Yayin da ya rage makwanni kadan kafin wa’adin ranar 20 ga watan Yuli, gwamnatin Barack Obama ta yi gargadi ga Iran cewa, dole ne ta amince da rage yawan ma’aikatun ta domin nuna cewa shirin nukiliyar nata na zaman lafiya ne kawai.
Jami'an Amurka sun yi iƙirarin cewa irin wannan raguwar ya zama dole don ƙara lokacin "ɓarkewar" - lokacin da zai ɗauki Iran don haɓaka isasshiyar uranium zuwa matakin matakin makami don gina bam ɗaya - daga abin da aka ce watanni biyu zuwa uku a halin yanzu. har tsawon shekara guda ko ma fiye da haka.
Tehran ta bayyana karara cewa ba za ta amince da wannan bukata ba. Rushe mafi yawan centrifuges da Iran ta girka wani lamari ne mai ma'ana sosai, kuma tsadar karbuwar siyasa zai yi yawa matuka.
To sai dai idan aka yi la'akari da batutuwan da ake tattaunawa a kai a kai, na nuni da cewa irin matsin lambar da ake yi wa Iran na daga cikin dabarun da ke da nufin fitar da rangwame daga Iran kan batun samar da karin karfin da za ta iya samu na tsawon lokaci.
Gwamnatin Obama ta san tun farkon tattaunawar cewa za a iya tsawaita wa'adin "karshe" zuwa kusan shekara guda ba tare da buƙatar cire yawancin centrifuges 10,000 da aka yi amfani da su a cikin shekaru biyu da rabi da suka wuce.
Jami'an Amurka suna sane da cewa rage karancin sinadarin uranium da oxide da Iran ke tarawa a yanzu zuwa kusan sifili da kuma gujewa duk wani abin da zai tara a nan gaba zai yi tasiri iri daya - kuma Iran a shirye take ta amince da wannan takunkumin.
David Albright na Cibiyar Kimiyya da Tsaro ta kasa da kasa da Olli Heinonen, tsohon mataimakin darekta janar na Hukumar Kare Nukiliya ta Duniya (IAEA), sun yi gargadi a cikin labarin ranar 3 ga watan Yuni game da yarjejeniyar da za ta bai wa Iran damar samun fiye da 4,000 centrifuges a cikin shirin. dawowa don rage hannun jari na UF6 da foda oxide (UO2).
Amma sun yarda cewa, idan aka rage yawan adadin LEU na Iran daga matakin yanzu na kilogiram 8,475 zuwa kilogiram 1,000, lokacin fashewa na 10,000 IR-1 centrifuges zai zama watanni shida. Kuma idan an rage yawan tarin zuwa sifili, lokacin fashewa zai ƙaru zuwa kusan shekara guda, bisa ga ɗaya daga cikin jadawali da ke tare da labarin.
Kwararru daga Ma'aikatar Makamashi da kuma na jami'an leken asiri sun yi wa masu tsara manufofin karin haske game da gaskiyar cewa tsawaita lokacin fita tsakanin watanni shida zuwa 12 za'a iya cimma ta hanyar rage ko dai centrifuges ko kuma tarin sinadarin uranium mai karanci (LEU), a cewar Steve Fetter, wanda ya kasance mataimakin darekta a babban ofishin Kimiyya da Fasaha na Fadar White House daga 2009-12.
Kawar da tarin tarin LEU da ke akwai tare da kaucewa duk wani abin da zai tara shi ne manufar wata shawara ta Iran da ministan harkokin wajen Iran Mohammad Javad Zarif ta mika wa shugabar harkokin wajen kungiyar EU Catherine Ashton a hukumance a Istanbul a watan jiya. A karkashin wannan shawara, wanda Zarif ya bayyana a wata hira da IPS a Tehran Yuni 3, Iran za ta mayar da duk UF6 zuwa Uranium oxide foda (U02) sa'an nan kuma mayar da U02 zuwa man fetur faranti na Bushehr.
Iran ta nuna sha'awar kera farantin mai ga Bushehr kanta, amma har yanzu ba ta kware da fasahar ba. Don haka shawarar za ta ƙunshi jigilar kaya ko dai UF6 mai wadatar zuwa kashi 3.5 ko kuma U02 zuwa Rasha don canzawa zuwa farantin mai har sai ƙarshen yarjejeniyar da Rasha ta kera mai na Bushehr ta ƙare a 2021.
A cikin yarjejeniyar wucin gadi, Iran ta kuduri aniyar fara mayar da UF6 mai arzikin zuwa kashi 3.5 zuwa oxide foda da zaran layinta na wannan canjin ya fara aiki. The Inriched U02 Powder Plant ya fara aiki a watan Mayu, amma lokacin da ake buƙata don rage yawan abin da ake samu zuwa sifili zai dogara ne akan ƙarfin shuka, wanda ba a bayyana ba.
Zarif ya shaida wa IPS cewa ya bayyana ainihin ra'ayin da ke tattare da shawarar Iran a cikin gabatar da PowerPoint ga jami'an Turai a Geneva a tsakiyar Oktoba.
Lokacin da Sakataren Harkokin Wajen Amurka John Kerry ya bayyana a watan Afrilu cewa zai bukaci a kara girma a cikin lokacin "barkewa" na yanzu zuwa wani wuri tsakanin watanni shida zuwa 12, saboda haka, yana da kyakkyawan dalili na gaskata cewa Washington za ta iya cimma wannan manufar ba tare da yanke centrifuges na Iran ba. zuwa 'yan dubbai.
