Hōʻike ka ʻepekema hou loa ʻo ka pale ʻana i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau ʻo ia ka decarbonization piha.
Ke hana nei ʻo George Bush e like me ka huhū huhū e kokoke ana e hoʻihoʻi ʻia kona home. ʻO ka uhaʻi ʻana i ka porcelain, ka ʻoki ʻana i nā puka mai ko lākou mau hinges, ua paʻa ʻo ia ʻaʻohe mea waiwai i ka wā e kipaku ʻia ai e nā palaka. ʻO kāna mau hoʻoponopono i ke aumoe, e wehe ana i ka wao nahele o ʻAmelika i ke kālai lāʻau a me ka eli ʻana, ka ʻōpala ʻana i nā hoʻomalu haumia, ka uhae ʻana i nā kānāwai mālama, e hana kokoke i ka nui o nā pōʻino i nā lā he 60 i hala o kāna pelekikena e like me kāna i hoʻokō ai i ka 3000 (1) ma mua.
ʻO kāna mau kākoʻo - i waena o lākou nā pollucrats maikaʻi loa ma ʻAmelika - ke kāhea nei i kā lākou makemake. Akā ʻo kēia hoʻomāinoino hope loa ʻo ia hoʻi ka Pelekikena Bush i hoʻemi ʻia i kāna mau mea pono. ʻAʻole ʻo ka luku ʻana he hua pōʻino o kona manaʻo. ʻO ka luku ka manaʻo. ʻO ka neoconservatism ka mana i hōʻike ʻia ma ka hōʻike ʻana e hiki iā ʻoe ke hōʻemi i kekahi ʻāpana o ka honua i ka ʻōpala.
Inā ua lohi loa ka pale ʻana i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau, pono i ka hui Bush ke lawe i ka hewa. ʻO kāna hana ʻino ʻana i ka Middle Climate - ʻo ka interlude o nā mahana maikaʻi i hiki ai i ka moʻomeheu kanaka ke ulu - hana i ka pepehi kanaka nui āna i hana ai ma Iraq wale nō ka lua o kāna mau hewa i ke kanaka. Ua hoʻoili ʻo Bush i kāna kaua ma ka ʻepekema me ka manaʻo paʻa like ʻole āna i hoʻouka ai i kāna kaua me ka weliweli.
Ua lohi paha? ʻO ka ʻōlelo ʻana pēlā ʻo ia ka hana ʻoiaʻiʻo. No ka ʻōlelo ʻana ʻaʻohe mea hiki ke hana i kēia manawa, ʻo ia ka hōʻoia ʻana ʻaʻohe mea i hana ʻia. Akā ʻo ka mea manaʻo maikaʻi e like me aʻu e ʻike i ka manaʻolana ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī e kiʻi. He hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo hou o ka ʻepekema i paʻi ʻia mai ka makahiki i hala aku nei ka hōʻike Intergovernmental Panel - kokoke i hoʻokahi haneli ma mua o ka papa manawa - ua hoʻomaka paha nā kaʻina hana koʻikoʻi (2).
Hoʻokahi makahiki i hala aku nei, ua ʻōlelo ʻo Intergovernmental Panel e nalo loa ka "hau kai hope o ke kauwela ma ka hopena o ke kenekulia 21 ... ma kekahi mau hiʻohiʻona." (3) Akā, e like me ka hōʻike hou a ka Public Interest Research. Hōʻike ʻo Center (PIRC), ke wānana nei nā ʻepekema ʻepekema i ka hopena o ka hau kai hope o ke kauwela i loko o ʻekolu a ʻehiku mau makahiki. ʻO ke alahele o ka hoʻoheheʻe ʻana i kēia manawa ma nā pakuhi e like me ka meteorite e hāʻule ana i ka honua.
