Source: Counterpunch
Tawayen karewa (“XR”) ya faɗo duniya kamar walƙiyar haske tare da mahalarta fiye da 70 ƙasashe a cikin shekara guda. Abin sha'awa shine kawai "fadin gaskiya" game da rikicin yanayi… don canji. Numfashin iska mai dadi a cikin duniyar da ke cike da yaudara da karya ta mutanen da ke kan madafun iko.
Kwanan nan, Roger Hallam, wani manomin kwayoyin halitta kuma masanin Kwalejin King kuma wanda ya kafa XR ya yi magana a wani taron mutanen gida a Penzance, Cornwall.
Abin da ke biyowa shi ne taƙaitaccen fassarar waccan magana:
Ɗaya daga cikin manyan ƙarya/rashin fahimta game da sauyin yanayi shine: "Yana da rikitarwa." Ma'ana, masana kimiyya da kwararrun jami'ai ne kawai za su iya magance shi saboda talakawa ba za su iya fahimtar hadaddun abubuwa ba. Alhali, gaskiyar lamarin ita ce: Ba haka ba ne mai rikitarwa. Hallam ya bayyana wasu masu sauƙi, abin da yake magana da su a matsayin gaskiyar kisa:
Babu shakka cewa Arctic yana narkewa. “Ya yi zafi sosai; kankara ne; yana narkewa. Ba kwa buƙatar digiri a kimiyya don gano wannan.”
Babu shakka, tsananin raguwa yana da ban tsoro. Kashi saba'in da biyar (75%) na yawan adadin kankara na Arctic ya narke a cikin shekaru 30 da suka gabata. Tsaya ka yi tunani game da hakan na ɗan lokaci… bayan dubban shekaru na ƙanƙara mai kauri mai launi iri-iri, kusan komai ya ƙare a cikin gajerun shekaru 30 kacal. Wannan ya wuce iyakar halayen dabi'a; yana da bala'i ta hanyoyi da yawa. Bayan haka, ba 10% ba ne ba 30% ba; kashi 75% ne, wanda a ƙarshe zai haifar da sauye-sauyen yanayi ga daukacin Arewacin Hemisphere. A gaskiya ma, ya riga ya fara.
Hallam ya ambaci wani farfesa na Harvard wanda kwanan nan ya yi iƙirarin cewa ba za a sami dusar ƙanƙara ta dindindin ba a cikin Artic a lokacin bazara na 2022. Farfesan ya ce tabbas. "A bayyane yake cewa dusar ƙanƙara tana kan kankara zuwa sifili a cikin shekaru 1-5 masu zuwa… zai kasance yana faruwa. Kuma, doka ce mai sauƙi ta kimiyya da ta ce da zarar ka cire ƙanƙara daga ruwan duhu, za ka sami tasirin zafi mai ɓoye, wanda ke nufin yanayin zafi yana ƙaruwa sosai kuma ba zato ba tsammani."
Dukkanin waxannan suna tarwatsa magudanan ruwan jet na sama yayin da yanayin zafi ya ragu a tsakanin Arctic da tropics, don haka yana rage rafukan jet, kuma yana haifar da shingen yanayi wanda ke tsoratar da manoma waɗanda suka dogara da yanayin zagayowar yanayi, shekara-shekara, shekara. A zamanin yau, abin da ba a iya faɗi ba ne, misali, 2019 babban ambaliya na ƙasar noma, wanda ba a taɓa ganin irinsa ba.
“Da zarar icen ya tafi, zai zama hargitsi. A cikin shekaru goma masu zuwa, wannan shine abin da ke faruwa a hanya." (Hallamu)
Hallam ya yi iƙirarin cewa Arctic ba lamari ne mai rikitarwa ba. Kankara tana tafiya kuma duk Arewacin Duniya yana canzawa ta hanyoyin da ba wanda ya sani saboda ba mu taɓa zuwa can ba. Gwaji ne wanda ba a yi niyya ba wanda ya riga ya tashi daga kan layin dogo.
