Sirrin makaman Pakistan Tallace-tallacen da aka yi wa Amurka ya taimaka wajen sauƙaƙe samun ceto mai cike da cece-kuce daga Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya a farkon wannan shekara, bisa ga wasu majiyoyi biyu masu ilimin tsarin, tare da tabbatarwa daga cikin takardun gwamnatin Pakistan da Amurka. An yi siyar da makaman ne da nufin samar da sojojin Ukraine - alamar shigar Pakistan cikin rikicin da ta fuskanci matsin lamba daga Amurka na daukar bangare a kai.
Tonon sililin da aka yi shi ne taga irin yadda ake yi a bayan fage tsakanin jiga-jigan masu kudi da na siyasa da ba kasafai ake fallasa su ga jama’a ba, duk da cewa jama’a na biyan farashi. Sauye-sauyen manufofin tsare-tsare masu tsauri da IMF ke nema a daidai lokacin da sharuddan ceton da ta yi a baya-bayan nan ya fara zanga-zangar da ake yi a kasar. Manyan yajin aiki sun yi faruwa a ko'ina cikin Pakistan a cikin 'yan makonnin nan don mayar da martani ga matakan.
Zanga-zangar dai ita ce babi na baya-bayan nan a cikin rikicin siyasar da aka kwashe shekara daya da rabi ana yi a kasar. A watan Afrilun 2022, sojojin Pakistan, tare da kwarin gwiwar Amurka, sun taimaka wajen shirya kuri'ar rashin amincewa da tsige Firayim Minista Imran Khan. Gabanin korar, jami'an diflomasiyyar ma'aikatar harkokin wajen kasar sun bayyana bacin ransu a asirce ga takwarorinsu na Pakistan game da abin da suka kira matsayin Pakistan na "tsakiyar tsaka tsaki" kan yakin Ukraine karkashin Khan. Su yayi gargadin mummunan sakamako idan Khan ya kasance a cikin mulki kuma ya yi alkawarin "dukkan za a gafarta" idan an cire shi.
"Demokiradiyyar Pakistan na iya zama asarar rayuka a harin Ukraine."
Tun bayan hambarar da Khan, Pakistan ta fito a matsayin mai taimakawa Amurka da kawayenta a yakin, taimakon da aka biya yanzu da lamuni na IMF. Lamunin gaggawa ya baiwa sabuwar gwamnatin Pakistan damar kawar da bala'in tattalin arziki da ke kunno kai kuma a dage zabuka har abada - lokacin da ake amfani da shi wajen kaddamar da zabe a kasar baki daya ragewa on ƙungiyoyin jama'a da kuma kurkuku Khan.
Arif Rafiq, wani masani ba mazaunin Cibiyar Gabas ta Tsakiya kuma kwararre kan Pakistan, ya shaida wa The Intercept cewa, "Dimokradiyyar Pakistan na iya zama sanadin hasarar harin da Ukraine ta kai.
An san Pakistan a matsayin cibiyar samar da nau'ikan kayan aikin da ake buƙata don niƙa yaƙi. Kamar yadda Ukraine ta yi fama da ita na kullum karanci na harsasai da na'urori, kasancewar harsashi da Pakistan ta kera da kuma wasu hukunce-hukunce da sojojin Ukraine suka yi ya bayyana a cikin rahotannin budaddiyar labarai game da rikicin, ko da yake Amurka da Pakistan ba su amince da shirin ba.
An fitar da bayanan da ke ba da cikakken bayani game da cinikin makamai zuwa The Intercept a farkon wannan shekara ta wata majiya a cikin sojojin Pakistan. Takardun sun bayyana tallace-tallacen makaman da aka amince da su tsakanin Amurka da Pakistan daga lokacin rani na 2022 zuwa bazara na 2023. Wasu daga cikin takardun an tabbatar da su ta hanyar daidaita sa hannun wani babban hafsan sojan Amurka tare da sa hannun sa kan bayanan jinginar gidaje a bainar jama'a a Amurka. ; ta hanyar daidaita takardun Pakistan tare da daidaitattun takardun Amurka; da kuma ta hanyar yin bita a bainar jama'a amma ɗan Pakistan ba a kai rahoto ba a baya sanarwar na sayar da makamai ga Amurka da Bankin Jiha na Pakistan ya buga.