Poina i nā bea polar: pili kēia iā mākou a pau. I ka nalo ʻana o ka hau, ʻeleʻele ka ʻāina, ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻoi aku ka wela. Ua hōʻike ʻia kahi pepa hou i paʻi ʻia ma Geophysical Research Letters, ʻo ka hoʻomehana ʻana ma muli o ka nalo ʻana o ka hau kai komo i loko o 1500km i uka, e uhi ana i ka ʻāina holoʻokoʻa o ka permafrost mau (4). Loaʻa i ka Arctic permafrost ʻelua ka nui o ke kalapona ma mua o ka lewa honua holoʻokoʻa (5). Mālama ʻia ia no ka lōʻihi o ka maloʻo ʻana o ka lepo. Akā ua hoʻomaka ka heheʻe. I kēia manawa, hoʻokuʻu ʻia ka methane mai kekahi mau wahi me ka ikaika e mālama ai i ka wai ma nā loko Arctic, i ka hoʻoilo (6).
ʻAʻole i hoʻokomo ʻia nā hopena o ka hoʻoheheʻe ʻana i ka permafrost i kekahi ʻano hoʻohālike honua. ʻO ka hoʻomehana ʻana i ka Arctic wale nō e hiki ke hoʻohuli i ka honua holoʻokoʻa i kahi kūlana climatic hou. Hiki i ka Middle Climate ke hāʻule wikiwiki a ʻoi aku ka wikiwiki ma mua o nā wānana grimmest i manaʻo ʻia.
ʻO ka haʻiʻōlelo a Barack Obama i ka ʻĀpana ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i ka pule i hala he mea hoʻomohala kupanaha (7). Hōʻike ia, ma kēia ʻano liʻiliʻi, aia maoli ka manaʻo o ka hoʻololi politika hohonu ma ʻAmelika. Akā ʻoiai ʻo ia i wehewehe i kahi hoʻolālā kūpono no ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ka pilikia i ʻike ʻia e ka Earth Summit o 1992, ʻo nā hana āna i manaʻo ai ua hala ʻole i kēia manawa. Ua neʻe ka ʻepekema. ʻO nā hanana i manaʻo ʻia e pale ʻia e ka Earth Summit a me ke kaʻina hana Kyoto ke hoʻomaka nei. Mahalo i nā hana hoʻopōʻino a Bush ke kaikuaʻana, ʻo Clinton (a me Gore) a me Bush nā polokalamu ʻōpio, kūpaʻa, naʻauao o ke ʻano a Obama i manaʻo ai ʻaʻole pili i kēia manawa. E like me ka hōʻike ʻana o ka PIRC, ʻo nā makahiki o ka sabotage a me ka hoʻopaneʻe i waiho iā mākou me hoʻokahi wale nō pana i koe: kahi papahana hoʻopololei o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka ikehu.
Ua hōʻike ʻia kahi pepa a ka Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research inā e hāʻawi mākou iā mākou iho i kahi manawa kūpono (8,9) o ka pale ʻana i ʻoi aku ma mua o ʻelua degere o ka hoʻomehana ʻana, pono e piʻi ka honua mai ka ikehu ma 2015 a emi iho ma waena o ʻeono a ʻewalu pākēneka i kēlā me kēia makahiki mai 2020 a 2040, e alakaʻi ana i ka decarbonization piha o ka hoʻokele waiwai honua ma hope koke o 2050(10). E hana wale ana kēia polokalamu inā paʻa kekahi mau manaʻo manaʻo e pili ana i ka pane o ka biosphere. ʻO ka hāʻawi ʻana i kahi kūlana kiʻekiʻe o ka pale ʻana i ʻelua degere o ka hoʻomehana ʻana, ʻo ia ke ʻano o ka ʻoki ʻana i nā hoʻokuʻu honua ma o 8% o ka makahiki.
Hiki paha kēia? Ua ʻae ʻia kēia? Hōʻike ka pepa Tyndall i ka hoʻemi ʻana o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i kēlā me kēia makahiki ma mua o hoʻokahi pākēneka ua "pili wale ʻia me ka hoʻokele waiwai a i ʻole ka haunaele." I ka wā i hāʻule ai ka Soviet Union, hāʻule lākou ma kahi o 5% i ka makahiki. Akā hiki iā ʻoe ke pane i kēia mau nīnau ma ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i nā koho. ʻO ke alahele a Barack Obama lāua ʻo Gordon Brown i manaʻo ai - he 80% ʻoki ʻia e 2050 - ʻo ia hoʻi ka hōʻemi ʻana i nā hoʻokuʻu ma ka awelika o 2% o ka makahiki. ʻO kēia papahana, nā kiʻi i loko o ka pepa Tyndall e manaʻo nei, e hāʻawi paha i ka honua i ʻehā a ʻelima paha degere o ka hoʻomehana ʻana (11), ʻo ia hoʻi ka hāʻule ʻana o ka nohona kanaka ma ka hapa nui o ka honua. Ua ʻae ʻia kēia?
