YANZU DA DUNIYA, juyin juya halin Siriya yana cikin tsaka mai wuya, kuma Amurka da Turai suna shiga tsakani a cikin fatan samar da sakamako wanda zai dace da ajandar mulkin mallaka na Gabas ta Tsakiya.
Kimanin mutane 5,000 ne dakarun gwamnati suka kashe a Syria tun bayan barkewar zanga-zangar a watan Fabrairu, inda aka daure wasu dubbai da azabtarwa. To sai dai duk wanda ke ganin cewa Washington na da hakkin bil adama na al'ummar Siriya a zuciyarsa, ya tuna cewa a farkon makonnin da aka fara zanga-zangar watanni tara da suka gabata, Amurka ta yi shiru a daidai lokacin da dakarun shugaba Bashar al-Assad ke kokarin murkushe yunkurin zanga-zangar farko a kasar. garin Daraa. Sakatariyar harkokin wajen Amurka Hillary Clinton ta bayyana Assad a matsayin mai kawo sauyi, kuma shugaban kwamitin kula da harkokin waje na majalisar dattawa John Kerry, wanda ya kulla alaka ta kut da kut da Assad a shekarun baya, ya yi ikirarin baiwa shugaban kasar dama.
Makwabciyar Isra'ila - wacce shekaru da yawa ke bayyana Siriya a matsayin babbar barazana - ta kuma yi kira ga Amurka da ta ci gaba da rike Assad a wurin, domin cimma "kwanciyar hankali" a Gabas ta Tsakiya. A fagaren Isra'ila na magana game da gwamnatin Siriya tamkar makiya ce a kawance da Iran. Amma Assad har yanzu shine mafi aminci. Idan tsarin mulki ya canza ko kuma yunkurin dimokuradiyya ya sami gindin zama a Siriya, Isra'ila ba ta san abin da za ta yi tsammani ba.
Yayin da ake ci gaba da yin kisan kiyashi kuma yunkurin juyin juya hali ya yadu, Amurka ta kammala cewa kwanakin Assad sun kidaya kuma sun karkata zuwa ga yanayin canjin gwamnati. Kasashen yamma sun kuma samu kwarin guiwa da sakamakon boren kasar Libya, wanda aka yi awon gaba da shi sakamakon bama-bamai na kungiyar tsaro ta NATO, da masu ba da shawara na soji da kuma tsoffin masu hada kai da gwamnatin Muammar el-Qaddafi.
Don haka masu ra'ayin 'yan mulkin mallaka suna ta muhawara kan yadda za su daidaita tsoma bakinsu a Siriya. Mamaya irin na Iraki ba ya kan teburi saboda dalilai na soji, siyasa da tattalin arziki. Sai dai ma'aikatar harkokin wajen Amurka da ma'aikatun harkokin wajen Turai da ma'aikatun soji sun damu da cewa ko da wani harin bam da aka yi irin na Libiya zai iya wargaza Siriya, lamarin da ya haifar da irin yakin basasar da ake gani a makwabciyarta Lebanon.
Don haka manufarsu ita ce kawar da gwamnatin Assad tare da ci gaba da kasancewa a cikin kasar.
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Sakamakon haka, a yanzu galibin kasashen yamma sun takaita tsoma bakinsu ga takunkumi da kuma goyon bayan siyasa ga 'yan adawa. Yayin da Turkiyya memba ta NATO ta ba da izinin kafa sansanin 'yan tawayen Siriya - wanda ya kunshi masu sauya sheka daga sojojin Siriya - babu wata shaida kadan da ke nuna cewa an ba wa mayakan makamai da horo irin wanda aka ba wa dakarun 'yan tawayen Libya.
Don haka, abin da aka mayar da hankali a kai shi ne takunkumi. Kasashen yammacin Turai - wadanda ke aiki ta hanyar Turkiyya da Ƙungiyar Larabawa - suna fatan juyin mulkin soja wanda zai kawar da Bashar al-Assad da kuma barin jami'an tsaron Siriya na zalunci.
Burhan Ghalioun, shugaban Syrian National Council (SNC) - kungiyar 'yan adawar da ke da kusanci da kasashen yamma -yace shima haka yakeso: "Muna so mu bambance tsakanin gwamnati da kasar Siriya. Ba za a yi rikici kamar Libya ba. Har yanzu muna da cibiyoyin soji masu karfi da muke son adanawa."
