Shekaru hudu bayan mamayewa da mamayar da Amurkawa suka yi wa Iraki, gwamnatin Bush ba ta da wani abin murna da tawali'u, watakila babu wani abin da ya fi daukar hankali kamar tasirin zanga-zangar.
Maimakon nuna ƙarfi da ban tsoro, gwamnatin Bush ta nuna girman kai na daular da tada hankali. Maimakon ci gaba da mutunta dimokuradiyya, ta nuna yadda za a iya cin zarafinta cikin sauki.
Dalilan da suka sa aka mamaye kasar Irakin su ne yunƙurin tabbatar da isar da man fetir a yankin ba tare da wata tangarɗa ba, da kuma fifikon dabarun kare Isra'ila daga duk wani abin da zai hana ta mamaye yankin.
Sai dai kuma dalilai na biyu na yakin sun hada da kudurin hana kawaye da masu fafutuka daga hankoron gudanar da harkokin shugabancin duniya, da hana sake bullowar kasar Rasha a matsayin babbar kasa mai gaba da gaba, da kuma hana sauran kasashen duniya burin kalubalantar mamayar Amurka. Waɗannan su ne manyan abubuwan da Amurka ke ba da fifiko a cikin takaddun hukuma da aka shirya jim kaɗan bayan ƙarshen yakin cacar baka.
Ya kamata mamayewa da mamaye Iraki ya kamata ya nuna wa abokai da abokan gaba irin karfin soja na babbar kasa daya tilo da ta rage a duniya, da kuma shirye-shiryen Washington na yin amfani da wannan ikon don aiwatar da nufinta.
Tasirin zanga-zangar ya kuma hada da, a baya-bayan nan, da'awar da ba ta dace ba na cewa yakin na nufin tabbatar da dimokuradiyya a Iraki da kuma nunawa yankin kimar mulkin dimokradiyya.
Tasirin nunin da aka yi niyya ba shine tasirin nunin da shekaru huɗu na sana'a suka haifar ba.
Abin da aka bayyana a fili bayan shekaru hudu na yaki shi ne cewa kasar da ta fi kowacce karfin soja a duniya ba ta da wani karfi wajen dora wa al'ummar Irakin ra'ayi, ko kuma dakile yunkurin mamaye kasar.
A ranar 12 ga Afrilu, wasu gungun 'yan tada kayar baya sun kai harin bam a majalisar dokokin Iraki da ke yankin Green Zone mafi tsaro a Bagadaza, inda suka kashe mutane takwas. Gwamnatin Bush ta yarda cewa ko da Green Zone ba shi da lafiya. Kuma wannan ya zo ne bayan watanni biyu na sabuwar dabarar soji da aka yi wa lakabi da "surge" wanda ya kawo karin sojojin Amurka zuwa Iraki amma ba karin tsaro ba.
Masu tasiri na ra'ayi suna fahimtar hakan kuma sun yarda da hakan. Don haka, editocin jaridar New York Times sun bukaci Fadar White House ta fahimci cewa "Nasara ba wani zaɓi ba ne a Iraki, idan har ta kasance. Maƙasudin maƙasudin da ya rage shi ne a haƙiƙance tsara ficewar Amurka da babu makawa." (Maris 29,07)
Hatta 'yan jam'iyyar Bush na barinsa. Sanata Chuck Hagel daga Nebraska na jam'iyyar Republican ya kada kuri'a tare da 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat a kuri'ar da majalisar dattijai ta yi na neman a dage ranar janyewa daga Iraki. Hagel ya ce: "Ba za a sami hanyar soji a warware rikicin Iraki ba. Iraki na cikin 'yan Iraki miliyan 25 da ke zaune a can. Ba na Amurka ba ne. Iraki ba wata kyauta ce da za a ci ko asara ba." (NYT. Maris 28.07).
Ba tare da tsoratarwa ba, a baya-bayan nan ne shugaba Putin na Rasha ya yi rangadi a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya a wani farmakin diflomasiyya da ake gani a fili, bayan da ya yi kakkausar suka ga manufofin ketare na Amurka a duniya musamman a yankin gabas ta tsakiya. A baya-bayan nan kasar Sin mai murza tsokoki, ta yi nasarar gwada wani na'urar harba makami mai linzami wanda ya kara jaddada burinta na matsayin duniya.