An yi cinikin makaman ne, a cewar takardun, ta Global Military Products, wani reshen Global Ordnance, dillalin makaman da ke da cece-kuce, wanda rikicinsa da wasu mutane da ba su da daraja a Ukraine ya kasance batun batun labarin New York Times kwanan nan.
Takardun da ke bayyana hanyoyin samun kudin da kuma tattaunawa da jami'an Amurka sun hada da kwangilolin Amurka da Pakistan, da bayar da lasisi, da kuma takardun neman da suka shafi yarjejeniyar da Amurka ta yi na sayen makaman sojan Pakistan ga Ukraine.
Babban tattalin arziki da kuma yardar siyasa daga tallace-tallacen makamai sun taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen taimakawa wajen samun ceto daga IMF, tare da ma'aikatar harkokin wajen Amurka ta amince da amincewa da IMF game da yarjejeniyar makaman da ba a bayyana ba, a cewar majiyoyin da ke da masaniya game da tsarin, da kuma tabbatar da wata takarda mai alaƙa.
Don samun lamunin, IMF ta gaya wa Pakistan cewa dole ne ta cimma wasu manufofin bayar da kudade da sake samar da kudade da suka shafi basussukan ta da kuma saka hannun jarin waje - maƙasudin da ƙasar ke ƙoƙarin cimmawa. Siyar da makaman ta zo ne don ceto, tare da kudaden da aka samu daga sayar da alburusai da aka yi wa Ukraine ya yi nisa don cike gibin.
Tabbatar da lamunin ya sassauta matsin tattalin arziki, wanda ya baiwa gwamnatin mulkin soja damar jinkirta zabe - mai yuwuwar yin kisa a tsawon lokacin da aka cire Khan - da kuma zurfafa murkushe magoya bayan Khan da sauran masu adawa da shi. Amurka ta yi shiru ba tare da bata lokaci ba game da irin gagarumin girman take hakkin dan Adam da ya jefa makomar dimokuradiyyar Pakistan cikin shakku.
Rafiq ya ce "Tsarin shi ne cewa dole ne mu ceci Ukraine, dole ne mu ceci wannan iyakar ta dimokiradiyya a yankin gabashin Turai." “Sai kuma wannan kasar Asiya mai launin ruwan kasa dole ne ta biya farashi. Don haka za su iya zama mulkin kama-karya, ana iya hana mutanensu 'yancin da kowane mashahuran kasar nan ke cewa muna bukatar mu goyi bayan Ukraine - ikon zabar shugabanninmu, ikon samun 'yancin jama'a, bin doka, duk wadannan. nau'ikan abubuwan da za su iya bambanta yawancin ƙasashen Turai da kuma tsarin dimokuradiyya daga Rasha."
Bama-bamai don Bailouts
A ranar 23 ga Mayu, 2023, bisa ga binciken The Intercept, jakadan Pakistan a Amurka Masood Khan ya zauna tare da mataimakin sakataren harkokin wajen Amurka Donald Lu a ma'aikatar harkokin wajen Amurka a Washington, DC, don wani taro kan yadda Pakistan ta sayar da makamai ga Ukraine zai iya habaka. matsayinsa na kudi a idon IMF. Makasudin zaman taron da aka gudanar a ranar Talata, shi ne fitar da cikakkun bayanai game da shirin da za a yi a birnin Islamabad a ranar Juma'a mai zuwa tsakanin jakadan Amurka a Pakistan Donald Blome da ministan kudi na lokacin Ishaq Dar.
Lu ya gaya wa Khan a taron na ranar 23 ga Mayu cewa Amurka ta share biyan bashin kera makaman Pakistan kuma za ta gaya wa IMF a asirce game da shirin. Lu ya yarda cewa 'yan Pakistan sun yi imanin cewa gudummawar makamai ta kai dala miliyan 900, wanda zai taimaka wajen cike gibin da ya rage a cikin kudaden da IMF ke bukata, wanda ya kai kusan dala biliyan 2. Wani takamaiman adadi da Amurka za ta bayar ga IMF ya rage a tattauna, in ji Khan.
A taron ranar Juma'a, Dar ya kawo tambayar IMF tare da Blome, a cewar wani rahoto a Pakistan Today, wanda ya ce "Taron ya bayyana mahimmancin magance yarjejeniyar IMF da ta tsaya cik da kuma samar da ingantattun hanyoyin magance kalubalen tattalin arzikin Pakistan."
