Yanzu ya bayyana cewa fadar White House ta ba da amincewarta ta farko don yaki da Iraki wani lokaci da suka wuce, tun kafin Shugaba Bush ya furta kalamansa na "axis of mugunta" a cikin Fabrairu 2002. A lokacin bazara na 2002, Babban Kwamandan Babban kwamandan Amurka (CENTCOM), Janar Tommy R. Franks, ya samu ci gaba sosai a farkon shirye-shiryen yaki, kuma yana ganawa akai-akai tare da manyan jami'an Pentagon a Washington don tsara ainihin shirin kai hari. Ya zuwa wannan lokaci, manyan jami'an Amurka suna ganawa da shugabannin sojoji da na gwamnati a kasashen yankin gabas ta tsakiya masu abokantaka don samun izinin tura sojojin Amurka a yankinsu da nufin kai wa Iraki hari.
Amma wannan shine lokacin da Pentagon ta cikin kokawa kan lokaci da dabaru suka taso. Yawancin manyan jami'ai a Washington, karkashin jagorancin Sakataren Tsaro Donald Rumsfeld da Mataimakin Sakataren Tsaro Paul Wolfowitz, sun goyi bayan wani sabon shiri na kai hari wanda zai bukaci karamin sojojin mamaye na kusan 50,000-75,000 na sojojin Amurka. Wannan shiri, wanda aka kera akan yakin Afghanistan, da ya dogara ne kan amfani da karfin iskan Amurka mai yawa hade da yawan amfani da Dakarun Musamman na Amurka da sojojin "wakilan" wadanda suka kunshi Kurdawa da 'yan Shi'a masu adawa da Hussaini. Wannan shirin ya fi jan hankali ga jami'an Gwamnati da dama domin za a iya aiwatar da shi cikin sauri, a farkon faduwar shekara ta 2002, don haka rage haɗarin diflomasiyya na duniya da zanga-zangar cikin gida za su iya kafa duk wani shinge na harin Amurka.
Shirin "Afganistan Redux" ya yi adawa da shi, duk da haka, da yawa daga cikin manyan hafsoshin soja - rashin jin daɗi daga farkon ra'ayin mamaye Iraki da mamaye Bagadaza - wanda ya ji tsoro fiye da ƙananan sojojin Amurka za su iya cinyewa ta hanyar ƙungiyoyin makamai na Iraqi. A maimakon haka, sun nemi wani shiri na masu ra'ayin mazan jiya, wanda ya hada da tura sojojin Amurka kusan 200,000 na yaki, wadanda ke samun goyon bayan manyan jiragen ruwa da jiragen sama. Wannan shirin, wani lokaci ana kiransa "Desert Storm Lite," zai buƙaci ƙarin watanni da yawa don aiwatarwa, yana tura ranar farawa na yaƙi zuwa Fabrairu 2003.
A duk lokacin bazarar da ya gabata, manyan jami’an Gwamnati sun yi yaƙi kan wanne daga cikin waɗannan tsare-tsare (ko bambancinsa) ya kamata a amince da su. A gefe guda a cikin wannan muhawarar akwai Gudanarwa "chickenhawks" (wanda ake kira saboda sun kauce wa aikin soja a tsawon lokacin da suke aiki) kamar Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, da Douglas Feith (Mataimakin Sakataren Tsaro don Siyasa); a daya bangaren kuma akwai hafsoshin soja na aiki, karkashin jagorancin Janar Franks na CENTCOM. A cewar wasu rahotanni, an mayar da Franks akai-akai zuwa hedkwatarsa da ke Florida don sake fasalin shirin harin saboda an yi la'akari da shawarwarinsa masu ra'ayin mazan jiya (watau a hankali) daga kaji a Washington.
Daga abin da za a iya tantancewa a yanzu, bisa ga dukkan alamu a karshe shugaba Bush ya yanke shawara kan wane shiri ne daga cikin wadannan mamayar a karshen watan Agusta ko kuma a farkon watan Satumba. Mai yiyuwa ne saboda tsoron rugujewar siyasa na bala'i a fagen fama, idan sojojin Amurka masu karamin karfi suka tunkari sojojin Iraki masu dauke da makamai, Bush ya zabi wani tsari mai ra'ayin mazan jiya wanda Tommy Franks ke so. A wannan lokacin, an fara kidayar yaki da gaske yayin da ake shirye-shiryen tura wasu sojojin yakin Amurka kusan 200,000 zuwa Gabas ta Tsakiya.
