "ka makemake e hoʻohana i nā pūʻali nuklea a me nā mea kaua".
He ʻekolu o nā mokulele, nā missiles ma ka ʻāina a me ke kai
waiwai, a koi aku i ke ola o nā pūʻali ma o ka hui ʻana o
nā ʻōnaehana redundant lehulehu, ka neʻe ʻana, ka hoʻopuehu a me ka hoʻopunipuni.
ka
ua loli maopopo nā manawa. I ka haʻalele maopopo ʻana mai nā manaʻo o General Sunderji
o ka helu paʻa o nā mea kaua, ʻaʻohe kikoʻī o ka mea liʻiliʻi
ʻO ke ʻano o ka pale ʻana a i ʻole ka pane maʻalahi. ʻO ka hakakā kaua nuklea kaua, hoʻokahi manawa
i manaʻo ʻia he escalatory, ua hōʻike ʻia e hoʻopili ʻia i loko o India o kēia manawa
aʻo kaua. Akā i nā makahiki i hala aku nei, ua maʻa nā hawks e lawe i ka hōʻino pilikino
inā i ʻōlelo ʻia ka hiki ʻana o ka heihei kaua. Ma kekahi seminar ka Inia
ʻO K.Subrahmanyan ka mea hoʻolālā pale kaua, i ka pane ʻana i kahi nīnau, ua pane huhū ʻo ia
"ʻO ka heihei lima he manaʻo Cold War i haku ʻia e nā mana komohana a
malihini loa i ka no'ono'o sub-continental". Hau'oli kona mau hoa Pakistan
ʻae ʻia. ʻO nā manaʻo nuklear, e like me ka Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD),
ua hoʻopili mau ʻia i nā manaʻo komohana maʻi wale nō. ʻO kā mākou hawks
kuhihewa i keia manao, e like me na mea e ae.
ka
ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo ia ka heihei nuklea a me nā aʻo, inā ma ka subcontinent a i ʻole
ma nā wahi ʻē aʻe, e alakaʻi mau ʻia e ka loiloi like ʻole implacable, hehena, holo. ʻO ke koi
hiki ole ke hoahu. Ina paha he pilikia iki o ka heihei
ʻO ka hoʻolohi ʻana, e kuhikuhi ana kahi "ʻike" nuklea i ka loaʻa hou ʻana o kēlā ʻaoʻao
a uwa no ke kokua. Me kēlā me kēia ʻumi makahiki i hala, e holomua ana ka ʻenehana
maʻalahi a maʻalahi hoʻi e hana i nā mea kaua nuklea make loa, kūʻai a hana paha
ʻoi aku ka lōʻihi a me nā missiles ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi, a hele i nā mea kaua hi-tech
nā ʻōnaehana i hiki ʻole ke noʻonoʻo ʻia i kekahi manawa ma mua. He uuku
kanalua o Pakistan a me India e hooikaika nei i ko lakou waiwai a me
hiki i ka ʻenehana i ka nui i ka ʻimi ʻana e hana, kūʻai, a ʻaihue paha
ka nui o nā mea kaua nuklea a me nā mea maʻamau o ke kaua e like me kā lākou hiki.
ka
ʻO ke kolu, a me ka hope, nīnau i kaʻu mau hoaaloha hawkish: ʻo kēlā me kēia mea i loaʻa i nā koi
e hoʻomaikaʻi ʻokoʻa ka pilina me kahi Pakistan nukili palekana
palekana nukelea India, a me ka hope? Ma hope o Kargil, a me ka mea indelible
ʻawaʻawa i hana ʻia, he mea ʻakaʻaka kēia mau ʻōlelo i kēia manawa. Eia naʻe
ua kākau kekahi mau "poʻe loea", me ke ʻano pomposity, i kēlā nuklea
ʻAʻole hiki i nā mea kaua ke kaua ma waena o Pakistan a me India. Lawe ʻia e
ʻO ka ʻatikala "End Of History" a Fukuyama, ua haʻi lākou i kahi "End of War" like.
ao ana. Ua ʻike ʻia ka ʻōlelo Lahore ma ke ʻano he hōʻoia i ko lākou mau manaʻoʻiʻo, a
hoʻohana ʻia e hōʻoiaʻiʻo i nā hoʻokolohua o Mei 1998. Ua hōʻoia kēia mau hanana i hope
koi ʻole loa.