Shugaban SNC ya ce yana adawa da tsoma bakin da ake yi irin na Libya kuma yana son Siriyawa su yi nasu juyin juya hali. Amma ya fito fili ya yi kira ga Majalisar Dinkin Duniya da ta ba da izinin wani yanki na hana zirga-zirgar jiragen sama don kare 'yan gudun hijirar tare da bai wa 'yan adawa wani yanki mai 'yanci inda za su tsara:
Muna rokon su [kasashen duniya] da su tantance duk wani zabin da zai yiwu don samar da kuma tilasta wa yankin tsaro a Siriya da kuma dakatar da ta'asar da ake yi a garuruwan Siriya. Muna neman wani yanki na hana tashi sama: rufe iyakataccen yanki, sama da yanki ɗaya kawai. Ba ma son a lalatar da makaman kare dangi na Siriya gaba daya.
Samfurin da ke bayyana ga SNC shine yankin hana tashi sama da Amurka da Birtaniyya suka kakaba akan Kurdistan na Iraqi bayan yakin Gulf na 1991. Manyan mutane a cikin SNC sunezagawa da takarda wata cibiyar tsaro ta kasa da kasa ta Biritaniya ta shirya wanda ke bayyana yadda irin wannan "yanki mai aminci" za a iya sanyawa daga kasashen yammacin Turai.
Ra'ayin Ghalioun ba lallai ba ne duk wasu abubuwa a cikin SNC su ke riƙe da su, wanda ya ƙunshi duka tsoffin tsoffin sojoji da ƙarin dakarun hagu na tsakiya. Amma Ghalioun ne wanda mulkin mallaka ke daukaka shi a matsayin babban jigo.
A halin yanzu, akwai bambance-bambance a cikin kawancen daular da Amurka ke kokarin amfani da su.
A nata bangaren, Turkiyya na son kaucewa yaki ko kuma kai hare-hare ta sama da NATO ke yi, wanda zai iya haifar da matsalar 'yan gudun hijira a kan iyakokinta. Har ila yau, tana son sake tabbatar da kanta a Siriya, wani yanki na tsohuwar daular Usmania ta Turkiyya. Hakan zai bai wa Turkiyya wadda ke dada dagewa a fagen siyasar Gabas ta Tsakiya tasiri sosai a kasashen Larabawa.
Shi ma shiga tsakanin kungiyar Larabawa ya rabu biyu. Tawagar da kungiyar ta yi fice sosai a Siriya sun hada da wakilai daga kasashen yankin Gulf wadanda ke matsayin wakilan Washington tare da wasu mutane kamar wani tsohon sojan Sudan da ake zargi da aikata laifukan yaki wanda ya fi nuna tausayi ga Assad fiye da manufofin Amurka.
Amma gabaɗaya, tawagar ƙungiyar Larabawa an yi niyya ne ba don dakatarwa ko fallasa zaluncin juyin juya halin ba, amma don samar da bincike ga mulkin mallaka - don nemo madadin tsarin mulki ga Assad. Sakon: Ditch Assad, kuma za ku iya kiyaye tsarin tsaro na jiharku da gata na tattalin arziki, kamar yadda 'yan jari-hujja da tagulla a Masar ke ƙoƙarin yi a lokacin mulkin Mubarak.
Wannan tayin na iya gwada wasu janar ko 'yan siyasa na Siriya da ke neman ceton fatar jikinsu a gwamnatin Assad. Amma a yanzu, zaɓin Masar yana da haɗari ga masu mulkin Siriya. Gwamnatin mulkin sojan da ke mulkin Masar na fuskantar matsala wajen tafiyar da mulkinta zuwa ga dimokuradiyya mai iyaka, kuma matsalolin irin wannan mataki a Siriya suna da yawa. Idan aka yi la'akari da tsauraran hanyoyin sadarwa a cikin rukunin masu mulkin Siriya, ba a bayyana inda za a kawo karshen kawar da Assad ba - kuma yana iya fita cikin sauki cikin sauki kuma ya kai ga wargajewar jihar.