Amma duk yadda ’yan kajin suka yi sha’awar zuwa yaki, ba zai yiwu a kwashe dakaru 200,000 da duk kayan aikinsu zuwa fagen daga mai nisan mil 8,000 a cikin dare ba. Yana ɗaukar lokaci: watanni shida aƙalla. Don haka, lokacin da Shugaba Bush ya ba da ci gaba a ƙarshen Agusta, farkon lokacin fara harin ta atomatik ya zama ƙarshen Fabrairu ko farkon Maris na 2003, wasu makonni biyu zuwa uku daga yanzu. Don haka, tun daga farkon Satumba, kowa da kowa a Washington ya san cewa yakin zai barke wani lokaci a kusa da Maris 1st, ba ko ɗaukar ƴan kwanaki.
Ya kasance kawai bayan An yanke shawarar cewa shugaba Bush ya je Majalisar Dinkin Duniya a New York inda ya nemi a yi kokarin kwance damarar Saddam Hussein ta hanyar daukar matakin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya. Domin dakarunsa ba za su kasance a shirye su sake kai hare-hare na wasu watanni shida ba, Bush ya kammala da cewa ba shi da wani abin da zai rasa ta hanyar ba Majalisar Dinkin Duniya karin lokaci don daukar mataki, ko da yake ya yi imanin cewa matakin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ba shi da ma'ana. A lokaci guda kuma, zuwa New York da neman matakin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ya ba shi damar yin shiru ga masu sukar cikin gida (ciki har da wasu manyan 'yan Republican) wadanda suke ganin cewa goyon bayan kasa da kasa ya zama dole don ba da wani matakin cancanta ga harin Amurka da aka shirya.
Duk a fakar da ta gabata, ga dukkan alamu jami'an diflomasiyyar Amurka karkashin jagorancin sakataren harkokin wajen Amurka Colin Powell na cikin bakin ciki saboda tafiyar hawainiyar da ake yi a kwamitin sulhu na MDD. Amma yayin da babu shakka cewa Powell da gaske ya nemi goyon bayan kasa da kasa don harin, bai taba damuwa da saurin abubuwan da ke faruwa ba kamar yadda ya bayyana saboda ya san cewa fada ba zai iya fara ba har sai Fabrairu 2003, a farkon. Sai dai a yanzu, da fara yaƙi amma makonni masu zuwa, da gaske Powell ya damu sosai game da ɗan lokaci na aikin diflomasiyya, da alama, don samun ƙuduri na biyu na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya wanda ya ba da izinin yin amfani da karfi kafin sojojin su fara kai hari.
A bayyane yake, ci gaba da shirye-shiryen yakin Amurka ne ba yanayin siyasa a Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ba ne ya tsara dabarun Gudanarwa a cikin 'yan watannin da suka gabata. Har ya zuwa yanzu, Fadar White House ta sami damar ɓoye wannan gaskiyar saboda idanu da yawa sun mai da hankali kan abubuwan da ke faruwa a New York. Da zarar fadan ya fara, duk da haka, zagon kasa da yaudarar dabarun Amurka za su bayyana nan da nan, suna kara juya ra'ayin duniya kan Amurka.
Michael T. Klare farfesa ne a fannin zaman lafiya da nazarin tsaro na duniya a Kwalejin Hampshire da ke Amherst, Mass., kuma marubucin littafin Yaƙe-yaƙe na Albarkatu: Sabon Yanayin Rikicin Duniya (Littafin Owl / Henry Holt).
[Wannan labarin ya fara bayyana www.tomdispatch.com, Shafin yanar gizo na Cibiyar Nation, wanda ke ba da ci gaba ta hanyoyi daban-daban, labarai da ra'ayi daga Tom Engelhardt, editan dogon lokaci a wallafe-wallafe kuma marubucin Ƙarshen Nasara Al'adu.]
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