Ya tattauna matsalar sauyin yanayi dangane da yanayin zafi: Tun kafin masana'antu zafin jiki ya karu 1.1°Centigrade. Wasu suna ganin ya fi dan kadan, wasu kuma suna ganin ya yi kadan, amma 1.1°C yana cikin filin kwallon. Dangane da haka, yarjejeniyar sauyin yanayi ta Paris, "wanda zan ba ku shawara ita ce babban misali na babban ruɗi a tarihin ɗan adam," yana inganta ƙaryar cewa dole ne mu tsaya ƙasa da 2°Centigrade. Amma, gaskiyar kimiyya mai sauƙi shine 2 ° C an riga an kulle shi. " Sanannen abu ne a makarantar ilimi cewa an riga an kulle 2°C. Akwai dalilai da yawa da ya sa:
1. Rayuwar Carbon - Lokacin da aka sanya carbon a cikin sararin samaniya, ba ya yin zafi da ƙasa nan da nan. Yana ɗaukar shekaru 10 zuwa 30 don fassara zuwa yanayin zafi mai girma. Saboda haka, ko da iskar carbon ya tsaya gobe, akwai sauran shekaru 10-30 na carbon da ke aiki ta tsarin yanayi. Takardar bita ta ƙwararrun ƙwararrun kimiya ta kwanan nan ta yi hasashen cewa zagayowar carbon na ɓoye daidai yake da 0.7 ° C komai matakan ragewa da aka ɗauka a yau. Wannan yana nufin 1.8° an riga an kulle shi (ƙara 1.1°C zuwa 0.7°C).
2. Kuma, takardun “dimming duniya” da takwarorinsu suka yi bita sun ce amfani da man fetur na sanya gurɓataccen abu ko ɓangarorin kwayoyin halitta a cikin yanayin da a zahiri ke rage ɗumamar duniya ta hanyar nuna hasken rana zuwa sararin samaniya. Don haka, da zarar ka kawar da makamashin burbushin, kuma ka daina fitar da hayaki, hasken rana zai zo ba tare da tsangwama ba daga burbushin mai. An yi kiyasin ƙara yawan zafin duniya da 0.7°C.
Ya haɗa da duk abin da ke sama, 2.6C yana kulle-ciki ko da yake wani ɓangare na "kulle-in" shine kawar da hayaƙin carbon. Wata takarda da aka bita a kwanan baya ta ce carbon da ke cikin ƙasa zai ƙara zafi da wani digiri ɗaya a shekara ta 2050 domin da zarar ka zafafa ƙasa, sai ka zafafa ƙasa, yana fitar da ƙarin carbon, yana ɗaukar zafi sama da 3 ° C.
Duk abubuwan da aka ambata a sama sun rushe yanayin yanayi kafin a ƙidaya ayyukan ɗan adam na yanzu. Alas, hayaƙin carbon har yanzu yana ƙaruwa akan ƙimar 1.6 ppm kamar na shekaru biyu da suka gabata, sannan, 2.7 ppm sannan kuma 3ppm. Yawan ci gaban yana tafiya kai tsaye, ba ƙasa ba.
Don haka, tare da matsakaicin matsakaicin yanayin duniya wanda aka riga an kulle shi a 2 ° C, yana nufin sassan nahiyoyi na tsakiya ko tsakiyar latitudes zasu kai 4 ° C. A cewar NASA, dumamar yanayi ta bambanta amma ya fi girma a yankunan tsakiyar latitude a lokacin lokacin zafi. A 4 ° C a cikin nahiyoyi na tsakiya ba za ku iya shuka hatsi a sikelin ba. Wannan yana nufin abu ɗaya: Yunwa.
Duban batun wata hanya ɗaya: Pre-masana'antu CO2 a cikin yanayi ya kasance 280ppm a kololuwarsa a cikin shekaru 400,000 da suka gabata, amma yana girma da sauri fiye da kowane lokaci a cikin shekaru 100 da suka gabata kuma yanzu yana 415ppm. Ba da dadewa ba mutane suna cewa 350ppm shine babban iyaka ko yankin haɗari lokacin da yanayin muhalli zai fara raguwa. Amma, yanayi CO2 ya riga ya kasance a 415. Menene game da wannan babban iyaka kuma bai kamata wannan ya zama kira zuwa mataki ba? Duk da haka, babu wani kira zuwa ga aiki, babu inda za a gani ko ji. Akwai kawai magana da aka haɗa tare da token ɗab'i a cikin motocin lantarki da na'urorin hasken rana da iska. Gaskiya mai wuyar gaske shine burbushin mai shine kashi 80% na samar da makamashi shekaru 50 da suka gabata. Kashi 80% na makamashin da ake amfani da shi a yau. Ina canji?
