Inā like ʻoe me nā poʻe ʻehaʻeha aʻu i ʻike ai, ʻo ka manaʻolana o ke aupuni hoʻokele waiwai o ʻAmelika e hina ana, e kuʻi, a me ka hāʻule ʻana paha.
No laila e hauʻoli, me he mea lā ua puka mai ke kau hoʻomaka. Ua aʻo mua ke kia'āina Federal Reserve ʻo Paul Volcker ma mua o kēia makahiki he '75% ka manawa o kahi pilikia kālā e hōʻeha ana i ka US i nā makahiki ʻelima e hiki mai ana, inā ʻaʻole ia e hoʻololi i kāna mau kulekele.'
E like me kā Volcker i haʻi aku ai i ka Financial Times i hoʻokahi mahina i hala, 'Manaʻo wau ʻo ka pilikia i kēia manawa ʻaʻohe manaʻo pilikia. ʻOiaʻiʻo, hiki iā ʻoe ke kamaʻilio e pili ana i ka deficit kālā ma ʻAmelika inā manaʻo ʻoe he pilikia - a manaʻo wau he pilikia nui - akā ʻaʻohe manaʻo pilikia, no laila ʻaʻohe mea makemake e hoʻolohe.'
Ua loli wale paha kēlā. ʻO ka mea pani o Volcker, ʻo Alan Greenspan, ua hoʻoweliweli i nā mākeke kālā i kahi hopu liʻiliʻi i ka pule i hala ma ka ʻae ʻana, 'Me he mea lā e hoʻohuli ʻia, no ka nui o ka deficit moʻohelu kālā o ʻAmelika, pono e hoʻemi ʻia ka makemake no ka hoʻohui ʻana i nā koena kālā i kekahi manawa. '
Ua wānana ʻo Robert Reich, ke kākau ʻōlelo mua o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i Kepakemapa: 'ʻO ka manaʻo nui e piʻi nui ana ka deficit kālā. I ka manawa like, ʻo ka manaʻo koʻikoʻi ʻaʻohe kumu e manaʻoʻiʻo ai e emi ana ka deficit kālepa i kekahi manawa koke. ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻike wau i ka emi ʻana o ke kālā a ʻike wau i kekahi manawa i kahi kikoʻī '¦ no ka mea i kekahi manawa lilo ia i mea hoʻopukapuka lousy.'
I hoʻokahi pule ma hope o ke koho balota, ua hoʻopiʻi ke kākau ʻōlelo mua o ka Waihona ʻo Robert Rubin iā Bush no ka 'pāʻani me ke ahi' no ka ʻae ʻana i ke kālā e nāwaliwali me ka hoʻomau ʻana i ka hoʻolimalima kālā federal, kahi hui e hoʻoulu ai i nā 'pilikia koʻikoʻi i kā mākou mau mākeke kālā.'
Hoʻohui ʻia ʻo C. Fred Bergsten, ka luna hoʻomalu o ka Institute for International Economics ma Wakinekona (he leo o ka orthodoxy maʻemaʻe), 'Ua ʻike nā poʻe a pau ma ka mākeke e iho nui ke kālā. Ke hoʻomaka nei nā kānaka e holo no nā puka.'
ʻO ka holo ʻana no ka puka ʻana he mea kūʻai nui loa ia no Kina, no ka laʻana, me ka luna o ka Waihona mua ʻo Nouriel Roubini e haʻi ana iā Reuters ma kahi o 8% o kāna GDP - a i ʻole he hapalua trillion $ US - e nalowale inā ʻae ʻia ke kālā Kina. ʻike i kona waiwai maoli, a ua hāʻule ke kālā i kahi 20%.
ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole kēia e pili ana i ka nānā wale ʻana i ke kumukūʻai o ke kumukūʻai o ke kālā e kūʻē i nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe, e luʻu a luʻu a hoʻoikaika no nā kumu pōkole pōkole. Pono ka nānā ʻana i ka hohonu hohonu.