Wannan ne ya sa dakarun Assad suka yi niyyar harbe masu zanga-zangar da suka fito kan tituna domin tuntubar masu sa ido na kungiyar kasashen Larabawa. Ko mene ne manufar ɗaiɗaikun wakilan, sun zama masu tabo ga gwamnati yadda ya kamata. Hotunan bidiyo da dama da masu fafutuka na juyin juya hali suka wallafa sun nuna cewa masu sa ido ba su yi komai ba yayin da ake danniya, ko dai saboda sun kasa yin wani abu ko kuma ba sa son yin wani abu.
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Yayin da kasashen Yamma suka kasa hambarar da Assad, haka nan kuma yunkurin juyin juya hali bai yi nasara ba.
Fiye da shekaru 40, gwamnatin Baath ta yi ta taka rawa a kan rarrabuwar kawuna na addini da na kabilanci don tabbatar da mulkinta. Yawancin jagororin soja da na siyasa sun fito ne daga tsirarun mabiya darikar Alawiyyah.
Jihar ta kuma zama mai kare tsirarun ‘yan tsiraru –Alawiyyawa, da kiristoci da Druze, a kan ‘yan Sunni masu rinjaye. Wannan shi ne dalilin da aka bayyana na kisan kiyashin 1981 a Hama.
Duk da haka, an yi wa Kurdawa wariya bisa tsari, gami da hana wasu mutane 300,000 haƙƙin zama ɗan ƙasa—har sai lokacin da gwamnatin ta ba da canjin siyasa a ƙoƙarin da bai yi nasara ba na janye Kurdawa daga yunkurin juyin juya hali.
Yana da wuce gona da iri, duk da haka, a siffanta jihar a matsayin tsarin "Alawite". Assad ya yi mulki ne tare da hadin gwiwar wata kafa ta kasuwanci ta 'yan Sunna, kuma an sake tsara wannan dangantaka ta hanyar sauye-sauyen da suka shafi kasuwa mai sassaucin ra'ayi wanda ya sake fasalta wasu masana'antu da al'adar jihar ta mamaye. Assad ya kuma jagoranci sake fasalin wasu masana'antu da 'yan kasuwa suka mamaye a al'adance. ‘Ya’yan jiga-jigan gwamnatin sun rika amfani da alakar siyasarsu ta iyali wajen yin katsalandan a harkokin kasuwancin ‘yan kasuwar gargajiya.
A sa'i daya kuma, akwai Kiristoci da yawa da ke adawa da gwamnatin da ke nesa da dukkan 'yan Alawiyyawa suna goyon bayansa. Alawiwa da yawa suna adawa da hakan saboda suna jin cewa dangin Assad sun ɗauki matakai da sunayensu waɗanda ba sa son a haɗa su da su – kuma ba su amfana da su ba.
Tare da hasashen yunkurin juyin-juya hali wanda ya rabe rabe-raben addini da na kabilanci, gwamnatin ta yi kokarin sake jaddada matsayinta na mai kare tsirarun tsiraru - na baya-bayan nan da ke nuni da tashin bama-bamai a babban birnin Damascus a matsayin aikin masu tsattsauran ra'ayin al-Qaeda da Sunna. Masu fafutukar neman sauyi sun yi ikirarin cewa ita kanta gwamnatin kasar ce ta dasa bama-baman a matsayin wani dalili na kara danniya.
Ko mene ne tushen harin, a bayyane yake cewa Assad da gwamnatin kasar sun yanke shawarar cewa korar gwagwarmayar yakin basasa shi ne mafi kyawun fatansa na samun masu rike da madafun iko, manyan sojoji da kuma tsiraru masu tsiraru.
Matsalar da ke damun gwamnatin, ita ce rashin isassun sojoji masu aminci da za su kai farmaki a lokaci guda a fadin kasar. Don haka, tana kokarin murƙushe harkar tare da kai hare-hare na sojoji a garuruwan da aka yi niyya, tare da yin amfani da maharba da ƴan daba wajen addabar masu zanga-zangar a wasu wurare.