ʻO nā kumukūʻai o ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka ikehu a me ka hoʻolālā mālama ʻana he hōkū, ʻaʻole hiki ke wikiwiki. Akā, ua kau mua nā aupuni o nā lāhui waiwai i kahi hoʻolālā e like me kēia no kekahi kumu ʻē aʻe. Ua hōʻike ʻia kahi noiʻi a ka pūnaewele hoʻolaha CNBC ua hoʻolilo ke aupuni federal US i $4.2 trillion no ka pane ʻana i ka pilikia kālā, ʻoi aku ka nui ma mua o ka nui o ka hoʻolilo ʻana i ke Kaua Honua ʻElua i ka wā i hoʻoponopono ʻia ai no ka hoʻonui kālā (12). Makemake mākou e hoʻomanaʻo ʻia ʻo ia ka hanauna i hoʻopakele i nā panakō a hoʻokuʻu i ka biosphere e hāʻule?
Hoʻopiʻi ʻia kēia ala e ka mea noʻonoʻo ʻAmelika ʻo Sharon Astyk. Ma kahi ʻatikala hou hoihoi, hōʻike ʻo ia ʻo ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka ʻenehana ikehu o ka honua e pili ana i "ka hoʻouka mua ʻana o nā wahie mōʻalihaku", i koi ʻia no ka hana ʻana i nā turbine makani, nā kaʻa uila, nā pili pūnaewele hou, insulation a me nā mea ʻē aʻe (13) . Hiki i kēia ke hoʻokuke iā mākou ma mua o ke kihi o ke aniau. Akā, manaʻo ʻo ia, pono mākou e noi i nā poʻe "e hana pōkole, nā mōhai radical", e ʻoki ana i kā mākou ikehu e 50%, me ke kōkua ʻenehana liʻiliʻi, i loko o ʻelima mau makahiki. ʻElua mau pilikia: ʻo ka mea mua, ʻo nā hoʻāʻo mua a pau e hōʻike ana ʻaʻole pono ka hilinaʻi ʻana i ka haʻalele manawaleʻa. ʻO ka lua, ʻo ka ʻoki ʻana i ka ikehu he 10% ʻoiai ʻaʻole i hoʻololi ʻia ka ʻoihana, ʻo ia ka 10% o ka ʻoki makahiki i ka nui o ka hoʻohana ʻana: kahi kaumaha hohonu ma mua o ka honua hou i ʻike ʻia. ʻAʻohe ʻōnaehana politika - ʻoiai he mōʻī kūʻokoʻa - hiki ke ola i ka hāʻule ʻana o ka hoʻokele waiwai ma kēia ʻano.
Ua pololei ʻo ia e pili ana i nā pilikia o kahi kuʻikahi ʻōmaʻomaʻo hou, akā he mau pilikia kēia e pono ai mākou e lawe. ʻO nā manaʻo a Astyk e hele lōʻihi i ke aupuni o ka manaʻo manaʻo. ʻO ka hopena ʻenehana aʻu i makemake ai e noho i nā palena mamao o ka hiki.
Hiki iā mākou ke hana? Huli ia'u. I ka nānā ʻana i nā hōʻike hou, pono wau e ʻae ua haʻalele paha mākou. Akā aia kekahi nīnau e hiki iaʻu ke pane maʻalahi. Hiki iā mākou ke hoʻāʻo ʻole? ʻAʻole hiki iā mākou.
E hoʻomaopopo ':
1. Suzanne Goldenberg, 20th Nowemapa 2008. Peresidena no 60 mau lā hou, ʻo Bush e haehae ana i ka pale no ka wao nahele o ʻAmelika. Ke Kiai.