Gabaɗaya, Hallam ya yi iƙirarin “mugun labari na gaskiya shine: Muna fuskantar rugujewar zamantakewa. Muna fuskantar ƙarshen wayewa.” Idan kuna son sanin yadda rugujewar zamantakewa ke kama, duba Somaliya. Duba Afghanistan. Rushewar zamantakewa yana kama da rikicin tattalin arziki lokacin da babu wani tallafi ga talakawa. Makarantun ba za su iya gudana ba. Za a rufe kwasa-kwasan jami'a. Babu gadaje da ake samu a asibitoci. Kayan abinci sun ƙare, mutane suna fama da yunwa kuma suna fama.
A bara a karon farko rikicin noman abinci ya afku a duk faɗin Arewacin Hemisphere, ƙasa da kashi 20% a Arewacin Amurka, Turai da Rasha, duk a cikin shekara guda! Idan haka ta faru a cikin shekaru uku, da za a yi yunwa mai yawa a Turai. Wannan bincike na farfesa mai dorewa ya dogara ne akan mafi zazzagewa (450,000) takardar ilimi a tarihi.
Shekaru goma sha biyar da suka gabata, Hallam ya shuka kadada 20 na amfanin gona. Tun daga farkon watan Yuni, ruwan sama ya ci gaba har tsawon makonni bakwai, ba tare da tsayawa ba. Ya rasa kowane kayan lambu na waje. Ya yi asarar fam 100,000 kuma mutane 20 sun rasa ayyukansu. Amma, babu wanda ya damu domin idan ba za ka iya samun abincinka a gida ba, za ka iya tashi a ciki. Kuma, a shekara mai zuwa, an yi ruwan sama kusan makonni 7. Hakan ya biyo bayan watan Afrilu mafi zafi a Burtaniya; sannan kuma mafi sanyi a watan Agusta, sannan kuma lokacin sanyi mafi sanyi a tarihi, kuma a shekarar da ta gabata ita ce bazara mafi zafi da aka yi rikodin a Wales. Canjin yanayi na gaske ne kuma ba za a iya tsinkaya ba. Don haka, manoma ba su san abin da zai faru ba kuma da yawa sun daina kasuwanci. A duk faɗin duniya, manoma suna kashe kansu a adadi mai yawa, kuma game da Amurka: “Yawan kashe kansa yana ƙaruwa, Musamman a cikin Rural America,” NBC News, Satumba 6, 2019.
Har yanzu mafi munin sakamakon rikicin yanayi, wanda shine ainihin ƙarshen ƙarshen, zai kasance yaƙi. Menene zai faru sa’ad da ɗaruruwan miliyoyin ’yan gudun hijira suke gudu daga wurare masu zafi domin zafi ba zai iya jurewa ba? Za a yi yaki. Wannan zai faru ne kafin ambaliya na manyan biranen bakin teku, wanda kuma aka "kulle" ga tsarin yanayi.
Rikicin yanayi yana da gaske. Yana da yanayin gaggawa! Zazzabi na ci gaba da saita sabbin bayanai. Sama da digiri 44 a Karachi a bara kuma mutane da yawa sun mutu sakamakon zazzaɓi, amma babu wanda ya damu saboda Karachi ne. Zafi ya kai 47°C a wasu sassan Indiya. (Zazzaɓin jiki a 42.22 ° C na iya haifar da tashin hankali da mutuwa)
Za'a iya bayyana haɗarin ta hanyar ka'idar abubuwan da ba daidai ba a cikin tsarin zamantakewa da tattalin arziki. Da farko wasu 'yan dari ne ke mutuwa sakamakon shanyewar zafin jiki, sai kuma ta dan yi sama kadan sai kuma dubu ta mutu, kadan kadan sai kuma mutum miliyan uku suka mutu a cikin 'yan kwanaki. Ba zato ba tsammani, ya faru ba zato ba tsammani!