Yarjejeniyar daskarar da matakin da ake da shi na centrifuges 10,000 na aiki yayin da rage yawan hajojin LEU zuwa sifili zai iya sanya centrifuges 9,000 waɗanda ba a taɓa sarrafa su a cikin ma'ajiya ba ƙarƙashin hatimin IAEA. Wadanda aka yi amfani da su sun haɗa da ci-gaba 1,000 IR-2 centrifuges waɗanda aka kiyasta sun fi inganci sau uku zuwa biyar fiye da ƙirar IR-1.
Manufar Iran na shigar da dubban centrifuges a cikin cibiyoyin sarrafa Natanz da Fordow waɗanda ba a taɓa amfani da su ba na da nufin tara guntun shawarwari don yin shawarwari kan shirinta na nukiliya.
A ƙarshen Agusta 2012, wani babban jami'in Amurka ya gaya wa jaridar New York Times cewa Iran tana da "masu dabara sosai" ta hanyar "ƙirƙirar iyawa mai girma," amma "ba ta amfani da ita." A cikin yin haka, jami'in ya ce, Iran na samun "hankali" - a fili yana nufin tattaunawar nan gaba.
A yayin zagayen tattaunawar da aka yi a Vienna a watan Yuni, duk da haka, daftarin da P5+1 ya gabatar a fili ya yi kira da a rage abin da ya wuce abin da jami'an Amurka suka sani zai zama karbuwa ga Iran. Jami'an Amurka sun fada wa jaridar New York Times cewa yanzu manufar ita ce tsawaita "lokacin barkewar" fiye da shekara guda - don haka ya wuce abin da Kerry ya ba da shawara a watan Afrilu.
Daftarin ƙila ya haɗa da wata matsananciyar buƙata daga gwamnatin Faransa. Ministan Harkokin Wajen Faransa Laurent Fabius ya bayyana a tsakiyar watan Yuni cewa kasashen Yamma suna son rage yawan adadin centrifuges zuwa "dari da yawa".
Bayan tattaunawar da aka yi a watan Yuni, Zarif ya yi tir da daftarin da cewa ya kunshi "bukatu masu yawa" wadanda Iran ba za ta amince da su ba.
Amma waɗancan buƙatun da alama wata dabara ce ta tattaunawa wacce Amurka za ta yi watsi da buƙatun rage ƙarancin ɗan gajeren lokaci a cikin shekaru masu zuwa don dawo da rangwamen Iran kan matakin haɓaka ƙarfin da za a ba da izini a matakin ƙarshe na yarjejeniyar. .
Shirin Haɗin gwiwa na Ayyuka na Nuwamba 2013 ya ba da cewa shirin ingantawa na gaba zai dogara ne akan "buƙatun na Iran na gaske". Iran ta fassara wannan kalmar da cewa ta hada da bukatar dogaro da kai wajen samar da makamashin makamashi ga Bushehr, yayin da gwamnatin Obama ke jayayya cewa Iran za ta iya kuma ya kamata ta dogara ga Rasha ko wasu masu samar da kayayyaki na kasashen waje.
Dangane da tarihin tsoma baki na siyasa a cikin yarjejeniyar man fetur da Iran ta yi shawarwari da kamfanonin Faransa da Jamus a cikin 1980s da kuma Rasha a cikin 2005, duk da haka, Washington ta san cewa tana fuskantar babban siyar da take ƙoƙarin sa Iran ta amince da dagewar da Amurka ta yi kan dogaro ga masu samar da kayayyaki na ketare. .
Ma'auni na "masu amfani" yana nuna cewa Iran za ta samar da tabbataccen shaida na bukatarta da kuma ikon samar da sandunan mai ga injin Bushehr lokacin da kwantiragin yanzu da Rasha ya kare a 2021.
Dage tattaunawar da ake yi kan wannan batu har zuwa ranar da ta fi kusa da shekarar 2021, zai ba da wa'adin wasu 'yan shekaru don yin shawarwari kan yarjejeniyar hadin gwiwar man fetur na yankin gabas ta tsakiya da za ta samu karbuwa ga bangarorin biyu, kamar yadda kungiyar ta gabatar. Masana kimiyya da masana Jami'ar Princeton.
Wataƙila ma mafi mahimmanci, irin wannan jinkirin zai ba da damar haɓaka amana ta hanyar nasarar aiwatar da yarjejeniyar da ta shafi ƴan shekaru masu zuwa.
Da yake bayyana shirin kungiyar Princeton a wani taron karawa juna sani da aka yi a Washington, DC a makon da ya gabata, masanin kimiyyar nukiliya Frank N. von Hippel, wanda ya kasance mataimakin darektan tsaron kasa a ofishin kimiyya da fasaha na fadar White House a gwamnatin Bill Clinton, ya ce, “Za mu da shekaru biyar don kwantar da hankalina. "
Gareth Porter ɗan jarida ne mai bincike mai zaman kansa kuma ya lashe kyautar Gellhorn na 2012 don aikin jarida. Shi ne marubucin sabon rikicin da aka kera da aka buga: Labarin da ba a bayyana ba na fargabar nukiliyar Iran.
ZNetwork ana samun kuɗi ta hanyar karimcin masu karatun sa.
Bada Tallafi