Nisa daga abin da ya ba da mamaki a yankin, yakin Iraki da tasirin manufofin ketare na soja da gurgunta karfi, ya karfafawa Iran gwiwa wajen tabbatar da kanta da karfi. Kawayen gargajiya irin su Saudiyya sun yi kakkausar suka kan haramcin mamayar Iraki tare da yin kira ga hadin kan Larabawa da su hana kasashen waje ikon mallakar yankin.
Hatta Hizbollah, ba tare da tsoratarwa ba, ta yi tsayin daka sosai ga harin da Amurka ta kai wa Lebanon a bazarar da ta gabata.
Sakamakon zanga-zangar da dimokuradiyya ta samu a cikin hukumomin Iraki da kuma yaduwa zuwa sauran kasashen Gabas ta Tsakiya ya haifar da wata zanga-zanga ta daban.
Na farko, ta nuna cewa dimokuradiyyar da aka yi amfani da ita ta hanyar bindiga ba ta da tushe balle makama sai dai in an halalta tsarinta na jam'iyyu da zabuka na yau da kullum ta hanyar amincewar jama'a cikin 'yanci da kuma shiga cikin harkokin siyasa. Dimokuradiyya a Iraki ba ta da duka biyun.
Har ila yau, dimokuradiyya ta wuce tattalin arzikin kasuwa, wanda mamaya na Amurka ya yi gaggawar aiwatar da shi, ba da kwangilar ba ga manyan kamfanonin Amurka, ba tare da la'akari da muradun kasa na al'ummar Iraki ba.
Dimokuradiyya kuma ita ce tushen doka da mutunta 'yancin ɗan adam. A nan kuma, maimakon nuna girmamawa ga waɗannan ƙa'idodin ta hanyar kiyaye dokokin ƙasa da ƙasa game da fursunoni, yaƙin ya nuna kyamar mulkin demokraɗiyya na gwamnatin Bush.
Gwamnatin kasar ta amince da cin zarafi da cin zarafi a Iraki, da Guantanamo Bay a Cuba, da kuma Bagram a Afghanistan. A Iraki, azabtarwa ya zama ruwan dare kuma bai iyakance ga abin kunya na wasu sojojin Amurka a Abu Ghraib ba.
Kungiyar kare hakkin bil'adama ta Human Rights Watch ta la'anci Amurka saboda tauye hakkin bil'adama a duniya a shekara ta 2004. A wata budaddiyar wasika da ta aike wa shugaba Bush, mai kwanan wata ranar 7 ga Mayu, 2006 Amnesty International ta ce: "cin zarafin da ake zargin jami'an Amurka a cibiyar Abu Ghraib da ke Bagadaza, laifukan yaki ne."
Tsarin doka a tsarin dimokuradiyya kuma yana nufin bin diddigin zababbun jami'ai. Kuma a nan babu shakka zanga-zangar da ta fi daukar hankali bayan shekaru hudu na yaki da mamayar kasar ita ce gazawar dimokuradiyyar Anglo-Amurka wajen daukar nauyin wadanda ke da alhakin yakin da kuma wahalhalun da aka yi wa al'ummar Iraki.
Wannan gazawar tana da ban mamaki ganin yadda ake ci gaba da samun shaidun da ke nuna cewa gwamnatin Bush da ta Blair sun yaudari jama'arsu, tare da hada baki wajen gudanar da yaki ba bisa ka'ida ba, kuma mai yiwuwa ne ke da alhakin aikata laifukan yaki.
Tasirin zanga-zangar gabaɗaya ya kasance ɗaya daga cikin girman kai na daular: maɗaukaki amma rashin cancantar ƙwaƙƙwaran yaƙin mulkin mallaka wanda ba za a iya cin nasara ba, ba zai iya kawar da juriya ga aikin sa ba, keta dokokin ƙasa da ƙasa, da take haƙƙin ɗan adam gabaɗaya, yayin da suke yin ƙira game da haɓaka dimokuradiyya.
Farfesa Adel Safty shine Mashawarcin Farfesa na Ziyarci a Cibiyar Harkokin Gudanar da Jama'a ta Siberian, Novosibirsk, Rasha. Sabon littafinsa mai suna Leadership and Democracy, an buga shi a New York.
ZNetwork ana samun kuɗi ta hanyar karimcin masu karatun sa.
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