Saboda tasirin kwan fitila, a wani lokaci jikin mutum ba zai iya tsira da zafi da zafi ba kuma ya mutu cikin sa'o'i 6. Ba na layi ba ne. Wannan ya riga ya faru a cikin daular dabbobi. Ya faru a cikin Steppes na Rasha shekaru 2-3 da suka wuce lokacin da barewa 200,000 suka mutu a cikin kwanaki 3.
Hallam ya tattauna da manyan masana tattalin arziki na siyasa a duniya, kuma duk sun yarda da bala'i na zuwa. "Idan yazo zai yi sauri." Duk sun yarda. A cikin makonni saboda komai yana da alaƙa, ma'ana, wadatar abinci da rarrabawa a duk faɗin duniya.
Hallam ya ambaci abin da yake magana a matsayin "abun tattaunawa mai wahala" yadda za a dakatar da tsarin da ba daidai ba. Ilimin zamantakewa yana ba da amsoshi. Idan kuna son canza alkiblar siyasa cikin sauri ta al'umma hakan yana faruwa ne kawai ta hanyar rashin biyayyar zamantakewa. Lokaci! Ita ce kawai hanya, kuma ita ce abin da XR ke da shi.
Al'umma na kokarin warware matsalar sauyin yanayi tsawon shekaru 30. Kaico, ba a kai ko'ina ba. A halin yanzu, tun 1990 an sami karuwar kashi 60 cikin ɗari na hayaƙin carbon. Duk ƙoƙarin, tarurruka, da tattaunawa sun kasance bala'i mai ban tsoro. Rabin iskar carbon da ake fitarwa a sararin samaniya da jinsin ɗan adam ya kasance tun lokacin da aka fitar da Gaskiyar rashin jin daɗi na Al Gore. Duk da haka, gazawar bala'i ya biyo bayansa, wanda shine farkon tunanin abin da gaske ke aiki. Kuma, abin da gaske ke aiki shine abin da ba mu kasance muna yi ba. Ba mu kasance "Haɗa Haɗuwa ba."
A kan kansa, Roger Hallam ya yarda cewa baya son haifar da hayaniya. Ba a cikin halayensa ba, amma ita ce kawai dabarar nasara.
Rashin biyayya yana aiki. Dalilin da ya sa yake aiki saboda abubuwa biyu ne: (1) Rushewa… ba wanda ya ɗauki wani sanarwa sai dai idan kun kawo cikas. Yana ƙara ƙima da ƙimar tattalin arziƙin abokan hamayya. Alhali, "kasancewa da kyau ba ya yin komai." Rushewa yana haifar da hankali, kuma hankali shine batu na farko da mutane suka fara canza ra'ayoyinsu. Misali na abin da ba ya aiki, a shekara ta 2003, mutane miliyan daya a London sun yi zanga-zangar nuna adawa da yakin Iraki. Masu zanga-zangar sun yi ta daga tutoci tare da tarwatsa tare da hada kai da masu ra'ayi iri daya, sannan suka hau bas suka nufi gida. Me ya faru? Babu wani abu da ya faru domin tattaki baya haifar da tarzoma. Yana nan kuma ya tafi. (2) Hadaya- ba tare da wahala ba babu canji. A lokacin da ka je gidan yari ne mutane suka dauke ka da muhimmanci. Abin da ke canza mutum shine ganin wasu mutane suna shan wahala don imaninsu.
XR ya ƙunshi kamawa da zuwa kurkuku. Taken XR shine: Faɗi gaskiya kuma kuyi kamar gaske. 'Yan tawaye dole ne su kasance a shirye su tayar da hankalin mutane. XR ta kara mutane 100,000 cikin jerin wasikunsu a cikin shekara guda saboda mutane suna son jin gaskiya.