Wani mai magana da yawun ofishin jakadancin Pakistan a Washington ya ki cewa komai, yana mai mika tambayoyi ga ma'aikatar harkokin wajen Amurka. Wani mai magana da yawun ma'aikatar harkokin wajen Amurka ya musanta cewa Amurka ta taka rawa wajen taimakawa wajen siyan lamunin. "Tattaunawa game da sake duba IMF wani lamari ne da za a tattauna tsakanin Pakistan da jami'an IMF," in ji kakakin. "Amurka ba ta cikin wadancan tattaunawar, kodayake muna ci gaba da karfafawa Pakistan gwiwa don yin aiki mai inganci tare da IMF kan shirinta na sake fasalin."
Wani mai magana da yawun IMF ya musanta cewa an matsa wa cibiyar lamba amma bai ce komai ba kan ko an amince da shirin makaman ne. Kakakin IMF Randa Elnagar ya ce "Muna musanta zargin cewa akwai matsin lamba daga waje kan IMF ta wata hanya ko wata yayin da muke tattaunawa kan tallafi ga Pakistan." (Global Ordnance, kamfanin da ke da hannu a cinikin makamai, bai amsa bukatar yin sharhi ba.)
"Abin da na fahimta, dangane da tattaunawa da mutane a cikin gwamnati, shi ne cewa mun goyi bayan kunshin lamuni na IMF saboda halin matsin tattalin arziki a Pakistan."
Amincewar da ma'aikatar harkokin wajen Amurka ta yi ya ci karo da Sanata Chris Van Hollen na jam'iyyar Democrat na Maryland, babban mai fada a ji a Washington kan harkokin kasashen waje. A farkon wannan watan, Van Hollen ya gaya gungun 'yan jaridun Pakistan, "Amurka ta ba da gudummawa sosai wajen tabbatar da cewa IMF ta fito da agajin gaggawa na tattalin arziki." Van Hollen, wanda iyayensa duka sun kasance a Pakistan a matsayin jami'an Ma'aikatar Harkokin Wajen, an haife shi ne a Karachi kuma an san shi ne mafi kusancin Pakistan a Majalisa.
A wata hira da The Intercept a Capitol ranar Talata, Van Hollen ya ce saninsa game da rawar da Amurka ke takawa wajen samar da lamuni na IMF ya fito ne kai tsaye daga gwamnatin Biden. "Abin da na fahimta, dangane da tattaunawa da mutane a cikin gwamnati, shi ne cewa mun goyi bayan kunshin lamuni na IMF saboda halin matsin tattalin arziki a Pakistan," in ji shi.
Yarjejeniyar IMF ta Sa'a Goma sha ɗaya
Tattaunawar diflomasiyya game da lamuni ya zo ne wata daya kafin ranar 30 ga Yuni don sake duba IMF na shirin biyan dala biliyan , wani bangare na yarjejeniyar dala biliyan 6 da aka yi a shekarar 2019. Binciken da bai yi nasara ba zai nuna cewa ba za a iya shigar da tsabar kudi ba, amma, a cikin watanni. kuma makwanni gabanin wa'adin, jami'an Pakistan sun fito fili sun musanta cewa sun fuskanci kalubale sosai wajen samar da sabon lamuni.
A farkon shekarar 2023, Dar, ministan kudi, ya ce tabbacin bayar da kudade daga waje - a takaice dai, alkawurran kudi daga wurare kamar China, kasashen Gulf, ko Amurka - ba sharadin da IMF ke nacewa Pakistan ta cika ba. A cikin Maris 2023, duk da haka, wakilin IMF mai kula da hulda da Pakistan ya saba wa kima na Dar. Shugabar IMF, Esther Perez Ruiz ta ce a cikin wata sanarwa imel zuwa Reuters cewa duk masu karbar bashi suna buƙatar su iya nuna cewa za su iya ba da kuɗin biyan kuɗi. "Pakistan ba banda ba," in ji Perez.
Sanarwar ta IMF ta aike da jami'an Pakistan suna zage-zage don neman mafita. Kuɗaɗen da ake buƙata, bisa ga rahoton jama'a kuma majiyoyin da ke da masaniyar tsarin sun tabbatar, an saita dala biliyan 6. Don cimma wannan buri, gwamnatin Pakistan ta yi ikirarin cewa ta samu kusan dala biliyan hudu na alkawurra daga kasashen yankin Gulf. Yarjejeniyar makamai ta sirri ga Ukraine za ta baiwa Pakistan damar kara kusan dala biliyan guda a cikin ma'auni - idan Amurka ta bar IMF ta shiga cikin sirrin.