Hāʻawi ʻo Kargil i ka laʻana mua loa i ka mōʻaukala kahi o nā mea kaua nuklea, e
ka hana ʻana i kahi pale i manaʻo ʻia no ka hoʻomaka ʻana i nā hana huna maʻamau, ʻo ia
kuleana no ka hoʻomaka ʻana i ke kaua ma mua o ka pale ʻana i kekahi. Ua ___ ia
pololei ka unrestrained propagation o ka wahahee manaoio i nukelea palekana
Ua lawe mai ʻo India a me Pakistan i ka ʻaoʻao o kahi hakakā piha i ka makahiki 1999,
ʻo ia ka mea hope loa. Ma hope o ka pau ʻana o ka uahi, ua
ua ʻike ʻia ua hoʻohaʻahaʻa nui ʻia ʻo Pakistan. Akā, ʻo India
ua nalowale ma luna o hoʻokahi kaukani kāne a loaʻa i ka ʻeha nui. ʻO ka hewa maoli nō
ʻO ka BJP, ma ke kauoha ʻana iā Pokhran-II, ua hānau maoli ʻo Kargil.
If
aia kekahi haʻawina e aʻo ʻia ma ʻaneʻi ʻo ia ka loaʻa ʻana o nā hawks India a me Pakistan
hui pū i ka lawe ʻana i ka make, ka luku, a me ka manaʻo o kahi lua kupapaʻu nuklea
no ko lakou poe kanaka. ʻO ke komo ʻana i kahi hakakā koko ʻohana, ko lākou ʻike a me
ua hoʻopilikia nui ʻia ka hoʻoholo. Ke kuhi nei lakou i ke aloha aina me ka inaina i ka
ʻāina ʻē ma mua o ke aloha no lākou iho. Poino no na kanaka o
ka subcontinent, kā lākou mana monopolistic ma luna o ka media (ʻoi aku
televise) ʻaʻole hiki ke lohe ʻia nā leo ʻē aʻe. He mea maʻamau no nā hawks
e hōʻino i nā hoa paio, e ālai i ko lākou komo ʻana i ka pāpaho, a hiki i ke kino
hooweliweli a hoouka aku ia lakou.
i keia la
ke nānā nei ka honua hopohopo iā India a me Pakistan. E hoʻomaha i kēia mau makaʻu,
ʻO ka hoʻokumu ʻana o nā ʻāina ʻelua i kēlā me kēia manawa e hoʻopuka pinepine ʻia
nā hōʻoia, kuleana hoʻohiki a me ka noho aupuni. Ke hiki ole ke hana
officially, it is done unofficially. ʻO ka poʻe hoʻokahi e ʻākoakoa nei e kamaʻilio e pili ana i ka maluhia
a e hōʻemi ana i nā pilikia a lākou i kōkua naʻaupō ai i ka hana. No laila, ma ke ʻano he ʻāpana o a
ʻO ka hoʻopunipuni nui, a me ka hana ʻana i kā lākou wahi o ka honua-trotting a me ke kūʻai ʻana, ʻo ia
I kēia manawa ka mea maʻamau i ka lele pū ʻana o nā hawks India a me Pakistan, ʻai a inu
hui pū, a ʻākoakoa i nā ʻaha kūkā i hoʻolako kālā ʻia e nā mea hāʻawi kālā honua.
ʻO ia mau hālāwai, ma ke ʻano he ʻāpana o kahi hoʻopaʻapaʻa like ʻole, i manaʻo ʻia e hōʻike i kahi
ʻO ka manaʻo e hoʻomalu maikaʻi ʻia nā mea kaua nuklea India a me Pakistan.
ka
ʻO ka charade hou loa he hālāwai ma Islamabad, e hui pū ana i ka Islamabad
Policy Research Institute a me ka hui Delhi Policy, a me ke kālā e ka
Hans-Seidel Foundation. E like me ka mea i manaʻo ʻia, ʻo ka pūʻulu maʻamau o nā pūkaua i hoʻomaha.