A karkashin wannan matsin lamba, ya kasance da wahala ga kwamitocin daidaitawa na cikin gida - ƙungiyoyin juyin juya hali a ƙasa - su gabatar da wata madaidaicin madadin siyasa mai zaman kanta daga ƙara sa hannun SNC. Hagu na Siriya ƙanana ne kuma masu rauni, sun rabu tsakanin ƙungiyoyi masu goyon bayan gwamnati da kuma ƙananan ƙungiyoyin juyin juya hali waɗanda aka tilasta musu yin aiki a ƙarƙashin ƙasa saboda zalunci na gwamnati.
Haka kuma, a al'adance jihar ce ta mamaye kungiyoyin. Don haka, da kuma rarrabuwar kawuna ta kabilanci, addini, kabilanci da yanki, ma’aikata ba su shiga fafutuka da kansu ba.
Yayin da ma'aikata a manyan masana'antun masana'antu na iya shiga zanga-zangar, gwagwarmayar juyin-juya-halin da suke yi bai zo wuraren aiki a daidaitacciyar hanya ko kwata-kwata ba. Hakan dai ya sha bamban a kasar Masar, inda a shekarar da ta gabata aka yi juyin-juya-halin da aka shafe shekaru ana gwabzawa ma'aikata, yajin aikin da kuma fafutukar tabbatar da kungiyoyin ba tare da ikon gwamnati ba.
An dai gudanar da yajin aikin gama-gari a garuruwa da dama, amma yajin aikin na jama'a ne, inda aka rufe wuraren aiki tare da kananan shaguna a wani baje kolin nuna adawa. Zanga-zangar ba ta yi kadan ba a babban birnin Damascus da cibiyar kasuwanci ta Aleppo, ba wai kawai saboda matsin lamba na siyasa ba, amma saboda ’yan kasuwa da masu matsakaicin ra'ayi sun yi shakkar ballewa daga gwamnatin. Har ila yau, an yi tashe-tashen hankula a garuruwan biyu, tare da lika maharba a kusan kowane babban gini.
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CI GABA ga juyin juya halin ya dogara ne akan ko igiyoyin hagu a cikin kwamitocin daidaitawa na cikin gida na iya yin shiri don aiwatar da matakan aiki da za su iya yiwa gwamnatin kasar tuwo a kwarya ta fuskar tattalin arziki - kamar yadda ma'aikatan Masar suka yi a karshe suka tilasta hambarar da Hosni Mubarak.
Shirya irin wannan aikin a cikin mahallin danniya da yakin basasa na farko zai yi matukar wahala, ba shakka. Amma sai dai idan ba a kawo karfin zamantakewar ma'aikata ba, gwamnatin za ta yi kokarin tada zaune tsaye tare da kisa, kamawa, azabtarwa da matsalolin tattalin arziki. A cikin irin wannan yaki na cin karensu babu babbaka, kasar Siriya na da fa'ida sosai.
Menene gaba? Halin yana da matukar rashin kwanciyar hankali da rashin tabbas. Gwamnatin na iya rabuwa saboda matsin tattalin arziki da rashin iya murkushe tawayen. Ko kuma jihar za ta iya yin wani yakin basasa na bai-daya a yunkurin da take yi na ci gaba da rike madafun iko. Tsangwama na mulkin mallaka na iya ba Assad damar yin ƙoƙari don ɗaukar rigar kishin ƙasa kuma ya sami goyon baya ga ci gaba da mulki.
Amma akwai buɗaɗɗiyar sabon yunƙurin juyin juya hali. Dakarun Free Syrian Army ba za su ci galaba a kan kasar ta Siriya ba a wata arangama ta soji, sai dai ta hanyar tarwatsewar dimbin sojojin da za su iya kawar da danniya a muhimman wurare da kuma bude hanyar samun wani sabon yunkuri na neman sauyi. Masu fafutukar neman sauyi wadanda suka yi jajircewa wajen yaki da danniya za su iya shigar da gwagwarmaya cikin masana'antu da kuma tattara dakarun da za su gurgunta gwamnatin.
Irin wannan juyowa ga ma'aikata shine ra'ayi na ainihin sauyin juyin juya hali na Siriya - ba kawance da mulkin mallaka wanda Ghalioun na SNC ya gabatar ba.
Mais Jasser da Yusef Khalil sun ba da gudummawa ga wannan labarin.
ZNetwork ana samun kuɗi ta hanyar karimcin masu karatun sa.
Bada Tallafi