ʻO Yale-based anarchist David Graeber half-jokingly manaʻo 'he systematic mahele o ka hana i ka Marxists hoʻohewa i ka hoʻokele waiwai kālai'āina, akā noho ma waho o ka hoʻonohonoho 'ana, a anarchists lawelawe i ka la-i-lā hoʻonohonoho 'ana, akā, e kali i Marxists ma na ninau o abstract theory. ; ʻo ia hoʻi, kahi e wehewehe ai ka poʻe Marxist i ke kumu o ka hāʻule ʻana o ka hoʻokele waiwai ma Argentina a me ka poʻe anarchist e hana i nā mea e hana ai.'
A laila, he aha ka ʻōlelo a nā Marxists a me nā mea hoʻokele kūʻē ʻē aʻe, he aha nā pilikia kālā mega-Argentine e kū mai ana?
No ka hoʻomaka ʻana me nā diagnoses o ke kūlana, ʻehā mau kula koʻikoʻi o ka noʻonoʻo pono e haʻi ʻia no ka mea he ʻano ʻokoʻa ko lākou - a hoʻokūkū pinepine - nā manaʻo e pili ana i ka pilikia o ka US a me ka kapitalisme honua:
1) ʻO nā hui hoʻokūkū nui loa, e hoʻohaʻahaʻa i ka uku o ka loaʻa kālā; 2) ʻO ka hilinaʻi nui i loko o nā mākeke kālā, i kēia lā e like me ka casino ma mua o ka ʻenehana mālama kālā; 3) ʻO ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā mea kūʻai aku, ma ke ʻano he noʻonoʻo mau ʻana o ka lawa ʻole o ka mana kūʻai kūʻai; a 4) ʻO ka hoʻonui nui ʻana o ke kālā kālā ma ke ʻano maʻamau, he pilikia ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻoneʻe ʻia no ka manawa pau ʻole, akā ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hoʻemi ʻana i ke kumukūʻai.
Ma ka hihia mua, ʻo ka laʻana maikaʻi loa ʻo ka puke moʻolelo UCLA ʻo Robert Brenner i ka makahiki 2003 * The Boom and the Bubble * a me ka nānā ʻana ma hope o New Left Review, London Review of Books, Against the Current, a me nā puke pai ʻē aʻe.
I ka lua, ua hoʻopaʻapaʻa ka poʻe hahai o ka mea hoʻokele waiwai kālā o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ʻo Hyman Minsky - e like me David Felix o ke Kulanui o Wakinekona a me Steve Keen o ke Kulanui o Western Sydney - ke hoʻopaʻapaʻa nei nā mākeke kālā inexorably neʻe mai ka hoʻokipa ʻana i ka capitalism, i ka hoʻokipa ʻana i nā hoʻopukapuka speculative, e lilo i mea piliwaiwai maʻemaʻe. i ka ʻuhane o ka 'Ponzi'-style inverted pyramid schemes.
ʻO ke kolu o ka ʻāpana e pili ana i ka hoʻoilina o John Maynard Keynes, nona nā hoʻonā i ka 'underconsumption' maʻamau e pili ana i ka hōʻaiʻē ʻole a me nā haʻawina aupuni lokomaikaʻi, i mea e hoʻonui ai i ka mana kūʻai. Ua hoʻololi hou ka nui o nā mea hoʻokele waiwai i ka US i kēia laina o ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa, no ka mea ʻoi aku ka palekana o ka politika ma mua o ke kāhea ʻana i ke kipi anti-capitalist. (Reagan, Bush Sr a me Bush Jr hiki ke wehewehe ʻia he 'koa Keynesians' mahalo i kā lākou hapa kālā nui a me ka Pentagon-hedonism.)
Ma ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻana i ka hihia ʻehā, ua hōʻano hou ka poʻe Marxists kahiko e like me Ellen Meikskins Wood i kāna puke * Empire of Capital * (2003) a me David Harvey ma * The New Imperialism * (2004) i nā moʻolelo koʻikoʻi o ka overaccumulation e Simon Clarke (*Keynesianism, Monetarism. a me ka Crisis of the State *, 1988), Harvey ma * The Condition of Postmodernity * (1989), Harry Shutt (* The Trouble with Capitalism *, 1999) a me Robert Biel (* The New Imperialism *, 2000).