2. Ke Keʻena Noiʻi Pono Lehulehu, 25 Nowemapa 2008. Palekana i ke aniau. www.pirc.info
3. Pane waena o ke Aupuni no ka Ho'ololi 'Ea, Hui Hana I. Hō'ulu'ulu Mana'o, p73. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-ts.pdf
4. ʻO David M. Lawrence et al., 2008. Hoʻokē ʻia ka hoʻomehana ʻana o ka ʻāina Arctic a me ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻana o ka permafrost i ka wā o ka nalowale ʻana o ka hau kai. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, 11506.doi:10.1029/2008GL033985.
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/dlawren/publications/lawrence.grl.submit.2008.pdf
5. Edward AG Schuur et al, Sepatemaba 2008. Pilikia o ke kalapona permafrost i ka hoololi aniau: ka hopena no ke kaapuni kalapona honua. Bioscience, Vol. 58, Helu 8, aoao 701-714. doi:10.1641/B580807
http://www.bioone.org/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1641%2FB580807
6. United Nations Environment Project, 4 June 2007. Hehe ka hau – he kumuhana wela? Hoʻokuʻu Paʻi. http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=512&ArticleID=5599&l=en
7. http://www.congresscheck.com/2008/11/18/obama-promises-return-to-global-climate-change-negotiations/
8. Kevin Anderson lāua ʻo Alice Bows, 2008. Hoʻoponopono hou i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau ma muli o nā ʻano hoʻokuʻu ma hope o 2000. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. Published online. doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0138
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/journal_papers/fulltext.pdf
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Anderson lāua ʻo Bows "ʻO ka hoʻonohonoho ʻana i ke kulekele hoʻololi i ke aniau e hoʻomaopopo maʻamau ʻia e ka paepae 2 degere C; akā naʻe, ʻo ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana ma 450 ppmv CO2e [mau ʻāpana o ke kalapona kalapona like] hāʻawi wale i 46 pākēneka o ka manawa ʻaʻole i ʻoi aku ma mua o 2 degere C." Hāʻawi ʻia kēia kuhi ma ka pepa aʻe:
9. Malte Meinshausen, 2006. He aha ka manaʻo o ka 2°C Target no nā Kūleʻa Gas Greenhouse? ʻO kahi ʻikepili pōkole e pili ana i nā ala hoʻoheheʻe ʻana i nā kinoea he nui a me kekahi mau manaʻo ʻike maopopo ʻole i ke aniau. Ma Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Ed in Chief). Ke pale nei i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau. ʻO ka Hale Paʻi o ke Kulanui ʻo Cambridge.
10. ʻO kēia no ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana ma 450 ppmv CO2e - ʻoi aku ma mua o ka pae a James Hansen a me nā ʻepekema ʻē aʻe e kāhea nei.
11. Hoʻomaopopo ʻo Anderson lāua ʻo Bows i ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i ka ʻike o ka lewa a hiki i 650 ppmv CO2e e koi i ka piʻi ʻana o ka honua i ka 2020, a ukali ʻia e nā ʻoki honua o 3-4% o ka makahiki. ʻO ke ʻano kēia, pono nā lāhui OECD e hōʻoki i nā hoʻokuʻu ʻana ma mua o kēia e pale aku i ka piʻi ʻana mai o ka piʻi ʻana ma luna o 650. Manaʻo ʻo Meinshausen e hāʻawi ka stabilization ma 650ppmv CO2e i 40% o ka nui o ka 4 degere C.
12. CNBC.com, 17th Nowemapa 2008. ʻO ka pā pilikia kālā i loaʻa i nā trillions.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21263.htm
13. Sharon Astyk, 11th Nowemapa 2008. He Kuʻikahi Hou a i ʻole he wāwae kaua? Noʻonoʻo ma o kā mākou pane i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau. http://sharonastyk.com/2008/11/11/a-new-deal-or-a-war-footing-thinking-through-our-response-to-climate-change/
Paʻi ʻia ma ka Guardian 25th Nowemapa 2008