Rafiq, masanin Cibiyar Gabas ta Tsakiya ya ce "Abin ya kasance cikin tsaka mai wuya saboda sauran dala biliyan biyu." “Don haka idan wannan adadi ya yi daidai, dala miliyan 2, kusan rabin wancan ke nan. Wannan yana da matukar mahimmanci dangane da wannan gibin da ya kamata a cike.”
A ranar 29 ga watan Yuni, kwana guda kafin cikar shirin na asali, asusun na IMF ya ba da sanarwar ba zato cewa, maimakon tsawaita jerin lamuni na baya da kuma fitar da kashi na gaba na dala biliyan 1.1 na gaba. a maimakon haka bankin zai shiga yarjejeniya - "wanda ake kira Tsarin Tsayawa" - tare da ƙananan igiyoyi a haɗe, ƙarin sharuɗɗa masu dacewa, kuma mai daraja a $ 3 biliyan.
“Idan da hakan bai faru ba, da an samu tabarbarewar tattalin arziki a kasar. Don haka ya kasance lokacin yin ko hutu.”
Yarjejeniyar ta hada da sharuddan da za a ba da damar yin shawagi cikin walwala da kuma janye tallafin makamashi. An dai kammala yarjejeniyar ne a watan Yuli bayan majalisar dokokin kasar ta amince da sharuddan da suka hada da karin kusan kashi 50 cikin dari na kudin makamashi.
Uzair Younus, darektan Initiative na Pakistan a Cibiyar Kudancin Asiya ta Atlantic Council, ya ce yarjejeniyar IMF na da matukar muhimmanci ga rayuwar tattalin arzikin Pakistan na gajeren lokaci. "Idan da hakan bai faru ba, da an samu koma-bayan tattalin arziki a kasar," in ji Younus. "Don haka lokacin yin ko hutu ne."
Tambayar yadda Pakistan ta shawo kan cikas na samar da kudade, ta kasance wani asiri har ma ga masu bin lamarin da kwarewa. IMF ta ba da lissafin jama'a game da bitar ta, Rafiq ya lura, amma yin hakan idan kuɗin ya shafi ayyukan soja na sirri yana ba da ƙalubale da ba a saba gani ba. "Pakistan abu ne mai ban mamaki, ta hanyoyi da yawa," in ji shi, "amma ban san yadda wani sirri, sirri, shirin soja na sirri zai shiga cikin lissafinsu ba, saboda komai ya kamata a bude da kuma littattafai da duk wannan. ”
Imran Khan, Ukraine, da kuma makomar Pakistan
A farkon yakin Ukraine, Pakistan tana cikin wani yanayi na siyasa da tattalin arziki na daban. Lokacin da aka fara rikicin, Khan, a lokacin firaministan kasar, ya kasance cikin iska a kan hanyar zuwa Moscow domin wani dogon shiri da aka tsara na ganawar da shugaban Rasha Vladimir Putin. Ziyarar ta harzuka jami'an Amurka.
Kamar yadda The Intercept a baya ya ruwaito, Lu, babban jami'in ma'aikatar harkokin wajen Amurka, ya ce a wata ganawa da jakadan Pakistan na lokacin Asad Majeed Khan makonni biyu bayan mamayewar cewa imanin Amurka ne cewa Pakistan ta dauki matakin tsaka-tsaki ne kawai a cikin umarnin Khan, ya kara da cewa "dukkan su za a gafartawa" idan an cire Khan a cikin kuri'ar rashin amincewa. Tun bayan hambarar da shi, Pakistan ta dade tana goyon bayan Amurka da Ukraine a yakin.
Amurka, a halin da ake ciki, na ci gaba da musanta cewa ta sanya babban yatsa kan sikelin dimokuradiyyar Pakistan - don Ukraine ko wani dalili. A wani wurin ba da labari, zauren gari mai kama-da-wane tare da membobin Pakistan mazauna kasashen waje a karshen watan Agusta, mataimakiyar Lu, Elizabeth Horst, ta amsa tambayoyi game da rahoton Intercept game da ganawar Lu tare da jakadan Pakistan.
"Ina so in dauki lokaci don magance rashin fahimta game da rawar da Amurka ke takawa a siyasar Pakistan," in ji Horst a saman kiran, wanda wani mai halarta ya bayar da sautin ga The Intercept. "Ba za mu bar farfaganda, bayanan karya, da ɓata lokaci su kawo cikas ga duk wata alaƙar da ke tsakaninmu, gami da kyakkyawar dangantakarmu da Pakistan. Amurka ba ta da matsayi a kan wani dan takarar siyasa ko wata jam'iyya da wata. Duk wani ikirari akasin haka, gami da rahotanni kan wanda ake zargin karya ne, kuma manyan jami'an Pakistan da kansu sun yarda cewa wannan ba gaskiya ba ne."
Manyan jami'an Pakistan da suka hada da tsohon Firaministan Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif sun yi tabbatar sahihancin kebul ɗin, wanda aka sani a ciki a matsayin cypher, wanda The Intercept ya buga.
Van Hollen, a taron manema labarai da ya yi da ‘yan jaridun Pakistan, ya dauki layi daya da ma’aikatar harkokin wajen Amurka, yana mai cewa gwamnatin kasar ta ba shi tabbacin cewa Amurka ba ta tsoma baki a harkokin siyasar Pakistan. A cikin hirarsa da The Intercept, ya fayyace cewa yana nufin Amurka ba Injiniya Khan ta kori ba. "Ba na jayayya da daidaiton kebul ɗin," in ji Van Hollen. "Duba, ban san inda gwamnatin ke kan menene ra'ayinsu game da sakamako na ƙarshe ba, amma ban karanta wannan [kebul] da ke nufin cewa Amurka ta yi injiniyan cire shi ba."
Bayan da suka kitsa tsige Khan, sojoji sun fara yunkurin kawar da jam'iyyarsa ta siyasa ta hanyar kisa da tsare jama'a. Shi kansa Khan a halin yanzu yana tsare a gidan yari tuhume-tuhumen da ake yi na karkatar da wani daftarin aiki tare da fuskantar wasu karin tuhume-tuhume 150 - zarge zargen da ake kallo a matsayin hujjar hana shi tsayawa takara a zabe mai zuwa.
An kuma matsawa Horst, a zauren garin, game da dalilin da ya sa aka yi wa Amurka shiru don mayar da martani. Ta ce Amurka ta yi magana a madadin dimokradiyya. “Duba, na san da yawa daga cikinku kuna jin ƙarfi kuma kuna damuwa sosai game da halin da ake ciki a Pakistan. Na ji daga gare ku. Ku amince da ni idan na ce na gan ku, sai na ji daga gare ku. Kuma ina so in mai da martani,” in ji ta. "Muna ci gaba da yin magana a bainar jama'a da kuma a asirce kan dimokradiyyar Pakistan."
Yayin da Pakistan ke fama da tasirin manufofin tsuke bakin aljihu da IMF ke jagoranta da kuma tabarbarewar siyasa da ta biyo bayan cire Khan daga mukaminsa, sabbin shugabannin sojojinta sun yi alkawalin mai girma cewa tallafin tattalin arzikin kasashen waje zai ceto kasar. A cewar rahotanni a jaridar Dawn ta Pakistan, babban hafsan sojin kasar Janar Asim Munir kwanan nan ya fada taron ‘yan kasuwar Pakistan da kasar za ta yi tsammanin samun sabbin jarin da ya kai dala biliyan 100 daga Saudi Arabiya da sauran kasashen yankin Gulf, wanda ke nuni da cewa ba za a kara yin kira ga IMF ba.
Akwai 'yan kadan shaida, duk da haka, cewa kasashen yankin Gulf a shirye suke su kai dauki ga Pakistan. Kwanan nan Yarima mai jiran gado na Saudiyya Mohammed bin Salman, ko MBS, ya sanar da manyan saka hannun jari da hadin gwiwar tattalin arziki da Indiya a ziyarar da ya kai wurin taron G20. Duk da rahotannin da jaridun Pakistan suka bayar bayyana bege cewa MBS zai kai ziyara Pakistan, babu wanda ya tabbata, balle duk wani sabon sanarwar saka hannun jari.
Rashin sauran goyon bayan kasashen waje ya sa gwamnatin Pakistan da ke fama da rikici ta kara dogaro da IMF, Amurka, da samar da makaman yaki a Ukraine don dorewar kanta a rikicin da ba ya nuna alamar kuduri.
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