Yaƙin neman 'yancin ɗan adam a Amurka misali ne na rushewar jama'a da ke aiki don amfanin wata manufa. Yaƙin neman zaɓe na 1961 ya fara da ɗalibai 25. MLK ya shawarce su da kada su yi. Sun yi haka ne suka kewaye KKK, inda suka kona motar bas dinsu tare da lakada wa daliban duka. Sai kuma wasu dalibai 25 suka zo; Jarida ta kasa ta biyo baya. Pres. Kennedy ya lura. Dan wariyar launin fata ya lakada masa duka. Wasu ɗaruruwan sun tafi Mississippi… An saka mutane 500 a kurkuku suna yin aiki tuƙuru. Kafin 'Yancin Freedom Riders, shekaru 70 na zanga-zangar al'ada ba ta yi aiki ba, ba ta motsa allurar 'yancin ɗan adam ba. Amma, makonni da yawa na Freedom Riders sun yi aikin. Sun haifar da hayaniya.
The Children's Maris- Birmingham kusan 1963 shi ne wani misali kamar yadda 50 yara, marching adawa da wariya, tafi kurkuku bayan tursasawa da 'yan sanda, wuta hoses da duka saboda yara kawai tafiya a tituna. Sannan, yara 1,000 a gidan yari; sai kuma 3,000 a kurkuku washegari, har sai da hukuma ta ba da izini. Shugaban ’yan sanda ya shiga da Birmingham, Alabama, ya amince a raba kantunan da ke yankin. Yaran sun haifar da hayaniya.
Canjin siyasa mai tsattsauran ra'ayi yana aiki lokacin da mahalarta ba su da tsoro. 'Ya'yan Birmingham sun kasance marasa tsoro a cikin rashin biyayya na jama'a.
A King's College Hallam an dakatar da shi sau biyu saboda tura burbushin mai. Daga ƙarshe, Kwalejin King ta ce za su karkatar da jarin kwalta a cikin ƴan shekaru. Daga nan sai Hallam da wani ɗalibi suka fara fesa alamu a cikin harabar makarantar. Sannan wasu dalibai takwas suka shiga, suka fesa harabar makarantar. Daga nan sai mataimakin shugaban makarantar ya zo cikin mintuna biyar da yin feshi mai yawa. A lokacin, an dakatar da Hallam daga kwalejin King. Duk da haka, ya sake shiga cikin kadarorin. Bayan makonni 5, jami'ar ta amince ta karkatar da su. A cewar Hallam, shirye-shiryen sadaukar da kai shine mabuɗin nasara.
A cikin Afrilu 2018 Tawayen Kare Haɓakar Haɓaka ya yi watsi da gargaɗin hukumomi. A cikin kwanaki 8 a Landan an kama mutane 1,200. Wannan shi ne tashin hankali mafi girma a London cikin shekaru 50. Kafin rikice-rikicen jama'a na Afrilu, jama'a ba su da ra'ayi game da sauyin yanayi. Bayan rushewar jama'a na XR, 67% na yawan jama'ar Burtaniya sun yarda da "gaggawa yanayi" kuma mutane 50,000 sun yi rajista don XR.
Rushewa da sadaukarwa sune abubuwan da ake bukata. Jama'a suna shiga saboda dalilai daban-daban. Ciki har da, (1) sun firgita game da abin da zai faru da rikicin yanayi, sanin aikinsu da matsayinsu ba zai kasance ba ko ta yaya idan ba a daina ba (2) yin lamiri ne. Yana da ma'ana na aikin jama'a. (3) Hankali na kasada ta mutanen da suka riga sun rikice a rayuwa kuma suna neman fansa a rayuwarsu.
Hukuncin tashin hankali yana nufin don ci gaba da rashin biyayya ga duniya bayyana "cikakkiyar gaggawa." Kusan kamar dai makomarsu ce a rayuwa.
Amma, shin da gaske akwai gaggawar yanayi a hannu? Amsa: An bayar, nazarin kimiyya, kuma za ku shiga cikin mutum ko ku ba da kuɗi ga XR. Kimiyya ta tabbata 100%, kuma abin ban tsoro ne!
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