Ke kū'ē nei i kēia kahi kūlana Marxist e mahalo ana i ka ikaika, ka waiwai a me ka hiki ke ho'ōla iā ia iho i loko o ka kapitalism - a e noʻonoʻo pono ana i ka nāwaliwali o ka ʻenemi nui o ka ʻōnaehana: ka papa hana. ʻO ka poʻe e hoʻopaʻapaʻa ana ʻaʻole * e kū nei ka ʻōnaehana i kahi pilikia overaccumulation systemic, ʻo Leo Panitch, Sam Gindin lāua ʻo Chris Rude i ka * Socialist Register 2005: The Empire Reloaded *, Doug Henwood i * Ma hope o ka New Economy * (2003) a me Giovanni ʻO Arrighi (ka hoʻohewa ʻana iā Brenner) ma *New Left Review* i ka makahiki i hala.
Ke koʻikoʻi nei kekahi o kēia mau moʻolelo hope i ke kula ʻelima o ke kumumanaʻo Marxist: hakakā papa ma ke ʻano he mea hoʻoholo. A he ʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻo ka papa hana o ka honua a kokoke i nā hakakā ʻāina counterhegemonic a pau i loaʻa i ka hoʻomau, hoʻonāwaliwali i nā pio i nā makahiki he ʻekolu i hala iho nei, e kōkua maoli ana i ka wehewehe ʻana i ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana o ke kapikala mai nā pilikia 1970s.
Ke hoʻomau nei naʻe nā kūʻē kūloko. Ua hoʻokumu ka honua i ka stagnation waiwai, ʻaʻole ka dinamism. Wahi a ka World Bank, ua hāʻule ka piʻi ʻana o ka GDP makahiki o ka honua i kēlā me kēia kanaka mai 3.6% i ka makahiki 1960, i ka 2.1% i ka makahiki 1970, i ka 1.3% i ka makahiki 1980 a i ka 1.1% i ka makahiki 1990 a me 1% i nā makahiki 2000. .
Eia kekahi, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o nā ana GDP no ka pono o ka nohona, ʻoiai ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hōʻino ʻana i ke kaiapuni mai nā makahiki 1970. Pono mākou e hoʻopili i ke ʻano like ʻole o ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa, me kekahi mau pūnaewele - e like me ʻEulopa Hikina a me ʻApelika - e hōʻeha wikiwiki ana i ka GDP per capita no ka hapa nui o ka manawa honua.
A i ʻole e noʻonoʻo i kahi hōʻailona maʻamau o ka pilikia kapitalist: ka helu o ka loaʻa kālā. I ka nānā mua ʻana, ʻike ʻia ka nui o ka loaʻa kālā ma hope o ka ʻauhau ʻAmelika - i hāʻule nui ʻia mai ka waena o 1960s - e hoʻomaka ana i ka makahiki 1984, kokoke i nā kiʻekiʻe ma hope o ke kaua (ʻoiai e ʻōlelo ʻia he haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa ka ʻauhau ma ka manawa i hala iho nei).
Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ua mau ka uku ukupanee ʻoihana ma nā pae kiʻekiʻe i ka makahiki 1980-90. ʻO ka unuhi ʻana i nā hoʻolimalima ukupanee, loaʻa iā mākou ka manaʻo maikaʻi aʻe o ka loaʻa kālā i loaʻa i ka ʻoihana no ka hoʻopukapuka kālā a me ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana, ʻo ia hoʻi i noho haʻahaʻa loa mai ka makahiki 1980-i kēia manawa, ma mua o nā wā ma mua, e like me ka French Marxists Gérard Duménil a me Dominique Lévy (http://www. ://www.cepremap.ens.fr).
Hoʻopau pū ʻo Duménil lāua ʻo Lévy i nā ala i pane aku ai nā hui US i ka emi ʻana o ka hōʻiliʻili ʻoihana. ʻO ka loaʻa kālā ke kuleana no ka hapalua o ka huina kālā (ma mua o ka ʻauhau) i ka wā o ka makahiki ʻehā ma hope o ke kaua 'Golden Age', akā hāʻule i lalo o 20% i nā makahiki 2000.
I ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana, ua piʻi ka loaʻa kālā mai ka 10-20% i ka makahiki 1950-60, a ma luna o 30% ma 2000. Ua pāpālua nā mea kālā i kā lākou waihona waiwai e pili ana i nā hoa pili kālā ʻole i ka makahiki 1980-90.
Heaha la ke ano o keia ano?
Wahi a Harvey, ua 'hoʻoneʻeʻia nā kū'ē'ē o ka capitalism ma mua o ka hoʻoholoʻana: ua hoʻoneʻeʻia lākou i ka manawa a me ka manawa, ma o nā mākeke kālā hyperactive. Manaʻo ʻia ka manawa i loko o ka puʻupuʻu hōʻaiʻē nui, kahi e hiki ai iā ʻoe ke uku i kēia manawa, ma ke kumu o ka aie, a me ka manaʻolana e loaʻa nā kālā e hiki mai ana e uhi i kāu uku hōʻaiʻē.
A ʻo ka hoʻohana ʻana o ka capitalism i ka 'space' - ka hoʻoneʻe ʻana i ka pilikia o ka honua - ʻo ia ka mea e pili ana i ka honua: e ʻae ana i nā hui e kū nei i ka hāʻule ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā e ʻimi i ka hoʻomaha ma nā wahi i ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka waiwai a me ka hana, kahi e liʻiliʻi ai nā lula, a kahi e hiki ai i nā mākeke hou no nā huahana. puka mai. No laila, piʻi aʻe ka loaʻa kālā o nā hui mai nā hana honua mai kahi ākea o 4 a 8% i ka wā 1950s-60s a ma luna o 20% e 2000.
ʻO kaʻoiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole i hoʻopaʻa wale ʻia kekahi o nā pilikia i kū ʻia e ka kapitalisme. Ua loaʻa kekahi mau mea hoʻomāinoino - hoʻemi waiwai - ma nā wahi like ʻole i nā makahiki he 30 i hala.
ʻO kēia ka pilikia o ka ʻaiʻē o ka honua ʻekolu (i ka makahiki 1980 mua no nā mea hāʻawi kālā, akā ke hoʻomau nei no ka hapa nui o nā mokuʻāina a me nā hui o ka honua); nā haʻalulu kālā (mid 1980s); nā pōʻino o nā mākeke honua (1987) a me ka waiwai (1991-93); nā pilikia ma kahi kokoke i nā ʻāina mākeke nui e puka mai ana (1995-2002); a me nā panakalupa nui o kēlā me kēia kanaka i loaʻa nā nalu ikaika o ka honua.
ʻO nā hiʻohiʻona o ka makahiki 1990s o nā piliwaiwai pili kālā i lilo i mea ʻawaʻawa loa i nā derivatives, nā kūlana mākeke kūʻai exotic, kālepa kālā, a me nā bet maikaʻi ʻole i nā wā kūʻai aku a me nā uku ukupanee e pili ana i ka Long-Term Capital Management ($3.5 biliona) (1998), Sumitomo/London. Metal Exchange (,1.6 billion)(1996), IGMetallgessellschaft ($2.2 billion)(1994), Kashima Oil ($1.57 billion)(1994), Orange County, Kaleponi ($1.5 billion)(1994), Barings Bank (,900 miliona)( 1995), ke aupuni Belgian ($1 biliona) (1997), a me Union Bank of Switzerland ($690 miliona) (1998).
Mai ka makahiki 2000, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā hana panakalupa o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma kahi ʻoi aku ka nui - e laʻa, Enron, Anderson Accounting, World Com, Tyco - ʻoi aku ka nui o ka pili ʻana i ka palaho, akā he mau hōʻailona hoʻi ia o ka pāʻani kālā ma nā mākeke ʻoi loa.
ʻO ka mea nui loa, ʻo ka US stock market kahi kahua o ka 'New Economy' bubble nui a hiki i ka makahiki 2000, e hoʻopau ana paha i ka hāʻule ʻana o Dot Com nāna i holoi i $8.5 trillion o ka waiwai pepa mai nā puke mai kahi kiʻekiʻe a hiki i ke ala (ma US wale nō) - akā. ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, me he mea lā e hoʻonui hou ana i ka makahiki 2003-04 mahalo i ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana mai o nā mea hoʻopukapuka hale a me nā kahe o ka waihona kālā, a e piʻi hou aʻe paha i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana inā hoʻomaka ʻo Bush i ka hoʻokumu pilikino pilikino.
ʻAʻole ma New York wale nō ka hāʻule ʻana, akā he 1/3 hoʻi i ka makahiki 2002 ma Finland, Kelemānia, Helene, ʻIlelani, Netherlands, a me Suedena, a me nā hāʻule liʻiliʻi ʻē aʻe i ka hapa nui o nā mākeke waiwai.
Hāʻawi ʻo David Harvey i kahi manaʻo hou e wehewehe i ka pane ʻana o ka ʻōnaehana i ka overaccumulation a me ka overhang kālā. Hoʻoulu ʻia e Rosa Luxemburg's ruminations i hoʻokahi haneli i hala ma luna o ka pilina ma waena o ka kapitalisme a me nā ʻano ʻoihana non-kapitalista o ke ola, wehewehe ʻo ia i nā ʻōnaehana hou o ka 'accumulation by dispossession', ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻo ka hao wale ʻana i nā mea maʻamau a me ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka mana extra-economic. loaa ka waiwai.
ʻO nā ʻōnaehana o ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i kēia lā ke hoʻouka nei i ke ʻano o ka 'reproduction', kahi i hana ʻia ai ka hoʻohana ʻana ma o nā pilina mana kāne like ʻole. Hōʻike kēia i ka 'reprivatization' o ke ola, e like me ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻana o nā ʻepekema politika o ke Kulanui o York ʻo Isabella Bakker lāua ʻo Stephen Gill i kā lākou puke 2003 *Power, Production and Social Reproduction*.
ʻO kēia mau manaʻo e ʻae iā Marxists e wehewehe i ke kumu ʻaʻole e hoʻopuka ʻokoʻa ka 'pilikia kapitalista' i nā ʻano o ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana o ka ʻōnaehana uku a me ka nui o nā pilikia hana ʻole i ʻike ʻia i ka wā o ka conjuncture mua o ka overaccumulation, ka Depression Nui.
Wahi a ka loiloi akahele a ke Kulanui o York ʻo Greg Albo i ka makahiki i hala ma ka *Socialist Register 2004: The New Imperial Challenge*, 'ʻO ka emi ʻana o ka hoʻokele waiwai a me ka neoliberalism i alakaʻi i kahi kālā nui o ka hoʻokele waiwai mai nā makahiki 1970 a ma luna.' I kēia lā, 'ʻO ka deflation o ka puʻupuʻu waiwai e hoʻohui i kahi ʻano ʻē aʻe ma waena o ka US a me nā ʻāpana ʻē aʻe e paʻakikī i kekahi ala o ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ka mākeke honua.'
ʻO ia wale nō kaʻu wahi e loaʻa ai i kēia ʻāpana: kekahi mau huaʻōlelo teaser, kahi puʻupuʻu o Marxist theory, a me nā hōʻike mua. Ma ke kolamu aʻe, e wehe au i nā ʻikepili e hōʻike ana i kahi pōʻai hou o ka nāwaliwali o ka hoʻokele waiwai, ʻaʻole hoʻi e haʻi ʻia i ka 'pilikia koʻikoʻi ma waena o ka US a me nā wahi ʻē aʻe'. A aia kekahi mau haʻawina kālaiʻāina hohonu e aʻo ai, inā ʻaʻole mākou e lawe ʻia no ka holo ʻana ma luna o ka roller-coaster i kēia manawa, e like me mākou i ka hopena o nā makahiki 1990.
(Patrick – [pale ʻia ka leka uila] - aʻo i ka hoʻokele waiwai politika ma ke Kulanui o KwaZulu-Natal a alakaʻi i ka Center for Civil Society - http://www.ukzn.ac.za/ccs)