hiki i nā admirals, air-marshals, a me nā diplomats ke hoʻokele liʻiliʻi ma mua o ka luhi
ka ʻōlelo hou ʻana o nā kūlana kūlana. I kēia manawa ua male nā haumāna kula i kā lākou
ʻimi nā ʻoihana e hoʻokō i ke kūlana naʻauao ma o ka hoʻonui ʻana, akā
inane a pili ʻole, pili i nā mea hoʻolālā Western o nā makahiki i hala. ʻO ka
Ua hoʻopau hope ʻia ka hanana e kekahi mea komo i ka ʻaha kūkā, a me ka
heleuma-wahine o kahi papahana Television Pakistan ma hope mai, nāna i hoʻopiʻi ʻino
ʻO ka hui India e makemake ana e hoʻokuʻu i nā mea huna nuklea o Pakistan.
Ma hope o 3 mau lā ma kēia hālāwai kūikawā ma ke ʻano he mea nānā, ua haʻalele wau
e noʻonoʻo ana inā he hua ʻole a ʻoiaʻiʻo paha ia mau kūkākūkā
kūʻē i ka hua. Hoʻākoakoa lākou i nā kāne o nā ʻohana ʻelua hiki ʻole ke hūnā
ko lakou inaina like, aka, ua cloned ko lakou manao a me na manao mai ka
ʻē aʻe. ʻAʻole hiki iā lākou ke hoʻopuka i nā ʻōlelo aʻoaʻo, ʻaʻohe kūkākūkā e pili ana i ka pili a
waiwai, a ʻaʻohe manaʻo maikaʻi no nā hana e hiki mai ana. ʻAʻole hāʻawi nā ʻaoʻao ʻelua a
ʻaʻole ʻae, ʻae wale i ka hōʻole ʻana i nā manaʻo e hōʻemi i ka nuklea
nā mea kaua a me nā ʻōnaehana lawe.
ʻo ia
no laila he nīnau koʻikoʻi e pili ana i nā kūkākūkā āpau e pili ana i ka pilikia nuklea
ʻO ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa a me ka hoʻokele pilikia nuklea ua hoʻoholo ʻia e hāʻule like. Ma laila
ʻAʻole he mau haʻawina maopopo e aʻo ʻia mai ka mōʻaukala. ʻAʻole loa i loaʻa i ʻelua mau ʻilihune like ʻole,
pohihihi a me ka manao koko, e paa ana i na mana nui o
ka luku, ka nana aku i kekahi i kekahi me ka ferociously. Malia paha i kekahi lā
hiki ke loaʻa nā kūkākūkā koʻikoʻi e pili ana i ka de-escalation nuklea, kahi pilikia
He ʻāpana paha nā ana hoʻēmi. Akā ʻaʻole pōʻino nā manaʻo i kēia lā.
Xenophobic hoʻoholo-mea hoʻoholo, hoʻopuni 'ia e screeching hawks, hoomau i ka hookele a
lāhui huhu a pupule. Hoʻomana nui ko mākou mau ʻohana nuklea i nā monuments e like me
ka lua o Pokhran 98, i kēia manawa ua hoʻemi ʻia i ka luaʻi leo ʻana i ka radioactivity i loko o ka
ka ea waonahele, a me ka mauna poino o Chaghi, i hana ino loa ia a me ka hilahila
ua lilo kona helehelena i keokeo keokeo. ʻAʻole i hoʻāʻo i ka lele hoʻāʻo 648 kekona
ʻO ka hopena Agni-II i lohe ʻia ai ka hoʻomākaukau ʻana no ka Shaheen-II
ua hoomaka. I loko o ia mau kūlana, hoʻololi nuklea e ka hoʻolālā i manaʻo ʻia,
kuhi hewa a me ka helu kuhi hewa ʻana, a i ʻole ma ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana me ka ʻae ʻole
aneane hiki ole ke pakele. Inā ʻaʻohe pōʻino nuklea i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana a i ʻole
ʻaʻole koke, e lilo ia i mea pōʻino.
ka
ʻO ka mea kākau he polopeka o ka physics ma Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad.